Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

Mian I have at long last taken your advice regarding time-frame if you are still about I will try to tell you which is the best 1 hour candle to take whether it will be a buy or sell I dont know at this specific time for a day trade

entry on the 7-8 candle on nymex @ 52.97 with stop at 53.10 for my day trade we will see where it takes us

stopped out by a couple of pips although the direction seems to be okay the next time I will increase the stop

Hi Prince,
I use both a mix of technicals & fundamentals in my trading. Appreciate you for expressing your views. I'm not offended and felt that your view was convincing. Trading is not about 100% certainity. However, I wanted to I analyse and understand where my analysis was wrong.

hi don555
i quit trading on spot . now i trade on future . so i change my trading set up . my setup is on 15 minute and take entry on 5 minute chart . i dont use ma. trade on price action and use nonlogdot and xsupertrend indicator .pivotpoint
my trade target is only 11 pips . and stop 17 pips.
you check nonlogdot. on forexfactory it is very good trading setup and give nice entry point . trade only us session.

this is my new setup.

I used to get notifications when something new is posted here. That has for some reason stopped. Maybe I need to post something every now and then? Anyone else facing this?

Regarding oil, this ranging could break today after the OPEC report. But honestly I think it will hold until Trump takes office. The weekly indicators look bearish.

Kweiss 10 I got an e-mail reply yesterday regarding details of a trade by Bernanke but the content did not come up here.
Dont know why not !!!

Thanks for sharing, it is very insightful in this thread.

Slow and painful consolidation continues
Is it a triangle?



Trade safe

Superb!!!!!!!!!!!

In my opinion yes it is! I am more into WTI

The most of the volume, as I can read it, is associated with buying. However, the sell movements appear stronger. I am not sure, but I am betting on a drop of at least 5 dollars before any possible up movement. This situation looks to me like a bull trap. If it would go up, too many bulls would make money. And if I have noticed one thing about the market, it is that it can't stand winners.

Good luck,
k

May I know which broker is offering MT5 NYMEX CL future with spread as at exchange.

I would suggest you go with AVA Trade as they offer non expriting crude oil CFD's

We’ve had headline news pushing oil prices for more than a year now, in the next 60 days we should have sufficient data to either support the bull theory or the bear theory.
Fundamentals, as stated in https://oiltrading.blog/2017/01/30/o...tion-analysis/should take over. We will go from a “news-orented” market to a “fundamental-oriented market”
Yet we have to keep in mind that OPEC (as always) has left the door open to excessive headline manipulation through their “maybe we will extend the cuts, maybe we will cut even more, maybe we won’t” rhetoric.
We will have answers to a lot of questions, most certainly:

1) Production data:

From OPEC – will the cuts be implemented?
From US – large increase in rigs should show significant production increases?

2) The “new technology” argument

For US production we don’t need so many rigs anymore for production to increase ? It will be in the data

3) OPEC / NOPEC cuts and their impact on imports

4-8 weeks for shipping (estimates vary) mean we should start seeing impact either next week in the weeklies or the following weeks – if we see increases due to non-participating OPEC members filling in to grab market share or NOPEC producers (including the newly NOPEC Indonesia) then oil has a problem

4) Predicted increase in US-based consumption post the typical seasonal drag from mid-November through February

5) Trump policy towards Iran

This could be big on both side. Will the US and Iran clash about new missile launches? If tensions increase we could have a new embargo sending oil price to the next level. If nothing, Iran could increase its production and send prices lower.

6) China

The world’s largest potential market manipulator has decreased domestic production from old, duct tape & spit production assets to import cheaper oil, some say filling a strategic reserve, some say fueling teapot refineries allowed some freedom, some say going into non-strategic storage. The point is: they are increasing imports. Will they continue to do so, or cut back to push prices down?
Keep in mind that all data out of China is inherently not credible due to the fact that they lie about everything

7) India

Ramifications of the de-monitization are apparent (through anecdotal evidence) throughout the country – the question is how this (and some rumored excessive legislation regarding gold importing and gold purchasing) will flow out through the economy and crude consumption. In the end, it will most likely be a huge benefit to India, but will the chaos continue for the medium-term?
As a result oil could stop trading sideways and enter a new trend, to the upside or to the downside. I think we could go down but nothing is sure for the moment.

Full article here

Jerem this is a great article, in my opinion oil prices is mostly correlates with the fundamentums and I absolutely agree with the questions and the possibilities. But what do you think, how many more years will this resource (crude oil) have? I mean new, more optimal technology is knocking at the door like electric cars and more effective batteries which will probably be used by the industry in the future, and oil is finite resource, so it should be substituted in the long run. And if we could estimate the time we could count on making profit by this.

Hi alphatrader,

honestly I have no idea. This is a very interesting point you are talking about but all the debates about "peak oil", new technologies and so on are part of the very long-term trend.

If you think in cycles, the points above are not very relevant.
There is plenty of oil remaining (new way to extract, new discoveries, huge existing reserves)
New tech are not good enough to make oil obsolete in the coming years

If you want to make money on crude oil you should work on your fundamentals (producers, demand, oil market etc...), on your technicals (patterns, important levels, price action) and overall on your understanding of the market as a whole (sentiment, smart money, the links between everything I cite in this sentence)

Hi Jerem,

Thank you for your valuable comment, I absolutely agree with you.

Crude oil is so essential in nowadays economies, many industries use not just for fuel production, but with refining there are a wide range of petroleum products, which has supply/demand on the market. So your concept is so true, that one must understand the whole oil market, from the supply through the production & distribution until the demand.

What is your opinion about the fundamantal effect on the oil market? Do you think it affects oil prices in the long run, or technicals are more important if someone want to invest for longer period of time in crude oil?

Alphatrader3,

I invite you to check this article I posted not so long ago: Oil Trading Method: General Approach, Tips and Basics Check-List

Hope it helps

Jerem