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Trader Dale - daily trading levels

  • #3,381
  • Jan 11, 2017 11:17am Jan 11, 2017 11:17am
a question for the guys with futures info, assuming you can see the number of contracts traded at the swing extremes, would you say the big boys are giving the markets a wide berth at the moment, and if so would you suggest that these swing points should be ignored when looking at where we can expect professional interest?
That would be my feeling but without seeing the info it's difficult to say
  • #3,382
  • Jan 11, 2017 11:44am Jan 11, 2017 11:44am
High volume areas.

1.0558 - Forex level
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  • #3,383
  • Jan 11, 2017 11:45am Jan 11, 2017 11:45am
Quoting ziggy
a question for the guys with futures info, assuming you can see the number of contracts traded at the swing extremes, would you say the big boys are giving the markets a wide berth at the moment, and if so would you suggest that these swing points should be ignored when looking at where we can expect professional interest? That would be my feeling but without seeing the info it's difficult to say
I can see much more contracts on the EURUSD low, USDCAD high, USDJPY high. The other sides have poor numbers. Not sure if I am answering your question, just saying what I see
  • #3,384
  • Jan 11, 2017 11:58am Jan 11, 2017 11:58am
thanks guys, I suppose the real question is are the numbers of contracts traded significantly different from the norm, a real hard one to answer, when I did use this data you could sometimes see a massive quantity of contracts traded around the swings, much greater than the norm - and this pretty much guaranteed the next visit would be repelled. Other times there would be big swings but little by way of contracts traded that shifted the market a long way - and of course those swing points were traded straight through on the next visit. Was just thinking if the volume clusters should be taken as usual when looking for fresh levels, or if they could be largely ignored......... I guess the extremes are now so far apart that the latest move away has to be considered a significant location. I'll look back in the morning to see how it all settled down fascinating trying to unravel how the market works
  • #3,385
  • Edited 12:17pm Jan 11, 2017 12:00pm | Edited 12:17pm
Wow. Crazy volatility today. This is why I never trade the news.

Another chart...
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  • #3,386
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:23pm Jan 11, 2017 12:23pm
Quoting Trader-Dale
It was OK not to trade usd/cad because of the data. As Ziggy says CAD is quite dependant on oil. Otherwise this macro isn't that much high impact and sometimes I trade during its release. I didn't go AUD long because I considered it already tested.
Already tested, I donīt really know where.
  • #3,387
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:36pm Jan 11, 2017 12:36pm
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  • #3,388
  • Jan 11, 2017 12:43pm Jan 11, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting yoko
{quote} Already tested, I dont really know where.
I'm guessing he was referring to AU touching 7352 this morning before news and trump. It didn't get within 3 pips, but there may be other reasons why he considered it already tested.
  • #3,389
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:30pm Jan 11, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting workaholic
{quote} I'm guessing he was referring to AU touching 7352 this morning before news and trump. It didn't get within 3 pips, but there may be other reasons why he considered it already tested.
lets see if we can help out here.

If you look at the attached chart you can see price twice got within striking distance of the level and pulled away, don't get too hung up on if it's 2 pips, 3 pips 5 pips etc, look at the reaction in context with everything else you can see on the chart. In this case it didn't really have far to travel before it got to the level, and then it pulled away after being relatively close. You kind of get the feeling that it's using up the fuel that stokes the fire every time it gets close, and each time there is a bit less fuel - eventually the fire goes out. Not sure if this helps or not, but rather than take a black/white situation, try to feel what is happening in the market, if it doesn't feel right then let it pass. There had been a few posts prior to the level being touched where some, including me, felt the level was no longer good to trade.
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest something different to how Dale trades it, if you are relatively new to trading my suggestion is.
1. Halve the pip value that you are trading at.
2. Put a 20 pip stop in place.
3. Put a 20 pip PT in place.

That way you get a bit more breathing space and don't have to be so proactive with the trade, if it losses well the loss is slightly less than you would have lost at 12 pips (cash), and if it wins you'll win the same as it would have been at +10. Trading this way takes some of the urgency out of what you are doing, and you can then actually take in what the market is doing which I guarantee will improve your trading. We have 3.5 months of background now & I can tell you that a 20/20 approach is scarily good, maybe not to Dales own trading level but good enough that you will be extremely happy with the result. If you get 18 pips up then move your stop to BE or even +10, but don't let it lose after being that far in front.

If you see price get close and pull away before the level is touched then think twice before taking the trade, have a look on this thread as usually someone with some experience will say if they consider it tested. I try myself but sometime I have my own trades already in motion that I must take care of first.

Stick with it and you really won't regret it. Cheers Ziggy
  • #3,390
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:49pm Jan 11, 2017 1:49pm
Quoting ziggy
{quote} lets see if we can help out here. If you look at the attached chart you can see price twice got within striking distance of the level and pulled away, don't get too hung up on if it's 2 pips, 3 pips 5 pips etc, look at the reaction in context with everything else you can see on the chart. In this case it didn't really have far to travel before it got to the level, and then it pulled away after being relatively close. You kind of get the feeling that it's using up the fuel that stokes the fire every time it gets close, and each time there...
Thanks again Ziggy for your post! I like this 20/20 approach very much!
  • #3,391
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:59pm Jan 11, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting ziggy
thanks guys, I suppose the real question is are the numbers of contracts traded significantly different from the norm, a real hard one to answer, when I did use this data you could sometimes see a massive quantity of contracts traded around the swings, much greater than the norm - and this pretty much guaranteed the next visit would be repelled. Other times there would be big swings but little by way of contracts traded that shifted the market a long way - and of course those swing points were traded straight through on the next visit. Was just...
There are much bigger volumes than normal. I think that Trump will be a bit of a wild card for markets. You never know how markets will react to his speeches/appearances. He seems to confuse the markets a bit and market participants will have to get used to this guy.
  • #3,392
  • Jan 11, 2017 2:02pm Jan 11, 2017 2:02pm
Quoting Trader-Dale
{quote} There are much bigger volumes than normal. I think that Trump will be a bit of a wild card for markets. You never know how markets will react to his speeches/appearances. He seems to confuse the markets a bit and market participants will have to get used to this guy.
dale how many swings do u take a week on average using this approach? And how many pairs?
  • #3,393
  • Jan 11, 2017 2:40pm Jan 11, 2017 2:40pm
Quoting ziggy
{quote} lets see if we can help out here....
Thanks Ziggy! I was referring to the 7343 buy target, but I get what you're saying. I've been dabbling for 10+ years with 1000s of hours of chart time, but have never found a set of indicators / trading rules which work for me over the long run. I really like the idea behind Dale's method here, so maybe I'll try the 20/20 approach and make adjustments as I learn and grow.

I did manage UC +10 short from the 1.3293 level today. Really wishing I would have held longer, but trying to follow the rules (even though I cheated and got into that one a pip earlier than I should have). TODO: Plan the trade, trade the plan!
  • #3,394
  • Edited 9:21pm Jan 11, 2017 8:00pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting ziggy
{quote} lets see if we can help out here. If you look at the attached chart you can see price twice got within striking distance of the level and pulled away, don't get too hung up on if it's 2 pips, 3 pips 5 pips etc, look at the reaction in context with everything else you can see on the chart. In this case it didn't really have far to travel before it got to the level, and then it pulled away after being relatively close. You kind of get the feeling that it's using up the fuel that stokes the fire every time it gets close, and each time there...
Hey Ziggy

I see you have been journaling all TD's levels.

May I kindly request that you please post your spreadsheet of the results of the standard 12 SL 10 TP, as well as results for the 20/20 method you just mentioned, and also 20 SL 10 TP - just cut and dry SL and TP - no trailing no BE (unless you have journaled these as well)

If it's too much, the win % of these 3 would be good enough. Thanks in advance.
  • #3,395
  • Jan 11, 2017 8:17pm Jan 11, 2017 8:17pm
Quoting devonian
{quote} Just seemed like a logical place to me look at the chart {image}

I like your template...
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  • #3,396
  • Jan 11, 2017 9:24pm Jan 11, 2017 9:24pm
Quoting kenlionheart
{quote} Hey Ziggy I see you have been journaling all TD's levels. May I kindly request that you please post your spreadsheet of the results of the standard 12 SL 10 TP, as well as results for the 20/20 method you just mentioned, and also 20 SL 10 TP - just cut and dry SL and TP - no trailing no BE (unless you have journaled these as well) If it's too much, the win % of these 3 would be good enough. Thanks in advance.
Trader dale has posted his monthly returns throughout this thread, I think you will find it will answer what you looking for very quickly, imho.
  • #3,397
  • Jan 11, 2017 11:36pm Jan 11, 2017 11:36pm
Quoting Santoso777
{quote} I like your template... {image}
I 2nd that...looks clean
" Liver alone,,,Cheese my Seester "
  • #3,398
  • Jan 12, 2017 1:56am Jan 12, 2017 1:56am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Trader dale has posted his monthly returns throughout this thread, I think you will find it will answer what you looking for very quickly, imho.
Yes I was looking for an updated spreadsheet at the current one is until october. Thanks.
  • #3,399
  • Jan 12, 2017 2:13am Jan 12, 2017 2:13am
Intraday levels for 12.1.2017
I use PT 10 pips, SL 12 pips.
Happy trading
*Basic rules about trading my levels and some mt4 indicators are here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9162014#post9162014
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  • #3,400
  • Jan 12, 2017 2:29am Jan 12, 2017 2:29am
Quoting kenlionheart
{quote} Hey Ziggy I see you have been journaling all TD's levels. May I kindly request that you please post your spreadsheet of the results of the standard 12 SL 10 TP, as well as results for the 20/20 method you just mentioned, and also 20 SL 10 TP - just cut and dry SL and TP - no trailing no BE (unless you have journaled these as well) If it's too much, the win % of these 3 would be good enough. Thanks in advance.
If I posted my actual spreadsheet now I just know I would get bombarded with questions that I just don't have the time to answer, and it wouldn't help anyone to trade any better. I have gathered my information in a way that probably wouldn't be that helpful in that I record how far price goes against the level before reaching 20 pips profit, I could get to the 12/10 info but it would take a bit of faffing around. I've posted an image below where you can see the 20-20 results, before talking about those there are a few things that are really important.

1. Spread, in short you absolutely must use a broker with tight spreads. If you traded these levels in the futures market there is no spread as such, just a 1 tick difference between the bid & offer price, so price can go 11.5 pips against you and you wont lose, most FX spot market traders will have been stopped out at -12 at this point. So not all traders are fighting an equal battle.
2. Market reading - nothing clever, just don't trade around relevant macro news, and be aware if the level has already been tested - every time it gets close & pulls away the probability of a successful outcome gets reduced. The 2 lines on my graph show what a difference it makes, although trading all of them is far from a poor result.

Some numbers, I have voided all trades that I see falling foul of point 2 above, and that leaves me with 79 actual trades. I have also excluded those where the spread alone kept me out of a trade, had it not been for those it would have been even better. At 20-20 I have a 69.9% win rate, and 2.5% break even, with 27.8 % as losing trades. That translates to 660 pips won, which gives an average value of +8.4 pips per trade, which against a 20 pip risk equates to a 41% profit on investment......... yes, you have read that correctly!!!!

Now for the health warning, this isn't a significant quantity of trades to say this is representative, but for me it's plenty enough to say the approach is extremely good.

Snapshot below. Cheers Ziggy
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