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AHA's Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 3, 2006 11:24am Sep 3, 2006 11:24am
Hello everyone, here I am!

I have been trying straddling news and different systems in the past 8 monthes. My account had been drew down to 50% in the crazy first two months, then recover to 70% and then down to 60% again. I think my biggest problem right now is I couldn't reach a zen-like state. Most of the time I trade too much because of greed, sometimes I avoid trades or close trades too early because of fear, sometimes I am just not disciplined enough, jumped into a trade without seeing a good setup.

But, what I have learnt is important. I know if I do it right, I can be sustainably profitable (I had those moments, ). I know that I need to cherry pick my trade, not to trade every setup I see. I know straddling news can be very profitable but also very risky, so money management rule also applies here. I know I can't be a chartwatcher so I have to trade 1H or higher time frame. I know I need to anticipate a setup to form and prepare my strategy before it forms.

But what you know and what you do are two totally different things.

So here I am, doing myself a favor, starting this journal. Hopefully I will be busy in writing journals instead of trading. I was thinking to close this thread so I only see my trade here, but on second thought, some feedback can be very helpful.

Please fasten your seat belt, it's going to be a bumpy ride. (I hope not, but I guess I can't control that, can I?)

Emotional
aha
Target: Trading naked.
  • #2
  • Edited 12:01pm Sep 3, 2006 11:25am | Edited 12:01pm
I have tried the following systems: sidus, sidus-bago, base 150 and base 365, akuma99 CCI "not so squeezy". The first two did not work for me, maybe because I didn't get them at the time. Base 150 and Base 365 were pretty good, high successful rate, but you have to wait for the price cross the EMA150/365 to open the trade, need some patience. Akuma99's system is my favorite right now. It just naturally makes sense to me. But the choice of the SMA 100 seems not to be a little irrelevant to the rest of the system, in most of the time the price doesn't seem to react to it.

Now I am testing Akuma99's system. I have confidence in it, but I have to cherry pick the trade. Let's see how it goes.

aha
Target: Trading naked.
  • #3
  • Sep 3, 2006 11:26am Sep 3, 2006 11:26am
You have a nice nick! Aha
Yacob I dive the market without Fear.
  • #4
  • Sep 3, 2006 12:03pm Sep 3, 2006 12:03pm
Thanks, Yacob. Wecome to my journal!

aha
Target: Trading naked.
  • #5
  • Sep 3, 2006 1:13pm Sep 3, 2006 1:13pm
I am asking Akuma99 to use his journal format as a template and I will change the format if he disagree. But here we go.



This is a trade I place on Friday. It 's not a perfect setup, , which is exactly why I am starting this journal -- to get more discipline.



TRADE TYPE: TRENDING




Sep 01 | LONG | USD/JPY @ 117.15 | SL: 116.81 | TP: 117.41

Trend
The rainbow MMA shows we are in a up trend with it well spread out and sloping in H1/H4. In D1/W1 the up trend is initiating. We are looking for long triggers.

Momentum
On D1 H4 the momentum is still bullish. Looking for long trades

Trigger
This is what I did wrong. There is no trigger here!! Sure the CCI squeeze indicator is in blue zone and the price is at the confluence area of lower BB, SMA 100, and Daily Pivot S1, but still, I should have waited for a trigger. Now the price may continue downwards because of the H1 momentum. This trade doesn't look good. Should have stacked odds on my side.

Resistance/Support
The support is at the confluence area of lower BB, SMA 100, daily pivot S1. If the price move upward, the only resistance is the daily pivot.


Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop loss is at 116.95. If the confluence support is strong enough the price shouldn't come down to here. But it's weekend and OANDA has a 10 pips spread. Anyway I am not going to move my SL.

My profit target right now is set at 4 pips below yesterday's high at 117.45. It was tested three times on Friday. When the trade survives the testing of the support, and reach the profit target I will close half of the trade, move SL to +10 and let the rest half run toward 1.618 fibo line at 117.65-70 area.

Conclusion
Bad trade.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #6
  • Sep 3, 2006 2:09pm Sep 3, 2006 2:09pm
Here is another one. Same mistake!


TRADE TYPE: TRENDING

Sep 01 | SHORT | EUR/GBP @ 0.6735 | SL: 0.6756 | TP: 0.6713

Trend
The rainbow MMA shows we are in a down trend in H1/H4/D1. We are looking for short triggers.

Momentum
On D1 H4 the momentum is still bullish. Looking for short trades

Trigger
No trigger!!

Resistance/Support

Resistance: Upper BB, SMA 100 and daily R1 not far away.
Support: Daily Pivot.

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop loss is at 0.6752, 6 pips higer than yesterday's high. Upper BB, SMA 100 and daily R1 should protect it.

Profit target is the low BB at 0.6720, will close half and BE and let the rest run toward 0.6713, about 3 pips higher than the 1.618 extension target.

Conclusion
Bad trade.<!-- / message --><!-- attachments -->
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #7
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:29pm Sep 3, 2006 7:29pm
Bad trade indeed, SL is taken off.

-34 pips

Quoting aha
Sep 01 | LONG | USD/JPY @ 117.15 | SL: 116.81 | TP: 117.41




Conclusion
Bad trade.
Target: Trading naked.
  • #8
  • Edited 8:20am Sep 4, 2006 7:38am | Edited 8:20am

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING


Sep 04| SHORT | USD/CAD @ 1.1060 | SL: 1.1079 | TP: 1.1020


Trend

Down trend

Momentum
Bearish on D1 H4, Bullish on H1 W1. Looking for short trades

Trigger
DHLC bar at the confluence area of yesterday's high, SMA 100, Daily R3, high BB.

Resistance/Support

Resistance: Upper BB, SMA 100 and daily R3, yesterday's high.
Support: up trend line, daily pivot.

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop loss is 5 pips higer than yesterday's high. Upper BB, SMA 100 and daily R3 should protect it.

Profit target is the low BB at 1.1042, will close half and BE and let the rest run toward 1.1020, about 5 pips higher than the 1.618 extension target.

Conclusion
Seems to have done everything right. But to be on safe side, maybe should wait for the trend line break.
<!-- / message --><!-- attachments -->
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #9
  • Sep 4, 2006 8:30am Sep 4, 2006 8:30am
Aha or anyone else for that matter,
I apoligze for being off topic, but was hoping for help on how you attached your chart and how you made sure it was 300x300 or less.

I like how you are able to see the chart in your post!

Thanks in advance,
MJ
  • #10
  • Sep 4, 2006 9:05am Sep 4, 2006 9:05am
I am using meta trader 4 for charting. I just need to right click on the chart and save it as a picture, it will prompt me to select the chart size.

Meta trader 4 is free, you may google and download it (I don't think I can post a link in FF yet).


Quoting mj_bolt
Aha or anyone else for that matter,
I apoligze for being off topic, but was hoping for help on how you attached your chart and how you made sure it was 300x300 or less.

I like how you are able to see the chart in your post!

Thanks in advance,
MJ
Target: Trading naked.
  • #11
  • Sep 4, 2006 11:53am Sep 4, 2006 11:53am
Another loser. - 21 pips

Quoting aha
Here is another one. Same mistake!

Sep 01 | SHORT | EUR/GBP @ 0.6735 | SL: 0.6756 | TP: 0.6713







Conclusion
Bad trade.<!-- / message --><!-- attachments -->
Target: Trading naked.
  • #12
  • Sep 4, 2006 1:27pm Sep 4, 2006 1:27pm
Thanks for the help Aha!
  • #13
  • Sep 8, 2006 5:44am Sep 8, 2006 5:44am

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING

Sep 08 | LONG | EUR/GBP @ 0.6795 | SL: 0.6775 | TP: 0.6803/0.6835

Trend
Uptrend

Momentum
Up

Trigger
EMA 5/12 Cross, RSI cross 50, 18/28 EMA close, (bago signal)
Price close higher than daily pivot, pin bar off 0.5 fibo.

Resistance/Support

Resistance: daily R1 and trend line around 6803
Support: Daily Pivot. 0.618, 0.5 fibo

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop loss is at 0.6775, below 0.382 fibo and S1.

Profit target is 1.618 fibo line at 6835, will close half at 6803
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #14
  • Sep 9, 2006 3:37pm Sep 9, 2006 3:37pm
Please feel free to comment if you see something is missing.

Double top pattern, price break down, meet the long term trend line. 61.8 fibo ahead.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #15
  • Sep 9, 2006 4:00pm Sep 9, 2006 4:00pm
Price at the long term trend line and fibo confluence area.

Will it retrace to retest the double top pattern bottom?

Price target about 1.8409. calculated by the height of the pattern and the fibo extension.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #16
  • Sep 9, 2006 8:22pm Sep 9, 2006 8:22pm
At lower time frame the price seems to have closed below the trendline and the confluence area. Does that mean that the price will drop like a rock on Sunday afternoon? Maybe I didn't draw the trendline accurately. the trend line

A trendline or a confluence area become important only when most of the traders (especially those big traders) see it and use it.

Note that the price did retest the former support for the double top pattern. Should have short there!

Todo: will short, but will wait for a confirmation or a retracement.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #17
  • Sep 9, 2006 8:46pm Sep 9, 2006 8:46pm
A DHLC on Weekly, pressure is on downside.

Price sits on the long term trend line and withdraw from the 61.8 fibo, indicates the support below.

The purple line is the price pivot line since April, should be a resistance line. The 38.2 fibo is the next resistance if price retraces.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #18
  • Sep 9, 2006 9:00pm Sep 9, 2006 9:00pm
Price did break the long term trend line and may retest it (as well as the 38.2 fibo) as resistance

Wait for an entry signal to short, First target is 61.8 fibo
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #19
  • Sep 9, 2006 10:40pm Sep 9, 2006 10:40pm
One thing I did not notice when I posted #16 was the positive divergence happening on GBPUSD hourly.

The price was making lower lows but the MACD is making higher lows, which is a sign of trend reversal.

The price pattern is a falling wedge, the upper and lower trend line are contracting. If the upper trend line is broken and with high volume to confirm, the trend will reverse at least in short term. Note that the price may revisit the upper trend line to test the support after the break.

From the slop of the trend lines it's hard to believe the trend is reversing. But maybe it's a sign that the price will revisit the bottom of the double top pattern. Let's see how it will play out.





Quoting aha
At lower time frame the price seems to have closed below the trendline and the confluence area. Does that mean that the price will drop like a rock on Sunday afternoon? Maybe I didn't draw the trendline accurately. the trend line

A trendline or a confluence area become important only when most of the traders (especially those big traders) see it and use it.

Note that the price did retest the former support for the double top pattern. Should have short there!

Todo: will short, but will wait for a confirmation or a retracement.
Attached Image
Target: Trading naked.
  • #20
  • Sep 11, 2006 10:18am Sep 11, 2006 10:18am
I closed trade in the weekend at 0.6785 because bago system generated a short signal. It turns out to be a mistake.

-10pips




Quoting aha

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING


Sep 08 | LONG | EUR/GBP @ 0.6795 | SL: 0.6775 | TP: 0.6803/0.6835


Trend

Uptrend

Momentum
Up

Trigger
EMA 5/12 Cross, RSI cross 50, 18/28 EMA close, (bago signal)
Price close higher than daily pivot, pin bar off 0.5 fibo.

Resistance/Support

Resistance: daily R1 and trend line around 6803
Support: Daily Pivot. 0.618, 0.5 fibo

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop loss is at 0.6775, below 0.382 fibo and S1.

Profit target is 1.618 fibo line at 6835, will close half at 6803
Target: Trading naked.
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