Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

DAX Elliott Wave Forecast 1.3.2017

DAX has continued to make a new high at the start of the 2017. The Index is currently showing a 5 swing sequence from 12/12 low, which favors more upside. The rally from 12/12 low (11141) is now unfolding as a double three where wave (w) ended at 11483 and wave (x) ended at 11403. Internal structure of wave (y) is unfolding as a double three structure where wave w ended at 11622.5 and wave x pullback is in progress to correct from 12/30 low (11403) before DAX resumes rally higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear once wave x pullback is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 12/30 low (11403.8) stays intact.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Russell 2000 ($RUT) incomplete bullish sequences calling the rally

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the past Elliott Wave charts of Russell 2000 ( $RUT). We’re going to explain the structure and see how we guided our members through this instrument.
The chart below is $RUT daily update from 10.23.2016. Price structure is showing incomplete bullish sequences in the cycle from the 943.63 low. Fifth swing ended at 1261.11 high as a expanded flat. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the index’s doing 6th swing as irregular Flat as well. Once it completes, another swing up should ideally follow to complete 7 swings at 1300.71-1351.31 area. As our members already know, market moves in 3-7-11 swings sequences and this kind of structures in most cases give us the clear path.

Now let’s take a look at the short term structures.
Russell 2000 h4 update, 11.2.2016
The price has reached the 50-61.8 fibs retracement zone at 1173.58-1152.81 where the pull back is expected to complete. The price structure of the pull back looks like Elliott Wave expanded flat. These kind of irregular patterns can be tricky to trade as sometimes they keep extending in wave C. However we suggested our members to avoid selling the index and keep going with the trend: buying the dips in 3-7-11 swings. We favored the long side against the pivot at 1085.179 low. Read the full article

DAX Elliott Wave Forecast 1.4.2017

The rally in DAX from 11/9/2016 is unfolding as a triple three where wave (W) ended at 10798, wave (X) ended at 10400, wave (Y) ended at 11487, and second wave (X) ended at 11403. With a break above wave (Y) at 11487, DAX is showing 9 swings up from 11/9/2016 low, which favors more upside. Up from 11403, wave ((w)) ended at 11649.5, and wave ((x)) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 12/30 (11403) low before Index turns higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to come once wave ((x)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11403.8 stays intact.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Forecast 1.10.2017

GBPUSD is showing a 5 swing bearish sequence from 12/6 peak (1.277) which favors more downside. The decline from 12/6 peak is unfolding as a double three where wave (W) ended at 1.2198 and wave (X) ended at 1.2432. GBPUSD has since broken below wave (W) at 1.2198 which suggests that the next leg lower has already started. Near term focus is on 1.2025 – 1.2072 area to complete wave W and end cycle from 1/5 high, then pair should bounce in wave X to correct cycle from 1/5 high (1.2432) before pair resumes lower again towards 1.172 – 1.185 area. We don’t like buying any proposed bounce and expect sellers to appear again to push the pair to another low once wave X bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Forecast 1.11.2017

GBPUSD is showing a 5 swing bearish sequence from 12/6 peak (1.277) which favors more downside. The decline from 12/6 peak is unfolding as a double three where wave (W) ended at 1.2198 and wave (X) ended at 1.2432. GBPUSD has since broken below wave (W) at 1.2198 which suggests that the next leg Wave (Y) has already started to the downside. Internal of wave (Y) is unfolding as a double three where wave W ended at 1.2104 and wave X bounce is in progress to correct cycle from 1/5 high (1.2432) before pair resumes lower again towards 1.172 – 1.185 area. We don’t like buying the bounce and expect sellers to appear to push the pair to another low once wave X bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The first 3 swing inflection area of ((w))-((x))-((y)) is 1.223 – 1.225 for potential area where sellers can appear to push the pair to the downside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Aftermath of December US Non-farm payrolls
January 10, 2017 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
Last Friday, US added 156,000 job numbers in December Non-farm payrolls followed by a 204,000 rise in November previously, which was bigger than estimated. Whereas the Median forecast for December Non-farm payrolls was estimated at 175,000 jobs. The jobless rate marked up to 4.7 percent as the labor force grew. And wages rose 2.9 percent from December 2015, thus helped US Dollar & Indices to rally, significantly pushing SPX & NASDAQ to new all-time highs. Average hourly earnings advanced by 2.9 percent over the 12 months ended in December, the most since June 2009, following a 2.5 percent boost the prior month. Compared with November, worker pay increased 0.4 percent. As the Fed looks for signs of faster inflation, wages are showing their fastest gains since the last recession ended.
The December results were helped by more hiring in health care and social assistance, whose gain of 63,300 workers was the most since October 2015. Factories added employees, along with leisure and hospitality businesses. Also the revisions to prior reports added a total of 19,000 jobs to payrolls in the previous two months.The latest payroll figures brought the advance to 2016 to 2.16 million, after a gain of about 2.7 million in 2015. The ramp up over 2 million is the longest since 1999, when Bill Clinton was president.
At the Fed’s December meeting in which the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, officials noted that the labor market had improved significantly over the past year and slack had declined. The majority of participants considered that the cumulative progress was to have brought the labor market conditions to those that are compatible with the Committee’s maximum employment objective. The shortage of workers may become more frequent in the next year, which means that employers may have to give higher wage increases, even when hiring cools down. That would emphasize consumer spending and underline the argument that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates several times more in 2017, as policymakers consider the situation to be almost full employment. Moreover, Fed’s next meeting is schedule to be on February 1st, where looking at “CMC Fed Watch Tool” market is expecting a 97% chance of rate hike in between 50-75 basis points.
Below is fewer charts, which we presented to our clients ahead of Non-farm payrolls. Regardless of what could be the Fundamental outcome will be, our blue boxes kept our member’s to trade on the right side of the Market before the move begins.
$GBPUSD 5th January, 1 hour Midday updated chart Read the full article here

Under Armour (Sportswear) Ready for Glory Days

SportsWear Market Analysis
When people talk about Sportswear , you will always hear either Nike or Adidas as they are the most used brands in the world despite other known names like Puma , Asics or Converse . Nike established it self as the world’s leading innovator in sports related footwear, clothing, tools and accessories beating Adidas which is the largest sportswear manufacturer in the European Continent . However in 2014 , Under Armour ( American sports clothing and accessories company ) managed to surpassed Adidas by U.S. sales to claim the No. 2 spot in the sportswear market behind Nike which put a lot of pressure on Adidas that finally managed last year to reclaim it’s second spot in U.S with impressive gains in sales and operating profit .
The leader Nike (NYSE: NKE) and the new challenger Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) had a rough 2016, at least in terms of share price performance compared to Adidas (NASDAQOTH:ADDYY) which managed to close at +64.5% . Nike down -16% is the Dow’s worst performer for last year and Under Armour closing at -30% was its worst 1 year decline so what can we expect from these companies for the coming year 2017 and which one is better for investing ? Read the full article here

EURJPY Elliott Wave (4) nearing completion

EURJPY has been in a sideways consolidation for the last few weeks and today it broke lower from the consolidation. Many might view it as start of a sustained decline but looking at the choppy nature of the decline from blue (3) peak, we are viewing it as a wave (4) blue pull back of an incomplete 5 wave Elliott wave cycle up from 6/24/2016 low. Wave (4) could unfold as a simple 3 wave pull back, double three, triple three, zig-zag, FLAT or a triangle. In this wave count, wave (4) has taken the form of a double three, WXY structure and expected to complete in the highlighted blue box area between 121.25 – 120.63 and in extension 119.63. Once wave (4) blue is complete, expect the pair to turn up and make a new high in wave (5). Minimum target for wave (5) would be inverse 1.236 Fibonacci extension of wave (4). Assuming wave (4) completes at 121.25, then the minimum target for wave (5) would be 124.81. If inverse 1.236 Fibonacci extension of wave (4) dip is exceeded, then we would look at one of the other two methods described here.
EURJPY 8 Hour chart

Another possibility is that the highlighted blue box area (121.25 – 119.63) would only complete first leg of wave (4) pull back i.e. wave W and result in a 3 wave bounce to correct the decline from (3) peak and then make another 3 wave extension lower to complete a larger WXY structure in wave (4). We don’t like selling the pair and expect buyers to appear in 121.25 – 119.63 area for new highs or a 3 wave bounce at least. Even if the pair doesn’t make a new high, expected minimum 3 wave bounce from above mentioned area would allow the buyers to get into a risk free position.
In order to access full Elliott Wave Analysis of EURJPY all time frames and also get access to other Yen pairs, US Dollar pairs, Commodities and Indexes, try EWF Free for 14 days.

EURCAD Technical Analysis January 11 2017

EURCAD trend on the weekly and daily chart is bearish so traders should continue to look for selling opportunities and expect the pair to continue lower until a clear trend change shows that the down cycle is over. We at Elliott Wave Forecast always advise our members to always trade with the trend and not against it. Below we will show scenarios that follow this practice and possible scenarios where traders can act on and watch for selling opportunities.
EURCAD 4 Hour showing clear resistance and support levels. Break below lower channel trend line can possibly signal that down trend will continue and a clear break below support level will confirm that the pair will push lower.

Below is a chart where momentum price action can just push EURCAD lower and make newer lows. For this scenario traders need to watch price action break-outs of certain levels to Sell/Short EURCAD and add momentum to push the price lower. To see a better explanation of this strategy click here >Trading Momentum Price Action Break-outs
EURCAD 1 Hour Price Action Break-out
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read the full article here

Elliott Wave Analysis: DAX

In this technical blog, lets take a look at the $DAX instrument Elliott wave forecast we had since the beginning of 2017. Below is the $DAX 1/07/2017, 4 hr weekend updated chart suggesting the rally in DAX from 11/9/2016 is unfolding as a Elliott wave triple three structure (also known as 11 swing sequence), where wave (W) ended at 10798, wave (X) ended at 10400, wave (Y) ended at 11487, and second wave (X) ended at 11404.3. With a break above previous wave (Y) at 11487, instrument is showing 9 swings up from 11/9/2016 low, which is incomplete Elliott wave bullish structure in the Index & needed more upside as far trading above 11404 low. Thus our strategy was to buy any dips in sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot from 11404 low stays intact for resumption of the trend higher or for 3 swing bounce at least to allow our members to create a risk free position.
DAX 4 Hour, 7 January 2017

DAX 1 Hour, 9 January 2017
Index made the 3 swing pullback within ((x)) to correct the cycle from 11404 low & our strategy was to buy the index when price reaches the 50-618% fib ret area (11525-11496). read the full article here

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Forecast 1.13.2017

GBPUSD is showing a 5 swing bearish sequence from 12/6 peak (1.277) which favors more downside. The decline from 12/6 peak is unfolding as a double three where wave (W) ended at 1.2198 and wave (X) ended at 1.2432. GBPUSD has since broken below wave (W) at 1.2198 which suggests that the next leg Wave (Y) has already started to the downside. Internal of wave (Y) is unfolding as a double three where wave W ended at 1.2037 and wave X bounce is proposed complete at 1.2317. Near term, while bounces stay below there, expect pair to resume lower towards 1.172 – 1.185 area. If pair breaks above 1.2317, then pair should open extension higher as a double three from 1/11 low and can reach 1.24 area before at least a 3 waves pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

EURCAD Elliott Wave Plus Bearish Patterns

EURCAD Technical Analysis January 12/2017
EURCAD 1 hour Elliott Wave count can be calling for more downside and also there are two possible bearish patterns to match the bearish Elliott Wave count. As long as the pair stays below 1.4055 we can expect the pair to continue lower. Both the Elliott Wave and bearish patterns invalidate at 1.4055 and if the pair breaks above this invalidation level we can expect the pair to correct higher. As for now we remain bearish as long as the invalidation level holds.
EURCAD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Count


EURCAD 1 Hour Two Bearish Patterns
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If EURCAD moves lower we expect the pair to possibly continue lower towards the 1.3680 level minimum where bulls/buyers might perhaps be waiting to push the pair higher. Below, the EURCAD weekly chart shows a possible bullish pattern showing why and perhaps bulls will be waiting at the 1.3680 area. If the pair reaches this level bears/sellers should take profit.
EURCAD Weekly Chart Possible Scenario
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Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter > @AidanFX if you have any questions
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
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GBPUSD Elliott Wave Forecast 1.17.2017

GBPUSD is showing a 5 swing bearish sequence from 12/6 peak (1.277) which favors more downside. The decline from 12/6 peak is unfolding as a double three where wave W ended at 1.2198 and wave X ended at 1.2432. Internal of wave (Y) is unfolding as a double three where wave ((w)) ended at 1.2037 and wave ((x)) bounce is proposed complete at 1.2317. The pair has since broken below 1.2317, suggesting that the next leg lower in wave ((y)) of (Y) has already started. Near term, pair is correcting the cycle from 1/12 high before turning lower again. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce and expect sellers to appear once wave (x) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing, as far as pivot at 1.2318 stays intact.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

NZDUSD - Possible 5 wave move in making

NZDUSD move up from 12/23 low is extending and it looks like the move up from 12/23 low is unfolding as an Elliott wave diagonal when pair is still in wave 3. Rally to 0.7028 is labelled as wave 1 and dip to 0.6945 is labelled as a FLAT wave 2. Up from there wave 3 remains in progress towards 0.7266 - 1.7315. Once wave 3 is complete, expect the pair to pull back in wave 4 to correct the cycle from red 2 low and turn higher in wave 5 to complete a diagonal move up from 12/23 (0.6857) low. Proposed wave 4 pull back should unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings and ideally complete between 23.6 - 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. Afterwards, pair is expected to turn higher again one more leg to complete wave 5. If the pivot at proposed red 2 (0.6945) low gives up, that would suggest cycle from 0.6857 low ended as an WXY (double three)

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart



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Top Financial Companies Performance

Financial Companies Review
In our previous article we made an Overview of the financial sector and we mentioned that the overall performance was below average as most of the Top Financial Companies stocks were in the negative territory since the start of 2016. The acceleration to the upside came during the 4th quarter of the year after the US Election which was as always a driving event as the lows was already in place few days before it . Our Dark horse Comerica ( CMA ) continued its outstanding performance closing the year for a record of +65% and the stock is approaching a break above 1998 peak which will make the financial services company even more bullish in the coming years .

The so called Trump Rally helped the stock market to make its best rally since the 2008 crisis and the financial sector was the one leading the move with its major companies gains hovering around +20% and +40% since last November lifting confidence around Investors which is always a good sign for the Economy . So if you missed this strong move and still seeking a way to join the bulls dont worry too much as there will always be an opportunity around the corner and you only need to wait for the right setup to take it .

You may have noticed that Berkshire Hathaway ( Top Holder of XLF with 10.74% ) was left out of the recent charts even it also finished the year with a double digit positive number but the recent rally was a bit slower than the rest . Warren Buffet claimed that purchasing its multinational conglomerate holding company 45 years ago was the biggest investment mistake he had ever made , as if he had invested the money directly in insurance businesses instead of buying out Berkshire Hathaway , those investments would have paid off more billions !
The company is one of the fewest Financial Companies that keeps making new all time highs ( like JP Morgan JPM ) , unlike others still recovering from the financial crisis which tell us a lot about how strong the bullish trend is . So lets jump to the Elliott wave technical chart to understand the current situation in the financial sector and if Berkshire Hathaway could still represent an investment opportunity .
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLF ) Monthly Charts
XLF is still trading below 2007 peak but with the recent brake above 2015 highs it opened an extension to the upside which means that the instrument is now showing 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence calling for a move to equal legs area at 31.02 34.80 which clearly take it for new all time highs . As usual , the move higher wont be in a straight line so XLF should be ending the cycle from 2015 & 2016 lows around 24.91 27.24 area before a pullback against 15.04 can be seen , that corrective move should represent a long term buying opportunity in various financial companies that belong to XLF .
Read the full article here

AUDUSD – Possible 5 waves move in making

AUDUSD move up from 12/23 low is extending and as pair keeps extending higher with shallow pull backs, it looks like the move up from 12/23 low is unfolding as an Elliott wave impulse when pair is still in wave 3.

Rally to 0.735 is labelled as wave 1 and dip to 0.7283 is labelled as wave 2. Up from there wave 3 remains in progress towards 0.76 – 1.7629. Once wave 3 is complete, expect the pair to pull back in wave 4 to correct the cycle from red 2 low and turn higher in wave 5 to complete a 5 wave move up from 12/23 (0.7155) low. Proposed wave 4 pull back should unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings and would typically complete between 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. Wave 4 pull back should not retrace more than 50% of wave 3 as per the new guidelines that we have introduced ourselves and also not overlap with wave 1.

This means proposed wave 4 pull back, when seen, should stay above 0.735 for the idea of impulse to remain valid. If wave 4 pull back retraces more than 50% of wave 3 or gets below 0.743, that would mean move up from 0.7155 low is no longer an impulse but could still be wave 4 of a diagonal higher. If the pivot at proposed red 2 (0.7283) low gives up, that would suggest cycle from 0.7155 low ended as an ABC (zig-zag)

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart



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GBPJPY shows 5 waves of the lows, more upside after 3 waves back

GBPJPY rally from 1/16 low (136.42) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse which is expected to complete wave ((i)) of a Minute degree, as shown below in the 1 hour Asia chart from 1/19/2017. As far as momentum divergence is intact between wave (iii) and wave (v) of Minuette degree, the impulse structure remains valid.
Elliott wave theory suggest that after a 5 waves move (unless 5 waves complete wave C of a FLAT structure), there should be a 3 waves pull back and another 5 waves move in the same direction higher. So after finishing the first leg higher in wave ((i)), pair should see a 3 swing pullback soon today before another extension higher happens in 5 waves as far as pivot at 1/16 low (136.42) remains intact.
$GBPJPY 1 hour chart



Elliott Wave Degree Reference
http://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-c...Wave-Cycle.png
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AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 1.20.2017

AUDUSD move up from 12/23 low is extending and as pair keeps extending higher with shallow pull backs, it looks like the move up from 12/23 low is unfolding as an Elliott wave impulse and although the cycle is mature, more upside within wave 5 is expected before pair ends the cycle from 12/23 low.

Rally to 0.735 is labelled as wave 1 and dip to 0.7283 is labelled as wave 2. Up from there wave 3 ended at 0.7568 and wave 4 pullback is proposed complete at 0.748. While pullbacks stay above there, expect AUDUSD to resume higher within wave 5 towards as high as 0.7605 – 0.7681 area to complete 5 waves move up from 12/23 (0.7155) low. Afterwards, expect a larger degree correction in wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 12/23 low. A break below 0.748 could be an indication that the cycle from 12/23 low has ended and pair could see larger degree correction lower.



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AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Ending Wave 5 Impulse

AUDUSD move up from 12/23 low is extending and as pair keeps extending higher with shallow pull backs, it looks like the move up from 12/23 low is unfolding as an Elliott wave impulse and although the cycle is mature, more upside within wave 5 is expected as a diagonal before pair ends the cycle from 12/23 low. Rally to 0.735 is labelled as Minor wave 1 and dip to 0.7283 is labelled as Minor wave 2. Up from there Minor wave 3 ended at 0.7568 and Minor wave 4 pullback is proposed complete at 0.7488. Pair is currently in Minor wave 5 as an ending diagonal with subdivision of 3-3-3-3-3, where Minuette wave ((iii)) is expected to end soon and a Minuette wave ((iv)) pullback should be seen in 3, 7, or 11 swing before one more push higher in Minuette wave ((v)). While pullbacks stay above 0.7488, expect AUDUSD to resume higher within Minor wave 5 towards as high as 0.762 – 0.768 area to complete 5 waves move up from 12/23 (0.7155) low. Afterwards, expect a larger degree correction in Intermediate wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 12/23 low. A break below 0.7488 could be an indication that the cycle from 12/23 low has ended and pair could see larger degree correction lower.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart



At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Elliott Wave Cycle

EURAUD: More downside after a bounce

EURAUD has been in a steady downtrend since forming a peak on 8/24/2015 (1.6585). Although, pair is very close to 100% Fibonacci extension down from 8/24/2015 peak, Elliott wave sequence to the downside is incomplete and is calling for rallies to prove corrective and result in more downside in the pair. Last week, pair broke below 11/10/2016 low and dropped to the lowest level since May 2015 before it started bouncing. With the break of 11/10/2016 (1.4070) low, pair is showing 5 swings down from 9/15/2016 peak, 5 swings is an incomplete sequence and make the pair bearish against 12/30/2016 (1.4722) peak.
EURAUD 720 minute Chart
EURUSD decline from black ((X)) peak can be viewed as a zig-zag and completed wave (W) at 1.4126 (10/26/2016). After that, pair did a running FLAT wave (X) to 1.4722 which completed on 12/30/2016. Within this running FLAT wave (X), 3 waves rally to 1.4883 was wave A, 3 waves drop to 1.4070 was wave B and 5 swing move to 1.4722 was wave C as a diagonal. Since then pair has already made a new low below the red B which makes it 5 swings down from 9/15/2016 peak. This confirms the view that wave (X) completed at 1.4722 and wave (Y) lower is now in progress. The bounce last week came from the blue box between 1.4123 – 1.3981 which is nothing more than 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X) and is the typical area for 1st leg of wave (Y) to complete.


EURAUD 240 minute chart
As pair is showing 5 swings down from black ((X)) peak, we expect wave X bounce to hold below blue (X) peak for continuation lower towards 1.3752 – 1.3523 area which is 100 – 123.6 Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X). We don’t like buying the area and expect wave X to find sellers in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at blue (X) peak at 1.4722 high remains intact. Only a break of the down trend line and more importantly the pivot at blue (X) peak @ 1.4722 would negate the next extension lower.
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At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.