Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

All of my positions is closed now. All of them was stopped out with a positive stop loss. Also I am satisfied with my profits for the day.

MT4 Demo FXCM Demo account - total profit for today $ 2 582.52.
Total profits since I opened my account on the 27th of December $ 7 167.57

I find it easier to trade on MT4, so I guest that is why the profits on MT4 is more than Trading Station.

Trading Station FXCM Demo Account - total profit for today $ 1 454.45
Total profits since I opened the account on the 27th of December $ 4 614.09

Thank you Benjamin for the opportunity to learn the Fundamentals/Money Flow & Risk Management and all you teach on this thread and also thanks to Davit with his pivots and technical analyses. This is truly a mean combination.

Read it, it can be fun! https://dailyreckoning.com/91423-2/

Here is the news and yes WE shall Rock & Roll !!


There have been numerous eruptions of irrational exuberance since Alan Greenspan launched the modern era of monetary central planning in response to the 25% crash of the stock market in October 1987.

But for my money, the Trump-O-Mania since the wee hours of election night is the greatest folly of all.


That’s because Donald Trump is destined to be history’s Great Disruptor — not the 11th hour savior of the mutant financial system and giant bubbles that have been generated by our Wall Street/Washington rulers over the past three decades.


The latter is a product of massive financial asset inflation fueled by the Fed’s cheap debt, falsified financial prices and the tidal wave of Wall Street speculation they have induced.

But the Fed (and its convoy of central bank imitators around the world) is finally out of dry powder. If it resumes quantitative easing (QE) preemptively to thwart the now incipient recession, it will generate a panicked sell-off — stoking fears in the casino that it “knows” something the gamblers don’t.


Likewise, if it even hints at reversing course toward sub-zero interest rates, it will bring the aroused populations of Flyover America, which elected Donald Trump, descending upon the Imperial City with torches and pitchforks.


The savers and retirees of America have already been so severely savaged by 96 months of zero interest rates (ZIRP) that they are not about to take it any more or have their savings flat-out confiscated by the elitist fools who inhabit Eccles Building.


In short, after having impaled itself on the zero bound and hideously bloating its balance sheet — from $900 billion to $4.4 trillion since the Lehman event in September 2008 — the Fed has no capacity whatsoever to forestall the oncoming recession or reflate the economy and financial markets once it begins.

The market should currently be in panicked retreat because it is inconceivable that the Donald will appoint to the Fed even more aggressive money-pumpers than the paralyzed posse currently in command, led by clueless Janet Yellen.

But in one of the most ludicrous stick saves ever confected in the bowels of Wall Street, the day traders and robo-machines have been induced to slam the “buy” button on a theory so preposterous that even CNBC’s chief circus barker, Jim Cramer, could not have invented it.

That is, the notion that Donald Trump is the second coming of Ronald Reagan and that a huge deficit-fueled “stimulus” is just around the corner is just plain nuts.

There will be no such thing.

Trump-O-Mania is the greatest eruption of irrational exuberance yet because it occurred in the wake of an election outcome that is a repudiation of the very regime of Bubble Finance from which it took flight.

Donald Trump’s shocking election victory was in fact due to the fact that the nation’s economic prospects and future growth potential has dimmed dramatically since 1987.

Since the Greenspan era of Bubble Finance began in October 1987, the value of corporate equities owned by households has soared from $1.8 trillion to nearly$15 trillion, representing a 7.5%annual gain.

That means that equity values have increased 65% faster than the 4.5% annual gain in GDP during the same 29-year period.

There’s a word for that sort of imbalance: unsustainable. Does anyone with a pair of brain cells to rub together think it can last much longer?

But the greatest headwind Trump faces is his wildly inconsistent and irresponsible fiscal program. It will not result in a smooth hand-off the “stimulus” baton from the Fed to fiscal policy and the vaunted “Trump Stimulus” as Wall Street so blithely expects.

Instead, it will actually produce a political conflagration and Fiscal Bloodbath like the Imperial City has never before witnessed. Trump’s already facing Congressional opposition to his spending plans and Inauguration Day is still two weeks off.

Thanks wayfarer

I look forward to learning. In the meantime, going through the thread, I deduce risk off literally means sell usd/jpy and money goes to the safe haven which is Gold. Risk on is vice versa. I also read on page 1 where you mentioned that Silver is the better store of value. and theres shortage... so why is silver that cheap compared to Gold.
Reading, http://finviz.com/news.ashx what do you make of a plethora of news. I guess it comes with experience

Thanks for your questions because that is the only way that we can learn. The questions also help me to focus in on the answers and If I happen to not be sure then, I will research it further and answer your question so we both have learned.

All Risk Off means is that whatever Asset Class is purchased when movements in Assets Classes as represented by the 18 Currency Pairs which include Copper and Gold and Silver and Oil which are factually commodities GO DOWN then funds seek Safe Haven.

The DIFFERENCE when we have RISK OFF is where does the Money Flow to when safety of Assets is needed and the first place is the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. There are also 5 Year US Bonds and 30 Year US Bonds. Depending on the type of Risk (GEOPOLITICAL) is one it might go to Gold and Silver.

Since the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) is considered a safe currency some funds go there. They also go to Market Money funds.

Why there is CORRELATION with USD/JPY and US 30 is because the Yen is considered a Carry Trade Currency where the rate of interest or return is below zero the larger funds that go there just invest it elsewhere where they get Higher Yield.

As for your question on Silver and Gold , I will answer that in another post. That gets off the main topic here. If you have any follow up questions then please ask me.

Thank You !!!


Benjaminis

I have closed all my positions earlier today and I am all in CASH and will not trade again today since my Mood is great and I have no need to trade just because I had a good day. I opened my FXCM UK Demo Account having $50,000 US Dollars in it and I stated my Goal is to earn 10% for the month of Forex Trading.

My account will have been opened 21 days tomorrow. It was opened on December 20, 2016.

I did a total of 16 Forex trades and my 2 losses were for $90 US Dollars and $94.82 US Dollars.

My Net Winnings are now $8039.91 US Dollars , OVER 16% to date. I say that I earn 10% however the usual number is closer to 20% each month.

I will post my summary page from the FXCM UK so you can see it !!!


Benjaminis

Commission-48.00


Rollover Fee-877.10


Profit/Loss of Trade 8,965.01


Deposit 50,000.00


Ending Balance 58,039.91

Equity 58,039.91

Necessary Margin 0.00

Usable Margin 58,039.91


Notes:
"THIS IS A DEMO ACCOUNT WHICH IS TRADED WITH VIRTUAL FUNDS. NO REAL MONEY IS USED IN TRADING THIS ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are used primarily for education purposes, testing of strategies, and familiarizing traders with market movement and the FX Trading Station. There are inherent risks associated with online trading that may arise due to downtime, currency fluctuation and other risks associated with currency speculation. Only risk capital should be used when trading a real account."

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...tm_campaign=em

Snippet:

USD/CNH: Is a New Trend Setting In?
Monday, Jan 9, 2017 1:56 pm EST Mon Jan 09 18:56:00 GMT 2017
by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist and Renee Mu, Currency Analyst


This daily digest focuses on Yuan rates, major Chinese economic data, market sentiment, new developments in China’s foreign exchange policies, changes in financial market regulations, as well as market news typically available only in Chinese-language sources.

- The offshore Yuan remained stronger than the PBOC’s guided level as well as the onshore Yuan.
- China’s foreign reserves continued to drop in December 2016 but maintained above $3 trillion.



Yuan Rates
- The Yuan’s overnight borrowing cost in Hong Kong dropped to 14.05% on Monday from 61.33% last Friday, though still significantly above an average daily rate of 2.86% in 2016. The PBOC weakened the Yuan by -594 pips or -0.87% against the U.S. Dollar on the day, the largest drop by percentage since June 2016. Despite cheaper borrowing costs and a weaker guidance for the Yuan, the USD/CNH failed to break above its prior swing-high amid an unclear outlook of the U.S. Dollar. As of 10:20am EST, the offshore Yuan traded at 6.8771 against the Dollar, which was stronger than the onshore Yuan, trading at 6.9344.
USD/CNH 240-mintues

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...y_USDCNH_1.png
Prepared by Renee Mu.
Our Currency Strategist Michael Boutros gave out the technical setup for the USD/CNH in the near term.
USD/CNH 1-day
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...NH_Daily_1.png
Prepared by Michael Boutros.
USDCHN turned from slope resistance early in the year on building bearish divergence. The pair failed to hold below near-term slope support last week with the subsequent rebound now testing confluence resistance around 6.8844- this level is defined by the 50% retracement of the decline off last week’s high, the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation & parallel resistance extending off the 3/16 high.

The broader risk remains weighted to the downside while within this near-term slope with our bearish invalidation level set to 6.9452. A rally surpassing this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Key support remains with the lows we made last week with a trendline confluence converging on that level over the next few days at 6.7818. A move below the 61.8% retracement at 6.7585 would suggest a more meaningful correction is underway with such a scenario targeting 6.6820-6.6950.

- In terms of the value against a basket of currencies, the Yuan strengthened in the first week of 2017, based on all three Yuan indexes: The CFETS Yuan Index, BIS Yuan Index and SDR Yuan Index rose +0.42%, +0.39% and +0.57% respectively to 95.25, 96.63 and 96.97.
On Monday, the PBOC published a statement addressing that “the Yuan was basically stable against a basket of currencies in 2016”: The annualized volatility for CFETS Yuan Index in 2016 was 2.8%, lower than the 3.6% in the Dollar/Yuan fix. Looking forward, the regulator says that Trump’s policies, which may impact the outlook of the U.S. Dollar, “remain to be seen”. The PBOC expects that the Yuan will be able to maintain basically stable within a reasonable range while floating with increased flexibility.

Key Yuan Indicators
- China’s foreign reverses dropped to $3.0105 trillion in December from $3.0516 trillion in November, slightly better than a forecast of $3.0100 trillion by Bloomberg. The print held just above the psychological level of $3 trillion.
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png
Data downloaded from Bloomberg; chart prepared by Renee Mu.
However, the real test for the country’s foreign holdings comes in early 2017, after individuals’ annual quota renewed: Chinese citizens are allowed to exchange up to $50,000 in foreign currencies in a new year. The tightened oversight announced by China’s FX regulator recently may slow down the pace of such purchases impacting foreign reserves. The January-2017 print to be released between February 6th and 7th will give out more clues on whether the key indicator can maintain above the $3 trillion threshold under renewed pressure.

On Monday, a member from the PBOC’s Monetary Policy Committee, Fan Gang, commented on China’s foreign reserves. He said that the Central Bank wants China’s foreign reserves to gradually decline. In terms of capital controls, he said that current policies have been working; China is neither likely to further tighten controls nor fully give up intervention.

Market News
Sina News: China’s most important online media source, similar to CNN in the US. They also own a Chinese version of Twitter, called Weibo, with around 200 million active users monthly.
- China’s property market had a weak opening in 2017 amid the introduction of numerous cooling measures over the past three months. According to China Index Academy, sales in the four tier-one cities dropped -6.08% month-over-month or -4.28% year-over-year in the first week of 2017. Sales in 14 surveyed tier-two cities fell even more, with a monthly decline of -38.49% and an annualized drop of -20.09%.
To receive reports from this analyst,sign up for Renee Mu’ distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

https://dailyreckoning.com/nomi-prin...y+Reckoning%29

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lon...teid=rss&rss=1

Snippet:

Investors cast wary eye toward China
Time (EST)6:009:009 Jan3:006:009:0012:003:00
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%
http://i.mktw.net/_newsimages/2014_d...nolfi2_100.png
By
JOSEPHADINOLFI
MARKETS REPORTER

Treasurys rebounded on Monday following Friday’s dramatic selloff as investors second-guessed their expectations for growth and inflation in 2017.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.00% shed four basis points to 2.377%, while the yield on the 30-year bond TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.60% lost basis 3.1 basis points to 2.971%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The two-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, -2.64% finished 2.2 basis points lower at 1.168%, after rising earlier in the session.

Investors are looking ahead to comments from a bevy of Federal Reserve officials this week. On Friday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said it’s possible the central bank could raise interest rates three times this year. The yield on the two-year note TMUBMUSD02Y, -2.64% rose 3.6 basis points to 1.202%. In a set of projections released in December, a plurality of Fed policy makers said they expect three hikes in 2017.

Speaking on Monday in Hartford, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren sounded hawkish, saying economic conditions are likely to warrant “somewhat more regular” increases in short-term interest rates. However, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the December projections didn’t represent the Fed’s official view and that expectations that growth will accelerate beyond 2% are probably unrealistic.

Rosengren, Lockhart and Evans don’t have a vote on the Fed’s policy setting committee this year.

TimeU.S. 10 Year Treasury NoteMar 16May 16Jul 16Sep 16Nov 16Jan 17

BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
1.5%2.0%2.5%1.0%3.0%
A postelection bond-market selloff has faded in recent weeks as investors judged that increasing inflation expectations, driven in part by President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals, have been largely priced in.
“Reflation is becoming a very contentious trade,” said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager with Penn Mutual Asset Management. (The so-called “reflation trade” is when stocks rise and bonds fall.)

Read: Is it finally time for the inflation trade?
Investors are also warming to the notion that fiscal stimulus and tax cuts might not be enough to overcome the inherently deflationary impact of automation and falling productivity, Ren added.

Recent volatility in the Chinese yuan has captured the attention of some investors, according to several market strategists. Some worry that the swings in the currency is the result of a tug of war between the People’s Bank of China, which is seeking to support its battered currency, and hedge funds, which are adding to their bets against it.

Data released over the weekend showed that China continued to liquidate its foreign-currency reserves last month to help support its currency. China’s foreign holdings peaked in June 2014, and they’ve burned through roughly a quarter of their reserves since.
“This trend, coupled with the incoming administration’s protectionist stance on international trade emphasizes the risks from this region as we contemplate the headwinds facing the global economy,” said Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli, fixed-income strategists at BMO Capital Markets, in a research note published Monday.
The yuan USDCNY, +0.2746% traded at 6.93 to the dollar on Monday, compared with 6.92 on Friday.

Investors are looking ahead to auctions of 10- and 30-year bonds, which Lyngen and Kohli said will be a crucial test of foreign demand for U.S. debt. Retail-sales data for December—the highlight of this week’s economic calendar—will be released on Friday.

I. Gold Miners are Literally Running Out of Gold
We all learned about supply and demand in our first week of economics class. When the price of something rises because of demand, more supply is rushed to the market and the price stabilizes. The demand is satisfied at a new equilibrium. Like most things were taught in economics class, this model is badly flawed especially when it comes to gold. Thats because gold has both a physical market (actual gold bullion), and a much larger synthetic market (paper gold such as futures and ETFs). Gold prices are dominated in the short-run by the synthetic paper gold market; physical supply is mostly irrelevant. Players on the physical side are price takers, not price makers. This has been true for years, but now the tables may be turning. Ive received first-hand reports of shortages of physical gold from refiners. Vault operators have told me physical gold holders are taking gold out of banks and putting it into private vaults where it is no longer available to prop up the paper market. In this article, youll see that now even the miners are saying theyre running out of gold. Due to the price decline since 2011, new mines are not opening, output from existing mines is declining, old mines are being shut-in, capex is being cut, and reserves are being reduced. Were heading for a crack-up where physical shortages will cause delivery failures and ignite panic buying of physical gold that even the paper market cant contain. This article explains why. The paper market is doing physical buyers a favor by keeping the price artificially low, making the entry point attractive. A gold price super-spike is coming. The time to get your gold is now.



II. The Last Property Bubble was in U.S. Supbprime. Now its a Global Bubble.
After the liquidity crises in 1998 and 2008, you might expect that market participants would learn their lessons about derivatives, leverage, non-transparency, and runaway banker greed. That never happens. After both crises, policymakers allowed banks to revert to their old tricks on an even larger scale. (Thats partly because the policymakers often go to work for large banks after they leave government to line their pockets before the next crash. Think of Republican Senator Phil Graham becoming Vice Chairman of UBS or Democratic Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin becoming head of Citigroup. There are many other examples). Today the too-big-to-fail banks are bigger and more concentrated than ever. So, its no surprise that asset bubbles are emerging that will make the 2008 crisis look like a stroll in the park on a sunny day. In 2008, the capital markets were almost wiped out by defaults in subprime U.S. residential mortgages. Click here to see how this time the property asset bubble is global, including high-end real estate, commercial office space, and warehouse facilities. (Subprime is under control, but thats small compared to prime housing and commercial real estate. Its never exactly the same twice.) This real estate bubble is in addition to all of the other bubbles in stocks, emerging markets corporate debt, high-yield, Chinese credit, and developed economy sovereign debt. Cash, gold, and silver may be the only true safe havens when the next crisis hits, probably soon.



III. Now Another Country is Getting Ready to Make Cash Illegal
Weve all read and heard a lot lately about the war on cash. Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff even wrote an entire book on the subject called The Curse of Cash. Of course, Rogoff is on the side of those who want to eliminate cash. Then, savers can be herded into digital cattle pens at mega-banks and slaughtered with negative interest rates, fees, confiscations, asset freezes, and bail-ins when things get rough. Europe recently eliminated the 500 euro note and Australia began a legislative process to eliminate its $100 note. The most notorious cases were in Venezuela and India where the government simply declared the largest and most widely used denominations to be illegal overnight. In Venezuela, it was the 100 bolivar note, and in India it was the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. The result was chaos, long lines at banks, collapsing commerce, and some looting. Now, click here to read how Pakistan is adding its name to the list with a proposal to eliminate its own 5,000 rupee note. Governments justify these actions by claiming to fight terrorists and tax evasion. The truth is they want to convert all commerce and money to digital form so honest citizens can more easily be kept under surveillance, and so that accounts can be frozen in the next financial panic, and hit with negative interest rates in the meantime. For now, the only alternatives are non-digital assets such as gold, silver, land, and fine art.



IV. Gold Confiscations Have Begun in EuropeThe U.S. May Not Be Far Behind.
As the war on cash grows more intense, citizens naturally turn to gold as a way to preserve wealth without fear of digital asset freezes and negative interest rates. So, it was just a matter of time before the war on cash converted into a war on gold. Thats happening now. Click here for the EUs recent announcement for stepped-up surveillance of physical gold coming into the EU, and its plans to seize the gold on mere suspicion without any proof of bad intent. Ironically, many Jews escaped the holocaust in Europe during the 1930s by sewing gold into the linings of their coats and dresses so that they would have some ability to pay for safe passage, and preserve some wealth after their escape. The first time I bought gold bullion I waited in line behind two Jews in their late eighties who escaped the holocaust that way. They were still accumulating gold sixty-five years later! This EU gold action is just the tip of the iceberg. The war on cash has been going on for a while (the U.S. eliminated the $500 bill in the late 1960s). But authorities are just waking up to the fact that honest citizens can still convert from cash to gold in order to escape the digital slaughterhouse the banks have planned. The war on gold has begun in earnest. The time to acquire physical gold is now while you still can.



V. Chinas Losing Battle to Keep From Going Broke
China is going broke. This statement comes as a shock to those who have heard over-and-over that China is a rising economic superstar and will soon be the greatest economy on earth, surpassing the U.S. in the #1 role. How can China go broke? The math is simple. In round numbers, China started 2015 with about $4 trillion in hard currency reserves. About $1 trillion fled the country in 2015 and 2016 based on fears of yuan devaluation.

Thats classic capital flight. Another $1 trillion is relatively illiquid, including direct investments in mines and natural resources through sovereign wealth funds such as China Investment Corporation. Thats wealth, but its not money if needed in a liquidity crisis (in fact, valuations would crash in a crisis). Finally, $1 trillion has to be held as a precautionary reserve to bail-out Chinas insolvent banks, and Ponzi-style wealth management products. Failure to bail-out the banks and WMPs could lead to social unrest that would topple Communist rule, so that wont be allowed. That leaves only $1 trillion of the original $4 trillion in liquid form.


The problem is that capital flight is continuing at a rate of $1 trillion per year, so China will be devoid of usuable liquid assets by late 2017. Under standard impossible trinity analysis, Chinas only policy choices to keep from going broke are devaluation, capital controls, or interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates would trigger a credit crisis, so theyre off the table. Yuan devaluation is happening in baby steps, but that may soon turn into a one-time maxi-devaluation of 30% or more to stop the bleeding. In the meantime, this article explains how China is using weak capital controls to slow down the outflows. History shows that weak capital controls may be worse that no controls because they send a message of no confidence while not really stopping the outflows. The mother of all liquidity crises is coming to China sooner than most realize.




All the best,
http://duip7hn7nchpo.cloudfront.net/...m-rickards.jpg
Jim Rickards

A MUST WATCH - HIGHLY RECOMMENDED - About 31 Minutes and please post your feedback after so I know that you understand what was said. Thank You.


Benjaminis

In summary; Big trouble is looming on the horizon for USD. America is broke! Financial system may collapse, possibility of bankruptcy etc (scary)
Going by the aforementioned, it seems sell USD rally is the new trend.
Silver is undervalued! He somewhat answered my previous question of why silver is the better store of value than gold.

https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-empir...gold-standard/

The U.S. will never go back on a gold standard. The notion that a U.S. Dollar backed by gold would solve our financial problems is pure folly. Why? Because, if the U.S. Empire didn’t abandon the gold standard in 1971, it would have collapsed decades ago.


Unfortunately, some of the top experts in the precious metals community continue to suggest that revaluing gold much higher, to say…. $15,000-$50,000 an ounce, would bring confidence back into the Dollar. Not only will this not happen, it wouldn’t save the Dollar even if it did.


Why? Well, that is the $10.5 trillion question, isn’t it? I provided that exact $10.5 trillion figure for good reason… which I will get to shortly, but the innate value of the U.S. Dollar died decades ago and will never come back. Basically, it is a DEAD MAN WALKING.


However, the market hasn’t figured that out yet, but it will. It is just a matter of time, and time is running out.

Hugo Salinas Price Was The Motivation For Writing This Article
As I mentioned in prior articles, Hugo Salinas Price has been keeping an eye on International Reserves for many years. In his recent article, A Reversal In The Trend Of International Reserves, he stated the following:
International Reserves peaked on August 1, 2014, at $12.032 Trillion dollars, and as of October 28, 2016 they stood at $11.066 Trillion dollars.

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...lnas-Price.png

When a trend has been firmly in place in the world for 45 years, a reversal of that trend must be the result of a profound change which will produce a new trend that will not be easily altered, just as the previous trend was unalterable for 45 years. The new trend is deflation, contraction of credit.

According to my analysis in a recent article, The Implosion Of The Global Markets Has Started & Can’t Be Stopped, the reason the International Reserves peaked and declined, was due to the price of oil falling below $100 in August 2014 and then crashing to $30 by the beginning of 2016:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...14-768x460.png

As we can see in the chart, when the price of oil fell below $100, it gutted the oil and goods producing countries economies. Thus, these countries had to sell off their Reserves (U.S. Treasuries and etc) to offset the losses from a collapsing oil price. Indeed, this was the very DEFLATION Hugo Salinas Price stated in his article.

Since that article, Hugo and I have had several email exchanges. In one of our exchanges, he brought to my attention the amount of gold the U.S. would have had to liquidate just to import one million barrels of oil per day. Looking at his calculations, it turned out to be one hell of a lot of gold.

So, I decided to look into this in more detail to get a better idea of HOW MUCH GOLD would have been liquidated and sold into the market to support the U.S. Empire’s insatiable oil consumption.

Let me tell you, it’s a great deal more than I ever imagined.

The Total Dollar Amount Of U.S. Net Oil Imports Was Quite Large
If we totaled the Dollar amount of U.S. net oil imports since 1973, the figure is staggering to say the least. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) data on U.S. net oil imports, the United States spent a stunning $4.8 trillion on its net oil imports from 1973 to 2015. I wanted to provide data going back until 1971, but the EIA’s data for U.S. net oil imports only went back until 1973:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...mport-Cost.png

The figures in this chart were calculated by taking the annual average daily net oil imports, multiplying it by the average Brent Crude oil price and then by 365 days per year. For example, the U.S. spent a record $394 billion on its net oil imports in 2008:
2008 = 11,114,000 barrels per day (x) $97.26 (x) 365 days = $394 billion

While this may not seem like a lot when we compare it to our highly inflated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $14.2 trillion in 2008, it turns out to be one heck of a lot of gold when we consider it in respect to our balance of trade deficits.

But, before we get into that, let’s look at a chart of annual U.S. net oil imports since 1973:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...3-2015-NEW.png

As we can see from the chart above, U.S. net oil imports peaked at 12.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005. According to the EIA, the U.S. consumed 20.8 mbd of petroleum in 2005. Thus, our net oil imports of 12. 5 mbd were roughly two-thirds (60%) of our total demand that year.

Furthermore, U.S. net oil imports totaled 124 billion barrels from 1973 to 2015. Again, the total Dollar amount of these net oil imports during that time period was $4.8 trillion. Even thought that figure may not even raise an eyebrow today, if we consider what it means in “Gold terms”, it’s off the charts.

U.S. Net Oil Imports Cost More Gold Than Entire Global Gold Holdings
If we look at the data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), total global gold holdings were 171,300 metric tons in 2011:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...dings-2011.png

If we include the global gold mine supply from 2012 to 2015, it totaled 12,200 metric tons. So, if we add that figure to the world gold holdings of 171,300 metric tons, we end up with a grand total of 183,500 metric tons.
Yes, this is just an estimate of all known world gold holdings. While some readers may believe there are more like 1-2 million metric tons of gold in the world, due to the work of several precious metals analysts… I DON’T BUY IT. Why? Because the facts provide the real answer when we look at cumulative gold production since 1493:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...493-2014-2.png

Even though this stirs up fanciful “conspiracy theories” such as Yamashita’s massive gold treasure as well as the supposed hidden Nazi gold hoard, the world cannot hold more gold than it could produce. Well, maybe it could if we had the help of Aliens from distant planets. While some readers may actually believe Aliens would come down here and mine gold for us, logic suggests that they would likely have much more important things to do with their time.


Anyhow, the chart above reveals that 166,640 metric tons of gold were mined between 1493 and 2014. If we add what was mined during ancient times, it is logical to assume (estimate) that the world may contain the 183,500 metric tons of gold.


Unfortunately, even though logic can easily destroy lousy conspiracy theories, folks continue to believe them as fact, regardless. When I get into a logical debate with someone who continues to believe in a lousy conspiracy, I shut up, because there is no use in going further. While conspiracies do take place in this crazy world of ours, not everything is a conspiracy.

That being said, let’s look at how much gold the United States would have had to liquidate to pay for its net oil imports.
First, let’s look at the table below that shows the Gold-Oil price ratio from 1970 to 1980:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...atio-TABLE.png

The table displays the gold price, oil price and the ratio on the right. If we average the Gold-Oil price ratio for the 1970’s decade, we can see that one ounce of gold could purchase 14 barrels of oil.
Second, if we consider that the U.S. average net oil imports were 8 million barrels per day for the 43 year period (1973-2015), that would equate to a staggering 279,500 metric tons of gold:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...il-Imports.png

Yes, that is correct. If the United States stayed on the gold standard, it would have had to fork over 279,500 metric tons of gold to pay for its net oil imports during that 43 year period (1973-2015). This is much more than the 183,500 metric tons of known world gold holdings. Matter-a-fact, the U.S. would have needed almost 100,000 metric tons more of gold to pay for its net oil imports.

This is precisely the reason President Nixon had to abandon the convertibility of the U.S. Dollar into gold. While there are more factors to consider in the dropping of the Gold-Dollar Peg in 1971, oil was a leading cause.


Okay… I can hear it now from some readers. Yes, it is true that the United States took this oil and created goods or services that they exported. So, it makes some sense that not all of of our net oil imports would consume 279.500 metric tons of gold. However, when we look at additional information…. the situation is even worse.

The U.S. Cumulative Net Trade Deficit Since 1973 Was Far Worse Than Our Oil Import Cost
To make those who “doubt” the figures above, I decided to research the U.S. balance of trade since 1960. When I added up the total net trade deficits, I was more surprised than the figure of the net oil import cost.
This chart below represents the annual U.S. Balance Of Trade in Goods & Services since 1960:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...rvices-NEW.png

Looking at the top left-hand part of the chart, you will notice the tiny green smudges on the chart. These represent the U.S. trade surpluses. Here are a few of the annual trade surpluses (and deficits) during the 1960’s and early 1970’s:
U.S. Balance Of Trade

1. 1965 = $4.7 billion
2. 1966 = $2.9 billion
3. 1967 = $2.6 billion
4. 1968 = $250 million
5. 1969 = $91 million
6. 1970 = $2.2 billion
7. 1971 = -$1.3 billion
8. 1972 = -$5.4 billion

Well, look at that. In 1971, the U.S. began to suffer trade deficits. Even though the United States enjoyed a few more trade surpluses in 1973 & 1975, it ran consecutive deficits for the next 40 years, starting in 1976.


You will notice the trade surpluses were quite tiny compared to the deficits, especially after 2000. If we add up all the U.S. annual trade deficits from 1976 to 2015, it totaled an amazing $10.5 trillion. Basically, the U.S. Empire was able to bamboozle the world by exchanging worthless U.S. Dollars or Treasuries for energy or real goods and services.


Furthermore, the $4.8 trillion in U.S. net oil imports from 1973-2015 accounted for nearly 50% of the total U.S. trade deficit of $10.5 trillion. Which means, the U.S. Empire would have needed to FORK OVER even more gold if we consider the total cumulative $10.5 trillion trade deficit since 1976.

Does anyone actually believe the U.S. is going to make good on its $10.5 trillion in trade deficits. I am making an assumption here (as I have not taken the time to look at the data), but I image the $11 trillion of International Reserves shown in Hugo Salinas Price’s chart above, are mostly accumulated IOU’s from the U.S. Empire.
According to this article on Global Currency Reserves, the U.S. Dollar comprised 63% (in green) of the $11.6 trillion total as of the second half of 2014:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...erves-2014.jpg

Thus, 63% of the $11.6 trillion equates to $7.2 trillion in U.S. Dollar denominated International Reserves. Now, where is the other $3.3 trillion of U.S. IOU’s to account for the $10.5 trillion in the total U.S. trade deficit, I have no clue.


The U.S. Empire Would Have Collapsed Decades Ago If It Didn’t Drop The U.S. Gold Standard
As I stated in the beginning of the article, the U.S. Empire would have been TOAST decades ago if it didn’t drop the Dollar-Gold peg. In order for the United States to continue spreading its SUBURBAN LEECH & SPEND ECONOMY, it desperately needed to come up with a better way to do business than to fork over the rest of its 8,100 metric tons of gold reserves.

Actually, according to the data, U.S. net oil imports that averaged 8 million barrels per day during that 40+ year period, would have liquidated approximately 6,500 metric tons of gold a year. Here is that table again:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...il-Imports.png

Which means, the U.S. Government had to drop the gold standard, or it would have gone the way of present-day Venezuela decades ago. That may seem like a stretch to some readers, but keeping the world believing in the “ALMIGHTY U.S. DOLLAR” is job number one for the U.S. Treasury and government.


Now, I am not trying to be harsh against the U.S. government for its U.S. DOLLAR DIPLOMACY POLICIES… I am just stating the facts as I see them. When we look at the data and figures presented in this article, it is clear to see how vital it was for the United States to continue importing oil, without the cost in REAL MONEY… GOLD.

Again, the only way the U.S. Empire could continue business as usual, was to exchange worthless FIAT DOLLAR IOU’s for oil, rather than fork over gold that it didn’t have.

Especially, when the figures show that the U.S. Empire needed 279,500 metric tons of gold just to pay for its net oil imports. This turned out to be 100,000 metric tons more gold than the world holds.

This is why the Federal Reserve and Central Banks continue to manipulate the paper price of gold. Why? Because, the day the MUSIC FINALLY STOPS, the world will realize there is only one gold chair for the 100 people holding paper IOU’s.

Commentary from Benjaminis: A Incredible amount of work went into this article. I get an email from this writer every day free of charge so when I saw this tonight I decided to share it here. Now you also know.

Hello wayfarer

Can you update this chart as of the next time you log on ? Thanks and explain the boxes to me.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1483837439


Benjaminis

From my ORIGINAL LIST WITH THE PROPER CAPITALIZATION'S !!! AND User Numbers !!!

I am going to list those in order of signing up for the demo accounts with FXCM UK.


(1) DavidRP D102728560001

(2) dttsomh D102731143001

(3) Dildubai D102731452001

(4) KeepCalmfx D102742634001

(5) Rockey007 D25557124001

(6) raveon D102742734001

(7) wayfarer D102743041001

(8) Maximus2005 D102746118001

(9) mrmkg01 D25558223001

(10) mbleska D50785188

(11) vladimir8686 2971864

(12) carbonado D102754631001


I have a request to make to help everyone. Here is the list again of our 12 FXCM UK Demo Account holders. I will have a comment next to each name.


(1) DavidRP D102728560001 For DavidRP - Please Post here so I know that you are still interested.

(2) dttsomh D102731143001 For dttsomh - Thank You Very Much. A+

(3) Dildubai D102731452001 For Dildubai - Please Post here so that I know that you are still interested.

(4) KeepCalmfx D102742634001 For KeepCalmfx - Thank You Very Much. A+

(5) Rockey007 D25557124001 For Rockey007 - Good Luck In Your Forex Trading.

(6) raveon D102742734001 For raveon - I know you are interested I think. Please post on our thread and bring me up to date. Thanks.

(7) wayfarer D102743041001 For wayfarer - Thank You Very Much. A+

(8) Maximus2005 D102746118001 For Maximus2005 - I know about your work schedule however please try to post on our thread. Thank You.

(9) mrmkg01 D25558223001 For mrmkg01 - Please post on our thread - Thank You very much.

(10) mbleska D50785188 For mbleska - Please post on our thread. Thank You very much.

(11) vladimir8686 2971864 For vladimir8686 - I would love for you to become involved.

(12) carbonado D102754631001 For carbonado - Thanks for all your questions and posts and your involvement.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

U.S. tanks, trucks and other military equipment is are unloaded in the harbour of
Bremerhaven, Germany, January 8, 2017
“It does not help us if tanks will be going up and down on both sides of the border,” Brandenburg’s leader and SPD party member, Dietmar Woidke, told RBB. “I hope everyone will keep calm. I believe that despite all the difficulties, we should seek dialogue with Russia,” he added on Thursday, warning that relations with Moscow could worsen even further.
NATO’s buildup in Europe also came under fire from Germany’s Die Linke party. “Tanks do not create peace, anywhere,” Christian Grke stressed in a statement, RBB reported. Tobias Pflueger of Die Linke slammed the stationing of US tanks and military equipment in Poland, saying this will trigger an arms race and lead to an “escalation in relations with Russia,” Focus Online reported.
Crowds of people marched through Bremerhaven on Saturday to protest the deployment and transport of NATO troops and weapons through the city, RT reported. Hundreds of American tanks, trucks, and other military equipment bound for Poland, said to be the largest arms shipment since the fall of the Soviet Union, arrived at the German port on Friday to be transferred to Eastern Europe. The protesters marched through the city holding signs and banners reading, “No NATO deployments! End the militaristic march against Russia!” and “Out of NATO.”


“There is, starting from Washington DC, a major push to do everything possible in the next two weeks to create unending hostility between the West and Russia that can’t be undone by Donald Trump or anyone else. Even at the risk of open violence, rather than simply Cold War hostility. This is highly preferable to weapons profiteers as against actual peace breaking out, which is their greatest fear,” author and journalist David Swanson told RT on Monday.
“It is clearly an escalation that involves numerous facets including propaganda about Russian crimes in the US media; that includes shipping troops and equipment to the border; that includes expanding NATO and pushing hard on other NATO members to join in this escalation where you have serious protests in Germany by those who want peace [and are] against sending Germans or Americans from Germany eastward, as they should. There are not enough of us in the US similarly protesting,” he added.
Naturally, anyone who shares Swanson's view will be dubbed a purveyor of "fake news" and promptly deported to Russia on allegations of being a Russian spy.

From Benjaminis: This also is in the works !!!

On January 15, stage 3 will commence in Paris.

At France’s lame duck President François Hollande’s international conference, the foreign ministers of some 50 states are expected to adopt as their own Kerry’s anti-Israel principles.

The next day it will be Obama’s turn. Obama can be expected to use the occasion of Martin Luther King Jr. Day to present the Palestinian war to annihilate Israel as a natural progression from the American Civil Rights movement that King led 50 years ago.

Finally, sometime between January 17 and 19, Obama intends for the Security Council to reconvene and follow the gang at the Paris conference by adopting Kerry’s positions as a Security Council resolution. That follow-on resolution may also recognize “Palestine” and grant it full membership in the UN.

True, Kerry said the administration will not put forward another Security Council resolution.

But as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained in his response to Kerry’s address, there is ample reason to suspect that France or Sweden, or both, will put forth such a resolution. Since the draft will simply be a restatement of Kerry’s speech, Obama will not veto it.

Hi Benjamin,

Interesting read :-)

A few comments/opinions on some of the articles:

1- "Gold Miners are Literally Running Out of Gold"
***Similar to "peak oil" we've been reading about for decades? Gold is a currency & not a commodity IMHO so physical supply/demand has very little influence on price.

2-Large trade deficits will cause the US to collapse?
***Maybe, depending upon one's view. (http://www.investopedia.com/articles...below-textnote)
***I'm not smart enough to know.

3-Bill Holter
***Followed his writings for a couple years. Very heavily biased towards the "gold bugs". According to his previous predictions, the markets should have shut down after the fed raised rates the first 1/4 point :-)

4-"Gold Bugs"
***They need to keep telling all the "horror" stories to scare readers into buying physical gold. Most of them are in the business of selling gold or are being paid for writing about how gold is going to $$$$$$$$$$$ when the US$ collapses.
***I'm not smart enough to know.

Lots of opinions out there which I'm not wise enough to know what the future holds but just aware there's always 2 (or more) sides to every story :-)

IMHO, the biggest issue is the "DEBT EVERYWHERE" but WHEN does it matter??? Markets don't seem to care right now. Gold bugs will have their "time to shine" when the markets care but only if gold is still seen as the "ultimate currency" of "real" value. The India situation will be interesting to watch unfold with their "war on physical currency". China & Russia will also help determine golds fate at some point in the future.

***Full disclosure, I own a small amount of physical silver. Won't get rich if it goes to $$$$$ & won't go broke if it goes to 000000 :-)

Hello srt

It is very nice to see your post here. I agree with your thoughts and for sure the biggest issue is the DEBT and the Money Printing. Markets are really on the verge of collapse and behind the scenes President Elect Donald J. Trump , 45TH President of the USA and his cabinet and advisers surely know the markets will collapse and very quickly and then his people will manage a reorganization in Bankruptcy and that is his strength. Then former President Barak Obama will take the blame as he rightfully deserves.

We will see in 11 days !!! We have room for you in Canada in Quebec if you need a new more peaceful place to live. Take care of yourself.

Benjaminis

Hello,Benjaminis . I would like to draw attention to the reaction USDJPY. Why vapor responds to changes in asset prices before UsaInd? When the yield on the DJIA starts falling asset sale and sell dollars for jpy to buy another asset. Interest in the jpy and the lowest investors are payments in jpy. The jpy should be late from preschool?

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here is the charts for the day, I believe it is currently risk on, so no trade

There is no more import news schedule for the rest of the day.
This morning there was 2 important news releases.

AUD Retail Sales - was worse than expected
CNY (China Yuan) CPI release - less than expected.
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017...-5-5-annually/