How long did it take you come up with your method? | Forex Factory

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How long did it take you come up with your method?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 4, 2006 7:28pm Sep 4, 2006 7:28pm
I'm mainly asking this of the people of who have developed a system - and probably one they are not sharing - that has worked well for them, preferably over considerable amount of time. Basically a well understood, consistent winner that has become their "bread and butter".

I'm new to Forex and have been spending countless hours going through charts, finding patterns, using different indicators in a seemingly infinite amount of combinations, just trying to figure out which way to go. I've had moments when I think I have something (I actually once had something I was convinced seemed right 90% of the time when I finally went to sleep only to wake up and not be able to find what I'd seen the night before) only to later decide it wasn't going to be able to stand on it's own. By the time I've added a few elements trying to define rules for the strategy to increase consistency, the original method may have been lost or changed, leaving me with the question of trying to decide what's valid and what's not.

I don't think this is something that you just research for a few months and come up with, but I can't help but feel a little overwhelmed at times wondering 'what's next'. I worry that I may have even found a workable plan only to have given up on it too soon. I know a lot of the indicators aren't necessarily valid and probably a waste of most people's time, but they are useful to me at this stage in giving me different persepectives in what to search for.

I worry that I may be seeing patterns that don't exist and wasting a lot of my time on pursuits that could be potentially diverting my attention from realizing profit right now. If I were able to at least support myself through trading, then it's easy to devote yourself to developing or honing your system.

Basically I just want to know how long it took you have been able to support yourself through your method to come up with it. Did you use a well planned, written approach as determining your exact method as opposed to what I've been doing - basically just going with whatever idea happens to pop in my head when my attention has wained from what it is I was observing and only taking minimal notes? I don't want this to sound like those threads asking "How long will it take me to make a million bucks in Forex." Everyone is different and this endeavour has so many variables that no one could answer that. What I'm trying to figure out is a general time frame it took for those who consider themselves successful and what approach they took, or would reccomend, to find their way.
  • #2
  • Sep 4, 2006 7:41pm Sep 4, 2006 7:41pm
Read Turveyd's method, that holds up to me and you might be green enough to accept it, it's different to anything else for some reason.


The Concept was stolen from a stock mentor, but it's been 2 year on and off ( Off alot ) to get it to the level it's at at the moment.

But at the same time, I don't think there is a magic do it all simple system, time spent infront of the screen is key, it's the ownly real way to learn.

Remember go with the Trend, and do not try to be a bottom / top picker, if you can master these 2 simple things you'll be fine.

Wait for the market to come to you aswell, don't force trades for the sake of it.

If in doubt, when in a position, just Exit and walk away!!


And I hope you like a challenge, cause trading is pretty much the ultimate one there is.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #3
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:33pm Sep 4, 2006 8:33pm
Quoting Hagbard Celine
...basically just going with whatever idea happens to pop in my head when my attention has wained from what it is I was observing and only taking minimal notes?
Wrong. Make copius notes but before you do, formalize a method of grouping and organizing them for your later referral. This may mean saving the same {digital} notes in numerous folders for cross reference.

Have a Folder for "XL Files". Some of those you may also want to have under "Global Events". Don't forget to also have a folder for FF Member Quotes. And just imagine how many subfolders there will be in there.

PDFs the list goes on and on but the point is, If it interests You, Make a note of it because when you do, you have started to build Your System.

Go through them once a month to re-pique your original interest and before you know it, you will be on your way to correlating it all together.

How long will it take before you can quit your day job? "?"

Took me 15 years from when I placed my first stock trade back in '79. But my objective back then was not to replace my day job.


Good Luck and hang in there.
  • #4
  • Sep 4, 2006 9:49pm Sep 4, 2006 9:49pm
Quoting Bemac
Wrong. Make copius notes but before you do, formalize a method of grouping and organizing them for your later referral. This may mean saving the same {digital} notes in numerous folders for cross reference.

Have a Folder for "XL Files". Some of those you may also want to have under "Global Events". Don't forget to also have a folder for FF Member Quotes. And just imagine how many subfolders there will be in there.

PDFs the list goes on and on but the point is, If it interests You, Make a note of it because when you do, you have started to build Your System.

Go through them once a month to re-pique your original interest and before you know it, you will be on your way to correlating it all together.

How long will it take before you can quit your day job? "?"

Took me 15 years from when I placed my first stock trade back in '79. But my objective back then was not to replace my day job.


Good Luck and hang in there.
Thank you!

That's exactly the kind of response I'd hoped to hear. I think one quickly realizes this isn't something they can just haphazardly tackle. Devising a methodical, planned approach to determine your system seems necessary, and nearly as daunting devising the system itself. I guess they are really one in the same though, an integral first step.

Can anyone else relate their approach to determining their system? Maybe how they went about organizing and planning their testing?
  • #5
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:03pm Sep 4, 2006 10:03pm
Quoting Hagbard Celine
I'm mainly asking this of the people of who have developed a system - and probably one they are not sharing - that has worked well for them, preferably over considerable amount of time. Basically a well understood, consistent winner that has become their "bread and butter".

I'm new to Forex and have been spending countless hours going through charts, finding patterns, using different indicators in a seemingly infinite amount of combinations, just trying to figure out which way to go. I've had moments when I think I have something (I actually once had something I was convinced seemed right 90% of the time when I finally went to sleep only to wake up and not be able to find what I'd seen the night before) only to later decide it wasn't going to be able to stand on it's own. By the time I've added a few elements trying to define rules for the strategy to increase consistency, the original method may have been lost or changed, leaving me with the question of trying to decide what's valid and what's not.

I don't think this is something that you just research for a few months and come up with, but I can't help but feel a little overwhelmed at times wondering 'what's next'. I worry that I may have even found a workable plan only to have given up on it too soon. I know a lot of the indicators aren't necessarily valid and probably a waste of most people's time, but they are useful to me at this stage in giving me different persepectives in what to search for.

I worry that I may be seeing patterns that don't exist and wasting a lot of my time on pursuits that could be potentially diverting my attention from realizing profit right now. If I were able to at least support myself through trading, then it's easy to devote yourself to developing or honing your system.

Basically I just want to know how long it took you have been able to support yourself through your method to come up with it. Did you use a well planned, written approach as determining your exact method as opposed to what I've been doing - basically just going with whatever idea happens to pop in my head when my attention has wained from what it is I was observing and only taking minimal notes? I don't want this to sound like those threads asking "How long will it take me to make a million bucks in Forex." Everyone is different and this endeavour has so many variables that no one could answer that. What I'm trying to figure out is a general time frame it took for those who consider themselves successful and what approach they took, or would reccomend, to find their way.

Too be frank, I worked on my system for a long time Lol. I spent massive amount of time back testing it over and over tweaking it, well in time frames it took years. But when you work on something this long, And you test it a million times to see that it is working, You no longer have emotions, and full Confidance in your system. You spent time working on it testing it and then when its ready after long while. You developed your self more in the proccess then you did your System learning Patients hard work and time to do million tests without loseing your mind.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #6
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:17pm Sep 4, 2006 10:17pm
Quoting Turveyd
Read Turveyd's method, that holds up to me and you might be green enough to accept it, it's different to anything else for some reason.


The Concept was stolen from a stock mentor, but it's been 2 year on and off ( Off alot ) to get it to the level it's at at the moment.

But at the same time, I don't think there is a magic do it all simple system, time spent infront of the screen is key, it's the ownly real way to learn.

Remember go with the Trend, and do not try to be a bottom / top picker, if you can master these 2 simple things you'll be fine.

Wait for the market to come to you aswell, don't force trades for the sake of it.

If in doubt, when in a position, just Exit and walk away!!


And I hope you like a challenge, cause trading is pretty much the ultimate one there is.
The challenge is one of the reasons I'm so attracted to trading.

I see that you got the core of your method from someone else, and then developed on it from there (if I understand you correctly). Did you use a methodical approach during development and if so, how you went about it?

I appreciate the advice as well. I know you said there is no "magic do it all simple system" and I would tend to agree that there is no magic to it, but the other things you said - somethings I've heard reiterated by successful traders over and over - do seem simple. I have seen or heard it said many times to not try and overcomplicate things.

That goes back to what I was trying to express earlier. I already know a fair amount about indicators, chart patterns, and other's systems. I've read 4-5 books, taken a course from OTA for trading (it's focus was on equities, but has many parallels to Forex), have spent several months demoing, and a considerable chunk of my life scouring the internet reading all related material.

I really think that I probably have enough knowledge to lock myself in isolation with only the tools I know of and eventually devise a system. The problem is I keep on reading, and reading and reading, and reviewing others methods, and researching esoteric indicators. I guess maybe I'm afraid I am, or will, miss something vital. Doubt keeps rearing it's head because I lack the confidence to develop my approach using only what I've garnered so far.

The more I read and learn, the more infinite the possibilities seem. It's causing me to doubt and lose confidence, which makes me think I need to learn more before I can do this, so I read some more and perpetuate this cycle.

I think I just answered my own question here. Typing it out made it a little more understandable.

I guess I should just use what I know and try to go from there. If I can't come up with a method, then go back to researching the pieces I need to build it.

Does this seem like the right conclusion?
  • #7
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:32pm Sep 4, 2006 10:32pm
Quoting Hagbard Celine

I really think that I probably have enough knowledge to lock myself in isolation with only the tools I know of and eventually devise a system. The problem is I keep on reading, and reading and reading, and reviewing others methods, and researching esoteric indicators. I guess maybe I'm afraid I am, or will, miss something vital. Doubt keeps rearing it's head because I lack the confidence to develop my approach using only what I've garnered so far.

The more I read and learn, the more infinite the possibilities seem. It's causing me to doubt and lose confidence, which makes me think I need to learn more before I can do this, so I read some more and perpetuate this cycle.

I think I just answered my own question here. Typing it out made it a little more understandable.

Does this seem like the right conclusion?
I think you did too.
Reading and reviewing is Not A Problem. Or wont be after you get your foundation down. If it fits, incorporate it. Even if just in discretion.

I still Read and review other's methods and try to keep an open mind to their thought process. Doing it right here right now as a matter of fact.
  • #8
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:37pm Sep 4, 2006 10:37pm
It's a valid question, and one you won't get a standard answer to as it is such an individual process. I have two systems, one is well documented and traded by people here at FF, the other I have not revealed to the public and continues to develop as time goes by.

The process you are going through sounds very familiar, but rather harp on about how you must keep at it, patience .. etc. etc. .. ill pick you up one quote:

Quote
I worry that I may be seeing patterns that don't exist and wasting a lot of my time on pursuits that could be potentially diverting my attention from realizing profit right now. If I were able to at least support myself through trading, then it's easy to devote yourself to developing or honing your system.

It can be a catch 22 in a way, finding the time and resources to research properly, while still needed to turn some money over to survive. Truth be known, unless you handle stress well, trading for a living without the educational groundwork is not something I would recommend (not suggeting this is what you are doing though), I know of some who have done it, but it wasn't pleasant times in those initial days.

The thing that interests me most about the above is that you wonder if you are seeing "patterns" that don't exist .. believe me they do, and don't believe that because you see something that no-one seems to talk about in pdf's, forums etc. that it is not something valid, if anything it is more so. 90% of traders lose money, 90% of forum discussion and public pdf's are on the same mix of indicators in different flavours .... coincidence?
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #9
  • Sep 5, 2006 7:19am Sep 5, 2006 7:19am
I'm more of a haphazard kinda guy, in everything I do, so wasn't methodical.

The issue at the moment is, actually being able to use my system in real time, with real $$$$'s, I can use it well with Demo but I become illogical when real $$$'s are at stake ( Which is strange, I'm a programmer and generally very logical and not emotional ), I guess no natural aptitude is what keeps me trying though.

It's also worth noting, alot of people spent ages working on a system, they've got all there RSI's up, but at the end of the day they've learnt on a subconscious level how to trade, if you messed up there indicators they'd still place the same trades.

It's also not as hard as we all make it, don't fall for the trap in thinkings it's rocket science, and then over complicating it.

Just think to yourself, are buyers or sellers controlling this market, then act accordingly, thats where I make most of my $$$'s

Good luck!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #10
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:07am Sep 5, 2006 10:07am
Quoting Turveyd
I'm more of a haphazard kinda guy, in everything I do, so wasn't methodical.

The issue at the moment is, actually being able to use my system in real time, with real $$$$'s, I can use it well with Demo but I become illogical when real $$$'s are at stake ( Which is strange, I'm a programmer and generally very logical and not emotional ), I guess no natural aptitude is what keeps me trying though.

It's also worth noting, alot of people spent ages working on a system, they've got all there RSI's up, but at the end of the day they've learnt on a subconscious level how to trade, if you messed up there indicators they'd still place the same trades.

It's also not as hard as we all make it, don't fall for the trap in thinkings it's rocket science, and then over complicating it.

Just think to yourself, are buyers or sellers controlling this market, then act accordingly, thats where I make most of my $$$'s

Good luck!!
Hi Turveyd,

Normally I select Portions of a post to quote but left this one complete as it all fits together, as a paradox, and I hope this post Helps you.

What I read above is, {omo}

I'm a haphazard programmer that thinks in logical terms but act on emotions. I have the confidence to tell others {PC's} what to do in any and all situations but lack the confidence to follow my own instructions.


Your right. It's not Rocket Science. As a matter of fact it's not a science at all. It's an Art. If it were a science, it Would be easy. RTFM as many times as it takes and your done. Now off you go and Trade till your bored.

Trading requires 2 things. 3 if you count Money.
A Frugal Attitude. {Money Management}
An Open Mind. {The Confidence to admit Errors (Psychology)}

Develop those and you are 96% there.
Finding the Money to start will be easy by comparison

Your a programmer. I've done a little myself but had no formal training. But what I do know is...
When I do program something and it doesn't provide the immediate Expected results, I have to evaluate 2 main things.

1) Did I Program it Wrong?
2) Were my "Expectations" wrong?

If I answer "No" to both of these, Then leave it running for a Test Period to see if it Normalizes. If it doesn't, Then start to tighten some screws, loosen some bolts or add a little reenforcement here or there "To a New Version" Always saving the Original in a safe place.

Perhaps 95% of traders believe to be successfull at this Game, you have to be running at full speed with your elbows up. If they do, then perhaps 5% of Traders know it's a walk in the park and occasionally you step in a little doodoo.

{Accrete may beg to differ on the Science v Art bit as some of his Art (impressive btw) is based in the Science of Mathematics}
  • #11
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:33am Sep 5, 2006 10:33am
Not to sure how to take that Bemac

I do okay trading wise, have the odd relapse back to stupid times, but there character building.

Just need to not trade against my system, and I'm Golden LOL

If you can admit to your errors then you can learn from your errors, if you can't your doomed and this will not be the game for you.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #12
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:35am Sep 5, 2006 10:35am
Quoting Turveyd
Not to sure how to take that Bemac

I do okay trading wise, have the odd relapse back to stupid times, but there character building.

Just need to not trade against my system, and I'm Golden LOL

If you can admit to your errors then you can learn from your errors, if you can't your doomed and this will not be the game for you.
Please take it as intended. An effort to help.
  • #13
  • Sep 5, 2006 11:27am Sep 5, 2006 11:27am
I thought so really, hence the '', and Thanks!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #14
  • Sep 10, 2006 12:11pm Sep 10, 2006 12:11pm
Quoting palabara
Too be frank, I worked on my system for a long time Lol. I spent massive amount of time back testing it over and over tweaking it, well in time frames it took years. But when you work on something this long, And you test it a million times to see that it is working, You no longer have emotions, and full Confidance in your system. You spent time working on it testing it and then when its ready after long while. You developed your self more in the proccess then you did your System learning Patients hard work and time to do million tests without loseing your mind.
I actually missed your post somehow when I first made this thread. I'm really seeing that developing your style or method of trading is really more about finding yourself than anything. I think I could probably take any number of systems that others teach and use and be somewhat successful at trading them. Without the work that goes into finding it though, you probably won't realize how you are supposed to interact with the market. Give the same rules and indicators to several people and some will probably be profitable and some will lose it all. I've heard this over and over, and I felt I understood it (on some level I did), but it resonates more now.
  • #15
  • Last Post: Sep 10, 2006 12:35pm Sep 10, 2006 12:35pm
Quoting Akuma99
It's a valid question, and one you won't get a standard answer to as it is such an individual process. I have two systems, one is well documented and traded by people here at FF, the other I have not revealed to the public and continues to develop as time goes by.

The process you are going through sounds very familiar, but rather harp on about how you must keep at it, patience .. etc. etc. .. ill pick you up one quote:



It can be a catch 22 in a way, finding the time and resources to research properly, while still needed to turn some money over to survive. Truth be known, unless you handle stress well, trading for a living without the educational groundwork is not something I would recommend (not suggeting this is what you are doing though), I know of some who have done it, but it wasn't pleasant times in those initial days.

The thing that interests me most about the above is that you wonder if you are seeing "patterns" that don't exist .. believe me they do, and don't believe that because you see something that no-one seems to talk about in pdf's, forums etc. that it is not something valid, if anything it is more so. 90% of traders lose money, 90% of forum discussion and public pdf's are on the same mix of indicators in different flavours .... coincidence?
I read your post with some relief. It's good to know I'm not seeing things.

At this point I think I've actually found the direction I will go in as well. Not where I thought I would be going in the beginning. I'm actually finding myself more drawn to being a discretionary trader. Using a cut and dry method, while appealing on some level, just seems to leave too many variables unquantified. Every trade is different to me.

I made 9 trades last week across a few different pairs and used different criteria on almost every one. I had only 3 losers, and they were small. Two of those still went the way I expected, but I set the stop a few pips too low. They were both on shorts and I keep forgetting that stop losses on shorts are activated on the ask. Execution seems to be my biggest problem at this point.

It still may be too early to tell, but at this point, it's where I feel the most confident. I will be forever learning and evolving my trading, and experience is the best teacher.

Thanks everyone!
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