(binned per thread starter's request) Beyond the Daily Chart -

Got it, I probably just have too narrow of an idea of fundamentals, always assumed fundamentals takes time to develop.

=)

Similar to technical trading, when the technical reasoning is gone, you are exposed to unknown territory, you need to get out. The principle also applies in fundamental positions. In fundamental trading, your reasoning is a lot different than technical patterns, there are a lot of unseen consideration and risk (in all aspects) for you to value and revalue, and most importantly to patiently wait (for the pieces to connect together) before you put up your next trading plan for the next few days, weeks or months. people often have mistaken trading fundamentally bases on 1 or 2 pieces of (breaking) news, that is incorrect in so many ways and hardly profitable in the long run.

Feel free to stay here and toss in your throughs in the future, Gamertrader.

USDJPY makes the push on the 113.00 level. Are we paying another visit down to 112.50 level in today's Asian section?

On USDJPY

What we already know,

1. Trump Risk - Immigration ban
2. Trump Risk - Mexican Wall
3. Trump trend has been fading away from its peak at the 118.50 level.

What is happening right now,

1. Trump administration hints a low dollar which helps US import.
2. Feb. FOMC does not give any hint of March Hike. Possible no. of hike in 2017 down to 2 from 3.

Taking my guesses, what is expected to happen in the next few days,

1. NFP is due in less than 48 hours. If it comes out bad, we should see a dive blow the 112.50 level.
2. Increasing chance of possibility Trump would hammer strong dollar as his next move.
3. 112.50 would be the last line of defence.

UJ has arrived at the 112.50 level.

Looks like the 112.50 is still the acting support before the NFP release in less than 24 hours.

Food for Thought
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9512457#post9512457

The reason I exit my short profit on UJ for a small profit is because ADP from Wednesday showed a huge spike on the upside which hints a better than expect NFP. A good NFP does no good to my short UJ position, so they had to be removed from my screen.

But I will be looking out for downside surprise from the NFP release. Once we are below 112.00 level, it would open up a bigger wound on the Trump Bull's belly.

So... get your daggers sharpened and be ready.

UJ drops 50 pips to 112.50 level because getting a warning on N Korea using the nuclear weapons.

On USDJPY

What we already know

Recent Data Release OOO Bullish OOO Bearish OOO Mix

1. O 2.3.17 - NFP better than expected however job; however the Labor Force Participation rate improved to 62.9% in January. In this case, NFP does NOT look as impressive as it seemed to be on its initial release.
2. OO 2.3.17 - The Unemployment rate is on its 3rd consecutive increasing month. Dec. 4.6%, Jan. 4.7% and Today Feb. 4.8%
3. O 2.3.17 - The latest round of Hourly rate is also weakened. PPL is NOT getting a raise!

Recent Risk Meter OOO Bullish OOO Bearish OOO Mix

1. O 2.3.17 Trump Global Risk - Trump trashed U.S.-Australia refugee deal.
2. O1.29.17 Trump Global Risk - Immigration ban
3. O1.26.17 Trump Global Risk - Trump proposed a 20% tax increase on Mexican exports to build the Mexican Wall
4. O Trump Risk - Trump bubble / Trump trend has been fading away from its peak at the 118.50 level as investors losing confidence in Trump administration.

What is happening right now OOO Bullish OOO Bearish OOO Mixx

1. O 2.3.17 After the NFP release, Fed comments continue supporting the 3-hike policy in 2017.
2. O Trump administration hints a low dollar which would help US's international trades.
3. O Feb. FOMC does not give any hint of March Hike. Possible no. of hike in 2017 down to 2 from 3.

Taking my guesses on what is expected to happen in the next few days,

1. This week is ending near the 112.50 level, and it seemed to me that bulls are losing its strength. If they need to fight back, they need to do it today as NFP still showing some sign of strength.
2. It seemed to me that the day of breathing down the 112.00 level is numbered.

Just settling down from having a baby since Feb. I am gonna start updated my long term threat again.
at the same time, FXCM got caught cheating by betting against its customer. Starting trading with the new broker in 2017 now. That's FXChoice!

Weak Dollar Outlook

1. trump wanted a weak dollar
2. trump wanted a low interest
3. latest CPI is in the crapper
4. retail decent 2 months in a roll
5. June hike possibility down under 50%
6. North Korea Issue
7. Russia Issue
8. Trump administration in-confidence

We have a very nice pull up from USDCAD this week. Let's see what happens next week.

AUDUSD gives a very nice drop off the 0.8 level.
Something worth looking at next week, too

I will be following up with these 2 pairs next week. Stay tuned.

Latest FOMC statement shows that December hike odds is up to 87.5%. This gives me a good reason to redirection my attention back to USDJPY as I continue to expect more from Fed on how we are going to do 2018. Let's stay tuned with the beat and see how it plays out in the next 3 months.

Next stop would be the 114.50 barriers held since January.

Once again picking up this thread for a longer-term trading opportunity on EURUSD and GBPUSD.



Both support a strong dollar bull returning.

Here to give an idea on USDJPY after its 5-day decent this week off the 114.50 level. I will be following up on this one while it continues heading lower.

Where are we on the weekly chart


Full idea is on Tradingview.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/yaeQA23v-Is-it-the-end-of-the-bull-s-day-for-USDJPY/