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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,581
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:06pm Feb 2, 2017 12:06pm
Quoting Wulfgar
AAPL closes below 128.60 at 9am Hawaiian time(my time) and I'm short this POS with a Mar 130/135 bear call spread for at least 1.00 credit and about .45 risk per contract

Entered for 1.16 credit

for good measure I bought some april debit spreads 130/120 for 3.35 too

Ill pull the spreads if we close over 130 after the 1st hour of any trading day

Target down at 125

*Yawn*
  • #14,582
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:57pm Feb 2, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting Wulfgar
*Yawn*
mmmhmmm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,583
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:01pm Feb 2, 2017 1:01pm
loaded a 3/24 SPY put fly @ $222.5/220/217.5 for 11c - the week after the Mar FOMC. If DJT would shut up, the equity markets would rally, and I have some bullish SPX and SPY spreads. Even in spite of DJT, I'd have to bet we see new ath's here in Q1...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,584
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:38pm Feb 2, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting The Fool
ok I have the SPX strangle above that sets up for a move off the FOMC....trade risks $325 and I could lose all of that if SPX doesn't move much.
markets did nothing off the FOMC, I'm sitting on cash...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,585
  • Edited 4:22pm Feb 2, 2017 4:06pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting The Fool
hey wulfgar, can you short gold and go long USD and short crude? Well I wouldn't, but that's because I have to bet Trump will give Bibi a friendship muffin basket and start blowing things up in Iran. USO iv's also cratering and that makes for cheap calendars..... {image} {image}
Brilliant move, sir. Just brilliant.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the eight choke points for oil, and is controlled by Iran.
Any retaliation by Iran as a result of new US sanctions could drive up the price AND IV of oil/USO.
  • #14,586
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:37pm Feb 2, 2017 4:37pm
Quoting SnoopyAKQJT
{quote} Brilliant move, sir. Just brilliant. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the eight choke points for oil, and is controlled by Iran. Any retaliation by Iran as a result of new US sanctions could drive up the price AND IV of oil/USO.
well, we'll see. Not sure how Putin would like it if US destroyers start blowing Iranian boats out of the water. I did try to fill the long-dated $15 USO call calendar shown above, not for 6c but 9c and no fill, no chase.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,587
  • Feb 2, 2017 6:12pm Feb 2, 2017 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
loaded a 3/24 SPY put fly @ $222.5/220/217.5 for 11c - the week after the Mar FOMC. If DJT would shut up, the equity markets would rally, and I have some bullish SPX and SPY spreads. Even in spite of DJT, I'd have to bet we see new ath's here in Q1...
No question, I can easily make a case for DOW 30k in the next 4 years with trumps econ agenda being pushed through so aggressively. The major battle will be fought with the Fed. War is a wild card as always but considering that what trump is doing is basically just another form of QE(cutting fat off spending instead of creating more spending), the sky is really the limit.

Basically I'm gonna continue playing a bunch of long dated ratio spreads whenever any of the indexes dip. If I buy a long dated call way OTM and sell 2 puts deep ITM then I can get a heavily position for free or even some credit and it takes pretty much no maintenance.
  • #14,588
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:59pm Feb 2, 2017 7:59pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I'm gonna continue playing a bunch of long dated ratio spreads whenever any of the indexes dip. If I buy a long dated call way OTM and sell 2 puts deep ITM then I can get a heavily position for free or even some credit and it takes pretty much no maintenance.
YO mayne next time you load one show us, I have never (on purpose) sold ditm options, but I see those trades going down in the Time/Sales all the time....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,589
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:08pm Feb 2, 2017 8:08pm
Quoting Wulfgar
No question, I can easily make a case for DOW 30k in the next 4 years
....well, I might live to see Dow 30k, but I'd bet I'll see 15k before 30k. There are just too many traps in the months/years ahead. It'll be a miracle if the Trump regime does not get us into some kind of catastrophe, military or economic, and then there's the breakdown of the EMU waiting to happen, with ominous elections just weeks/months away. The latter fears is what has the US indices ranging going sideways for the last 8+ weeks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,590
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:23pm Feb 2, 2017 8:23pm
I like these otm put calendars - the iv jump (if DIA falls) pushes out the b/e's and you can get a very wide profit range as a result ......also, I am always looking to get something out about 2 weeks before expiry (as shown below) because the b/e's start running to the middle pretty hard after that.

I'm not paying 25-30c for DIA on this, though, can look for better discounts in SPY or SPX for m/l the same moves...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-02-02_1819dia.png Size: 71 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,591
  • Feb 2, 2017 9:48pm Feb 2, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}YO mayne next time you load one show us, I have never (on purpose) sold ditm options, but I see those trades going down in the Time/Sales all the time....

Ya man they are great trades... For instance f you wanted to do one on GLD right now You could sell 2 June 17 102 puts and buy 1 june 16 128 call for about .~18

There really is no maintenance other than let it run, if it expires in the range you are out .18 and if it closes below 102 then you own gld at 102(not a bad place to own it actually). On the other hand if Trump is a huge failure and Gold breaks to 140 then you are going to make a fortune because basically you will be long the actual stock above 131 and making insane profits


I know it is more "position" than typical strategies, but they can pay off like crazy if you are only willing to own te underlying stock at the strike price of the short puts.

If you want one with a small credit look at the June quarterly 208/230 spread. But you gotta be willing to own SPY at the 2016 lows.
  • #14,592
  • Feb 2, 2017 9:52pm Feb 2, 2017 9:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....well, I might live to see Dow 30k, but I'd bet I'll see 15k before 30k. There are just too many traps in the months/years ahead. It'll be a miracle if the Trump regime does not get us into some kind of catastrophe, military or economic, and then there's the breakdown of the EMU waiting to happen, with ominous elections just weeks/months away. The latter fears is what has the US indices ranging going sideways for the last 8+ weeks....

Ya there is a ton of black swans that can happen, and everyone is still heavily bearish on the markets due to those potentials. Funny thing is that's exactly what drives these bull markets higher. Id LOVE to see a 20% drop, Id buy the piss out of it. Every Joe blow who listened to the pundits about trump went all into cash before the election and now is sitting on their hands watching their cash devalue and equities run roughshod to the moon.

it takes balls like the Kind of Bayonne to keep buying these insane highs, but you gotta fuckin do it till it stops working.
  • #14,593
  • Feb 2, 2017 9:53pm Feb 2, 2017 9:53pm
Quoting The Fool
I like these otm put calendars - the iv jump (if DIA falls) pushes out the b/e's and you can get a very wide profit range as a result ......also, I am always looking to get something out about 2 weeks before expiry (as shown below) because the b/e's start running to the middle pretty hard after that. I'm not paying 25-30c for DIA on this, though, can look for better discounts in SPY or SPX for m/l the same moves... {image}

Ya man I love calenders, cheap an you now your risk, plus its great to keep rolling the short unit once it expires. I put in a SPY 223 one recently that totally sucked, haha. But its all I saw at the time.
  • #14,594
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:01pm Feb 2, 2017 10:01pm
I even found a better position trade on GLD

Check out a June 116/107 and add in a short 125c as the target. You could snag all that for about a .40 debit

Net yourself a .60 delta trade with a $600 max profit per contract and the risk is owning GLD at 107
  • #14,595
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:31pm Feb 2, 2017 10:31pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Ya man I love calenders, cheap an you now your risk, plus its great to keep rolling the short unit once it expires. I put in a SPY 223 one recently that totally sucked, haha. But its all I saw at the time.
ok I will keep veggin out til the night shift, round about FO/LO....then I will try to model some trades....how do you like that HI time zone?

man I have a feeling team Trump is gonna spring some heavy shit, sooner than later - maybe they will trade Putin the Ukraine for Iran, egged on by Israel, who have been chompin at the bit to light up Tehran for years....anyway, all my longer tf trades are bearish....we are long overdue for a blow and 20% might just be the first move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,596
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:41pm Feb 2, 2017 10:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}ok I will keep veggin out til the night shift, round about FO/LO....then I will try to model some trades....how do you like that HI time zone? man I have a feeling team Trump is gonna spring some heavy shit, sooner than later - maybe they will trade Putin the Ukraine for Iran, egged on by Israel, who have been chompin at the bit to light up Tehran for years....anyway, all my longer tf trades are bearish....we are long overdue for a blow and 20% might just be the first move....

I love HI brother. I moved there back in 2013, in fact I think one of our last PMs was right when I moved before I bailed on FF for the beach.

Its also why I pretty much only trade options longer term. No way in hell I'm getting up to trade the US equity markets. I don't wanna miss my afternoons trading the Pac-Asian markets, and screw being up all night to trade Europe.

Its crazy looking at the markets on a macro picture, every single 20%+ drop has rallied huge to make new highs. I honestly think if Trump destroys the world we will eventually rally. The only real killer is another deflationary collapse like Japan had in the 80's. I think if Trump Schlonged the world we would see an inflationary depression though, which means all us bulls are gonna end up owning a giant human slave colony.
  • #14,597
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:50pm Feb 2, 2017 10:50pm
Who all is still around from 4 years back? Cloggie ever pop his head in to rage under a diff name or anything?
  • #14,598
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:50pm Feb 2, 2017 10:50pm
hey Wulfgar what up dude, whats new man...sees you gots all sophisticated and became an options trader now...hope all is well..

say, what ever happen to that other convict...fxjawn...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #14,599
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:55pm Feb 2, 2017 10:55pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
hey Wulfgar what up dude, whats new man...sees you gots all sophisticated and became an options trader now...hope all is well.. say, what ever happen to that other convict...fxjawn...

Ya man I got sassy with my options trading lol

Good to see another familiar face brother. I got engaged and pretty much just been living the dream for as long as it can last. How you been?

I haven't talked to Jon in a few months. Last I checked he was living in Miami and bangin Cuban girls. I think he ended up goin back to Louisiana to take care of his sick mother honestly. Ill give him a call in the next few days and check in with him. Guy is honestly a real life brother to me.
  • #14,600
  • Feb 2, 2017 11:00pm Feb 2, 2017 11:00pm
cool dude, sounds like you got a grove going..keep it up....

anyways, if you talk to that jackass..tell him Hi from me..and tell him to stop by...


talk later man..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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