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  • #681
  • Feb 14, 2017 8:07pm Feb 14, 2017 8:07pm
lol......sigh.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...re-eerily-calm

"With the financial markets strangely quiet, investors in volatility are finally getting fed up with losses and abandoning their positions."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #682
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:22pm Feb 14, 2017 9:22pm
Quoting The Fool
lol......sigh..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...re-eerily-calm "With the financial markets strangely quiet, investors in volatility are finally getting fed up with losses and abandoning their positions."
They need to qualify that -- investors in long volatility ... . Investors who want to short volatility are also getting fed up, though, so not exactly rainbows and unicorns for anyone besides directional market bulls here ... .

At this point, would take some VIX 14 to get into some front month VIX short call verts at the 16 strike and above, so not asking for much, really ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #683
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:58pm Feb 14, 2017 9:58pm
Quoting The Fool
lol......sigh..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...re-eerily-calm "With the financial markets strangely quiet, investors in volatility are finally getting fed up with losses and abandoning their positions."
Also meant to count the days we've been in full-on VIX/VIX futures contango ... . It's been "oodles," best as I can make out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #684
  • Feb 14, 2017 10:17pm Feb 14, 2017 10:17pm
actually we have had several of these dead ^vix runs in the last 2-3 years - depending on how you measure of course, but we could see 6 months without a decent spike, if the past is any guide.

Nevertheless, I can still dream, and the Mar11 week has the Mar FOMC and the Dutch elections - maybe there could be a bit of fun starting there? On the other hand, I am kinda getting into the habit of not trading...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #685
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:46pm Feb 15, 2017 5:46pm
Quoting The Fool
actually we have had several of these dead ^vix runs in the last 2-3 years - depending on how you measure of course, but we could see 6 months without a decent spike, if the past is any guide. Nevertheless, I can still dream, and the Mar11 week has the Mar FOMC and the Dutch elections - maybe there could be a bit of fun starting there? On the other hand, I am kinda getting into the habit of not trading...
Oh, yeah. Last summer, the vol lull seemed to start early and drag on for a very long time ... . Me personally, kinda of enjoying the free time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #686
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:47pm Feb 15, 2017 5:47pm
Covering: XOP March 17th 36/40/40/44 iron fly for a 2.03 db; in for 2.36; out for 2.03; .33 ($33) gross profit per contract.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #687
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:59pm Feb 15, 2017 5:59pm
VIX did pop today (to 11.97), but not enough to move the needle for me to do short call verts in back month expiries using the 50 delta call where it's at the 16 strike or above:

March (34 DTE) ~50 delta: 13 strike
April (62 DTE) ~50 delta: 14 strike
May (90 DTE) ~50 delta: 15 strike
June (125 DTE) ~ 50 delta: 16 strike

Further poppage is required such that one of those <90 DTE expiries has a 50 delta at the 16 for me to play ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #688
  • Feb 17, 2017 4:45pm Feb 17, 2017 4:45pm
Long holiday weekend here in the U.S. (Monday's Presidents' Day), so sit back, relax, and forget about the markets a bit ... . (As though anything was really going on at the moment ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #689
  • Feb 17, 2017 8:40pm Feb 17, 2017 8:40pm
Finally got my TastyWorks invite ... . Took some time, but the account setup is fairly quick, straightforward ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #690
  • Feb 19, 2017 4:19pm Feb 19, 2017 4:19pm
Next week, nutshelled: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WU...ENTLY-LOW-VIX/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #691
  • Feb 19, 2017 8:11pm Feb 19, 2017 8:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Next week, nutshelled: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WU...ENTLY-LOW-VIX/
Scratched a few off after running them through setups: WUBA (monthlies only; weird ass strikes); BCRX (monthlies only; I'm not confident in a bullish assumption with as narrow as their pipeline is); JPN (doesn't pay enough, regardless of the setup); OCN (ditto); SHLD (options have wide bid/ask; will have to check during NY sesh hours) ... . Doesn't leave much for this week.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #692
  • Feb 21, 2017 10:51am Feb 21, 2017 10:51am
Rolling: SPY April 21st 220/223 short put vert to April 21st 226/229 for a .22 credit (iron condor delta balancing).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #693
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:04pm Feb 21, 2017 12:04pm
Stooping to play a 2-star liquidity issue here ...

Opening: TSLA March 17th 240/245/310/315 iron condor for a 1.27 cr. (High IVR/High IV; earnings play). Using the monthlies, because it isn't the most liquid thing options-wise out there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #694
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:54pm Feb 21, 2017 12:54pm
Trying to get a fill on this one (High IVR/High IV; Earnings/Vol Contraction Play):

GPS March 17th 21/25/25/29 iron fly for a 2.04.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #695
  • Feb 21, 2017 1:04pm Feb 21, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Trying to get a fill on this one (High IVR/High IV; Earnings/Vol Contraction Play): GPS March 17th 21/25/25/29 iron fly for a 2.04.
Two pennied it ... . Filled for 2.02.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #696
  • Feb 21, 2017 4:00pm Feb 21, 2017 4:00pm
Trade Idea: DKS March 17th 43/50/50/57.5 iron fly. Max profit: $433/contract; Max Loss/BPE: $317; 5.41 theta; BE's at 45.67/54.33 (High IVR/High IV). Earnings in 21, but I don't plan to stay in that long ... . If she fills, she fills ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #697
  • Edited 9:25pm Feb 21, 2017 9:00pm | Edited 9:25pm
Trade idea: RAD April 21st 6 long calls for .37 at the mid. (Lotto trade; WBA Merger/Acquisition at between 6.50 and 7.00/share).

I'm not the only "genius" who's thought of this idea: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...aid-stock.aspx

More of a gambling sort? -- the 7 longs in April are going for like, .04 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #698
  • Feb 22, 2017 5:56pm Feb 22, 2017 5:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Trade Idea: DKS March 17th 43/50/50/57.5 iron fly. Max profit: $433/contract; Max Loss/BPE: $317; 5.41 theta; BE's at 45.67/54.33 (High IVR/High IV). Earnings in 21, but I don't plan to stay in that long ... . If she fills, she fills ... .
Filled for 4.35. I can now honestly say "I did some dicks" ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #699
  • Feb 22, 2017 5:58pm Feb 22, 2017 5:58pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Stooping to play a 2-star liquidity issue here ... Opening: TSLA March 17th 240/245/310/315 iron condor for a 1.27 cr. (High IVR/High IV; earnings play). Using the monthlies, because it isn't the most liquid thing options-wise out there ... .
Looking good so far ... . AH price currently at 278-ish ... . Well between my shorties.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #700
  • Feb 24, 2017 6:20pm Feb 24, 2017 6:20pm
Opening: VIX June 21st 17/20 short call vert for a .75 ($75)/contract credit. (VIX futures "Term Structure" trade). A bit farther than I like to go out (<90 DTE), but I've only got one remaining VIX setup on -- a 16/19 short call vert in May.

One of my half-assed thoughts, also, is to start positioning short volatility for summer if I can get in at strikes "up the ladder" for .70-.80 ($70-$80)/contract for those three wides. Summer tends to be seasonally the least volatile time of year, although this here is pretty darn "unvolatile."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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