Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Dear iamsovereign

Thanks for the question. I know you are very knowledgeable on the technical side. Here is how I reach my call. KeepCalmfx posted this chart at my request.

You can see there is NO Clear direction at this moment.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1484078408

However there is much more chance it will head down because WE set the Trend because of the Relationship to the US 30 and Money Flow and where the money goes when we have RISK OFF !!! Tomorrow is a RISK ON day because of the Press Conference of President Elect Donald J. Trump.

Here also is the chart done by KeepCalmfx as it relates to the US 30 (Dow 30) Look at the indicators. Do you use SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator in your charts ? They work very well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1484078376

One of our accomplished Forex traders did the following chart recently. Have a look. It is wayfarer and you see the Correlation there is now out of balance.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1484026818

So we try to trade with the more likely trend. If you have any thoughts or ideas please share them here and again if I have not been clear please follow up with another question.


Benjaminis

And Now On To Gold !!!

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/i...&otherChart=no

HEADS UP - THE BANKSTER of BANKSTERS , Goldman is panicking !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
Speaking at a conference in London, Goldman MD Christian Mueller-Glissmann warned investors, "valuations are at very high levels. And that concerns us when it comes to making progress in stocks, unless you maintain a very high level of optimism." The firm's aggregate risk appetite index reached record highs in December - the same peak reached in 1999/2000 and 2007... and we know what happened next.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...7011_GS1_0.jpg
"This is a chart which a lot of people have in the back of their mind right now. It's our risk appetite indicator. That essentially shows you across asset classes what the risk appetite is. And it has equity risk premium in there it, it has VIX, it has everything that reflects how bullish markets are and it's real time."
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...11_GS2_0_0.jpg
Mueller-Glissman goes on...
"And guess what, in the middle of December, that indicator had the highest level in the history of the indicator. We are not at the beginning of this optimism trade, we're really in the middle of that optimism trade."
Roughly translated, like small business optimism, this is as good as it gets for markets.
Here's two examples of that 'risk appetite'...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...011_EOD7_0.jpg

HEADS UP NOT TO PILE ON HERE IS ONE OF THE LARGEST TRADERS IN THE WORLD !!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...on-bull-market

Jeffrey Gundlach said the 10-year Treasury yield topping 3 percent would signal the end of the three-decade long rally in bonds.


Almost for sure were going to take a look at 3 percent on the 10-year during 2017, Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday during his annual Just Markets webcast from New York. And if we take out 3 percent in 2017, its bye-bye bond bull market. Rest in peace.


Bond manager Bill Gross at Janus Capital Group Inc. has a different threshold. He said in an investment outlook released earlier in the day that benchmark Treasuries above 2.6 percent would spell the end for the bond bull market.


The last line in the sand is 3 percent on the 10-year, Gundlach said. That will define the end of the bond bull market from a classic-chart perspective, not 2.60.


Yields on 10-year Treasuries jumped after the November election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, peaking at 2.5967 percent on Dec. 15 after hitting an all-time low July 8 at 1.3579 percent. By late Tuesday they retreated to 2.3757 percent.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...I/v2/-1x-1.png


Trumps election and his tax-reform policies have fueled rising confidence among corporate executives, small-business owners and consumers, raising the prospect that economic growth can reach 3 percent, compared with the steady rate of about 2 percent in recent years, Gundlach said.


Animal Spirits
Clearly, the animal spirits have been stirred by the election of a businessman and the perceived pro-business administration, he said.

Trumps proposals to raise international trade barriers would be a negative for growth, Gundlach added on a cautionary note.

In other comments, Gundlach said:
* Equity investors should consider diversifying internationally, selling some U.S. stocks to capture recent gains and buying funds pegged to places such as India and Japan.
* 10-year yields may reach 6 percent by the end of Trumps first term.
* The Federal Reserve will raise rates two or three times this year and needs to be less relaxed because inflation is picking up momentum.
* Oil prices will vacillate between the mid-$40s and maybe the high-$50s a barrel. Were not looking for big moves in the oil price this year.


COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: NOW WE KNOW SO LET US GET READY FOR THE COLLAPSE !!! MONEY FLOW LEADS THE WAY ALWAYS !!!

And Now Over To Mexico - We Cover The World !!!

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/artic...idarticulo=303

Snippet:
10/January/2017


Trump's Ignorance

Hugo Salinas Price
The president elect of the US, Mr. Trump, does not know what he is doing when he proposes protectionist measures to encourage the reindustrialization of the US and bring home again, the American industry that emigrated to foreign lands.

The US lost their industry as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreements, which were signed (under pressure) by representatives of the allied countries and of the countries conquered by the US in World War II. Those Agreements established the world's monetary system for the post-war world, after the victory of the Allies, which was already in sight in 1944.

The monetary system was to be based on gold, which would be the world's reserve currency, supplemented by the American dollar, which was to be considered "as good as gold". So the world's monetary system was founded upon a lie: that a promise can be as good as the physical thing it promises.

This lie has accumulated a negative "karma" for the US since the moment it was pronounced, and the financial disaster which will overtake the world in the not distant future is its consequence.


In 1960, the economist Robert Triffin detected the central problem residing in the Bretton Woods Agreements. I detected the same problem without having any knowledge of "Triffin's Paradox", as it has come to be known. Many years ago, sitting in my office smoking my cigar and contemplating the world's financial situation, I came to the same conclusion as Triffin.


In a few words, it turns out that in order for the international monetary system established at BrettonWoods to function, the US is forced to run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world. Year after year, the US must purchase more from the rest of the world, than what the US sells to the rest of the world, thus creating a permanent flow of dollars to the rest of the world. This flow makes possible the creation of Monetary Reserves in the Central Banks of the rest of the world.


Without this constant flow of dollars from the US to the International Reserves of the Central Banks of the world, the currencies issued by those Central Banks would cease to exist. If Banco de México, the Mexican Central Bank, does not have dollars in its Reserves, then Mexicans do not have money: without dollar Reserves, the Mexican peso would not be worth peanuts - at least, in international terms.


In order to obtain dollars, it is necessary to sell to American customers some product at a lower price than that demanded by an American producer. It is self-evident that there is no other form of introducing an export into US territory, than by means of underselling an American competitor.

This is the reason why a large part of what was once the great American manufacturing industry has disappeared: the overwhelming need of the rest of the world to export to the US, in order to obtain dollars, caused the deindustrialization of the US.

It is quite unjust to blame the rest of the world for having caused the deindustrialization of the US, and to point an accusing finger at Mexico, for instance, as an enemy of the US because it has been a successful exporter of manufactures to the US. Mexico has simply been operating according to the rules established by the US itself in the Bretton Woods Agreements: the dollar is the world's currency, and at all costs, it is imperative to have dollars in order for Mexico to have a monetary system.


If Mr. Trump should attempt to eliminate or reduce the US trade deficit and protect and encourage US reindustrialization by means of tariffs on imports, what he would achieve would be to choke the economies of the rest of the world with a scarcity of dollars obtained - how else? - by exports to the US.

Choking on dollar scarcity, because exports to the US decline or are eliminated, the world will not remain in paralysis. Another alternative to the dollar as the world's currency will be sought, simply because finding an alternative becomes a matter of life or death.

What can take the place of the dollar? Possibly it will be the SDR - the "Special Drawing Rights" created by the International Monetary Fund - another huge lie that has been nicknamed "paper gold". No one knows how what sort of acceptance will be given to this monetary fantasy.

On the other hand there is gold, latent but repressed: true money that implies a world of balanced trade where there can be no trade deficits or trade surpluses.

Mr. Trump does not know it, but applying a policy of protectionism for American industry through tariffs on imports means the death of the world's monetary system based on the dollar.


Postscript: Dr. Agustin Carstens, Governor of the Bank of Mexico: would it not be convenient to think about the silver coin, given a monetary value by a simple procedure that I suggested years ago?

So with risk on, money flows to JPY - place of security? I will have to read more in your past posts for I remember you speaking to this in your writings. Some of this is more difficult for me due to lack of a good understanding of fundamentals -- but more so how it translates to relations of currency trading.

quick question-- if I remember correctly the US30 is a price weighted average -- any feelings about that.... Regards

Ok Benjamin no problem.... :-)

As previously announced I just went SHORT 100 units of USD/JPY and my Contract Value is around $100,000 US Dollars.

My margin used is $1000 US Dollars. I put my Limit Out at 115.481 in case it reaches there as I sleep.

It would need to go to over 117.000 for a Loss of $1000 US Dollars so now I have finished my Forex Trading for today.

We almost have you there. First off the US 30 is the Dow Jones 30 Stocks and it is just an average of all their prices divided by 30.

The money ALWAYS flows in part to USD/JPY because it is parked there for safe haven and it strengthens the Yen.

The more bought VS sold against the US Dollar makes the YEN Stronger only in the pair USD/JPY. Do your own chart on a daily basis overlaying US 30 with USD/JPY.

There are patterns that clear and so as the MONEY FLOWS to safer havens also to the US Bonds whether the 2 Year or the 5 Year or the 10 Year or the 30 Year US Bonds which cause the Yields to come down.

When TRILLIONS of DOLLARS of ALL Bonds around the world sell off, the Yields go up and TRILLIONS are LOST and the Money ROTATES into the Equity Markets around the World as we can clearly see.

I hope it is clear now and again questions are always welcome.

5 Minute Chart from Finviz of US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz of US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz of US 10 Year Bonds (Treasuries)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz of US 2 Year Bonds (Treasuries)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZT&p=m5

Daily Chart from Finviz of USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?...ashx?t=ZT&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz of USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5



Benjaminis

HEADS UP !!! I just did a Google Search on Money Flows Currencies and here is what I found. I have to read it carefully and in the meantime I share it here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=334165

Snippet:

ALERT: TANSTAAFL! There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. This is not a system, free signals, charts whatsoever. Go on to some fake chick thread and let them rip you off if you are searching for that. This is the basic knowledge on how to read money flows and if you put a lot of work, logical thinking, probably some programming, 4-5digit hours of charts in it then you will be rewarded with a system with your own edge yes. I will not disclose my edge to you. You would not be able to understand / trade it my way anyway. Remember... TANSTAAFL.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: See I told you that I did not create Money Flow. I did CREATE my Risk Management System and it SURELY WORKS !!!

Now Folks get with the Program and maybe become very happy and wealthy only if you work hard as in every career. Good Evening !!!

Once again , I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE. I can not guarantee that you do however I will know for sure by your Forex Trading results. It is up to you not myself as I have done my part and at least three of our Forex Traders are learning well. The three that are working on it and participating. IT IS THAT SIMPLE and that has too be clear so JUST DO IT !!!


Benjaminis

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

Benjaminis

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...lan010917.html

Snippet:
Chart In Focus
Debt or DJIA: Who Gets to 20* First?
McClellan Financial Publications, Inc
Posted Jan 9, 2017

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...an010917/1.gif

January 06, 2017
I got to wondering about all of the NYSE traders on CNBC sporting their Dow 20,000 hats. Hitting that level seems elusive, but they keep them at the ready.
Interestingly, if they would do just a tiny bit of embroidery modification, they could be assured of making those hats useful. Instead of Dow 20K, how about Debt 20T? It may be just a fun numerical coincidence that the DJIA is approaching 20,000 while the total federal debt is approaching $20 trillion, but there it is anyway.

According to the Treasury Department, the total federal debt as of Jan. 4, 2017 is 19,952,414,234,340.71. If you got lost in all of the commas, thats $19.952 trillion. And in case you struggle as I do at reducing fractional trillions down to more digestible numbers, it is $47.8 billion away from hitting $20 trillion. Heck, we could even see it get there by Inauguration day, which is only 14 days away. The web site www.usdebtclock.org has the debt just a hair higher (i.e. $100 million or so, thats a hair at these levels):

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...an010917/2.gif

Meanwhile, as of the Jan. 5 close, the DJIA was 101 points away from hitting 20,000. Which one do you think is going to hit the big fat round number first?
The chart above shows each plot on a logarithmic scaling, and it reveals that the two have been dancing together more than apart. Debt saw a couple of big historical jumps, one for World War One, and another for World War Two. Otherwise it has been a generally smooth uptrend, roughly in keeping with that of the DJIA. Sometimes the debt is ahead, sometimes the DJIA is.

So what? Well, Ill tell you so what. I dont have any grandchildren yet but hope to someday, and I already feel bad for borrowing from them to finance our national debt. But what if we did try to reduce the total debt?

This next chart is one I have shown before, and it reveals that past attempts to pay off the debt, or to even get close to doing so, have been horrible times for the stock market.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...an010917/3.gif

When the debt is growing at a rapid rate, that is hugely bullish for the stock market. There is more free money to help elevate stock prices. When the federal government tries to balance the budget, it is problematic for stock prices.

This chart looks back to 1928. We could look back further, but GDP had not been invented before then, and so the GDP data are just not available.

Running a budget surplus in 1928 and 1929 helped lead to the Great Depression (1). Attempting to pay off war bonds after WWII led to a similar albeit smaller slowdown (2). During Eisenhowers second term (3), Congress tried to pay for the big Interstate Highway System bill with appropriate taxation, and a big recession ensued in 1957.


In 2000 (4), the Clinton Administration supposedly ran a budget surplus, although this was fictional since the total federal debt kept increasing every year. Still, the effect of even getting close to a real balanced budget was enough to kill the Internet Boom, and push the U.S. economy into recession.


In the 1920s the debt was reduced every year for a decade and the stock market loved it, until 1929 came along. So, it is only a modern inconvenient truth that debt reduction is bearish for the stock market.

This highlights a perplexing problem. If anyone thinks that the U.S. ought to pay down its total federal debt, a cause which I incidentally support for the sake of my unborn grandchildren, then he had better be ready to accept that this effort will mean a rough time for the stock market, for the wealth effect, the trickle-down wealth effect, and several other economic data series. Paying off debt is unpleasant (duh!!). Indeed, it may be too unpleasant for our political leaders to stomach.

So if thats the case, how do we ever pay down the debt, and save our grandchildren from suffering due to our profligacy?

Thats the big question. Maybe if we can sell enough Dow 20K hats, or Debt 20T hats, we can profit enough off of those sales to put a dent in it.
***
Related Charts
Jan 09, 2015
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...7/bottom_1.gif

Deficits Are Good,
Sort Of
Mar 17, 2016
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...7/bottom_2.gif

Bad News: People
Are Saving More
Oct 20, 2016
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...7/bottom_3.gif

The Post-Election
Stock Market
###
Jan 6, 2017
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
email: [email protected]
website: www.mcoscillator.com
(253) 581-4889

The risk today is high. Before the press conference, Trump UsaTN possible growth and, hence, DJIA. It is also expected to increase USDInd.

< Once again , I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE.> We appreciate your efforts, get invaluable experience and knowledge. All the knowledge you gave us, we will apply to the charts FXCM

"[quote=BenjaminIs;9424740]HEADS UP !!! I just did a Google Search on Money Flows Currencies and here is what I found. I have to read it carefully and in the meantime I share it here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=334165 Snippet: ALERT: TANSTAAFL! There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. This is not a system, free signals, charts whatsoever. Go on to some fake chick thread and let them rip you off if you are searching for that. This is the basic knowledge on how to read money flows and if you put a lot of work, logical thinking, probably some programming, 4-5digit hours of charts in it then you will be rewarded with a system with your own edge yes. I will not disclose my edge to you. You would not be able to understand / trade it my way anyway. Remember... TANSTAAFL. COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: See I told you that"

That is where it started for me.....till i got here

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

As promised, my daily charts.

8:10 GMT

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tru...teid=rss&rss=1


Trumps game of chicken with China is a lose-lose situation

Published: Jan 11, 2017 3:17 a.m. ET
China wont cave like Japan did in the 1980s on trade
Markets reporter Sue Chang
Despite their shared history and geographic proximity, China is not Japan, something President-elect Donald Trump should remember when he attempts to bully China into submission, according to analysts.
Throughout his campaign, Trump had fired up his base with pledges to take China to task for unfair trade policies. The conventional wisdom among experts is that Trump will move aggressively against China with the aim of forcing the worlds biggest exporter to the negotiating table to win concessions, a ploy that worked with Japan in the 1980s.
However, the outcome of such heavy-handed tactics is expected to be vastly different.
China will not fold like Japan, said Helen Qiao, China and Asia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. We think China will push back against threatened trade restrictions, she said in a recent report.
Japan was a leading exporter in the 1980s as brands like Toyota and Sony won the hearts of consumers around the world. Favorable trade terms from its biggest patron, the U.S., also did not hurt.
The World Trade Organization
However, sentiment quickly turned against the Asian country as the U.S. continued to suffer billions in deficits, prompting the U.S. government to enforce import quotas on Japanese goods and in turn demand greater access for U.S. companies.
The fight with China is likely to be much more hostile and, ultimately, detrimental to both sides.
China could choose to respond via an asymmetric trade war by selectively raising tariffs against the U.S., or employing measures such as restricting the purchase of U.S. goods and services if the U.S. imposes a tariff of 5% or 20%, said Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics at Morgan Stanley, in a research note.
A move by the Trump administration to erect trade barriers against China will weigh on the countrys economic growth at a time when fears about a precipitous slowdown in China continue to linger.
Chinese economic growth is projected to slow to 6.4% this year from 6.7% in 2016 and 6.9% in 2015, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
A 5% tariff against Chinese goods could lead to a 0.1 percentage-point drag on Chinas GDP growth, while a 45% tariff could slow economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points, he said.
The U.S. is likely to suffer as well.
The World Bank on Tuesday warned that efforts by the new U.S. administration to raise tariffs and barriers could led to retaliation and burden the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Given the complexity of imposing a comprehensive tariff on Chinese imports, Trump is expected to take the easier route of labeling China a currency manipulator.
According to U.S. regulations, China is not a currency manipulator, although it is on the watch list along with Switzerland, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Germany. For the U.S. Treasury to call out a country as a manipulator, it has to meet all three of the following criteria a trade surplus in excess of $20 billion with the U.S., a current account surplus of 3% of its GDP and persistent interventions in currency markets that are deemed one-sided.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
However, those rules are not legally binding, so Trump could theoretically ask the Treasury to revise the guidelines or even issue an executive edict to slap China with the manipulator label, kicking off bilateral negotiations, according to Bank of Americas Qiao.
If China fails to make adjustments and it remains on the manipulation list after a year, the U.S. has several options, including preventing China from participating in U.S. government procurement deals, increased International Monetary Fund surveillance and the possibility of launching trade negotiations, she said.
We believe the main point of naming China as a currency manipulator would be to bring China back to the negotiation table at the lowest cost, said Qiao. It is possible that the Trump administration will seek to engage China in trade agreement negotiations as soon as possible, even before a manipulation conclusion is drawn.
But there is no guarantee that China would be willing to parley.
Instead of caving in and trying to prepare voluntary export restraints like Japan did with their auto exports back in the 1980s, we believe China would start by strongly protesting against the labelling with the IMF, said Qiao.
Beijing may not go as far as to sell off U.S. Treasury bonds from their foreign exchange reserves, but even a war of words will erode confidence in the U.S. and China and by extension, the global economy, she said.
The inauguration of a more combative U.S. president comes at a sensitive time for China as it battles a sharp depreciation of its currency on sizable capital outflows, ensuring that China will not meekly acquiesce to Trumps demands.
The yuan USDCNY, +0.0780% has softened to 6.92 against the dollar on Tuesday from 6.49 a year earlier and is forecast to retreat to 7.3 in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to Bank of America. The countrys foreign exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in almost six years to $3.01 trillion in December, sinking $41 billion in one month as authorities dipped into the reserves to prop up the yuan.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eur...teid=rss&rss=1

European stocks wander before Trump takes center stage

Published: Jan 11, 2017 5:16 a.m. ET

European stocks toggled between small gains and losses Wednesday, with investors holding off on major moves ahead of Donald Trump’s widely anticipated speech that will mark his first as U.S. president-elect.

The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.16% was up 0.1% at 364.29 after trading down by 0.3% earlier in the session. Sector wise, telecom, commodity and consumer goods shares were higher, while utility, tech, health care, industrial and consumer services shares declined.
Gainers included Volkswagen AG VOW3, +2.05% VLKAY, +0.41% , with shares up 2.4% after the German auto maker on Tuesday confirmed that it has agreed to pay $4.3 billion in penalties to the U.S. Justice Department and Customs to settle charges that it used special software to cheat on diesel emissions tests, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The pan-European benchmark on Tuesday ended up 0.1%, the first win after two straight sessions of losses.

“The markets ... are cautious as traders look towards a press conference by Donald Trump today in the hope of further clues over the direction of fiscal policy, which has had so many hopes pinned to,” said Richard Perry, market analyst at Hantec Markets, in a note.
“If the press conference does not give direction to the markets then this consolidation could continue to Trump’s inauguration next Friday (although Janet Yellen’s speech [Thursday] could also help to drive some direction,” he added.

U.S. stocks and European markets have pushed higher since November as investors set their sights on a potential boom in infrastructure and other business projects that Trump had said he wants to undertake during his presidency.
Trump is expected to speak at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, or 4 p.m. London time, toward the end of trading throughout much of Europe.

Indexes: Germany’s DAX 30 DAX, +0.21% was up 0.2% at 11,608.40 and France’s CAC 40 PX1, +0.14% turned up 0.1% at 4,894.
The U.K’s FTSE 100 UKX, +0.20% turned up 0.2% at 7,290.23 following a record run of closing highs. Italy’s FTSE MIB I945, +0.06% rose 0.2% but Spain’s IBEX IBEX, -0.14% was down 0.2%.
The euro EURUSD, -0.2463% fetched $1.0535, compared with $1.0560 late Tuesday in New York.
The pound GBPUSD, -0.4599% fell to $1.2120, down from $1.2167 late Tuesday, after data showed the U.K.’s trade deficit widened by 2.6 billion pounds ($3.15 billion) to £4.2 billion in November, as imports rose faster than exports, the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said.

Movers: Cobham PLC COB, -14.82% tumbled 14% after the technology and services provider warned that 2016 adjusted trading profit will be below its previously guided range because of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the KC-46 tanker program. It also said it won’t be declaring a final dividend.
J Sainsbury PLC SBRY, +5.53% shares climbed 6.3% after the U.K.’s second-biggest supermarket chain by market share said its total retail sales, excluding fuel, were up 0.8% in the 15 weeks ended Jan. 7.
Tullow Oil PLC TLW, -3.28% fell 1.6% after the oil producer said it’s promoting chief operating officer Paul McDade to chief executive, and that production was in line with expectations for the year ended Dec. 31.
Engie SA ENGI, -3.44% fell 3.5% after the French government said late Tuesday it sold 100 million shares in the French power utility for 1.14 billion euros ($1.2 billion)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-off-to-the-races-hoping-trump-will-reveal-stimulus-details-2017-01-11?siteid=rss&rss=1

Asian markets off to the races, hoping Trump will reveal stimulus details

Asian stock markets broadly rose Wednesday on encouraging economic data and an impending press conference by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, which traders hoped may contain details of his stimulus program.
“Can we get a little plan for fiscal stimulus?” said Christoffer Moltke-Leth, director of global sales trading at Saxo Capital Markets. “What will be coming for tax cuts? The composition, the time and potentially the size of his planned fiscal spending. That will have an impact on what the [U.S. Federal Reserve] is going to do.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-denies-holding-compromising-material-on-donald-trump-2017-01-11?siteid=rss&rss=1

Russia denies holding compromising material on Donald Trump

Russia on Wednesday denied it has compromising material on Donald Trump, calling a dossier of unverified allegations an “absolute fabrication” and an attempt to damage U.S.-Russian relations.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the report, which claimed that Russia has material that could be used to blackmail Trump, as “pulp fiction,” according to Russian news agencies.
“This is a clear attempt to damage our bilateral relations,” he said. “Truly, there are those who whip up this hysteria, who will break their necks to support this ‘witch hunt.’”

Good Morning KeepCalmfx

Thanks for your input and posting while I slept. You have got the flow now and are able to get to the next stage of what I can teach you. I would appreciate it for you to look at the charts on correlation that wayfarer posted and give your views of what you see so that others can understand why we need to follow this and how it lets us better understand how the Money Flow affects the Asset Classes that we have an interest in trading.

I will be back in about 30 minutes and will start my Forex trading day then.

Thanks