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My Line in the Sand

  • #361
  • Feb 5, 2017 5:05pm Feb 5, 2017 5:05pm
Quoting MidnightRun
{quote} Steve, Are you using amplitude settings of 4 for M5 TF? Thank you.

Hi Midnight,

Yes, M5 is Amplitude 4.
  • #362
  • Feb 6, 2017 1:12am Feb 6, 2017 1:12am
GBP/JPY M5 Observations

The Market is pushing up into a previous Level of Support (Buy Orders) turned to a Level Resistance (Sell Orders)?

I will wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations.png Size: 128 KB
  • #363
  • Feb 6, 2017 3:01am Feb 6, 2017 3:01am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/JPY M5 Observations The Market is pushing up into a previous Level of Support (Buy Orders) turned to a Level Resistance (Sell Orders)? I will wait and see. {image}
GBP/JPY M5 Observations

Selling started a bit lower than I was expecting but Smart Money had been Accumulating their Short Orders on a Rising Market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations 2.png Size: 187 KB
  • #364
  • Feb 6, 2017 2:33pm Feb 6, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY M5 Observations Selling started a bit lower than I was expecting but Smart Money had been Accumulating their Short Orders on a Rising Market. {image}
GBP/JPY H1 - M5 Observations

It helps, a lot, if at the start of the Trading Day we know if we want to be Selling or Buying.

Smart Money will now be looking for Buy Orders to Off Load their Short Positions and Accumulate new Long Positions.

Remember they have to Buy into a falling Market and Sell into rising Market because of the size of Orders they need to get filled.

If they put a LARGE Buy Order into a rising Market that Order would not get completely filled and would push Price much higher.

That LARGE Buy Order would get broken down into smaller Orders and "fed" into a falling Market so their Order/s would get filled at better Prices.

That LARGE Buy Order consumes all the Sell Orders around it and the Market pushes higher.

In simplistic terms this how the Market Operates day after day.

As you can see on the Charts there are a lot of Orders placed around the .000 and .200 and .800 numbers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th feb 17 GBP:JPY H1 Observations.png Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations 3.png Size: 177 KB
  • #365
  • Feb 6, 2017 2:55pm Feb 6, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY H1 - M5 Observations It helps, a lot, if at the start of the Trading Day we know if we want to be Selling or Buying. Smart Money will now be looking for Buy Orders to Off Load their Short Positions and Accumulate new Long Positions. Remember they have to Buy into a falling Market and Sell into rising Market because of the size of Orders they need to get filled. If they put a LARGE Buy Order into a rising Market that Order would not get completely filled and would push Price much higher. That LARGE Buy Order would get broken down...
just thought i would add a bigger picture for long term bias
if price breaks the current level which i think i will,,,,,we have a huge gap of inefficiency in the market for price to fall lower,,,so i would expect to see a pull back for MM to accumalate there shorts.
the demand level should it reach it would be the 137.20
as you say steve they like there .20 and .80 levels and .00
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  • #366
  • Feb 6, 2017 3:29pm Feb 6, 2017 3:29pm
could this be price action for GBPJPY on the H1 with H4 direction bias?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: steve.JPG Size: 231 KB
  • #367
  • Feb 6, 2017 4:30pm Feb 6, 2017 4:30pm
Quoting devontrader
could this be price action for GBPJPY on the H1 with H4 direction bias? {image}

Hi Jason,

It could well be, but I never like to make long term predictions for the Market.

There's definitely a Level of Inefficiency from 139 to 138 we will just have to wait and see where the Smart Money want to take us.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Feb 17 GBP:JPY H1 Observations 2.png Size: 152 KB
  • #368
  • Feb 6, 2017 5:42pm Feb 6, 2017 5:42pm
GBP/JPY M5 Observations
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Feb 17 M5 Observations.png Size: 119 KB
  • #369
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:52pm Feb 6, 2017 11:52pm
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/JPY M5 Observations {image}
Further M5 Observations
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations.png Size: 166 KB
  • #370
  • Feb 7, 2017 12:42am Feb 7, 2017 12:42am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Further M5 Observations {image}

GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade

The hardest thing is judging when Smart Money has Accumulated their Orders and are ready for the Profit Release.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Short Trade.png Size: 111 KB
  • #371
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:01am Feb 8, 2017 1:01am
GBP?JPY H1/M5 Long Trade
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th feb GBP:JPY H1 Long.png Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Long Trade.png Size: 108 KB
  • #372
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:43am Feb 8, 2017 1:43am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP?JPY H1/M5 Long Trade {image} {image}

GBP/JPY M5 Trade Results

I took two Short Trades yesterday one BE +1 second +30 Pips +2R

Today's Long got taken out at BE +1 Pip.

I'm just trying to Trade in Smart Moneys Wake.

It is relatively easy to get Trade direction correct.

The difficult thing is judging when Smart Money has Accumulated their Orders and have consumed all the opposing Orders and are ready to go for Profit Release.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th Feb 17 GBP:JPY H1 M5 Trades.png Size: 129 KB
  • #373
  • Feb 8, 2017 5:01am Feb 8, 2017 5:01am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY M5 Trade Results I took two Short Trades yesterday one BE +1 second +30 Pips +2R Today's Long got taken out at BE +1 Pip. I'm just trying to Trade in Smart Moneys Wake. It is relatively easy to get Trade direction correct. The difficult thing is judging when Smart Money has Accumulated their Orders and have consumed all the opposing Orders and are ready to go for Profit Release. {image}
I personally react to PA and how it's shaping up, it's that simple, no fancy buzz words to describe it.

Whatever the "big boys" intention is will be unknown to me and therefore irrelevant, the only thing relevant to me is the price and how it's shaping.

Regarding results and t/f, M5 is ok if you're happy to be staring at the screen all day I guess, waiting for that moment to enter, but that's not for me.

I have several pairs in play and a couple close to entering

GJ H4 chart attached is quite typical....taken 100 pips, left some and made adjustments to stop now BE +30. I will add a further position if possible at an opportune time when my criteria is met to do so. Advantages are straightforward...less staring!

Attached Image
  • #374
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:55am Feb 8, 2017 11:55am
Quoting Landline
{quote} I personally react to PA and how it's shaping up, it's that simple, no fancy buzz words to describe it. Whatever the "big boys" intention is will be unknown to me and therefore irrelevant, the only thing relevant to me is the price and how it's shaping. Regarding results and t/f, M5 is ok if you're happy to be staring at the screen all day I guess, waiting for that moment to enter, but that's not for me. I have several pairs in play and a couple close to entering GJ H4 chart attached is quite typical....taken 100 pips, left some and made...

Hi Landline,

I agree that Price is the most important thing.

But having some understanding of Smart Moneys intentions and how they Trade is important.

We can see on the Charts where the Market is in Balance, equal Buyers and Sellers, and out of Balance where one side has taken control and consumed all the counter Orders and the Market takes off.

Where we see Levels of great Imbalance, within the Market, we can usually be sure that the Market will return to these Levels to use the Orders that remain there to Distribute old Positions and Accumulate new ones.

What I've got on the Chart below might be a complete load of bollocks and I've got it completely wrong, but by Trading M5 I can adapt quickly to what is happening.

I find, when I have time, there is usually a setup within a couple of hours of Frankfurt or New York Open.

I'm quite happy to take 1R (One Loser (-1R) one Winner +2R) or 2R (One winner +2R) in a day if I have two losers in a row stop Trading for the day.

Like I've said in the past Time Exposure, to the Market, is an important element for me the longer we spend in a Trade the more chance there is for things to change.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th feb 17 GBP:JPY H4 Observations.png Size: 210 KB
  • #375
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:56pm Feb 8, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, I agree that Price is the most important thing. But having some understanding of Smart Moneys intentions and how they Trade is important. We can see on the Charts where the Market is in Balance, equal Buyers and Sellers, and out of Balance where one side has taken control and consumed all the counter Orders and the Market takes off. Where we see Levels of great Imbalance, within the Market, we can usually be sure that the Market will return to these Levels to use the Orders that remain there to Distribute old Positions and Accumulate...
Man o man....you really do have a thing about using fancy buzz words to describe the simplest concepts like s & r. Just keep it simple....you haven't got to try to impress people with fancy terms and fancy writing and fancy charts...just keep it simple, unless you like talking in a foreign language that is lol
  • #376
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:00pm Feb 8, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting Landline
{quote} Man o man....you really do have a thing about using fancy buzz words to describe the simplest concepts like s & r. Just keep it simple....you haven't got to try to impress people with fancy terms and fancy writing and fancy charts...just keep it simple, unless you like talking in a foreign language that is lol
i dont disrespect anyone,,,,i simply respect everyones views and i appreciate all that help each other
personally i think steves charts are spot on and very clear,,,in fact one of the best of FF

equally i think landline has a lot of knowledge and can contribute a lot...so looking forward to that too

i personally am on skype and welcomeanyone for a chat and discuss charts,,,after allwe are all here to learn and to be able to learn for each other if possible is better still
  • #377
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:00pm Feb 8, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, I agree that Price is the most important thing. But having some understanding of Smart Moneys intentions and how they Trade is important. We can see on the Charts where the Market is in Balance, equal Buyers and Sellers, and out of Balance where one side has taken control and consumed all the counter Orders and the Market takes off. Where we see Levels of great Imbalance, within the Market, we can usually be sure that the Market will return to these Levels to use the Orders that remain there to Distribute old Positions and Accumulate...
great post steve
also emailed you
  • #378
  • Feb 8, 2017 4:20pm Feb 8, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting Landline
{quote} Man o man....you really do have a thing about using fancy buzz words to describe the simplest concepts like s & r. Just keep it simple....you haven't got to try to impress people with fancy terms and fancy writing and fancy charts...just keep it simple, unless you like talking in a foreign language that is lol
Hi Landline,

What causes Support?

What causes Resistance?

I'm not trying to impress anyone, I don't need to do that, and if I was I wouldn't be doing it writing in my journal which, as you say, gets very little response.

I'm trying to inform people how the Markets work the terminology I'm using is how I was taught.

Knowledge is power.

For me, the most powerful knowledge I gained was when I understood the consequences of Trading in a Zero Sum Market.

Once you have the knowledge you can Trade it as simply as you want.
  • #379
  • Feb 8, 2017 4:50pm Feb 8, 2017 4:50pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, What causes Support? What causes Resistance? I'm not trying to impress anyone, I don't need to do that, and if I was I wouldn't be doing it writing in my journal which, as you say, gets very little response. I'm trying to inform people how the Markets work the terminology I'm using is how I was taught. Knowledge is power. For me, the most powerful knowledge I gained was when I understood the consequences of Trading in a Zero Sum Market. Once you have the knowledge you can Trade it as simply as you want.
Mate...the causes don't matter...it's the effects we trade!

Who cares how a car works...we drive it, that's what matters!
  • #380
  • Feb 8, 2017 5:37pm Feb 8, 2017 5:37pm
Quoting Landline
{quote} Mate...the causes don't matter...it's the effects we trade! Who cares how a car works...we drive it, that's what matters!

that's the exact opposite, we have two bus we can catch up or down, but you don't drive anything, you just choose what bus you will catch

Steve is using the right words market is not simple, if you want to read the background of the charts....

stay safe.
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