Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

I put on a Trade for SHORT US 30 almost at the perfect second and entered at 11:26 AM at 19,933.50 and by 11:34 AM EST , I was out in 8 SWEET minutes with a Profit of $800 US Dollars. (19,853.50)

I also closed my other two Positions not closed last night as I have explained already today and I was able to take profits of $561.37 US Dollars then something that I have learned only through experience , I decided there were still many unknowns so I closed my two other USD/JPY positions for profits and now I might only do one more Forex Trade today or if not WHO CARES !!!

That you can only learn after at least one year of Forex Trading as you develop a Sixth Sense.

ACCOUNT SUMMARY


Trading Commission-72.00

Rollover Fee-877.10

Profit/Loss of Trade 10,566.44

Deposit 50,000.00

Ending Balance 59,617.34

Floating P/L 0.00

Equity 59,617.34

Necessary Margin 0.00

Usable Margin 59,617.34

I have done 20 Forex Trades in 22 Days and won 18 of them for a winning percentage of 90%

I am less than $500 US Dollars from my 20% goal of Return on Investment. (ROI)

Thanks for the input and great charts from wayfarer and KeepCalmfx.

WE ROCK !!!


Benjaminis


Notes:


"THIS IS A DEMO ACCOUNT WHICH IS TRADED WITH VIRTUAL FUNDS. NO REAL MONEY IS USED IN TRADING THIS ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are used primarily for education purposes, testing of strategies, and familiarizing traders with market movement and the FX Trading Station. There are inherent risks associated with online trading that may arise due to downtime, currency fluctuation and other risks associated with currency speculation. Only risk capital should be used when trading a real account."

Benjaminis, congratulations!

Congratulations on pilling the $

What an intense 2 hours!

Traded 2 FXCM Demo accounts together, 25 trades total $ 4 625 profit for the day

Moved my stop losses to break even after $250, never had more than 10% risk in total, when closing positions opened another, and never had more than 3 positions at a time on a pair.

Only focused on US30 and JPY.

Should not have opened my last 3 positions on my FXCM MT4 account, got a bit carried away. Goal was $ 60 000, should have closed all positions on my goal. Lesson learned…

Total for FXCM Trading Station Demo account $ 57 062.99
Total for FXCM MT4 Demo account $ 59 047.72

I agree with you Benjamin, it helps a lot to know the trend, worth all the research, learning and reading.

If you have reached your 20% target, do you then stop trading for the month?

HEADS UP !!!

I have logged on to all 13 FXCM UK Demo Accounts with $50,000 US Dollars to start in them.

I will not speak about any one Forex Trader directly however here are my observations. Those actively trading and to my big surprise some have done very well. Please share your results here by taking a SCREENSHOT and then it will save me from logging on to each of the 12 FXCM UK accounts.

I have two strong suggestions. For the moment be very careful trading Gold or Silver. There are things about these commodities and Store of Value in effect a real Currency of Value. I myself have not made one Gold or Silver Forex Trade. Let us concentrate on what we know incredibility well and that is SHORT US 30 and SHORT USD/JPY.

The other thing I suggest is to let your PROFITS run by of course lowering your STOPS to lock in a profit of at least $250 US Dollars.

I know why this is being done because of your past training in scalping for a few PIPS.

You can now see the POWER of KNOWING the TREND , then confirming it with the Technical Indicators then protecting yourself with our Risk Management Strategy.

How can you lose using our way of trading Forex. You cannot if you follow the Trade Strategy.

I also once again want to thank all of you that have worked hard and contributed and as we now have seen in harmony and cooperation we ALL reach our goals.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:

From everyone's multi-strat wizard, the head of RBC's cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElliggott

The Single Largest Macro Risk To The Buyside
The US Dollar is the grand unifying theory asset for nearly any and all profile global macro or thematic equities trades in the marketplace right now, as it represents investors being long this new version of economic growth. As such, performance is significantly tied to the direction in the US Dollar.

SO THENlets take it back to the January Effect. Ive been doing a bunch of client marketing this week, with the meat of the discussion being largely centered upon buy-side concerns surrounding said seasonal mean-reversion metastasizing into something larger. I qualify this as something larger, because at this time, NONE of the YTD performance reversals from Q4 have been outright PNL destroyers. Sure, popular shorts like USTs / long duration, EM stocks, gold and equity growth factor are all squeezing higher out of the gatesbut by and large, so too are popular longs like small cap equities, inflation, copper, high beta cyclical equities, value factor and HY.

The fact is, there has been a ton of money made / performance driven by, for example, long Russell 2k vs short USTs / short ED, or being long equities value against short equities growth since back mid 2016 when we began seeing positioning pivot this way (and accelerating post-Trump). But the problem is that for many, much of that positive PNL was booked last year. So an upside-down out of the gates January is more than inauspiciousits an outright non-starter for risk managers in light of the performance-challenged era of the past few years. Fund willingness to stomach slow starts in January to begin the yearespecially in light of the proliferation of tight stop multi-managers with a massive institutional AUM concentration, and a pod / center book structure which exacerbates crowdingcan turn wrong-way fast when CROs become de facto heads of trading into potential deleveraging.
* * *
OKAY, SO BACK TO THE US DOLLAR. A macro trade entirely built around the framework of US domestic growth and reflation + pro-business policy mix + a sprinkling of animal spirits = long Spooz / long Russell / long value vs growth / long cyclicals vs defensives / short FY / short Eurodollar futs (largest net spec shorts ever recorded per last Fridays CFTC data) / long CNH / long copper vs short gold / short EM / short EUR / short Yen again almost singularly hinges on the Dollar.

(As an aside: believe me, I get that it seems counter-intuitive that a reflation trade would be positively correlated with the USD.but as the Trump story is about DOMESTIC growth (indiv and corporate tax cuts, fiscal spending, border adjustments and potential tariffs which restrict flow of cheap goods = PUREPLAY domestic inflationhigher Dollar is key to perpetuating the current regime.)

If we see the Dollar materially weaken from here, the entire trade is in jeopardy.
From a consensual positioning perspective which touches on this current mean-reversion dynamic in the marketplace: say this big bond rally were to gather steam into a much more punishing squeeze of the all-time UST short base (largely due to the previously mentioned lack of tolerance for beginning of year performance pain). Yields would collapse and likely drag the USD lower with it. Above trades would likely unwind as well.

Fundamentally with the USD bull-case, this is a large part of why there is SO much focus on key items like the border-adjusted tax element of the Trump policy push. A large part of the Dollars strength (beyond just the data) post- the election has been based upon this, where if the corporate tax rate were cut to say 20%, the Dollar would by economic theory have to then appreciate 20% (and of course too, an additional tax factor driving the USD bull-thesis is that a meaningful chunk of $2.5T of profits held overseas by US corporates would be repatriated following a business friendly incentive package / one-time cut to the repatriation tax to say 8-10%).

There is a view though within some verticals of the business community is that the border-adjusted system represents a very significant risk (consumer retail most notably) to their businesses / the broad economy as imports become more expensive and will create trade distortions (while the CBO itself says that the border-adjusted system would NOT reduce the trade deficit, which is a driver of its political popularity). There is so much discourse on this issue currently on this topic within the C-suite in fact some in policy circles are now saying they believe it appears increasingly likely that the full border tax adjustment (currently in the Houses version of the bill) ends up being watered down to a sort of relocation penalty (which would likely then appear in the Senate-version of the bill).

Again, this is all a hypothetical, but if some of this sense around said USD bull driver turning potentially bearish was to leak into the market, it would take some of the air out of the long USD trade--and that is where things could go off the rails. If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that bonds and duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities pair unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)this would be the theoretical path to our next pain-trade or even VaR shock.

As such, status quo positioning and thus performance is ALL about ongoing strong data trend, more than any other quarter in recent memory. And boy do we have lots of it recently.
* * *
So we have that going for us in a major waybut how long can this momentum last now that were in the hard part of the trade and the implementation challenges await on the policy side?

It need be noted that this USD reversal lower as largest risk thesis comes against the supporting reversal context of short-term tactical opportunities TRADING AGAINST REFLATION within rates, curves, EM and gold for instance (highlighted by my colleague Mark Orsley this morning), which is taking advantage of technical reversals / loss of Q4 trend momentum. And of course too, if all of global rates were to countertrend rally in unison (largely on technical), it is possible that the USD might not end up moving much at all as differentials remain static.

Nonetheless, 1) the rates move lower on positioning excess being unwound due to YTD performance pain and reversing technicals, along with 2) the potential watering down of the tax policys USD-drivers need be monitored going-forward for all portfolios due to the high likelihood of causing a similar turn lower in the US Dollar.

ITS ALL THE SAME TRADE
U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG SPX (OCTOBER TO PRESENT):
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/1.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND CFTC 5Y US TREASURY FUTURE NET SPECULATIVE POSITIONING (SHORT--INVERTED):
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/2.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND CFTC RUSSELL 2K FUTURE NET SPECULATIVE POSITIONING:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/3.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND VALUE FACTOR MARKET NEUTRAL (LONG VALUE / SHORT GROWTH) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/4.png


EQUITY HEDGE FUND RETURNS CORRELATED TO VALUE FACTOR MKT NEUTRALWHICH IS DEPENDENT UPON HIGHER USD / HIGHER US RATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/5.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND U.S. FINANCIALS SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/6.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG CYCLICAL BETA EQUITIES SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/7.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND SHORT GOLD (INVERTED) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/8.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG NIKKEI (YEN HEDGED) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/9.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND HFR EQUITY HEDGE FUND INDEX SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...7/01/01/10.png

U.S. DOLLAR AND LYXOR MACRO HEDGE FUND INDEX SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...7/01/01/11.png

I am tempted to enter on the retracement when price confirms, but had a good run. Life to trade another day.

Or what do you think Benjamin?

So following the last post have a look at this Chart !!! From my post 1126 to be CLEAR !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/1.png

And then this Chart !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...7/01/01/10.png

And to this Chart so NOW we really see the WAY the Money Flow will go on the 100% sure REVERSAL !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/2.png



ITS ALL THE SAME TRADE
U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG SPX (OCTOBER TO PRESENT):
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/1.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND CFTC 5Y US TREASURY FUTURE NET SPECULATIVE POSITIONING (SHORT--INVERTED):
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/2.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND CFTC RUSSELL 2K FUTURE NET SPECULATIVE POSITIONING:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/3.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND VALUE FACTOR MARKET NEUTRAL (LONG VALUE / SHORT GROWTH) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/4.png


EQUITY HEDGE FUND RETURNS CORRELATED TO VALUE FACTOR MKT NEUTRALWHICH IS DEPENDENT UPON HIGHER USD / HIGHER US RATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/5.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND U.S. FINANCIALS SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/6.png


U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG CYCLICAL BETA EQUITIES SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/7.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND SHORT GOLD (INVERTED) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/8.png
U.S. DOLLAR AND LONG NIKKEI (YEN HEDGED) SINCE Q4:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/9.png

Benjaminis

Sometimes it is BEST to walk away because I know that I am on a HIGH now both for my Forex Trading calls and the GREAT work by my associates here.

I will take a nice break at 4 PM EST and JUST SMELL THE ROSES.

From 6 AM EST to 4 PM EST , that has been 10 hours of great fun and excitement and now time to enjoy the moment knowing that our FUTURE is ahead of us.


Benjamin

Thank you Benjamin, agree with you. Also have some work to catch up on the thread. Will reply to your pm just now.

HEADS UP !!!

For our Gold and Silver Forex Trades in the Future !!!

Here is one of our Correlation Charts that we should start to use.

From Post 1126

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...17/01/01/8.png

Comments wayfarer or our other excellent technical wise Forex Traders ? Thanks !!!


Benjaminis

Economics 101


Hi Benjamin, please can you confirm if below is explained correct? (Not my writing, got it from the internet) I want to make sure the explanations given is correct so I can study it. I have done some research the past few days on Bonds, Stocks, treasury notes, interest rates all of the import things we have to understand, to make it more understandable how everything fits in together forming the money flow and the correlation of some instruments.

What is a Treasury bond yield?
What is the 'Treasury Yield' The return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government's debt obligations (bonds, notes and bills). Looked at another way, the Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for different lengths of time.

What is the 10 year Treasury bond?
A 10-year Treasury note pays interest at a fixed rate once every six months and pays the face value to the holder at maturity. An advantage of investing in 10-year Treasury notes, and other federal government securities, is that the interest payments are exempt from state and local income tax.

Why is the 10 year Treasury note important?
The 10-year Treasury yield is so important because it is a pricing benchmark against which the return on many other credit assets is measured. It has become a benchmark because it is denominated in US dollars and is perceived by investors as the lowest-risk, long-term, fixed-income asset in the world.

What is the Treasury market?
The Treasury market is where the United States government raises money by issuing debt. The U.S. Treasury currently markets four types of debt instruments: Treasury Bills, Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Why are Treasury bond yields important to investors of other securities?
The yields on U.S. Treasury instruments, notably 10-year Treasury bonds, are considered to be an important measuring stick for market confidence and investor appetites. This is because government bonds carry almost zero risk to principle, so all other security investments are forced to add a risk premium to entice savers. When the yield on Treasury bonds moves, all other investments tend to move in kind.
Understanding Treasury Yields
As a debt instrument, a Treasury bond's yield has an inverse relationship with its price. When there is greater demand for bonds, the price is bid up and the return -- based on the coupon rate for Treasury bonds -- is relatively lower compared to the higher price.
Investors are most likely to demand low-risk Treasury bonds when times are uncertain. This is because they are protected against absolute market loss. This causes yields to drop, which is traditionally a sign of economic weakness, and it tends to lower the return that other security issuers offer.
Risk-Free Treasuries
Like all bonds, Treasury bonds promise the return of investor principle upon maturity. This guarantee is only as good as the creditworthiness of the issuer. Since the U.S. Treasury Department has a de facto printing press in the Federal Reserve, there is almost zero chance that the government will default on its debt obligations.
Treasury Bond Yields and Interest Rates
The interest rate offerings for all deposit accounts, loans and investments compete with the yield offered on Treasuries. To see how this works, consider a scenario where you have $10,000 to save. The present yield on a Treasury bond is 5% and the interest rate offered on a similar duration corporate bond (or CD, or expected return on an equity, etc.) is also 5%.
In this scenario, you should always choose the Treasury bond because it's safer. Other issuers know this, so they increase their return (or expected return) as a premium on the additional risk that investors have to assume to make a purchase.

How to Use Bonds to Predict the Economy
Bonds' powerful relationship to the economy means you can also use them for forecasting. That's because bond yields tell you what investors think the economy will do. Normally, the yields on long-term notes are higher, because investors require more return in exchange for tying up their money for a longer time. In this case, the yield curve slopes up when looked at from left to right.

An inverted yield curve tells you that the economy is about to go into recession. That's when the yields on short-duration Treasury bills, like the one-month, six-month or one-year notes, are higher than the yields on long-term ones like 10-year or 30-year Treasury bonds.

That tells you that short-term investors demand a higher interest rate, and more return on their investment, than long-term investors. Why? Because they believe a recession will happen sooner rather than later.

Understanding Bonds and Stocks
Bonds are loans you make to a corporation or government. The interest payments stay the same for the life of the loan. You receive the principal at the end if the company doesn't default. S&P ratings tell you how likely that is.
The bond's value changes over time. That only matters if you want to sell it on the secondary market.
Bond traders compare its return, called its yield, to that of other bonds. Those with low-interest rates, or poor S&P ratings, are worth less than higher-yielding bonds.

Stocks are a share of the ownership of the company. Their value depends on corporate earnings. Corporations release their earnings reports each quarter.
The stock's value also changes daily. That depends on traders' estimates of future earnings compared to the competition.

The prices of bonds and stocks move in the opposite directions. When stocks go up in value, bonds go down. That's because stocks do well when the economy is booming. Consumers are buying, and companies receive higher earnings thanks to higher demand. Investors want to take advantage of higher stock prices, so they sell their bonds and buy stocks. Conversely, when the economy slows, consumers buy less, corporate profits fall, and stock prices will dip.

That's when investors want the regular interest payments guaranteed by bonds.
But sometimes both stocks and bonds go up in value at the same time. That happens when there is too much money, or liquidity, chasing too few investments, as is the case at the top of a market. It could also be the case when some investors are optimistic about the economy's future, and buying stocks, while others are pessimistic and buying bonds.
There are also times when stock and bonds both fall. That's when investors are in a panic and are selling everything. During those times, you might see gold prices go up.

How the Federal Reserve Uses Bonds to Boost the Stock Market
The Federal Reserve controls interest rates through its open market operations. When the Fed wants interest rates to fall, it buys U.S. Treasuries. That's the same as increasing demand for the nation's bonds, which makes their values rise.

As with all bonds, when the value rises, interest rates fall.
Lower interest rates put upward pressure on stock prices for two reasons.

First, bond buyers will now get a lower interest rate and therefore return, on their purchases. That forces them to consider buying higher-risk stocks to get a better return.

Second, lower interest rates make borrowing less expensive. That helps companies who want to expand. It assists homebuyers to afford larger houses. It also helps consumers who desire cars, furniture, and more education. As a result, low-interest rates boost economic growth. That leads to higher corporate earnings and higher stock prices.

Low interest rates on bonds is like more money for borrowers.

Bonds affect the U.S. economy by determining interest rates. This affects the amount of liquidity. This determines how easy or difficult it is to buy things on credit, take out loans for cars, houses or education, and expand businesses. In other words, bonds affect everything in the economy. Here's how.
Treasury bonds impact the economy by providing extra spending money for the government and consumers.
This is because Treasury bonds are essentially a loan to the government that is usually purchased by domestic consumers.
However, for a variety of reasons, foreign governments have been purchasing a larger percentage of Treasury bonds, in effect providing the U.S. government with a loan. This allows the government to spend more, which stimulates the economy.

Who Owns the U.S. Debt?
Treasury bonds also help the consumer. When there is a great demand for bonds, it lowers the interest rate because the U.S. government doesn’t have to offer as much to attract buyers. Lower interest rates on bonds means lower interest rates on mortgages. This allows homeowners to afford more expensive homes.

How Do Treasury Notes Affect Interest Rates?
Most important, bonds affect mortgage interest rates. Bond investors can choose among all the different types of bonds, as well as mortgages sold on the secondary market.
They are constantly comparing the risk vs reward offered by interest rates.
Mortgages are riskier than many other types of bonds because they are the longest duration, usually 15 or 30 years. Therefore, investors generally compare them to long-term Treasuries, such as 10-year Treasury notes or 30-year Treasury bonds.

Market Correlations 101: Stocks, Bonds & Forex

Soraya Biahakue FXStreet

Global financial markets maintain close relationships as international trade and commerce help bring us together in one world economy. Just as the effects of the strengthening economy in Brazil can be seen in Argentina, the effects of a credit downgrade in Greece or Ireland can be felt in the US. Within one nation, these inter-market relationships are especially important.

Stocks & Bonds: On a day to day basis, investors constantly make the same decision; stocks or bonds? Each and every investor evaluates market and economic conditions, and places their capital in the investment vehicle that appears to offer the best return for the risk taken, ultimately driven by the two most powerful emotions; fear and greed. When times are good with high levels of employment, strong corporate earnings, and rising consumer prices, stocks tend to rise. Monies are withdrawn from savings accounts with the hopes of capturing superior returns as innovation leads equity markets to new lofty heights. Bonds fall out of favor and are forced to offer higher yields in order to compete with the euphoric effects of new 52-week highs only stocks can provide. In the glorious days of 2007 as the Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average) approached 14,000 the U.S. 10-year treasury bonds offered yields in excess of 5.00%.

Conversely as stock prices suffered extensive losses reaching multi-decade lows in 2008, feelings of greed quickly shifted to fear as the Dow touched lows below 7,000, the 10-year bond yields sank to levels nearly touching the 2.00% threshold. As bond yields rise, the actual price of the bond falls as the cost to pay this yield makes the bond less valuable, which is demonstrated in the following example: An investor purchases a Treasury bond offering a 3% yield, issued at $1,000 parity. The economy, stocks, and bond (yields) subsequently rise. New bond issues that now offer 5%, make those 3% bonds less attractive and therefore less valuable in the eyes of the investor.

Stocks & the Dollar: The USD and Dow have enjoyed positive and negative correlations, at times moving in the same or opposite directions. Over the past few years under a low interest rate environment an opposite or negative correlation has persisted. As the USD tends to move under the anticipation of higher or lower interest rates, positive economic data leads the market to believe the FED (Federal Reserve) is more likely to raise interest rates, and it is therefore logical to expect USD strength. The opposite also holds true; negative economic data may lead investors to believe the FED is less likely to raise rates or perhaps even lower borrowing costs which in turn may result in a weaker USD.

However as interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy, any (economic) news event that implies the FED is less likely to raise interest rates will ultimately benefit businesses as lower borrowing costs make it easier (less expensive) to borrow and invest capital as this climate also encourages consumers to return to the housing market, seek out financing, and put money to work within the economy. Furthermore, low rates make savings accounts and fixed income products (that typically move with interest rates) less attractive, all of which ultimately benefits corporate earnings and their respective stock prices, as investment capital finds its way into more speculative vehicles such as stocks, real estate, (commodities at times), and innovative start-up businesses.
With that said, this opposite relationship between the DOW and USD did not always exist. In the years past under high interest rates, stock prices and the USD did enjoy a positive correlation as foreign investment capital that finds its way into US businesses, US stocks, and ultimately the USD. Therefore when searching for the relationship between stock prices and their respective currency (in this case the USD), it is important to make note of the current interest rate environment.

USD & 10-year Govt Bond: The bond market possibly enjoys the closest relationship with its respective currency as both are closely linked to current interest rates. During prosperous economic conditions as consumer prices rise, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates also increases. To compete with rising stock prices the bond market (in order to stay competitive) will also offer higher yields. The following chart illustrates that despite a long-term trend to the downside, the USD (USD/CHF) behaves in similar fashion to the 10-year (US Treasury) bond market. At the height of the economic boom in 2007, the 10-year bond offered yields in excess of 5.00% while the USD/CHF tested levels above 1.30. As stock prices reached their ultimate bottoms in the latter days of 2008, the 10-year bond yields touched lows near 2.00% as the USD/CHF also reached the bottom of its near-term cycle dropping to levels near 2.50. Ultimately both the bond market (yield) and the USD move in anticipation of higher / lower interest rates, watching fundamental data, searching for signs of a change in economic conditions

All Thanks Go To TooSlow who posted this on his Thread.

 

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar240135_1.gif TooSlow
2. Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 7,117 Posts

What's the most most important thing a trader needs to know?

Answer: The most important skill you
have in trading is knowing exactly what
to do after a loss. What you do
next is what makes you great.

Let me take you through a little
progression.

If you know how to trade, you love it!
If you love trading, you know that losses
happen.

If your trade loses, you might think
it happened because you were wrong or
you made a mistake, or you just didn't
know what you were doing.

I have good news for you. None of that is true.
You were not wrong. You did not make a
mistake, nor did you fail to understand
what the market was doing.

When your trade loses, it's because the market's
timing was not there for you. Not only were
you not wrong to stop out of the trade, you
were exactly right!

What you do next is what defines you
as a trader.

Anyone can trade. Anyone can learn a strategy
and open and close a trade. What separates the
winners from the losers is what the trader does
after a loss.

- Jennifer Thornburg

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3 & Highest Open/Lowest Open Trade

KeepCalmfx

The information is accurate. Over the weekend I will print it out and study it myself. We are doing good. Thanks for all your efforts today. If you have a specific question on this material then please ask me. Thank You !!!


Benjaminis

KeepCalmfx

The commentary is accurate and you are understanding more now since this material is discussed here often and I also link analysts that go even deeper than the writer that you located.

Thanks for the effort in doing your own research as that is always the best way to learn, which is how I learned my Forex Business !!!


Benjaminis

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1484143102.php

Snippet:
Gold Today –New York closed at $1,187.20 on the 10th January after closing at $1,182.50 on the 9th January.London opened again at $1,190.40 today.


Overall the dollar is stronger against global currencies today. Before London’s opening:
- The $: € was stronger at $1.0554: €1 from $1.0611: €1 yesterday.
- The Dollar index was stronger at 102.09 from 101.66 yesterday.
- The Yen was weaker at 116.05: $1 from yesterday’s 115.40 against the dollar.
- The Yuan was stronger at 6.9225: $1, from 6.9244: $1, yesterday.
- The Pound Sterling was slightly stronger at $1.2156: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2150: £1.


Yuan Gold Fix

Trade Date

Contract

Benchmark Price AM 1 gm

Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
2017 1 11
2016 1 10
2016 12 9

SHAU

SHAU

SHAU

/

267.22

265.27

/

268.41

265.71

$ equivalent 1oz @ $1: 6.9225
$1: 6.9244

$1: 6.9329

/

$1,200.65

$1,191.56

/

$1,205.99

$1,193.53

Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]

If Shanghai is leading the way for the gold price, we would expect London and New York to rise too. Consequently, the gold price needs to move to $1,200 for it to be in line with Shanghai now.

Shanghai on Tuesday was $13 higher than the close of New York. This morning London opened only $10.59 lower than yesterday’s Shanghai closing. And this strength in gold is happening while the dollar is rising and the Yuan slipping slightly.

Meanwhile the People’s Bank of China has reported a fall in its gold reserves of in December by 20.98 tonnes. Is this a change in direction of the PBoC? We don’t accept that for a second. The Chinese authorities are rarely clear on such subjects and often don’t give a full picture of their situation, as it is not in their interests to do so. So this figure could be some sort of window dressing for our benefit. We know they use two agencies to hold gold on their behalf until it suits them to take the gold into reserves. They could easily have handed it back to them on a temporary basis. What we do know is that it is illegal to export gold from China. We also know that the SGE itself can hold gold and does not disclose it.

LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price setting was at $1,187.55 this morningagainst yesterday’s $1,183.20.

The gold price in the euro was set higher at €1,128.31 after Friday’s €1,117.60 as the dollar strengthened.

Ahead of the opening of New Yorkthe gold price was trading at $1,188.15 and in the euro at €1,131.46. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $16.77.

Silver Today –Silver closed at $16.79 at New York’s close yesterday from $16.57 on the 9th January.


Gold (very short-term) The gold price will have a positive bias, in New York today.

Silver (very short-term) The silver price will have a positive bias, in New York today.

Price Drivers
We decided to look at the gold market through the eyes of a non-professional at the gold market. It quickly became clear just how easy it was to be informed in a way that distorted the true picture and confuse investors.

For instance, when you hear that gold rose x% in sterling or y% in the dollar, that ignores the fact that the gold market is a global market where prices reflect the global market demand and supply eventually.

We would prefer to see, “the dollar fell against gold, or sterling fell against gold”, a reflection of currency performance, not gold’s performance.

As you have read in these reports the gold price is rising in all currencies at the moment, with both London and New York trying to catch up to Shanghai prices. New York and London have not moved up because of what Prime Minister May said, but that gold prices in sterling rose because of the pound’s fall.

No event in the U.S. has caused gold to move up this week. It has moved up because of global demand and supply factors. In China demand for gold is robust. In the U.S. there was a very big sale [nearly 9 tonnes] of gold in one day earlier this week, so if the gold price was driven by U.S. factors alone, the gold price would have fallen. It didn’t, it rose!

After all gold is a currency, it is both an asset and cash, globally.

Relevant factors to the global gold price must not be local factors, unless they globally affect the gold price. Most that are attributed to moving the gold price just aren’t.

That’s why understanding just where gold’s pricing power lies is so important.
That’s why understanding currencies is so critical to understanding the gold price.

In our latest issue of the Gold Forecaster we discuss this in much more detail. [subscribe: www.GoldForecaster.com ]


Gold ETFs – Yesterday, in New York, there were no sales from the SPDR gold ETF or any from the Gold Trust, leaving their respective holdings at 804.996 tonnes and 198.30 tonnes.


As we said in an earlier report, “Substantial sales of gold on a daily basis are needed for New York to control the gold price”.

Since January 4th this year, 202.416 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust. We remain at almost at half the level accumulated in 2016.
Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1484162915.php


Snippet:
By Dave Kranzler

The stock market shot up like a Roman candle for idiotic reasons after the election. The candle may have reached its apex when the Dow hit 19,999.67 last week. As I stated in my Short Sellers Journal, I was stunned that bank traders were unable to push the index up to the holy grail number of 20,000.

Of course, in and of itself, the Dow 20k watch was moronic. Thirty stocks do not an economic system make. Sorry Fox, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN etc.

I also stated in my Short Sellers Journal, in the issue two weeks ago, and long before Zerohedge posted the comment from some guy named DeMark who predicted the Dow would never hit 20k, that 20k might not happen. In fact, I titled the issue, Is Dow 20,000 Now Out Of Reach?

The Dow 20,000 financial media promotion has bordered on vulgar. Fox Business (which I keep on mute at all times) kept a Dow 20,000 watch banner at the bottom of its broadcast during the entire trading day for the last 2 weeks of 2016. It disappeared last week. In the context of the entire stock market and the U.S. economy, its meaningless for the Dow to hit 20k other than as a powerful propaganda tool.

The housing market is one of the most important segments of the economy. The DJ Home Construction Index is down 9.7% today from its 52-week high in July. Retail spending may be even more critical to generating GDP than housing. The XRT retail ETF is down 9% from hits 52-week on December 8th. This stock index has literally tanked during a period of time that is supposed to be the best seasonal period of the year for retail sales. Theres a serious message there. THATS where the rubber meets the road not from meaningless platitudes and soundbytes from a President-elect.

Essentially Trump promised on election night to spend trillions and cut taxes deeply and to pay for those based on borrowing trillions. These are policy proposals that are destined to fail from the moment the words left Trumps mouth. But the stock market went nuts to the upside, culminating in what I would argue based on using apples to apples accounting comparisons the most overvalued U.S. stock market in history. Perhaps in the modern era only the Weimar German and Zimbabwe stock markets were more overvalued. Stay tuned because I am very confident that the Fed is not done printing trillions.
This is not the kind of stock chart in which I would want to be invested:
https://i1.wp.com/investmentresearch...size=604%2C280


Yes of course this stock market could break up or down. But since Christmas, every attempted assault on 20k has been rejected. And the Dow opens higher every morning only to sell off every afternoon into the close. Monday was a perfect example.


Today (Tuesday, January 11) it looked the Dow was going to make another assault on 20k. But during Trumps highly anticipated press conference, the Dow sold down hard from 19,970 to 19,840. That is a preview of what is likely coming in the months ahead, as the U.S. economic fundamentals continue deteriorate, notwithstanding the barrage of economic fake news coming from the Government and certain industry pimp associations.

https://dailyreckoning.com/nomi-prin...y+Reckoning%29

Snippet:
Nomi Prins: More Corporate Defaults, Central Bank Desperation in 2017

Nomi Prins joined Yahoo Finance and The Final Round’s Jen Rogers to discuss the events facing 2017 – including increased corporate defaults, market volatility and the impact of oil under Rex Tillerson at the U.S State Department.

When posed the question about economic growth and the incoming Trump administration Prins did not mince words saying, “Ultimately what is going to happen is he’s not going to be able to push a “mega fiscal budget” through a Republican Congress, nor will he try. Nor will he be able to sustain the kind of growth that he has promised. There may be a PR element, but in terms of actual conversions and the practical realities of the economy, that was weak to begin with for so many people, that’s not going to be a reality. That is going to take its toll on not just our stock market, but will add uncertainty into the rest of the world that is looking at these expectations.”
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...aults-2017.jpg
Nomi Prins is the best selling author of All the Presidents’ Bankers and is currently working on her latest book, The Artisans of Money. Prins is a former Managing Director at Goldman Sachs and worked at an array of the most influential Wall Street banks. She continues to be a strong advocate for a modern Glass-Steagall Act and breaking up big bank institutions that pose a threat to the global economy.

When asked about the outlook for the Fed, growth projections, and whether the U.S central bank will have to get ahead of inflation she responded, “We have had a price inflation, in terms of the cost of living, but we haven’t had inflation in terms of the areas that the Fed actually measures. What was interesting about when the Federal Reserve raised rates in December, which had been done a year earlier in December as well, was that they projected last year (after examining what they’re looking at for forecasts based in growth and the economy) four rate hikes, we got one. This year they have only projected three. In effect the status on their own projections is actually more accommodative than it was the year before.”

“In the year before the markets opened up in January with a lot of falls. That was when we saw other central banks around the world, in particular the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, come in and reduce their rates to equate all of the costs of money globally back at zero. This was done to balance against the Fed’s hike.”
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...Markets-Up.jpg
Switching from central bank policy to advising people to remove themselves from financial institutions Prins’ remarked, “ (People must be prepared) In the event of a separate financial crisis of any kind. There are issues that have still not been cleaned up in the financial sector, that is built on codependency between banks, and we could see a lot more of what has happened in Cyprus and Venezuela come into core markets. This would require banks to “batten down the hatches” on the liquidity they give to their customers, particularly if they are concerned about liquidity or credit problems.

“Corporate defaults are rising and occurring in the markets to which they lend. In that event, it is better to have more cash out of accounts that are effectively receiving zero interest rates, or close to zero, anyways. They could use that to buy hard assets, to pay down certain debts and to maintain as more liquid as individuals in terms of money on hand, as opposed to money in a bank.”
The Yahoo Finance host then asked why she saw the trend of corporate defaults continuing in 2017, “First, last year was a bad year. It was 40% worse than it had been the year before. So we are inching up toward the number of medium and longer term corporate defaults that we had during the worst year of the crisis.”

She went on to remark, “that will continue, not least because of where oil prices are. Oil streams from a lot of what caused, and is still causing, some of these defaults. In the instance that Rex Tillerson is to become Secretary of State, he holds a policy to drill and increase supply. That is not necessarily going to impact the price of oil, which may continue to hurt that segment of the market, and other outlying sectors that rely on corporate defaults.”
“The trajectory for 2017 is likely to continue, and if the U.S dollar stays the strong and rates stay where they are, where the Fed doesn’t increase interest rates – we will be looking at international defaults. These international corporate defaults have also been increasing, while countries have to pay higher costs of their dollars.”

To catch the full interview with Nomi Prins on Yahoo Finance covering greater corporate defaults in store for 2017 and what is on her financial road map, Click Here.
Regards,
Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for the Daily Reckoning


Ed. Note: Sign up for a FREE subscription toThe Daily Reckoning, and you’ll receive in depth insights for specific profit driven opportunities. By taking advantage now, you’re ensuring that you’ll be set up for updates and issues in the future. It’s FREE.
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https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...ro-225x125.png


https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...ro-225x125.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29



Snippet:
China is so concerned about the ongoing surge in capital outflows that its forex regulator, SAFE, has taken the unprecedented step of ordering banks to keep its instructions about curbing capital outflows secret and also to ensure that research analysts do not publish any negative views about the yuan according to Reuters. According to bankers from local and foreign banks, both demands are seen as an attempt by the authorities to prevent alarm that could trigger further declines in the yuan.

With the yuan losing 6% of its value against the dollar last year as a result of hundreds of billions in official outflows (and as much as $1.1 trillion in unofficial since August 2015 according to Goldman calculations), Beijing has unleashed a flurry of restrictive measures on capital outflows from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), including setting limits on banks' currency volumes in some cities or provinces and requiring approval for ever smaller transactions. Overnight, the PBOC even unveiled probed into bitcoin exchanges, sending the digital currency plunging over 20%.

Reuters reports that SAFE, which is part of the People's Bank of China, is insisting, orally, that dozens of bank don't reveal its role in such restrictions, which was damaging their relationships with clients since they were unable to explain why they were turning away business. SAFE's reticence began at least as far back as August, when its Shanghai branch called at least 20 of the major foreign and domestic banks operating in the city to a meeting with the regional heads of several SAFE departments.

A representative from an international bank attending the meeting said there were no written instructions, but a high-ranking SAFE official told them explicitly what was expected of them.


"You must control your forex deficit, but you can't say that SAFE is controlling capital outflows," the official told the bankers. The banks were told to "manage sentiment" to prevent public panic, the banker said, and the banks' research analysts should not broadcast any negative views on the yuan.
As a reminder, while in the US, the real Fake News is anything having to do with relations between Trump and Russia; in China fake news mostly focus on the economy and the currency (as well as virtually everything else).

"They told us not to publish bad house views - analyst house views - on the yuan", the person said. A second banker on the forex team of an international bank said his bank had received the same instructions.

Where a bank has exceeded the SAFE-set limits for forex transactions in a month, they have to turn business away, but are unable to explain the real reason why, several bankers complained. "We're not going to tell our customers that (our forex business) has stopped; we just have to find ways to turn down the business we're not allowed to do," said a banker at Chinese Commercial Bank Ping An who had received SAFE instructions from seniors.

"It's not good for client relationships," he added, explaining that he had told his clients to go to other banks.

Additionally, SAFE had told banks to interview clients to make sure the forex deals were not for fake transactions, or else face punishment, according to two bankers at separate listed banks. In response to those orders, one of the banks sent an internal notice to employees, seen by Reuters, to alert them to SAFE's requirements, explaining that the regulator's penalties could include "cancelling business qualifications" needed for the lender to conduct forex business.

The notice passed on SAFE's instructions that staff should not mention the regulator, i.e., it was to be kept secret.

"Please do not reply to clients using wording such as SAFE controls, or SAFE doesnt allow or strictly controls FX purchases," it read. Instead, they should adhere to the line provided by SAFE, that the purpose of the changes was to "promote healthy development of outbound direct investment" and "crack down on fake deals", the notice added.
* * *

While China's foreign exchange reserves fell to $3.05 trillion in November from $3.3 trillion in the first 11 months of 2016, and many traders are betting there will be further outflows as U.S. interest rates rises make dollar assets more attractive, SAFE wants banks to advise clients to buy yuan and sell dollars, the international bank representative said, a play that is likely to lose clients money. "If a person doesn't ave this need, how am I supposed to encourage it?" the banker said.

At the same time, SAFE is quietly choking programmes designed to open overseas markets to Chinese investors. Even where institutional investors have been granted quotas to invest overseas, they are finding it increasingly difficult to exchange yuan into another currency.
"SAFE would tell you that you still need to stand in the queue, and the waiting period is 'uncertain'," said an executive at Shanghai-based China equity fund house Greenwoods. An investment program set up so global funds can raise Chinese cash to invest overseas has ground to a halt without explanation. "The application process seems to be in a state of suspension," Michael Lu, managing director of Greater China Business Development of Dutch money manager Robeco told reporters in November.
* * *

In short, China has implemented full blown capital controls, without wanting its population to know it has done so, which is understandable: fear of the unknown would lead to panic, would lead to more selling, and more panic and so on. But what we find delightfully ironic is that China is cracking down on the internationalization of its currency, just months after the IMF made the Yuan a fully "respected" member of the SDR - a token of how "liberalized" the currency is. As usual, trust Christine Lagarde to get it dead wrong.