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Best Currency Strength Meter and why?

  • #21
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:31am Feb 15, 2017 3:31am
I have an account at efxplus (paid). As Hanover said, i prefer to use bank positions to determine strength and direction. Before, i used fundamentals only to trade. Understanding what the central banks want. Nowadays every sunday i take a glance at the open positions + pending orders and write down the interesting pairs. Every day i take a quick look how those pairs are performing. If they are hitting a nice pullback level, i get in. That's pretty much it.
  • #22
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:44am Feb 15, 2017 3:44am
I made some screenshots of the actual trades that i made thanks to the banks ;-)

These trades are the more serious ones of mine (trades to live from). Some days i like to scalp but than i use only a custom technical indicator (funwise trading).

Only gold i took a second trade because i was that confident about the moneyflow from/to safehavens etc. And yes, all are without SL. I close trades when i see banks changing their positions (SL/TP or pending orders). That's it.



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  • #23
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:11am Feb 15, 2017 4:11am
Hello Jayrai, pls I would love to know the name of the website where one can obtain the positions of those big banks..thanks.
  • #24
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:13am Feb 15, 2017 4:13am
Quoting JayRai
Maybe my approach is very different than most expect... but for me its very profitable. I use open bank positions to determine which currencies are strong or weak. See attached image to examine how i operate. cp.png;2187109 From the open positions, i see the following; Strong: USD AUD GBP Weak: EUR JPY Sell: EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/GBP Buy: USD/JPY GBP/JPY AUD/JPY I open my positions on s&r lines (pullbacks). Hope this helps. {image}
Pls what's the website, thanks.
  • #25
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:30am Feb 15, 2017 4:30am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Good to read that Hanover, can never have too many CSM if you ask me {image} {file}
Thanks Erebus for the strength Indicator. It's much appreciated.
  • #26
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:33am Feb 15, 2017 4:33am
Quoting JayRai
Maybe my approach is very different than most expect... but for me its very profitable. I use open bank positions to determine which currencies are strong or weak. See attached image to examine how i operate. cp.png;2187109 From the open positions, i see the following; Strong: USD AUD GBP Weak: EUR JPY Sell: EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/GBP Buy: USD/JPY GBP/JPY AUD/JPY I open my positions on s&r lines (pullbacks). Hope this helps. {image}
Nice chart, JayRai! Do you have a link to the source? Thanks.
  • #27
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:53am Feb 15, 2017 4:53am
Hereby the link to the source https://plus.efxnews.com/login
But be advised, it is a paid service. There are other services out there as well that offers the same btw.
I advise to not copy&paste the bank positions blindly. Only if you have very deep pockets ;-)
Use it to determine the direction and use your own skillset to time your entries.
Mine is very clear and simple. Just looking at the RSI to notice a deep pullback and then use the bid-line to 'see' when it hits a nice s&r level.
I do not draw anything. My 'problem' is that i get confused or thinking too much then. So i don't draw a darn thing. No thinking for me. Just see, detect and trade.
The only time i think is when i am looking at the bank positions every sunday (so i can't open positions at that day ;-) ). Then i'll check my money management how much room there is to open possible trades and what to do monday morning. In the first 5 to 6 years i spent 8 to 12 hours a day trying to gain from forex. These days i spent 1 hour on sunday, 30 minutes or so on monday morning and about 10 to 20 minutes every other market day. And guess what, i am more profitable than spending 10 times more time. I really hope some find my info useful!
  • #28
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:26am Feb 15, 2017 5:26am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Glad you and 3,920 others can find it useful, but not one clicked Like Post ??? 2017-02-15_18-50-52.png;2187439 {image}
if it be on left of the site
member's can like
on right member's can't see it good
what we want:1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1=8 what market delivers:1+2+8+7-4+0-5+8-4-5=8
  • #29
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:50am Feb 15, 2017 5:50am
Quoting JayRai
I have an account at efxplus (paid). As Hanover said, i prefer to use bank positions to determine strength and direction. Before, i used fundamentals only to trade. Understanding what the central banks want. Nowadays every sunday i take a glance at the open positions + pending orders and write down the interesting pairs. Every day i take a quick look how those pairs are performing. If they are hitting a nice pullback level, i get in. That's pretty much it.
An excerpt from eFXplus's FAQ:

Q: What are the sources of the information in eFXplus?

A: The information input is derived from banks’ Fixed Income and Currencies (FIC) strategy teams, while the data output is driven by proprietary eFXplus technology.

The same saying in other words: they have close relations with every bank and get very valuable info from them.

Not trying to be a naysayer here, but couple nascent questions I find fair:

1) Don't you doubt their big connections with banks?

2) Why they sell that data, almost for free?

3) Maybe that data is open for everybody?

I see, JayRai, that this works easily and simply, but still would like to understand how and why wheels are rolling.

P.S.: they provide positions sizes too, right?
  • #30
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:53am Feb 15, 2017 5:53am
Quoting JayRai
I really hope some find my info useful!
Of course we find your info useful!

Total respect and thank you, big up yourself.
  • #31
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:59am Feb 15, 2017 5:59am
Quoting JayRai
I have an account at efxplus (paid). As Hanover said, i prefer to use bank positions to determine strength and direction. Before, i used fundamentals only to trade. Understanding what the central banks want. Nowadays every sunday i take a glance at the open positions + pending orders and write down the interesting pairs. Every day i take a quick look how those pairs are performing. If they are hitting a nice pullback level, i get in. That's pretty much it.
Hi JayRai,

Thanks for educating us on a different approach.

1.You list the pairs on Sunday, but as the day's progress do you keep your original bias or do you keep checking the Bank's positions during the weekdays?

2. Are fundamentals still part of decision making or are you done with them?

Once again, appreciate your inputs.
  • #32
  • Feb 15, 2017 7:21am Feb 15, 2017 7:21am
Trading is my business and i live from it. I subscribed to several services in the past, even the very expensive ones (Bloomberg and Reuters). But since the banks sell-side research is available for those who can pay it, i use that info only. I compared it with their own analyses. Can be found around the web as well like http://bankforecast.com/. That way i know the feed is working for me. And yes, they must have connections to the banks because they have to pay for the api-feeds.

Through the week i check my charts of interests. Only to see buy/sell chances. When positions of banks changes, i get instand updates. But banks do not change and/or open their positions every day. So no hurry situations.

Sure, i keep an eye on fundamentals but only to seek buy/sell chances. If i short on EUR/USD and the NFP comes out negatively for the USD, i keep an eye on the positions from the banks and some nice s&r levels to short again when the banks do'nt change their orders. And i get informed when central banks change their view on inflation targets. But what i experienced is that all the banks are reacting to that. So i'll keep an eye mostly on their positions ;-)
  • #33
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:21am Feb 15, 2017 8:21am
Quoting JayRai
I subscribed to several services in the past, even the very expensive ones (Bloomberg and Reuters). But since the banks sell-side research is available for those who can pay it, i use that info only. I compared it with their own analyses.
So banks sell their researches on the side and they have some researches that stay inside? I don't understand this statement -- "I compared it with their own analyses".
What did you compare to what? And what does efxplus sell if two type of analyses take place?

Quoting JayRai
If i short on EUR/USD and the NFP comes out negatively for the USD, i keep an eye on the positions from the banks and some nice s&r levels to short again when the banks do'nt change their orders.
If NFP was negative for the USD, EUR/USD will tend to go up, doesn't it?
  • #34
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:26am Feb 15, 2017 8:26am
Quoting JayRai
Can be found around the web as well like http://bankforecast.com/
Noticed their last forecast was in the summer 2016.
  • #35
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:55am Feb 15, 2017 8:55am
Quoting JayRai
Trading is my business and i live from it. I subscribed to several services in the past, even the very expensive ones (Bloomberg and Reuters). But since the banks sell-side research is available for those who can pay it, i use that info only. I compared it with their own analyses. Can be found around the web as well like http://bankforecast.com/. That way i know the feed is working for me. And yes, they must have connections to the banks because they have to pay for the api-feeds. Through the week i check my charts of interests. Only...
Hello JayRai,

Much gratitude for taking the time to respond to my query...

If you could: Quoting you

"And i get informed when central banks change their view on inflation targets. But what i experienced is that all the banks are reacting to that. So i'll keep an eye mostly on their positions"

So, you get informed when Key performance Indicators of banks change, my diellama is i haven't yet learned how to interpret this fundamental factors.

As you said, since all banks react to any fundamental changes, if i just stick to watching the positions without worrying about the changed outlook of bank vis a vis in inflation targets, Changes in production data, would I have the same success?

Thanks
  • #36
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:58am Feb 15, 2017 8:58am
There are different researches indeed. Banks sell their orderbooks to commercial parties. But that info can be seen in certain orderbooks anyway (if you have access to it like bankers and institutions). I compare the positions to what the analists from those banks told earlier. That way i know for sure that the banks are still doing what their analists are seeing and sharing. Just for my own security to check that once in a while.

bankforecast is just an example of how analists from different banks see the market. Better understanding is from the bank itself.
Citibank for instance;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: citibank.png Size: 151 KB


And correct, negative NFP outcome mostly gives the EUR a boost. When the overall bias is bearish for the EUR/USD, then that would've been a nice opportunity like last NFP.
  • #37
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:07am Feb 15, 2017 9:07am
Quoting JayRai
There are different researches indeed. Banks sell their orderbooks to commercial parties. But that info can be seen in certain orderbooks anyway (if you have access to it like bankers and institutions). I compare the positions to what the analists from those banks told earlier. That way i know for sure that the banks are still doing what their analists are seeing and sharing. Just for my own security to check that once in a while. bankforecast is just an example of how analists from different banks see the market. Better understanding is from the...
Hello JayRai,

In one of your post, you mentioned about being selected in Citibank and managing clients money. How is the experience?

Which do you prefer: Trading as a retail trader or as a fund manager?


Couple of questions, kindly guide at your convenience:

Just to confirm: get bank positions and ensure the numbers match the verbal commentary vis a vis the research reports.Is this correct?

You said, you do it cross check, how often do you check? And in case of contradiction, do you discard the pair or give weightage to bank positions or research reports?

Do you have a favorite site/service that you use for analyst research reports..

Once again, thanks for introducing to a different way of looking at markets...
  • #38
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:08am Feb 15, 2017 9:08am
Quoting aaven
{quote} As you said, since all banks react to any fundamental changes, if i just stick to watching the positions without worrying about the changed outlook of bank vis a vis in inflation targets, Changes in production data, would I have the same success? Thanks
That's correct. Banks react to that very well ;-)

Sure, you could do it yourself. First, know what the central banks target after. As for an example;
http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/in...n-targets.html
Then look what the actual inflation figures are. Like the Euro... the ECB wanted pressure on the Euro and started the QQE. The FED did quit the QQE. So that was obvious to sell the Euro against the USD ever since. This is just a very simple example and approach but i think you get an idea. You must know what the key tools are to influence inflation + currency and what figures are important for the central banks to decide what to do. I also used https://ransquawk.com/ to react fast. But all this can be skipped and watch the positions of large banks like i do these days.
  • #39
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:20am Feb 15, 2017 9:20am
I am happier as a retail trader. Less stress and no responsibilty other than for myself. I do not trade for a broker/bank anymore. Too many rules as well. Trading for myself and some clients but they agreed with my trading style, demands and targets. But i must say that it was a very value lesson to trade for a bank and broker. Intense. Whole different business.

I use bloomberg sometimes but are very confident about the service delivered by efx. So i check the analyses from Citi once a while and compare it with trades.
But if i see big differences between positions and analyses, then i do my own research based on fundamentals. Never happened though. But that is why that i prefer to trade on pullbacks. If it goes against me, i didn't bought or sold the pair on it's highest or lowest price ;-)
  • #40
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:32am Feb 15, 2017 9:32am
Quoting JayRai
I am happier as a retail trader. Less stress and no responsibilty other than for myself. I do not trade for a broker/bank anymore. Too many rules as well. Trading for myself and some clients but they agreed with my trading style, demands and targets. But i must say that it was a very value lesson to trade for a bank and broker. Intense. Whole different business. I use bloomberg sometimes but are very confident about the service delivered by efx. So i check the analyses from Citi once a while and compare it with trades. But if i see big differences...
Thanks for sharing your experience Jay...
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