Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

The following article in light of where we are today in our complex and confused Global World and economy is more than just informative. It essentially shows us the future and confirms it with history.

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-inve...s-but-started/

Snippet One:
The Investment Secret Of The 2000s And It Has But Started
Posted on January 21, 2017 January 21, 2017

The Investment Secret Of The 2000s And It Has But Started
By Egon von Greyerz

For most investors, there is only one asset class on the horizon. Whether it is the professional or private investor, when they consider investing, stocks will always be first on their list. And if we exclude all debt instruments, the stock market is by far the biggest market in the world. Global stock markets are capitalised at around $80 trillion currently.

Stocks – A Stairway to Heaven?
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, investing has been “a stairway to heaven” (Led Zeppelin). But there have been quite a few stumbling blocks on the way. In 1929 the Dow peaked at almost 400 before the crash. The low of the Dow was in July 1932 at 40 – a 90% fall. It then took 25 years until 1954 for the Dow to get back to 400. This gives an average return of 5% over a 103-year period excluding dividends. This is an excellent return and including dividends the total return approaches 10% annually.

As I have shown in previous articles, the rise of the stock market is very much linked to the increase in debt. Since Reagan came to power in 1981 for example, US debt is up 22X and the Dow up 20X.
https://i2.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...70%2C391&ssl=1
We are now getting to the point when increasing amounts of debt and money printing is required to fuel the stock market. With the Shiller p/e currently at 28.5, the stock market is in bubble territory and approaching the 1929 overvaluation level. But we are not yet in the super-bubble area of 2000. So in theory there is room for this bubble to grow yet bigger.

Caveat Emptor

But even if stock markets can become even more overvalued than currently, they are now at levels which represent unacceptable risk especially when we look at a mean of 16.7of the Schiller inde. This makes the overvaluation 70%. This necessitates a very stern “Caveat Emptor” (buyer beware) to any stock market investor.
https://i2.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...33%2C338&ssl=1
The investment secret of the century

Although stocks, bonds and property all represent very high risk, few investors look for opportunities outside these markets. And it is for this reason that most investors have totally missed the best performing asset class in this century which is of course precious metals. Most investors don’t look at gold as an investment. Gold is regarded as a volatile commodity and does not appear in the average investment portfolio. Less than 0.5% of world financial assets are invested in gold today. This extremely low level of gold investment shows that very few people understand gold and even fewer look at the performance of gold. Most investors don’t have a clue how gold has performed in the 2000s. If they did know, they would realise that they have missed the best investment in the last 16 years by a very big margin.

The table below shows how gold has done in dollars and pounds compared to the S&P and the FTSE-100.
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...71%2C195&ssl=1
This little blue and white table above is the secret of this century. Investors in the US would have made $262,000 more by investing in gold than in the S&P. In the UK, an investor would have made £448,000 more by investing in gold instead of the stock market. Very few Brits realise that by buying gold in 2,000 and never trading it they would have made 5.5X their money. The sad thing is that neither the Brits nor the Americans realise that they would make even more money in the next five years by holding gold and silver.

But the average person sadly never buys an unloved and undervalued investment. He waits until the price has gone up substantially and it becomes headline news.

I have shown above what has happened to two major stock markets in relation to gold in this century. But that is just an example. The pattern and gold’s outperformance is consistent in virtually all stock markets in the world.

Snippet Two:
Stocks to lose 95% against gold
These incremental returns by investing in gold are the secrets of this century. Only a very infinitesimal percentage of investors are aware of this. But even fewer investors are aware of what will happen in the next few years. Gold will continue to outperform stock markets worldwide by an even bigger percentage. As the chart below shows, the Dow has lost hugely against gold in this century. But that is just the beginning. The current correction up of the Gold/Dow Jones ratio has probably finished. This correction is very similar to the one in the mid-1970s. Next target should be sub 1 where it was in 1980. A 1 for 1 Dow vs Gold could be at 10,000 Dow and $10,000 gold or with hyperinflation they could both be at 100,000. At whatever level they meet, it means that the Dow will have fallen by at least 95% against gold. Very few people can envisage such a fall today but it would not be the first time in history.

https://i1.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...39%2C407&ssl=1
Insatiable Silk Road demand for gold
As stock markets fall and gold rises, the increased demand for physical gold cannot be satisfied at current prices. Currently the silk road countries of China, India, Russia and Turkey absorb virtually all annual gold mine production. The chart below shows the insatiable demand for gold in these countries. Since 1995 they have bought a total of 31,000 tons.

Gold demand in China, Russia, Turkey and India

https://i2.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...90%2C375&ssl=1
The acceleration in the Silk Road gold demand started in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis. Since that time, these four countries have bought a total of 21,000 tons. That equals an average of 2,600 tons annually which is slightly less than annual global mine production. Some estimates consider the Chinese demand to be grossly understated in these figures. The demand from the Silk Road countries is likely to continue to be very strong in spite of current political problems in India.

As the gold price starts to rise, demand in the West will increase substantially. The dilemma is that this increased demand will take place during a period of falling goldmine production. Currently 3,000 tons are produced annually but this is expected to fall to 2,000 tons by 2025.
Institutional demand for gold to treble

Official inflation figures have for an extended period been between 0% and 2% in most countries. Real inflation is of course considerably higher and even more so if asset inflation is included. But in spite of major increases in credit and money printing, inflation has been low due to low velocity of money. In 2017, we are likely to see an increase in the velocity of money leading to higher inflation and eventually hyperinflation in many countries. As inflation rises, institutional demand for gold will increase for inflation hedging purposes. Currently gold available for investment is around 0.4% of world financial assets. An increase to say 1.4% of global financial assets would involve gold purchases of $5 trillion. With annual gold production including scrap averaging around 3,500 tons in the next 8 years, the total gold production during this 8 year period would be $1 trillion at current prices. Thus there would be a total deficit of $4 trillion (at current prices) between demand and supply.

The only way that the increased investment demand can be satisfied is with higher prices since production cannot be increased. An institution who wants so spend $1 billion on gold would get 25 tons at current prices. But since there will not be enough gold available at the current price of $1,200, prices will need to increase at least fivefold to $6,000 within the next 8 years in order to satisfy the increase in demand. So for the $ 1 billion investment, the institution would get 5 tons of gold rather than 25 tons.

In addition to increased investment demand, there will be an even greater demand from the holders of paper gold. As the gold price rises, there will be a panic in the paper gold market as the paper holders of gold demand delivery. This is likely to push the gold price well above $10,000 in today’s money.


Fundamental and technical factors point to higher gold in 2017
There are many fundamental and technical factors that point to an increase in the gold price in 2017. One of these is my good friend Ray Merriman, the foremost financial forecaster using cycles and astrology, who sees the gold price rising strongly staring in 2017 and continuing to at least 2020.
So for investors who hold physical gold and silver, 2017 should be a very interesting year. And for the ones who don’t $1,200 gold and $17 is an absolute bargain compared to what we will see in the next few years. But the most important reason for holding physical gold and silver is not the potential capital appreciation but as a hedge against a bankrupt financial system. Gold and silver is the best insurance anyone can buy as long as it is held outside the banking system.


Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management AG
matterhorn.gold
goldswitzerland.com

Thank You KeepCalmfx for your last post. Did you get my PM that I sent to you today ?

On another note I have been discussing with Bones on the USD/JPY thread what we do to get our edge especially as it relates to the direction of USD/JPY.

I just read his excellent reply and since the only way that I know to bring it over here to our thread is by copying it which I did just now and pasting it which I do now. Bones has produced some fascinating charts that I share here,

 

1. Post 63,686
2. Jan 22, 12:18pm (18 min ago) | Edited Jan 22, 12:35pm

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar54570_47.gif Bones
2. Joined Nov 2007 | Status: THINK BIG | 14,028 Posts | Invisible

heres the thing these 2 charts have made the same move ,only one had to go further
give you an idea what next $ im posting a $ index spread even against the majors ,the $ is at major res
Trump has made an unusual announcement that he thinks its too high
also hes yet to put meat on the bones of the policies that drove the move in the first place


Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Nice charts !!! On Topic of the direction of USD/JPY whether back towards to 1.20 or return to 105 is anyone here aware of the Correlation between Dow 30 and USD/JPY ? In case not , I will post two daily charts here on a daily timeline for USD/JPY and Dow 30. Then you decide for yourself. DJIA from Finviz - Daily Chart. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=YM USD/JPY from Finviz - Daily Chart http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=USDJPY Benjaminis
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485105350 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485105415 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485105428 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485106535
Bones O Meter developer

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Great Charts Bones , Congratulations.

I post his interesting last chart again on the Dow 30 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1485106773

I can see from the Chart that once it passes 18,000 on the Dow it is WATCH OUT BELOW !!!

Hi Benjamin, thank you, I did receive your post will reply.

thanks Ben ,
with those charts maybe wait and see
best case for dow bearish is it fails a break up prior to end of month ,something through that number holding things up
but something ready to rock in the same vein
hopefully its on theme for the thread which I have to try to understand
a lot of what your saying ive heard but dont really understand

HEADS UP - VERY INFORMATIVE AND REVEALING ARTICLE WITH MY COMMENTARY AT END OF SECTIONS OF THE ARTICLE - Next Major Date of the FED is February 1, 2017.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 22, 2017 12:43 PM

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via CaseyResearch.com,
The establishment is setting up Donald Trump.
The mainstream media hates him. Hollywood hates him. The Intellectual Yet Idiot academia class hates him.

The CIA hates him. So does the rest of the Deep State, or the permanently entrenched national security bureaucracy.

They did everything possible to stop Trump from taking office. None of it worked. They fired all of their bullets, but he still wouldnt go down.
Of course, the Deep State could still try to assassinate Trump. Its obvious the possibility has crossed his mind. Hes taken the unusual step of supplementing his Secret Service protection with loyal private security.

The Deep States next move is to pin the coming stock market collapse on Trump. When people think Greater Depression, theyll think Donald Trump.

The economy has been on life support since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed has pumped it up with unprecedented amounts of stimulus. This has created enormous distortions and misallocations of capital that need to be flushed.

Think of the trillions of dollars in money printing programseuphemistically called quantitative easing (QE) 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, with zero and even negative interest rates in many countries, rates are the lowest theyve been in 5,000 years of recorded human history.

This is not hyperbole. Were really in uncharted territory. (Interest rates were never lower than 6% in ancient Greece, and ranged from 4% to over 12% in ancient Rome.)

The too-big-to-fail banks are even bigger than they were in 2008. They have more derivatives, and theyre much more dangerous.

If the Deep State wants to trigger a stock market collapse on par with 1929, it just has to pull the plug on the extraordinary life support measures its used since the last crisis.

Its already baked in the cake. Its just a matter of when they decide to trigger the controlled demolition.

Donald Trump is the perfect fall guy. And there are signs the Deep State is already starting to get its revenge.
The most important variable to watch is the Federal Reservethe quintessential establishment institution.
https://d24g2nq85gnwal.cloudfront.ne...-ratehikes.jpg
Source: Ben Garrison
Even though most politicians, economists, and pundits in the mainstream media wont admit it, central banks exist to help governments finance themselves, at the expense of the average man. Its the hidden, but real, reason they exist.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: The next FED rate decision is on February 1, 2017 and while I doubt that they will raise interest rates then it will be most important what they say. Have NO DOUBT , President Donald John Trump now has the POWER with the help of course of the Senate and the House of Representatives to pass laws to "AUDIT THE FED"


The Fed accommodated Obama effectively financing his regimes deficits by creating new currency units. I doubt they will do Trump the same favor. And Trump will likely run up enormous deficits. Dont forget about the $1 trillion in stimulus spending he has planned.

If the Fed doesnt gobble up the debt used to finance Trumps spending, it will only work to push up interest rates.


Interest Rates
Manipulating interest rates to near 5,000-year lows is a crucial part of the life support system. Now the Fed is set to pull the plug and leave Trump holding the bag.

In December 2015 the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, from 0% to a mere 0.25%.

The Fed kept rates there until last month, when it raised them to 0.50%. It also announced it would accelerate rate hikes throughout 2017three in total.

Theres a good chance the Fed will announce these rate hikes during the eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings it has scheduled in 2017. I think some of these rate hikes will be much bigger than the 0.25% most expect. They could pull a series of 0.50% rate hikes or go even bigger.
Anything greater than the normal 0.25% tempo would shock the marketand seem designed to hurt Trump.


COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We will finally see if President Trump is real or had a hidden agenda. The powerful wealthy men around him KNOW THE SYSTEM as well as anyone and they know if they are with the President what needs to be done. The House of Cards is going down regardless what the President does however who better to arrange a Proposal In Bankruptcy then President Donald John Trump ?


The establishment will get its revenge on Trump. The Federal Reserve is its weapon of choice.

Trump seems aware of the situation. He recently said, Theyre keeping the rates down so that everything else doesnt go down.
Hes also said that We have a very false economy and the stock market is a big, fat, ugly bubble.


During the campaign, Trump called Fed Chair Janet Yellen highly political. He said the Fed should raise interest rates but wont because of political reasons. (Raising rates before the election would have hurt Hillary Clinton.)


The Media
The mainstream media is another variable to watch.
Paul Krugman, a New York Times economistor, more accurately, witch doctor economisthas come out against Trumps $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus.

Its bizarre because Krugman, a die-hard Keynesian, had previously never seen a stimulus program he didnt like. Once, he even advocated faking a space alien invasion to stimulate the economy. It shows that Krugman is not only a fool, but a hypocrite.


This is a clue.
I bet the rest of the mainstream financial mediaCNBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, etc.will morph from bullish cheerleaders into pessimistic doom-and-gloomers after Trump takes office.


Dont expect them to find any green shoots after the market tanks on Trumps watch.
All this is why what happens after Trumps inauguration could change everything in sudden, unexpected ways.

The Challenging Week Ahead
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-izSWH2IRF...hought%2B2.jpg
The developments over the last few days, including the strident tones of the inauguration speech, the dispute of the number that attended the inauguration, and the nearly incoherent speech to the CIA may be a small hint to investors of the unpredictable nature of the new US President. The unorthodox style and rhetoric should not distract from the necessary focus on policy. Ultimately, public policies and private sector behavior, not speeches or wishes, drive interest rates, equities, and currencies. Investors will have to get accustomed to the new Administration's way of conducting itself and communicating.

With broad strokes, and recognizing some contradictory impulses, at this juncture we suggest four main elements of Trump's economic policy.

The first is re-writing trade deals. This is a central plank. It is one of the key elements of Trump's foreign policy and job creation plans. The potential of TPP being re-purposed as a bilateral free-trade agreement between the US and Japan remains possible but unlikely.

The priority appears to be to re-negotiate NAFTA. Few people are opposed to reviewing old agreements. No doubt it can be updated; it is 23 years old. Intellectual property rights have evolved, the Internet not only exists but is an important distribution channel for goods, services, and information, there are new tax and accounting rules, and the like. While modernizing old agreement is one thing, changing the essential thrust (reduced barriers to trade, in the North American continent) is quite a different thing. It is not clear to many whether Trump's rhetoric is part of the "Art of the Deal," or whether it is a principled position.

Like his predecessors, Trump also talks about enforcing existing agreements. Sometimes there have been trade disputes among NAFTA countries. That is an important thing that is often overlooked about trade agreements. They provide a conflict resolution mechanism; invaluable for resolving and containing disputes. It is like a penalty in a football game or a foul in basketball. The violation of the rules is incorporated into the rules themselves.

Remember too, the desire to negotiate NAFTA (by Bush-the-elder, and approved under Clinton) was partly a reflection of the significance of north-south trade. In effect, the agreement codified and furthered trends already in place, as well as a means to address infractions. The agreement followed trade just as much as more trade followed the agreement.

Second, the White House says it wants the US to create 2.5 mln new jobs over the next decade. Over the last five years, the US created an average of 197k net new jobs a month. The five-year monthly average has rarely been over a 200k. Although during the campaign there was talk of achieving 5%-6% growth, the White House now says 4%, while Mnuchin said 3%-4% in his confirmation hearings.

The US economy grew 3.5% in Q3, and the first estimate of Q4 will be reported on January 27. The NY Fed's GDP tracker sees growth at 2.4% quarterly annualized rate (2.7% for Q1 17). The median in the Bloomberg poll is 2.2%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is 2.8% for Q4.

Third, tax code reform appears high on the priority list. The new Administration wants to cut corporate taxes, simplify the code and reduce income taxes. Although there was some talk of reducing the tax rate on all income brackets, Mnuchin seemed to rule out tax cuts for wealthy households.

Trump seems to have rejected the border adjustment tax that the Congressional Republicans advocated, but taxing imports (tariff) continues to be touted. Trump promises deregulation and new regulation have been frozen. The Obama Administration also froze new regulation at the very start.

The fourth plank is the $1 trillion infrastructure initiative. It is important for jobs and growth, though apparently not cited on the new White House website. President Trump did include it is his inauguration speech.

It is not clear the priority that will be given to filling the two empty seats on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. It is possible that one of the current Governors step down, we expected Yellen (and Fischer) to complete their current terms. Several regional Fed Presidents have already begun to discuss reducing the size of the balance sheet, which seemed to have been an issue for some economic advisers.

Another important non-economic event that investors will be monitoring is the UK Supreme Court ruling on whether Parliament approval is necessary to trigger Article 50. After Prime Minister May's speech last week, the decision may have lost some of its ability to roil the markets. May reassured that Parliament would vote on the final agreement.

Although many in Parliament seem to has some misgivings about the clean break strategy, which had been thought of as a hard Brexit scenario, there is little doubt a majority will vote to trigger Article 50. The failure to do so would likely spark a political crisis. Northern Ireland will go to the polls on March 2. An anti-Brexit parliament could still frustrate May's timetable, and Scotland independence efforts may be fanned by the UK government's position. It is also not immediately clear the implications of the change in leadership of the European Parliament, which will also vote on the final Brexit deal.

The UK also reports the first estimate of Q4 GDP. UK growth has been remarkably stable. Quarterly growth has averaged 0.6% over the last four and 12 quarters. Quarterly growth has averaged 0.5% over the past five years. Economists expect the UK economy grew 0.5%-0.6% in Q4 16.

The US interest rate premium over the UK has narrowed, and this appears to be helping sterling find traction after the brief push below $1.20 at the start of last week. The premium offered by the US on two-year money has fallen below 100 bp from 120 bp at the end of last year. The 10-year premium has fallen from nearly 125 bp to almost 100 bp. Although the US premium over Germany appears to have begun widening again, it has not spilled over to the UK.

The eurozone reports flash PMI and money supply. Germany reports IFO, and several countries, including Germany, report retail sales. Economic growth in the eurozone, in aggregate, is not a problem. It has been fairly stable and, if anything, a little above trend. The key issue is prices. At last week's ECB press conference, Draghi argued that underlying price pressures remain muted. Despite the pop in headline prices (1.1% in December from 0.6% in November), core inflation is subdued at 0.9% compared with the trough at 0.6%.

One of the concerns of policymakers and investors is a problem with Italian banks. While this is still a work in progress, we note that Italian bank shares have advanced in six of the past eight weeks. More broadly, the bank sub-index of the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has fallen for the past two weeks and is off five of the last eight weeks.

Japan reports December trade figures and CPI. There is a strong seasonal component to Japan's trade balance. Over the past 20 years, the December trade balance has not improved over November only three times. Exports appear to have risen on a year-over-year basis for the first time since September 2015. Imports are slowly recovering as well. Excluding food and energy, Japan's CPI is expected to fall back below zero for the first time since August 2013.

The drivers of the yen seem clear, and it is not the domestic economy per se. Rather the dollar-yen continues to be driven by two attractors--US yields and equities. On a purely directional basis, the correlation between US 10-year yields and the dollar-yen exchange rate is above 0.95 over the past 60 and 100 days. On a percent change basis, the correlation is at the upper end of where it has been since the middle of 2014. The correlation on a directional basis between the Nikkei and dollar-yen and the S&P 500 and dollar-yen are also elevated. On a percentage change basis, the correlations are not nearly as strong, of course, but are at or near multi-month highs.

Lastly, we note that the Australia reports Q4 CPI figures. The headline rate is expected to accelerate to 1.6% from 1.3%. Price pressures appear to be bottoming in Australia. A 1.6% pace would be the fastest quarterly increase in 2016. It was at 1.0% in Q2. Rising price pressures appear to have dampened ideas that the central bank may still cut rates. The RBA meets on February 6 and rates will most likely remain on hold. Separately, Australia will report export and import prices, and it appears the terms of trade are improving, partly with the help of stronger iron ore prices.




COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: This article points out what should be some issues that are on the Radar Screen this week. I REPEAT THE SECOND TO LAST ITEM OF WHICH WE ARE VERY WELL AWARE OF HERE AND IT IS OUR Trade Plan Two.

The drivers of the yen seem clear, and it is not the domestic economy per se. Rather the dollar-yen continues to be driven by two attractors--US yields and equities. On a purely directional basis, the correlation between US 10-year yields and the dollar-yen exchange rate is above 0.95 over the past 60 and 100 days. On a percent change basis, the correlation is at the upper end of where it has been since the middle of 2014. The correlation on a directional basis between the Nikkei and dollar-yen and the S&P 500 and dollar-yen are also elevated. On a percentage change basis, the correlations are not nearly as strong, of course, but are at or near multi-month highs.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/go...-be-trump-dump

Snippet:
Gold Price: Will The Trump Bump Be The Trump Dump?

John Ing

January 20, 2017

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...ng012017-1.png
The economic elite exemplified by the Davos participants have done much to undermine their credibility, suffering from the backlash for cheerleading the governments’ experimental monetary programmes of quantitative easing, to negative interest rates and of course globalisation which neither lifted the world economies nor provided the promised jobs. Weathermen had a better batting percentage. To be sure the rich got richer and the poor, poorer providing the fodder for President Trump’s victory. Already chastened for failing to predict the 2008 crash and Trump’s election, they have again misread the tea leaves.
It is a mistake to dismiss Trump’s missives or tweets as random missteps which Clinton and Trump’s Republican opponents made consistently. Trump in hindsight was simply posturing, sometimes testing the waters and sometimes obscuring his message, leaving him to negotiate on his terms rather than his opponents’. To be sure governments, pundits and the populace should be prepared for his “bully pulpit” and not the literal message itself. Investors would be wise to take a deep Pranayama (yoga) breath.

The New Year has brought increased volatility with the low interest rate environment fading away replaced by the politics of rage, a hard Brexit and, the Trump trade. But beneath the veneer of Trump optimism lurks high anxiety about a toxic, divided nation and deepening global concerns over multi-lateral trade wars with Europe, Middle East and China. The root causes of the Trump trade are much deeper and, underlying the lofty market optimism are wider deficits, more government intervention and an increase in protectionist measures.


Buy On Mystery, Sell On History
In a classic “buy on mystery, sell on history”, we believe Trump’s inauguration will turn the “Trump bump into the Trump dump”. Investors are anxiously anticipating Trump tax cuts and business friendly policies to spur Trump growth and ultimately more inflation. However, the market has yet to figure out the consequences of this path to growth, particularly when debt is so high. The Federal Reserve has already changed tack with the second of many interest rate increases to come.

Risks abound. Yet spreads in the bond market have not reflected these risks. Key European elections are scheduled this year. China may or may not be in the midst of a currency war that no one wins and the US dollar strength, while illusory has exacerbated the problems in Europe and Mexico. Brexit festers away. And the solutions? Not from the economic elite, to be sure. Nor from the media elite. Voters are right to sense that the answers are not to be found in the old familiar places.

In the eurozone, Italy recently nationalized the world’s oldest bank, Monte de Pesci, with a bail out by Italy’s Resolution Fund which contravened the EU's edicts and was conveniently overlooked by the regulators. One of the reasons is that Wall Street’s exposure to the EU is a reported $2 trillion exposure and roughly half of that exposure are off balance sheet items according to the US independent financial monitoring unit, the Office of Financial Research (OFR). And, despite promises of, “doing whatever it takes”, the European Central Bank (ECB) is close to the legal constraints on the amount of bonds it can buy. Then there is the two-year experiment of “pump and dump” oil markets ending when OPEC, hurt by lower prices and exploding deficits, reset the first production cut in about 13 years to raise prices, difficult since non-OPEC producers have replaced Saudi Arabia as the swing producer. Still prices have risen 25 percent since the agreement and oil is back from the dead. Investors should therefore not be in much doubt. Elevated risks and uncertainity lies ahead. To the market this is unwelcome. Clearly, though it is the reality.


Mr. Trump’s “Art Of The Deal”
Mr. Trump's complaint about America is really a structural problem. Governments over the past eight years doubled down on deficit spending, money printing and regulations, to revive their economies but those attempts haven’t worked. The American economy is chronically sick. Costs are too high, making exports uncompetitive so that America has become more of a service economy with improvements in productivity difficult to achieve.

Mr. Trump inherits a divided country, some no doubt of his own making but much due to his predecessor. Mr. Obama has been a major disappointment at home and abroad and despite the hope, rhetoric and trillions of debt, America remains stuck in a subpar recovery. Promises of income redistribution, favoured the wealthy, not the poor. His foreign policy was a disaster with this Noble Prize winner at war longer than any other American president, longer than Johnson, Lincoln and George W. Bush. In fact, some of those wars were conducted without congressional approval, an act in itself unconstitutional. Race relations are worse and, his party paid a heavy price, losing not only the White House but the House of Representatives and the Senate.

One could argue that President Trump will shake things up and in rejecting the status quo and longstanding norms both domestically and internationally, his world order would appear to trump the postwar blueprint that hugely benefitted the United States. In serving American interests, disputes were generally handled with a mutually of interest or common ground. While Trump’s appeal is the chaos that he threatens to bring, that chaos in the form of a protectionist trade agenda could only undermine America’s geopolitical influence, particularly at a time when America’s ability to remain the world’s most powerful economy is weakened by a balance sheet in shambles. And the long standing network of alliances, once dependant upon on trade, trust and pocketbook issues is now threatened. Trump’s threats are as important as money, and bullying allies or trading partners won’t be as easy as terrorizing Washington’s mandarins or auto companies.


America’s Debt Is Its Achilles Heel
While Trump’s ambitious fiscal plans will entail a big expansion of the budget deficit, that deficit will require financing and the “king of debt” will certainly launch another round of debt which will unnerve the market. However, we believe Trump’s team will seek alternatives such as extensions of longer dated securities or even, gold backed debt or other exotic securities. Where Trump has made points is that there is too much regulation. It was hard to achieve the economies of scale sometimes because of the increased regulatory tightening. Mr. Trump has sworn to take a wrecking ball to regulatory policy and will undo much of Obama’s legacy on everything from the 2,700 page ObamaCare to his nuclear deal with Iran to the Paris climate change accord using the same Executive Orders that Mr. Obama used to circumvent Congress. What can be done by the pen, will be undone by the pen.

Yet, America has been running deficits for years flooding the world with cheap dollars. The Fed has yet to unwind its swollen crisis-era balance sheet of bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Financial leverage today is much higher than 2008 and the systemic risk is greater. Instead of subprime mortgages, we have subprime auto debt for example. US treasury debt issuance doubled in size over the last eight years. Until recently there was no problem for America to finance the deficits with foreign money. In the first nine months of 2016, foreigners purchased almost $3 billion every day. However, foreign appetite has been waning and the dependence upon the largesse of foreigners is America’s Achilles heel.

In addition, foreigners have adopted a more cautious wait-and-see attitude with respect to Mr. Trump's policies. Should Trump decide to clash with America’s trading partners, they might not be so willing to finance “America First” agenda of tariff barriers and competitive devaluations. The very real prospect of a currency war where both sides seek a trade advantage has forced each country to focus on their domestic economies and to look for alternatives.


Russia And China’s Plan B
A global stampede into US assets pushed the Trump dollar to near 14 year highs, but swiftly corrected on Trump’s musings and weakening economic fundamentals. Mr. Trump’s musings about the strong value of the dollar, raised fears that his presidency could set off a new round of currency wars in a “beggar thy neighbour” fight that could set the ground for a broader trade war. In the Middle East, the Saudis have run a fiscal deficit of almost 10 percent of GDP. To fund their deficits, the Saudis and other Gulf countries have been selling their reserves, dumping US treasuries. China too has sold $150 billion of US treasuries to support the renminbi, dipping into its $3 trillion stockpile. Still, China’s reserves are twice its foreign debt. Russia also has been selling US assets. Since July 2014, China has seen a near $1 trillion dip in their reserves as they also bought euros as a means to finance recent acquisitions and prop up the renminbi. Today, US interest rates are above those in the euro area which remain negative with the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan both setting their benchmark rates below zero, continuing to print money with no end in sight.

During the Dirty Thirties, rounds and rounds of competitive devaluations and trade barriers in a “beggar thy neighbour” policy gave rise to the disastrous Smoot-Hawley legislation which led to the Depression. A new trade war is in no nation’s interest, particularly America. Not only is a tariff for tariff war expensive but risks spreading where no one wins. While fundamentally a lower renminbi would help Chinese exports, it certainly would widen the trade deficit with America at a time when both countries are each other's major trading partner. China's depreciating renminbi has also impacted its neighbors, giving the renminbi an added export advantage. Post-election US trade policies under Trump's presidency will be key. So far the rhetoric and threats may just be Trump’s way of an opening bid ahead of negotiations, but risks of an escalation have increased significantly and the critical variable will be the dollar. Currencies, commodity levels and legislation will be top of mind as the US dollar’s share of currency reserves slipped to 63 percent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


A Return To A Gold Standard?
Today, China and others have their currencies pegged to the dollar and its strength is hurting their economies leading to talk of a return to protectionist barriers. With a debt load at 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), America’s balance sheet is in shambles. They not only have massive debts but are still running big deficits. At $20 trillion, nearly half of that debt is owed to foreigners. The United States is the world’s most privileged nation, with the privilege of paying their bills in a currency it prints, allowing them to consume more than they produce. Significantly, that privilege rests on the confidence of its creditors but lately that confidence has been frayed.

Mr. Trump’s ambitious policies are clear, but it will cost money. America has very little savings and so their deficits are set to grow again. The stock market? It is built on sand and higher rates to attract foreign dollars will be needed which will remove yet another prop under the overvalued market. Looks deceive. Today America’s trading partners are pursuing a Plan B. Exporters of oil are taking euros, renminbi or yen for their oil. China has become less dollar dependent and central banks are adding to stockpiles of gold leftover as legacy assets from prior gold-backed currency regimes. We believe China could make the renminbi backed by gold. After all, one time its currency was backed by silver.

For the past two years, China and Russia have been adding to their gold reserves reducing their dependence on the dollar. China has become the sixth largest holder in the world at 1,833 tonnes but is only 2 percent of reserves in contrast to the 10 percent average held by most western central banks. Yet China’s total holding is much larger since they have been adding to their gold hoard both officially and unofficially. It has been reported that Chinese banks hold some 2,000 tonnes for their customers and last year over 1,200 tonnes were withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold in the world. We believe that itsmassive $3 trillion hoard of foreign exchange is slowly being invested in gold which is denominated in dollars, but does not have the purchasing power risk of US treasuries. Russia too has accumulated 1,542 tonnes ranking seventh in the world. In total, Russia and China hold more gold than the United States, the world’s largest holder at 8,134 tonnes. Mr. Trump would be wise to remember the golden rule when he next threatens these two from his bully pulpit.


Gold Is Money
Lastly, desperate for revenues, countries have declared a war on “private savings”. In the West, closure of tax havens, targeting offshore companies and even negative interest rates have confiscated savings. Some countries like Greece, Venezuela and even Iceland are experimenting with capital controls because of their need for revenues as an alternative to debasing their debts. China too recently introduced restrictions on forex outflows to slowdown the renminbi’s depreciation. Iceland imposed capital controls to protect the krona, but soon imports became too expensive causing Iceland’s foreign debtholders to be concerned about the repayment of Iceland’s debt.

And then, taking aim at savers. India demonetized its high-value bank notes, targeting the cash-driven black market. The cash-cancelling move caused chaos in the Indian banking system with lineups frustrating everyone since more than 86 percent of the cash in circulation became worthless overnight. Nearly 80 percent of India’s consumer activity is in cash and while the country’s tax base is only 10 percent of the economy, cheap loans were offered to stimulate India’s $2 trillion GDP which collapsed because of the money grab. Embarrassingly with nine-tenths of cancelled notes returned there was neither an increase in economic activity nor a rush in government revenues. Car sales actually fell 19 percent. Notable was that short term imports fell after the demonetization but gold ownership actually increased. Ironically, Indian refiner incentives introduced gold ownership as tender – a defacto Indian gold standard. Venezuela, followed India’s example by demonetizing nearly half of that country’s bank notes to fight the black market, hurting its people who are suffering from hyperinflation, cash shortages and an economic meltdown. Gold of course skyrocketed. In the Middle East, the new Shari’ah gold investment standard will encourage gold purchases. Money is no longer money Gold is a protector from this war on savings.

As a result, gold is back in demand amid increasing concerns over the health of the global economy and doubts that Trump can make America great again. The belief that there is a worldwide war on savings, geopolitical and trade concerns has caused money to chase gold. Mr. Trump does not seem to be bothered by debt. America’s deficits are unsustainable. The deficit has risen to the point where the US must borrow $150 billion every day. We are concerned that foreign investors may go on strike because they already have too many dollars and he may give them a reason to pursue Plan B.

The problem is not new. After eight years, we continue to warn about America’s vulnerability. America’s debt load is unsustainable. The world has too many dollars. America does not have a Plan B. Gold is a barometer of currency fears. If investors believe that the dollar is an overvalued currency, and also lack the confidence in other currencies, gold is a natural haven. Without confidence in the dollar, the world has no valid reserve currency. If confidence is not restored, the pressure will be to pursue tried and unsuccessful measures like competitive devaluations, protectionism or again, money printing. Both the dollar and gold are telling us that an adjustment lies ahead. Gold is a good thing to have. We continue to believe, once it breaks above $1,250 an ounce, that gold’s new bull run will reach $2,200 an ounce – a perfect Plan B.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: John Ing is a Canadian expert on Gold and on the economy. His analysis as is clear to see is wide ranging and covers all areas of common interest. What I do myself with such a comprehesive and well written article is to print it out and read it a few times. Then file it away and refer back to it when it is needed. This will be the end of my research for Sunday and as I always request if you have any questions or comments then please post them here. Knowledge is POWER only if the knowledge is used and applied.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...empt-from-law/

JUST SO WE KNOW !!!


Benjaminis


QUESTION: Trump seems to be interested in changing education. This seems to be really controversial. What are your thoughts on this subject.

ANSWER: Yes, there are people yelling about reducing or gutting public education. Let’s get real about this. The two WORST areas of abuse have been medical care and education. Both are increasing at costs way ahead of anything else in the economy. Why? Corruption inspired by subsidizing from government. Trump has been talking about:

1. Consolidate ALL current repayment plans into a single Income-Based Repayment program (IBR) where students pay 12.5% of their income toward their loans each month and receive total loan forgiveness after 15 years
2. Plans to cover increased forgiveness amounts (and the higher cost to taxpayers) due to shorter repayment terms by lowering federal spending accordingly
3. Promises to scale back funding significantly for the Department of Education

There is a test in economics known as the Baumol’s cost disease, or the Baumol effect. The assumption is a free market study whereas a rise of salaries in jobs that have experienced no actual increase in the labor productivity is a response to rising salaries in other jobs where there has been an increase in labor productivity growth. This Baumol effect operated counter to the classical economic theory which assumed real wage growth is closely tied to labor productivity changes.


In other words, let’s say the average wage is $10,000 annually. There is a shortage in IT developers. Suddenly they now pay $20,000 annually. The rise of wages in other jobs without any productivity gains whatsoever takes place as other jobs now have to compete with rising wages in an unrelated field. How many student have gone to school for medicine or law simply because they were the higher paying jobs.

There are quantitative studies that have shown that there are significant rises in tuition for college that is disproportionate to the rise in potential income one would earn (see Tuition-Study). The Federal Student Loan Program (FSLP) has fuel the increases in the costs exponentially because the colleges know they will get paid. They do not have to compete so the costs have increased beyond the increase in wages. Forbes Magazine showed that 60% of students cannot find a job in what they paid for in college. If this was finance, they would be in prison for 25 years calling in fraud. We have consumer fraud laws, but none of this applies to education. Students are burdened with loans that are for degrees that are totally worthless.

College tuition rose 106% between 1987 and 2010, which was far more than the 78% increase salaries. Tuition studies have shown that the FSLP alone generate a 102% tuition increase. Such studies have stated that their findings “cast doubt on Baumol’s cost disease as a driver of higher tuition.”
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ts-231x300.jpgThis is the greatest of all frauds because the Clintons handed to the banks to exempt students from the bankruptcy laws. They go into debt to pay loans for degrees that are worthless. Then, the bankers are clever. They won that exemption from the Clintons, which Larry Summers supported, under the pretense that these students had no collateral and were thus risky warranting that they could not go bankrupt. Then the bankers would demand the parents cosign. Hence, they played fast and loose with the laws and managed to get collateralize loans exempt from bankruptcy.


The State of New Jersey refused to forgive a student loan co-signed by a mother after her son was murdered. This was not unique. A mother from Michigan ended up in the same position. “That’s when American Education Services (AES) and National Collegiate Trust (NCT) turned my son’s dream into a nightmare for me and the two year old son he left behind.”


MY RECOMMENDATION TO TRUMP:
If a student cannot find employment with a degree after 3 years, then the loan should be forgiven COMPLETELY and the college will have to reduce what it received by 50%. End exceptions to the bankruptcy law NOW and state publicly that the Clinton laws for the bankers are being REPEALED.
“The Congress shall have Power To…establish…uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States….”


ARTICLE I, SECTION 8, CLAUSE 4
The Bankruptcy Clause was to prevent a debtor who won a discharge of a debt in his state being prosecuted by a creditor trying to collect the debt in another state. That was the original intent and implicit within that clause is Equal Protection of the law. Therefore, I contend that the Clintons violated the Constitution by exempting student loans from the bankruptcy law.


EQUAL PROTECTION CLAUSE
No State shall…deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

AMENDMENT 14, SECTION 1
Categories: Education, Rule of Law

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ons-maybe-more

by Tyler Durden
Jan 22, 2017 5:25 PM
22


"The Trump Wars of the past 18 months do not now go away. Now it becomes the Trump Civil War, every day, with Democrats trying to get rid of him and half the country pushing back. To reduce it to the essentials: As long as Mr. Trumps party holds the House, it will be a standoff. If the Democrats take the House, they will move to oust him.

Because we are divided. We are two nations, maybe more."

-Peggy Noonan, WSJ
Definitely more, Peggy. Definitely more.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0122_two_0.jpg
And that is why war is on the horizon that no longer feels quite as distant as it once did. But at least one nation, the American nation, has a leader worth his salt.

Normally a new president has someone backing him up, someone publicly behind him.

Mr. Obama had the mainstream media - the big broadcast networks, big newspapers, activists and intellectuals, pundits and columnists of the leftthe whole shebang. He had a unified, passionate party.

Mr. Trump in comparison has almost nothing. The mainstream legacy media oppose him, even hate him, and will not let up. The columnists, thinkers and magazines of the right were mostly NeverTrump; some came reluctantly to support him. His party is split or splitting. The new president has gradations of sympathy, respect or support from exactly one cable news channel, and some websites.

He really has no one but those who voted for him.

Do they understand what a lift daily governance is going to be, and how long the odds are, with so much arrayed against him, and them?

-Peggy Noonan, WSJ
The USA now contains considerably more than two nations. That's why it is no longer any more viable than the European Union. It's been held together by force, easy credit money, and sleight of hand for a long time, but not for much longer.

The inaugural address was utterly and uncompromisingly Trumpian. The man who ran is the man wholl reign.

It was plain, unfancy and blunt to the point of blistering. A little humility would have gone a long way, but thats not the path he took. Nor did he attempt to reassure. It was pow, right in the face. Most important, he did not in any way align himself with the proud Democrats and Republicans arrayed around him. He looked out at the crowd and said he was allied with them.

-Peggy Noonan, WSJ
For all his strength of will and civic nationalism, Trump cannot save the political entity, but he can put the American nation in a much better, much stronger position before the growing rifts become borders. He should take those who say he is not their president at their word, because they are neither the Posterity of the Founders nor We the People...

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Normally I stay away from the Politics of Government however this time it becomes part of the GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES.

The article is factual as we have all witnessed since Friday and it will not improve anytime soon. President Trump appears to be sincere and he is the CATALYST for change of the STATUS QUO in everything and so he now has many many enemies even if it is unfair and not justified because Life is Never Fair, Life is what you can negotiate.

I found a most incredible article about one month ago that clearly explains how Human Nature has taken over Common Sense and when I find it I will post the link here from The Burning Platform.

There was too very revealing articles however the longer one dealing with human psychology ad much deeper issues I will find at a later date. This one by world famous Martin Armstrong is excellent as well and is more fact based than human based both being important of course. The better that we understand the world that we live in then the better that we know how to survive in it being fully aware of what we must know.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...f/#more-141243

The “Trump Revolution” is not about Trump Himself
Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ump-Limits.jpg
Do not confuse the “Trump Revolution” with Trump himself. The people are sick and tired of the same old nonsense. Trump just so happened to be there at the right time. This is a revolution of the people — not Trump! I have stated many times that if Trump did anything out of line or unconstitutional, I would call him out in a second. Trump did something really amazing that I would have thought was impossible. He effectively ran as a third party candidate from within the Republican Party. He altered the party and they still do not respect that. My inside sources say the Republicans think they just have to train him. They are not looking at why he won any more than the Democrats are.


I find it interesting that the people he is bringing in are not politicians. That is encouraging. Bringing in Goldman Sachs and Sullivan & Cromwell gives me tremendous pause that he is really draining the swamp, and he may not even know what he has done. I have gotten a lot of emails on this, for they had no idea about Sullivan & Cromwell. He comes from real estate — not investment banking or trading. He certainly has not rubbed shoulders with these people as I have. So I am willing to wait and see.

However, I have worked behind the curtain for more than 30 years. I have seen politics raw and close up. I do what I do today because it is clear to me that you cannot change anything from inside. I am neither Republican nor Democrat. I see no difference between the two behind the curtain because it always boils down to “show me the money.”
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....Believe-In.jpg
The danger Trump also brings is that his failure to deliver promises may lead to the total collapse of the political system. We have Trump because of Obama’s failures. Since he was the first black president, hopes for change were high, but his total failure to change anything from the NSA to giving the innocent people at Guantanamo Baya fair trial of any kind demonstrated that either Obama was a grand liar and never intended to deliver change, or he succumbed to the establishment.

Obama completely failed to deliver “Change we can believe in.” Now the same test will be applied to Trump. If someone who ran against the elite Republicans also succumbs to the establishment, this is all over. Trump has the opportunity to slow the collapse for a brief period and demonstrate to the world that socialism is our downfall. If he fails to show the world by example, then the decline that is coming will be steep.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....c-1024x598.jpg
We cannot alter the cycle. What I do believe is possible has to do with the volatility. Trump can lower the volatility that is coming by doing the right thing. It will be hard because the left is becoming very, very dangerous. If Trump succumbs to the establishment, I fear that the volatility will be the worst we have ever seen.

The left will become violent and we may see street violence globally as these people fight to suppress and eliminate any of us who dare to disagree with them.

You have nut jobs like Rosie O’Donald calling for Martial Law and overthrowing the Constitution. You have others calling for impeachment when you can only impeach someone for something they did in office – not prior to.


The left is just off the wall. The Sydney Morning Held in Australia said, “Donald Trump is a one-man basket of deplorables.” They went on to say, “One remote remedy is impeachment by the House and conviction by the Senate. It is, as it should be, a laborious process and requires provable acts of treason, bribery or other ‘high crimes and misdemeanours.’” None of that applies to anything someone does prior to office. The left are the most intolerant people you will ever encounter, yet they delude themselves to be fair and tolerant.


The article proposed another tactic. “Under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, the vice-president, together with a ‘majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide’ can remove the president for being ‘unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.’ No doubt the mere mention of incapacitation would summon a horde of lawyers to Washington to contest it or the meaning of every term.”
The refusal to accept the election and just move on is obvious. This is dangerous for these are the very people who have historically revolted against, and murdered on a wholesale basis, anyone who disagrees with them. This is the danger we face moving forward.

By coincidence The Burning Platform just came out today with Part Two of this most important issue of "CHANGE" that affects the world community.

The article is extremely long and I will print out a copy of the article to review. I will post the link here now and place just 3 Snippets. I strongly suggest that when you have the time or interest you take the time to read it as it will open your eyes very wide and let you understand why we are dealing with this incredibly important matter that affects every human in the world in some way.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...o/#more-141060

Snippet One:
COMMON SENSE – 2017 (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I explored Thomas Paine’s critical role in the creation of our nation. His Common Sense pamphlets inspired the common people to uncommon acts of courage and heroic feats of valor; leading to the great experiment we call the United States of America. Paine, Franklin and the other Founding Fathers produced a republic, if we could keep it.


John Adams championed the new Constitution precisely because it would not create a democracy, as he knew a democracy “soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself.” Their herculean efforts, sacrifices, and bloodshed have been for naught as we allowed our republic to devolve into a democracy and ultimately into our current corporate fascist warfare/welfare surveillance state. Sadly, we were unable to keep the republic Franklin and his fellow revolutionaries gave us.
https://teresainfortworth.files.word...6601643130.jpg
“From the errors of other nations, let us learn wisdom.” – Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Some might contend Paine’s Common Sense arguments against a despotic monarchy two and a half centuries ago, with an audience of two and a half million colonists, couldn’t be pertinent today in a divided nation of 325 million people. But when you examine the events, actions and catalysts inspiring Paine to pen Common Sense, you see the parallels with the events, decisions and facilitators of our current Crisis.


For more than a decade before the eruption of open hostilities, tensions had been building between colonists and the British authorities. An overbearing far flung British Empire began to pillage the colonies to pay for their corrupt kingdom by shaking them down through the Stamp Actof 1765, the Quartering Act of 1765, the Townshend Tariffs of 1767 and the Tea Act of 1773.

This taxation without representation was met with passionate protest among many colonists, who resented their lack of representation in Parliament and demanded the same rights as other British subjects. These demands were met with arrogant indifference by the monarchy and a haughty parliament. Forcing colonists to feed and house the very soldiers who were being paid with their taxes to repress them was the ultimate insult.


Initially, the colonists just fumed at the domineering disrespect shown them by the British ruling establishment. The pillaging of their hard earned wealth by distant oppressors prompted the colonists to initially organize nonviolent resistance and embargoing British luxury goods. As anger against their authoritarian overseers boiled over, the British cracked down harder in their version of a colonial surveillance state. Colonial resistance eventually led to bloodshed in 1770, when British soldiers opened fire on a mob of colonists, killing five men in what became known as the Boston Massacre.


Parliament eventually backed down and repealed all of the duties except for one symbolic duty on tea. In December 1773 the Samuel Adams inspired Sons of Liberty, dressed as Mohawk Indians, boarded British ships and dumped 342 chests of tea into Boston Harbor. An outraged Parliament passed a series of measures known as the Intolerable or Coercive Acts, designed to reassert imperial authority in Massachusetts. In response, a group of colonial delegates (including George Washingtonof Virginia, John and Samuel Adams of Massachusetts, Patrick Henry of Virginia and John Jay of New York) met in Philadelphia in September 1774 to give voice to their grievances against the British crown.
http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/w...-Tea-Party.jpg
This First Continental Congress did not mandate liberation from Britain, but it denounced taxation without representation, maintenance of the British army in the colonies without their consent, and issued a declaration of the rights due every citizen, including life, liberty, property, assembly and trial by jury. The Continental Congress voted to meet again in May 1775 to consider further action, but before it convened again Paul Revere made his fateful ride and local militiamen fired the first shots of the Revolutionary War at Lexington & Concord. These events set in motion Paine’s call to arms and the Declaration of Independence shortly thereafter.

Snippet Two:
If you are blind to the parallels with our current position in this Fourth Turning, you are either wallowing in willful ignorance or you are a functionary within the debased establishment. One of Paine’s main themes was society was a blessing while government was, at best, a necessary evil.


Paine believed in the power of the people. Society constitutes everything constructive people create through working together. The creation of businesses, inventions, scientific discoveries, art, and literature has never required government. Collaboration among individuals brings about positive outcomes and the advancement of society. People transact business, cooperate, follow societal norms, and live their lives on a daily basis with absolutely no intervention or oversight from an oppressive threatening government entity.

Human beings are fallible creatures with a weakness for the vices of greed, envy, lust, pride and a few others. The only true purpose of government is the protection of life, liberty and property. Paine presented government as an organization whose lone function was to inhibit the wickedness in man.

Government’s fundamental purpose is to provide security from foreign invaders and insure property rights are protected. The success of a government should be judged by the extent to which it fulfills these roles. Society is a force which promotes our happiness positively, while government is a coercive force, which at best has a neutral impact on our lives and at its worse, hampers our lives through coercion.

Paine believed the British monarchy had too much power over the lives of the colonists. The hereditary succession of the monarchy led to the elevation of asses to the throne while pretending he was a lion. King George III was just such an ass.

The purposeful complexity of the British system of government was designed to centralize power in the hands of the few, unlawfully and unjustifiably seizing control from the people. A government should be judged on whether it improves society or makes it worse. If the government does not represent the will of the people then it needs to be discarded or overthrown. The larger the government bureaucracy, the more disordered its decision making, and more likely corruption, tyranny, and taxation will burden the citizens.

Paine scoffed at the absurdity of branches of government checking each other. Once entrenched in power the aristocratic civil servants only served themselves and their financial benefactors. The happiness and well-being of the people was not their concern. Every government, even if its initial design had a noble purpose, devolves into a fetid swamp of control freaks, the tyrannical power hungry, egomaniacal sociopaths, and feckless apparatchiks. It becomes a bane and punisher of the people.
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/wp-...repeal-act.jpg
“Society is produced by our wants, and government by wickedness; the former promotes our happiness positively by uniting our affections, the latter negatively by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first is a patron, the last a punisher.” – Thomas Paine, Common Sense
Government of the People, By the People, For the People

“I offer nothing more than simple facts, plain arguments, and common sense.” – Thomas Paine
https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/vj/liv...rump_k8mwk.jpg
“We still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry and grasping at the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised to furnish new pretenses for revenue and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without a tribute.” – Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Three generations have passed since Paine’s words inspired a revolution, but they ring as true today as they did during that fateful year of 1776. We have been ruled by an oppressive tyrannical establishment, bent on controlling and regulating every aspect of our lives, over-taxing hard working Americans to pay for its welfare/warfare surveillance state, indebting unborn generations with over $200 trillion of unfunded promises, enriching themselves and their Deep State benefactors, impoverishing the people through systematic inflation, globalizing their jobs to Asia, and treating hard working Americans with utter contempt.

The 2008 Federal Reserve/Wall Street created global financial collapse and subsequent banker bailout, while throwing senior citizens and the common man under the bus catalyzed this Fourth Turning. Main Street and flyover America did not participate in the faux economic recovery flogged by Obama, his minions, and their media mouthpieces.

Snippet Three:
Propaganda, fake economic data, and a vacuous divisive empty suit Deep State pawn president, running up the national debt by $9.3 trillion while enriching Wall Street, the military industrial complex, and the sickcare complex, did nothing to benefit average Americans. The result of this blatant disregard for the well-being of millions has backfired on the establishment.


The elevation of Donald Trump to the presidency has marked the regeneracy moment of this Fourth Turning. The mood of the country has taken a dramatic turn, with the normal people attempting to take back control of the government from malevolent Deep State financial, military, media, and corporate interests. This invisible government establishment is far more entrenched and malignant than the British monarchy confronted by Thomas Paine.


Just as the Loyalists supported the armed clampdown upon the liberty seeking revolutionaries by the redcoats, the deranged leftist useful idiots rioting in DC and in the liberal urban bastions around the country this past week are at war against normalcy, self-reliance, fiscal responsibility, the family values that built this nation, and the geographic will of 85% of the country.

Despite the wailing, gnashing of teeth, breaking of windows, setting limousines on fire, dressing as vaginas, calling for the assassination of Donald Trump, and overall infantile behavior of the losers in this recent election, the fact remains Trump won the popular vote in 30 states, accumulated an electoral landslide victory, and struck a chord with normal average family people who have been left behind by a government designed to benefit an autocratic few and buy off special interests for their votes.

These supposedly grass roots rallies representing all women were nothing more than another George Soros/Democrat Party funded propaganda effort to discredit Trump’s overwhelming victory. The dying left wing media mouthpieces for the establishment felt a tingle up their legs as they breathlessly reported on the prodigious hatred for a man who has been in office for one day.

Where were these patriots for the last eight years as their savior president droned wedding parties, blew up hospitals in the Middle East, and oversaw the unlawful collection of personal data by his rogue NSA spies? You didn’t hear any of the fake news pundits on CNN or MSNBC mention that 30 million deplorable women had voted for Trump and he crushed Hillary among white women with 53% of the vote.

The vitriolic, unhinged reaction to Trump’s victory by a fearful establishment, their fake news corporate media hacks, and the parasitical special interests dependent upon free shit, should be a wake-up call for the normal, hard-working, tax paying, self-reliant, liberty minded people in this country. The deeply rooted evil establishment and their feckless, toady, easily manipulated, useful idiot minions have declared war on Trump and the normals (aka deplorables) who voted for him.

After the battles of Lexington & Concord the British Empire declared war on the colonies. Many colonists still longed for reconciliation, but Thomas Paine and his fellow patriots knew that was impossible. This was going to be a fight to the death. If they lost, Paine and his brethren would be hanged.

Paine’s simple facts, plain words and common sense bolstered the morale of the American colonists, provided backbone to those on the fence, appealed to the English people’s consideration of the war with America, clarified the issues at stake in the war, and denounced the advocates of a negotiated peace. There was no time to be a summer soldier or sunshine patriot in 1776. We now stand on the precipice of another era of revolution. These are new times, but they will also try our souls. Words do matter. This really is a war and must be fought on all fronts.

The dumbing down of the American populace through the government run public education system results in tens of millions being intellectually incapable of resisting the never ending onslaught of Deep State propaganda through critical thought. Restoring the public’s ability to use common sense, sound reasoning, and good judgement is a virtual impossibility today, as a vast swath of the populace couldn’t name a Founding Father, why we celebrate July 4, or even voted in this past election. There were approximately 231 million eligible voters on November 8 and only 136 million voted. The apathy of the 95 million non-voters is a reflection of our iGadget addicted, debauched, feeble minded, bread and circuses distracted, confederacy of fools culture.


With a population of 325 million, versus the 2.5 million in Paine’s day, the question is how many patriots will be required to vanquish the Deep State sycophants and their useful idiot followers. It has been noted only 3% of colonists truly fought for independence during the American Revolution. One third remained loyal to the crown, one third passively supported independence and another third didn’t support either side. We have a similar dynamic today with about 30% supporting Trump’s revolution, 30% supporting the corrupt establishment, and 40% choosing to not participate. If the 3% still applies, it will only take 7 million out of Trump’s 63 million voters to successfully see the revolution through to its conclusion.


The venomous reaction from the fake news corporate media to Trump’s plain spoken, direct, and truthful, common sense inaugural address reveals his opponents true nature. They called the speech dark, gloomy, scary, and Hitler like. Trump derangement syndrome has clearly infected this insane clown posse of brainless talking heads and vacuous spokesmodels as they mouth the lines written by their establishment employers.


He directly confronted his establishment enemies as they sat in front of him by declaring war on their petty world of corruption, malfeasance, idolatry of power, world domination, globalization, and disregard for the lives of the common people. Just as Paine had declared in 1776, Trump declared this week – there will be no reconciliation, no negotiated peace, and no truce. His war on the establishment will be fought to the finish, with a clear winner and a clear loser. His address is the new Common Sense for common people looking to take back control of their government.


Trump immediately struck at the heart of the Washington DC beltway beast. The people out in the hinterlands, beyond the DC, NYC, LA, SF elitist enclaves, have been left behind and discarded while the connected few reaped unwarranted riches.

“For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.”

Just as Paine delineated between the liberty seeking patriots and the despotic monarchical regime of King George III, Trump doesn’t play the standard political party games. This is a revolutionary movement. It’s the forgotten men and women versus the non-responsive imperious government.


“What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction that a nation exists to serve its citizens.”

Trump demolished the fake news storylines of economic advancement, low unemployment, reduced crime rates, and a thriving middle class. The media pundits were aghast when he told the truth about a nation in decay. After 50 years and $10 trillion of Great Society welfare programs, the poverty rate is near all-time highs; 43 million (up by 12 million since recession officially ended in 2009) people depend on food stamps to survive; over 100 million working age Americans aren’t working; real wages are lower than they were thirty years ago; and millions of family sustaining blue collar jobs have been off-shored to Asia in the name of globalization.


Our government run public schools are nothing more than social engineering indoctrination centers wasting $12,000 per student by having mediocre overpaid union teachers flog common core pabulum to disinterested students. They graduate functionally illiterate morons into society, further degrading the civic character of our nation, while in liberal run cities, like Chicago, murder rates skyrocket as black communities implode due to the breakdown of the family unit, welfare mentality, drugs, and placing no value on education. Trump’s assessment of this carnage is dead on.

“But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge; and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.”

Trump scorched the globalization acolytes and neo-cons with his common sense appraisal of how we’ve wasted our wealth benefiting other countries and global corporations, while disregarding our own decaying infrastructure and families’ dependent upon decent paying jobs to make an honest living. The priorities of the establishment have enriched their corporate masters while destroying a once thriving middle class.


“We spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. We’ve made other countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world.”


It is telling how low we’ve sunk as a nation when the intellectual elitists reference Hitler when pandering to their disturbed demagogues of despair while describing Trump’s speech. I guess the author of the Declaration of Independence would be classified as a Nazi by today’s standards, as his words were directly echoed by Trump:
“Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations…entangling alliances with none” – Thomas Jefferson


“We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow.” –Donald Trump

If CNN, MSNBC, or the Washington Post had existed in 1776, they would have classified Thomas Paine as a terrorist, exposing his failed business ventures, failed marriages, and revealing him to be too pugnacious and nasty to be taken seriously. They couldn’t demand that he release his tax returns, since the individual income tax didn’t get enacted until 137 years later in the dreadful year of 1913. They would have glorified King George III as a benevolent father figure and boldly predicted a landslide victory for the British Army against Washington’s ragtag army of farmers.


The dying legacy media are the propaganda arm of the establishment and will need to be crushed without impunity by the Trump administration and the hundreds of alternative truth telling media websites representing the Thomas Paines of today. One Thomas Paine cannot influence 200 million people the way he influenced 2.5 million in 1776, but an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men, can make an impact during the most crucial period of this Fourth Turning Crisis.


Trump has pointed out what is wrong with our government. The outcry from those comfortable with the status quo has been spiteful, lashing out irrationally in a crazed manner, which will surely bring more normal people over to Trump’s side. Time and results will convert more to the right side of history.
“A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” – Thomas Paine, Common Sense


Just as the British levied taxes on the colonies to pay the debts of their French & Indian War adventures and their sprawling empire, our malevolent surveillance state wages undeclared wars across the globe, having wasted over $6 trillion in the Middle East since 2003, and extracts taxes from our paychecks at the point of a gun to pay for these neo-con wet dreams. The $20 trillion of accumulated debts and the $200 trillion of unfunded future obligations are nothing but tax obligations of our children and unborn generations.

Just as the British military invaded the homes of American colonists, police state thugs roam our streets with impunity, intimidating, shaking down and acting as the truncheon for the establishment. The Fourth Amendment has been gutted by the powers that be, with the First and Second under constant attack.
Paine believed in the common sense golden rule.

“When I was teaching children I began every day writing this on the blackboard: “Do to others what you would like them to do to you”, telling them how much better the world would be if everybody lived by this rule.” –Thomas Paine, Common Sense

But he realized everyone does not live by that rule. In fact, very few people live by that rule. They believe they are owed something for being born. The right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness isn’t good enough. The leftists fighting Trump tooth and nail believe they are entitled to special rights, privileges, and benefits. These special snowflakes have been triggered by the big bad mean talking Trump and after getting their paychecks from Soros will angrily protest within their liberal urban blue safe zones. If they ever violently venture into the 85% of the country colored red, the carnage will be instantaneous.
https://i0.wp.com/metrocosm.com/wp-c...county-map.png
The contemptible fake news media continues to flog the popular vote drivel of a country divided. This map shows a much unified country, unified against the liberal elite and their enslaved welfare state dregs occupying the miniscule blue areas on the map. Those in the blue believe it is their right to subdue the will of those in the red. We disagree. Let the hostilities commence. Over 90% of the legally owned firearms reside in the red areas.

“Common sense will tell us, that the power which hath endeavored to subdue us, is of all others, the most improper to defend us.” – Thomas Paine, Common Sense
Donald Trump had much more to lose than to gain by putting himself through the gauntlet of a presidential campaign. He was ridiculed, scorned, attacked, and dismissed by the ruling oligarchy and their prodigious array of propaganda mechanisms. The surveillance state used all their unlawful powers to discredit him.
He has taken on the thankless task of trying to rectify decades of bad decisions, bad policy, bad finance, bad people, and an entrenched bureaucracy of DC swamp creatures. Trump is a billionaire and could have spent his waning years golfing, mentoring his sons, and enjoying the fruits of his labor. But, like the wealthy colonial landowners Washington, Jefferson, and Madison, Trump has taken a huge risk in fighting the Washington Deep State establishment to make government work for the people again.

His inauguration speech was the first salvo in what will be a long and bloody fight. Common Sense was written in 1776 and the ratification of the U.S. Constitution was still thirteen bloody years in the future. Fourth Turnings never end in compromise. They end with a clear victor and a clear loser. The next eight years will surely try men’s souls.

Trump is fighting against a half a century of establishment rule. As we have seen already, they will not go down without a fight. Are we ready to stand and fight, or will we be summer soldiers and sunshine patriots during this crisis, shrinking from the service of our country? The future of our country depends upon our answer.

Aldous Huxley foretold the willful loss of our freedoms back in 1959. Our chance to vanquish the oligarchs has arrived.

“Under the relentless thrust of accelerating over-population and increasing over-organization, and by means of ever more effective methods of mind-manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms—elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest—will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial—but Democracy and freedom in a strictly Pickwickian sense. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.” – Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited

From Post 1330 - Just To Update For New Viewers !!!

The Wrap Up - Nightly

From Post 1330

http://ezinearticles.com/?Day-Tradin...-By&id=1398584


By Dr. Barry Burns | Submitted On August 10, 2008

http://img.ezinearticles.com/spriting/trans.gif
http://ezinearticles.com/members/mem...urns_36257.jpg
Most people looking to make money in the markets believe that the answer lies in finding some simple technical analysis strategies that will catapult them to profitability.


The truth is that trading is not as simple as beginners believe. It is a profession, and like any profession it requires a learning curve. Reading a book or getting a few simple "tips" is not going to turn you into a professional trader.


After studying for a length of time, it's not uncommon for students to begin their search for the "holy grail."


They search for more indicators, chart patterns, gurus, alert services or the latest secret day trading strategies and other things that will provide their answer to becoming successful.


But here's the fact. Success lies within you .. and it won't come easy.


In fact, one of my favorite success principles is this:
"Successful people do what unsuccessful people are unwilling to do."

Let's apply this to trading in the form of my list of "Day Trading Rules to Live By" ... all of which have to do more with you than with the market.

 

1. The consistency you need is in your mind, not in the market. Many in the market get frustrated because the market often behaves differently than they expect. You can't rely on the market to be consistent. It is largely a random walk. But there are times when the market does setup with a probability scenario that gives you an edge. Your job is be consistent in trading those probability setups and trade them every time they occur.
2. Trade like a cat. Most beginners over trade. It's one of the most common trading sins. Your job is to be better than other day traders in having the discipline to wait like a cat in the brush until just the right moment (your high probability setup) and then jump on the trade without hesitation.
3. Successful trading is simply a game of not making mistakes. Keep a list of your day trading rules posted on the wall or on your monitor and then follow those rules perfectly. You must be more disciplined than the average trader. Never depart from your rules no matter how good a trade "looks" or "feels" to you if it violates your objective and back-tested rules.
4. Only trade when you are in an optimal emotional state. Never trade when you are tired or are in an emotionally unstable situation (after a fight with a spouse or friend for example). Day trading is more like athletics than academics. Trading on such a short time frame requires you to be able to make split second decisions, and you're risking a lot of money when you do. Make sure your mind is sharp and your emotions are centered.
5. Keep a detailed trading log. Every day trading course I've seen has a trading log. Yet my experience in dealing with trading students demonstrates that less than 10% of them actually use it. This is a huge mistake. Not only should you log every trade, but you should also record how you felt and what you were thinking as you took the trade. In this way your logs will become a type of "biofeedback" mechanism for you. Personally, this was the difference that made all the difference for me.

These 5 day trading rules are not the type of rules that you were probably looking for. The masses want rules about indicators, price bars, where you get in and where you get out.


Granted, you definitely need clear objective rules about those things as well. Yet thousands of traders have those types of rules, and yet continue to fail because those rules are about market action.


They fail because they don't have, or don't follow, the more important rules the rules about their own action.

If you find yourself resisting the importance of these rules about your own behavior, realize that you are one of the masses who feels the same way. But since the masses fail at day trading, you must set yourself apart and do something different than them.


Following these 5 day trading rules are what the retail traders fail to do. Not because they can't do them, but because they are unwilling to do them. And remember, "Successful people do what unsuccessful people are unwilling to do."


Dr. Barry Burns is the owner of Top Dog Trading which teaches people how to avoid the long learning curve in day trading


He started his study of the markets under the direction of his father, Patrick F. Burns, who became independently wealthy through trading and had over 70 years of trading experience before passing away in 2005.

He has been the featured speaker at DayTradersUSA, and developed a 5 Day Course for WorldWideTrders.


Dr. Burns has been a headlining guest speaker for the Market Analysts of Southern California, given seminars around the country at many Wealth Expos as well as many Traders Expos, been interviewed on the Robin Dayne "Elite Masters of Trading" Radio Show, and is the former moderator of the FuturesTalk chat room.

He has a doctorate in Hypnotherapy and is a certified NLP practitioner, and therefore able to help people with the psychology of trading.
Article Source: http://ezinearticles.com/expert/Dr._Barry_Burns/37770

From Post 1142

All Thanks Go To TooSlow who posted this on his Thread.

 

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar240135_1.gif TooSlow
2. Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 7,117 Posts

What's the most most important thing a trader needs to know?

Answer: The most important skill you
have in trading is knowing exactly what
to do after a loss. What you do
next is what makes you great.

Let me take you through a little
progression.

If you know how to trade, you love it!
If you love trading, you know that losses
happen.

If your trade loses, you might think
it happened because you were wrong or
you made a mistake, or you just didn't
know what you were doing.

I have good news for you. None of that is true.
You were not wrong. You did not make a
mistake, nor did you fail to understand
what the market was doing.

When your trade loses, it's because the market's
timing was not there for you. Not only were
you not wrong to stop out of the trade, you
were exactly right!

What you do next is what defines you
as a trader.

Anyone can trade. Anyone can learn a strategy
and open and close a trade. What separates the
winners from the losers is what the trader does
after a loss.

- Jennifer Thornburg

For New Readers From Post 1172 - Money Flow Method with Risk Management.

I post this again so there is NO DOUBT on How To Trade Forex and Earn Money and Protect Your Capital.

Once again , I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE. I can not guarantee that you do however I will know for sure by your Forex Trading results. It is up to you not myself as I have done my part and at least three of our Forex Traders are learning well. The three that are working on it and participating. IT IS THAT SIMPLE and that has too be clear so JUST DO IT !!!


Benjaminis

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

For New Readers - From Post 1190

I found the following reply that I made to KeenPips here on Forex Factory on December 11, 2016 that I have copied and will paste here as it contains information that now is understood on our thread.

Thanks brother KeenPips

I really enjoy sharing my experience and knowledge with fellow traders which of course includes any ladies out there.

The KEY for me is to develop a Trade Plan. I have 2 right now that is based on logic and my Money Flow Method.

As you asked about Risk Management that is the KEY !!! I teach people by having them use a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK. That way you can learn without having any FEAR !!!

Now to my actual strategy. On a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account , I NEVER USE more than 20% of my trading capital. I also NEVER risk more than 6% of my capital on any one Trade Plan.

I learned a most valuable lesson during the start of my Forex trading career during March 2006. I had a client that deposited a total of $25,000 US Dollars with Trade Freedom in Montreal. I was up $25,000 US dollars within 30 days or so and my new balance trading under a LPOA (Limited Power of Attorney) was around $50,000 US dollars. I decided to go long One Million Dollars EUR/USD and to my horror one afternoon around Noon Time Alan Greenspan said something that caused EUR/USD to go down over 200 PIPS. I was SO SURE that it would REVERSE so I held it for another 30 days or so and I actually got out of my one position with a small profit. I was using the Saxo Platform at the time.

The GREAT LESSON was to in FUTURE SCALE in my positions up to my maximum Risk Management Strategy. I usually have a MAXIMUM LOSS of 100 PIPS so on one of my Trade Plans of short USD/JPY , I scale in my first position as I have done on my present demo account with FXCM UK posted on my thread. The second position is put on as it moves against me and it is usually my third position that turns out to be most profitable. If I have made a mistake on my Trade Plan then my MAXIMUM LOSS is 3 positions and the loss is $3000 US Dollars or 6% of my trading capital.

If you have any questions at all please post them and if you would like to open a demo account with FXCM UK and mail me your User Name and password then over the next 30 days I can see how you are doing. I also need to show you or anyone what symbols are needed. I use 16 different ones for my Money Flow Method. They are EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY GPD/USD USD/CNH US Dollar USD/CHF EUR/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD XAU/USD XAG/USD US30 NAS100 SPX500 Copper UKOil and BUND.

You can clearly see how by watching these symbols I have a much better handle in live time on Money Flow. I also always have LIVE CNBC and use a service like Trade The News where I have LIVE VOICE commentary on the Forex and other markets which again give me an EDGE. I hope this information has been helpful to you and other Forex traders on Forex Factory.

For New Readers - From Post 1194 - Rules Of Trading !!!

As I said earlier today now my focus goes back to you the Forex Trader.

I share the following general rules that always work as long as you know them and have the DISCIPLINE to follow them.

Trading Rules for Successful Traders

1. Limit your losses.

2. Let your profits run.

3. Keep position sizes within reason.

4. Know your risk-reward ration.

5. Be adequately capitalized.

6. Dont fight the trend.

7. Never add to losing positions. Dont average out.

8. Know market expectations.

9. Learn from your mistakes keep a trading journal.

10. Have a maximum loss or retracement in profits.



Some more useful information.

1. Never let a winner turn into a loser


2. Logic wins, impulse kills


3. Never risk more than 2% per trade


4. Trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically

5. Always pair strong with weak

6. Being right but being early simply mean you are wrong

7. Know the difference between scaling in and adding to a loser

8. What is mathematically optimal is psychologically impossible

9. Risk can be and is predetermined but reward is unpredictable

10. No excuses, ever

For New Readers - From Post 1200

Quoting KeepCalmfx
{quote} This is probably a scalper or contra trend trader, trading against the trend or with. Trader trade the retracement, target 70 pips. Would have probably change after target to re-enter short? Not sure. But better probabilities in trading with trend. I use the Fractal and SAR, not so much Awesome oscillator. what other indicators do you have up your sleeve? lol {image}
According to some analysis: although defining trade parameters is important to traders in any market, it is particularly important in the currency market since over 80% of the volume is speculative in nature. This means that currencies can spend a very long time in a certain trading environment. Also, the currency market obeys technical analysis particularly well given its large scale and number of participants.


Too many traders have tried to pick the top within a trend, only to wind up with consistently unprofitable trades.

There are basically 2 types of trading environments, which means that at any point in time an instrument is either range trading or trending. The 1st step every trader needs to take is to define the current trading environment. The shortest time frame that traders should use in step one is daily, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame.


How to Trade Trend?

To trade trend the trader needs to answer 3 basic questions:

1. Trend detection - When is a trend in place?
2. Trade entry – How is a position initiated?
3. Trade exit – What constitutes trend exhaustion?

The use of Bollinger Band is a more accurate way to glean trend, though it is often used for range-bound markets.

What is trend really? The author will postulate that trend is actually a deviance in price. Typically, in all markets prices stay in a range somewhere between 70 and 80% of the time. Therefore, when prices decide to trend they in fact deviate from the norm. That is why Bollinger Band (“BB”) becomes one of the best tools to measure deviation in technical analysis. The BB formula contains the standard deviation (“SD”) calculation within it. BB measures the standard deviation of price away from its 20-period moving average. … Price action is captured within the 1SD – 2SD Bollinger bands.

THESE BB bands divide the price action into 3 separate areas. If prices are between the upper 1 standard deviation BB and the upper 2 standard deviation BB, they are in the buy zone. If a specific currency is trading between the lower 1 SD BB and the lower 2 SD, then its price is in the sell zone. Price candles that exists in the area between the 2nd BB bands are in effect in no-man’s-land as markets struggle to find direction.

With the BB bands approach, the trend detection rule is quite straightforward. The author considers the uptrend to have commenced once the price closes – not simply penetrates, but closes – in the buy zone. The idea behind this rule is that buyers must have enough conviction behind their actions to sustain a rally into the upper BB channel. If prices merely pierce the channel but cannot hold their value, then we do not have enough evidence of a clear up move in place.

The second component of the trade is perhaps the trickiest. Instead of simply entering the trade at market we will look for an opportunity to buy on any small dip into the no-man’s-land zone. IF the penetration of the buy zone is so powerful that prices reach the upper 2 SD BB, then we will wait for prices to retrace to the middle of the bands or to the 1 SD band. Why such hesitation? Shouldn’t we jump in the moment the trend becomes clear? No. Not if you want trade FX like a professional.

When it comes to trend trading in FX, the difference between professionals and amateurs is that while the pros are trend followers, the amateurs are trend chasers. The distinction may seem like nothing more than semantics, but in fact it’s often what separates those who earn money through trading from those who lose it.

Where would the trader abandon his position? At what point on the chart will be proven most likely wrong? If prices retreat all the way back to the lower 1 SD BB, then the trader should stop out. The probability that trend is over is very high. Note the difference in approach. In order for us to consider the trend valid, prices must not only touch but close through the upper 1 SD BB. As for our exit, a mere tag of the lower 1 SD BB will take us out of the trade. Why be so slow to enter and so quick to exit? Because, as I noted before, trend is not the common state of price, so price must really prove to the trader that it is making a directional move. Once price can’t hold trend, there is absolutely no reason for the trend t trader to stay around. His risks far outweigh potential rewards because he now faces 3 possible scenarios – consolidation, trend reversal, or trend continuation. 2 out of the 3 outcomes are unfavorable to his position and the last choice, which is advantageous, is usually the least likely under such circumstances.

Using the lower 1 SD BB provides ample room for the trend trader not to be falsely shaken out of the trade while the price meanders through the no-man’s-land zone before it decides whether it wants to continue its initial impulse higher.

Understanding the exits – the 3rd rule of the trade – may now be helpful to appreciating the 2nd rule of buying only when price retraces. It all has to do with risk and reward. Remember that in real life prices frequently fake out the trade. Just because price enters into the trend channel is no guarantee that it will remain there. If markers were highly predicable most traders would make money rather than losing it. The key to positioning in a trend-based setup is to minimize the amount of losses for the countless times you will inevitable be wrong, rather than to maximize the gains for the few times that you will be right. In trading, trends are the exception, not the rule, and in order to avoid being wiped out, traders need to try to always enter the market under the most advantageous of circumstances no matter what the market environment holds. Novice traders tend to succumb to the lure of the crowd and not restrain themselves from buying at the top or selling at the bottom. The more patient trader, however, who would wait for a retracement down to the upper 1 SDBB, would suffer only a smaller loss.

- Boris Schlosseberg, Technical Analysis of the Currency Market

For New Readers - From Post 1394 on Friday - January 20, 2017.

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Good Morning Everyone

HIGH RISK TRADING DAY and a Friday to boot.

Please keep in mind Europe might go home at NOON, as they always do, however today they might not close down at NOON so watch Short Covering.

I am posting this information on USD/JPY for a reason so we only look at the charts, not trade by them since the MONEY FLOW might change all the levels as we have learned on this thread.

From Dailyfx :

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...ysis%3Ausd-jpy

Snippet:
Talking Points:

 

1. USD/JPY Technical Strategy: recent breakdown below H4 Ichimoku Cloud remains worrisome for Bulls
2. Previous Post: USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Sentiment Killer
3. SSI is currently -1.1206 onUSD/JPY as 53% of traders are currently short: To stay up with the Speculative Sentiment Index, please click here.
4. If you are looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.

When the USD moves, USD/JPY shakes, and that is exactly what happened mid-week ahead of the transition to Donald Trump as U.S. President.

Wednesday began a slew of important speeches that began with Janet Yellen, Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, noting that the Fed would continue to stay the course with rate hikes, which helped lift U.S. Treasury Yields and subsequently USD/JPY.

USD/JPY has moved higher by ~300 pips in less than 24-hours and has retraced half to the 2017 Macro Opening Range.The move higher has notably caught the attention of traders looking for the next great Bull market in USD to align with Donald Trump taking office, which is possible if his inauguration is aligned with a sharp move higher in yields. It now appears after Yellen’s rather hawkish talk on Wednesday that any move higher would need to come from the market’s anticipation that Trump will bring inflation, which would push higher the required rate in bond markets globally.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS:

The purpose of this POST is to "deprogram you" from just relying on the charts. If you use the charts by themselves, you will have great difficulty in trading Forex properly and making it your business.

Read the information and at you can see that at no point in the charts or the analysis does it, PREDICT which way the USD/JPY will go.

It is not meant to as all it is inn fact is an X RAY of te currency pair at the moment that the chart is prepared.

THAT IS THE ENTIRE POINT THAT I MAKE, as since WE know with almost 100% certainty what will happen when the equity markets in the USA head down as they will then, we KNOW where the MONEY FLOW will go and where USD/JPY will be heading at that time with the CORRELATION that we use to confirm our views.

I have much much more to say about the last 31 days, that I have been posting here on my thread.

I have had feedback from my friend and excellent student and Forex trader , KeepCalmfx and from wayfarer , the only 2 Forex traders that have passed the course so far by their desire and participation and the ONLY THING THAT COUNTS in the final analysis , their results.

I have reviewed their accounts and everyone else who has opened a FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds Demo Account and I will later today point out how the results of KeepCalmfx and wayfarer can improve substantially. I really need those that are "SERIOUS" , to post here on this thread at least once a day. Otherwise it makes it almost impossible to help you improve your Forex trading results.

We know that this is about winning and not about The Holy Grail which does not exist.

Anybody that tries to convince you that their method works or tries to sell you something has a hidden agenda. In the first case it is more of their EGO than the facts.

In the second case it is about making them money and not much else.

I want to be clear that I am not knocking anyone that has a system that works for them or their way of trading. ALL THAT I AM STATING is that I would be shocked if they could earn consistently each and every month that they trade 5% a month.

If they do then I say CONGRATULATIONS. The other part of what I do and have done for over 10 years now is use Risk Management. Without that it will be IMPOSSIBLE to not get eventually wiped out.

I want to ADD a VERY PERSONAL NOTE here now, before going for my breakfast and catching up with my other responsibilities since the time that I spend here does not earn me a living.

However I had an agenda when I started this thread on December 3, 2016. Tomorrow will be 49 days or 7 weeks of my time and energy that I invested in here. The reason that I did that was to confirm to myself that it was possible to teach anyone what took me 14 years of my life to learn starting with my three years of Demo Trading during 2003. THAT IS ALSO WHY EVERYONE HERE THAT HAS PARTICIPATED IN ANY WAY will NEVER have any charges as sometime during March 2017 , my commercial website will be up and running and as I posted here a few times there will be a monthly FEE of $50 US a month for unlimited 24/7 access. Once I start there my posting here will come to an end of this thread.

I proven that to myself now because of the excellent results of KeepCalmfx and wayfarer and some others that trade however do not post here very often or at all.

I welcome and encourage you to reply especially to this particular post.

Now we await the INAUGURATION of Donald J. Trump as 45TH President of the United States of America.

GOD BLESS AMERICA !!! AMEN !!!

CORRELATION CHART Posted by KeepCalmfx

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1484923127

US 30 (Dow Jones)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1484901650

USD/JPY

Chart from Rocky007

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1485058324

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1484901679

EXCELLENT CHANNEL CHART from wayfarer

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1484903634

From Post 1403 on January 20, 2017 - Comments on Trading with our Method.

Very Simple and FOCUSED !!!

Quoting wayfarer
Good day to all! Recently, my loss. Mainly for DOU30. Do not have time to take profits, just never traded indices and bonds. Features of behavior of asset demand to constantly monitor the monitor. So far, I have not time, we will learn. Waiting movements on technical analysis on DOU30 Screenshot_34.png;2148242 {image}
Hello wayfarer

Thanks for the channel chart.

Here is one of the keys to your trading especially when you cannot focus because of other matters that take your attention away.

To start since I have reviewed your Forex trading since December 27, 2016. For the moment we are only trading Trade Plan One and Trade Plan Two. Some of your losses have been in Gold. We trade always firstly with our two best trade plans. Now to Trade Plan Number One which is to SHORT 100 Units of US 30.

You SHORT it when it nears the TOP of the Trading Range. That is your first position. MAXIMUM LOSS is 2%. You must enter your STOP LOSS and not change it so your maximum LOSS is $1000 US Dollars.

I shorted 100 units of US 30 this morning at 8:28 AM EST and I have a DRAW DOWN now of $650 US. I put on my second position of 100 units of US 30 at 10:03 AM and now have a DRAW DOWN of $60 US Dollars at this moment. I have entered LIMIT OUTS for both positions. One will give me profits of $1515 US Dollars and the other one will be $1005 US Dollars. That was for my 100 units of US 30 SHORT done at 10:03 AM.

That is it. Go on holiday for three days. That is as simple as I can make it.

THE KEY was to have determined the Trend and then back it up with the Risk Management.

The CHARTS only give us our ENTRY POINTS. The fundamentals let us distinguish between PERCEPTION (Present Markets) and REALITY (Future Markets)

The MONEY FLOW IS AUTOMATIC and OUR EDGE.

Do not make this more complicated than that because it is not. The hardest work has already be done by most of you. Now you understand so just follow the RULES with DISCIPLINE !!!


Benjaminis

From Post 1412

Hello maximus2005

I am touching base with all our Forex traders that I see online so we can communicate more often. I am going to focus more on touching on the actual trading discipline.

I got a PM from one of our traders and what he does is what many have acknowledged doing.

I take on the responsibility of making sure that I am able to make suggestions on what not to do, as there is clearly a new and better and more profitable way to trade Forex.

Here is part of his message which covers what some others might still be doing as well. I know they are working on making changes so my remarks are meant to be positive otherwise I am not doing my job.

my problems:


1) I do not follow plan precisely - I took trades in other pairs not only in uj. Some of them were good, some of them were bad.

COMMENTARY from Benjaminis: We only have 4 Trade Plans for the moment and they are well thought out which as you can see leads to success.


2) it is difficult to know the overall daily direction of the trend. I use s/r and supply and demand zones to trade from - no indies, and it is quite ok I think, but I know I need to perfect it

Commentary from Benjaminis: I discussed this topic earlier today and all you need is to read it and if not clear please post a question here. It is much easier actually for Forex Traders that understand technicals because you get better entries. ALSO we do not SCALP TRADE as for the Trend. We use daily direction whether the 5 Minute Charts or 15 Minute Charts to get Proper Entry at the Top and we use STOP LOSS to protect against a reversal so by trying to trade on daily charts you CANNOT SUCCEED Long Term. It is NOT POSSIBLE. If not clear to anyone please let me know as that is a NO NO !!!

For example today, I went dollar short when first half of the day was dollar weakness (I am from Europe) = two bad trades.

Commentary from Benjaminis: Please STICK to our Trade Plans otherwise you defeat the purpose of what we are learning here.


3) of course - psychology - I have problem with fear, but I am aware of the fact and I am working on it.
So thats it. Any suggestions?
Have a nice weekend.

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN

That is the whole purpose of learning without FEAR and Greed on the FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds Demo Account.

I ALSO STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT YOU NOT THROW YOUR MONEY ON THE STREETS TRADING ANY REAL FUNDS unless you are independently wealthy..

Unless you understand you are more likely to lose however there are a few here actualy at the most two that probably are OK doing live trading as well. Ideally you give it at least 60 days to learn properly.