Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

I want my group to start to do this yourself and all that you need to do is to click on this link and you can find the same things that I do. If you want to link an article that is fine. I can look at it and give my commentary so you get to think as I do since you are now aware of what is SPIN (PERCEPTION and REALITY)

http://finviz.com/news.ashx

Always give me feedback so we have an ongoing discussion. We have mild Risk Off now and there is no major news releases today.

You can also look at Gold and US Dollar Index and the US 10 Year Bonds.

Use the 5 Minute Charts for the Immediate View.

5 Minute Chart of US 30 from Finviz.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5


You also need to Monitor EUR/USD even if we are not trading it at the moment in our Four Trade Plans since it makes Up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

You can now see that the US Dollar Index is getting STRONGER SHORT TERM yet now we see part of the reason as it relates to EUR/USD.

5 Minute Chart US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Now we look at the US 10 Year Bonds to see if the US Bonds are selling off or being purchased to park money in the Billions and Trillions of Dollars as we either have Risk On or Risk Off and the 5 Minute Charts from Finviz lets you see that.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5




Benjaminis

Please look at this article and keep in mind what we discuss here about PERCEPTION (Markets Now) and REALITY (This Article and the US Economy)

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...closing-stores

Snippet:
It has only been two weeks since Christmas, and already we are witnessing a stunning bloodbath of store closings. Macys shocked the retail industry by announcing that they will be closing about 100 stores. The downward spiral of Sears hit another landmark when it was announced that another 150 Sears and Kmart stores would be shutting down. And we have just learned that The Limited is immediately closing all stores nationwide. If the U.S. economy is doing just fine, then why are we experiencing such a retail apocalypse? All over America, vast shopping malls that were once buzzing with eager consumers now resemble mausoleums. We have never seen anything quite like this in our entire history, and nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next.


Not too long ago I walked into a Macys, and it was eerily quiet. I stumbled around the mens department looking for something to buy, but I was deeply disappointed in what was being offered. After some time had passed, an employee finally noticed me and came over to help, but they didnt have anything that I was looking for.


And it is a sad thing, because over the past several years when I have gone into Macys looking to spend money, most of the time I have come out of there without spending a penny. Macys has made some very bad decisions recently, and I am hoping that they can still turn things around. But for the moment, they are closing stores and cutting jobs. The following comes from the New York Times

Struggling with sagging sales over another crucial holiday shopping season, Macys announced on Wednesday that it was eliminating more than 10,000 jobs as part of a continuing plan to cut costs and close 100 stores.

Macys, the countrys largest department store chain, said sales at its stores had fallen 2.1 percent in November and December compared with the same period in 2015. Terry J. Lundgren, the companys chairman and chief executive, said in a statement that while the trend was consistent with the lower end of our guidance, we had anticipated sales would be stronger.

Another legendary retailer that really does not have any hope left is Sears. Every year they just keep closing even more stores, and because they are losing so much money they dont have anything to invest in the stores that remain. As a result, the state of many Sears locations is downright embarrassing at this point

But the retailer, famous for selling everything from shoes to vacuum cleaners to whole houses, is facing its biggest crisis ever. Its closing hundreds of stores. Others are in shambles, with leaking ceilings and broken escalators. In some, employees hang bedsheets to shield shoppers from sections that stand empty.


Since the early portion of 2013, sales are down an astounding 37 percent for the company. Sears is currently more than 1.6 billion dollars in debt, and they are losing more than a billion dollars a year.


They keep closing stores in a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding, but it hasnt worked.
In 2010, Sears had 3,555 stores.

Last year, Sears had 1,503 stores, and now a whole bunch more are being shut down.
But everyone can see where this is going. As I have stated repeatedly, Sears is going to zero, and many of the experts completely agree with me
They are going out of business, said Van Conway, an expert in bankruptcy and debt restructuring and CEO of Van Conway & Partners. This snowball is 90% of the way to the bottom of the hill.

Of course Sears is still surviving for the moment, and that is more than can be said for The Limited.

Back in the old days, it seemed like every mall had one of their stores. I remember passing it on my way to Orange Julius and Hermans World of Sporting Goods.

But now they are shutting down every single location and will be online only

American malls just got emptier.

The Limited, a once-popular womens clothing brand that offers casual attire and workwear, no longer has any storefronts.

On Saturday, a message on the stores website read, Were sad to say that all The Limited stores nationwide have officially closed their doors. But this isnt goodbye. The website will still be up and running and will continue to ship nationwide, the company said.

In addition to Macys, Sears and The Limited, other huge names in the retail industry have also fallen on hard times and have had to shut stores over the past 12 months. The following comes from the Washington Post

The retail environment has proved challenging for a variety of stores: Sports Authority went out of business in 2016, shuttering more than 460 locations in U.S. malls and strip malls. PacSun, Aeropostale and American Apparel each have filed for bankruptcy protection in the past year and are aiming to reorganize and revive their businesses.


So why is this happening?

Without a doubt, our shopping habits have changed. And in the online world, many of these retailers are being absolutely crushed by competition from Amazon and other tech companies that developed online infrastructure before they did. I know that my wife and I actually prefer to shop online for many things when possible, and I anticipate that the share of retailing done online will only continue to grow in this country.

But let us also not underestimate the impact that the stagnating economy is having on ordinary consumers. Thanks to the last eight years, approximately two-thirds of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. More than a third of all Americans have a debt that is at least 180 days past due, and the rate of homeownership has been hovering near the lowest level that we have seen in about 50 years.


As you read this article, more than 95 million Americans are not in the labor force, and that number has grown by 18 percent under Barack Obama. Homelessness in New York City and other major cities is at a record high, and as a nation we have accumulated the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world.


Let us hope that things can be turned around, but if current trends continue the retail apocalypse is just going to go from bad to worse, and we will continue to see lots of headlines about more stores closing down.

Commentary from Benjaminis: So now WE can put the last NFP numbers in the proper context. The UI rate went up to 4.7% What about the 95 Million Americans NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE ?

hello benjiminis......i mistakingly sold gu today while i wanted to sell us30......i did not know you still have to pick the you want to sell even though you have the chart of us30 running.....so i cancelled it...then i sold us30.....however i cancelled it...at +1.....reason is some folks showed up at my place,hence distraction,i just cancelled it...tomorrow is another day.

One very important thing that ALL Forex traders MUST learn. When you trade you need to focus and if for any reason you cannot then just do not trade that day. So in one way you have learned your own lesson by cancelling your Forex Trades. Now take a deep breath , focus and start over tomorrow.

Benjaminis

Another factor that we need to take notice of is what is happening to the British Pound or Sterling.

5 Minute Chart from Finviz

GBP/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=GBPUSD&tf=m5

HEADS UP !!!

This is why I STRONGLY SUGGEST that you go to the Finviz site and review the news posted there by the minute. Here is what I just discovered. All that you need to do is click on the link. It is part of your training.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
The collapse in the Turkish Lira, which has been relentless since last summer's failed coup, has only accelerated in 2017, and especially this morning, when the Turkish currency tumbled more than 2% against the dollar - its single worst day since the July 19 military coup attempt - sliding as low as 3.73, down over 5% so far in 2017, and over 23% in the past 12 months.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...y%20lira_0.jpg


While the broader catalyst are familiar, namely a slowing economy, seemignly daily terrorist attacks, a furious crackdown by Erdogan on government dissent and potential rating downgrades, this morning there have been two additional catalysts that have accelerated the selloff.


First Moody's, which has the country on junk rating as of last September, issued a warning on the country's banking system saying heightened security risks would weigh down on the economy and heap further pressure on domestic banks. The rating agency warned that Turkish banks’ bad loan ratio was set to rise to 4% this year from 3.24% “driven by the combination of high inflation, lira depreciation and the general worsening of the investment climate because of security issues and geopolitical tensions”. The caution comes as Turkey faces another downgrade to junk from Fitch later in January, which would see its last investment grade rating stripped away, promptly raising its costs of borrowing even more.


Only making matters worse, were comments from Turkey's deputy PM, Nurettin Canikli, who indicated that Turkey's head remains stuck deeply in the sand, when he blamed the plunge in the Lira on an unacceptable "campaign" to force interest rates higher. He also told AHaber TV in an interview that institutions will take whatever measures are needed for economy, that Citizens have no demand for foreign currency (not quite if judging by the plunge in the lira), that the Turkish economy will continue to “resist” such moves as dollarization level very low compared to past, and ultimately blamed the U.S. for its support to Syrian Kurdish PYD/YPG calling it “unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, the market is already pricing in further downgrades, and as of this morning, Turkey's benchmark 10Y yields jumped another 15 bps near the highest over the past year.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20yield_0.jpg

So what is Turkey to do? One suggestion came from ING's chief EMEA FX and rates strategist Petr Krpata who writes that a "large one-off rate hike could unleash a 10% rally in the lira" adding that “in the absence of capital controls, a large emergency rate hike seems to be the only remedy. If the root cause is domestic, the solution must be domestic too.”

However, he admits that the bar for a large hike is high - especially with Erdogan having made it quite clear such a move is unacceptable - and expects the central bank to continue with its “piecemeal approach and only hike interest rates gradually.”

He concludes that such an approach is unlikely to halt the lira’s slide and suggests further downside; sees 3.90/USD being tested before the case for a large interest increase grows stronger.

At the current rate of collapse, the lira may be there by the end of the week.

HEADS UP !!! Once we see something happen then WE need to find out why ? I just went to Finviz and found this BBC article.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38555673

Snippet:
The value of the pound has fallen to a two-month low against major currencies after Prime Minister Theresa May signalled the UK would pursue a so-called "hard Brexit" from the EU.

Sterling fell about 1% across the board. The only currency that it gained ground against was the Turkish lira.

The Prime Minister told Sky News on Sunday that she wanted the best possible deal for leaving the EU.

However, she dismissed the idea that the UK could "keep bits of membership".

She added: "We're leaving. We're coming out. We're not going to be a member of the EU any longer."

Commentators interpreted this as meaning that Mrs May would not seek to keep the UK in the EU's single market, with radical consequences for the country's economy.

'Populist politics'
By late morning, the pound was down 1.06% against the dollar at $1.2155, while against the euro, it was 0.89% lower at €1.1561.

"Sterling is on the back foot on Monday after Theresa May's comments were taken as a sign the UK government would prioritise immigration controls over single market access," said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital.

"Domestic populist politics trumps the trade card for now, it seems, and that is weighing on the pound."

Mr Wilson predicted "more volatility" in the sterling exchange rate, adding that it could easily "bounce back" as the tone of political discourse shifted.
Paresh Davdra, chief executive of RationalFX, said: "The looming fears that the UK might exit the single market continue to weigh down on the pound, and we expect the volatility to continue until further and actual on-ground clarity emerge.

However, he added: "All is not lost for the UK, as the fall in the pound's value has attracted international market activity and simultaneously boosted the country's export figures."

The pound fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the UK's June 2016 vote to leave the EU.

The weaker pound makes UK goods cheaper for buyers overseas, but increases the cost of imported goods.
Analysts expect UK inflation to pick-up this year as the impact of higher import costs feeds through to the economy. Last week, a string of economic surveys indicated that companies were facing rising price pressures as import costs increased.

November's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate was 1.2%, up from 0.9% in October and the highest since October 2014, when it stood at 1.3%.

HEADS UP for KeepCalmfk

I know you read all that I post however I usually add to the post and so in case you have not seen the entire post I post it here again and of course EVERYONE should read and understand what it says and you should start to do this yourself. I want to teach you how to fish so that you do not need me to FISH for you.

I want my group to start to do this yourself and all that you need to do is to click on this link and you can find the same things that I do. If you want to link an article that is fine. I can look at it and give my commentary so you get to think as I do since you are now aware of what is SPIN (PERCEPTION and REALITY)

http://finviz.com/news.ashx

Always give me feedback so we have an ongoing discussion. We have mild Risk Off now and there is no major news releases today.

You can also look at Gold and US Dollar Index and the US 10 Year Bonds.

Use the 5 Minute Charts for the Immediate View.

5 Minute Chart of US 30 from Finviz.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5


You also need to Monitor EUR/USD even if we are not trading it at the moment in our Four Trade Plans since it makes Up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

You can now see that the US Dollar Index is getting STRONGER SHORT TERM yet now we see part of the reason as it relates to EUR/USD.

5 Minute Chart US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Now we look at the US 10 Year Bonds to see if the US Bonds are selling off or being purchased to park money in the Billions and Trillions of Dollars as we either have Risk On or Risk Off and the 5 Minute Charts from Finviz lets you see that.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5




Benjaminis

I just went to Finviz as I have instructed you to do on your own since you are not trading second to second and this article from Zerohedge just came out at 6:44 AM this morning and it tells us what is going on and there is no cost for the information except for your time. PLEASE READ IT ALL !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards. Oil dropped below $54 a barrel on Iran supply concerns, while gold rose 0.6% to $1,180.


Top stories include potential candidates to head the Federal Reserve in 2018 suggest they would pursue tighter policy; McDonald’s selling control of China business to Citic, Carlyle; Air Products looking to buy China’s top industrial gas maker.

A key focus for the week will be a news conference on Wednesday at which Donald Trump may give more details of his policies before his Jan. 20 inauguration.

Expectations of more economic stimulus from a Trump administration have helped push U.S, stocks and bond yields higher since his victory in the Nov. 8 election.

Political risks have emerged as the week begins, rippling across FX markets with the pound, Turkish lira and South Korean won leading declines, while gold rose on haven demand and Chinese buying.

The dollar edged higher on Monday, boosted by robust U.S. wage growth data strengthening the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate increases, while Britain's pound fell on Prime Minister Theresa May's hint at no membership of the EU's single market. Still, Britain's blue-chip FTSE 100 index nonetheless hit a record high, continuing its streak of all time highs, as the first full trading week of 2017 on London markets began. The pan-European STOXX 600 index dropped 0.4% in early deals.

Sterling dropped to a 10-week low after the Prime Minister Theresa May indicated she prioritized regaining control of immigration during Brexit negotiations, while tensions between North and South Korea and debates on constitutional changes in Turkey put an index of developing currencies on track for the steepest drop in three weeks. Telecoms and real estate were among the biggest losers in European shares, while oil dropped for the first time in four days. Gold rose as investor holdings posted the first back-to-back increase since the U.S. election.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...n%202017_0.png


"The rise in the FTSE is really down to the weakness in sterling, but the Brexit news is not great so I don't see the FTSE gaining too much," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, market strategist at London Capital Group.

The Turkish lira dropped to new record lows after a warning from Moody's about the country's bad loan situation, while deputy PM Canikli blamed an "unacceptable campaign" to move interest rates higher.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...y%20lira_0.jpg

As Bloomberg notes, currencies, not bonds, have emerged as the preferred way for investors to express displeasure with political developments, because "they are seen as less vulnerable to intervention", which may be true in most places except China where after this weekend's report that Chinese reserves dropped by another $41 billion, all eyes are on how Beijing responds to the relentless capital flight. The offshore yuan was down 0.4 percent following Friday’s 0.9 percent retreat. The central bank set the onshore yuan reference rate 0.9 percent weaker against the dollar, though still stronger than some bank models predicted.


Meanwhile, British PM May said Sunday that negotiations on Brexit will be about “getting the right relationship, not about keeping bits of membership.” A so-called hard Brexit may push the Bank of England to keep rates lower for longer, while weakening the pound and supporting foreign-focused companies in the main stock index, Bloomberg added. As a result, the pound fell to $1.2159, the lowest since Oct. 31, at 11:04 a.m. in London.

"Since October it's become clear that sterling has a very binary relationship with political news, and anything which suggests a 'hard Brexit' sends sterling down, and anything that suggests a 'soft Brexit' sends sterling up. That’s been the case since the party conference in October," said Rabobank currency strategist Jane Foley.

“Politics is a much more important factor these days for currency markets than it used to be,” said Adam Cole, head of global foreign-exchange strategy in London at Royal Bank of Canada. “There is a lot more political uncertainty now.”

In light of the geopolitical uncertainty, after dipping in initial trade, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded from an earlier loss and was up 0.2%.
In Asia, MSCI's ex-Japan Asia-Pacific shares index was flat on the day, having risen as much as 0.5 percent after posting a rare loss in the previous session.

Australia's S&P/ASX200 rose 0.9 percent while Hong Kong shares rose 0.2%. Trading was light because Japan is shut for a holiday.


In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5%, on course for its biggest decline in almost four weeks. The main outperformer was the U.K. market, with the FTSE 100 Index heading for a 10th consecutive daily increase, as stronger economic data combined with a declining pound spurred buying.

1. Deutsche Lufthansa AG tumbled as much as 5.6 percent after analysts were underwhelmed by the airline’s guidance update.
2. Swedish bank Svenska Handelsbanken AB dropped after a downgrade at Credit Suisse Group AG.

The S&P 500 futures were little changed. The underlying gauge rose 0.4 percent to a record close of 2,276.98 on Friday in New York.

In rates, German 10-year government bond yields last traded at 0.29%, down 0.5 basis points on the day. It earlier rose close to 0.33 percent, its highest since Dec. 19, after data showed German exports rose 3.9 percent in November, their strongest monthly gain since May 2012 and far ahead of forecast.
* * *
Market Snapshot

1. S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2271
2. Stoxx 600 down 0.4% to 364
3. FTSE 100 up 0.2% to 7228
4. DAX down 0.4% to 11555
5. German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.29%
6. Italian 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.9%
7. Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.48%
8. S&P GSCI Index down 0.8% to 395.1
9. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 138
10. Hang Seng up 0.2% to 22559
11. Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3171
12. S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 5807
13. US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 2.4%
14. Dollar Index up 0.23% to 102.45
15. WTI Crude futures down 1.7% to $53.06
16. Brent Futures down 1.7% to $56.11
17. Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,176
18. Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $16.49

Top Headline News

1. Potential Fed Chairs Suggest They Would Pursue Tighter Policy: potential candidates to head the Fed in 2018 suggested that monetary policy would be tighter if they were in charge
2. McDonald’s Sells Control of China Business to Citic, Carlyle: McDonald’s in agreement to sell 80% of its operations in China and Hong Kong to a consortium including Citic and Carlyle Group
3. Air Products Looks to Buy China’s Top Industrial Gas Maker: target shares jump in Hong Kong trading after intent letter
4. Morgan Stanley, UBS Said to Plan Boosting China JV Stakes: banks plan to boost holdings to regulatory threshold of 49%
5. Frozen in Detroit: Trump Stumps Builders of Cars in Age of SUVs
6. Fiat Chrysler Spends $1 Billion on U.S. Amid Trump Squeeze
7. VW Taps Hippie Heritage With Electric Microbus Amid Revamp
8. Volvo Cars Plans to Export Half of South Carolina Plant’s Output
9. FBI Said to Have Arrested Ex-VW Exec on Conspiracy Charges: NYT
10. ‘Rogue One’ Cruises to Fourth Weekend Atop Box Office

Asian equity markets traded higher after a strong close in the US on Friday, where all 3 major US equities posted gains and DJIA came within 0.37 points of the 20,000 level. ASX 200 (+0.9%) outperformed to trade in the green for the fifth consecutive day, with the IT sector taking the impetus from its US counterparts to lift the index higher after a flat open. However, gains were capped as a slightly stronger AUD, and lower government iron ore demand predictions weighed on mining names. KOSPI (flat) lagged amid uncertainty in the country as the parliamentary committee held its last hearing for the case surrounding impeached President Park, with South Korean heavyweight SK Hynix shares trading higher by over 3% to help keep the index afloat. In China, markets were mixed with Shanghai Comp (+0.5%) boosted by a relatively firmer liquidity operation by the PBoC and Hang Seng (+0.3%) choppy initially as China's CSRC stated it will increase the importance of risk prevention in the stock market this year, however rallied as the session progressed to conform to the upbeat tone. Nikkei 225 was closed due to the Coming of Age Holiday.
Top Asian News

1. North Korean Nukes Seen Hurting Trump Re-Election Prospects: nation will probably claim with credibility within four years that it can hit U.S. with a nuclear weapon
2. Singapore Demands Hong Kong Return Seized Military Vehicles: City-state yet to open direct dialog with China on carriers
3. Rubber Prices Climb as Deadly Floods Damage Thai Plantations: Inundation set to affect rubber supplies in weeks ahead

European equities (-0.4%) trade broadly lower this morning, with the energy sector the most notable laggard. In terms of a stock specific basis, Volkswagen (+4%) are the best performer in the DAX after reporting FY 2016 brand sales +2.8%. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 bucks the trend to trade in positive territory (+0.1%), with exporters benefitting from the softness in GBP, with some also talking about whether more monetary easing may be necessary after Theresa May indicated over the weekend that single market membership may not be achievable in Brexit talks.
European Econ data

1. German Nov. Ind. Production Rises 0.4% M/m; Est. +0.6% M/m
2. German November Exports +3.9% M/m; Est. +0.5% M/m
3. Bank of France December Business Sentiment Rises to 102 vs 101
4. Italy Unemployment Rate Rose to 11.9% in November; Est. 11.6%
5. Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence 18.2 vs Est. 12.8
6. Eurozone Nov. Unemployment Rate 9.8%; Est. 9.8%

Top European News

1. German Industrial Output Climbs in Sign of Economic Strength: output gained 0.4% in November vs estimated 0.6% increase; Economy Ministry sees solid output growth in winter half
2. May Signals U.K. to Quit Single Market to Curb Immigration: May denies “muddled” thinking, pledges Brexit details in weeks; Pound weakens as May’s comments indicate hard Brexit
3. Christmas Sports Bets Bring Tough End to Year for William Hill: profit will be about 20 million pounds less then expected
4. Euro-Area Unemployment Holds at 7-Year Low as Growth Strengthens: joblessness remains at 9.8%, in line with estimate; unemployment lowest in Germany, highest in Greece and Spain
5. Italian Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest Since June 2015
6. Lufthansa Forecasts ‘Clearly Negative’ Trend in Yields for 2017: shares decline; outlook underwhelming, analysts say
7. Fresenius Medical Care Shares Slump After Patient-Aid Subpoena: shares down the most in almost 2 months
8. Italy Clears Hurdle in Monte Paschi Rescue Without Even Trying: European Commission has to approve application for state aid

In currencies, the pound fell to a 10-week low, or $1.2159, the lowest since Oct. 31, at 11:04 a.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded from an earlier loss and was up 0.2 percent. The offshore yuan was down 0.4 percent following Friday’s 0.9 percent retreat. The central bank set the onshore yuan reference rate 0.9 percent weaker against the dollar, though still stronger than some bank models predicted. The won fell 1.3 percent and the lira 2.2 percent, dragging the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 0.4 percent lower for the biggest drop since Dec. 15. The yen fell 0.2 percent to 117.28 per dollar and the won slid 1.3 percent, the most in two months.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped 1.5 percent to $53.16, halting its advance below $54 a barrel as an increase in U.S. drilling offset signs OPEC members are sticking to planned output cuts. Adding to the pressure was the Friday report of a surge in Iranian exports and selling from its offshore inventory, as well as the addition of more rige by US producers. Gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,176.7 an ounce.

US Government:

1. Senate in session, plans consideration of budget resolution; House in session and could consider bills related to regulations and investing in startups
2. 10am: Supreme Court hears oral arguments
3. 11:30am: HUD Sec. Julian Castro delivers remarks on housing market and protections for HUD-assisted residents

US Event Calendar

1. 9am: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks in Hartford, Connecticut
2. 2pm: Fed’s Lockhart Speaks to the Rotary Club of Atlanta
3. 3pm: Consumer Credit, Nov., est. $18.400b (prior $16.018b)

* * *
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As my year starts I wanted to recap for my own benefit the key early moves seen so far in 2017. The most significant have probably been those in rates and FX. 10y Treasury yields are 2.5bps lower compared to where we finished 2016 at 2.420% although that masks what has been an 18.4bps intraday high-to-low range over the week. At 0.294%, 10y Bund yields on the other hand are 9.3bps higher while in the periphery 10y yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal are 14.8bps, 15.7bps and 28.5bps higher respectively. In fact the latter crept over 4% for the first time since last February after the latest ECB PSPP holdings data revealed a much slower than expected rate of purchases in Portugal last month relative to its implied capital key. With the ECB tapering discussion clearly still topical last week’s European data and in particular the inflation numbers were all fairly supportive too. In fact our European economists noted that their SIREN-Momentum and SIREN-Surprise indicators are currently above 85% and 90% of their respective readings over the past decade. Their combined reading stands close to the top two percent of historical observations.


Meanwhile in FX the USD index ended the week pretty much unchanged but again with a notable 2.43% range. Indeed there were fairly sizeable daily moves as investors balanced the FOMC minutes with Trump’s appointments and tweets and also the big move for the Chinese Renminbi which saw the offshore currency rally +1.81% last week. More on that shortly. EM currencies on the whole had a fairly decent week (Russian Ruble and Colombia Peso stand out after rallying nearly 3% each) while the MSCI EM equity index returned +2.18% as commodities – and in particular metals – started the year by building on recent highs. Elsewhere credit markets have started positively. In the US CDX IG is 3bps tighter at 64.7bps and close to the recent tights while in Europe the iTraxx Main is 4bps tighter at 69bps with that index also creeping in on last year’s tights.


Financials have also gotten off to a decent start with the iTraxx senior and sub fins indices 7bps and 23bps tighter respectively. The big news in credit though has been the incredible start for primary markets. Indeed the US IG market stands out in particular with total issuance of over $60bn last week, making it one of the biggest weeks on record. Even more impressive is the fact that there was no one or two bumper offerings, unlike other record weeks. Finally, where it’s been a bit quieter is equity markets. That said it’s still been a decent start with the S&P 500 (+1.70%) and Dow (+1.02%) both up (the latter within a whisker of the 20,000 level) following further gains on Friday while the Stoxx 600 turned in a +1.12% return last week. European Banks also rallied to the tune of +3.79%.

The highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win. His tweets continue to be market moving events for the stocks and sectors it influences and very soon there will be more and more macro consequences of his musings and actual policy decisions. So watch out for things to hot up after Wednesday. Remember also that the inauguration is a week on Friday and we'll soon be into the well watched first 100 days.


China won't be far from Mr Trump's crosshairs in 2017 and as mentioned earlier the big story here so far this year has been the +1.81% strengthening of the offshore RMB last week. At one stage on Friday the currency was as much as +2.78% stronger in 2017 before it gave back some of those gains on Friday. It’s given back another -0.48% this morning too with offshore lending rates also notably lower (CNH Hibor down to a still elevated 14% from 69% on Friday) and in fact it’s now on course for the biggest two-slide since June last year. So China is ruffling a few feathers again at the start of a New Year. It’s worth also noting that the weekend data showed that China’s foreign reserves fell for a six month in a row in December and to a five-year low of $3.01tn, albeit pretty much bang on consensus.

On a related topic, over the weekend our China economists published a report discussing their view of the Dec-31 Decree issued by the PBoC stipulating new reporting regulations regarding large/suspicious financial transactions. They highlight that the Decree could potentially pose a severe hit to “capital flight without cross-border fund flows”. They also note that the Decree is an “infrastructure building” effort with regulatory implications far beyond capital control. Better tracing of large/suspicious financial transactions will not only serve for anti money laundry, but also help with, for instance, regulation of shadow banking activities.

Elsewhere this morning equity markets in Asia are generally off to a decent start to the week. The Shanghai Comp (+0.56%), ASX (+0.93%), Hang Seng (+0.04%) and Kospi (+0.12%) have all edged higher while markets in Japan are closed for a public holiday. There’s been some interesting corporate news too with the announcement that McDonald’s is to sell 80% of its China franchise for about $2bn with Chinese state-backed conglomerate Citic Group to take a 52% stake. Meanwhile Sterling (-0.38%) has weakened following a Sky News interview yesterday with UK PM Theresa May in which she said the eventual exit of the UK from the EU will be about “getting the right relationship” and “not about keeping bits of membership”. May also played down Ivan Rogers’ comments last week when he criticised the government’s “muddled thinking”, while May added that the government “will be setting out some more details in coming weeks as we look ahead to triggering Article 50”.

Moving on. For those that missed it, Friday was all about the final US employment report of 2016. While headline nonfarm payrolls may have appeared a touch disappointing at first glance having come in slightly below consensus (156k vs. 175k expected), there was also a cumulative 19k of net positive revisions to the prior two months. That was a similar story for private payrolls (144k vs. 170k expected) where the November reading in particular was revised up to 198k from 156k at the first reading. Meanwhile the rest of the report was generally supportive. The U-3 unemployment rate ticked up as expected to 4.7% although the broader U-6 rate dropped one-tenth to 9.2% and in doing so hit a new postfinancial crisis low. The labor force participation rate nudged up one-tenth to 62.7% while average weekly hours held steady at 34.3hrs. The report might however be best remembered for the +0.4% mom gain in average hourly earnings (vs. +0.3% expected) which has helped the YoY rate to accelerate to +2.9% from +2.5% - the highest since June 2009.


As noted earlier US equities took heart from the report, helping the S&P 500 to rise +0.35% while 10y Treasury yields reversed a decent part of the moves in the previous two days to close 7.5bps higher. The USD index (+0.69%) also rallied back while Gold (-0.63%) nudged lower. The other data in the US on Friday didn’t offer too much to the debate. The November trade balance revealed a further widening in the deficit to $45.2bn from $42.4bn. Finally factory orders weakened a little bit more than expected in November (-2.4% mom vs. -2.3% expected). Following all that the Atlanta Fed left their Q4 GDP forecast unchanged at 2.9% while the NY Fed raised their growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%.


There was also some Fedspeak to take stock of on Friday. The Philadelphia Fed’s Harker said that “I’m pencilled in for 3 rate increases” this year. The Dallas Fed’s Kaplan confirmed that the December SEP, which had a median projection of 3 rate hikes this year “gives you a sense of my views” but that the Fed needs to be nimble to revise forecasts as events unfold. Finally the usually dovish Chicago Fed’s Evans confirmed that 2 hikes this year is “not an unreasonable expectation” and that 3 hikes is “not implausible”.

Before we look at the week ahead, for completeness in Germany on Friday the hard data was a little bit disappointing with both November factory orders (-2.5% mom vs. -2.4% expected) and retail sales (-1.8% mom vs. -0.9% expected) declining more than expected. The European Commission’s index of economic sentiment was however reported as rising 1.2pts in December to 107.8 and more than expected.

Moving now to this week’s calendar. We’re kicking off the week in Europe this morning with Germany where the latest industrial production and trade data is due. Business sentiment data in France follows along with the latest house price data in the UK, before we get then get the Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area and also the November unemployment rate reading. Over in the US we’ve got the usual post-payrolls lull but the November consumer credit reading will be out this evening. We’re kicking off Tuesday in China where the December CPI and PPI prints will be due. In Europe the only data due out is the latest industrial production numbers in France while in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading is due for last month, along with the November wholesale inventories and trade sales report and also the November JOLTS job openings report. Wednesday kicks off in the UK with the November trade data and also industrial and manufacturing production prints. There’s no data of note in the US on Wednesday. Japan gets things going on Thursday with November trade data. During the European session we’ve got inflation data in France, GDP in Germany and industrial production data for the Euro area all due.

Over in the US the data includes initial jobless claims, import price index and the December monthly budget statement. During the Asia session on Friday the highlight is likely the December trade report in China. It’s a quiet end to the week in Europe with no notable releases due. In the US we finish the week with the December PPI report and retail sales, November business inventories and finally a first look at the January University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.


Away from the data the Fedspeak this week consists of Rosengren and Lockhart today, Harker, Evans, Bullard and Kaplan on Thursday and Fed Chair Yellen early on Friday morning when she is due to host a town hall meeting with educators from across the country. Q&A is however expected. The ECB will also release the minutes from the December policy meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, this week earnings season will start to kick into gear with JP Morgan, BofA and Wells Fargo all reporting on Friday. Perhaps the most hotly anticipated event this week however will be President-elect Trump’s aforementioned general news conference on Wednesday, the first since his election victory. That will also come one day after President Obama’s televised farewell speech from Chicago.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: See Ladies and Gentleman , now that you know how I get all the news and expert commentary you can do it now by yourself. My main point is that it is not that hard to learn and improve your Forex trading. We already see the great results from our Forex Traders themselves.

Benjaminis

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

Hi Benjamin

Thank you for all of the links and heads up's so far, I keep this thread on my computer open in the background throughout the day and as I have a chance between work and lunch I read through the posts. But today being my first day back in office is a bit hectic, so will catch up tonight after work or when I have time in between.

I must still find a balance/routine between work and trading, as trading is want I want to do fulltime, but my job/work is what I must do. lol.
Ps. I have registered for the free trail on ransquawk.com, someone phoned me to active my login details for the free trail.

I will tell you that you have the skills to become a full time Forex trader. For the moment keep your day job and hopefully soon we will find the way for you to have the job that you have the desire and interest in. It is a great pleasure to work with you and look forward to the future.


Benjaminis

Hello goodness

I got your private message and you are very welcome to learn here on our thread. You could subscribe if you like and post any of your questions on our thread.

We have 12 Forex traders that have opened a FXCM UK Demo Trading Account of $50,000 US Funds. I will see in the next couple of days who is active since I have asked everyone of them to post here at least once a day.

We will see and then I could always ask you to open the FXCM UK account so you can learn how to be a successful Forex Trader without having any fear of loss while you learn. Nice to see you here.


Benjaminis

Here is the advice from a true professional Forex trader. I share it here from my post just now. TooSlow is the Professional that I am referring to.

Quoting Shabs19
In a nutshell: 1. Find an edge. 2. Trade the edge. 3. Repeat. It takes a lot of work & dedication to find an edge, most never find one or cannot trade one. Those that do will succeed. Knowledge has to be earnt, both in time & money. Most people are not prepared to put in the work that is required. You only fail when you give up.

Thank you. I could not have said it better. Go fortune in everything that you do.


Benjaminis

RISK OFF means easy money!

Unfortunately my USD/JPY hit STOP on Break Even while I was at the GYM, and then went straight down, I regret moving stop to breakeven so fast. I missed about 600 dollars on that short now.


In about 1 hour I'll free myself of everything and start reading in-depth each post Benjamin. I've checked out the radio website and it looks like a good source to keep on background while trading.

Regards
Emilian

Any criticism and comments from BenjaminIs team welcome!

HEADS UP !!! I am going to a meeting now and will not be back before Europe closes at 11:30 AM to NOON EST, so please post any observations or comments or questions here and when I will return then I will reply to them.

I have a nice profit now in my last USD/JPY position and the North American markets have not opened as yet to start the NEW Money Flow so I just closed the SHORT USD/JPY position with a profit of over $500 US not far away from my Limit Out, however the decision that I just made was correct since as I have said before.

"You can never lose money taking a good profit. Anything over $500 US ($542.46 US Dollars) is a good profit."

On my last open position of 100 units of US 30 now I have a unrealized profit of $770.00 US Dollars and my Limit Out is set at $1500 US Dollars of Profit so that position I will leave on lowering my STOP LOSS to lock in a profit of $500 US Dollars. We are all starting to learn how to use the Money Flow Method and Risk Management.


Benjaminis

Update on my trades so far for the day.

I have a total of 6 positions on my MT4 Demo FXCM account. All 6 positions has positive Stop losses, so currently no risk.

I had 4 positions opened on my Demo Trading station FXCM account. I closed on JPY with a profit of $414.
I have 3 positions left, I have moved 2 of the 3 positions to break even. Total of 2% risk.

Excellent Forex Trading - Keep it up and Stay Calm , my friend.


Benjaminis

Thank you Benjamin, this post means so much to me! It is amazing what can happen if only 1 person beliefs in you, even if you don't believe in yourself sometimes.
Because of your motivation the past 2 weeks I have been pushing myself and I believe I will become a consistent profitable trader on day, by putting in all the efforts and doing my best each day!

No criticism wayfarer and you are part of the team and I am happy that you are. You are doing very well. Congratulations. We are learning together and the results show the truth of that.


Nomi Prins: This is an Ongoing Financial Crisis


Nomi Prins while in Berlin, Germany in December 2016 joined investigative journalist Lars Schall to discuss what she has identified as an ongoing financial crisis. During the in depth conversation they highlight the indicators that signal we are in an ongoing financial crisis, how involved the big banks are in the existing monetary system and exactly why the next global financial crash will be the worst experienced yet.


Nomi Prins is the best selling author of All the Presidents’ Bankers and is currently working on her latest book, Artisans of Money. Prins’ is a former Wall Street insider who has worked previously at some of the largest banks in the world including Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Chase Manhattan Bank. She continues to be a strong advocate for Glass-Steagall Act legislation and financial reforms of Wall Street.


When posed with the question regarding the financial crisis that began in 2008, and what may be in store for the ongoing crisis she remarked, “If we look at why the problems of 2008 happened, it was because issues in the United States financial structure at the beginning of the 2000’s had not been solved. We had deregulation of the financial industry in 1999, which allowed banks to consolidate deposits and loans. It allowed them to participate in more speculative betting activities. After that, two years later, we had a minor recession where scandals filled in our energy, telecoms and banking sectors. We then had substantially lower rates stemming in 2002 and 2003 that made banks turn to find something else they could make a lot of money. That something else was subprime mortgages that had been repackaged and sold multiple times over. When we get to 2007 and 2008, all of that fell apart.”

“What is different now, and why it is worse, and why we are only in the first phase of a much bigger financial crisis is because we have had eight years of buildup. From the central bank’s perspective, they are coming in and subsidizing the system – what I call artisanal money – where you manufacture money, print it and do not separate banks, regulate them or reduce any real risks they impose on the economy. Now, we are falling from a height where even greater debt, capital and cheap money has all been pushed into the financial system. When we fall is in question, but that we will fall is definite.”


“In the wake of the crisis the Federal Reserve had a different role. That was to organize and coordinate its own monetary policy throughout the world. This began in the wake of the financial crisis in the United States, which was to reduce rates to zero and to adopt a massive quantitative easing (buying additional debt securities into the books of the Fed). It was not simply lending at zero, it was making money available in various ways to the big banks. It was also buying debt securities, effectively making money available to the government, all through the Fed in order to preserve the financial system and give the big banks liquidity needed to continue to be big. The Fed then exported this policy throughout the world. It became something that was coordinated with the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and others. This is what we are living through today.”


When asked about the big banks and their involvement in the crisis she responded, “They were the same big banks that pushed the deregulation in 1999. They pushed deregulation of Glass-Steagall Act from 1933, which separated their functions, and was eventually repealed. It allowed them to consolidate their size, risk and complexity into one “house.” These are the same banks at the core of the financial crisis. They were the big six banks in the United States that include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. They are still the banks that, since the crisis, have become about 43% bigger in the total amount of deposits they hold. They’ve almost doubled in terms of the amounts of assets that they hold – relative to the amount prior to the crisis – and still maintain 95-97% hold on all of the trading assets that exist in the U.S banking sector. The bigger banks have become bigger since the crisis.”
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She then remarked on the problematic standings of the U.S central bank, “The idea that the Federal Reserve is that it is technically not a government entity but it is not a private institution. It is somewhere in the middle. The reality is that it is constructed with shares and proportionally allocated by the banks that ultimately get help from the Federal Reserve. For example, the biggest banks have a higher percentage share of membership in the Federal Reserve than the smaller banks. When there is a problem they have a bigger call on that. Either the banks are very greedy, or they continue to require money that has no cost because they do not have the ability to function as financial institutions without that external help. Or both.”
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The interviewer then asked about the influence of China’s alternative approach to the West and the increasing Eastern shift following the 2008 financial crisis. Lars Schall noted an IMF report as saying, “The gold bullion component of monetary gold is the only case of a financial asset with no counterpart liability.”


To that, alternative currency discussion and the ongoing financial crisis Prins’ highlights, “One of the things that China has done is seek to establish itself as more of a dominant reserve currency. Up until October of last year China was not in the special drawing rights basket of the IMF. A standing in which the U.S dollar is still the supreme currency because it is the currency of choice. This means that most central banks have it in their reserve. To that extent the Federal Reserve, as a dominant central bank, has more control over global policy. It exerted that power in the wake of the financial crisis. China was not able to exert any of that. So what they did was find a new way to get into the SDR and have their currency adopted into more of a global reserve basis and come in at the middle reserve in the basket of currency players.”


“Gold is the other side of that. It would allow China to be able to maintain greater stability. Having gold is a way to get back to a more independent equilibrium. One element is central banks and currency… the other is to have something else to be used in the event of a crisis. It offers an element to create stability. In terms of buying gold, it is a way to move away from the dependency of the dollar.”


Speaking to the same perceived Chinese concern out of the West, when asked about accusations over concern over currency manipulation she noted, “It has been policy of individuals from both party lines to bash China as a currency manipulator. President Obama’s first Treasury Secretary and head of the Federal Reserve all had labeled China as a currency manipulator. Donald Trump has simply maintained this idea of blaming China for trade and deficit issues that the United States has experienced. Trade is the bigger issue. I see Trump continuing to go about potential bilateral and individual trade agreements. China will also continue to seek alternative trade options to the West.”


To see the full interview with Nomi Prins and Lars Schall click here.
Regards,


Benjaminis