Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The lastest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com
- November Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Setting the Stage for the Worst Quarterly Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Since 2007, and Taking a Large Chunk Out of Fourth-Quarter 2016 GDP Growth
- Nonsense Employment Detail: Payrolls Rose 156,000 in December, Gained 703,000 in Last Four Months, but
Full-Time Employment Rose 35,000 in December, Flat (-8,000) in Last Four Months
- Annual Growth Rates in December Payroll and Full-Time Employment Fell Sharply, to Multi-Year Lows; Nonfarm Payrolls at Weakest Growth Since Exiting the Recession
- Household Survey Revisions Were Minimal for Widely Followed Details, yet January Unemployment Data Face a Series Break, while the Payroll Survey Faces Net Downside Benchmark Revisions Next Month
- December 2016 Unemployment Rates Mixed: U.3 Rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, U.6 Eased to 9.2% from 9.3%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Eased to 22.7% from 22.8%
- Despite a Monthly Nominal Gain and Downside Prior-Period Revisions, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 22% (-22%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession High
- December M3 Annual Growth Notched Higher to 3.9% Versus an Upwardly Revised 3.8% in November; Still Down from 4.5% in June
“No. 860: December Labor Conditions, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending”
www.shadowstats.com

All Thanks Go To TooSlow who posted this on his Thread.

 

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar240135_1.gif TooSlow
2. Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 7,117 Posts

What's the most most important thing a trader needs to know?

Answer: The most important skill you
have in trading is knowing exactly what
to do after a loss. What you do
next is what makes you great.

Let me take you through a little
progression.

If you know how to trade, you love it!
If you love trading, you know that losses
happen.

If your trade loses, you might think
it happened because you were wrong or
you made a mistake, or you just didn't
know what you were doing.

I have good news for you. None of that is true.
You were not wrong. You did not make a
mistake, nor did you fail to understand
what the market was doing.

When your trade loses, it's because the market's
timing was not there for you. Not only were
you not wrong to stop out of the trade, you
were exactly right!

What you do next is what defines you
as a trader.

Anyone can trade. Anyone can learn a strategy
and open and close a trade. What separates the
winners from the losers is what the trader does
after a loss.

- Jennifer Thornburg

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market...Data-Beat.html

Snippet:
Yen Gains Continue After Trade Data Beat
Wednesday, Jan 11, 2017 9:02 pm EST

by David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points

1. Japan scored a bigger-than-expected trade surplus in November
2. The overall Balance of Payments rose for a 29th straight month
3. USD/JPY was already slipping, these data won’t have helped.

The Yen continued to gain on Thursday after the release of supportive Japanese trade data, but the trend was already for USD/JPY weakness after US President-elect Donald Trump’s Wednesday press conference, and it is hard to gauge the data’s precise impact.
All we can say is that the numbers would probably have been Yen-supportive even without the focus on Washington.
November’s trade balance was revealed to have been in surplus to the tune of 313.4 billion ($2.72 billion) as imports fell much faster than exports, leaving the old question marks over the country’s internal demand very much in place.
That surplus was well above than the 250 billion expected but below the 587.6 billion scored in October. However, the broader current account was in the black for a 29th straight month, to the tune of1.415 trillion, up 28% on the year. Numbers released at the same time showed that bank lending rose by a punchy 2.6% in December.
USD/JPY had already trickled down from the 115.50 area as trade got under way in Tokyo, and it had got down as far as 114.96 in the wake of the data.
The overall foreign exchange market was already tending towards a little rethink of recent US Dollar strength after Mr. Trump failed to offer much in terms of concrete policy plans at his first substantive meeting with journalists in the US on Wednesday.
Heading lower anyway: USD/JPY
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png
Chart compiled using TradingView
Which currencies aren’t feeling the love out there? Take a look at the DailyFX sentiment page.
--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research
Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.







WE know why USD/JPY went down today do we not ? Of course we do and we trade that way with Correlation.

Our top Forex Trader KeepCalmfx did great today as well on other days in the 15 days he has been trading the professional way.

Here is the copy of what he said. Maybe we should write commentary for DailyFX

What an intense 2 hours!

Traded 2 FXCM Demo accounts together, 25 trades total $ 4 625 profit for the day

Moved my stop losses to break even after $250, never had more than 10% risk in total, when closing positions opened another, and never had more than 3 positions at a time on a pair.

Only focused on US30 and JPY.

Should not have opened my last 3 positions on my FXCM MT4 account, got a bit carried away. Goal was $ 60 000, should have closed all positions on my goal. Lesson learned…

Total for FXCM Trading Station Demo account $ 57 062.99
Total for FXCM MT4 Demo account $ 59 047.72

I agree with you Benjamin, it helps a lot to know the trend, worth all the research, learning and reading.

If you have reached your 20% target, do you then stop trading for the month?
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1484163337 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1484163403 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1484163451

1


Benjaminis

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Charts for today, one big news event for today, unemployment claims.

Congrats for your results KeepCalm, you're a beast!

LOL - I think I got a bit carried away, was in a zone, but it was so much FUN!

I agree with this post, how a person handles a loss shows what type of trader you are!

Loss is a cost of doing business, except it and move on. You must learn to love a loss, then you are closer to the next trade being a winner.

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Good Morning or Good Afternoon Forex Traders

My topic this morning is the following article that I read this morning. I will post the link here.

http://humbletraders.com/daily-ellio...ibly-complete/

Snippet:
30 min
http://humbletraders.com/wp-content/...y-30-min-6.jpg

Snippet: The commentary about the USD/JPY Chart.

My Bias: neutral- long
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [iii] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Evans Speaks, FOMC Member Harker Speaks, Import Prices m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.


Last night I was looking for USDJPY to decline further in wave (c) green,
After a brief rise to touch the upper trendline of that trend chanel, the price dropped 240 points in a couple of hours.

There is no other for of analysis that I know of, other than Elliott wave analysis, that allows you to see past the cold right edge of the chart like that.
And that is why I use this form of analysis.

Back to the market.
There is a possibility that wave (c) green is complete at todays low of 114.24.

I have shown that option on the chart, but wave iv brown could also form a triangle from here, which would allow for another low in the coming days.

The lower target in wave [iv] grey was about 113.90 so that option is not off the table just yet.
If we get a rally above the resistance at wave (b) green, then we can start turning bullish again in wave [v] grey.
Also keep in mind the Alternate wave count on the Daily chart, This view is slightly remote in terms of probability as of today, but there is a certain appeal to that larger picture.

If the market starts dropping through previous support levels, then this wave count will be favored.

Firstly I am looking to see if todays low holds.

COMMENTARY from Benjaminis: We all saw yesterday how important using the charts were yesterday. Especially the charts that wayfarer posted on divergence. That said there is no question that using charts and other forms of technical analysis forms an important part of successful Forex trading. That said everyone that trades must know about Elliot Wave Theory.

Yesterday all of us here understood and accordingly traded with our understanding of Money Flow along with using Risk Management to control the RISK especially in events that we experienced yesterday. Looking back is always easier in order to understand what was the EVENT that caused the Dow Jones Index to drop. We were all ready for the Event Risk because we prepared properly. We knew what would happen if the Dow (US 30) went down.

When President Elect Donald J. Trump discussed the Pharmaceutical industry that was what caused the Health Care stocks to drop immediately and since some of those stocks are in the Dow 30, we now know what the US 30 dropped and also as important why USD/JPY went down so sharply.

There is a reason based on logic and Common Sense why this happened. Most of the time I have Common Sense that many times is not so common. There is very few Forex Traders whether retail or commercial that consistently make money trading Forex that uses incredible leverage. Whether the number is 90% or 95% that is not the issue. There is a very important reason that I am focusing on this post and probably taking around one hour out of my busy schedule to do complete my Morning Thoughts.

It is very very important for all Forex Traders to understand that by only using only the TECHNICALS , you almost guarantee that you will be a financial loser.
Read the commentary after the chart of USD/JPY in the article and contrast that not only what we have learned and know here.

Look at our RESULTS !!! I was on a HIGH yesterday because of how many of the 12 original Forex Traders were producing such excellent results that cannot be denied. I had the opportunity in real time to see what it took me 14 years of my life to learn being applied by other good people and Forex Traders in less than 3 weeks of trading Forex the proper and winning way. The credit goes to all of us since by working hard and asking questions and taking the time to learn and listen carefully and working as a team the results were obtained in peace and harmony which in itself is an accomplishment posting on Forex Factory where there are some incredibly talented Forex traders such as GoSlow and Davit.

Which brings me to my last thoughts. You can find ways that suit your knowledge and training and experience that allow you to succeed trading Forex like GoSlow and Davit have done. The whole point that I am making that in order to have knowledge and certainty you MUST UNDERSTAND how to trade and also protect yourself and know that if A happens then the result will be B.

Thank You All for helping me to achieve my goal of teaching others what I have learned in a fair and fun way.


Benjaminis happy !!!

Good Morning and or Good Afternoon.

I will not be online much before 10:30 AM so I am sure everyone knows what to do. Your comments on my Morning Thoughts would be appreciated. All of your questions and comments will be replied to upon my return. Today it appears that we have Risk ON and we also should be more than aware that there are many FED speakers today which includes Janet Yellen. One word from any of them can effect the markets in a major way so you need to be extra careful today.

They just might want the markets to go down however we will have a better sense after we hear and or read their remarks. I know that KeepCalmfx has a free 30 day trial with RANSQUACK and maybe some others here have arranged it at my request. By using RANSQUACK you will have almost immediate news of what they are saying. James Bullard of the St Louis FED is now speaking on CNBC live. His comments seem to say that there is NO NEED for an immediate Rate Hike so on one hand it should weaken the US Dollar because of interest rate differences, then on the other hands it might give a short term boost to the markets however I have my doubts based on the other indicators that I shared here yesterday.

I am happy to work with all of you. The Future is ahead of us as we continue on with our lives.

Respectfully ,


Benjamin

Hi Benjamin

Thank you for the time you put into this informative post. I like his charts and agree Elliot wave is very important to be aware off. I like his technical analyses.

I like Ransquack, as the news comes out you can see the chart moves. Intersesting I have it on, like the train passing by every now and again. Think it is a train?

Hows everyone today? Why does it appear to be Risk On, when DOW, UJ, 10YR Bond are all negative, probably you meant Risk Off.

Hi Goodness, doing well, it's because of the FED speakers?

Ok, Thank you KeepCalmFx, still learning

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet One:

Historically, economies have taken many years to collapse; I show a range of 20 to 50 years in Figure 1. We really don’t know if collapse would take that long now. Today, we are dependent on an international financial system, an international trade system, electricity, and the availability of oil to make our vehicles operate. It would seem as if this time collapse could come much more quickly.

With the world economy this close to collapse, some individual countries are even closer to collapse. This is why we can expect to see sharp downturns in the fortunes of some countries. If contagion is not too much of a problem, other countries may continue to do fairly well, even as individual small countries fail.
[2] Figures to be released in 2017 and future years are likely to show that the peak in world coal consumption occurred in 2014. This is important, because it means that countries that depend heavily on coal, such as China and India, can expect to see much slower economic growth, and more financial difficulties.


Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart” process started in 2016, in my opinion we are going to see many more steps in this direction in 2017. Let me explain a few of the things I see.
[1] Many economies have collapsed in the past. The world economy is very close to the turning point where collapse starts in earnest.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...ng?w=640&h=452
Figure 1
The history of previous civilizations rising and eventually collapsing is well documented.(See, for example, Secular Cycles.)
To start a new cycle, a group of people would find a new way of doing things that allowed more food and energy production (for instance, they might add irrigation, or cut down trees for more land for agriculture). For a while, the economy would expand, but eventually a mismatch would arise between resources and population. Either resources would fall too low (perhaps because of erosion or salt deposits in the soil), or population would rise too high relative to resources, or both.

Even as resources per capita began falling, economies would continue to have overhead expenses, such as the need to pay high-level officials and to fund armies. These overhead costs could not easily be reduced, and might, in fact, grow as the government attempted to work around problems. Collapse occurred because, as resources per capita fell (for example, farms shrank in size), the earnings of workers tended to fall. At the same time, the need for taxes to cover what I am calling overhead expenses tended to grow. Tax rates became too high for workers to earn an adequate living, net of taxes. In some cases, workers succumbed to epidemics because of poor diets. Or governments would collapse, from lack of adequate tax revenue to support them.

Snippet Two:
In the recent past, the growth in GDP has tended to be a little higher than the growth in the use of energy products. One reason why GDP growth has been a percentage point or two higher than energy consumption growth is because, as economies become richer, citizens can afford to add more services to the mix of goods and services that they purchase (fancier hair cuts and more piano lessons, for example). Production of services tends to use proportionately less energy than creating goods does; as a result, a shift toward a heavier mix of services tends to lead to GDP growth rates that are somewhat higher than the growth in energy consumption.

A second reason why GDP growth has tended to be a little higher than growth in energy consumption is because devices (such as cars, trucks, air conditioners, furnaces, factory machinery) are becoming more efficient. Growth in efficiency occurs if consumers replace old inefficient devices with new more efficient devices. If consumers become less wealthy, they are likely to replace devices less frequently, leading to slower growth in efficiency. Also, as we will discuss later in this post, recently there has been a tendency for fossil fuel prices to remain artificially low. With low prices, there is little financial incentive to replace an old inefficient device with a new, more efficient device. As a result, new purchases may be bigger, offsetting the benefit of efficiency gains (purchasing an SUV to replace a car, for example).

Thus, we cannot expect that the past pattern of GDP growing a little faster than energy consumption will continue. In fact, it is even possible that the leveraging effect will start working the “wrong” way, as low fossil fuel prices induce more fuel use, not less. Perhaps the safest assumption we can make is that GDP growth and energy consumption growth will be equal. In other words, if world energy consumption growth is 0% (as in Figure 4), world GDP growth will also be 0%. This is not something that world leaders would like at all.

The situation we are encountering today seems to be very similar to the falling resources per capita problem that seemed to push early economies toward collapse in [1]. Figure 5 above suggests that, on average, the paychecks of workers in 2017 will tend to purchase fewer goods and services than they did in 2016 and 2015. If governments need higher taxes to fund rising retiree costs and rising subsidies for “renewables,” the loss in the after-tax purchasing power of workers will be even greater than Figure 5 suggests.

[5] Because many countries are in this precarious position of falling resources per capita, we should expect to see a rise in protectionism, and the addition of new tariffs.
Clearly, governments do not want the problem of falling wages (or rather, falling goods that wages can buy) impacting their countries. So the new game becomes, “Push the problem elsewhere.”
In economic language, the world economy is becoming a “Zero-sum” game. Any gain in the production of goods and services by one country is a loss to another country. Thus, it is in each country’s interest to look out for itself. This is a major change from the shift toward globalization we have experienced in recent years. China, as a major exporter of goods, can expect to be especially affected by this changing view.

Snippet Three:
[6] China can no longer be expected to pull the world economy forward.
China’s economic growth rate is likely to be lower, for many reasons. One reason is the financial problems of coal mines, and the tendency of coal production to continue to shrink, once it starts shrinking. This happens for many reasons, one of them being the difficulty in obtaining loans for expansion, when prices still seem to be somewhat low, and the outlook for the further increases does not appear to be very good.

Another reason why China’s economic growth rate can be expected to fall is the current overbuilt situation with respect to apartment buildings, shopping malls, factories, and coal mines. As a result, there seems to be little need for new buildings and operations of these types. Another reason for slower economic growth is the growing protectionist stance of trade partners. A fourth reason is the fact that many potential buyers of the goods that China is producing are not doing very well economically (with the US being a major exception). These buyers cannot afford to increase their purchases of imports from China.

With these growing headwinds, it is quite possible that China’s total energy consumption in 2017 will shrink. If this happens, there will be downward pressure on world fossil fuel prices. Oil prices may fall, despite production cuts by OPEC and other countries.
China’s slowing economic growth is likely to make its debt problem harder to solve. We should not be too surprised if debt defaults become a more significant problem, or if the yuan falls relative to other currencies.

India, with its recent recall of high denomination currency, as well as its problems with low coal demand, is not likely to be a great deal of help aiding the world economy to grow, either. India is also a much smaller economy than China.

[7] While Item [2] talked about peak coal, there is a very significant chance that we will be hitting peak oil and peak natural gas in 2017 or 2018, as well.
If we look at historical prices, we see that the prices of oil, coal and natural gas tend to rise and fall together.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...ng?w=640&h=440
Figure 6. Prices of oil, coal and natural gas tend to rise and fall together. Prices based on 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy data.
The reason that fossil fuel prices tend to rise and fall together is because these prices are tied to “demand” for goods and services in general, such as for new homes, cars, and factories. If wages are rising rapidly, and debt is rising rapidly, it becomes easier for consumers to buy goods such as homes and cars. When this happens, there is more “demand” for the commodities used to make and operate homes and cars. Prices for commodities of many types, including fossil fuels, tend to rise, to enable more production of these items.

Of course, the reverse happens as well. If workers become poorer, or debt levels shrink, it becomes harder to buy homes and cars. In this case, commodity prices, including fossil fuel prices, tend to fall. Thus, the problem we saw above in [2] for coal would be likely to happen for oil and natural gas, as well, because the prices of all of the fossil fuels tend to move together. In fact, we know that current oil prices are too low for oil producers. This is the reason why OPEC and other oil producers have cut back on production. Thus, the problem with overproduction for oil seems to be similar to the overproduction problem for coal, just a bit delayed in timing.

In fact, we also know that US natural gas prices have been very low for several years, suggesting another similar problem. The United States is the single largest producer of natural gas in the world. Its natural gas production hit a peak in mid 2015, and production has since begun to decline. The decline comes as a response to chronically low prices, which make it unprofitable to extract natural gas. This response sounds similar to China’s attempted solution to low coal prices.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...ng?w=640&h=383
Figure 7. US Natural Gas production based on EIA data.
The problem is fundamentally the fact that consumers cannot afford goods made using fossil fuels of any type, if prices actually rise to the level producers need, which tends to be at least five times the 1999 price level. (Note peak price levels compared to 1999 level on Figure 6.) Wages have not risen by a factor of five since 1999, so paying the prices that fossil fuel producers need for profitability and growing production is out of the question. No amount of added debt can hide this problem. (While this reference is to 1999 prices, the issue really goes back much farther, to prices before the price spikes of the 1970s.)

US natural gas producers also have plans to export natural gas to Europe and elsewhere, as liquefied natural gas (LNG). The hope, of course, is that a large amount of exports will raise US natural gas prices. Also, the hope is that Europeans will be able to afford the high-priced natural gas shipped to them. Unless someone can raise the wages of both Europeans and Americans, I would not count on LNG prices actually rising to the level needed for profitability, and staying at such a high level. Instead, they are likely to bounce up, and quickly drop back again.

[8] Unless oil prices rise very substantially, oil exporters will find themselves exhausting their financial reserves in a very short time (perhaps a year or two). Unfortunately, oil importers cannot withstand higher prices, without going into recession.
We have a no win situation, no matter what happens. This is true with all fossil fuels, but especially with oil, because of its high cost and thus necessarily high price. If oil prices stay at the same level or go down, oil exporters cannot get enough tax revenue, and oil companies in general cannot obtain enough funds to finance the development of new wells and payment of dividends to shareholders. If oil prices do rise by a very large amount for very long, we are likely headed into another major recession, with many debt defaults.



[9] US interest rates are likely to rise in the next year or two, whether or not this result is intended by the Federal reserve.
This issue here is somewhat obscure. The issue has to do with whether the United States can find foreign buyers for its debt, often called US Treasuries, and the interest rates that the US needs to pay on this debt. If buyers are very plentiful, the interest rates paid by he US government can be quite low; if few buyers are available, interest rates must be higher.


Back when Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters were doing well financially, they often bought US Treasuries, as a way to retain the benefit of their new-found wealth, which they did not want to spend immediately. Similarly, when China was doing well as an exporter, it often bought US Treasuries, as a way retaining the wealth it gained from exports, but didn’t yet need for purchases.
When these countries bought US Treasuries, there were several beneficial results:

1. Interest rates on US Treasuries tended to stay artificially low, because there was a ready market for its debt.
2. The US could afford to import high-priced oil, because the additional debt needed to buy the oil could easily be sold (to Saudi Arabia and other oil producing nations, no less).
3. The US dollar tended to stay lower relative to other currencies, making oil more affordable to other countries than it otherwise might be.
4. Investment in countries outside the US was encouraged, because debt issued by these other countries tended to bear higher interest rates than US debt. Also, relatively low oil prices in these countries (because of the low level of the dollar) tended to make investment profitable in these countries.

The effect of these changes was somewhat similar to the US having its own special Quantitative Easing (QE) program, paid for by some of the counties with trade surpluses, instead of by its central bank. This QE substitute tended to encourage world economic growth, for the reasons mentioned above.
Once the fortunes of the countries that used to buy US Treasuries changes, the pattern of buying of US Treasuries tends to change to selling of US Treasuries. Even not purchasing the same quantity of US Treasuries as in the past becomes an adverse change, if the US has a need to keep issuing US Treasuries as in the past, or if it wants to keep rates low.

Unfortunately, losing this QE substitute tends to reverse the favorable effects noted above. One effect is that the dollar tends to ride higher relative to other currencies, making the US look richer, and other countries poorer. The “catch” is that as the other countries become poorer, it becomes harder for them to repay the debt that they took out earlier, which was denominated in US dollars.

Another problem, as this strange type of QE disappears, is that the interest rates that the US government needs to pay in order to issue new debt start rising. These higher rates tend to affect other rates as well, such as mortgage rates. These higher interest rates act as a drag on the economy, tending to push it toward recession.

Higher interest rates also tend to decrease the value of assets, such as homes, farms, outstanding bonds, and shares of stock. This occurs because fewer buyers can afford to buy these goods, with the new higher interest rates. As a result, stock prices can be expected to fall. Prices of homes and of commercial buildings can also be expected to fall. The value of bonds held by insurance companies and banks becomes lower, if they choose to sell these securities before maturity.

Of course, as interest rates fell after 1981, we received the benefit of falling interest rates, in the form of rising asset prices. No one ever stopped to think about how much of the gains in share prices and property values came from falling interest rates.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...ng?w=640&h=425
Figure 8. Ten year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.

Now, as interest rates rise, we can expect asset prices of many types to start falling, because of lower affordability when monthly payments are based on higher interest rates. This situation presents another “drag” on the economy.



In Conclusion
The situation is indeed very concerning. Many things could set off a crisis:

1. Rising energy prices of any kind (hurting energy importers), or energy prices that don’t rise (leading to financial problems or collapse of exporters)
2. Rising interest rates.
3. Defaulting debt, indirectly the result of slow/negative economic growth and rising interest rates.
4. International organizations with less and less influence, or that fall apart completely.
5. Fast changes in relativities of currencies, leading to defaults on derivatives.
6. Collapsing banks, as debt defaults rise.
7. Falling asset prices (homes, farms, commercial buildings, stocks and bonds) as interest rates rise, leading to many debt defaults.

Things don’t look too bad right now, but the underlying problems are sufficiently severe that we seem to be headed for a crisis far worse than 2008. The timing is not clear. Things could start falling apart badly in 2017, or alternatively, major problems may be delayed until 2018 or 2019. I hope political leaders can find ways to keep problems away as long as possible, perhaps with more rounds of QE. Our fundamental problem is the fact that neither high nor low energy prices are now able to keep the world economy operating as we would like it to operate. Increased debt can’t seem to fix the problem either.


The laws of physics seem to be behind economic growth. From a physics point of view, our economy is a dissipative structure. Such structures form in “open systems.” In such systems, flows of energy allow structures to temporarily self-organize and grow. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems, all plants and animals, stars, and hurricanes. All of these structures constantly “dissipate” energy. They have finite life spans, before they eventually collapse. Often, new dissipative systems form, to replace previous ones that have collapsed.


The one thing that gives me hope is the fact that there seems to be some type of a guiding supernatural force behind the whole system that allows so much growth. Some would say that this supernatural force is “only” the laws of physics (and biology and chemistry). To me, the fact that so many structures can self-organize and grow is miraculous, and perhaps evidence of a guiding force behind the whole universe.


I don’t know precisely what is next, but it seems quite possible that there is a longer-term plan for humans that we are not aware of. Some of the religions of the world may have insights on what this plan might be. It is even possible that there may be divine intervention of some type that allows a change in the path that we seem to be on today.

I am back online now and I have done one Forex Trade which I will get to in a minute. First replying to KeepCalmfx , the main point of my Morning Thoughts was that unless you follow more than the charts which only is an immediate X RAY of where we are I cannot see how I could average at least a 75% winning rate and Return on Investment of 10% or more consistently year after year.

I put on One Position of SHORT 100 units of US 30 at 8:19 AM EST and at 10:05 AM with my Limit Out set at 8:20 AM EST right after I did my Forex Trade based on our Trade Plan Number One my position was closed with a realized profit of $1105 US Dollars. My Capital required to do the Forex trade was $1100 US and so my Risk Reward Ratio was 1 To 1. The most that I could have lost on my Forex trade was 2% of my Forex Trading CAPITAL because of OUR Risk Management Strategy.
Now look at the comments made from the Elliot Wave Chart again of USD/JPY.

That is WHY this works and once everyone sees your results after only 23 days of trading which was December 20, 2016 , there is NO DOUBT and my results confirm that. I sincerely hope that in the future WE will be able to assist thousands of Forex Traders around the World to Finally , Swim With The Sharks and still manage to not be eaten by them.


Benjaminis RIGHT !!!

Good Work . goodness

I do make mistakes because I am human just as you are and you are correct , I made a mistake and you caught it as with the information you saw YES , this morning we started with Risk OFF. I meant to say Risk OFF however I did not and since you pointed it out you have shown me that you are learning to think for yourself.


Benjaminis happy that you saw this. What KeepCalmFX meant is that the Risk OFF might have been changed to Risk ON if the party line of the FED speakers today was hawkish or dovish however based on our research done by others that was shared here it looks like the Dow 30 and the other markets around the world have come back to the Real World. It does not seem that the FED has much credibility left and maybe they should go shopping for NEW Clothes because they seem to become more naked everyday to the real Truth or at least more people see that they talk with Forked Tongues. They CANNOT RAISE RATES AGAIN THIS YEAR without collapsing the financial markets around the world and as of January 20, 2017 , they will lose much of their power.

Hello, BenjaminIs ! Questions:Превышение правительства США долга 20 триллионов долларов в 2017 году.
<В конце 2016 года государственный долг США увеличился на 1.3223 триллионов долларов. По предварительным оценкам, стоимость 20 $ триллион будет превышен в первом квартале 2017 года Итак, Америка забрать в долг 10 триллионов долларов всего за восемь лет. За предыдущие 10 трлн больше, чем 200 лет. Несмотря на большой долг из-за крайне низких процентных ставок, США расходы на выплату процентов по своим ценным бумагам не более 300 миллиардов долларов в год, а в существующих условиях, могут накапливать долг до бесконечности. Но если ставка по 10-летним облигациям вырастет с нынешних 2% до 4,5% (базовый прогноз Конгресса), это увеличит стоимость услуг до 800-900 млрд долларов в год в течение 7-10 лет, а выплаты купона будет идти до половины налоговых поступлений правительства. [20] На фоне этого прогноза, феноменальные темпы роста задолженности показывает полную потерю контроля и генерирует разговоры о возможном дефолте крупнейших экономик в мире. С июня по октябрь 2016 года общий объем инвестиций в государственные облигации стран Америки уменьшилась почти на 242 000 000 000 долларов [21] [22]. Общая сумма долга принадлежит другим странам, снизился до 6.038 триллиона долларов. Основные продавцы Китая, Бельгии, России и Норвегии [23].>
Вот вопрос для всех: с такими фигурами, которые увеличат ставку на Dow до 4-5%? Федеральная резервная система будет выгодно для долгосрочных кредитов в виде облигаций (все покупают 5-10Y). Наша работа, так как трейдеры не пропустите поворотные моменты 10Y и Dow? Эти документы связаны все другие активы? Я правильно думаю?

I see that you nailed this trade -- I was monitoring this --- boy it came very close to your SL but it did make it to the TP

sorry for the late post but between all your prolific writing and my trading its hard to keep up with you, LOL

following with interest.

Thanks

I appreciate your reply. Have a good Forex trading day. See you soon and keep those PIPS coming.


Benjaminis