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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #7,801
  • Edited 8:57am Jan 14, 2017 7:02am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting The Cableguy
But why the long time frame???! If you get a trade away, what is your Risk:Reward ratio and how long will it take to achieve?! Maybe you are chasing a 3 bagger for your money over several months time frame, but you can find those intraday and when EW is far more accurate. Here's an example on the UJ from earlier this week; uj11-01-17a.png;2140320 'b' waves will often retrace a fib level of 'a' whereas X waves retrace a fib of the prior 3 wave set. The easiest to identify is when it retraces 61.8% of the first abc set, then you get two bites of the...
Well done! for applying EW on intra-day trading. Waves are fractal that one can apply it in a similar way medium term and even long term as well.
It's just a preference of trading different time frames.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,802
  • Jan 14, 2017 7:43am Jan 14, 2017 7:43am
Quoting Sixer
skyhok, thanks - you can send your count plus the explanations to EWI and to these guys too: http://www.safehaven.com/article/433...-wave-analysis https://www.forex-tsd.com/forum/anno...-markets/page8 Do they copy from each other ? Sixer
Yes, my understanding of EW corrections, wave 2 & 4 including wave B are all a-b-c three waves & subdivid into 3-3-5 waves.
From what I've seen in FX markets, very seldom in 5 waves like a triangle.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,803
  • Jan 14, 2017 8:47am Jan 14, 2017 8:47am
Quoting The Cableguy
But why the long time frame???! If you get a trade away, what is your Risk:Reward ratio and how long will it take to achieve?!
..
Maybe you are chasing a 3 bagger for your money over several months time frame, but you can find those intraday and when EW is far more accurate. 
...
 a larger X wave retracing 61.8% of the previous long cycle. That was a 3 bagger in 25 minutes. {image} {image} {image}
 
Awesome posts Cableguy!! 
I, of course agree. 
 
Also need to add the swap fees. Hold euro and pay 1 pip a day!!!
 
The Fibo principles hold true. 20-30 pips here,  is all we need. 
And the wave could be 3,5,7. I think of them as channel sometimes. Then breakout. Easy to spot on 1H, 4H frames... 
Small sample here. Keep it simple
 
Green pips!!!
 
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Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #7,804
  • Jan 14, 2017 9:46am Jan 14, 2017 9:46am
Cheers NK! I still prefer smaller timeframes yet. Generally between 5 &30 minute trades. Keep it simple;

UJ this week, intraday 100 tick chart: Before;

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abc retracing 61.8% of prior cycle and back into Demand zone: After;

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Yes, you can break down the waves into further subs, but why the need, this is as micro as it gets whilst covering spreads/dealing costs...
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  • #7,805
  • Edited 1:06pm Jan 14, 2017 10:13am | Edited 1:06pm
Maybe i'm not making the point clearly. It's not about pips, it's about R:R ratios combined with probability.

Look at the risk on this trade;

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Yes, it might have been an abcde (expanding) LD, but, it would still be unlikely for the stop under indicated x wave to be nicked, as a 5w impulse count shouldn't suffer a 'b' wave retrace of more than typically 61.8% and def not more than 75%, so the most likely route was as indicated in the chart. A 3 pip risk including spread and a few minutes later +10.5

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Result was 3.5 times original risk combined with high probability.

Seek and ye shall find.
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  • #7,806
  • Jan 14, 2017 10:39am Jan 14, 2017 10:39am
That AudJpy is behaving well for a wave 5 completion to the top.....jumped it down at 84.44.....follows a set pattern time wise and one can call the reversals cause it was turns so slowly.....and wants to step up in 20 pip legs so pump money for a month on that pair.......

wave 4 ended at 83.xx....? Cheap to do a big lot allocation
  • #7,807
  • Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:52am Jan 14, 2017 12:01pm | Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:52am
Quoting Sixer
JP, did you copy the count from EWI ?? Sixer
nope , i calculate it myself from the lowest tf bottom up.
I Can be What I Will to be
  • #7,808
  • Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:53am Jan 14, 2017 12:11pm | Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:53am
hi all member, cheer
I Can be What I Will to be
  • #7,809
  • Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:55am Jan 14, 2017 2:52pm | Edited Jan 15, 2017 12:55am
EURUSD analysis [GrandSuperCycle - GSC]

by comparing the segment 1 and segment 2 (triangle) , i can see 2nd segment too small and too soon to be part of segment 1. for this reason i assume segment 2 as an x wave.

with this assumption i can calculate next reasonable projection of EURUSD is maximum (pesimistic direct-projection) to 0.703849.

And I always take the optimistic one for safety reason.

Invalidation of this calculation until 2017.01.25 08:00 [ALPARI RUSSIA time]

Attachment g
I Can be What I Will to be
  • #7,810
  • Jan 14, 2017 7:22pm Jan 14, 2017 7:22pm
Quoting John-Pacman
EURUSD analysis [GrandSuperCycle - GSC] by comparing the segment 1 and segment 2 (triangle) , i can see 2nd segment too small and too soon to be part of segment 1. for this reason i assume segment 2 as an x wave. with this assumption i can calculate next reasonable projection of EURUSD is minimum (optimistic direct-projection) to 0.916855 and maximum (pesimistic direct-projection) to 0.703849. And I always take the optimistic one for safety reason. Invalidation of this calculation until 2017.01.25 08:00 [ALPARI RUSSIA time] EURUSDMonthlyvvv.png;2140530...
Well done! for using long term charts for EW analysis, obviously not for trading on such large scale, but for ascertaining the starting point of waves and identifying what they are .................... and not least projecting the potential termination point of waves.

Here's some example of x waves within complex corrective b patterns & long term wave counts on EURUSD.
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From above it's easily certain that the decline from May 2014 top is a major 5 waves impulse wave C red. And that drop from May 2016 top is a minor wave c down potentially an ending diagonal wave c.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #7,811
  • Jan 15, 2017 12:57am Jan 15, 2017 12:57am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Well done! for using long term charts for EW analysis, obviously not for trading on such large scale, but for ascertaining the starting point of waves and identifying what they are .................... and not least projecting the potential termination point of waves. Here's some example of x waves within complex corrective b patterns & long term wave counts on EURUSD. EURUSD 15Jan17.png;2140619 From above it's easily certain that the decline from May 2014 top is a major 5 waves impulse wave C red. And that drop from May 2016 top is a minor...
OK skyhok, you are right.

let's karaoke then ...

Inserted Video
I Can be What I Will to be
  • #7,812
  • Jan 15, 2017 2:46am Jan 15, 2017 2:46am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Well done! for using long term charts for EW analysis, obviously not for trading on such large scale, but for ascertaining the starting point of waves and identifying what they are .................... and not least projecting the potential termination point of waves. Here's some example of x waves within complex corrective b patterns & long term wave counts on EURUSD. EURUSD 15Jan17.png;2140619 From above it's easily certain that the decline from May 2014 top is a major 5 waves impulse wave C red. And that drop from May 2016 top is a minor...

This for me was exactly what i was talking about when aspiring EW'ers try to label everything impulsively, when clearly there are sets of 3's. I almost do not know where to start. You have your first 'c' wave of B as a Lower High ending and labelled it in 5w when it is clearly in 3 (X or b).
You then have a tiny 1&2 and a massive wave 4. I absolutely gaurantee this is not possible. Waves stay roughly wihthin channels generally, unless they are diagonals, thus you need crossover for your wave 1 and it would be labelled abcde instead....

As i said yesterday and posted the chart. The big drop was clearly 2 sets of abc in one channel. That is one phase complete. Labelling without using fibs to prove the count is useless, as it can become one of many things and usually far different to what you are expecting...

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  • #7,813
  • Jan 15, 2017 3:40am Jan 15, 2017 3:40am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} This for me was exactly what i was talking about when aspiring EW'ers try to label everything impulsively, when clearly there are sets of 3's. I almost do not know where to start. You have your first 'c' wave of B as a Lower High ending and labelled it in 5w when it is clearly in 3 (X or b). You then have a tiny 1&2 and a massive wave 4. I absolutely gaurantee this is not possible. Waves stay roughly wihthin channels generally, unless they are diagonals, thus you need crossover for your wave 1 and it would be labelled abcde instead.... As...

Hi Cableguy, hi Skyhook, hi all :-)

when the movement from the top of at roughly 1.40 started and bottomed at 1.046 I was convinced, that it was an 1-2-3 move and the consolidation move would be the wave 4 of the impulse.

A very lot of fib-relations undermined that count. I have written so much about it in my thread. It is the same Skyhook has shown here. The fib-relationships were so clear for that count, so that I gave it highest priority.

But the the supposed to be wave 4 got bigger and bigger time wise, so that I was forced to abandon that view.

Out of my view the the movement down from the top at 1.40 to 1.046 can be count in multiple ways:

a) like Skyhook's count (1-2-(1-2-3-4-5)- now in 4 (but bad idear now, since the wave would lose its "right view", because wave 4 is simply far too big for the tiny wave 2

b) 1-2-3-4-(1-2-3-4-5) (extended fifth) (the wave 3 ended at 1.25)

c) something kind of Cableguy has shown: my critique here would be, that the both wave C in the ABC-x-ABC is very long compared to their wave A's. In ABC's the wave ratio of C to A up to 261% is high probability. Everything beyond 261% is very low probability.


My personal opinion for that is, that I have choosen variant B to go with.

Regarding the (ongoing) consolidation since 2015:

Maybe way too many Elliotticans have the same count. Group thinking has led to the believe, that we had build a triangle, and are now down in an impulsive move. Way too many people now bet, that we will see EU sub parity soon, and that the waves down will accelerate soon.

Well, maybe, maybe not. Maybe we are in a bigger kind of ending diagonal since the 1.17 high and are now at or near the bottom of the wave 3 of it. The the unfolding wave 4 could easily see 1.09 to 1.12 easily.


Keep in mind: social mood does not need to follow the ideal Elliott Wave path with the highest probability. Social mood can change on a dime.

The Elliott Wave principle is a flexible tool. But the more the waves develop, the better we can nail them down.

Since EW is a fractal approach, you can trade them on all TF's. Only you need to care, that your money management takes care of the wide swings of higher TF

Social mood on small intraday timeframes can be very tricky. Higher TF's are often better to interpret, because it is the bigger "collection" of social mood.

Problem with higher TF: some of the small movements may get lost and one can easily interpret wrongly. So check your count on multiple TF's for best results.


When trading currencies with EW, keep in mind, that Currencies are fast/vastly driven by CB's decisions from time to time. But then again: especially the CB's have show again and again, that they are only part of the herd, and that they are not nearly running near the forfront of the herd. You can observe that at the moment gratly by looking at the yield curves of the USD. Watch were the yield was already, when the FED decided to hike the rates. They are mainly followers.


Trade well
  • #7,814
  • Jan 15, 2017 3:46am Jan 15, 2017 3:46am
If i were to offer an opinion on the long term EU, (which i must stress i could not care less about, as it is not part of my trading), i would probably go along with John P's wedge idea, although not how he has labelled it;

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It's a possibility. As i said, the previous fast down trend was a complete phase and this will be an X wave to some degree. The problem with this count is that it did not retrace a fib level of the prior 3w drop and that would bother me, thus the other scenario could be the count in blue, as an irregular flat, so we would have a 'c' wave making a slight fresh high, preferably at the fib level on the chart, before starting the next phase.

However, more often than not, when i think i am looking at an irregular 'b' wave, the PA just keeps going and it turns out that the corrective move was already complete.

Thus back to my original point. One count says it goes down from here, one count conflicts and says it goes up from here. How can you take a trade in either direction with any confidence? By the time you have the confidence, the risk is massively skewed.

Imo, EW is the best thing out there to understand phases of markets, but you need to know how to apply it. Predicting stuff like this is all well and good to try to massage an ego, but does not and will not put money in the bank.

Use it to find low risk high reward and high probability trades as a guide, but you'll need to combine it with other methods to eliminate risks in general.
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  • #7,815
  • Jan 15, 2017 3:51am Jan 15, 2017 3:51am
Quoting skyhok
EURUSD Daily Since Mar 2015 low this pair has been developing a multi-months 3-3-5 A-B-C expanding flat correction (4). As the 1st wave down from May 2016 top & subsequent waves are zigzags, an ending diagonal (a family of zigzags) wave c is forming. Now advancing on 4th wave 4 of ED towards at least 1.1200. EURUSD 13Jan17.png;2139176 {image}

I like this idea of the big AB and C to follow
  • #7,816
  • Edited 10:07am Jan 15, 2017 3:57am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Cableguy, hi Skyhook, hi all :-) when the movement from the top of at roughly 1.40 started and bottomed at 1.046 I was convinced, that it was an 1-2-3 move and the consolidation move would be the wave 4 of the impulse. A very lot of fib-relations undermined that count. I have written so much about it in my thread. It is the same Skyhook has shown here. The fib-relationships were so clear for that count, so that I gave it highest priority. But the the supposed to be wave 4 got bigger and bigger time wise, so that I was forced to abandon...
-------------------------------------------------------

Hi Markus!

Good to read your input!

If the move from the low was to be a 4th (i do not agree), it would have had to have completed in August at 11,700 and thus we could be in an ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), but again, there is no confidence to call which count will be correct and kind of my point entirely...

I agree with you to take the most likely route, but dismissing two extended wave 'c's together? I think it is very likely the case, the fibs of the second set being 161.8% of the first... difficult to ignore, me thinks...

Again, i can not get my head around why anyone would be concerned with a move over such time frames unless they were buying/selling physical cash.
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  • #7,817
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:00am Jan 15, 2017 4:00am
Quoting The Cableguy
If i were to offer an opinion on the long term EU, (which i must stress i could not care less about, as it is not part of my trading), i would probably go along with John P's wedge idea, although not how he has labelled it; eu2d15-01-17.png;2140755 It's a possibility. As i said, the previous fast down trend was a complete phase and this will be an X wave to some degree. The problem with this count is that it did not retrace a fib level of the prior 3w drop and that would bother me, thus the other scenario could be the count in blue, as an irregular...

like this too, is same as Skyhook proposed in the message I referenced in my last post


You are right:

EW is only one tool in the box.

Try to get your hands on sentiment data.

Look at COT reports, too.

Maybe use volume analysis. But this one is very tricky and needs very much time, education on it, and understanding.

Do not care too much about funnymentals. If you care about fundamentals a lot, let me ask a simple question: why do you care then about Elliott Wave at all? Inquiring minds want to know.

Whatever floats your boat seems to be right......
  • #7,818
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:20am Jan 15, 2017 4:20am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} ------------------------------------------------------- Hi Markus! Good to read your input! If the move from the low was to be a 4th (i do not agree), it would have had to have completed in August at 11,700 and thus we could be in an ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), but again, there is no confidence to call which count will be correct and kind of my point entirely... I agree with you to take the most likely route, but dismissing too extended wave 'c's together? I think it is very likely the case, the fibs of the second set being 161.8% of the...

Hi CB,

same view on the wave 4 here: either the wave 4 ended at 1.17, or count is most likely wrong

I do work a lot with the research data from Swannel regarding the wave relationships. He has computed a vast amount of data.

There you can see, that C> than 2.61xA is low probability.

I will go with the highest probability I can get. Makes me not every time right, because probability is not certainty, but more often.

If the second wave ABC is 161% of the first ABC, I can easily postulate, that the wave 5 in my count is 161% of the wave 1-3. That would make me also feel very well.

in my preferred count with the extended 5th wave, I have a good alternation between wave 2 and wave 4.

OK, wave 2 is kind of a flat with 21-28 periods on daily chart (depending on how to count)

whereas wave 4 is a zigzag with 8 periods

That would qualify


Regarding the analysis of such big TF's:

EW is fractal.

Highest TF show normally the best visualization of social mood.

If you get the bigger picture wrong, you might end up with the wrong conclusions for smaller TF's

That is one aspect.

The second, and you have mentioned it already: some people have physical cash or use only low leverage.


Take me: I can call my broker and tell him to switch my Forex money from SFr account to USD account or EURO account or whatever you like. In this way you can even profit from the big moves without even trading. All you have to do is to find the high probability long term / medium term setups
  • #7,819
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:25am Jan 15, 2017 4:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} like this too, is same as Skyhook proposed in the message I referenced in my last post You are right: EW is only one tool in the box. Try to get your hands on sentiment data. Look at COT reports, too. Maybe use volume analysis. But this one is very tricky and needs very much time, education on it, and understanding. Do not care too much about funnymentals. If you care about fundamentals a lot, let me ask a simple question: why do you care then about Elliott Wave at all? Inquiring minds want to know. Whatever floats your boat seems to be...

We are on the same page there my friend. I have fought long battles with traders elsewhere on the internet, who prefer fundamentals and i always preach the same thing, they are usually already priced in long before you become aware, so how can you know... how can you have the all important confidence? to make money regularly, you have to have a system. You might be lucky every now and then without, but that only leads to over-confidence for the next one you get wrong!

As you rightly say, EW is TA, and 'fundamentals' are nothing to do with TA. TA leads in every aspect.

I day trade for a living and it is the best job in the world, no question.

I am not in the least bit interested in fundamentals, or even contrarian indicators. Sometimes they will be right, other times they will be wrong, this is not a system. Everything i need to know happens in a chart.

Simply use EW to determine an X wave and you know you will have a minimum abc set to follow. Since i started trading corrective waves, i became 10 x as profitable. I've written pages about it all elsewhere.
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  • #7,820
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:31am Jan 15, 2017 4:31am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi CB, same view on the wave 4 here: either the wave 4 ended at 1.17, or count is most likely wrong I do work a lot with the research data from Swannel regarding the wave relationships. He has computed a vast amount of data. There you can see, that C> than 2.61xA is low probability. I will go with the highest probability I can get. Makes me not every time right, because probability is not certainty, but more often. If the second wave ABC is 161% of the first ABC, I can easily postulate, that the wave 5 in my count is 161% of the wave 1-3....

Indeed. Everyone must find their own way to trade, this much is for sure, but if i may just add a chart from past week or so;

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The X waves of both degrees clearly retracing 61.8% of previous set...

and 30 minutes later;

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that was usuing EW and (more importantly) combined fibs to determine an X wave, so we know we have minimum abc to follow.

That was result of 3 x risk in 30 minutes, also high probability combined with the R:R ratio. I find several set-ups every day.
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