How "long" an impact does news have? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What does "Tentative" mean in the news??? 5 replies

Broker Challenge "NDD/STP" vs. True "ECN" and "Mkt Mkr" broker talk 46 replies

Dealing with "Invalid Price", "Requote", "Server Busy" in MT4 3 replies

Is it another "good news is bad news" day? 8 replies

How long does it takes a news to be released? 4 replies

How "long" an impact does news have?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 25, 2014 8:50am Nov 25, 2014 8:50am
Ladies/Gents good morning from Canada! I'd like to discuss the following:
Approximately how "long" does Red impact news have the potential to create "large pip" moves on that currency pair before and after the release of said news? To be more specific, would one on average begin to expect large moves 60 minutes before? 15? and would that large move potential remain for 15 mins maybe a half hour after? The reason I ask this is I disable pending orders before and during the news to avoid spikes, If I could get the opinion of some senior members

I define "large pip" movement as a large spike, which may or may not cause a trend change, say 30 or more pips on EURUSD I would consider a large pip move
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #2
  • Nov 25, 2014 12:47pm Nov 25, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting Rparm
Ladies/Gents good morning from Canada! I'd like to discuss the following: Approximately how "long" does Red impact news have the potential to create "large pip" moves on that currency pair before and after the release of said news? To be more specific, would one on average begin to expect large moves 60 minutes before? 15? and would that large move potential remain for 15 mins maybe a half hour after? The reason I ask this is I disable pending orders before and during the news to avoid spikes, If I could get the opinion of some senior members...
No one knows. There is no defined time. It all depends on liquidity's interaction with order flow. This is where you should start as there are too many variables to consider i.e. was it priced in? Are there a lot of market participants on the wrong side who need to get out? Was it a surprise? Does the market even care about that news event? What are dealer inventories looking like? How many people are actually even buying or selling due to the event? Was it a really major event? Etc etc etc... Sentiment can last the day, days, week, or longer.
  • #3
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:28am Nov 26, 2014 12:28am
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} No one knows. There is no defined time. It all depends on liquidity's interaction with order flow. This is where you should start as there are too many variables to consider i.e. was it priced in? Are there a lot of market participants on the wrong side who need to get out? Was it a surprise? Does the market even care about that news event? What are dealer inventories looking like? How many people are actually even buying or selling due to the event? Was it a really major event? Etc etc etc... Sentiment can last the day, days, week, or longer....
dang... I'm trying to define movements during news to apply to my strategies. But alas, according to the voice in my head and your post it will be a difficult if not... impossible task. Thanks for the reply, I appreciate your insight!
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #4
  • Nov 27, 2014 11:02am Nov 27, 2014 11:02am
Quoting Rparm
{quote} dang... I'm trying to define movements during news to apply to my strategies. But alas, according to the voice in my head and your post it will be a difficult if not... impossible task. Thanks for the reply, I appreciate your insight!
Trust me, it's very possible to make tons of pips around news time. You just need to understand how to really trade the news and it's reaction. There's no sure way of knowing what will happen and how long it will last. The market is not rigid. It will do what it wants, when it wants. However, you can still get an idea of what is going on and capitalize on it. Once you get a good understanding of how the market works and it's participants strategies (not just retail, I mean FX dealers, hedge funds, etc.), you can make good money around those times. It takes the right knowledge and experience. I'm sure you know that if it was that easy to know how long an impact news would have, much more retail traders would be rich. Sadly (actually a good thing for good traders), the market is not that simple.

Just keep at it, you'll get it figured out. For me now, it takes less than a minute to look at the calendar, see what the event is and how important it really is. Then I play it once the number comes out, just watching price allows me to know when to get in and out. A good understanding of liquidity and order flow definitely helps with that.

An example: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post7887497

That was on Nov. 20th playing the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and some other little news releases that came out at 10AM. Definitely not simple
  • #5
  • Nov 27, 2014 11:24am Nov 27, 2014 11:24am
Good evenin all it is evening here now
News can effect markets befor and after the releasing time with varying degree depending on news it self
There is a say buy the rumor sell the fact so actually traders what ever they are tend to enter in faviour of excepted news until it is proven otherwise then getting in opposite direction
So what examples are for that we all remmber the vote in uk forba dependent part of it befor two weeks and how did the market moved for favourite of non dependent choice until the fact came out and it retraced
How do i trade news it is as same as the say says sell the rumoer buy thy the fact at news release
All have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #6
  • Nov 27, 2014 12:59pm Nov 27, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting Rparm
Ladies/Gents good morning from Canada! I'd like to discuss the following: Approximately how "long" does Red impact news have the potential to create "large pip" moves on that currency pair before and after the release of said news? To be more specific, would one on average begin to expect large moves 60 minutes before? 15? and would that large move potential remain for 15 mins maybe a half hour after? The reason I ask this is I disable pending orders before and during the news to avoid spikes, If I could get the opinion of some senior members...
It's really hard to define. Sometimes data is known before release and there's big demand or supply even 1 hour before news, for example today it looks that somebody knew about OPEC news 50min earlier (look at 1M USDCAD chart). This news will probably have impact on CAD for next day. Now it will move slowly, but at london open probably continuation will happen. Maybe good trade opportunity will turn up. This is exception, normally news that you are talking about impact on market 30-120min. Best regards!
  • #7
  • Nov 28, 2014 12:45am Nov 28, 2014 12:45am
Quoting insomniawawa
{quote} It's really hard to define. Sometimes data is known before release and there's big demand or supply even 1 hour before news, for example today it looks that somebody knew about OPEC news 50min earlier (look at 1M USDCAD chart). This news will probably have impact on CAD for next day. Now it will move slowly, but at london open probably continuation will happen. Maybe good trade opportunity will turn up. This is exception, normally news that you are talking about impact on market 30-120min. Best regards!
I agree it is hard to define =( Thanks for sharing your perspectives guys I appreciate it... I was hoping there would be a simpler way to define it, but your comments have confirmed my thoughts (its always nice to get input from other traders)... I might just research all past news: High Medium and Low impact, possibly even specific news events and then find the average amount of movement that occurs "X" minutes before and "X" minutes after, this will of course take sometime. Trying to avoid large spikes that take out stop losses is obviously important to many, including myself
Thanks again guys!
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #8
  • Nov 28, 2014 2:09am Nov 28, 2014 2:09am
Quoting Rparm
{quote} I agree it is hard to define =( Thanks for sharing your perspectives guys I appreciate it... I was hoping there would be a simpler way to define it, but your comments have confirmed my thoughts (its always nice to get input from other traders)... I might just research all past news: High Medium and Low impact, possibly even specific news events and then find the average amount of movement that occurs "X" minutes before and "X" minutes after, this will of course take sometime. Trying to avoid large spikes that take out stop losses is obviously...

Check cashbackforex.com, tab trading tools > economic impact analyzer. You have there all news for most important currencies and impact on market.

Best regards!
  • #9
  • Nov 28, 2014 2:14am Nov 28, 2014 2:14am
there is tool called Fibonacci Time Zones can give you some clue about the news impact after the news release.....
  • #10
  • Nov 28, 2014 3:17am Nov 28, 2014 3:17am
I would say it depends on the following

News event gauge - Low, moderate, high
what time - frame are you trading on ?
Support&Resistance - is the news event occurring at key points of S&R ?

My rule is not to trade, central bank (FED, ECB, BOJ) or NFP days and for most other news events I dont trade 30 mins before and I wait an half hour - too 1 hour after
EAs backtest arent that good unless they remove those events according to the DATA,
When you remove these days when doing EA testing, I found your probability increasing to over 80-90% with my strategies based on candle detection and areas of OB/OS with a volume zone oscillator, very simple strategy wait for VZO and candlestick pattern to form in either OB/OS areas
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #11
  • Nov 30, 2014 5:22pm Nov 30, 2014 5:22pm
I'm going with FXMasterSK

IT'S IMPOSSIBLE
But
There are certain news which could be classified to have very long term effect
for instance
OPE meeting
effect period: may be years
FED QE
effect period: months
ECB QE plan
effect period: months (and right now EURUSD still going lower and lower)

See?
It's depend on the "message" of the news
Understanding the news (I said it with long ssssssssssss, imply plural word instead of singular)
is the key
  • #12
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:51am Dec 8, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Rparm
Ladies/Gents good morning from Canada! I'd like to discuss the following: Approximately how "long" does Red impact news have the potential to create "large pip" moves on that currency pair before and after the release of said news? To be more specific, would one on average begin to expect large moves 60 minutes before? 15? and would that large move potential remain for 15 mins maybe a half hour after? The reason I ask this is I disable pending orders before and during the news to avoid spikes, If I could get the opinion of some senior members...
basically during monthly repports you can notice its 1h to 4 h impact
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #13
  • Feb 15, 2015 5:49am Feb 15, 2015 5:49am
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} No one knows. There is no defined time. It all depends on liquidity's interaction with order flow. This is where you should start as there are too many variables to consider i.e. was it priced in? Are there a lot of market participants on the wrong side who need to get out? Was it a surprise? Does the market even care about that news event? What are dealer inventories looking like? How many people are actually even buying or selling due to the event? Was it a really major event? Etc etc etc... Sentiment can last the day, days, week, or longer....

Good day...Greetings from my end. I have always not understood the concept of "traders pricing in on the market prior to news release". Please i would appreciate it if you help me out here.

1) Can you explain what "priced in" really is.
2) On what occasions are markets likely to be priced in?

Thank u and God bless.
  • #14
  • Feb 17, 2017 8:27am Feb 17, 2017 8:27am
How does News affect long term trading ? For instance we go long in daily time frame chart or 4 hour, there is red news almost everyday. Will it affect the trade ? If it does then that means we can't trade in longer time frames that easily, am I right ?
  • #15
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:24am Apr 16, 2017 9:24am
No specific answer there! Basically, Forex market is all about market context! Even, you may see high voltage news but no relevant movement on market! That’s the reason, why you need to have a combo trading knowledge here! I am not a blind trader, I believe on logic ad reality! In addition, I don’t have any specific plan, I just follow the offers that market provide me!
  • #16
  • Jun 17, 2017 4:59am Jun 17, 2017 4:59am
There is no specific answer! It depends on that particular news event, even you may sometimes there is no effect on market! In my trading I always select my entry and exit points according to my combo trading skill on technical and news analysis!
  • #17
  • Jun 17, 2017 5:49am Jun 17, 2017 5:49am
Quoting DarrenLehma
There is no specific answer! It depends on that particular news event, even you may sometimes there is no effect on market! In my trading I always select my entry and exit points according to my combo trading skill on technical and news analysis!
This.

NFP can change the direction for the day.
Brexit changed the direction since the vote was anounced, and a year later it is basically still controlling it.
Trump going in I think actually went up initially, but the dollar has been losing since.
Some news last week that I traded by accident lasted a few hours, with the next day news breaking the trendline upwards meaning it'll probably have effected the price for weeks.
  • #18
  • Oct 12, 2017 6:41am Oct 12, 2017 6:41am
Unfortunately I found your thread too late. However, before a year or two ago I performed some intervention analyses in order to determine the "average" reaction to the most important news events. However, it turned out that the impact can be quite different. I've interpreted this finding with the manipulation of big boys.
  • #19
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:37am Oct 24, 2017 4:37am
Big boys note the time and price when the news comes out. Then trade the break of it within 10 minutes.
  • #20
  • May 12, 2019 10:13am May 12, 2019 10:13am
1 day in the currency's nation's time roughly.
0 traders viewing now