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My Line in the Sand

  • #321
  • Feb 1, 2017 1:22pm Feb 1, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, Thanks for your observations. It was the rejection of Resistance at 142.450 that gave me a Bearish Bias I could see Space for a Short Trade to develop I didn't know, of course, that Smart Money still had Buy Orders to fill around the 142.000 RN which pushed the Market higher. Luckily for me the Market dropped far enough for my Stop to move to BE +1 Pip. There where a number of valid entries on the way up that I missed but I did manage to catch a Short Trade that came back and filled the Gap left after the 1.15 GMT Red News....
Steve i agree with what you say.
But i would like to make one point.....

We all stepped into a class room once upon a time....to learn something we knew nothing about.
We sit and we listen to the teacher and try to absorb the info being taught.
In this case we read.
In that class room once taught we then do it our selves because this is the best way to learn.
But.if it didnt sink in and you still didnt understand you would ask the teacher and eventually he would show you.
Then knce he showed you
...you would go oh yea no i get.it
And away you go .....being able to do it on your own.

For.me personally i understand what im.reading but when im.looking at my chart im not getting the ...oh yea

So far for me i need a teacher to show me and explain why so i know what is going on and be able to do my own charts.

Im a practical person not a reading person.

Thats where i am at the moment
  • #322
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:09pm Feb 1, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting devontrader
{quote} Steve i agree with what you say. But i would like to make one point..... We all stepped into a class room once upon a time....to learn something we knew nothing about. We sit and we listen to the teacher and try to absorb the info being taught. In this case we read. In that class room once taught we then do it our selves because this is the best way to learn. But.if it didnt sink in and you still didnt understand you would ask the teacher and eventually he would show you. Then knce he showed you ...you would go oh yea no i get.it And away...

Hi Jason,

I think the way I Trade you either get" or you don't.

All I'm doing is setting my Trade Bias on M5 by using the HalfTrend, Market above my Bias is Long, Market below my Bias is Short. That's straight forward enough.

Once I have my Bias I wait for the Market to PullBack then I look for Engulfing Candles - Inside Candles - Pin Bars I enter a Trade on the Break of the Setup Candle.

Like I said you either "get" it or you don't it's very hard to teach someone beyond what I have been posting. Everything I do is in the Trades I've shown in the past.

  • #323
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:17pm Feb 1, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Jason, I think the way I Trade you either get" or you don't. All I'm doing is setting my Trade Bias on M5 by using the HalfTrend, Market above my Bias is Long, Market below my Bias is Short. That's straight forward enough. Once I have my Bias I wait for the Market to PullBack then I look for Engulfing Candles - Inside Candles - Pin Bars I enter a Trade on the Break of the Setup Candle. Like I said you either "get" it or you don't it's very hard to teach someone beyond what I have been posting. Everything I do is in the Trades I've shown...
Yes i get what your saying thats easy to do.

The hardest part to find on the charts and learn to do is being able to look at a chart and see the levels and structures with where and why market makers are.

You able you look at a chart and see whats going on and where structure levels are.

Eg...take off everything off so just a naked chart
And to learn to read and undetstand structure etc ....what you always do before even looking at trade entries etc.

You know im always on skype evenings
  • #324
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:00am Feb 2, 2017 4:00am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, Thanks for your observations. It was the rejection of Resistance at 142.450 that gave me a Bearish Bias I could see Space for a Short Trade to develop I didn't know, of course, that Smart Money still had Buy Orders to fill around the 142.000 RN which pushed the Market higher. Luckily for me the Market dropped far enough for my Stop to move to BE +1 Pip. There where a number of valid entries on the way up that I missed but I did manage to catch a Short Trade that came back and filled the Gap left after the 1.15 GMT Red News.[/highlight]...
That is quite correct.

Others should take note of your comment and figure out what aspects of a chart are important and what aren't.

It seems to me that many get easily confused....probably (as you have already alluded to) because they are not thinking for themselves and end up being led like sheep down various paths and lose their focus on the core principles of trading.
  • #325
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:31am Feb 2, 2017 4:31am
Quoting Landline
{quote} That is quite correct. Others should take note of your comment and figure out what aspects of a chart are important and what aren't. It seems to me that many get easily confused....probably (as you have already alluded to) because they are not thinking for themselves and end up being led like sheep down various paths and lose their focus on the core principles of trading.
I agree landline so any help would be great
  • #326
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:44am Feb 2, 2017 4:44am
Quoting devontrader
{quote} I agree landline so any help would be great
OK...the first thing that YOU need to do is to list what YOU think is important in order to make a trading decision (not necessarily what I think). Go ahead and create that list carefully taking into account what you already know. The list should be quite small initially in order to get the conceptual thinking in your mind on what is and isn't important. Thereafter, it can be fine tuned once you have that platform.
  • #327
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:16am Feb 2, 2017 10:16am
GBP/JPY M5 Observations
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2nd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations.png Size: 174 KB
  • #328
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:52am Feb 3, 2017 2:52am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/JPY M5 Observations {image}
GBP/JPY M5 Observations
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Observations.png Size: 140 KB
  • #329
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:11am Feb 3, 2017 3:11am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY M5 Observations {image}
GBP/JPY M5 Long Trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Long Trade.png Size: 137 KB
  • #330
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:47am Feb 3, 2017 3:47am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY M5 Long Trade {image}
GBP/JPY Long Trade Result

(-15) Pips (-1R)

Red News took me out.

I should have taken note of Red News I guess.

But, how many of you, when back testing, take Red News into account?

We can only Trade what we see and take Trade which have a Positive Expectation from past experience.

If I see the same Setup in the future I will take the Trade because of my Positive Expectation from that type of Setup.

You all have to find your own Positive Expectations no one can find them for you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Long Trade Result.png Size: 116 KB
  • #331
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:54am Feb 3, 2017 3:54am
GBP/JPY M5 Observations

My Bias is now Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY Observations 2.png Size: 142 KB
  • #332
  • Edited 6:25am Feb 3, 2017 6:15am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY Long Trade Result (-15) Pips (-1R) Red News took me out. I should have taken note of Red News I guess. But, how many of you, when back testing, take Red News into account? We can only Trade what we see and take Trade which have a Positive Expectation from past experience. If I see the same Setup in the future I will take the Trade because of my Positive Expectation from that type of Setup. You all have to find your own Positive Expectations no one can find them for you. {image}
Imo, any entry taken must have that positive expectation that you have mentioned, and thus it goes without saying because no one should be entering a trade with negative expectation I'd have thought.

Having said that, there are different levels of quality of a given set-up, and it might therefore be more accurate to say that any given set-up for consideration of a trade has a High, Medium or low PE (they won't all be high in other words). So, if it doesn't fall into a PE category at all (no matter whether it is H,M or L), then it will not have the entry conditions worthy enough to trade in the first place, and will, by definition have a NE!
  • #333
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:32am Feb 3, 2017 7:32am
Quoting Landline
{quote} Imo, any entry taken must have that positive expectation that you have mentioned, and thus it goes without saying because no one should be entering a trade with negative expectation I'd have thought. Having said that, there are different levels of quality of a given set-up, and it might therefore be more accurate to say that any given set-up for consideration of a trade has a High, Medium or low PE (they won't all be high in other words). So, if it doesn't fall into a PE category at all (no matter whether it is H,M or L), then it will not...

Hi Landline,

I totally agree every Trade taken must have Positive Expectancy.

What I was trying to say was every Trader has to find a Method that they "KNOW" has a Positive Expectancy.

It's no good just copying someone else and expecting positive results.

Everyone is following a different Trading route and should be looking to gain enough knowledge to make their own Trading Decisions that produces Positive Expectancy.
  • #334
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:49am Feb 3, 2017 7:49am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Landline, I totally agree every Trade taken must have Positive Expectancy. What I was trying to say was every Trader has to find a Method that they "KNOW" has a Positive Expectancy. It's no good just copying someone else and expecting positive results. Everyone is following a different Trading route and should be looking to gain enough knowledge to make their own Trading Decisions that produces Positive Expectancy.
Agreed...the plethora of "systems" out there have undoubtedly had the effect of confusing the multitude to the point of being unable to confidently make a trading decision.

Many have probably learnt a little...or perhaps mis-learnt a little is a better description. In many cases, they think that they have become experts overnight with the stuff they've read, and then wonder why their trades consistently fail.

The path of success needs more than copying as you have said.
  • #335
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:58am Feb 3, 2017 7:58am
GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Short Trade.png Size: 122 KB
  • #336
  • Feb 3, 2017 8:33am Feb 3, 2017 8:33am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade {image}
It may work out for you on the M5...but I would prefer a long personally
  • #337
  • Feb 3, 2017 8:48am Feb 3, 2017 8:48am
Quoting Landline
{quote} It may work out for you on the M5...but I would prefer a long personally
I would expect something like attached M30 chart...a potential long somewhere in the rectangle zone with an ab=cd pattern present already helps the decision making...we shall see...but as said, your M5 trade can still work also

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM30.png Size: 18 KB
  • #338
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:00am Feb 3, 2017 9:00am
Quoting stevepatt
GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade {image}

GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade Result

+30 Pips +2R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Feb 17 GBP:JPY M5 Short Trade Result.png Size: 185 KB
  • #339
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:02am Feb 3, 2017 9:02am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/JPY M5 Short Trade Result +30 Pips +2R {image}
That's a fair trade mate...well done
  • #340
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:11am Feb 3, 2017 9:11am
Quoting Landline
{quote} I would expect something like attached M30 chart...a potential long somewhere in the rectangle zone with an ab=cd pattern present already helps the decision making...we shall see...but as said, your M5 trade can still work also GBPJPYM30.png;2171366 {image}

Hi Landline,

As I see it Sell Orders now exceed Buy Orders 141.000 - 140.800.

The latter part of yesterday and today we saw Sellers Accumulating their positions by taking the other side of the Buy Orders that had been sitting around 141.000.

As soon as all the Buy Orders had been Consumed the Market falls to the next Level of waiting Buy Orders, probably around the 140.00 RN.

At this point Sellers will either off load their Sells to the waiting Buyers or Accumulate more Sells to push the Market even lower, like today.

The thing is we don't now what they are planning until we can see it, the lower the TF you Trade the quicker it becomes visible.
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