Most traders fail because of no discipline! | Page 13 | Forex Factory

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  • #241
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:52pm Jan 24, 2017 10:52pm
random popup...the financial markets are all zero sum games.. but in the case of the SQ airlines CEO interview w/e he might've not viewed the position as a loss because he gained something in return via another hedge he made that we might not be clear about.. just my 2 cents.
  • #242
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:04pm Jan 24, 2017 11:04pm
Quoting gamertrader
The financial markets are all zero sum games..
The stock market is not a zero sum game, due to its never ending upside bias. It creates wealth for all (meaning we all get richer), as long as the economy continues to grow and the inflation remains stable and low.
  • #243
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:14pm Jan 24, 2017 11:14pm
Quoting RondaRousey
Randomness equates to luck. For example a person winning the lottery is totally random. So even in a random market someone wins. A zero sum games assumes no one wins in the end. It is theory. In reality, it does not matter if the market is random or not random. Someone wins. When you can identify a non random event and know how to make money from it and do it consistently, it becomes trading skill and talent.
there you have a mistake in your thinking. a zero sum game assumes not that noone wins. it only assumes, that when you calculate buyers and sellers and broker together, there is a zero on the end. plus from some is minus from others.
there can be many winner and many losers, only one winner and many losers, one big loser and rest winners........ zero game says nothing about this. only the cumulated effect of zero to the market.

thatswhy "kpclick" has the same problem with his idea. hedging, buying for future savety, all this is the same, its simple buying/selling when there is someone on the other site (you cant buy if not someone sells and so on...). (done over cash market,future, option, what ever).

i know this topic is not easy, but its neccesary to understand it one time full, then you will see fast that there is no topic any more , because so its the market.

this is the advantage of the forexmarket, it dont changes market, it dont press money (no inflation can come because of more money in market), its only like lottery or poker/casino playing - giving money from on hand to other hands.... (offcourse the luck and skill level is different)

like in poker/casino, the more experienced take the money from the less experienced and the people who need secure currencies because of any reasons.
  • #244
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:14pm Jan 24, 2017 11:14pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The stock market is not a zero sum game, due to its never ending upside bias. It creates wealth for all (meaning we all get richer), as long as the economy continues to grow and the inflation remains stable and low.
Next false believe. I can prove it. Do you care to comment on this stock? Economy continues to growth, but this stock is dead, forever. Surely a lot of continues wealth creation:

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  • #245
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:25pm Jan 24, 2017 11:25pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Next false believe. I can prove it. Do you care to comment on this stock? Economy continues to growth, but this stock is dead, forever. Surely a lot of continues wealth creation: 09-30-10-enron.gif;2154555 {image}
i think, he spokes about a different thing:

in stock market , when prices go up, here can be winners only (by standard share trading, not shortsellers,......). so the wealth is increasing, more money in the whole market, ...

in forex market this cant happen because of the zero game effect. at all time any win has a loss in same (minus fee) amount on the opposite side.

so markets are different, you need to know the economic and mathematic background for each. some can produces some problems in rich/poor relation, inflation, ..... - some (like forex) cant because of the zero game effect (like casino, pokersgames, lottery,......).
  • #246
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:35pm Jan 24, 2017 11:35pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Next false believe. I can prove it. Do you care to comment on this stock? Economy continues to growth, but this stock is dead, forever. Surely a lot of continues wealth creation: 09-30-10-enron.gif;2154555 {image}
This is getting absurd by the minute.

On average, the stock market returns about 10% on investment per year. That means that, overall, disciplined buy and hold stock holders are getting richer and richer every year, even if some stocks like Enron drop to almost zero.

That also proves that fundamentals are virtually worthless as far as trading is concerned. Economics, politics forget all that crap, you will never make any money with that stuff, just look at the charts and they will tell you what is really going on and what to do next, assuming you spend enough years studying them.
  • #247
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:58pm Jan 24, 2017 11:58pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} This is getting absurd by the minute. On average, the stock market returns about 10% on investment per year. That means that, overall, disciplined buy and hold stock holders are getting richer and richer every year, even if some stocks like Enron drop to almost zero. That also proves that fundamentals are virtually worthless as far as trading is concerned. Economics, politics forget all that crap, you will never make any money with that stuff, just look at the charts and they will tell you what is really going on and what to do next, assuming...
The only absurd is your inability to express your toughs more precisely. Which is direct result of closed mind.

When you say "the stock market" what do you mean? Specific company, specific index, specific exchange, specific industry average? You see, you make generalization and assumptions step by step and in between.

As I said, you have closed mind and that is why you stick to your charts, that is easy, everybody can open, see and make a decision to enter a position and pray for luck and statistics...

But obviously you dig yourself mentally in this position that nothing will convince you to consider otherwise and you will fight to the tooth to prove otherwise... rigid mind = mind of speculator looser
  • #248
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:06am Jan 25, 2017 12:06am
Im not sure if narcissism is a trait of forex traders, or FF users..... So perplexing.
  • #249
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:44am Jan 25, 2017 1:44am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} This is getting absurd by the minute. On average, the stock market returns about 10% on investment per year. That means that, overall, disciplined buy and hold stock holders are getting richer and richer every year, even if some stocks like Enron drop to almost zero. That also proves that fundamentals are virtually worthless as far as trading is concerned. Economics, politics forget all that crap, you will never make any money with that stuff, just look at the charts and they will tell you what is really going on and what to do next, assuming...
Give uppp
  • #250
  • Jan 25, 2017 2:02am Jan 25, 2017 2:02am
Never argue against a fundamental trader
  • #251
  • Edited 2:42am Jan 25, 2017 2:09am | Edited 2:42am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} No, it is not a matter of perspective and it is not the end of story. What you are saying is that you have some sort of price setup (most likely based on technical analysis) and based on some back testing and statistics you are willing to gamble in hope that past performance will repeat in the future. Also what you are saying is that you are willing to execute this strategy with super-human discipline (because you think discipline is the most important haha), even if it goes against you, because you are not willing to consider other factors...
I get the message, your one of the most knowledgeable trader at FF so good luck to you, hope you become a millionaire trader soon! I will respect your opinion but dont talk as if you are the only one who knows everything about the market. If your making money on your approach then continue doing it, but I am also making money on my approach so I will also continue what I do best, but dont talk as if your are absolutely sure that mechanical system fails, you are the one that has a closed mind. Maybe you dont understand the word RESPECT and your ego goes beyond your head!
  • #252
  • Jan 25, 2017 3:25am Jan 25, 2017 3:25am
  •  hak444
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: knowing is not enough,we must apply | 41 Posts
When Mark Douglas use to say that most screen based traders (retail) don't have any idea about how prices move, i thought that he was just exaggerating but now i think he was right. Because if the traders knew how prices actually move they wont argue over such topic as "trading is a zero sum game" and wont be making typical trading errors.
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I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
  • #253
  • Jan 25, 2017 6:35am Jan 25, 2017 6:35am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} there you have a mistake in your thinking. a zero sum game assumes not that noone wins. it only assumes, that when you calculate buyers and sellers and broker together, there is a zero on the end. plus from some is minus from others. there can be many winner and many losers, only one winner and many losers, one big loser and rest winners........ zero game says nothing about this. only the cumulated effect of zero to the market. thatswhy "kpclick" has the same problem with his idea. hedging, buying for future savety, all this is the same,...
And what exactly is your point about zero sum game and the art of speculation? Your writing is confusing. Your knowledge about zero sum game is confused. Your analogy of forex and poker is confused. It's hard to understand your English writing. Please spell correctly.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #254
  • Edited 7:59am Jan 25, 2017 7:07am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} And what exactly is your point about zero sum game and the art of speculation? Your writing is confusing. Your knowledge about zero sum game is confused. Your analogy of forex and poker is confused. It's hard to understand your English writing. Please spell correctly.
no problem, you can ask me whats question you have about, so i can help you to understand it.

sorry, but english is not my first language, and my grammar is often bad. and i often tend to write to fast, bad habit as programmer ;-)
i will try to write it more easy, maybe you can help me with questions in what topic you have excactly problems. if you cant read it because of my english, i will correct it, but i really try to write possible to understand. because i am from germany i sometimes translate some words like in german maybe, and then it sounds bad in english.

you did wrote this "A zero sum games assumes no one wins in the end." i did show you that you are completly wrong with this sentence, because a zero sum market has nothing to do with no ons wins or lose, only the sum of all dont win or lose because its nothing more then changing same money from one hand to other. there are many winners and losers inside. on the opposite side there are markets like stock markets, that can create money. its a economic thing, interesting that many people who think about economic trading behavior get about this information slower. its an important point for macroeconomic like interests.

and speaking about "why trader lose in forex market " is like speaking about " why people breath". it is the game, it cant be changed. when there is a market, where you transfer money from one to the other hand (zero sum market), someone needs to lose when someone wins. if you win then other have to lose. thats the point so many never ever will understand and why a golden super trading system with biggest wins cant exist, if many know about it or it will traded with big volume: if many trade this system, because its so famous and extrem winning chance, noone will do the opposite trade, so no trades will come at this point and the system will break. at a second point: many people will never come to points , when own trades change the market and charts (in 1 min chart faster then in 5 min chart offcourse, and in smaller currencies faster then in main currencies), so their own system rules by charts change because there own volume traded in the market. yes the forex market is big, but not that big at a special time point (believe it or not). future market are even worst. maybe some dont know what i speak about, but some day i hope they come to this point, and will see this fact (after many good trading years) and think about this again.

and to your last point, poker and forex are one of the most connected markets (if you can both name markets) i have ever seen.
you have a fee for the house each round, like in forex. money dont get more, it only changes from one hand to an other hand. experienced poker gamers win on the long hand against unexperienced because of there experience and learning curve often. if you dont have a good moneymanagement you will lose. luck will allways be important, because you play with unknown informations (in poker you read the cards and players, in forex you read the charts and prices and economic players).
i really cant see your point because of poker and forex are a little bit same in some points.

the most important thing someone needs to recognise in forextrading: if you will start to win (when you lost before) - because of any reason like learning, bether moneymanagement and so on...... - some other needs to lose to pay your win. its even more, because you dont lose any more , the wins other had from you dont be any more. so for a single person the thread topic is ok, for the forex market it will be all time the same, because you simple need some to fail that other dont fail. if there are no losers there are no winners in zero sum markets.
  • #255
  • Jan 25, 2017 7:58am Jan 25, 2017 7:58am
Does anyone have a system that helps a trader deal with lack of discipline ?
  • #256
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:00am Jan 25, 2017 8:00am
Quoting price777999
Does anyone have a system that helps a trader deal with lack of discipline ?
write down, what lack of discipline you have, and i tell you how to avoid.
  • #257
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:10am Jan 25, 2017 8:10am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} no problem, you can ask me whats question you have about, so i can help you to understand it. sorry, but english is not my first language, and my grammar is often bad. and i often tend to write to fast, bad habit as programmer ;-) you did wrote this "A zero sum games assumes no one wins in the end." i did show you that you are completly wrong with this sentence, because a zero sum market has nothing to do with no ons wins or lose, only the sum of all dont win or lose because its nothing more then changing same money from one hand to other....
I think most people when they repeat the, "forex is a zero sum game," don't understand that, that is meant overall. Since when someone wins someone is on the other side losing. The market it'self is, "zero sum."

It doesn't mean traders can't make money because forex is so hard or something or that the market will eventually take it all back if you keep trading. Their are traders that consistently make money and keep it.

But, thats why people usually repeat over used phrases like that out of context, because they just got their ass handed to them in a trade and need an excuse to as to why they lost.

I think if you have to worry about whether or not FOREX is a zero or negative sum game, it misses the point entirely. There is oodles of money to be made by anyone with the right skill set. There is more than enough to go around for everyone who can cut it.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #258
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:13am Jan 25, 2017 8:13am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} I think most people when they repeat the, "forex is a zero sum game," don't understand that, that is meant overall. Since when someone wins someone is on the other side losing. The market it'self is, "zero sum." It doesn't mean traders can't make money because forex is so hard or something or that the market will eventually take it all back if you keep trading. Their are traders that consistently make money and keep it. But, thats why people usually repeat over used phrases like that out of context, because they just got their ass handed...

yes, thats why i was correcting your big mistake sentence ("A zero sum games assumes no one wins in the end.")!!!!!

you say the same then i say, only one sentence from you was complete wrong, so i corrected it!

offcourse many can win, as many enough loss ,all is possible. noone ever said anything against this, only you told all the time this topic.
we spoke about the forex market, and you from a single person. offcourse all know that a single person can win, nothing amazing about this. but what has this to do with a zero sum market?? this is in every market and living situation.
  • #259
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:14am Jan 25, 2017 8:14am
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The stock market is not a zero sum game, due to its never ending upside bias. It creates wealth for all (meaning we all get richer), as long as the economy continues to grow and the inflation remains stable and low.
My mistake, you are right that technically the stock market has an infinite bias upwards which makes it not a zero sum game but at the same time this is due to the fact that people continually insert new chips into the table via more money etc. If we did not took inflation into account just like you said I would argue that the purchasing power of the valuation of the stock market would still result in a zero sum game. But I would definitely like to hear your thoughts
  • #260
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:15am Jan 25, 2017 8:15am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Where do you guys get those ideas? Forex market IS NOT zero sum game! Forex market exists to facilitate international trade. Simply as that. Just because some speculators decided to gamble on it, it does not mean it is any kind of the game for all participants. Let me give you a real life example. Couple months ago Singapore Airlines hedged contract for fuel at $80 per barrel (if I recall correctly), when price was at around $40 and was heading toward $20. Do you recon they somehow "lost", because they paid such a high price and some speculator...
just wondering is this the article thingy you mentioned? https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/si...080000782.html
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