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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,401
  • Feb 20, 2017 8:36am Feb 20, 2017 8:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} If the market went up, sideways and then up again it wasn't DIST, it was reaccumulation.... unless the next move up was only a trap mark-up to sucker in more weak longs. But if the move up was an actual trending move (HH, HL etc...) then it was reaccumulation which you can see an example on the picture you posted. And yes VSA is tougher during Syndey / Asia markets... works best usually during London and NY sessions due to increased activity.
In ideal vsa,
accumulation -- distribution -- accumulation -- distribution

however,
many times ,
accumulation -- accumulation -- accumulation -- ....

how do we know whether next phase going to be accumulation or distribution ?
  • #28,402
  • Feb 20, 2017 8:44am Feb 20, 2017 8:44am
Quoting paogeh
{quote} In ideal vsa, accumulation -- distribution -- accumulation -- distribution however, many times , accumulation -- accumulation -- accumulation -- .... how do we know whether next phase going to be accumulation or distribution ?
Watch the highest volume bars (effort bars)and see what the result of that effort was. If we see high volume up bars into previous supply and then we see ND we can safely assess that we just witnessed DIST. If we see high volume up bars push through previous supply and then see successful testing we can safely assess that we saw re-ACC.

The high volume bars are the key to our road map of what the SM are up to... just as important however is what comes after the high volume...

Also what makes ideal VSA ACC-DIST-ACC-DIST?

That would signal a ranging market to me... trending markets where big running pips can be made would be ACC - up move - re-ACC - up move, small DIST (many time caused by profit taking or when SM want to mark down the market to buy more from lower prices and to create sucker weak holding positions), retrace, ACC - up move and so on...

This is just my 2 cents and how I view things. I am by no means a VSA expert as I trade my own bastardised version of it...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,403
  • Feb 20, 2017 8:57am Feb 20, 2017 8:57am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Watch the highest volume bars (effort bars)and see what the result of that effort was. If we see high volume up bars into previous supply and then we see ND we can safely assess that we just witnessed DIST. If we see high volume up bars push through previous supply and then see successful testing we can safely assess that we saw re-ACC. The high volume bars are the key to our road map of what the SM are up to... just as important however is what comes after the high volume... Also what makes ideal VSA ACC-DIST-ACC-DIST? That would signal...


Thank you pres78,

regarding high volume, is quite subjective
attached oanda eurusd 4h chart , with volume
as we can see,during Asian session, the low volume would mes up/confuse analysis of vsa,
since we need low.high volume to determine sm operation

and some times trump speaks, it caused the market to rocket/tank immediately .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.png Size: 273 KB
  • #28,404
  • Feb 20, 2017 9:03am Feb 20, 2017 9:03am
Quoting paogeh
{quote} Thank you pres78, regarding high volume, is quite subjective attached oanda eurusd 4h chart , with volume as we can see,during Asian session, the low volume would mes up/confuse analysis of vsa, since we need low.high volume to determine sm operation and some times trump speaks, it caused the market to rocket/tank immediately . {image}
Finding the volume spikes is only subjective if you're trying to compare your volume to another trader or broker. Your broker would have high volume spikes on bars (easier seen on the 1hr chart than 4 hr chart - also 4 hr charts are hard to trade if you aren't using a broker that has NY close charts). This will typically occur at/around London and NY opens and also during high impact (red on FF news) news or speeches (as your reference to Trump). These are the bars we want to focus on as that is our sign SM was actively building positions... the result of which we want to trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,405
  • Feb 20, 2017 9:06am Feb 20, 2017 9:06am
low volume day.. monday and US bank holiday damn!!
  • #28,406
  • Feb 20, 2017 9:16am Feb 20, 2017 9:16am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Finding the volume spikes is only subjective if you're trying to compare your volume to another trader or broker. Your broker would have high volume spikes on bars (easier seen on the 1hr chart than 4 hr chart - also 4 hr charts are hard to trade if you aren't using a broker that has NY close charts). This will typically occur at/around London and NY opens and also during high impact (red on FF news) news or speeches (as your reference to Trump). These are the bars we want to focus on as that is our sign SM was actively building positions......
Didn't know that New York close time affect vsa

by the way, vsa came out from wycoff ,
for forex, we should follow who one ?

vsa seem to apply more to stock .....

And, with vsa deadly accuracy .....
those applied such method , would grow the accounts rapidly!
and preety soon, might over take wealthy traders such as George soros, but this doesn't seem to be the case ....
  • #28,407
  • Feb 20, 2017 9:34am Feb 20, 2017 9:34am
Quoting paogeh
{quote} Didn't know that New York close time affect vsa by the way, vsa came out from wycoff , for forex, we should follow who one ? vsa seem to apply more to stock ..... And, with vsa deadly accuracy ..... those applied such method , would grow the accounts rapidly! and preety soon, might over take wealthy traders such as George soros, but this doesn't seem to be the case ....
Sure it does as 4hr charts can look very different from broker to broker based on what 4 hourly bars are included in it. So yes that can hugely impact trading VSA on a 4hr chart. Even daily charts can be affected based on when the open and close time is... then we have the crappy Sunday candles that some brokers still use which really mess things up. I ONLY use NY close charts for this very reason.

I don't trade Wycoff and know very little about it. Why does VSA apply more to stocks? Personally, I use it for Forex, CFD's and stocks so I can say it works for all 3. It also works for futures as I know traders using it for that product as well. Actually, I find stocks harder to trade using VSA due to shorter trading times and always having to deal with gaps...

I have no idea what you are saying about deadly accuracy. Are you trying to convince me or yourself that VSA doesn't work or isn't right for you? I am not really sure.

VSA like any trading method is only as good as the trader using it. For every method out there you will find a few traders having great success and most that aren't. This has nothing to do with the method per say it all comes down to the trader. I could teach my exact method to 10 traders and 9 of them would fail because of either my method wasn't the right method for their personality OR trading isn't right for their personality.

Most traders that fail, fail because of their mental approach to trading. Even if they are given the simplest, most rule-based (so they don't have to think) method in trading they will end up failing because they lack the proper mental discipline to be a trader.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,408
  • Feb 20, 2017 5:23pm Feb 20, 2017 5:23pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} After multiple rejections from 121 I set a pending short at the end of the trading day yesterday. Triggered today so I now have two Daily trades open on EURJPY. Hoping we get a new LL on this swing down after just placing a LH. Leaving SL and position sizes alone for now. Will trail and may take some partial profits when the time is right. {image}
Quiet day with the US bank holiday so the ND may not trigger but I'm setting a pending to enter a third short if the low does break. See what happens from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYiDaily.png Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,409
  • Feb 21, 2017 9:11pm Feb 21, 2017 9:11pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Sure it does as 4hr charts can look very different from broker to broker based on what 4 hourly bars are included in it. So yes that can hugely impact trading VSA on a 4hr chart. Even daily charts can be affected based on when the open and close time is... then we have the crappy Sunday candles that some brokers still use which really mess things up. I ONLY use NY close charts for this very reason. I don't trade Wycoff and know very little about it. Why does VSA apply more to stocks? Personally, I use it for Forex, CFD's and stocks so I...
Hi Pres78,

i was asking VSA was to track SM activity , and if we manage to follow them, most of the trades would result in profit .
Does this really happen ?

if yes, we could grow our account pretty fast .
  • #28,410
  • Feb 21, 2017 10:10pm Feb 21, 2017 10:10pm
Quoting pres78
Watch the highest volume bars (effort bars)and see what the result of that effort was.

Hi pres!

the below chart is 1h chart, we can see the highest volume bar & the London opening bar, that's all the info I'm going to provide, can you tell me how you would read that highest volume bar supposing it is in real time? is that effort on that highest volume bar bullish or bearish? don't get me wrong.

if anyone else would like to chip in, welcome!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.jpg Size: 68 KB
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,411
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:57am Feb 22, 2017 4:57am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} Hi pres! the below chart is 1h chart, we can see the highest volume bar & the London opening bar, that's all the info I'm going to provide, can you tell me how you would read that highest volume bar supposing it is in real time? is that effort on that highest volume bar bullish or bearish? don't get me wrong. if anyone else would like to chip in, welcome! {image}
Well if LO was the bar you marked then the highest volume bar must have been an afternoon speech as it was 2PM EST. I wouldn't make any call on bulls or bears until the high or low was taken out and would be looking to trade that zone the next day at LO... All 3 high volume bars that day were up bars so unless there is an old high to the left I can't see then it seems like we might be seeing sellers but too hard to tell at this point in time with the info on the chart.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,412
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:59am Feb 22, 2017 4:59am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Quiet day with the US bank holiday so the ND may not trigger but I'm setting a pending to enter a third short if the low does break. See what happens from here. {image}
Triggered yesterday... took off today.

Awesome...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYiDaily.png Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,413
  • Feb 22, 2017 6:58am Feb 22, 2017 6:58am
Quoting paogeh
{quote} Hi Pres78, i was asking VSA was to track SM activity , and if we manage to follow them, most of the trades would result in profit . Does this really happen ? if yes, we could grow our account pretty fast .
Yes VSA is based on tracking the SM... Of course if we manage to get it right and follow them to the right side we should profit.

Does this really happen? Not for most. Why?

  1. Because they don't' really take the time to learn to read the charts properly and expect to trade blindly that high volume up bars = sellers etc...
  2. Greed
  3. Lack of patience
  4. Lack of discipline
  5. Poor money management
  6. No trading/business plan
  7. Treat trading like gambling
  8. Trade for revenge after a loss

Trading in a business sense isn't about growing our accounts fast. That is a gambler's mentality. Trading successfully is about finding your edge and trading it consistently and wisely to grow your account consistently over time taking advantage of compounding. You need to ask yourself if your goal to trade full time and live off your trading or work full-time and trade part time where your trading funds can be used as extra cash for trips and other stuff you might not afford.

I trade part time and use a few my trading funds each year to pay off bills, go on trips and to make larger purchases when required. My personal main goal for my trading account is long term compounding growth so I can retire early and enjoy my life living off a combination of my work retirement funds and my trading proceeds. I plan of continuing to trade and compound my funds even after I "retire".

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,414
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:01am Feb 22, 2017 7:01am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Triggered yesterday... took off today. Awesome... {image}
EURJPY is currently battling around at the low of the crazy wide spread bar from Dec 5th, 2016 bar. Strange though that despite it's wide range the volume was not crazy high...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,415
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:33am Feb 22, 2017 7:33am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes VSA is based on tracking the SM... Of course if we manage to get it right and follow them to the right side we should profit. Does this really happen? Not for most. Why? Because they don't' really take the time to learn to read the charts properly and expect to trade blindly that high volume up bars = sellers etc... Greed Lack of patience Lack of discipline Poor money management No trading/business plan Treat trading like gambling Trade for revenge after a loss Trading in a business sense isn't about growing our accounts fast. That is...
When I retire, I plan to move to Canada, like many millionaires do
  • #28,416
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:42am Feb 22, 2017 7:42am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} When I retire, I plan to move to Canada, like many millionaires do
Hello, Aldo my old friend... we would welcome you and your millions with open arms!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,417
  • Feb 22, 2017 8:56am Feb 22, 2017 8:56am
EURJPY seeing some nice PA at the L of the LO bar (currently still the highest volume today).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,418
  • Edited 10:12am Feb 22, 2017 9:56am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting pres78
EURJPY seeing some nice PA at the L of the LO bar (currently still the highest volume today).
OOH BABY Gotta love the unscheduled news...

Frances Bayrou Backs Macron; Says Will Not Stand In Pres. Election - RTRS
From @Livesquawk

Messing with the EURO right now. When it comes to the news though we still need to see the reaction after the initial spike. It is not always as it first seems.

We will see how this plays out today and then I will make some decisions on my EURJPY shorts. This is where trade management and risk management comes into play. There are so many outside factors that come into play in currency trading. If we are not managing things correctly a Swiss bank move or other unscheduled news/world events can wipe us right out.

That's going to be one nice UHV zone to trade tomorrow, though!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,419
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:10am Feb 22, 2017 10:10am
Quoting pres78
{quote} OOH BABY Gotta love the unscheduled news... Frances Bayrou Backs Macron; Says Will Not Stand In Pres. Election - RTRS From @Livesquawk Messing with the EURO right now. When it comes to new though we still need to see the reaction after the initial spike. It is not always as it first seems. We will see how this plays out today and then I will make some decisions on my EURJPY shorts. This is where trade management and risk management comes into play. There are so many outside...
true.. crazy spike! wasn't expecting that

I was bearish biased on EU for today.. but ill wait to see how this UHV zone develop, I think ill just sit and watch for now
  • #28,420
  • Feb 23, 2017 1:47am Feb 23, 2017 1:47am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes VSA is based on tracking the SM... Of course if we manage to get it right and follow them to the right side we should profit. Does this really happen? Not for most. Why? Because they don't' really take the time to learn to read the charts properly and expect to trade blindly that high volume up bars = sellers etc... Greed Lack of patience Lack of discipline Poor money management No trading/business plan Treat trading like gambling Trade for revenge after a loss Trading in a business sense isn't about growing our accounts fast. That is...

Forgot to add,
do SM lose $$$ ?
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