Silent Service Method

Hi Chris, how do you feel about AUDUSD?

I like the resistance at 0.7700.. price is being rejected. That hammer talks by itself i guess.

I believe that the 0.76 level will act as support. Also, I believe that there is a ton of noise between now and the 0.75 level at the very least. I think there are much easier trades out there......

You will have to excuse the ghetto screen capture, I am on the laptop - that has almost no real software on it yet......

EUR/CAD suddenly looks interesting....



Possible move to 1.43?

Concerning the British Pound:

I think that we are on the precipice of a large move lower. It is
because of the upcoming Article 50, and I think it will end up being the zenith of selling pressure. Quite often, a move will need a final 'flush out' of the markets, and the very end of the selling pressure will be sudden and violent. However, I think the death announcement of the United Kingdom has been a bit premature, and sooner or later big money comes into the markets looking for value.

When you look at the long-term charts, i.e. Monthly, the 1.15 level has been massive in its support of the GBP over the decades. I think this is where the stand will be made, if not higher. I believe that there will ba a day or two of chaos, and then careers will be made by going long. HOWEVER... few people will be able to hang onto the long position through what will be massive volatility.

Let me tell you a story, well two actually. Both of these prove I am an idiot.

Pier One:

For those of you that live outside of the US/Canada, there is a retailer here called Pier One. They import furniture and home goods from around the world, and although not the most expensive shop in the world, it isn't exactly cheap either. During the financial crisis several years ago as housing was collapsing, the stock fell below 25 cents. However, the stores were still selling items to people. I bought thousands of shares at something like 20 cents. Several months went by, and I sold my shares at a nice profit at something like $2. It was a good trade for the most part, except that bit about it going to $25 in the next two years!!!

I am still pissed about that one.

Gold:

This one was before the financial crisis, and I even think it is referenced on this thread somewhere. I saw the gold markets break above the $1000 level with force. I missed the move, but was willing to buy on a pullback to $1000, as it should continue higher from there - right? Yeah, it never did pull back far enough. I still hate that I didn't just buy the damn breakout as we went to $1800.

The point?

Sometimes, trends change and big levels are tested. Those are the times you must be willing to hang onto the trade. Will this be one of those times? I have no real idea, but it certainly looks like it has the potential....

Waiting to buy the Pound.