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Euro Japan Bargain?? or ??

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 1, 2006 6:14am Sep 1, 2006 6:14am
Euro Yen pair is testing the 200 hour moving average for the 5th time.
Is this the real trade while everyone is looking at the dollar crosses for Non Farm???

This is either yet another bargain or it is finally time for the 200 hour to fail.
I will be buying the pair with a stop below. If the 200 hr breaks and holds I will short this pair.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Sep 1, 2006 7:51am Sep 1, 2006 7:51am
Well the EUR/JPY long from the 200 hour moving average is working perfectly. the strategy sets the stop to +1 pip profit and let it run for at least a retest of the high. GAME ON
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #3
  • Sep 1, 2006 5:25pm Sep 1, 2006 5:25pm
Wish I'd done what you do. I've been doing *high stress* shorts from the top while everyone else is saying buy.

But as you say your entry provides a good risk/reward as long as you don't stretch out your stop.
  • #4
  • Sep 2, 2006 1:53pm Sep 2, 2006 1:53pm
Quoting minute
Wish I'd done what you do. I've been doing *high stress* shorts from the top while everyone else is saying buy.

But as you say your entry provides a good risk/reward as long as you don't stretch out your stop.
Hello minute,

Some people are having success with shorting new highs too. The shorts pay faster but they are more difficult for me to time. I just play it the way I see it.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #5
  • Sep 3, 2006 10:59am Sep 3, 2006 10:59am
Quoting FXopportunist
Hello minute,

Some people are having success with shorting new highs too. The shorts pay faster but they are more difficult for me to time. I just play it the way I see it.
I like seeing Highs/Lows at significant points of interest to me. This a hard call to make, but, I am actually watching this pair to go "Short". It just take time if I go for it or not. What is suggested on this pair can be a good Long, but, I will wait for my Short to form and trade another pair as I exercise Patients.
  • #6
  • Sep 4, 2006 7:42am Sep 4, 2006 7:42am
Well 149.09, who would have believed it? I was waiting for this to happen but timing was wrong. I'm won't publically state my own opinion because frankly I don't know. But at least she's a movin.
  • #7
  • Sep 4, 2006 7:59am Sep 4, 2006 7:59am
From the last months daily data.
It averages a 86 pip range.
I have the most exteme range for a day at 136 pips.

I was looking to get in at 149.66 but it dropped well below that.
ATM i am waiting to see if it can hold 149.
If it can hold 149 i believe i will buy to go long.
  • #8
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:41am Sep 4, 2006 8:41am
I too am gone long at the low 149. I hope to be getting out of this position about this time tomorrow evening.

  • #9
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:51am Sep 4, 2006 8:51am
Buy limit @ 149.28
Buy stop @149.39
Buy stop @149.69

Buy limit @ 148.55

(TP all 150.50)

Peter
  • #10
  • Sep 4, 2006 9:39am Sep 4, 2006 9:39am
looked like it held to me.
i got in long at 149.32 with stop below 149
  • #11
  • Sep 5, 2006 1:42am Sep 5, 2006 1:42am
Yen now trading at low 148's. Anyone think it'll drop further? I'm still taking long positions and I think after Fri it should rebound. Any ideas?
  • #12
  • Sep 5, 2006 8:46am Sep 5, 2006 8:46am
This is a drop down channel that I used to time the bottom of this move.
based on the T/A premise that when these bull channles fail the price falls the width of the channel
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #13
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:40am Sep 5, 2006 9:40am
You've got 14 lines on your chart. It's bound to hit one of them sooner or later.
  • #14
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:08am Sep 5, 2006 10:08am
Quoting philmcgrew
You've got 14 lines on your chart. It's bound to hit one of them sooner or later.
Phil, you are killing me - again.

I will assume you know what a bull channel is and you are just looking for trouble

If you are curious, the horizontal lines are pivot points of a sort. They are based on Murrey Math. Pretty good stuff. They have a ton of nuances that are very tradeable.

But the theme of that chart and the beauty of it is how the channel width was dead on for the break out target.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #15
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:21am Sep 5, 2006 10:21am
I was just kidding you and it's a good channel.

Thanks for the explanation.
  • #16
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:52am Sep 5, 2006 10:52am
Elliot would have as believe we have one more leg down coming.

what does everyone think the downside target is before consolodation???

I say if the lower channel breaks we will see 147.65 area which is also the 5/8's fibo retrace.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #17
  • Sep 5, 2006 12:34pm Sep 5, 2006 12:34pm
It's quite possible the pair will hit 61 fibo around 147.6. I would consider going long at that level with tight stop. Let's see what Tokyo brings tonight..

Quoting FXopportunist
Elliot would have as believe we have one more leg down coming.

what does everyone think the downside target is before consolodation???

I say if the lower channel breaks we will see 147.65 area which is also the 5/8's fibo retrace.
  • #18
  • Last Post: Sep 5, 2006 6:10pm Sep 5, 2006 6:10pm
Anyone think this week will be a see saw? At least till friday when BoJ speaks??
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