How do you cope with losing streaks? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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How do you cope with losing streaks?

  • #21
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:37am Jan 5, 2013 9:37am
Quoting pemully
Hi guys,

I wanted to ask you guys what you do to cope with losing streaks.I have studied my stats and discovered I have stopped trading severally after minor streaks and its affecting my growth as a trader.I incidentally try to tweak the system or start looking for a new one.

I know for systems that win less than 50% you can easily have streaks of over 20. would you still trade the system or you would quit in the middle and start looking for a new system? this system hopping means you will never be profitable.

my regards.
Proper backtests and planning. When I backtested, the worst losing streak I had was 6 trades in a row within a 3 year window. BUt i adjusted my risk management to handle 10 losing trades in a row. Even then make sure your worst case scenario losing streak doesn't completely take you out. In my case it would be -30%, still giving me a chance to go back to the drawing board and recover.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #22
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:21pm Jan 5, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting smikester
Here is a link to someone who has put some time and effort into a similar (probably better) post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post2212020
smikester,

Refer to my earlier post (#5), and you'll find that I chose the same topherhk88 post as you did.

I wonder what the odds are, against two people choosing the exact same post as a link (and one that's more than 4 years old), out of the 6.3 million posts at Forex Factory....... when asked to answer a given question.

Great minds surely think alike, haha.

Happy New Year to you, my friend.
David
  • #23
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:30pm Jan 5, 2013 1:30pm
Since the problem is totally psychological IF your mechanical system is truly profitable, might I recommend that you temporarily lower your risk to maybe 0.5%. Then after you have a string of wins, gradually move back up to a higher risk percentage.
Trend lines work.
  • #24
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:58pm Jan 5, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting hanover
smikester,

Refer to my earlier post (#5), and you'll find that I chose the same topherhk88 post as you did.

I wonder what the odds are, against two people choosing the exact same post as a link (and one that's more than 4 years old), out of the 6.3 million posts at Forex Factory....... when asked to answer a given question.

Great minds surely think alike, haha.

Happy New Year to you, my friend.
David
Great minds - Haha - well yours might be. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility, in fact it's likely, that I had your link open inadvertently when I was composing my post, went for a coffee, kicked the cat, came back and looked for similar threads for inspiration. Finding your link open, I read it properly and thought "I think we can use this" - and the rest is history.

I should be embarrassed I suppose but I'm not. Apologies to you and thanks for the good wishes. And a Happy New Year to you, too!

(no animals were hurt in the composition of this, or any other, post. (In fact I don't even own a cat (I don't remember owning one, anyway)))
Gone to a better place
  • #25
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:55pm Jan 5, 2013 4:55pm
Personally with a losing streak of 20 you haven't got a 50% win rate, your doing something wrong for those market conditions, might of worked before before the odds at 50% win rate of rolling 20 losers in a row is 1.04Mil : 1 so thats not likely to be a blip.

I'd go back to demo trading, it's less emotional you'll be able to see your error easier then back to Live but small when fixed, prove it then up the lots back to normal.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #26
  • Jan 5, 2013 5:02pm Jan 5, 2013 5:02pm
Hi Guys...
Interesting topic.
I think I don't have a "losing streaks" problem.
My open position is actually a cluster of 3-20 smaller trades, sometimes hedging each other.
I never ever open one big position. I use strict money management techniques while trading.
I trade with my EA software, so within a second I can alter all my trades only by touching a single line on my chart.
I can’t see individual open-close positions on my chart. What I see is only a computer calculation (simulation) of all position, both opened and closed during my trading day determined by single BE, SL and TP lines for all my positions.
So even I have 10 losing trades it's still "within" the boundaries.
I am more afraid of my tension to go "BIG" from time to time... this one trade can cost me more then 10 losing streaks in a row... hehe

-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #27
  • Jan 6, 2013 7:16am Jan 6, 2013 7:16am
Losing streaks are like most things in trading,they are all relative.Take the OPs example of his trading system,he knows from his sample tests that the likelyhood of a 21 trade losing streak is possible.In my view the chances of trading through this streak increase or decrease depending on where you are on the equity curve.Say you have 21 losing trades right off the bat at the start of the curve eating up 30% of your original funds?Would anybody have the stomach for that?Or what if you had doubled your account and then hit the losing streak,would that have made a differance to your ability to carry on trading?
  • #28
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:50am Jan 6, 2013 8:50am
Quoting pemully
...what you do to cope with losing streaks...I incidentally try to tweak the system or start looking for a new one...this system hopping means you will never be profitable...
Greetings pemully, and a happy and healthy new year to everyone here on FF!


You really have touched the core of what trading, and for that matter what FF really stands for.

Had you, hypothetically speaking, had a system that you know would give you a guaranteed return you would have no need (obviously) to post your heart ache here, neither would FF be a place where there are far more questions than answers.

Speaking for myself, it is really a quite simple matter:


Do you have an edge?

If so, what is it? Or in other words, what do you know you do better than the average trader?

Is it perhaps a psychological edge you have, for instance, are you more pain resistant to irrational (this being subjective of course) market behaviours than others?

Do you have a particular insight to certain market information? (news feeds, order flows, trade volume information, HFT algos on co-location, etc. etc.)

Or, do you have a methodology that makes sense to you, and therefore you understand it, you understand when and what you need to do, and you also understand that the markets can behave irrational at any given time for any given period of time?

Think about the above and you really should not have such a huge problem at all I think.

Best regards,

Adrian
  • #29
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:50am Jan 7, 2013 9:50am
took another loss today as per rules....updated my journal and overall happy to focus on the process rather than results.

I believe this is a new beginning.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #30
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:05am Jan 10, 2013 12:05am
Quoting pemully
took another loss today as per rules....updated my journal and overall happy to focus on the process rather than results.

I believe this is a new beginning.
Don't give up mate. I also had several losing trades this new year. However this is the part of this game. Wish you for success.
  • #31
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:34am Jan 10, 2013 6:34am
Sometimes losses can come from more than one place. I mean outside of trading.

For example..my VPS has gone offline twice in the last week. I don't know if it caused me losses directly, but I do know that it caused me to pass some profit levels and then not pull the trade out only to see the price retreat from those levels.

I'm scrapping the VPS service. The whole point was to have an always-on solution that wasn't vulnerable to power blinks and such....but I would never have a computer at home go down twice in a month. I think I can get more reliable performance from a full-time PC hard-wired to my router at home.

Frustrating.
  • #32
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:44am Jan 10, 2013 6:44am
Guys come on this is a game somebody loss is somebody's gain this is how it works but the fact is clever wins always and it is not about one time wins and losses it about how you're going to do in your entire life keep moving losses or wins just practice,dedicate,work hard that will keeps you in the right track because nothing can beat experience!!!
Quote
Gain or lose somebody is always a winner that is market
Gain or Lose there is always a winner named Market!!!
  • #33
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:45am Jan 10, 2013 6:45am
I say scrap what ever your doing, as it's not working and start from scratch, I'm already on my 2nd method of the year LOL

This 1 might be a keeper, well until next week!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #34
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:49am Jan 10, 2013 6:49am
Quoting FXRenegade
Sometimes losses can come from more than one place. I mean outside of trading.

For example..my VPS has gone offline twice in the last week. I don't know if it caused me losses directly, but I do know that it caused me to pass some profit levels and then not pull the trade out only to see the price retreat from those levels.

I'm scrapping the VPS service. The whole point was to have an always-on solution that wasn't vulnerable to power blinks and such....but I would never have a computer at home go down twice in a month. I think I can get more...
In the interest of fairness, are you absolutely sure that the VPS went down and not your broker's server.
I have had a few problems in the past with broker's server. No matter how good youir internet connection is, if the broker's server goes down, there is nothing you can do.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #35
  • Jan 10, 2013 6:50am Jan 10, 2013 6:50am
Quoting Alanamc
Don't give up mate. I also had several losing trades this new year. However this is the part of this game. Wish you for success.
thanks ....the system is now in swift recovery ....I'm trying not to get excited.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #36
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:01am Jan 10, 2013 7:01am
every time I lose a big trade I adopt a chinese mafia style method in order to remember my rules and stick to my trade plan, it sounds harsh but it works a treat. I cut a finger off
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #37
  • Jan 10, 2013 7:03am Jan 10, 2013 7:03am
Quoting Turveyd
I say scrap what ever your doing, as it's not working and start from scratch, I'm already on my 2nd method of the year LOL

This 1 might be a keeper, well until next week!!
no I can't do that.This system has been shown to work for decades.

How can I throw a system like that away?

I'm now testing a new swing system on my trading journal to supplement my basic system.

Ed seykota said one of the worst mistake a trader can do is to abandon a system in the depths of drawdowns when you knew such a drawdown would occur in your backtesting.

happy trading.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #38
  • Apr 16, 2013 1:30pm Apr 16, 2013 1:30pm
wow! what a difference 3 months can make.I can say I have really improved and can't recognize myself from 3 months ago.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #39
  • Aug 2, 2013 7:23am Aug 2, 2013 7:23am
the probability of losing streaks here
https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-...n=read&id=1467
  • #40
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:35am Jan 31, 2017 10:35am
hi guys

i believed each of educated trader has develop a system with a percentage of win trades are more than loss trades. By back testing the trading system itself,with a good risk reward ratio, WE BELIEVED our acc will grow POSITIVELY.

with UNEXPECTED LOSS IN A ROW for sure,definitely will affect our trading acc and the first question in our mind is
MAYBE MY TRADING SYSTEM IS NOT REALLY A PROFITABLE TRADING SYSTEM AND MAYBE IT DID NOT SUITE THE CURRENT MARKET????

My observation are:

1.Focus with 1 PAIR
2.SETUP that boost by a NEWS is not really a VALID SETUP-AVOID PAIR WITH NEWS/FALSE SETUP
3.Every TECHNICAL ANALYSIS must be combine with FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS to give a high percentage of VALID SETUP.
For fundamental analysis i just use CURRENCY STRENGTH METER or LIVE CURRENCY STRENGTH METER
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/currency-strength.php
4.I use FIBONACI RETRACEMENT LEVEL for TP and SL
5.Use the BEST R:R
6.VALID SETUP=TECHNICAL ANALYSIS+FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Cheers
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