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Don't do what Donny Don't does

  • #21
  • Jan 3, 2017 7:32am Jan 3, 2017 7:32am
Quoting stoiter
Ill be watching this EURUSD to see if the weekend gap closes. I have a theory that the gap creates a vacuum with no orders and price loves to move through a vacuum. {image} {image}
Stoiter if you like to see vacuum or dead space areas have you not tried market profile? it will show you where price/volume dead areas are, many believe the price is drawn to those areas
  • #22
  • Jan 4, 2017 7:34am Jan 4, 2017 7:34am
Quoting kraven
{quote} Exactly. thats why stoiter is betting against them. e.g. looking at the AU chart trend is down....looking at oanda's client positions they are long....basically bet against oanda's client positions. the truth is i've seen this style of trading before. you might as well forget about client position and just look at the charts and follow the trends as the clients are always against it.
i understand the premise, sadly it a bit wrong.
you're assuming that most retail positions are on the wrong side, this is inaccurate.
most retail trader lose money, this doesn't mean that they lose all their trades nor does it mean that they trade in the wrong direction in the wrong time, its also poor risk management.
retail lose money in the long run, doesn't mean they lose every trade.

their trades are the equivalent of a coin toss.
i lose money for a living
  • #23
  • Jan 4, 2017 7:36am Jan 4, 2017 7:36am
Quoting stoiter
{quote} Thanks for stopping by Tylerbose! Im not implying that retail orders affect the market. Its more that It gives an idea of the sentiment of the losing traders. As mainly a breakout trader I use this information to gauge where clusters of orders are likely to be. This small view into the retail traders mindset somehow does relate to the broader market as i see these levels get run through time and time again. Sure there are false breakouts but that is part of the game. I suspect even at the big end of town there are losing discretionary traders...
good luck, mate.
i lose money for a living
  • #24
  • Jan 8, 2017 5:45pm Jan 8, 2017 5:45pm
Im back to trading after some friends stayed at our place for a few days. pretty quiet monday morning here in australia
  • #25
  • Jan 8, 2017 5:53pm Jan 8, 2017 5:53pm
Still watching GPB USD for a break below 1.22. retail is %66 long.
AUD JPY is %60 long but but cant see any nice areas on the 4H chart to short. maybe 86.00
  • #26
  • Jan 8, 2017 9:41pm Jan 8, 2017 9:41pm
A lot of stoplosses below 1.22, watch it POP!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27
  • Jan 8, 2017 10:02pm Jan 8, 2017 10:02pm
3 tick chart. quite the pop. although a sell stop entry couldve had 10 pip slippage on my broker as there were no buyers.
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  • #28
  • Jan 9, 2017 2:18am Jan 9, 2017 2:18am
GBPUSD stop moved to BE. moving down nicely. initial SL was 50ish pips so up currently up 1%

EUR JPY is %63 short so im looking for a break long of 124
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  • #29
  • Jan 10, 2017 12:27am Jan 10, 2017 12:27am
Moved stop, 1.21 could prove to be tough to get through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30
  • Jan 10, 2017 2:55pm Jan 10, 2017 2:55pm
trade closed for +0.4 %

I might look for another break of 1.21
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  • #31
  • Jan 12, 2017 1:48am Jan 12, 2017 1:48am
moved stop to a little past breakeven during the first move down which then bounced straight back and took me out . sure took off afterwards

trade closed +0.12%
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  • #32
  • Jan 12, 2017 2:00am Jan 12, 2017 2:00am
This one was up almost 2x risk before turning around and stopping me out. Unfortunately windows decided to update and shut off my alerts and BE EA so I missed it and couldnt get stop to BE.


trade closed for - 0.5% (I normally risk 0.5- 1% per trade depending on the setup)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33
  • Jan 12, 2017 2:16am Jan 12, 2017 2:16am
GBP JPY is 62% short on the open position ratio. I like the look of a breakout of 141.50 which has tons of stoplosses above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34
  • Jan 12, 2017 2:30am Jan 12, 2017 2:30am
EURGBP Retail position ratio is 60% short so ive got a buy stop long. Tons of stops above 0.8700 could see this one pop quite nicely
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #35
  • Jan 12, 2017 3:53pm Jan 12, 2017 3:53pm
EURGBP did indeed pop nicely as the stops were hit. Moved SL up. This could easily come back and take me out but there are a TON more stops above 0.8750 with alot of upside room to move this one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Jan 12, 2017 7:39pm Jan 12, 2017 7:39pm
Quoting stoiter
EURGBP did indeed pop nicely as the stops were hit. Moved SL up. This could easily come back and take me out but there are a TON more stops above 0.8750 with alot of upside room to move this one. {image} {image}
Stoiter,

Many thanks for the effort you are taking to post the charts.

In the above chart, you say "No support can mean no resistance next time price moves through". My understanding is when the support failed to hold, it means there were no buy orders to boost the price up. So if the price comes back to the same level (changed now to a resistance), shouldn't it exhibit the same behavior i.e. lack of buy orders and even fall further instead of going up?

I am sure, I am missed the nuance of your logic. Kindly guide me in better understanding in what you are trying to say.

Thanks
  • #37
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:32pm Jan 12, 2017 8:32pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Stoiter, Many thanks for the effort you are taking to post the charts. In the above chart, you say "No support can mean no resistance next time price moves through". My understanding is when the support failed to hold, it means there were no buy orders to boost the price up. So if the price comes back to the same level (changed now to a resistance), shouldn't it exhibit the same behavior i.e. lack of buy orders and even fall further instead of going up? I am sure, I am missed the nuance of your logic. Kindly guide me in better understanding...

Hi Aaven,

I guess a picture shows a thousand words. Im not great at writing down my thoughts, which is another reason for me to continue this journal.

Anyway onto the chart. Whenever price moves sharply in one direction all the orders get triggered (both long and short). If price turns around lets say due to profit taking or new buyers or sellings coming in(or a million other reasons that cant be known), there is now a vacuum where there aren't many orders anymore. The term "path of least resistance " could be used. lack of orders means price will keep moving until it reaches the next zone of S+R


Look at your charts on any timeframe and you'll find these up/ down patterns
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38
  • Jan 12, 2017 8:39pm Jan 12, 2017 8:39pm
take this trade im in now, it could easily head back down as the path of least resistance is back to that orange zone that previously acted as support and resistance.
Attached Image
  • #39
  • Jan 15, 2017 6:37am Jan 15, 2017 6:37am
Quoting stoiter
{quote} Hi Aaven, I guess a picture shows a thousand words. Im not great at writing down my thoughts, which is another reason for me to continue this journal. Anyway onto the chart. Whenever price moves sharply in one direction all the orders get triggered (both long and short). If price turns around lets say due to profit taking or new buyers or sellings coming in(or a million other reasons that cant be known), there is now a vacuum where there aren't many orders anymore. The term "path of least resistance " could be used. lack of orders means...
Stoiter,

Ran through some charts. It's a revelation for me. I am beginning to understand. Thanks for a really wonderful input.

Have some doubts, but want to see if i can solve them by putting in some screen time...

Thanks a ton Stoiter...
  • #40
  • Jan 15, 2017 2:09pm Jan 15, 2017 2:09pm
All good Aaven. Things like that give you an idea of what COULD happen. I say could as the forex market will often do whatever it damn well feels like.
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