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Best Currency Strength Meter and why?

  • #41
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:37am Feb 15, 2017 9:37am
Quoting JayRai
There are different researches indeed. Banks sell their orderbooks to commercial parties. But that info can be seen in certain orderbooks anyway (if you have access to it like bankers and institutions). I compare the positions to what the analists from those banks told earlier. That way i know for sure that the banks are still doing what their analists are seeing and sharing. Just for my own security to check that once in a while.
Thanks for the ongoing effort on giving us answers.

So efxplus gets his data directly from banks or from 3-d party sources?

"But that info can be seen in certain orderbooks anyway" -- did you compare data from different sources? if yes, ever saw difference between them?

For those, who is interested where screenshot from post #36 comes from, here's link: https://www.citibank.com.hk/global_d..._insight_e.pdf
  • #42
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:42am Feb 15, 2017 9:42am
Quoting JayRai
Trading is my business and i live from it. I subscribed to several services in the past, even the very expensive ones (Bloomberg and Reuters). But since the banks sell-side research is available for those who can pay it, i use that info only. I compared it with their own analyses. Can be found around the web as well like http://bankforecast.com/. That way i know the feed is working for me. And yes, they must have connections to the banks because they have to pay for the api-feeds. Through the week i check my charts of interests. Only...
JayRai,

You are originally short on EUR/USD and NFP comes negative and we use this up move/pullback to short again.

Because there is a possibility that NFP news could actually change the trend instead of a pullback which could translate into change of bank positions.

Once the NFP release is out, how long do you wait before you conclude that the bank positions haven't changed (or) particular time you give for the bank to change their positions?

Thanks
  • #43
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:44am Feb 15, 2017 9:44am
Yes, the datafeed comes directly from the banks. I did compare the data when i was still able to see the pool. But i do not have access to it anymore since i do not trade for a bank since a while. Therefor i find this service ideal. However, i still have connections and use it to compare.
  • #44
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:53am Feb 15, 2017 9:53am
Quoting JayRai
There are different researches indeed. Banks sell their orderbooks to commercial parties. But that info can be seen in certain orderbooks anyway (if you have access to it like bankers and institutions). I compare the positions to what the analists from those banks told earlier. That way i know for sure that the banks are still doing what their analists are seeing and sharing. Just for my own security to check that once in a while. bankforecast is just an example of how analists from different banks see the market. Better understanding is from the...
Hello JayRai,

In the above example of Net Positions:

Citi Bank-->Short on EUR/USD

JP Morgan-->Short on NZD/USD

To corroborate the above, do we use the CitiBank Research Report for Citi Bank position and JP Morgan Research Report for JP Morgan?

(or)

A single report(like the Citibank report containing analysis on major pairs) is sufficient?

Really appreciate your patience in answering the many questions...

Thanks a Lot Jay.
  • #45
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:55am Feb 15, 2017 9:55am
Quoting aaven
{quote} JayRai, You are originally short on EUR/USD and NFP comes negative and we use this up move/pullback to short again. Because there is a possibility that NFP news could actually change the trend instead of a pullback which could translate into change of bank positions. Once the NFP release is out, how long do you wait before you conclude that the bank positions haven't changed (or) particular time you give for the bank to change their positions? Thanks
Whenever a bank changes a position, i get notified. Then it is time to do some homework. But mostly banks open positions at very good levels. However, those levels aren't good enough for me since my pockets are not that deep. So that's why i search for good pullbacks with a level of exhaustion. I use the H4 timeframe to place orders. So when the NFP came out, i checked the next 4H candle if it reached a better entry price than my first position (only when nothing changed by the banks like SL or TP and pending orders)
  • #46
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:57am Feb 15, 2017 9:57am
Quoting JayRai
Yes, the datafeed comes directly from the banks. I did compare the data when i was still able to see the pool. But i do not have access to it anymore since i do not trade for a bank since a while. Therefor i find this service ideal. However, i still have connections and use it to compare.
Now that is the hell of the information. Thanks a lot.
  • #47
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:00am Feb 15, 2017 10:00am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hello JayRai, In the above example of Net Positions: Citi Bank-->Short on EUR/USD JP Morgan-->Short on NZD/USD To corroborate the above, do we use the CitiBank Research Report for Citi Bank position and JP Morgan Research Report for JP Morgan? (or) A single report(like the Citibank report containing analysis on major pairs) is sufficient? Really appreciate your patience in answering the many questions... Thanks a Lot Jay.
This i the most important thing.... I do not use 1 single report or position. I want to see that several banks do the same thing. So if there are 3 banks buying the kiwi against the greenback and one is selling, i consider the kiwi as stronger than the greenback. Then i see chances to sell EUR/NZD and buying the NZD/JPY for instance ;-)
Because EUR and JPY are weak. Please do not see this as trade recommendation! I use this as an example
  • #48
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:00am Feb 15, 2017 10:00am
Quoting JayRai
Yes, the datafeed comes directly from the banks. I did compare the data when i was still able to see the pool. But i do not have access to it anymore since i do not trade for a bank since a while. Therefor i find this service ideal. However, i still have connections and use it to compare.
Do you know other confirmed sources of such data?

Efxplus provides positions sizes?
  • #49
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:06am Feb 15, 2017 10:06am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hello JayRai, In the above example of Net Positions: Citi Bank-->Short on EUR/USD JP Morgan-->Short on NZD/USD To corroborate the above, do we use the CitiBank Research Report for Citi Bank position and JP Morgan Research Report for JP Morgan? (or) A single report(like the Citibank report containing analysis on major pairs) is sufficient? Really appreciate your patience in answering the many questions... Thanks a Lot Jay.
I presume that data table from post #15 goes from efxplus which has it all, so there are no other open positions.
  • #50
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:09am Feb 15, 2017 10:09am
Quoting Botan626
{quote} Do you know other confirmed sources of such data? Efxplus provides positions sizes?
Yes there are. Bloomberg terminal for instance. But you need to pay extra fee for datapool (all-in $2700 per month. Comes with a price)

And no, no position sizes. But the sizes are big enough to move a currency when opened or closed. See the screenshot i made on the positions from banks. Open a chart like the AUD/USD and draw SL, TP and order lines. Notice the levels? You can use them as s&r ;-)
And when a TP as taken by a bank on that level, most retail traders got stopped out because the liquidity moves in the opposite direction (supply/demand change). For most retails traders such a move isn't explainable other than that there must have been a big player that buys/sells. I keep an eye on those TP/SL levels. Always avoiding those levels. I am out earlier than the banks.
  • #51
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:10am Feb 15, 2017 10:10am
Quoting Botan626
{quote} I presume that data table from post #15 goes from efxplus which has it all, so there are no other open positions.
There are more positions open than those. i made a small collection to fit in the screenshot. Also, the pending orders aren't included for those pairs
  • #52
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:17am Feb 15, 2017 10:17am
Quoting JayRai
{quote} Yes there are. Bloomberg terminal for instance. But you need to pay extra fee for datapool (all-in $2700 per month. Comes with a price) And no, no position sizes. But the sizes are big enough to move a currency when opened or closed. See the screenshot i made on the positions from banks. Open a chart like the AUD/USD and draw SL, TP and order lines. Notice the levels? You can use them as s&r ;-) And when a TP as taken by a bank on that level, most retail traders got stopped out because the liquidity moves in the opposite direction (supply/demand...
It's good that just 2 days ago the same CitiBank opened sell position for EUR/USD, so we can watch it going live.

All banks publish their analysis openly or you look for it somewhere else?
  • #53
  • Edited 11:08am Feb 15, 2017 10:20am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting JayRai
{quote} There are more positions open than those. i made a small collection to fit in the screenshot. Also, the pending orders aren't included for those pairs
How banks deal with pending orders? For how long they can wait to pull the trigger?

Do they cancel them due to the updated analyses sometimes?


Is there info on open positions of hedge funds?
  • #54
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:40am Feb 15, 2017 10:40am
Quoting JayRai
{quote} This i the most important thing.... I do not use 1 single report or position. I want to see that several banks do the same thing. So if there are 3 banks buying the kiwi against the greenback and one is selling, i consider the kiwi as stronger than the greenback. Then i see chances to sell EUR/NZD and buying the NZD/JPY for instance ;-) Because EUR and JPY are weak. Please do not see this as trade recommendation! I use this as an example
Thanks JayRai for explaining the logic. So once we shortlist the pairs, for corroboration, do we use the same approach for analyst reports, i.e. several bank analysts advocating buying the kiwi against the USD?
  • #55
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:52pm Feb 15, 2017 8:52pm
Here's the best one. Surprisingly though, not many seem to know how to use it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: csm.png Size: 59 KB
mind over matter
  • #56
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:07pm Feb 15, 2017 9:07pm
Quoting kosmo
Here's the best one. Surprisingly though, not many seem to know how to use it... {image}
Kosmo,

EUR/USD-Up & GBP/USD-Up & AUD/USD-Up &NZD/USD-Up

USD/CHF-Down& USD/JPY-Down & USD/CAD-Down

So we determine USD is weak?

Could you please elaborate more on this? What's the minimum time frame you use for reference?

Thanks
  • #57
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:19pm Feb 15, 2017 9:19pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Kosmo, EUR/USD-Up & GBP/USD-Up & AUD/USD-Up &NZD/USD-Up USD/CHF-Down& USD/JPY-Down & USD/CAD-Down So we determine USD is weak? Could you please elaborate more on this? What's the minimum time frame you use for reference? Thanks
Homework (only up to page 8). Enjoy
mind over matter
  • #58
  • Feb 16, 2017 12:12am Feb 16, 2017 12:12am
Quoting kosmo
{quote} Homework (only up to page 8). Enjoy
Much appreciated Kosmo for showing the path to an unique way of looking at markets.
  • #59
  • Feb 16, 2017 9:02am Feb 16, 2017 9:02am
I am a bit overwhelmed by all of you that messaged me. Didn't expect it at all. But i must say that i am new at forexfactory and didn't knew what to expect from it. Just wanted to meet others, share some great ideas and/or share experiences. Also, the majority are retailtraders. These days i am one of you again ;-)
But with the experience as a fund manager (18 months), prop trader (13 months), investment banker (6 months).

I got such nice emails and positive reactions, thanks for the warm welcome! However, there was 1 message that wasn't that nice. Just wanted to say to that person (no name calling) that i am not claiming that my approach is the best or that i have no other reason to join forexfactory than to brag. I am sharing my approach with respect to all others. I am not better than you or others. There are many others that perform better than i do, no doubt.

Having said that... there are also a lot of traders that ask me to start a thread about the method how i trade, and how to do so yourself.
I do not want to waiste time from others and myself to start a meaningless thread. So i am interested... what do you think/want? Start a thread?
If so, hit the like button so i can decide what to do. If so, i will start it next week or so. At the moment i am heading out for a week so sorry if i didn't answer all your questions!
  • #60
  • Feb 16, 2017 9:50am Feb 16, 2017 9:50am
Quoting JayRai
I am a bit overwhelmed by all of you that messaged me. Didn't expect it at all. But i must say that i am new at forexfactory and didn't knew what to expect from it. Just wanted to meet others, share some great ideas and/or share experiences. Also, the majority are retailtraders. These days i am one of you again ;-) But with the experience as a fund manager (18 months), prop trader (13 months), investment banker (6 months). I got such nice emails and positive reactions, thanks for the warm welcome! However, there was 1 message that wasn't that nice....
Jay Rai,

That sounds wonderful. I am sure that i speak on behalf of everyone that educating us on your approach would be greatly appreciated.

Take solace in the fact that naysayers only go after people who have something positive to offer.

I request you to kindly dive in right and get the thread rolling.

You have multi faceted experience and it is a moot question to ask if people will gain anything value from your insights as the answer is a BIG Resounding YES!!!

Thanks
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