Disliked{quote} Let me give you an example how I do it, for 1 exemplary mechanical system: 1. I write an algo reflecting rules accurately 2. Lest assume a decision point is made on each candle close 3. I run a test in Monte Carlo system on one time frame. Lest assume 5m. There is about 400,000 5m candles in 4 years. So 400,000 decisions points. I repeat that simulation 2000 times over the same period. That is 800,000,000. That is a time frame number 1 for instrument number 1. I repeat that for next 4-8 instruments on next 2-4 time frames. Do calculation,...Ignored
Most traders fail because of no discipline!
{quote} Most mechanical system may fail at certain period of time but as market changes ...
- #86
- Jan 22, 2017 5:02am Jan 22, 2017 5:02am
@kpclick....hahaha come on, only 3 reasons why it wont work , btw u only need 1 solid reason for some thing not to work but u come up with 3 not so good reasons. Anyway i will answer all 3 and hope we can end this good for nothing debate because neither of us r going to make money just be arguing and its just a waste of time to argue over such topics.
So after these 3 things u mentioned happen....
(a) Trump becoming US president b) financiers agenda to abolish cash c) other known yet shifts in global economy and politics)
now what? market will not trend ? it will not consolidate? Or the trend (HH/HL or LL/LH) will be defined in a different manner? or the technical indicators wont work at all. Price action will seize to exist. The concepts of supply and demand wont work anymore? Support and resistance and pivots and all the good stuff wont work? I mean the list goes on...all those fancy things like harmonics and elliot wave (i dont use these
) but do u mean to say they wont work at all?
And the answer is no...they will still work like before...some times with snipers precision and some times way off.
a)trump becoming president?
For my strategy....as i was testing...2016 (november) was the best month for my system in 2016. followed by december...Gold went up then went south. some great opportunities to make lots of money.
Just because faces change doesn't mean their policy will change...same for all countries. anyway am not worried about it
b)agenda to abolish cash? if that happens great for me...am trading gold. So i think i will be fine(right?)
c)global events, politics, wars etc? what i have read is gold is safe haven, so until that status is attached with this commodity, i should be fine.
If u read my post twice(if u have time
) with an open mind , you will surely get what i wanted to say.
1. as long as you are making money consistently, you are doing fine whatever your trading system is.
2. if something is working for you, don't put it in absolute terms like ...hey guys this is the only way your going to be successful, until and unless you follow my system you can not make money. That is not a positive attitude and i think its a disease too(dont remember the name).
3. if you are using a mechanical system, monitor your edge's performance from time to time. (i even highlighted it before but i think u just want to argue that's why u left it intentionally,i guess)
4. my edge is based on technical indicators and price action (pattern) but with rigid rules. (i may not qualify completely for using fixed mechanical system but its close)
That was my whole point, hope this time u read it to the last letter.(so i don't have to waste my time and this threads space)
And lastly i will give you a solid reason(even though its hypothetical) why my edge or may be some one's else system fail....
that pair(in my case its gold) which you trade will just vanish from this world, not even a single grain is present with anyone in this world, then surely i will not b able to trade my system on gold , may have to tweak it so i can trade some thing else.
Peace
So after these 3 things u mentioned happen....
(a) Trump becoming US president b) financiers agenda to abolish cash c) other known yet shifts in global economy and politics)
now what? market will not trend ? it will not consolidate? Or the trend (HH/HL or LL/LH) will be defined in a different manner? or the technical indicators wont work at all. Price action will seize to exist. The concepts of supply and demand wont work anymore? Support and resistance and pivots and all the good stuff wont work? I mean the list goes on...all those fancy things like harmonics and elliot wave (i dont use these
) but do u mean to say they wont work at all?And the answer is no...they will still work like before...some times with snipers precision and some times way off.
a)trump becoming president?
For my strategy....as i was testing...2016 (november) was the best month for my system in 2016. followed by december...Gold went up then went south. some great opportunities to make lots of money.Just because faces change doesn't mean their policy will change...same for all countries. anyway am not worried about it
b)agenda to abolish cash? if that happens great for me...am trading gold. So i think i will be fine(right?)
c)global events, politics, wars etc? what i have read is gold is safe haven, so until that status is attached with this commodity, i should be fine.
If u read my post twice(if u have time
) with an open mind , you will surely get what i wanted to say.1. as long as you are making money consistently, you are doing fine whatever your trading system is.
2. if something is working for you, don't put it in absolute terms like ...hey guys this is the only way your going to be successful, until and unless you follow my system you can not make money. That is not a positive attitude and i think its a disease too(dont remember the name).
3. if you are using a mechanical system, monitor your edge's performance from time to time. (i even highlighted it before but i think u just want to argue that's why u left it intentionally,i guess)
4. my edge is based on technical indicators and price action (pattern) but with rigid rules. (i may not qualify completely for using fixed mechanical system but its close)
That was my whole point, hope this time u read it to the last letter.(so i don't have to waste my time and this threads space)
And lastly i will give you a solid reason(even though its hypothetical) why my edge or may be some one's else system fail....
that pair(in my case its gold) which you trade will just vanish from this world, not even a single grain is present with anyone in this world, then surely i will not b able to trade my system on gold , may have to tweak it so i can trade some thing else.
Peace
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
- #87
- Jan 22, 2017 5:15am Jan 22, 2017 5:15am
if you believe in your strategy stick to it. {image}
That's what i posted at the very beginning of this thread....stick to something, soon you will find out if its working or is there some room for fine tuning
Jumping from system to system will get you no where.
But i think some guys here take others opinion so personally that they become sarcastic...
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
{quote} It's nice and useful to visit topics like that!!! I can spot the bad, sad or otherwise negative traders. Then i ignore them!!!!!Techboy, hanover and ExecutiveFx deserve a medal for trying to help BTW. Thanks.
First, watch this video, thats is from Davos 2017:
Inserted Video
Secondly ask yourself this question: who is better suited to assess uncertainty in 2017, you or Lagarde, Kuroda, Summers, Hammond, Moscovici, CEOs, fund managers ect?
I bet its them not you, at least of one good reason: because they setup political and economical policies, not you. Therefor we can assume with conviction, based on their independent, but well aligned opinions, that 2017 most likely will be quite uncertain, which most likely will mean volatile.
Below is monthly chart of gold vs usd for last 3 years. When times will become volatile, do you think the chart in 2017 is likely to look similar or not. My guess is that it will look quite different. There for a strategy honed for gold for last couple years has less chance to do well year ahead.
Does it make sense?
Mechanical systems don't work all the time... You have to wait for conditions to be right.
Look what markets are doing.. risk off/ risk on? whipsawing?
i been trading mostly asian and London session...
USA just a giant whipsaw for 1.5 month.. Hard to tell whats going on.. just whipping around..
Look what markets are doing.. risk off/ risk on? whipsawing?
i been trading mostly asian and London session...
USA just a giant whipsaw for 1.5 month.. Hard to tell whats going on.. just whipping around..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
- #90
- Jan 22, 2017 5:47am Jan 22, 2017 5:47am
- Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,299 Posts
Someone once told me that how you do one thing thats how you do everything.If you want to be disciplined you must start practicing it in every aspect of your life it has to be part of your character.
Eye Opening...
There are things we already know, but needs someone to say it out to have that "Aha Moment".
- #92
- Jan 22, 2017 6:00am Jan 22, 2017 6:00am
- Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,299 Posts
{quote} I did not want to waste my time, but... let me show you your ignorance (love that) and perhaps give some tips to others: First, watch this video, thats is from Davos 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cuCLb8iB7c Secondly ask yourself this question: who is better suited to assess uncertainty in 2017, you or Lagarde, Kuroda, Summers, Hammond, Moscovici, CEOs, fund managers ect? I bet its them not you, at least of one good reason: because they setup political and economical policies, not you. Therefor we can assume with conviction,...
Thanks for the point of view. One doubt i have is:
The elite group of CEO's, Lagarde, Kuroda, Summers et al while might say their assessment[in this case year 2017 will be uncertain], shouldn't we be taking their advice with a pinch of salt?
I mean, the best interest of the public may not be their priority[ they have their own agenda's], shouldn't one rely on their own self analysis? What is your take on this?
Note: I am just trying to understand the points raised in this thread's conversation. Please don't consider my inputs/questions as some sort of rebuttal to any post...
- #93
- Jan 22, 2017 6:00am Jan 22, 2017 6:00am
@kpclick...i think you are referring that to me and not (Not-KPMG)
i think u have some serious problem reading my posts or may be my english is really crap
(its not my 1st language)
Anyway i hope this is my last post in response to you because i have to do some more back testing
i love the fact that neither me nor anyone here on FF is in any position to affect the market(i hope m rite about others). And the policies are not developed by us but by some really sharp, hard crooked people. i totally accept this fact that i don't know whats going to happen next in the market but am also not worried about it. Because if something is beyond my control its useless to think about it but what is the risk involved surely that is well known, otherwise u can be in deep trouble.
Was not willing to but here i will share a chart if FF allows me to. See how a simple tool (may b useless to some people) can help you define market structure.
Peace...
i think u have some serious problem reading my posts or may be my english is really crap
(its not my 1st language)Anyway i hope this is my last post in response to you because i have to do some more back testing
i love the fact that neither me nor anyone here on FF is in any position to affect the market(i hope m rite about others
). And the policies are not developed by us but by some really sharp, hard crooked people. i totally accept this fact that i don't know whats going to happen next in the market but am also not worried about it. Because if something is beyond my control its useless to think about it but what is the risk involved surely that is well known, otherwise u can be in deep trouble.Was not willing to but here i will share a chart if FF allows me to. See how a simple tool (may b useless to some people) can help you define market structure.
Peace...
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
- #94
- Jan 22, 2017 6:10am Jan 22, 2017 6:10am
@aaven... means that if something no matter how much precious it once was...if it doesn't exist anymore, you can not trade it (i was referring to gold, which i trade).
But i know that is not a good reason. That's why i said hypothetically. Thats it
But i know that is not a good reason
. That's why i said hypothetically. Thats it
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)
{quote} Hi Kpclick, Thanks for the point of view. One doubt i have is: The elite group of CEO's, Lagarde, Kuroda, Summers et al while might say their assessment[in this case year 2017 will be uncertain], shouldn't we be taking their advice with a pinch of salt? Please don't consider my inputs/questions as some sort of rebuttal to any post...
I dont think all of them somehow conspire together on that answer. Mind you, it is not only big fishes, but quotes from a few CEOs, chairmen, journalists, a Nobel Prize winner. Look at number of crosses, there is quite a few of them.
Also this is a theme that has running for a quite while. Inquiry some economist and global politics orientated media and you will see, uncertainty is rising. This is just a video resonating overall feel.
I quoted this video, because I though it was presented in nice, condense, convincing manner
BTW, they dont advise you anything. They just mark on a scale 1-10 when they think uncertainty will be in 2017, that is all.
@aaven... means that if something no matter how much precious it once was...if it doesn't exist anymore, you can not trade it (i was referring to gold, which i trade). But i know that is not a good reason
Lets looks at some numbers:
http://www.mining.com/web/worlds-top-10-gold-deposits/
http://www.mining.com/the-worlds-top-10-gold-mines/
And if you want to be a bit more fancy, here is some (probably not so distant) future:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=358351
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/401227.stm
Does not look to me there will b any serious shortage of gold in future
- #97
- Jan 22, 2017 6:23am Jan 22, 2017 6:23am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
@kpclick...i think you are referring that to me and not (Not-KPMG)
" For past 5 years i am getting great results, including brokers cost...
I wish i could go back even more but i can only back test it to 2012 and some part of 2011.."
Then why are you showing chart starting from 1999?
You tested your strategy in the last couple years. And I pointed that that 2017 and beyond might be quite different market for gold than previous years, there for strategy fitted then might not work that well on the near future.
But well, you are sure your method, thats great then, good luck. I am just pointing to some risk, that is all.
@aaven... means that if something no matter how much precious it once was...if it doesn't exist anymore, you can not trade it
If there is not supply (because not more new resources available) than that item(s) should get more expensive, assuming there is still demand for them.
Let me give you an example: British Guiana One-Cent Magenta stamp. No produced anymore. According to you, this stamp cannot be traded. Yet it sold for 9 millions not long ago
Something more down to earth. If there is not more land in Manhattan to release then land and property prices should be rising (anything else being equal) , yet according to you all property trading in Manhattan should stand still forever
- #100
- Jan 22, 2017 6:48am Jan 22, 2017 6:48am
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,961 Posts
{quote} I dont get your idea .....
an example: British Guiana One-Cent Magenta stamp. No produced anymore. ....
all property trading in Manhattan should stand still forever
why so negative? pedantic? abstract? petty? off-topic???
come on...
Â
if you fail at forex....maybe that's the reason.... I'm writing a big final post I'll publis in 2 minutes...
Â
Â
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.