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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,881
  • Edited 2:54am Jan 21, 2017 2:08am | Edited 2:54am
Quoting Exnav
Dear Fti, Please accept my belated congratulations with your birthday. Good health and perfect mindset! Best regards, Exnav https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z-1fTlSDF0
Best as I can be.
Not late, not late at all.

Thanks and Blessings.

regards

Sorry all my friends i need to dreamland again for a while.

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  • #56,882
  • Jan 21, 2017 10:05am Jan 21, 2017 10:05am
Happy birthday!
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  • #56,883
  • Jan 21, 2017 10:25am Jan 21, 2017 10:25am
Hopefully upon many years to go.

have a very nice day!
  • #56,884
  • Jan 21, 2017 10:43am Jan 21, 2017 10:43am
Quoting ruben7222
Hopefully upon many years to go. have a very nice day!
Lol! Hope is kinda "strong" word but, lets hope.
have nice day!
  • #56,885
  • Jan 22, 2017 4:47am Jan 22, 2017 4:47am
Hello Friends,

Sunday might be an appropriate time for reflexion and lessons learnt. Since we are about TAF pillars, I would like to bring my points of confession. These are addressed to newbies mostly but all Traders are warmly invited to dicuss.

1. I have not read all the Thread yet. Currently being at page 2598 and passed all posts starting with June 2016, i.e., from 2740 and up to now. In process.
2. As a newbie have tried not more than 7X attack (X- Scout size) but up to 140X strategic level rescue.
3. Also statistically, successul attacks made about 20%, others at BE and two drawdowns. In overall, I am with no foreign cap since the very beginning.

Assumptions or conclusions:

A. No proper dancing reflex
B. No adequate Mindset
C. No suitable MM
D. No enough CAP (or small size pain threshold)

Let me dare to suggest that all the above ABCD are interrelated or interdependant. What could be any aim in trading for an ordinary retailer: to become financially independent and consistently profitable (FICF) for some, to protect CAP against inflation at least, to be successful, train your skills, abilities, enjoy the process, etc.
If we touch, e.g., the first one, financial independence FICF and you are not a clairvoyant, neither you are having trading CAP exceeding some 50K nor your pain threshold would be more than some 1.5K. What would that mean? Would you still be able to break that 95% losers number and indeed become a financially independent retail trader?
Why am I raising this question? Surely, because of my mindset at the stage. And that would be fair for ordinary retailers trying to internalize the FTI's pillars.
If you start with the smallest available size (because you do not have those 25 - 50 K), how long would the journey take, one - two, or 10 - 15 years to reach the desired FICF goal and would it be realistic at all? I am also asking the same to myself and, at least for me, could see probably two main scorpions biting:

1st Scorpion: in a contingency I am not able to flip nimbly (to recognize timely, being not yet in heavy rescue and change to new wind, change a bus or just take the small loss at once) but stay committed by trying rescue troops in danger for whatever price in a hope (Mindset and Terrain reading/ understanding)
2nd Scorpion: pain treshold, it is individual but how much one could let for bleeding being in a leveraged rescue

Having those scorpions or criteria I have simply calculated, and please accept my apologies, that for that ordinary retailer the FICF goal is almost impossible to reach. You must understand the Pillars correctly, apply and internalize them properly and for long enough time. What if you are not ready for the years long Ants Work, your pain treshold is a rather small amount as well as you are unable to respond timely and appropriately in contingencies.

I in fact recall such discussion in the Thread occurred some years ago. Now, when almost a decade passed since FTI launched the Thread, do we really have those successful ordinary retailer level traders (at FICF grade)? Or, we are just enjoing the process and staying at +-BE.

I will gratefully appreciate all feedbacks.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,886
  • Edited Jan 23, 2017 4:50am Jan 22, 2017 6:51am | Edited Jan 23, 2017 4:50am
Hi Exnav,

I am one of the dinosaurs of this thread (if I remember corretly, discovered it in December, 2007) and never quit following it. Though I have made serious mistakes before, I have too much respect for fti to dare talk about anything that is not in accordance with his teachings, even considering that recently he ended a post with this remark:
"ADD: By the way, no one need use what i showed, its also personal."
I don't know if what I am doing would be considered acceptable. The biggest contributor to it is fti (by far), but for many reasons (e.g. time constraints) I can't do exactly what is so generously taught by him. I believe in and I am testing the idea of doing patiently the ant's work, but trying to "make the ants grow" (testing the limits). I don't know if this is correct and if it should be discussed (or even mentioned) here. I apologize if my intervention was (again) inadequate. Trying to contribute, not wishing to disturb in any way.
  • #56,887
  • Jan 22, 2017 9:53am Jan 22, 2017 9:53am
Quoting Jairo
Hi Exnav, I am one of the dinosaurs of this thread (if I remember corretly, discovered it in December, 2007) and never quit following it. Though I have made serious mistakes before, I have too much respect for fti to dare talk about anything that is not in accordance with his teachings, even considering that recently he ended a post with this remark: "ADD: By the way, no one need use what i showed, its also personal." I don't know if what I am doing would be considered acceptable. The biggest contributor to it is fti (by far), but for many reasons...
Hello Jairo,

Thank you very much for your reply. As you can see, I have been keeping my integrity with the FTI's wisdom and I am of high esteem to his gracious sharing. On the other hand, IMHO, the main idea of FTI's generosity has been to help those small retailer traders seeking the truth how to survive and grow up. Or, I can be wrong and it is only for institutions and guys with really big money (more than 50 K). I am expressing only my personal view and consider to be honest to myself and other newbies. I much wish that I ought to be in line with the 3 Pillars: You, CAP, Market Knowledge. That is the core. As regards pecularities of MO/MM/Mindset, it will be individual challenge or journey. I am only with the TAF Thread but would like to exchange also those pecularities. One can see a lot of pros, the Ants Work and Emperor Monk. That must take time. The MO itself, supposedly, there have been traders coming in TAF, who are also in line with the pillars but their modus might be different fitting their individual style and restrictions.

From the very beginning of my joining the FF/TAF family, the main point has been how to survive in contingencies as I tried to describe briefly in my previous post, how to fight those scorpions. And why I am raising the issue, I think that the newbies wish to see that the 3 Pillars are indeed feasible for small retail traders even in a long 2 - 3 years ants working. You know, ants are bulding a big ants house - anthill for seasons and once, e.g., a mad man's behaviour will destroy the house in seconds.

I am personally, for the ants work, enjoying the trading process but still feeding up the big guys and brokers in the end.

Once again, much appreciate your feedback.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,888
  • Jan 22, 2017 8:44pm Jan 22, 2017 8:44pm
happy birthday chief....


hope u r having a great time.....

V
  • #56,889
  • Edited 4:30am Jan 23, 2017 12:22am | Edited 4:30am
Deleted by Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,890
  • Edited 4:30am Jan 23, 2017 2:47am | Edited 4:30am
Deleted by Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,891
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:23am Jan 23, 2017 4:23am
Hello FTI,

As far as I am concerned, I am sorry if you see I was complaining. I expressed what I thought would contribute.

Rebooting myself. No constructive discussion, I am withdrawing.

Thank you, Fti, hugely. Happy CNY!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,892
  • Edited 7:14am Jan 23, 2017 6:35am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting Exnav
Hello Friends, Sunday might be an appropriate time for reflexion and lessons learnt. Since we are about TAF pillars, I would like to bring my points of confession. These are addressed to newbies mostly but all Traders are warmly invited to dicuss. 1. I have not read all the Thread yet. Currently being at page 2598 and passed all posts starting with June 2016, i.e., from 2740 and up to now. In process. 2. As a newbie have tried not more than 7X attack (X- Scout size) but up to 140X strategic level rescue. 3. Also statistically, successul attacks...
hi, might i ask why are your attacks and rescue abit too lop sided to rescue? 7x attacks and 140x units in rescue. might you be trading against the trend and not sufficient with trend?

this might indicate that you might be putting yourself in unnecessary cap exposure to risk of ruin, and posing cap exposure too much and straining your cap alot, which is unhealthy for your book.

2 traders you might want to check out is dongsky and priceaction1, they are consistently profitable traders trading fti's style with their own personal touch and they document their trades in their journal here.
  • #56,893
  • Edited 2:00pm Jan 23, 2017 11:03am | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting Exnav
Hello FTI, As far as I am concerned, I am sorry if you see I was complaining. I expressed what I thought would contribute. Rebooting myself. No constructive discussion, I am withdrawing. Thank you, Fti, hugely. Happy CNY! Best regards, Exnav
HAHAHAHA,
eeeer sorry, wasn't about you.


regards
  • #56,894
  • Edited 1:29am Jan 24, 2017 12:54am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, might i ask why are your attacks and rescue abit too lop sided to rescue? 7x attacks and 140x units in rescue. might you be trading against the trend and not sufficient with trend? this might indicate that you might be putting yourself in unnecessary cap exposure to risk of ruin, and posing cap exposure too much and straining your cap alot, which is unhealthy for your book. 2 traders you might want to check out is dongsky and priceaction1, they are consistently profitable traders trading fti's style with their own personal touch and...
Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you so much for your friendly cooperation.

Look, I am now in rebooting process. Underline again, everything written by FTI is correct. One must also understand and apply it correctly.

All my problems are due to one reason: human being mistake. In all 4 drawdowns through my permanent live trading since January, 2016 have been triggerred by a simply stupid mistake at unexpectedly wrong time moment (technically: trapping PAs, trapping moves not letting to conduct effective rescues, 5 - 6 traps in a row in an opposite more than 150 pips overall movement/ trapping PA - standby and just 6-9 pips retracement). I was broking my own security protocol by pushing a button. And always it went wrong after very successful trading the same day before and previous day. What I would like to add to this, very personal issue: always exactly previous night or in the morning I have a strong gut feeling and indications, signs that something would go wrong that day. I am not a psychotherapist, just assume that my behaviour was subconciously affected by some subjective and objective factors, forming that inproper Mindset in the end.

You are right, I was overleveraged (almost 1:30 whole trade size at the Last Resort Rescue prior to Pain Limit) and overtrading, that I admitted myself in my preceding posts. I have already switched to my comfortable basic protocol: No Leverage and other corresponding MM adjustments. Also working on the point how to avoid my simply stupid mistakes. Maybe to make a break after VERY successful trading days.

Since I have nothing to contribute here, will move further in submerged mode.

Have a consistently profitable trading.

Best regards, Exnav

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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,895
  • Edited 6:42am Jan 24, 2017 4:59am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you so much for your friendly cooperation. Look, I am now in rebooting process. Underline again, everything written by FTI is correct. One must also understand and apply it correctly. All my problems are due to one reason: human being mistake. In all 4 drawdowns through my permanent live trading since January, 2016 have been triggerred by a simply stupid mistake at unexpectedly wrong time moment (technically: trapping PAs, trapping moves not letting to conduct effective rescues, 5 - 6 traps in a row in an opposite...
hi exnav, i guess you have bump into the problem of knowing when a position is beyond rescue or still salvagable. i don't have an answer for this now except that perhaps following a 3x average daily p&l loss threshold might be the solution as suggested in this thread earlier.
  • #56,896
  • Jan 24, 2017 5:24am Jan 24, 2017 5:24am
Hi fti & friends. i try to contribute little about my current progress, that self discovery thing was heavy process for me but, things are starting to balance bit.
my trading errors.. (could write book a bout those) i hesitate and not attack heavy enough in london opening session which PA i can usually read most reliably, usually would be best to trade aggressively then and close book for day.
I use 111 attack sequence for now, until i get things under control and achieve better consistency. Im not fan of rescuing but if i do its in narrow range lets say 5-15 pips. There is lots more but lets start whit these.

Thanks all for your continuous efforts to help and contributions
  • #56,897
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:32am Jan 25, 2017 9:32am
Hi ALL,

Just want to share something quickly, IT related.

If anyone is running window XP still, be warned that I am not able to find a web browser that is able to support running win XP now. I believe, the other computer of mine was running on SP3(service pack 3). SO, if you are on it, look for a replacement ASAP.
If you are on window 7, they are no longer updating it, and only do security patch till 2020 (IIRC, pls double check, dont quote me)

Just thought I drop a note, since our work is IT related and, trawling the net is, important for research etc.
I believe internet connection still works to the relative brokers, it is just that the coding for web browser no longer support most websites, I tried to mess around with the setting, and everything I could find while googling. NONE worked. Ended up getting a Win 10 DVD OEM. Bummer. Forced to update ! BAD aftertaste.

Regards
Ray


PS. If anyone knows why I cant use my mic on Windows 10, do kindly share with me. I tried everything as well. Its just a logitech basic headset, with headphones and mic, with 1 port.
Just cant seem to get it to work on window 10. VERY annoying. I tried everything from sound card update, to different ports. I was able to get it to work on my lappy, but no on desktop. No idea why !

PPS. On cable, I saw some guys mentioning large stops @ 1.2615 region, 15pip away at print.

Take care all, Good fortune.
Over and Out.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,898
  • Jan 25, 2017 7:44pm Jan 25, 2017 7:44pm
Quoting RelaxRay
Hi ALL, Just want to share something quickly, IT related. If anyone is running window XP still, be warned that I am not able to find a web browser that is able to support running win XP now. I believe, the other computer of mine was running on SP3(service pack 3). SO, if you are on it, look for a replacement ASAP. If you are on window 7, they are no longer updating it, and only do security patch till 2020 (IIRC, pls double check, dont quote me) Just thought I drop a note, since our work is IT related and, trawling the net is, important for research...
hi ray, i encountered a similar problem with my sound card too, i bought a new laptop for gaming and entertainment recently and it is a 2016 model too, and it came by default with windows 10, it was working fine, but after an update, it screwed my scound card up and the sound was really sketchy and noisy, i guess windows 10 still is not as polished, but rolling back the update seems to work and solve the problem, so you might want to try that if you have the option for doing that.
  • #56,899
  • Edited 3:14am Jan 26, 2017 1:59am | Edited 3:14am
for those who understand japanese, could this be the original manual of munehisa homma?
http://edb.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/exhib...t227s0001.html

Anyway, from reading Steve nison's candle stick book, it alludes to that the read is totally different from what his book writes, what he wrote in the book is very static and basic, very elementary. But I got lucky I was surfing YouTube 1 day, and happen to see a conference he was giving to a group of his customers, it was quite discretionary and the actual read was terrain based the individual stick read was not used much. The key was terrain, the terrain provided contextual read to the pattern.

Also, gann was not using candle stick charts, but the feel I get is, both mo in terms of read is similar to munehisa homma, which implies the read is skill and experience based and discretionary.

Hope it helps newer traders learning to feel the markets.

Though it's abit hard for me to find the YouTube video, as it was about 2 years ago I found it, and it's been removed. I tried to find it but could not find it.
  • #56,900
  • Edited 2:12am Jan 26, 2017 2:00am | Edited 2:12am
nice
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regards
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