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Bagovino Method

  • #481
  • Sep 6, 2006 3:18pm Sep 6, 2006 3:18pm
Quoting MaXeY
can u explain why Long @ 1.2775 ? FIB levels ?
I don't KNOW it either, but I can try to guess. I assume he saw the Trendline hold as it was tested twice on hourly and held both times. News was due though, the beige book, which turned out dollar bearish, which was expected though, so no huge reaction I guess...hasn't been a huge event last time it happened too I think...keep in mind RSI was under 50 at the time and still is.

Price for EUR/USD has a barrier at the .786 fib at 1.2817 here, if that goes then RSI 50 line should also break and the next hourly close would cross the EMAs. I'm not very bearish on the dollar after today though...still expecting a bit downside for the GBP/USD but heck, I could be wrong...

Haven't properly looked at EURUSD yet to be honest, I just know that swissy faces support at 1.2320-40 and this roughly corresponds to a former euro resistance around 1.2840 I think...not sure, haven't looked much at euro lately to be honest, was learning swissy...

BEB=bearish bar *waves to raczekfx* He be down wi' da bar chart slang


Here's the trendline I meant:
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #482
  • Sep 6, 2006 3:29pm Sep 6, 2006 3:29pm
Bearish Bar on your chart.
Quoting brainjt
thx for answer- what is BEB please
Bj
  • #483
  • Sep 6, 2006 7:35pm Sep 6, 2006 7:35pm
Quoting raczekfx
Bearish Bar on your chart.
i thought it was bearish bitchｴa :
  • #484
  • Sep 6, 2006 8:39pm Sep 6, 2006 8:39pm
Looking to long AUD/USD, news just came out on AUD looks good to strengthen the currency. 5/12 crossing and RSI heading up. Been bouncing on the vegas tunnel for 8 hours or so. Also on hourly charts there is support at about .7654 (was previous resistance). Does it look good to anybody else?
Cadillac Pippin
  • #485
  • Sep 6, 2006 8:41pm Sep 6, 2006 8:41pm
Quoting merlin
got more complaints about this post.

bagovino, i said earlier that i dont want to mod this thread any further. but here i am again. this is your last strike dude, one more post like this an your outta here. you do not own this thread, it is open to the public, and they can comment in it as long as they follow rule #1, which seekinglight has been doing.

make peace, or peace out!
I have been very busy. I apologize for this. If this post is followed like it should be and this thread is like it should be, I will start reading it again. I will start posting again when I have the chance.
JOHN 3:16
  • #486
  • Sep 6, 2006 8:55pm Sep 6, 2006 8:55pm
i am also looking to long for aud/usd, i was just waiting for rsi to go above 50 ln...



Quoting colnc
Looking to long AUD/USD, news just came out on AUD looks good to strengthen the currency. 5/12 crossing and RSI heading up. Been bouncing on the vegas tunnel for 8 hours or so. Also on hourly charts there is support at about .7654 (was previous resistance). Does it look good to anybody else?
  • #487
  • Sep 6, 2006 9:56pm Sep 6, 2006 9:56pm
Still waiting on the AUD/USD. In the Vegas docs. he says that when the price and the 12 EMA are at the "TUNNEL" the move will be a very strong one, both have been there for a couple of hours, hopefully we will see a move before too long, one way or the other, I thought the news earlier would be enough to lift the price but apparently not. Keep your eye on this one.
Cadillac Pippin
  • #488
  • Sep 6, 2006 9:59pm Sep 6, 2006 9:59pm
Maxey,

Went long on Euro based on Fibs. Like I said.... If you get Fibonacci trading down you dont need anything but the charts. I use the Bago system to confirm after I'm already in the move to see if I'm going to stay in it.

52 pips profit so far!


Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #489
  • Sep 6, 2006 10:08pm Sep 6, 2006 10:08pm
Bags,
which fib numbers are you using? Vegas?
Thanks
Cadillac Pippin
  • #490
  • Sep 6, 2006 10:12pm Sep 6, 2006 10:12pm
hey bagovino, how do you use the fibonacci? i have been using the method with the charts... can you show me a site when i learn more about this fibonacci trading? thanks




Quoting bagovino
Maxey,

Went long on Euro based on Fibs. Like I said.... If you get Fibonacci trading down you d
ont need anything but the charts. I use the Bago system to confirm after I'm already in the move to see if I'm going to stay in it.

52 pips profit so far!


Bagovino
  • #491
  • Sep 7, 2006 12:59am Sep 7, 2006 12:59am
Hi bago , can you show how you plot fib lines on the charts or how you came
the numbers base on the prices , PLEASE , I now I'm very new to this sistem
and I use to trade only base on presure charts but I like very much this sytem.
thank you in advance.
  • #492
  • Sep 7, 2006 1:09am Sep 7, 2006 1:09am
OK...

Here are a few Fibonacci secrets.... I dont really use the Vegas Fib line program. I draw my own. The system is VERY DISCRETIONARY, but once you get it, the sky's the limit. You can forcast moves way before they happen... Just as I did on my last Euro call.

So... First go to the weekly chart... Draw a fib from the last lowest low to highest high or vice versa in a bear market. The 2 lines price is inbetween are major long term support/resistance/targets. Next go to the 4 hr and do the same. This is a very important time frame as it gives the mid term sentiment of the market which we trade. Last.... Do the same on the 1 hr chart. The 1 hr needs to be updated with each market move.

Now... What do the lines mean?

38% is a weak line. If price hits and bounces back it shows a continuation of the current price direction.

50% might bounce on an intraday chart, but not a major line.

61% The most important and useful fib line!!!! It's a key break point or bounce in the market. It's an optimal place to get into a longer term trend trade. Look for the bounce or break of it, then place your trade in that direction.

I know this is alot of info at once, so read it a few times. It takes a few weeks of practice, but you'll get it. Focus on 1 currency pair and master it with the fibs. You will gain a feel for the currency which will enable you to trade it with huge success!!!

I hope this post improves your current trading situation!

Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #493
  • Sep 7, 2006 1:31am Sep 7, 2006 1:31am
Hi Bagovino,

Thank you for sharing this. Would you please attach the chart from which you determined your entry point based on the fib lines? Even though I understand what you were saying, I alwasy have difficulty choosing the right highs/lows from which the fib lines are determined.

Much appreciated!

aha


Quoting bagovino
OK...

Here are a few Fibonacci secrets.... I dont really use the Vegas Fib line program. I draw my own. The system is VERY DISCRETIONARY, but once you get it, the sky's the limit. You can forcast moves way before they happen... Just as I did on my last Euro call.

So... First go to the weekly chart... Draw a fib from the last lowest low to highest high or vice versa in a bear market. The 2 lines price is inbetween are major long term support/resistance/targets. Next go to the 4 hr and do the same. This is a very important time frame as it gives the mid term sentiment of the market which we trade. Last.... Do the same on the 1 hr chart. The 1 hr needs to be updated with each market move.

Now... What do the lines mean?

38% is a weak line. If price hits and bounces back it shows a continuation of the current price direction.

50% might bounce on an intraday chart, but not a major line.

61% The most important and useful fib line!!!! It's a key break point or bounce in the market. It's an optimal place to get into a longer term trend trade. Look for the bounce or break of it, then place your trade in that direction.

I know this is alot of info at once, so read it a few times. It takes a few weeks of practice, but you'll get it. Focus on 1 currency pair and master it with the fibs. You will gain a feel for the currency which will enable you to trade it with huge success!!!

I hope this post improves your current trading situation!

Bagovino
Target: Trading naked.
  • #494
  • Sep 7, 2006 2:17am Sep 7, 2006 2:17am
Sure... Here you go!

B.
Attached Image
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #495
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:26am Sep 7, 2006 3:26am
Today signals:

1- RE Entry short Signal on AUD/USD @ 0.7660
Exit @ 0.7628

+32
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...Mﾇ者問ぎﾂ･.
  • #496
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:32am Sep 7, 2006 3:32am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi Art,

certainly. You already posted the right chart and signals, maybe I just wasn't clear enough. The long happened at 1.2827 close, then things moved back down. Now the RSI returned to under 50, then the EMA's crossed again. All of this always looking at the bars on close.
This happened at 1.2814, hence me saying "you lose 13 pips+spread" if you had just closed and reversed, as 1.2827-1.2814 = 13 pips.
You posted the right chart
I posted the short signal with the two other charts a page or two ago.

All I tried to say was that once the signal for the short was made at 1.2814 you should have closed the long if you had it and reversed to take the short signal...it moved down 44 pips after that signal.

This is finally a good example of the "weak spots" of the system. You can get whiplashes like these if you aren't careful, but in this case nothing much happened if you used proper stop management and discretion/reacted on it.

This is why you need to know your surroundings, use tight stops (in my opinion) and exercise caution...also it's a good idea to adjust stops and take profit at probable areas of resistance like posted in the gifs...keep in mind, this is an ultra-conservative approach, your appetite for risk might vary a lot to mine.

Also if you find some setups which need a stop over 30 pips in order to work out but then move a lot(a multiple of those 30 or at least over 30), please post a chart, it would be interesting to analyze it.

I prefer to wait for new setups to occur and risk getting stopped out for no loss after having moved far enough and taking small profit already, rather than allowing a profitable position go against me after it has been +40 at some point, only because I kept hoping it would turn around again and resume in my favor. Hope is emotion, trading with emotion usually loses money.
This is my experience at least.

Hope this helped.
I have been using 2 pips above High of Signal Bar when going Long and 2 pips below Low of Signal Bar when going Short as entry points. I know this leaves a few pips on the table but it does prevent whipsaws. In addition to the signals from the indicators, I am using the colour of the candle as a filter - Green for Long and Red for Short - ie if the indicators say Long and the signal bar is Red, I don't enter. I wait for the next bar.
Does anyone else have any views on this.

cc
  • #497
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:33am Sep 7, 2006 3:33am
EUR/USD Short signal @1.2798

Lets watch it !
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...Mﾇ者問ぎﾂ･.
  • #498
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:14am Sep 7, 2006 4:14am
Here is the chart of NZD/USD. I thought I had a good entry (yellow crosses on the chart). Red cross is where I went long. Red-orange line is my mental stop.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

Obviously something was wrong and that something is that market is ranging. So, to avoid flats I add lines 40 and 60 to RSI. They were not on my chart before. <o></o>

I think this was mentioned in Sidus thread.

Click on image to enlarge.
http://e.foto.radikal.ru/0609/07ef9db13a7ct.jpg
  • #499
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:57am Sep 7, 2006 4:57am
Chart should explain it...hope it's large enough....

There were two valid signals but I didn't take the long one due to .6500 res, took the short one for a gamble since downside looked good had we breached, we did not however. Took profit at .6466 after entering at .6471 for +5 and moved stop down slightly to reduce risk and keep losses small.
Was a clear gamble on an early entry for a breakout which didn't happen.

This again shows that a valid RSI and EMA cross signal alone isn't always enough...railroad EMAs were both times cabled/tight and good, too, but it's all about the s/r and fibs...
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #500
  • Sep 7, 2006 5:22am Sep 7, 2006 5:22am
Thanks again, Bago. I see the double bottom at 1.2775 area, where you labeled a 61% bounce long. But the closest 61.8% line is at around 1.2785. which has been broken instead of bouncing from. Am I missing something here?



Quoting bagovino
Sure... Here you go!

B.
Target: Trading naked.
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