Are you in trouble as a trader? | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

China and Japan in trouble. Be careful if you are long Yen 4 replies

You know you're over confident as a trader when..... 11 replies

What Kind Of Trader You are & Which Trading Style Suit's You? 0 replies

Are you sure you're a Day Trader? 21 replies

Attachments: Are you in trouble as a trader?
Exit Attachments

Are you in trouble as a trader?

  • #101
  • Jan 9, 2017 9:49am Jan 9, 2017 9:49am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You know what is amazing? After 10 years trading forex (which is probably the hardest market in the world) i now find stocks to be very easy trade. FX acted as the perfect training ground for me.
So true...
But I still find FX and commodities to be quite profitable.
Enter Signature
  • #102
  • Jan 9, 2017 9:55am Jan 9, 2017 9:55am
Alpha

I always like your posts and info but believe you are wrong when you say markets are not currently being driven by human emotions.

I see NOTHING different from today's price action to the price action of 10 years ago. More volume yes, different moves, no. Reason, because humans are still very much the dominating factor in the markets (except sub 1m world). Anyway, most of the Algos are just market-making and that's an advantage to us all.

And if you look at the daily charts the action today is the same today as it was on the charts of 50+ years ago (I have many of these charts, grains, Dow, certain stocks etc).

As for the 99% of Algos trading and 1% mortals, who is going to lose? Can't have them all making money and even today, many sharp traders are using the algos to pay their wages. They're taking them full on and winning.

Algos have it covered in the sub 1sec world but let them have that space because no trader was ever good at trading the 10millesecond chart.

As for AI taking over the markets, makes a good story but unless they're going to be able to see the future they're going to be as blind as a human trader and it will all be a probabilistic guess based on a massive amount of data much of which will be useless. AI also can't do flair, imagination, it can't be logical when needed but then suddenly switch to illogical, it can't judge 'character' easily (so so important for trading) which means it won't be able to understand the concept of out of character, and so on. Many of those attributes and more are needed to trade the markets successfully. AI will have a role but for the markets I believe it's a pipe dream to think a good AI bot will be able to out-perform a good trader (above 1m charts).

Computers are excellent at speed but speed to 98% of traders/investors is not that important and never has been. Often being slow is the key to success in this game. Being slow means you're thinking, you're contemplating, you're strategising and so on. That is the human advantage in trading and investing and no computer can ever come close to our ability to be slow. Both human traders and AI/Algos have their advantages and disadvantages and both sides will be able to use their advantages whilst not using their disadvantages so we'll all be able to participate and collectively do pretty well.

Finally here's a good counter argument against AI, the author reckons it's another bubble about to blow.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01..._news_of_2016/
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #103
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:15am Jan 9, 2017 10:15am
Quoting Gingis
Hi guys, Im relatively fresh to trading (just about 4-5 years) and do it with my own money so far. Till now I have only lost but that is due to my own mistake of not following money management, which I have hopefully understood now. I want to ask you, especially the ones more experienced : 1) how long did it take you for the break-through 2) where did you get extra funds from (besides 5-9 work) Thanks in advance for all answers.
How long is a piece of string? It's normally somewhere between 0-10 years, and as all traders progress at different speeds according to time available to study the markets and trade etc, any more accurate than that is impossible to say. Traders who try and run before they can walk fall early, and the ones who stay for the long haul are the ones that make it.

Concerning funds, trading in my opinion should be something that one fits into their normal job until they have cracked it. Too many people go full time into trading without knowing what they are doing and blow every penny in their account in no time. Hope that goes someway to answering your question.
  • #104
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:38am Jan 9, 2017 10:38am
Quoting Calculus
Alpha I always like your posts and info but believe you are wrong when you say markets are not currently being driven by human emotions. I see NOTHING different from today's price action to the price action of 10 years ago. More volume yes, different moves, no. Reason, because humans are still very much the dominating factor in the markets (except sub 1m world). Anyway, most of the Algos are just market-making and that's an advantage to us all. And if you look at the daily charts the action today is the same today as it was on the charts of 50+...
I think, you haven't read enough science fictions!
When we reach the point of technological singularity - god help us! The world will turn upside down literally overnight.
The moment when you see that a big pile of "muscles" is asking you with German accent, something about Uzi 9mm....... You better run away as fast as you can!
Trust me on this!
Inserted Video
  • #105
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:48am Jan 9, 2017 10:48am
You don't have to be a ruthless bastard to make a good trader, but it helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: result_2336_1041655582553669.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #106
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:56am Jan 9, 2017 10:56am
Quoting alphaomega
I'm in trouble as a trader? Oh yeah, absolutely! But it's not just me, WE are all in trouble! Let me tell you why. (You know the saying? - On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. ) Guess what? It's true! Statistics, probability theory and academic research confirms this. No one can win in a negative sum game for an extended period of time..
You are right when you say;

"Don't get me wrong, there is money to be made with trading (still), but definitely not the way 99% traders (try to) do it."

But you are wrong when you conclude;

"So, yes! We are in trouble! The natural evolution is going to kill us, just like it did with the floor traders, just like it's going to kill the HFT guys."

As long as a market goes up or down traders will make money. Technical trading as we know it will die (patterns, candles etc.) but that does not change the ability to make money just the technique.
  • #107
  • Jan 9, 2017 11:57am Jan 9, 2017 11:57am
Quoting raveon
{quote} You are right when you say; "Don't get me wrong, there is money to be made with trading (still), but definitely not the way 99% traders (try to) do it." But you are wrong when you conclude; "So, yes! We are in trouble! The natural evolution is going to kill us, just like it did with the floor traders, just like it's going to kill the HFT guys." As long as a market goes up or down traders will make money. Technical trading as we know it will die (patterns, candles etc.) but that does not change the ability to make money just the technique....
Using the logic, shouldn't trading have died when computers came along?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #108
  • Jan 9, 2017 1:11pm Jan 9, 2017 1:11pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} I think, you haven't read enough science fictions! When we reach the point of technological singularity - god help us! The world will turn upside down literally overnight. The moment when you see that a big pile of "muscles" is asking you with German accent, something about Uzi 9mm....... You better run away as fast as you can! Trust me on this! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIPCn-aYMoM
You will be telling me that Harry Potter is real next.............................
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #109
  • Jan 9, 2017 1:27pm Jan 9, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Watched 60 Minutes last night. Story about Planet 9.
TooFunny TooSlow
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #110
  • Jan 9, 2017 2:13pm Jan 9, 2017 2:13pm
Just copied and pasted this from an old thread of mine because I consider it very important. Some of the most inspirational books I ever read were those written by the former fighter pilots of WW2. Many died in action, but generally it was those with the least experience and flying time. Apart from experience however, it was attitude, and yes, luck, but the right attitude increased the chances of survival dramatically. This is the same for trading - provided you do have an edge, then aggression and decisiveness when it matters are crucial - you wait for the trade to enter your sights, and you strike, no hesitation, no fear. You know where you want to take profits and you are prepared to take the measured loss if the trade goes against you. The vast majority of traders do not trade like this, and their trading is riddled with self-doubt, reservation, and fear.

If anyone is interested in reading WW2 fighter pilot stories, let me know and I'll give you some of the best ones to read. They helped my trading enormously a few years ago.


" One of the books that helped me become a better trader was Johnnie Johnson's ' Wing Commander ', an account by Britain's top scoring ace of WW2 of his exploits. In the book, he describes the mood in the pilot's mess shortly before a flying sortie against the enemy as being comprised of two types pf pilot - those who nervously checked their entire escape kits were in order - the hunted, and those who calmly walked out to their Spitfires or Hurricanes for a pre-flight check and a chat with their ground crews, leaders and wingmen - the hunters. Invariably, the former did not live long.

I refer to this in this post because I see a great parallel between these fighter pilots of the Second World War and us traders, with the welcome exception that one's life as a trader is not on the line ( I hope! ), only one's trading account. In the five years I've been trading, one of the biggest things I've had to learn is that the forex market is neither a place for inexperience or timidity. If you have the skills to make money in this business, and by that I mean you do actually know what you are doing, then this counts for nothing if you do not combine this with aggression and conviction when the time comes to pull the trigger. Many of the biggest moves happen fast following a pullback or fake to an area or support and resistance, and the experienced trader will recognize this and act with speed and conviction, not with fear of loss or hesitation.

It is my firm belief that one of the reasons so many traders fail to make money, apart from lacking the necessary technical ability, is because life in other areas just does not train people to be risk takers, in fact, life teaches us to be overly cautious from a very young age, a mind-set we bring into trading, but one which ultimately will lead to our downfall as traders. What we have to be able to do is throw a good deal of caution to the wind, and, like the successful fighter pilots of WW2, to fix onto our target and go for it with all guns blazing. This does not guarantee that we won't crash and burn, but it does put the odds of being a winner firmly in our favour. "
  • #111
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:03am Jan 10, 2017 4:03am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is exactly my point! In the previous post i said : "Don't get me wrong, there is money to be made with trading (still), but definitely not the way 99% traders (try to) do it." What i mean by that? There are opportunities! (And you can always find new ones) But not where most people search for them. The most popular markets (like fx) will dry up eventually! This is inevitable....... The more market participants there are in a specific market, the more serious the competition becomes. More competition = higher percentage of professional...

Pretty Insightful comments on both AI and market competition. Some might call you paranoid but I understand perfectly where you're coming from.

I myself made the transition from trading highly competitive forex(READ most manipulated by retail brokers, price-fixing-banks, central banks, bank HFT algo, insiders,etc)to stocks & futures, it's a walk in the park compared with forex.

That's not to say there's no exploitable mechanical edge within the forex realm, it's just that edge won't be lying around in a conventional, technical way especially intraday. An exception to this is market intuition developed after years of trading the same system.

Regarding AI, I've witness first-hand few futures scalpers(averaging 400 trades a day)with at least 3-year highly profitable track record got destroyed by program trading and they quit after that, including one of the geniuses who never had a losing month since month 2.

The primary weapons of a trader should be critical thinking and common sense.
No Highs? No Lows? Must be Bose!
  • #112
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:22am Jan 10, 2017 4:22am
Quoting Tardigrade
{quote} The primary weapons of a trader should be critical thinking and common sense.
And patience.

Computers/AI/Algos have their roles in the markets and they will only get bigger but they aren't any good at critical thinking, common sense and patience. That's why I believe that good human traders will still be around in our lifetimes. But, in this strange business we're in, you never know...
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #113
  • Jan 10, 2017 9:53am Jan 10, 2017 9:53am
Quoting cat
All of us probably have stories about our trading journey that other traders can relate to, so, if you're struggling, need a bit of advice from like minded people, a bit of moral support, then this is the thread for you.
In my five years learning to trade, many of them spent on FF, the one thing I've returned to time and again is the issue of members who promote trading systems by posting (let's call them "learning") charts but with the entries already sitting somewhere far in profit. The result of course is that the method, and quite frankly, the poster's intentions, are not verifiable.

There's been plenty of debate on this and I'm well aware of both sides of the argument, however, I don't personally see any change in behaviour of those either indulging in the sort of posting I mention, or those seeking it out. In fact, I see the situation becoming gradually worse; so much so that I'm now reaching the conclusion that these Pied Piper types that come into the forums with an agenda (mostly narcissistic I would say) do so without even needing to promote themselves that hard any more because their victims all seem so willing. A truly bizarre situation.

I would say to all traders who are trying to learn but are keeping company with those "traders" who are either unwilling to discuss setups in advance, only ever post charts with active trades in profit, or talk in riddles, if you have found yourself in a very uncomfortable place psychologically, dogged by a form of cognitive dissonance that can best be described by the conflict born out of the question, How can it be so difficult when this or that guy is making it look so easy? then you really need to take a reality check, and be very honest with your inner-voice. If you're inner-voice has reservations about the company you're keeping, I would say you're inner-voice has got a point.

I don't have any solutions to offer those suffering in this position, but I do think the phenomena is very real and needs discussing. I believe that most of the people frequenting these forums are intelligent and savvy, and in their "real" life wouldn't accept the sort of stuff that goes on here. Why then do so many accept it online?
  • #114
  • Jan 10, 2017 10:40am Jan 10, 2017 10:40am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} In my five years learning to trade, many of them spent on FF, the one thing I've returned to time and again is the issue of members who promote trading systems by posting (let's call them "learning") charts but with the entries already sitting somewhere far in profit. The result of course is that the method, and quite frankly, the poster's intentions, are not verifiable. There's been plenty of debate on this and I'm well aware of both sides of the argument, however, I don't personally see any change in behaviour of those either indulging...
I'd like to illustrate this post with a live chart:

GBPJPY M15.

I look for supply and demand zones in the market, and when these present themselves and price tests then gives the PA that I personally look for, I enter the market as long as there is a reasonable profit target and the risk is acceptable.

In terms of being able to "verify" this most basic method of trading, I can't - moreover, I wouldn't. I think the honest thing to do is post the levels in advance of them being tested and then it's over to the individuals interested to do their own due diligence, which mostly means watching PA unfold. In my view this is the best way to try and help others to learn. And again, without over-stating it, I truly believe that a large part of the reason why traders find themselves in trouble is due to others confusing them in their learning process, and mostly with "after-the-fact" charts that offer no context or value in terms of a contemporaneous learning process.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_3.png Size: 28 KB
  • #115
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:06am Jan 10, 2017 11:06am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} In my five years learning to trade, many of them spent on FF, the one thing I've returned to time and again is the issue of members who promote trading systems by posting (let's call them "learning") charts but with the entries already sitting somewhere far in profit. The result of course is that the method, and quite frankly, the poster's intentions, are not verifiable. There's been plenty of debate on this and I'm well aware of both sides of the argument, however, I don't personally see any change in behaviour of those either indulging...
Sorry Simon2002, as your post is just a tad loquacious ( something I'm all too guilty of ) , I'm struggling to identify your main point. Are you referring to ff members promoting just ' systems ', or advice. As with systems, I think we all know the answer, but explanatory charts should be harmless or do you refer to these as well. As for posting ' Active ' trades in profit, presumable showing entry, proposed exit etc, who but the longer term traders, are going to have the time and/or the inclination to post these charts in the middle of a trade. Even if they did, what help would this be over the historical chart? If I understand you correctly, you are criticizing traders, perhaps such as myself, who post explanatory charts etc without actually having verified themselves as profitable traders, bona fide traders, which is a fair point to make, I just want to be sure of the point you are actually making.
  • #116
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:15am Jan 10, 2017 11:15am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} I'd like to illustrate this post with a live chart: GBPJPY M15. I look for supply and demand zones in the market, and when these present themselves and price tests then gives the PA that I personally look for, I enter the market as long as there is a reasonable profit target and the risk is acceptable. In terms of being able to "verify" this most basic method of trading, I can't - moreover, I wouldn't. I think the honest thing to do is post the levels in advance of them being tested and then it's over to the individuals interested to do...
Simon2002, what, if you don't mind me asking, is anyone supposed to garner from the chart that you have posted, as it shows nothing except candlesticks and 2 alert zones. For this chart to be helpful to anyone, you need to give some indication of why you put these alert zones where you did, assuming you did indeed place them ahead of the price. Without this info, this chart is pretty meaningless, to me at least.
  • #117
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:59am Jan 10, 2017 11:59am
i'm in trouble right now. losing shit loads of money..

should i

a. divorce my family
b. do 3 lines of crack
c. go on FF to find support
d. jump off a 5ft ledge
e. just keep trading and lose more money
  • #118
  • Jan 10, 2017 12:02pm Jan 10, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Sorry Simon2002, as your post is just a tad loquacious ( something I'm all too guilty of ) , I'm struggling to identify your main point. Are you referring to ff members promoting just ' systems ', or advice. As with systems, I think we all know the answer, but explanatory charts should be harmless or do you refer to these as well. As for posting ' Active ' trades in profit, presumable showing entry, proposed exit etc, who but the longer term traders, are going to have the time and/or the inclination to post these charts in the middle of...
No problem cat. Please don't think I'm criticising you because I'm not. At the end of the day, I believe that traders who put in the work by opening and moderating their own threads are free to do whatever they like. If people wish to follow, so be it. I have no problem with that at all. The issue I'm talking about is very specific but quite prevalent - at least in my own experience. It relates to traders who swoop into established threads and disrupt the flow of learning by posting only results, or even signals, and then rapidly gain a following all hopeful that they're going to somehow achieve success by a form of osmosis, but in the end, crash and burn.

Sure, the original point is loquaciously made, but this is often the case when trying to remain diplomatic. The best I can succinctly say is that there are no shortcuts in this game and I would suggest that if those finding themselves in deep trouble are still able to be completely honest with themselves then it's imperative they ask the question, Am I investing my learning time in what seems to me to be a legitimate source? My suggestion is that many following the type of poster I describe will eventually answer, No.
  • #119
  • Jan 10, 2017 12:03pm Jan 10, 2017 12:03pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Simon2002, what, if you don't mind me asking, is anyone supposed to garner from the chart that you have posted, as it shows nothing except candlesticks and 2 alert zones. For this chart to be helpful to anyone, you need to give some indication of why you put these alert zones where you did, assuming you did indeed place them ahead of the price. Without this info, this chart is pretty meaningless, to me at least.
I think unless you are professing to teach your method of trading there is really no need tp post charts, unless you do it in the trading journals to keep
a record of your past trades good & bad. A trading log to learn from & remove errors from your trading and hone your skills.
I don't think anybody owes anyone here free lessons on how to trade, unless of course you are promoting your motives to become commercial later.
Trading is an art form in many cases, and we are dealing in probabilities in every scenario of what could happen next.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #120
  • Jan 10, 2017 12:04pm Jan 10, 2017 12:04pm
Quoting hilmy83
i'm in trouble right now. losing shit loads of money.. should i a. divorce my family b. do 3 lines of crack c. go on FF to find support d. jump off a 5ft ledge e. just keep trading and lose more money
Is this a serious post hilmy?
0 traders viewing now