Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

hi B ,cool
the better trade will be ,over distance
uj -73
gu +107

Attachment g
US DOLLAR

Now we turn to Fundamentals and Technicals as well concerning US 30. The US 30 should go to 18,000 at least. For us it does not matter when. We have established the Trend just like we have established the Trend for USD/JPY which is also down towards 110.00

We enter Trades sometimes many times daily when we see the pattern like I did earlier today.

We have direction and we have correlation and we have Risk Management now once the Forex trader understands that and is disciplined we have a new member of the "5% Club"

Any questions or comments are appreciated. Can we submit names for our club ? One might be to make a point is The Holy Grail Club. That should draw some heat on polite Forex Factory. All suggestions welcome.


Benjaminis

Good area on your chart Rocky. I do have some counter trades open here. To keep the thread on track...if and after the bounce on usdx, I'll be looking to get short UJ and DOW30 in the direction of the money flow.

Closed positions for today, one open position still on the US30.

If the U.K. Supreme Court rules against her on Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May plans to rush a short bill through Parliament to trigger Brexit by her self-imposed March 31 deadline.
The court is due to give its verdict on a government appeal against a High Court decision that May should seek the approval of lawmakers before invoking Article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty to formally start Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc.
Defeat for May would raise the risk of delay to her Brexit timetable should legislators slow down the passage of the bill by attaching amendments; such changes might also tie her hands also when it comes to the nature of the divorce. A majority of lawmakers in the House of Commons supported the “Remain” campaign in the June 23 referendum and many members of the unelected upper chamber, the Lords, have expressed concern about the result.
“The difficulty will be getting a bill through Parliament without it being amended,” Alan Renwick, deputy director of the Constitution Unit at University College London, said in an interview. “In the Commons, it’s clearly the case that there are quite a few Conservatives who would like there to be more conditions on Brexit, and it’s a matter really of whether they are able to coalesce around any amendments. There’s a larger majority that are unhappy with the direction things are going in the House of Lords.”
May has been seeking to avoid a parliamentary vote on triggering Brexit because of the risk of lawmakers bogging down her plans. Her administration has signaled it’s prepared a tightly worded bill designed to give as little opportunity for amendment as possible for the eventuality of the court ruling against it.
https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/G...01-22_2d_m.png
Single Market
The likelihood of amendments has risen since May last Tuesday gave a speech outlining her strategy for the pullout, including withdrawal from the EU’s single market and from full membership of the bloc’s customs union — essentially a so-called hard Brexit. In the Commons, it will be up to Speaker John Bercow to decide which amendments, and how many, to accept for debate.
The small opposition Liberal Democrats have said they will oppose triggering Article 50 unless there’s a pledge to hold a second referendum on the eventual results of the Brexit talks. The biggest opposition party, Labour, has said it’ll seek to improve any Brexit legislation, but party leader Jeremy Corbyn has promised not to stop Article 50 from being triggered.
“We will not block Article 50 but we will seek to amend the bill,” Corbyn told Sky News television on Sunday. “We are consulting on amendments to the bill which will include issues on rights, on protections and on market access.”
Complicating the issue is the fact that the High Court didn’t specify what form parliamentary approval should take: whether via a simple motion or through a bill which would have to go through at least five stages in each house.
https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/E...01-22_2d_m.png
‘Uncharted Waters’
Then there’s also the chance that the court may rule the semi-autonomous legislatures in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland must also have a say, according to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.
“We’re in such uncertain territory here: it’s really absolutely uncharted waters,” Barnard said in an interview. “This is not a simple matter, particularly where the devolved administrations are concerned. What each of those devolved administrations is saying is there needs to be a legislative consent motion from their respective administrations.”
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in Monday’s Daily Record newspaper that “no matter what the court decides,” she intends to “make sure the Scottish Parliament has the chance to vote on the question of triggering Article 50.”
Ulster Elections
Any requirement that a vote is needed in Northern Ireland is complicated by the fact that the assembly there has been dissolved and won’t reconvene until after elections on March 2.
Deutsche Bank AG strategist Oliver Harvey sees a 50 percent chance the government loses the appeal but wins the parliamentary vote. There is a 30 percent chance the court says the semi-autonomous administrations or the European Count of Justice must be consulted and a 20 percent chance the government loses the parliamentary vote, he said.
Nomura International Plc’s Jordan Rochester sees a further possibility of a delay if the court rules that Parliament must first pass the government’s planned Great Repeal Bill, enshrining existing EU legislation in British law. “This would be a complex task and take several months on its own,” he said in a note to investors.
‘Swift Passage’
The Commons voted last month in favor of a motion supporting May’s deadline for the trigger, while also requiring her to allow more scrutiny of her plans. For former Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, a member of the premier’s Conservative Party who backed “Remain” in the referendum and has pushed for a softer Brexit, it’s unlikely May will lose a vote in Parliament.
“People have had their say; 17 million people gave us a verdict last year, and we should give the bill swift passage through the House of Commons and House of Lords,” Morgan said in a phone interview. “It’s not good news for democracy if Parliament is seen to be blocking the triggering of Article 50.”
Morgan said she expects lawmakers to lay down “probing amendments,” not in the expectation that they’ll be approved, but rather to highlight issues they or their party feels strongly about. For the Liberal Democrats, it may be to mention a second referendum; Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party may want to refer to its ambition for independence, and Labour may seek to protect workers’ rights, she said.
Bloomberg
http://www.marketpulse.com/wp-conten...eu-300x200.jpg

Jeffrey Lacker, the hawkish president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Monday he is worried inflation could surge unless the U.S. central bank raises interest rates faster than his fellow policymakers anticipate.
“Right now I think we are at risk of getting behind the curve, so lately I’ve been an advocate of pushing rates up a little more aggressively than my colleagues,” Lacker said in an interview on WCVE, a Richmond public radio station.
Most of the Fed’s policymakers see the central bank raising rates three times this year.
Lacker, who plans to retire on Oct. 1, has for the last several years argued that the Fed should raise rates to prevent a spike in inflation even though it has lingered well below the central bank’s 2 percent target for most of that period.
via Reuters
http://www.marketpulse.com/wp-conten...le-300x211.jpg

Nice posts Rocky007

Ben-- I have read from another site that states that the Ausi dollar is peaking or topping out and if it breaks lower against the swill frank -- this would mean a stock market crash..... and on the other hand if price jumps up above .765 then - RISK is ON- then expect the stock market to go much higher.

would like your opinion on this
thanks in advance

This is a really good thread and what FF needs proper fundamental analysis
By really going into it you become aware of what is likley to happen in the future
So when things happen you are already in the trade
Obviously it is important to focus on the things that the market is looking at
Look forward to swapping ideas

It is highly unlikely that the Dow 30 or any equity markets can go much higher. The Aussie dollar depends on Interest rates of course and Gold. The USD/CHF is a safe haven currency and as the Dow 30 heads to 18,000 MONEY will be parked there.

Bottom Line the KEY is US Bonds and Equities and the US Dollar index.


Benjaminis

Welcome aboard. It is nice to have you join us.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
El-Erian Warns "Investors Are Underestimating Sudden Policy Shifts"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 23, 2017 1:45 PM



Separate comments last week from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed an ongoing change in the policy configuration facing their two systemically important central banks: The recognition of a transition in both economic conditions and prospects, along with questions about robustness and durability.

For now, Mohamed El-Erian notes, their response is to maintain a stimulative direction to their policies, and to use verbal guidance that avoids rocking the boat. Although it's consistent with investor expectations, the forward-looking policy path may not be as secure and smooth as market pricing would suggest, however.

As we noted previously, if the past 20 years of global historical data is anything to go by, that 'awakening' of economic policy uncertainty is very bad news...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._breslow_0.jpg

And now, it appears Mohamed El-Erian agrees that markets and market participants are missing this uncertain picture...
Facing an unusually timid cyclical response and a challenged structural one, central banks have again demonstrated that they would rather err on the side of too much stimulus rather than too little, despite the risks entailed for future financial stability and the efficient allocation of resources. And that is what traders and investors have gotten to expect after observing and internalizing central banks' preferences over the last few years. Indeed, in the case of the U.S., market pricing related to the policy rate still suggests less tightening in 2017 than the three hikes indicated by the Fed at its most recent policy meeting and reiterated in subsequent statements by individual Fed officials. These more subdued interest-rate expectations also extend beyond 2017, to the medium-term path of policy rates, again notwithstanding what Fed officials have signaled about that.

But the more central banks persist with this approach amid changing economic and fiscal conditions, the greater the potential need for a sudden shift in monetary policy that, while economically warranted, could be quite jarring for markets. And it is a possibility that investors may be underestimating as judged by market metrics, including measures of implied volatility.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...123_unc1_0.jpg

While the upward movement in yields further out the curve for U.S. government bonds would likely be contained by arbitrage flows from Europe and Japan, the foreign exchange market does not benefit from such a moderating influence. As such, the dollar could be being set up for some consequential volatility.
In formulating policies -- especially in an unusually fluid global economy -- El-Erian warns central banks must consider not just what can go well but also the mistakes they could end up making, albeit inadvertently. This entails an effort to limit possible known mistakes to those they can afford to make and undo relatively easily over time.


Benjaminis

Â
1st thing that came up in my mind after reading your post was "The Holy Grail experience" or "The Holy Grail way for life" or "Trading with the Holy Grail"

Many thanks Benjaminls

Iro the name
5% Club works for me

Trading with the Holy Grail - Money Flow

2103 GMT - USD remains soft as participants wait to see detail on fiscal policy initiatives from the White House. Overnight, US President Donald Trump used his Presidential powers to officially withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While there was no knee-jerk currency market reaction, US treasury yields declined on the news, as did US equities, says CBA. US ten-year yields are currently 6 basis points lower at 2.39% and two-year yields 4 basis points lower at 1.14%. Trump did repeat that taxes will be cut "massively" which is the cornerstone of CBA's bullish 2017 USD outlook, and that he will implement "a very major border tax" on imports. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
20:54 GMT - AUD under-performed against the major crosses in overnight trade, despite rising commodity prices, and firmer Asian currencies, but remained resilient against the USD, CBA says. Lower European and US equity markets as well as Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the Trans-pacific Partnership likely added to AUD's intra-day under-performance, CBA adds. CBA doesn't anticipate a larger dampening effect on AUD from the US decision to withdraw from the TPP. Australian 4Q inflation data due Wednesday will generate more of reaction in AUD. AUD/USD now 0.7572. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
19:37 GMT - Broad-based weakness in the US dollar wasn't enough to lift the AUD/USD to a new multimonth high. The AUD/USD was at 0.7564 early in Asia on Tuesday, short of the 0.7600 level that would have marked its highest level since Nov 11. Still, Westpac Institutional Bank thinks there is plenty to comfort traders in Tuesday's session. "Short-term rising support lies at 0.7535 with more solid support in the 0.7430-0.7450 area," Westpac says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
14:36 ET - Bolivian President Evo Morales shuffles his cabinet, with the main change being to his Foreign Relations Ministry. David Choquehuanca is replaced by Fernando Huanacuni at the Foreign Relations Ministry. Choquehuanca held the position since Morales took office in 2006. Morales maintained Economy Minister Luis Arce, as well as his hydrocarbons, mining and defense ministers. ([email protected]; @duberyan)
19:26 GMT - NZD/USD rose to 0.7216 early in Asia on Tuesday, reflecting mixed views on the direction of the greenback. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said the outlook for the US dollar appears to hinge on the perceived policy mix that the Trump administration will be able to implement. "A 'very major' border tax should theoretically be USD positive by encouraging more exports and less imports, but this is complicated by the US dollar's reserve currency status and associated other functions (i.e funding, transactional etc) it provides for global commerce," ANZ says. Also, it depends on other policies that will be implemented alongside it. While it may well make exporting more attractive, market access could be reduced when renegotiating trade agreements, ANZ says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
13:13 ET - Now's a good time to prepare bond portfolios for global reflation, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist Richard Turnill says. US wage growth suggests the reflationary phase of this economic cycle has arrived, but how and when Trump's tax and regulatory policy changes are implemented are key to the market's outlook, Turnill says. BlackRock's base case is that moderately improving US and global growth accompanied by tame inflation will lead to gradually rising long-term bond yields. The asset manager advocates holding TIPS over nominal bonds, shortening interest-rate exposure and owning more corporate credit. It prefers higher-quality investment-grade issues as well as financial paper. There's a potential for higher yields in the eurozone, particularly in peripheral countries. Global reflation should be positive for emerging-market economies, though the potential fallout from a stronger US dollar is keeping BlackRock "cautiously selective," he says. ([email protected]; @DaisyMaxey)
1802 GMT - The credit rating for British aircraft engine maker Rolls-Royce (RR.LN) has been downgraded to BBB+ at Standard & Poor's following the company's admission it facilitated corruption in several countries. The admission came with a more than $800M fine which, S&P says, is leading to Rolls losing its "A-" rating on long-term credit. Rolls closed 0.4% higher in London at GBP6.92. ([email protected])
12:59 ET - The Federal Reserve's "total loss-absorbing capacity" rule designed to prevent bailouts of big banks is set to be published in the Federal Register Tuesday, according to the register's website. President Donald Trump's chief of staff had issued a moratorium on new regulations Friday, asking executive agencies to withdraw any rules that had been submitted for official publication. The Fed board had voted to adopt the so-called TLAC rule on December 15. It is not clear whether the Fed and other regulators will be following the White House regulatory freeze going forward. Financial regulators are generally considered independent of the White House, although they may choose to follow the order so as to comply with its spirit.([email protected]; @ryanjtracy)
1710 GMT - Deltec CIO Atul Lele cites two correlations he says show industrial metals are riding for a fall. First: a disconnect between metals prices and industrial production growth. The second is between prices and dollar liquidity. "Commodity prices are pricing-in a huge injection of dollar liquidity," but with the US Federal Reserve on a tightening path, liquidity growth is set to slow, Lele says. To bet against commodities prices, Deltec, which manages or advises funds worth $5B, is short Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), BHP Billiton (BLT.AU) and Vale (VALE5.BR) and is "looking for opportunities" to short the Australian dollar, he says. ([email protected])
12:02 ET - Bond yields hit fresh session lows as investors fret about Trump's mixed policy platform, especially his protectionist approach on foreign trade. The move comes as Trump signs an executive order removing US from 12-nation TPP Trade Pact. John Canavan, market analyst at Stone and McCarthy Research Associates, says the reflation trade since the US election is overdone. There are "a lot of questions on the table about the new administration," he says. "How quickly can the administration get things done?" He said the 10-year yield is likely to trade between 2.3%-2.5% before next week's FOMC rate statement. The Fed is likely to wait until June to raise rates as it takes time for policies to get approved by Congress and trickle down to the real economy, he says. The US 10-year yield is 2.397% vs 2.466% Friday. ([email protected])
1631 GMT ETF Securities says its exchange-traded funds that invest in gold attracted inflows of $65.4 million last week, the most money in 16 weeks. The company attributes the increased demand to a weaker U.S. dollar and investor appetite for assets that offer a hedge against inflation. U.S. inflation last week breached 2% for the first since 2014. At the same time, ETF reported record inflows of money into products betting against the currencies of commodity-based economies, such as Australia and Norway, citing concern about the potential for an economic slowdown in China and a reversal in oil prices. ([email protected])
1627 GMT Predicting France's leftist primary may prove perilous. A survey by Harris Interactive shows a large share of voters in the first round Sunday were undecided until the last moment. The survey of 934 people who voted in the first round shows 12% decided who to vote for on the day and another 34% only in recent days. Leftist candidate Benoit Hamon came out on top in the first round, less than six percentage points ahead of second-placed pro-business reformer Manuel Valls. The two candidates from opposing wings of the Socialist Party will face each other in a runoff vote Sunday. The outcome is crucial to the dynamics of the two-round presidential election in May, even if neither Mr. Hamon nor Mr. Valls are contendors according to polls. If Mr. Hamon wins, it will open up more space for centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is currently polling in third position for the general election. If Mr. Valls is the Socialist candidate, the centrist vote is more likely to be split between him and Mr. Macron, making the presidential election a duel between conservative Francois Fillon and National Front leader Marine Le Pen. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 23, 2017 16:03 ET (21:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
The Dollar Index Is At A Crucial Level
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 23, 2017 8:41 AM


The U.S. Dollar is testing the breakout point of its 20-month trading range.
On an Inauguration Day in which the overriding theme of the incoming Presidents speech was one of protectionism, it was fitting that the Chart Of The Day dealt with the U.S. Dollar protecting its own chart turf. Following the Dollars explosive rally from 2014 to 2015, it settled into a 20-month consolidation. In the case of the Dollar Index (DXY), this relatively tight range stretched from roughly 92.5 to 100.5. In the frenzied post-election action in the financial markets, the DXY was finally able to break out above the top of its range. And after a brief test of the 100.5 breakout area in early December, the DXY traded as high as 103.82.


In recent weeks, however, we have seen it pull back to where it is once again presently testing the 100.5 breakout level.
http://68.media.tumblr.com/6857a93e3...sq14jh_500.jpg

Many folks, including ourselves, have surmised that the 20-month trading range was likely just a digestion of the 2014-2015 rally and would put the Dollar into position to launch its next leg higher. For that theory to be correct, holding this breakout area may be crucial. Should the DXY indeed be successful at holding this level, a longer-term, more significant up-leg is certainly in play.

Of course, if the DXY fails to hold its breakout level, then a false breakout is the focus. And the downside potential following a false breakout could be considerable. Either way, a lot could be riding on this test right here in the Dollar.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...UMPWEEK1_0.jpg
Additionally, over the years, we have learned to judge each security and asset on its own merits. That is, the practice of inter-market, derivative analysis, or directing ones investment in an asset based on the movement of another is vastly overrated. That said, if there is one asset that wields more influence over the behavior of others, it is likely the Dollar. Therefore, if one can correctly analyze the path of the Dollar, they have a decent shot at getting other assets right.

And that reality makes this current test that much more consequential.

Comments from Benjaminis:

5 Minute Chart on US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-the-verdict


Brexit Bulletin: The Verdict
Voters and investors await the Supreme Court’s ruling on Brexit.

All eyes will be on the U.K.’s Supreme Court at 09:30 a.m. London time to discover whether the Prime Minister or Parliament has the power to trigger Brexit.
The odds favour a defeat for Theresa May’s government, forcing it to seek the backing of lawmakers via a motion or a bill.
While it is unlikely politicians will try to block Brexit given that a majority of voters want it, they could still complicate the process by adding amendments aimed at softening May’s plan.
The opposition Labour Party will push for a “meaningful” vote on May’s negotiations and seek to ensure Parliament is able to block a deal if it is not in the interests of the country, according to a person familiar with the strategy.
The prime minister maintains she can still meet her March 31 deadline for opening negotiations even if the houses of Commons or Lords prove troublesome. Yet the Guardian reports government lawyers have warned May that very short legislation could leave her vulnerable to more legal appeals later.
Exactly how the process will work is explained in great detail here by Bloomberg’s Westminster reporter Rob Hutton.

What Else Could Happen?
Other than the main decision, there are other ways the court can make things difficult for May.
Firstly, the High Court didn’t specify what form Parliament’s approval should take -- a motion or a bill, which would have to go through at least five stages in both the House of Commons and House of Lords. The Supreme Court may clarify matters.
Secondly, the court may rule that semi-autonomous legislatures in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland must also have a say, increasing the likelihood of Brexit being derailed. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told Monday’s Daily Record she’ll seek a vote north of the border “no matter what the court decides.”
Thirdly, the judges could decide that May’s plan to add all EU laws to the U.K. statute book, allowing some to be repealed later, must come first. This could take several months.
Deutsche Bank strategist Oliver Harvey sees a 50 percent chance the government loses the appeal, but wins the parliamentary vote. He estimates there is a 30 percent chance the court says the devolved authorities or the European Court of Justice must be consulted and a 20 percent chance the government loses the parliamentary vote, which would risk a General Election.

Defiance on Trade
The U.K. is preparing to fire the starting gun on trade negotiations with countries outside the EU within months, in open defiance of warnings from Brussels that such action would be illegal.
May’s triggering of Article 50 will prompt her team to begin trade talks around the world, Tim Ross reported overnight, citing a senior official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are confidential.
The move would directly contradict the European Commission, whose spokesman said on Monday that Britain would not be allowed to begin negotiations on any new trade deals with other countries outside of Europe until it has left the bloc.
Members of May’s team believe the EU will have no legal authority to stop the U.K. once the Brexit process has started and little political appetite for a fight on this issue. The risk for May is the EU may seek retribution for the defiance in the Brexit talks.

Brexit Bullets

1. German and French efforts to lure U.K.-based banks unsettled by Brexit may stumble over their planned tax on financial transactions, Bloomberg’s Alexander Weber writes.
2. Poland is seeking to attract as many as 30,000 British jobs to its business-service sector this year, government says
3. May to visit U.S. Republican Party lawmakers in Philadelphia on Thursday. She plans to travel to China again “relatively soon” to bolster trade ties, FT reports
4. U.K. seeks “smooth transition” inside World Trade Organization, diplomat Julian Braithwaite says
5. Trade Minister Greg Hands tells Swedish business paper DI that Britain must get better at exporting
6. Irish central bank says most inquiries about relocating are preliminary so far
7. May seeks clean energy to buoy vision of global Britain
8. 26 percent of voters want a second referendum on ultimate Brexit deal, says Guardian
9. Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat says corporate taxes “up to the U.K. to decide” and he doesn’t favor EU harmonization

On the Markets
ING Groep is telling clients that a Supreme Court defeat of the government is already priced into the pound, meaning there is a smaller potential for a rally on Tuesday in such an event.
The fate of the U.K. currency will therefore lie in how much scrutiny lawmakers exercise over May’s plans, said London-based strategist Viraj Patel. That opens up a range of outcomes for the pound from a rally to $1.2650 to an almost 4 percent decline to $1.21, Patel wrote.
UBS Wealth Management may consider buying pounds if inflation accelerates and bets on monetary tightening increase, according to Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer.

And Finally?
Monday marked four years since then-Prime Minister David Cameron visited Bloomberg’s London headquarters to announce plans for a referendum on EU membership.
The rest is history but Rupert Harrison, then a government adviser and now a strategist at BlackRock, recently drew lessons for May from Cameron’s efforts to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Brussels.
May should perhaps rely less on Germany for support than Cameron did and try to build a coalition with other European countries, he said. She might also want to being willing to walk from the talks if she’s not getting her way.
Harrison also advised the premier that Europe is serious when it says it has “red lines.”
“That’s not a negotiating position; that’s the truth and the U.K. needs to understand that,” Harrison said.