Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

HEADS UP !!!

I am leaving at 10:15 AM to go to a Public Shareholders meeting so watch out for many events today. Please post whatever you need to while I am away. I will have my Samsung Tablet with me however if information is needed just post on our thread. News release at 10 AM EST and Europe goes home at NOON although Equity markets close at 11:30 AM EST.

Stay on your toes and use what you have learned in a calm rational way.

I am still around for another 90 minutes. Money Flow starts at 9:30 AM EST in 1 hour and 3 minutes.


Benjaminis

This Post Can Be Used for this Forex Trading Day good until 6 PM EST.

I start by posting these links as I have done before.

http://finviz.com/news.ashx

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
What Is Behind Today's Market Euphoria: JPM Explains
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 25, 2017 7:49 AM


With the Dow Jones set to open just 15 points away from 20,000, and likely to cross the key psychological threshold, here is one explanation for the overnight euphoria from JPM's Adam Crisafully.
Market update the solid US trading from Tues translated into gains across Asia and (so far) in Europe. As far as actual incremental news, there wasnt too much overnight although the big-cap earnings reports were mostly solid (highlights include Santander, STX, and TXN) while Japans Dec exports topped expectations. On the political front, Trump will make a series of immigration/national security announcements today but investors are still focused on the Big 3 of tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure spending.

Investors became very enthused about the infrastructure spending angle of the Trump agenda on Tues following Schumers $1T bill and the oil pipeline Oval Office media events but in reality the narrative around this topic changed very little in the last 36 hours (it remains the case in general that the gap between reality and expectations w/regards to Washington is still too large and this is a market risk).

Keep in mind that while everyone is focused on earnings and politics, the Fed will reassert itself back into the narrative soon the first FOMC decision of the year hits Wed 2/1, the Jan jobs report is Fri 2/3, Yellen will prob. conduct her semiannual testimony in early/mid-Feb, and Trump could soon announce his Fed nominees (including two board of governors and the vice chair of bank regulation).
And the macro big picture:
US macro update - the rally remains a function of growth and Washington. The growth part remains intact. The gap between Washington expectations and reality is still too large and while closing it will likely create headwinds for stocks it shouldnt be fatal to the SPX (taking Washington expectations fully out of the 18 EPS estimate would take the number from ~$145 now down to the mid/upper-$130s).
Source: JPM

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4039...-expect-yellen

Snippet:
Summary

Compare and contrast: the dollar and stocks after the December 2015 hike versus the dollar and stocks now.

That contrast should support a more hawkish Fed.

Here's what to expect from next week's FOMC statement.

Well the Trump/reflation trade is back on.

Or at least it is as of right now. Or at least as far as yields and stocks go. There are lots of caveats. Which is inevitable because we're all stuck in the narrative fallacy and I'm as guilty as they come in that regard.


Every day we're trying desperately to frame each and every market move and data print as part and parcel of the reflation story. Even though we know that every discrete piece of news and every blip on a chart can't possibly be a reflection of the maybe dead, maybe alive Trump trade.

Take Tuesday for instance. The rise in yields (NYSEARCA:TLT) and record close for stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY) was pitched invariably as evidence that the reflation narrative not only lives, but has legs. Who knows what the catalyst was for the melt-up (executive orders, a Democrat-sponsored $1 trillion spending bill, etc.), but at the end of the day it was right back to the same narrative to "explain" things.

Wednesday morning was no different. The global stock rally overnight was also framed as an extension of the Trump trade. Here, have a look (via Reuters):
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...9110226798.png
As noted above, we're so enthralled with the narrative that we don't even care if fully one third of it isn't applicable on a given day.
That is, if the reflation trinity is yields, the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP), and stocks (all rising together), then it seems odd to herald the "reignition" of the trade when one leg of it is conspicuously absent.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...8216385917.png
Anyway, one thing I wanted to point out ahead of next week's FOMC meeting is that when it comes to financial conditions, things are set up nicely for the Fed to adopt another hawkish lean.

Recall what Deutsche Bank said last week:
We have argued previously that the Fed should not and probably cannot tighten unless financial conditions are relatively easy. Moreover, the reaction of financial conditions to an initial round of tightening determines how much further the markets will allow the Fed to go.In this regard it is instructive to contrast the reaction of financial conditions to the year-end 2015 and 2016 rate hikes. When the Fed first raised rates in 2015, financial conditions were already restrictive. A strong bout of further tightening ensued after lift-off, with equities falling by more than 10% to their trough in mid-February. This risk-off trade, combined with rapidly diminishing Fed expectations, caused the curve to bull flatten. By contrast, the 2016 hike occurred when financial conditions were relatively benign, and they have eased modestly further after the hike.


The following table shows the attributions of the changes in our weekly FCI to its various components. None of the components has changed meaningfully since last December's hike, including importantly the dollar. By contrast, at the same time last year, approximately 3% dollar appreciation exacerbated the tightening effect of the equity sell-off.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...5407045457.png
In other words, the Fed is looking for a green light from financial conditions and that means rising stocks and an anchored dollar. Well they've gotten it this week. Have a look at an updated version of a chart I highlighted on Monday.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...8677845166.png
So, post-2015 December hike we got a stronger dollar and plunging stocks. Post-2016 December hike we've got a falling dollar and record highs for equities.
I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see another hawkish lean (although obviously not a hike) from the Fed this month given the prevailing conditions (assuming of course those conditions hold up over the next few days). For reference, here's a quick guide as to what you should expect from the January Fed via Goldman:

1. Constructive comments on second half growth. We currently forecast that real GDP increased at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q4, implying a 2.9% annualized gain for 2H 2016 as a whole. The FOMC statement should therefore continue to sound constructive on growth trends, repeating that "economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace", or simply saying that activity "continued to expand"
2. Few changes to description of inflation-related data. The previous statement said that inflation "has increased" but is still below target, "partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports". For the Fed's preferred PCE measures this comment remains accurate
3. But acknowledgement that inflation approaching target. That said, the description of the outlook for inflation in the statement looks increasingly stale. The current version says that inflation will return to target "over the medium term". However, headline CPI inflation reached 2.1% in December, and we expect headline PCE inflation to reach 2.0% by February
4. Policy still "accommodative". Before the December FOMC meeting we had thought the committee would tweak its description of the current stance of policy from "accommodative" to "modestly accommodative" or "moderately accommodative", given the frequent use of the latter wording in Fed officials' public comments. We would likely interpret a revision to "modestly/moderately accommodative" as a dovish shift.
5. No explicit mention of fiscal policy. Possible fiscal stimulus may be the single most important source of uncertainty for the economic outlook this year, but the FOMC does not explicitly include the issue in the list of factors it will use to assess appropriate monetary policy.

Given financial conditions and rising inflation, I'm not entirely the bank's expectations are hawkish enough.

That said, the statement will likely reflect the tug of war between the administration's push for a weaker dollar and the Fed's desire to normalize policy. Of course you'll have to read between the lines on that, because it's not like Yellen is going to come out and admit they're losing their independence.

Anyway, for our purposes here, the point is that if we're looking at financial conditions, things couldn't be much more different from where we stood this time last year. And that's important.

The further stocks rise while the dollar remains subdued, the easier financial conditions will get and that removes one excuse for staying put. Then again, raising rates will likely lift the dollar. There we go with the circular logic again.


Happy trading.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Good afternoon all ! Curious information, will look, listen. https://pro.agorafinancial.com/AWN_i...3jV&g=0&h=true

wayfarer

That man is Jim Rickards and he is one of the most sophisticated and knowledgeable men in the world. However he is also a businessman and promoter of his publications. He is that darn good however he always makes the same pitch and though the information is excellent and accurate the timing is never on at least so far.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards

Snippet:
Rickards' first book, Currency Wars, was published on November 10, 2011, by Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Group.[10] In it, Rickards argues that currency wars are not just an economic or monetary concern, but a national security concern. He maintains that the United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds and that greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself. Rickards explains that the Federal Reserve is involved in what he calls "the greatest gamble in the history of finance," via a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale.


Rickard's second book The Death of Money was released on April 8, 2014 and was a New York Time Best Seller. His third book The New Case for Gold was released on April 5, 2016.

His fourth book The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis was released on November 15, 2016.

In The Road to Ruin, Rickards propagates the idea which was first articulated by the Indian economist Arvind Kumar in the Indian newspaper Daily News and Analysis and which rang the alarm bells that the combination of negative interest rates and cashless currency was a design to destroy the savings of people. [11] [12] [13]
Selected articles

1. James G. Rickards, "A Mountain, Overlooked" The Washington Post (October 2, 2008). Retrieved May 16, 2011
2. Charles Duelfer and Jim Rickards, "Financial Time Bombs" The New York Times (December 20, 2008). Retrieved May 16, 2011
3. James Rickards, "How markets attacked the Greek piata" The Financial Times (February 11, 2010). Retrieved May 16, 2011 (registration required)
4. Arvind Kumar, "Banking transaction tax is a dangerous idea" Daily News and Analysis (February 5, 2014).
5. Arvind Kumar, "Why should India pay for the mess it didn't create?" Daily News and Analysis (April 11, 2016).
6. Arvind Kumar, "The government's economists must represent India" Daily News and Analysis (July 20, 2016).

I hope this puts things in the proper light.

Are you able to post any charts today ?


Benjaminis

Hi guys,

What do you think about the US Indices today? New highs and a gap!

SHOULD I GO FOR THE CORRECTION?

#ForexSignals
#ForexAnalysis

Free Forex Signals
https://telegram.me/Forexsignals

Forex Analysis and signals
https://telegram.me/joinchat/CoMzmj3EDh9-ZpKDge7dug

My look to the market : Here excellent example of work of "System of Benjaminis" ! The profitableness of 2 years grows together with ДОW30, and the cost of 2-years-old bonds falls. A money stream moves from bonds in Indexes . Gold falls, and USDJPY grows, because an investor goes to the high risk asset .

KeepCalmfx
When you get home can you please post updated charts on what we are following. How is the Ransquack account going ?

I hope to have news shortly on costs and time to put up beta website. There are some traders here that I have discussed it with. I am told that the cost should be around $1500 Canadian however awaiting quotes. I just finished my lunch and will head back to my office shortly.

I put on other positions in USD/JPY and Long Silver 5000 ounces. I also decided to increase my risk to 10% on US 30 because of my experience and convictions however I have no more than $11,000 US Dollars now in open margin as the 20% rule is a hard rule not to play with.

I have the experience to do it however the same rules apply of 6%

Once Dow 30 heads back to Earth when you scale in your positions use Risk Reward of 1 to 3


Benjaminis

Hi Benjamin

Here is the charts.
I like listening to Ransquack, it helps, but can not stream it from home, I have limited data bundle.

Will this work?

15 min US 10Yr T Note, US Index, US30, Gold, Silver, USDJPY, EURUSD

So, is the beta website, like a test version of you corporate website?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow...teid=rss&rss=1

Dow cracks 20,000 for first time—marks 2nd-fastest milestone run in history

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday hit the psychologically significant threshold of 20,000 within seconds of opening. Hitting the level represents a milestone for the blue-chip gauge and highlights a relatively speedy path higher for the stock market in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win in November.
The Dow DJIA, +0.81% is up about 9% since Trump’s Nov. 8 election victory, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.76% has gained nearly 7%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.91% has advanced roughly 8% during that period.

The equity rally is supported by expectations that Trump will unleash a raft of pro-business policies, including a rollback of regulations, tax cuts and fiscal spending. It remains to be seen if the Dow will close at 20,000. The gains for the Dow on Wednesday came after Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday to move forward with the construction of controversial infrastructure projects, Keystone XL and the Dakota Access pipelines, which offered a boost to stocks as it supported expectations that a ramp up in infrastructure spending—a boon for economic growth—would be one of the centerpieces of his administration.

If the Dow does finish at or above 20,000 it would mark the second-fastest 1,000-point move in history (42 days), since the 59-session span between late March and early July 2007 (see table below):
Check out a chart of that action below:
Goldman Sachs Group GS, +1.23% has been the biggest contributor the 130-year old gauge’s recent rise, contributing about 30% of its 1,000-point gain since early November.
On Wednesday, Boeing Co.’s BA, +4.68% more-than 3% rise was contributing more than 40 points to the Dow’s record run in early trade.
Check out: Dow’s 20,000 dalliance is a reminder that it’s the best active fund ever fashioned

Hi Benjamin, when you say you decided to increase your risk on the US30 to 10%, does that mean you have more than 3 positions open or did you increase your Stop loss to more than $1000 loss?

Excellent Question !!!

I have on 5 Positions now of US 30 so my Maximum Loss is technically 2% times 5 Positions which is 10% however at times I use a special skill that I have obtained since I can remove my STOP LOSS and trade around my DRAW DOWN Position. My first major account with Real Funds of $100,000 US Dollars that I traded at PFG BEST was the wildest Forex trading in my life and I was still a rookie with 3 years of Demo Forex Trading and 2 years of Trading only with Real Funds. This was my first chance to trade for one client. I did 1502 Forex trades in exactly 35 days. I can send you the PDF File of these trades because no person should accept my word on what I say that I did however I did do it. I was going Long EUR/USD and Short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and so when I had a losing position on a DRAW DOWN then I traded around the DRAW DOWN so by that Strategy not recommended for anyone including myself , I was able to not have a loss in my first 673 Forex Trades. 673 In A Row !!! That was insane. I closed all 1502 Forex trades with a Net Profit of over $19,000 US Dollars and I had about $17,000 US Dollars in Rollover fees.

I could not afford to blow my first large Account because if I did I am not sure how I would have reacted so I made it after all.

What I am saying is that I have a large DRAW DOWN in my 3 First Positions of US 30 and added 2 more Positions so now I have 5 instead of 3.

DO NOT DO THIS UNLESS YOU HAVE MY SKILL SET AND MY CONVICTION OF DIRECTION.

I hope that explains it. I have a Total DRAW DOWN on my 10 Positions of around $7000 US Dollars.

UPDATE at 3:20 PM , my DRAW DOWN is only $5000 US and my Net Unrealized Loss for day is $2000 US as 5 of my most recent positions are in profit. I have 4 Positions of SHORT USD/JPY of 100 units and one Long Position of 5000 ounces of Silver.


Benjaminis

Beta means a website being tested for flaws. I am having my corporate website designed along the lines of this excellent website , Forex Factory.

There would be sections in my company website where admission is only through User Name and Password. One difference I will try to have is for everyone to register so that they can post on the threads. I will have a section for a webinar and another section for a live trading room. I will have a monthly Forex Trading Contest with $5,000 US in real prizes. The contest will start at 5 PM EST and end the next day.

Anyone who has subscribed to this thread gets a FREE LIFETIME PASS. The maximum subscription fee will be $50 US a month with no contracts needed.

Any ideas that you think of please share it with me. Thanks.


Benjaminis

I am going to close 5 of my Positions so I avoid the 3 Day Rollover Costs on Wednesday. My profits are around $1500 US

I will post the results later.

I am tired as I got up at 3:22 AM today so over 12 hours of a very hectic day.

THE RESULTS !!!

117543979USD/JPY100,0001/24/17 1:14 PM113.676 Mktd102736974001
1/25/17 3:55 PM 113.311322.12-8.000.00-3.400.00310.72Cd102736974001
117584811USD/JPY100,0001/25/17 4:16 AM113.735 Mktd102736974001
1/25/17 3:55 PM 113.314371.53-8.000.000.000.00363.53Cd102736974001
117606553USD/JPY100,0001/25/17 9:31 AM113.799 Mktd102736974001
1/25/17 3:55 PM 113.310431.56-8.000.000.000.00423.56Cd102736974001
117623880XAG/USD5,0001/25/17 11:18 AM 16.927 Mktd102736974001
1/25/17 3:55 PM16.974 235.000.000.000.000.00235.00Cd102736974001
117624060USD/JPY100,0001/25/17 11:19 AM113.796 Mktd102736974001
1/25/17 3:55 PM 113.322418.28-8.000.000.000.00410.28Cd102736974001
Total:1,778.49-32.000.00-3.400.001,743.09
Posted at statement period of time:1,778.49-28.000.00-3.400.00

MY PROFIT WAS NET $1743.09 US Dollars !!!


Benjaminis

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...of-market.html

Snippet:
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25, 2017
Staying on the Right Side of the Market
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O2354KndH...TICK012417.jpg
Let's start with a moment of review:

The NYSE TICK ($TICK) is the number of stocks trading on upticks minus the number trading on downticks on a high frequency basis. (It's updated about every second on my platform). It's a sensitive measure of market strength and weakness, because it captures the balance between stocks trading strongly (on upticks) or weakly (on downticks) throughout the day. Very often we'll see diminished buying ahead of market tops and vice versa--a useful heads up.

Another way of looking at the data is to keep a running total of upticks vs. downticks through the day, similar to an advance/decline line. So we're adding the $TICK readings over time and observing changes in buying and selling from the direction and slope of the resulting line.

Above we can see the Cumulative TICK line for yesterday, January 24, 2017. Notice how, early in the session, we started with buying interest and steadily moved higher through the day. In other words, buying interest was dominating selling interest right out of the gate. Seeing that lopsided demand/supply situation provides us with useful information to ensure we stay on the right side of the market.

Our job as traders is to read market patterns and make decisions accordingly. Our job is not to impose our frameworks on markets and trade in ways that fit our theories (and that will make us look smart). Are you following the market, or are you expecting the market to follow you? Very often, that's the difference between successful and unsuccessful trading.

Further Reading: Tracking the Market with US TICK
.Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 3:42 AM