Most traders fail because of no discipline! | Page 35 | Forex Factory

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Most traders fail because of no discipline!

  • #681
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:31am Feb 3, 2017 9:31am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} I don't understand what you saying, the trades you would have won/loss are based on a reward:risk ratio anyway and the hit ratio would be directly linked to the reward:risk ratio. you are like saying the egg came before the chicken.
no you calculate it wrong, all comes from your trading system. when your trading system will bether work with 2:1 use it, when it will bether work with 1:2 use it.
you have to calculate the RR and how much wins /loss trades from your trading system, not from random trading in the blind ( then is offcourse RR complete useless, because you dont know any numbers ).

i thought we speak all the time about usefull RR, not only RR for a trade without a trading system. when you speak about blind traded, then you are correct, and the hit ratio would be directly linked to the reward:risk ratio by trading a longer time and random prices.
  • #682
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:37am Feb 3, 2017 9:37am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} hmm, when you trade when its random its not best way. then you dont use an edge. but if you want to do so, then its on longterm allways a loss, what ever RR ratio you use, because of spread/ commission and slippage.
Min

Not random ? On 1000 trades you have 600 profitables trades, 400 losing trades, how would you know in advance the result of the 1001th trades ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #683
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:42am Feb 3, 2017 9:42am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Min Not random ? On 1000 trades you have 600 profitables trades, 400 losing trades, how would you know in advance the result of the 1001th trades ?
i would calculate all neccesary parameters. then is not important what trade is after trade 1001, its important what will come on the end after next 100,1000 trades.

you trade a trade system, so one trade is only one small part of the system, you need to calculate many trades together for a picture.

but only this info (600/400 win loss tades) its not enough info for calculating anything. its same like only RR, not useable.
  • #684
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:51am Feb 3, 2017 9:51am

  1. Most beginner traders focus on their win percentage
  2. Educated traders focus on their Risk/Reward Ratio
  3. Veteran traders focus on how their win percentage and Risk/Reward work together

The key benefit to using a positive risk:reward ratio is that it takes pressure off of our strategy’s win rate. We know for certain that as long as we are correct at least 50% of the time, we should be profitable. In fact, our win rate doesn’t need to be that high. We can make money with a win rate much lower than 50% if our risk:reward ratio is strong enough

We need to have an edge when we take into account our win rate and our risk:reward ratio. Neither attribute can make us profitable on their own. To be profitable, we need to have a win rate higher than the breakeven win rate next our preferred risk:reward ratio.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #685
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:25am Feb 3, 2017 11:25am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} i would calculate all neccesary parameters. then is not important what trade is after trade 1001, its important what will come on the end after next 100,1000 trades. you trade a trade system, so one trade is only one small part of the system, you need to calculate many trades together for a picture. but only this info (600/400 win loss tades) its not enough info for calculating anything. its same like only RR, not useable.

What are "all necessary parameters" ?

"then is not important what trade is after trade 1001, its important what will come on the end after next 100,1000 trades."
Trade 1001 is not "what will come on the end after next 100,1000 trades" ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #686
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:27am Feb 3, 2017 11:27am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} i would calculate all neccesary parameters. then is not important what trade is after trade 1001, its important what will come on the end after next 100,1000 trades. you trade a trade system, so one trade is only one small part of the system, you need to calculate many trades together for a picture. but only this info (600/400 win loss tades) its not enough info for calculating anything. its same like only RR, not useable.

I thought my posts were simple, no ?

I think you do not understand, I was speaking about the randomness of a one trade.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #687
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:29am Feb 3, 2017 11:29am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} I thought my posts were simple, no ? I think you do not understand, I was speaking about the randomness of a one trade.
yes, and i spoke all the time about not randomnes of trading system.
  • #688
  • Edited 12:08pm Feb 3, 2017 11:34am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting Shabs19
Most beginner traders focus on their win percentage Educated traders focus on their Risk/Reward Ratio Veteran traders focus on how their win percentage and Risk/Reward work together The key benefit to using a positive risk:reward ratio is that it takes pressure off of our strategys win rate. We know for certain that as long as we are correct at least 50% of the time, we should be profitable. In fact, our win rate doesnt need to be that high. We can make money with a win rate much lower than 50% if our risk:reward ratio is strong enough We need to...

Yes exactly, because a loss impact us 2.5 times more than a so delicious win, it is then natural to go for the highest win rate possible.
Trading is a business about losing money because you feel each loss much more than a win can be even in a profitable trading.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #689
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:39am Feb 3, 2017 11:39am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} yes, and i spoke all the time about not randomnes of trading system.

Who spoke about the trading system ? I was speaking about the trading result of each trade being randomn, that we face uncertainty on each new trade, that the distribution was randomn, that therefore an higher reward versus risk can be an edge and you are just answering nonsense, totally away from the subject, damn, I am out of here.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #690
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:41am Feb 3, 2017 11:41am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Who spoke about the trading system ? I was speaking about the trading result of each trade being randomn, that we face uncertainty on each new trade, that the distribution was randomn, that therefore an higher reward versus risk can be an edge and you are just answering nonsense, totally away from the subject, damn, I am out of here.
simple wrong, you did not speak about this, only later you told all that this was your subject. not easy to speak to someone , when you dont see that your point is useless, only important what trading system works. what you do is showing new traders how you should do planing trading!! think about it.
  • #691
  • Edited 12:07pm Feb 3, 2017 11:45am | Edited 12:07pm
I can not understand you anyway lol, what does your answer means I have really no clue, I would have wanted to know, If someone can translate it would be great.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #692
  • Edited 12:12pm Feb 3, 2017 11:53am | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting LDFX
I can not understand you anyway lol, what does your answer means I have really no clue, I would have wanted to know, If someone can translate it would be great. No one to back me up ?
backup by an error?who should use your " for 1 trade " planing in real live?? use planing trading system, so that you can trade in real live and survive. just a tip, nothing you have to do.

i see its to difficult for you to understand the true value of a trading system, you trade from one trade to next , or?
  • #693
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:01pm Feb 3, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} backup by an error?who should use your " for 1 trade " planing in real live?? use planing trading system, so that you can trade in real live and survive. just a tip, nothing you have to do.

Lol.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #694
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:35pm Feb 3, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Who spoke about the trading system ? I was speaking about the trading result of each trade being randomn, that we face uncertainty on each new trade, that the distribution was randomn, that therefore an higher reward versus risk can be an edge and you are just answering nonsense, totally away from the subject, damn, I am out of here.
by the way, this is complete wrong, so wrong . you dont know basics of math or?

i can help you, when you dont see the mistake by yourself? ask me.
  • #695
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:38pm Feb 3, 2017 12:38pm
An edge can be a point in time when price is likely to move strongly in one direction, soooo, having a higher reward is OBVIOUSLY the best choice, no need to explain.

People blow their accounts fast because they don't let the profit run, (I'm one of those, don't worry )

I confirmed this with siimple simulations. without an edge the 1:2 RR testing account lasts always much longer than the 2:1 (even years). With the edge the RR 2:1 is much less profitable.


P.s. my English is still bad, sorry if I make mistakes
  • #696
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:52pm Feb 3, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting HeyYou
An edge can be a point in time when price is likely to move strongly in one direction, soooo, having a higher reward is OBVIOUSLY the best choice, no need to explain. People blow their accounts fast because they don't let the profit run, (I'm one of those, don't worry ) I confirmed this with siimple simulations. without an edge the 1:2 RR testing account lasts always much longer than the 2:1 (even years). With the edge the RR 2:1 is much less profitable. P.s. my English is still bad, sorry if I make mistakes
with an edge the 1:2 last longer, and without an edge too? or was this an mistake in the sentence, that it should : "With the edge the RR 2:1 is much MORE profitable"??

RR is reward: risk for you? or opposite?
  • #697
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:59pm Feb 3, 2017 12:59pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} with an edge the 1:2 last longer, and without an edge too? or was this an mistake in the sentence, that it should : "With the edge the RR 2:1 is much MORE profitable"?? RR is reward: risk for you? or opposite?
I don't understand? I said without an edge the 2:1 account blows faster than the 1:2.. With the edge 2:1 is less profitable.
  • #698
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:04pm Feb 3, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I don't understand? I said without an edge the 2:1 account blows faster than the 1:2.. With the edge 2:1 is less profitable.
but then in both cases the 2:1 its less profitable and the 1:2 bether, or? many depends from the trading system, for other may be other values.
  • #699
  • Edited 3:38pm Feb 3, 2017 1:07pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} but then in both cases the 2:1 its less profitable and the 1:2 bether, or? many depends from the trading system, for other may be other values.
Maybe if you don't use hard stops/take profits the RR wont matter that much but that's another story.


EDIT: assuming that you DO HAVE an edge.
  • #700
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:23pm Feb 3, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Maybe if you don't use hard stops/take profits the RR wont matter that much but that's another story.
yes offourse. fixed TP/sl RR ratio are very rarely in real trading world by good traders. it depends from exit strategies and market behavior, so tp/SL is most of the time used as max tp, because this is easy backtestable. more often closing by other conditions then fix tp is best, same for SL. one SL is used for worst cases, in other cases you close when closing conditions are reached. so most trades dont reach max tp or max SL.
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