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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,341
  • Feb 11, 2017 5:47pm Feb 11, 2017 5:47pm
Quoting karolisl
{quote} It depends of what size of stop loss you use. You should not risk more than 3%, and by using this you can calculate your trade size.
Ok let see ... 3% of $5000 is $150 with 2 lot then you'll have 7.5 pips SL ... the question is, is it enough to have just 7.5 pips SL?

your winning quote can increase significantly if you have wider SL let say 50 or 100 pips .... because you understand very well VSA you will sure that the movement will go to your direction but sometimes it takes time or go against your direction "a little bit" ... this "a little bit" in my experience around 50 - 100 pips ....

just my 2 cent opinion .... :-)

Trade well ...

Best regrads

dogol
  • #28,342
  • Feb 11, 2017 5:53pm Feb 11, 2017 5:53pm
Quoting dogol
{quote} Ok let see ... 3% of $5000 is $150 with 2 lot then you'll have 7.5 pips SL ... the question is, is it enough to have just 7.5 pips SL? your winning quote can increase significantly if you have wider SL let say 50 or 100 pips .... because you understand very well VSA you will sure that the movement will go to your direction but sometimes it takes time or go against your direction "a little bit" ... this "a little bit" in my experience around 50 - 100 pips .... just my 2 cent opinion .... :-) Trade well ... Best regrads dogol

FYI .... I trade H1 - H4 and Daily ... i dont trade below H1, therefore i need bigger SL ... if you trade lower Time Frame maybe you need less SL than me .... maybe for someone trade lower TF, it is enough just to have mini SL like 5 pips ... but not for me ...
  • #28,343
  • Feb 12, 2017 2:18am Feb 12, 2017 2:18am
Well the SL size depends really on what TF you are trading, off course trading from 1/4h a 7.5 pips SL would be very tiny and you would most likely be kicked out 90% of the times, but 100pips SL I think its a bit too wide.

I understand that sometimes it can go against you 30/50 pips max but not more , if it goes more then 50 pips then you entered rather earlier and you need to refine the entries and read price/volume better.

In the other hand if you use 1min charts like some ppl do with VSA, then 7.5 pips its somehow acceptable , but most important is , ppl need to bear in mind that price can drift 7.5 pips very easy even with the correct readings on PA and volume and those 7.5 pips means 5% of the account, in counterpart entering with SL of 50 pips gives you more room.

It's all about personal style.

Stay safe.
  • #28,344
  • Feb 12, 2017 6:05am Feb 12, 2017 6:05am
Quoting dogol
{quote} Ok let see ... 3% of $5000 is $150 with 2 lot then you'll have 7.5 pips SL ... the question is, is it enough to have just 7.5 pips SL? your winning quote can increase significantly if you have wider SL let say 50 or 100 pips .... because you understand very well VSA you will sure that the movement will go to your direction but sometimes it takes time or go against your direction "a little bit" ... this "a little bit" in my experience around 50 - 100 pips .... just my 2 cent opinion .... :-) Trade well ... Best regrads dogol
I don't say that you need use 2 lots and 7.5 pips sl. Just do following, if you have 5k USD account and your SL is 20 pips, just calculate what size of order you can use, with 20 pip sl ant no more 3% of account.
  • #28,345
  • Edited 9:49am Feb 12, 2017 9:21am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting Onizuka
{quote} Very nice analysis. Keep the good work.
Big thank you, Eikichi

Wanna share my SL at Friday, any comments?
If I understand right it'a all about bar 6, but i didnt see strong confirmation, that i cant go short and with all weak background and nice nd-ut setup..

Edit:
I uploaded EU chart, that was the same time UJ. I think its very interesting moment
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  • #28,346
  • Feb 12, 2017 9:51am Feb 12, 2017 9:51am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Big thank you, Eikichi Wanna share my SL at Friday, any comments? If I understand right it'a all about bar 6, but i didnt see strong confirmation, that i cant go short and with all weak background and nice nd-ut setup.. Edit: I uploaded EU chart, that was the same time UJ. I think its very interesting moment {image} {image}

Hey Lucky hope all goes well with you mate.

this is how I see it

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stay safe and trade well guys.
  • #28,347
  • Feb 12, 2017 10:04am Feb 12, 2017 10:04am
Quoting zwara
{quote} Hey Lucky hope all goes well with you mate. this is how I see it Screenshot_15.png;2184215 stay safe and trade well guys. {image}
Thank you, same to you, do my best

About chart - my SL was above bar 8, so i didnt survive until bar you marked 7, but yes probably i should close even at the following bar to entry.
  • #28,348
  • Feb 12, 2017 3:21pm Feb 12, 2017 3:21pm
For what its worth some of my own thoughts (none of this leads to any trades - just an analysis based on how I would look at).
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1 - High volume 1 hour bar from the Asia session marked with High, 50% and Low levels. This makes it look a little different from your own charts.
2 - No supply at the 50% level - they want to check there is no supply before taking it back up.
3 - Failed break-out/2 bar reversal - bar 3 is on very high volume so I mark the low to check that it is indeed selling (they will test it later for the same reason)
4 - First test/No demand under the High of the 1 hour bar and in that grey zone between the High and the underside of that bar 3.
5 - After price rejects going lower than the 50% level they bring it back up to test the grey zone again - note that bar 5 pushes slightly higher than the prior bar and then drops below the halfway mark of the prior bar - this is very weak and also in the right place.
6 - Price drops and then notice bar 6 straddling the 50% and the Low on much higher volume - the next bar is up so it is probably demand - they will need to bring it back up to flush out demand (assuming the short interest is still got any ammo left)
7 - No demand (but not a particularly clean one) - Price comes back to the High again and tests that grey zone again. Note the bar after 7 tries to reach above but gets slammed back down on high volume. This in turn forces price to drop back to the low... and....
8 - Demand comes in! - Ive marked the high of this bar with a purple line as this is where price would come back to test it assuming it was demand.
9 - Price does come back to test this line (notice how the purple line coincides with the 50% level). Again no demand and a test and price comes back down breaking through the low on the next 15 mins.
I would have looked for a trade, such as no demand/test type bar, under the Low of the 1hr volume bar.

I did actually trade this pair within that time but on the 5m and there was a lot of demand building after bar 6 which led me to take a bit of a punt and go long as the price broke about the 50% mark - it got me 1:1 as the price rebounded back to the High.
Volume at Volume
  • #28,349
  • Feb 13, 2017 12:18am Feb 13, 2017 12:18am
Quoting VSAgav
For what its worth some of my own thoughts (none of this leads to any trades - just an analysis based on how I would look at). Screen Shot 2017-02-12 at 21.14.26.png;2184332 1 - High volume 1 hour bar from the Asia session marked with High, 50% and Low levels. This makes it look a little different from your own charts. 2 - No supply at the 50% level - they want to check there is no supply before taking it back up. 3 - Failed break-out/2 bar reversal - bar 3 is on very high volume so I mark the low to check that it is indeed selling (they will test...
Very nice chartreading!

Since you marked 3,4,5 as the SOW too, why no shorted same time as me - this UT close to your 50% fibo
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  • #28,350
  • Feb 13, 2017 2:27am Feb 13, 2017 2:27am
Morning starts not with coffee, but with stops
Im interesting how would you describe bar 2 if it confirmation of strenght of previous bar, or it is sow with the next bar down, thank you
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  • #28,351
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:05am Feb 13, 2017 3:05am
Someone mind posting a H1 GBPUSD chart please?
Trust the Market
  • #28,352
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:06am Feb 13, 2017 3:06am
Quoting Hawkins
Someone mind posting a H1 GBPUSD chart please?
Here you go
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  • #28,353
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:18am Feb 13, 2017 3:18am
So far looks like EURUSD is being sold. I took a confirmed failed test, right after the failed test there is a nice narrow spread ND.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trust the Market
  • #28,354
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:20am Feb 13, 2017 3:20am
Quoting Hawkins
So far looks like EURUSD is being sold. I took a confirmed failed test, right after the failed test there is a nice narrow spread ND. {image}
Very nice, im also watching EU, but m15 - still waiting for ND
  • #28,355
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:55am Feb 13, 2017 3:55am
Quoting karolisl
{quote} I don't say that you need use 2 lots and 7.5 pips sl. Just do following, if you have 5k USD account and your SL is 20 pips, just calculate what size of order you can use, with 20 pip sl ant no more 3% of account.
I don't mean any disrespect to you.

But telling people a blanket "no more than 3%" isn't the best advice.

There are other factors that should taken in account. Such as how many trades per day/week/month, win rate, R:R. The risk per trade is something a trader has to figure out after they have a good amount of data as far as what they can expect from their trading style. You don't want someone who averages 10 trades a day to risk 3% per trade, one bad day and they've lost 30%.

I know you are just trying to make a point to dogol that the stop loss isn't based on lot size, that lot size is based on stop loss distance. I'm just saying that you might want to word that more carefully.
Trust the Market
  • #28,356
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:59am Feb 13, 2017 3:59am
Quoting Hawkins
So far looks like EURUSD is being sold. I took a confirmed failed test, right after the failed test there is a nice narrow spread ND. {image}
Stalling a bit at 50% level, took off a 1/4 of the position and going to let the rest ride to 1.0560
Trust the Market
  • #28,357
  • Feb 13, 2017 5:21am Feb 13, 2017 5:21am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} Stalling a bit at 50% level, took off a 1/4 of the position and going to let the rest ride to 1.0560
Better close all. It is now on turning point. 1.13 in one month - one and half.
  • #28,358
  • Feb 13, 2017 5:38am Feb 13, 2017 5:38am
Quoting LuckyMind
Morning starts not with coffee, but with stops Im interesting how would you describe bar 2 if it confirmation of strenght of previous bar, or it is sow with the next bar down, thank you {image}
That area around bar 2 isn't all that clear. To me it kind of looks like bar 2 is the up bar to a bottom 2 bar reversal. But that bottom 2 bar reversal is in the wrong place, We would expect it to be at a low. If we look at bar 2 as weakness then why the successful test 2 bars later?

A couple of bars later we see a hidden test, which the market moves up confirming the hidden test which tells us that the market is not ready to go down. Also another thing is look at the bar between 3 and 4. Its a down bar with higher volume than the previous bar, we really would have wanted the higher volume on the previous up bar.

Stuff like this is the hard part of trading. You have weakness in the background but confirming strength. Best to stay away until you see more big selling or failed SOS.
Trust the Market
  • #28,359
  • Feb 13, 2017 5:40am Feb 13, 2017 5:40am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} I don't mean any disrespect to you. But telling people a blanket "no more than 3%" isn't the best advice. There are other factors that should taken in account. Such as how many trades per day/week/month, win rate, R:R. The risk per trade is something a trader has to figure out after they have a good amount of data as far as what they can expect from their trading style. You don't want someone who averages 10 trades a day to risk 3% per trade, one bad day and they've lost 30%. I know you are just trying to make a point to dogol that the stop...
Yes you are absolutely right about this.
  • #28,360
  • Feb 13, 2017 5:51am Feb 13, 2017 5:51am
Quoting Hawkins
So far looks like EURUSD is being sold. I took a confirmed failed test, right after the failed test there is a nice narrow spread ND. {image}
Still looking this screenshot - so clear trade..
Could you please tell how do you use spread a bit more? I found myself yousing spread just to determine the wide spread bars for zones and narrow spread for nd/ns.
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