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  • #481
  • Jan 31, 2017 3:33am Jan 31, 2017 3:33am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 21% /
Cot change signal indicating that prices may drop early this week, but the wider picture (last major cot extreme being bullish) shows that prices could easily continue their rally.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_Crude Oil.png Size: 175 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_Oats.png Size: 184 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_S&P-400.png Size: 174 KB
  • #482
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:42am Feb 14, 2017 7:42am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 21% /
Bullish cot change signal, but coming a bit late, prices have already jumped higher. The cot extreme is not that clear either, so I’d rather stay out of this market for now.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C - 243, LS – 657 report COT extreme /
Holly Sh*t! Now that is serious decline… Although we have got this very large COT extreme signal (bullish of course), we need to be careful: this extreme can easily become even larger the next couple of weeks, before we reach a bottom. Nevertheless, it is a great market that is providing us with trading opportunities, so let’s keep an eye on Cocoa!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – 112 report COT extreme /
Bearish cot extreme here. I wouldn’t jump in here, but if you are a regular LC trader than it’s good to know that the cot report supports lower prices for now.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_Cocoa.png Size: 207 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_Live Cattle.png Size: 183 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_RBOB Gasoline.png Size: 191 KB
  • #483
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:13am Feb 15, 2017 8:13am
regarding forex:
http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/02/...-long-all.html

COT reports reduced shorts but they actually increased...COT is a week late...
  • #484
  • Feb 20, 2017 6:26am Feb 20, 2017 6:26am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 32%, SS – 21% /
Large bearish cot change signal and I think we have a relatively good bearish extreme as well (77 report extreme) that could signal further decline in Wheat. On the long run, I’d be more careful, since there has been a significant bullish extreme in the market for a pretty long time.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Are prices able to go any higher? The cot report suggests that the answer to this question is: NO! But since we are talking about Crude Oil and we know that all time cot extremes can stay in a market for many weeks, we should be careful.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is clear, we may expect lower prices coming here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Cotton.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Crude Oil.png Size: 108 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Wheat.png Size: 149 KB
  • #485
  • Mar 13, 2017 9:31am Mar 13, 2017 9:31am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 32%, SS – 5% /
Without any help from the cot extreme picture (more or less neutral), we can only use the signal coming from the large change in Traders positions to help us in our trading decision. The signal is bullish, may affect prices early this week.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme widened further, which means that the chances of prices turning down is increasing.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C – 254, LS – 721 report COT extreme /
LS and C are definitely backing a higher prices are coming thesis, but it would be so nice if SS were also heavily pessimistic on Cocoa

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report10_Cocoa.png Size: 128 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report10_Cotton.png Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report10_NZD.png Size: 143 KB
  • #486
  • Mar 14, 2017 4:55pm Mar 14, 2017 4:55pm
Looks like the small specs in the NZ dollar are going to get their hands caught in the cookie jar.
  • #487
  • Mar 20, 2017 6:03am Mar 20, 2017 6:03am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 44% /
A very large cot change signal at a good resistance level. If you thing that the downtrend should continue, this may be a good opportunity to get in.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge All Time cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, the extreme can widen further.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 51 report COT extreme /
If you are considering going long in this market, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing the trade.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report11_MXP.png Size: 212 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report11_GBP.png Size: 199 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report11_Sugar.png Size: 183 KB
  • #488
  • Apr 22, 2017 4:40am Apr 22, 2017 4:40am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 26% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – 134 report COT extreme /
The cot change signal may have come a bit late, but with the cot extreme picture supporting a decline, we may still consider the opportunity arising in this market.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we have an easily readable situation, the picture is crystal clear. Maybe not right away, but going short sometime in the near future may look like a reasonable decision.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / LS – 527 report COT extreme /
LS have not been so bullish in Natural gas for approximately 10 years. Although not an all time cot extreme, but still pretty significant not to take a closer look at.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_Natural Gas.png Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_Live Cattle.png Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_MXP.png Size: 131 KB
  • #489
  • Apr 22, 2017 6:39am Apr 22, 2017 6:39am
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C 24%, LS 26% / COT Extreme / C, LS 134 report COT extreme / The cot change signal may have come a bit late, but with the cot extreme picture supporting a decline, we may still consider the opportunity arising in this market. Live Cattle COT Extreme / C, LS All Time COT extreme / Here we have an easily readable situation, the picture is crystal clear. Maybe not right away, but going short sometime in the near future...
Thanks Dunstan. Looks to be an interesting thread and will check it out. Thanks for the continued effort seeing that the thread started in 2012 and still going strong.
  • #490
  • Apr 24, 2017 6:59am Apr 24, 2017 6:59am
Hello Dunstan

Where/how can i learn to implement this data into my trading to follow the smart money makers.....

Thank you
j
  • #491
  • Apr 25, 2017 6:48am Apr 25, 2017 6:48am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Dunstan. Looks to be an interesting thread and will check it out. Thanks for the continued effort seeing that the thread started in 2012 and still going strong.
Hi aaven,

Thank you for your kind remark!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #492
  • Apr 25, 2017 6:57am Apr 25, 2017 6:57am
Quoting jdforex75
Hello Dunstan Where/how can i learn to implement this data into my trading to follow the smart money makers..... Thank you j
Hi jdforex75,

In the beginning of this thread I have shared some key tools and knowledge about their usage, so I would start out from there (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=376395). You may also find useful books and articles about cot analysis, here is a good link that gathers a few: books on commitments of trades (also: articles about cot report)

Here are some other useful links that could be helpful to you:

CFTC (that publishes the report)
Educational videos about COT report

Once you have gone through these, if you still have questions reamining, just let me know and I'll try to help!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #493
  • May 1, 2017 2:56am May 1, 2017 2:56am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31% /
Large bullish cot change signal (largest in the last 52 weeks) which could easily halt the decline in prices. Longer term picture? Last major extreme was bearish (last report), so we could see further decrease in prices.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further price increase expected in this market!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is very obvious, but caution is advised: prices can continue their rise for a couple more weeks (or even months) and the extreme will most certainly become even larger.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report17_Rough Rice.png Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report17_Wheat.png Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report17_Live Cattle.png Size: 106 KB
  • #494
  • May 15, 2017 4:42am May 15, 2017 4:42am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 46% /
The large change in traders positions is a bearish signal for us, but it is important to see the bigger picture. The last major extreme was an unquestionable bullish cot extreme signal and it is obvious that price have gone higher since. There is a long way to go to reach bearish extreme levels, so I would think that prices can go lower, but the main signal to follow is still the bullish extreme!

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 33% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Wow, what a bullish situation in the Canadian Dollar! Both of our main cot signals are very bullish: large change in Traders positions AND an All Time cot extreme! Does anyone need more than that??

Platinum
COT Extreme / C - 405, LS – 406 report COT extreme /
Very large bullish extreme here with possibly a good risk/reward trade opportunity due to the fact of close support levels.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 19_Platinum.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 19_CAD.png Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 19_GBP.png Size: 122 KB
  • #495
  • May 15, 2017 9:25am May 15, 2017 9:25am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi jdforex75, In the beginning of this thread I have shared some key tools and knowledge about their usage, so I would start out from there (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=376395). You may also find useful books and articles about cot analysis, here is a good link that gathers a few: books on commitments of trades (also: articles about cot report) Here are some other useful links that could be helpful to you: CFTC...

Thank you Dunstan!!!!!!!!!!
  • #496
  • May 16, 2017 2:56am May 16, 2017 2:56am
Quoting jdforex75
{quote} Thank you Dunstan!!!!!!!!!!
You are more than welcome

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #497
  • May 22, 2017 3:09am May 22, 2017 3:09am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
Both cot signals are bullish: we had a large change in Traders positions (this may have come a bit late / prices have already been rising the past week) and we have reached a relative bullish extreme.

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 17% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels have never been as high as they are now, we should expect prices to fall in the next couple of months.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have we reached a bottom? Last week prices have gone higher. If they can finish this week with the same result, we can speculate that the cot extreme signal has taken its effect.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 20_CAD.png Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 20_Natural Gas.png Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report 20_AUD.png Size: 128 KB
  • #498
  • Jun 5, 2017 7:56am Jun 5, 2017 7:56am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 15%, SS – 13% /
Bearish cot change signal this week, but the cot extreme signal is still further away from any significant bearish level, so this means that we can expect a little decline early this week, but in the medium time frame (a few weeks), we should see higher prices.

Euro
COT Extreme / C, LS, SS – 316 report COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal (have not seen this level in the market for over 6 years now) at a very nice place (resistance levels close).

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
A pretty significant bearish cot extreme signal suggesting that prices will head back on track, which is downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_MXP.png Size: 136 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_EUR.png Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_NZD.png Size: 126 KB
  • #499
  • Jun 5, 2017 8:17am Jun 5, 2017 8:17am
@Dunstan, Would you be willing to mark extremes on charts?
  • #500
  • Jun 5, 2017 11:41am Jun 5, 2017 11:41am
The Eur positioning is screaming at us.
This will not end well for retail.
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