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Bagovino Method

  • #361
  • Sep 4, 2006 3:48pm Sep 4, 2006 3:48pm
I've just done some more sums, and had a rethink. GBP/JPY stops- 50-60 pips. Certainly no less than 50.
  • #362
  • Sep 4, 2006 6:06pm Sep 4, 2006 6:06pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
I've just done some more sums, and had a rethink. GBP/JPY stops- 50-60 pips. Certainly no less than 50.

yes i think so too, i learned my lesson on this one. the funny thing is, as soon as it hit my stop loss at 25 pips, it started coming down within 5 minutes it came to my original place. I just cant believe i left that much money on the table. but this is a learning experience i knew it was going to come down, i trusted the model and all the indicators was showing the trade in my favor but anyways... i am gonna keep on trading and learning.

i havent tried this method on usd/jpy, has anyone tried and had success with it? thanks
  • #363
  • Sep 4, 2006 6:23pm Sep 4, 2006 6:23pm
Quoting keremo
yes i think so too, i learned my lesson on this one. the funny thing is, as soon as it hit my stop loss at 25 pips, it started coming down within 5 minutes it came to my original place. I just cant believe i left that much money on the table. but this is a learning experience i knew it was going to come down, i trusted the model and all the indicators was showing the trade in my favor but anyways... i am gonna keep on trading and learning.

i havent tried this method on usd/jpy, has anyone tried and had success with it? thanks
Have a look at post 355 keremo.
  • #364
  • Sep 4, 2006 6:34pm Sep 4, 2006 6:34pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
Have a look at post 355 keremo.
great thanks.. that chart is hotter than Paris Hilton in that Carl's Junior ad.

hey do you guys know where i can download the meta4? i used to have it but i changed laptops and i now cant seem to find it. thanks
  • #365
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:01pm Sep 4, 2006 8:01pm
Here is a setup that meets all the rules that has been stated by different people. See what you think. It is the USD/CHF, we had the 5/12, RSI cross. Price closed thorugh the Vegas tunnel and the 18/28 EMA crossed as well.

[img]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Ambert/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/img][img]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Ambert/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/img]
Attached Image
  • #366
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:05pm Sep 4, 2006 8:05pm
Quoting bagovino
Shaimus,

By the way.... It doesn't get anymore beautiful than this! Check out the JPY move. Clear across the chart. MAJOR PIPS!

Now we are looking for signs of a quick long after the consolidation period... Maybe during the upcoming London session.


B.
Hi Bagovino,
For the short USDJPY trigger (1SEP06, 15:00GMT), would/did you enter on the close of the 1h @117.20 or given that it was in an uptrend and was close to the north side of the tunnel would/did you wait for a break of the South side of the tunnel (approx 116.90)?
How are others considering these aspects?
  • #367
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:40pm Sep 4, 2006 8:40pm
Hi Guys,

iam a newbie to forex but have so much enhanced my knowledge thru this excellent forum. my congradulations to all who take the time to share their knowledge & experiences here.
ok to my query - living on the otherside of the world doesnt always allow me to situp & watch the usa/london trade sessions . so when i come in to look at charts 1st thing in the am i have missed the 5/12ema/ris50/VT crossovers which have been well in play. is it wise to enter after the play even though all the indicators are still on the positive or negative side ??

Happy trading.
  • #368
  • Sep 5, 2006 12:22am Sep 5, 2006 12:22am
a nice short on the EURO at 02:00. Too bad for us Europeans as most of us would have been asleep.

Many thanks to all people contrubuting to this (Sidus, Bago, Tick, Renasdad etc)
  • #369
  • Sep 5, 2006 1:45am Sep 5, 2006 1:45am
Johoma,


If you look at my post on the JPY entry there is a picture there... You can see the exact point of entry.


B.
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #370
  • Sep 5, 2006 2:29am Sep 5, 2006 2:29am
Whoever it was called a nice short on GBP.... I was in it as well! I hope you didnt exit when it turned against us for a bit. Look at the payoff... 45+ pips!!!

Nice job!

Bago
Attached Image
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #371
  • Sep 5, 2006 4:42am Sep 5, 2006 4:42am
Forexbunny, this is another question I have. Some of us that have a day job and are off in meetings much of the day come back to the screen and see that a signal ocurred over the last hours or so and you could have been in the middle of a good trade.
How do you determine if it's too late to enter the trade and get a piece of the action? What do you look at to know?

Wayne


Quoting forexbunny
Hi Guys,

iam a newbie to forex but have so much enhanced my knowledge thru this excellent forum. my congradulations to all who take the time to share their knowledge & experiences here.
ok to my query - living on the otherside of the world doesnt always allow me to situp & watch the usa/london trade sessions . so when i come in to look at charts 1st thing in the am i have missed the 5/12ema/ris50/VT crossovers which have been well in play. is it wise to enter after the play even though all the indicators are still on the positive or negative side ??

Happy trading.
  • #372
  • Sep 5, 2006 5:29am Sep 5, 2006 5:29am
Cable had been caught in a range of 1.9088-1.9030.
That range broke down. While in the range it gave two bag signals, the first one bad/fake as posted, the second one better/worked out. I don't believe the second one was called.
It was at 2 am my time, I for one was sleeping.
I've attached an image showing where and why and how you could have entered even without a bag signal just purely on a breakout move.

1.8970 would have been a good spot to close or TP (and move stop to breakeven) as 1.8960 has been former support and 1.8970 is roughly 89 pips from the high of the candle where the signal occured.


To forexbunny and others: DO NOT EVER EVER EVER ENTER A TRADE LATE!
If you missed the signal, wait for a new one!
Late entries=larger stops=totally messed up risk/reward scenario.
One of the golden rules is "Don't enter in the middle". Ever!
It's just not worth it, in the long run it just has a real bad r/r outlook.
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #373
  • Sep 5, 2006 5:58am Sep 5, 2006 5:58am
Hi, why do you think failure first signal?
Thx bj
BJ
  • #374
  • Sep 5, 2006 6:01am Sep 5, 2006 6:01am
Quoting brainjt
Hi, why do you think failure first signal?
Thx bj
I think it is because you would have most likely been stopped out on that signal if you didin't take the minor pips on the move before it rebounded I saw that one but stayed away from it considering the time that it happend..

The second one I would have jumped on had
I been at the computer..

Shaimus
  • #375
  • Sep 5, 2006 7:54am Sep 5, 2006 7:54am
Quoting shaimus
I think it is because you would have most likely been stopped out on that signal if you didin't take the minor pips on the move before it rebounded I saw that one but stayed away from it considering the time that it happend..

The second one I would have jumped on had
I been at the computer..

Shaimus
If you'd used a 40 pip stop say, which is reasonable on a pair as volatile as GBP/USD, you probably wouldn't have been stopped out, depending on where you got in obviously.
  • #376
  • Sep 5, 2006 8:42am Sep 5, 2006 8:42am
Agreed TheGreatMilenko.. But I have to keep in my mind that where you set your stops is one of the discrecianary fators of any method.. Personally if I'm a t the computer and can keep an eye on the market I don't put stops in but if I can't watch it I'm pretty conservative on my stops.. ussually between 20 and 40 points .. depending on the currency and my feelings as to what the market is doing..

Right now I am watching the USD/JPY as it has reached the lower Fib and started its turn to retrace.. Looking to pick up 45+ points on that one today..

Happy Trading everyone..

Shaimus
  • #377
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:06am Sep 5, 2006 9:06am
I believe proper setups and good trades don't need stops over 20 pips. I've seen most good trades go less than 8-16 pips against you. Those that supposedly need more breathing room probably cross back and then make a proper signal after that or signal during ranging periods and the "breathing" is just trying to hold in the range. At least that's how it looks to me.

Because if it were to go the other way, it would for more than 20 and no stop would keep it in and if it were to go the right way, it wouldn't first reverse for over 20. Unless you missed that gigantic fib or s/r right in front of you, in which case it wasn't not having a big enough stop that was the trouble, it was you missing the surrounding conditions.

Stops over 30 pips don't feel to me like they're likely to make you more profitable.....like I said, most trades that go won't need that large stops...

"If it comes back past you, then you're in at the wrong place"


I don't see a good reason or setup for a nippy long at the moment.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #378
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:17am Sep 5, 2006 9:17am
Quoting SeekingLight
I believe proper setups and good trades don't need stops over 20 pips. I've seen most good trades go less than 8-16 pips against you. Those that supposedly need more breathing room probably cross back and then make a proper signal after that or signal during ranging periods and the "breathing" is just trying to hold in the range. At least that's how it looks to me.

Because if it were to go the other way, it would for more than 20 and no stop would keep it in and if it were to go the right way, it wouldn't first reverse for over 20. Unless you missed that gigantic fib or s/r right in front of you, in which case it wasn't not having a big enough stop that was the trouble, it was you missing the surrounding conditions.

Stops over 30 pips don't feel to me like they're likely to make you more profitable.....like I said, most trades that go won't need that large stops...

"If it comes back past you, then you're in at the wrong place"


I don't see a good reason or setup for a nippy long at the moment.
You can be just as profitable , for example, with a 40 pip stop onGBP/USD, as you can with a 30 pip stop on EUR/USD. Although 40 pips is a bigger risk, any gains will also be bigger, because of the volatility of the pair, thus keeping your RR, ratio the same, roughly.
  • #379
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:42am Sep 5, 2006 9:42am
Tight stops are NOT the way to go. A trade needs to breathe. Any pro trader will tell you that! A 35/40 pip stop is the minimum you'd want. The only time you'd want to use less is if you got it around a very strong point of support/resistance. Institutions are famous for stop hunting. So they will take you out real quick if they want and then the trade will resume in the direction you wanted it to go. I personally dont put stops in unless I'm going to be away .

Notice this... When price hits a level such as 1.2900 watch price range from 1.2885 to 1.2915 and then the trade resume it's expected direction. That is the large financial institutions clearing out the stops because they know traders tend to place stops in that area. 1.9000, 1.1100 depending on the currency you trade it happens around the "00" area. There is actually a system that just trades based on that info.... I'll post a link to support this theory later when I'm on my other computer. I dont have the link here.

So a tight 20 pip stop will kill you!!!!

Also, there is nothing wrong with getting in a bit late... I dont see anything wrong with taking 40 pips out of a 90 pip move do you???
Just use good analysis and make sure your not getting in at the end of the move and it reverses on you!!

Opinions, opinions... You know what they say about them!!!

Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #380
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:44am Sep 5, 2006 9:44am
Someone said they'd post a good volume indicator here... I'd like to incorporate it into the system and only take trades/signals when the volume is high.

Does anyone have such an indicator???

Thanks,

B.
"Skills pay the bill's!"
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