Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Thanks KeepCalmfx

His question was not answered and now it is. I am glad to see you online and also happy to see dttsomh also online. We will all get to where we want to go working as a team and I want to make it clear that there is nothing that you cannot tell me because in that way all fears are dealt with. Sometimes very nice people rather say nothing and avoid some issues. I love to hear everything because for me nothing is personal. I have recommended a great book available all over the world in paperback called "The Four Agreements" I recommend it highly and it is about the topic that I am discussing now.

I even will add a comment for myself from myself since dttsomh understands what I will say. Since I am a perfectionist and my nature is to work at warp speed when things do not happen in minutes for me it seems like days so what I now say and share here is "Benjaminis , take a deep breath and chill , Man"

I am off to the store to buy some food and take a break which means I am doing what I say which is always good to do. Thamks KeepCalmfx and dttsomh. We have a good team here with some others of course wayfarer being one of them and I am sure the others will contribute as well once they understand more about what we do here. Keep those questions coming carbonado !!!


Benjaminis

Hi Benjamin

I could not generate an report, here is a screenshot from my 2 FXCM Demo accounts.
I am off to bed, 1st day back to work tomorrow after a much needed break.

I will still post the screenshots each day and try my best to be active each day and contribute in any way I can!

P.s I would like to suggest something if I may.

I know that your new corporate website would be up and running soon with all of the details/info more categorised, but maybe for the mean while we can help new traders by editing the 1st posts on page 1 of this thread to refer them to specific posts like 506, 525,549,555,584 etc. like you mentioned in post 949?

For a newbie, viewing this thread for the 1st time, not being a fundamental trader can be very overwhelming. I think when referring them to specific post with important info of the strategy/way of trading would be very beneficial.

I don't think newbies is lazy in reading everything from the start. I think there is just to much of info to go through and one would not be able to catch up.

I messed up some trades right after New Year so this is where I currently stand, no open trades.(see attachement)
I will long US30 tomorrow (its 11 PM Sunday here) morning.
I'm quite overwhelmed by responsibilities I think until the end of January. I'll do my best to stay active here though. (and trade the demo account).

About the quoted post I did I agree with all you said Benjamin. The info and methodology kinda collides with what its learned on this thread. If I'll ever come upon information like that I'll PM you beforehand.
My intention was to show a point of view from someone that scalps on 1 minute timeline, and his ideas for the next week. I couldn't agree more that it sounded biased without proper arguments. But I still manage to see his point of view. For him this few day uptrend in USD means a large time frame considering he scalps. Anyway this is not what this thread is about, and I should never mix these things again. I also deleted it so new people that come and read won't get confused by it.

KeepCalmFX your account looks very good! Nicely done.
I'm off to sleep, regards!

Thank You KeepCalmfx

You have an excellent understanding and your results as everyone can see from your screenshot gets a grade of 90%. The only grade that really counts is how much money have you made at the end of each month. You have confirmed to me that any Forex trader that wants to look at Forex trading the way that it s presented as long as they show the qualities that you do of interest and desire and is willing to have an open mind and once the approach is understood success will come. I think your FXCM UK $50,000 US Funds account was opened on December 27, 2016 and here we are less than two weeks after as your numbers are more than satisfactory.

You are well on the road to great success and financial freedom. As long as you do your best then everything else will follow.


Benjaminis

KeepCalmfx

Your input is much appreciated. It was you who that first took the opportunity to review old posts and suggest the important posts, I used your suggestion and have brought things forward so a complete review of the first 28 pages is not needed. In other ways I think most of the progress and understanding started around page 30 once more Forex traders became involved.

Your suggestion will be incorporated and I invite anyone to share any thoughts on how it can be made easier to understand.


Benjaminis

Dear dttsomh

You did not mess anything up as this is a learning process and is done in such a way that you remove your fear of financial loss while you learn. I understand it is proper to acknowledge errors and I myself make them even today since we are all humans. You have a good understanding so it is just more practice and some discipline and you will be fine. You still managed a profit and you know what you need to do to get the results that you want.

Just in case it is a typo or you meant to say SHORT US 30 , I mention it. In closing no matter what no person on this thread will be put down or be shown in a bad light. We do whatever we do with good intentions and we only learn by understanding and sharing and working with a positive mental attitude.

You have those attributes and it is just a question of reaching your comfort zone which you will.

If I see someone is not doing things right, it is my responsibility to point it out and I am included in that statement so if you have something to tell me then please do. I never take things personal once I have learned it serves no purpose.


Benjaminis

Comments from Benjaminis: I am going to try something new to make it easier for everyone reading the research articles that I regularly post here. It probably was not noticed however in recent days I have not put the entire article on the post having started to use snippets that covered a section of the article that was relevant. Thanks to feedback from others that already have a good grasp of our Money Flow Method and Risk Management and since most likely coming here using technical indicators I will shift my focus when I do research and I link an article then I will make comments that either tie the article to Money Flow or our 4 Trading Plans and or Risk Management.

I would really appreciate feedback from our more experienced Forex traders if this new approach makes things easier to follow. Of course I also want to hear also for those still not yet up to speed if this style makes your learning curve easier and you can put your focus in making Forex trades on your FXCM UK Demo Platform.

Here we go with a very well written and very clear explanation of how we reached this stage and why the kind of information I basically said is worthless as for understanding anything. After reading this along with my inserted explanation,s you should understand more much quicker. Of course to make sure that you really understand PLEASE post any questions that you have or share what you think, so I can determine if you really understand.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,
What do the following headlines have in common?
US wages grow at fastest pace since 2009

Euro area economy ended year with strongest growth since 2011

Surge in home prices is beating the one in mortgage rates

Manufacturing in U.S. Expands at Fastest Pace in Two Years

German Inflation welcomed back
Obviously they’re all favorable, with the possible exception of German inflation – though even that is “welcome”. Taken together they paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good.
Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...107_debt_0.jpg
Consider:
Federal Debt in FY 2016 Jumped $1.4 Trillion, or $12,036 Per Household
(CNSNews.com) – In fiscal 2016, which ended on Friday, the federal debt increased $1,422,827,047,452.46, according to data released today by the U.S. Treasury.

At the close of business on Sept. 30, 2015, the last day of fiscal 2015, the federal debt was $18,150,617,666,484.33, according to the Treasury. By the close of business on Sept. 30, 2016, the last day of fiscal 2016, it had climbed to $19,573,444,713,936.79.

http://i1.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...size=550%2C419

According to the Census Bureau’s latest estimate, there were 118,215,000 households in the United States as of June. That means that the one-year increase in the federal debt of $1,422,827,047,452.46 in fiscal 2016 equaled about $12,036 per household.

The total federal debt of $19,573,444,713,936.79 now equals about $165,575 per household.

Commentary from Benjaminis: What anyone can understand just by reading what is written above and shown through charts is that everything seems rosy and we are out of the woods. As you will see in a few minutes this is not only NOT TRUE because of how the PERCEPTION was created. So now you see how it is seen and how it is spun because very few including those in the industry themselves do not want to go deeper since they have a big conflict of interest wanting the markets to go up and have their normal business in the investment business.

————

Corporates Lead Surge To Record $6.6 Trillion Debt Issuance
(The News PK) – Global debt sales reached a record this year, led by companies gorging on cheap borrowing costs.

The bond rally that dominated the first half of the year helped entice borrowers that issued debt via banks to take on just over $6.6tn, according to data provider Dealogic, breaking the previous annual record set in 2006.

Companies accounted for more than half of the $6.62tn of debt issued, underlining the extent to which negative interest rate policies adopted by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as a cautious Federal Reserve, encouraged the corporate world to increase its leverage.

Corporate bond sales climbed 8 per cent year on year to $3.6tn, led by blockbuster $10bn-plus deals to finance large mergers and acquisitions.

The remaining debt included sovereign bonds sold through bank syndication, US and international agencies, mortgage-backed securities and covered bonds. The figures exclude sovereign debt sold at regular auction.

“The low cost of financing with record-low interest rates simply made building up leverage tempting,” said Scott Mather, chief investment officer for core fixed income at Pimco.

Commentary from Benjaminis: What they have clearly done in the corporate world with the HELP from the Japan Central Bank who now buy securities on the open markets and the same central banks such as the ECB are buying these Trillions of Dollars of Bonds so they are putting all of us in greater debt with the help of ALL the CENTRAL BANKS led by the Private Group of 12 Banking entities including the LEAD CRIMINAL , The Federal Reserve or better known as the FED.

————

Total global debt tops 325 pct of GDP as government debt jumps: IIF
(Reuters) – Global debt levels rose to more than 325 percent of the world’s gross domestic product last year as government debt rose sharply, a report from the Institute for International Finance showed on Wednesday.
The IIF’s report found that global debt had risen more than $11 trillion in the first nine months of 2016 to more than $217 trillion. The report also found that general government debt accounted for nearly half of the total increase.

Emerging market debt rose substantially, as government bond and syndicated loan issuance in 2016 grew to almost three times its 2015 level. China accounted for the lion’s share of the new debt, providing $710 million of the total $855 billion in new issuance during the year, the IIF reported.
To sum up: Emerging market borrowing in 2016 was triple the year-earlier level. Corporate borrowing was the highest since 2006. And the US somehow managed to add another $trillion of government debt in the late stages of a recovery, when tax revenues are usually strong enough to shrink or eliminate deficits.

Since every penny of that new debt was presumably spent, it should come as no surprise that the latest batch of headline growth numbers have been impressive. Which is the basic problem with debt-driven growth: The good stuff happens right away while the bad stuff evolves over time – in the form of higher interest costs that depress future growth – making it hard to figure out what caused what.

That’s bad for regular people who have to live through the resulting slow-down or crisis. But it’s fine for the people who made the borrowing decisions because they get credit for the growth pop but won’t be around – having retired with huge pensions and high prestige – before the secondary effects really kick in.

This time, however, the cause-and-effect dynamic is being accelerated by a spiking dollar and rising interest rates, both of which raise the cost of debts that are denominated in dollars and/or have to be refinanced in the year ahead. So the mother of all financial crises that has been inevitable for a couple of decades has, thanks to all this new debt, taken a giant step towards “imminent.”

Commentary from Benjaminis: So now it must be clear what our Trade Plan is to SHORT US 30 and while we Short USD/JPY in fact as it goes down the Yen is getting stronger. Gold and Silver is being trading for reasons that are known and until we get it right we always risk a MAXIMUM of only 6% per any Trade Plan. As for the Money Flow that comes when everything collapses and it will very soon.

Now for the ICING on the cake. When I say something it is because it is true and confirmed by sources much more intelligent and knowledgeable than myself, although I can read and understand and I have been studying the FED and the banking system for over 50 years.

I have had my own experiences with banks. The article by MISHTALK is quite comical although TRUE at the same time. Feedback requested.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/08/in-s...come-up-empty/


In Search of Elephant in Room, Fed Governors Come Up Empty

08SundayJan 2017

Posted by MishMoments | January 8, 2017 1:13:53 | Economics

≈ 22 Comments

Comments in the 22 Comments.

https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/590bff...=identicon&r=GPaul Verchinskisaid:
January 8, 2017 1:33:55 at 1:33 PM
What “low unemployment”? 95 million not in the workforce that could work. An increase of 50% since the 90’s. Lot of folks living in parents basements. Paul Verchinski.

https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/83274d...=identicon&r=GJohn B. Goodrichsaid:
January 8, 2017 2:14:30 at 2:14 PM
It’s not solely for the benefit of the rich and the financial establishment. It’s for the benefit of the US Treasury, for which every 1/4 percent rise in the artificial interest rate, debt service costs increase $50 Billion. Remember that Congress’ debates over spending explode at $30 Billion. If sovereign debt rates rose to 5% (not unreasonable), our interest rate budget would increase from its present $360 Billion by $760 Billion. That’s more than the entire budget of the Department of Defense.

Some might argue that Ms. Yellen is the only thing standing between the US Treasury and a brutal crisis in our national government finances. And it is not unreasonable to believe that her discussions with the administration have made that clear. As someone pointed out, no one believes the Fed is “unpoliticized.”


Fed Governor Jerome Powell says “Signs of excesses are ‘isolated’. Asset Prices ‘not broadly unsustainable’“.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=466

The Federal Reserve does not see “broadly unsustainable asset prices,” a senior U.S. central banker said Saturday, with financial excesses stemming from almost a decade of ultralow interest rates “isolated.”

In remarks as part of a panel discussion at the American Finance Association meeting, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell defended the central bank’s policy that has kept interest rates at historic lows since the financial crisis. The Fed pushed rates to zero in December 2008 and has only raised them only twice since, both in the past year.
The policy of low rates has helped the economy recover, and has helped strengthen the financial sector, he said. “By many measures the U.S. financial system is much stronger than before the crisis,” Powell said.
There are trade-offs, because low interest rates can have adverse impacts on financial markets in a number of ways, he said. “Low rates can lead to excessive leverage and broadly unsustainable asset prices — things that we watch carefully for and do not observe at this point.”

Missed Elephants

 

1. The Greenspan Fed missed the dotcom bubble
2. The Greenspan Fed and the Bernanke Fed missed the housing bubble
3. The Bernanke Fed and the Yellen Fed missed the asset bubbles now in progress

The only way to not see this bubble is to be willfully blind to economic fundamentals for the sole benefit of banks and the wealthy, to the detriment of everyone else.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock


In Search of Elephant in Room, Fed Governors Come Up Empty

08SundayJan 2017

Posted by MishMoments | January 8, 2017 1:13:53 | Economics

≈ 22 Comments

Fed Governor Jerome Powell says “Signs of excesses are ‘isolated’. Asset Prices ‘not broadly unsustainable’“.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=466

The Federal Reserve does not see “broadly unsustainable asset prices,” a senior U.S. central banker said Saturday, with financial excesses stemming from almost a decade of ultralow interest rates “isolated.”

In remarks as part of a panel discussion at the American Finance Association meeting, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell defended the central bank’s policy that has kept interest rates at historic lows since the financial crisis. The Fed pushed rates to zero in December 2008 and has only raised them only twice since, both in the past year.
The policy of low rates has helped the economy recover, and has helped strengthen the financial sector, he said. “By many measures the U.S. financial system is much stronger than before the crisis,” Powell said.
There are trade-offs, because low interest rates can have adverse impacts on financial markets in a number of ways, he said. “Low rates can lead to excessive leverage and broadly unsustainable asset prices — things that we watch carefully for and do not observe at this point.”

Missed Elephants

 

1. The Greenspan Fed missed the dotcom bubble
2. The Greenspan Fed and the Bernanke Fed missed the housing bubble
3. The Bernanke Fed and the Yellen Fed missed the asset bubbles now in progress

The only way to not see this bubble is to be willfully blind to economic fundamentals for the sole benefit of banks and the wealthy, to the detriment of everyone else.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Commentary from Benjaminis: Yes, I know it got posted twice. Even better so you can read it twice. I will not be as politically correct or POLITE as Mish. These career CRIMINALS have intentionally done this and hopefully it is not to late to find a solution. The TITANIC will go down on the Donalds Watch.


PLEASE CLICK ON THE ELEPHANT !!!
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=466

http://financialrepressionauthority....eter_boockvar/

AND NOW TO FINALIZE WHAT THE TRUTH IS FROM YET ANOTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE SOURCE.

I will listen to the Podcast later on and in the meantime here is the written commentary clearly written.

FRA is joined by Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris in discussing their expectations for 2017, along with predictions for Europe and the global debt crisis.


Yra Harris is a recognized Trader with over 32 years of experience in all areas of commodity trading, with broad expertise in cash currency markets. He has a proven track record of successful trading through combination of technical work and fundamental analysis of global trends; historically based analysis on global hot money flows. He is recognized by peers as an authority on foreign currency. In addition to this he has Specific measurable achievements as a member of the Board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Yra Harris is a Registered Commodity Trading Advisor, Registered Floor Broker and a Registered Pool Operator. He is a regular guest analysis on Currency & Global Interest Markets on Bloomberg and CNBC. He has been interviewed for various articles in Der Spiegel, Japanese television and print media, and is a frequent commentator on Canadian Financial Network, ROB TV.


Prior to joining The Lindsey Group, Peter spent a brief time at Omega Advisors, a New York based hedge fund, as a macro analyst and portfolio manager. Before this, he was an employee and partner at Miller Tabak + Co for 18 years where he was recently the equity strategist and a portfolio manager with Miller Tabak Advisors. He joined Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette in 1992 in their corporate bond research department as a junior analyst. He is also president of OCLI, LLC and OCLI2, LLC, farmland real estate investment funds. He is a CNBC contributor and appears regularly on their network. Peter graduated Magna Cum Laude with a B.B.A. in Finance from George Washington University. Check out Peter’s new site at www.boockreport.com.

2017 OUTLOOK
There’s going to be this tug-of-war over Trump and the tax and regulatory policies he hopes to pass and initiate, and financial conditions that will continue to tighten in the interest rate perspective. Since November, the focus has been on the positives of Trump, and when people start looking at the details, people will have to acknowledge that what got us to record highs in the stock market was QE and zero interest rates. At some point we’ll have to shift back to interest rates and the uncertainty of what Trump will pass and the offsets in terms of tax policy.


What you failed to see materialize was a lot of year-end tax selling, except for losses. This is not a Reagan phenomenon. There are so many vast differences, mainly the debt load piled on the US and global economy. For every 100 basis point increase in interest expense is $470B. Despite all this excitement over the corporate tax income cut, there’s not enough attention being paid to the potential offsets. There’s a potential border adjustment tax, and a credit addicted economy where they may be taking away the deductibility of future interest expense.


Debt has to be serviced. It’s not all coming due in this year, but we don’t know how much of it is floating. If Trump changes the tax code, a lot of people will see when interest deductions will not be part of the equation anymore, just how great the impact will be on corporate earnings. If Trump doesn’t get these offsets, the corporate tax rate isn’t going to make it to 15-20%. People are going to start digging into the details of the Trump plan, and they’re going to realize there’s no free lunch here. Because of the size and depth of the deficit, he can’t just cut taxes. There’s going to be an offset, and that’s what people have to start paying attention to.


FISCAL DEBT DRIVING US DEBT
Entitlement obligations are now at 10% of GDP and rising. This trend is expected to escalate, give then trillions of unfunded liabilities obligated toward entitlement. On the private side, corporations have taken out about $620B for the share buybacks, and if rising interest rates begin to reverse that trend, that’s a big factor that could have the markets going in the other direction.


We’re seeing some political maneuvering from Trump, who’s controlling his narrative. We’re about to see the difference between campaigning and governing, and the reality of the latter.

KEY THEMES GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR
Rising inflation; slowing growth

US growth is still around the 2% level, but the question for 2017 is how much of the positive sentiment numbers that we’re seeing in manufacturing etc. is hopes and how much is actual improvement in business activities. Right now it’s still hopes, and GDP for 2017 is still going to be around the 2% level and we’re not going to see the benefits of Trump until 2018. Inflation levels are moving higher, partly due to the rate of change of the base effects of the decline in energy, on top of high prices of medical care and rent. We’re seeing inflation expectations rise in Europe and the US, and it gets down to how the Fed responds to that.

Interest rates may mug the markets and trump over reality. What got us here was QE, negative interest rates, and zero interest rates in the US. To think that that can reverse with no pain, and somehow fiscal policy will offset that, is delusional.

Commentary from Benjaminis - GREAT ONE WORD DESCRIPTION - DELUSIONAL.



THE PROBLEM OF GERMANY
The most important area is going to be the Euro.

The only way out of some of the mess that they’re in is for Germany to have higher inflation.

Right now with the Deutschmark 10% lower, the German current account surplus is about 8.5% of GDP. And yet, there’s nothing they can do about it because Germany is tied into this weak economic consortium, and they’re benefitting from it with phenomenal growth. The weaker the Euro goes, the more benefit Germany gets anyways. This is the year where Germany will have to decide if they’re going to be the transfer agent for all this growth. The operative question for this year is: who guarantees the ECB’s balance sheet?


We’re going to see firsthand the fallacy of demanding 2% inflation. Draghi doesn’t realize the epic bond bubble that he’s created. When you have huge amounts of negative yielding bonds in Europe and anemic levels of interest rates, and at the same time he wants 2% inflation. He’s desiring something that’s going to blow himself up.

Commentary from Benjaminis: BLOWUP !!!


As we head into 2017, Europe is going to become the centerpiece of the global financial system. It was a 50% decline in the value of Japanese and European banks that finally got them to realize flattening your yield curve into the ground is not a good idea. We are in the last inning of this last bout of monetary easing. People should not lose sight that interest rates, while still extraordinarily low, will move higher in the coming years and they should be prepared for that.


The markets are beginning to take some control. We’re going to get a rise in interest rates, and we have a very sensitive equity market.

As of 2015, of the profit pie, labour got the smaller share since WWII. That’s now beginning to shift, but there’s a lot of catch up on the labour side in terms of wages. While that’s good for earners, it’s not going to be good for corporate profits and companies will have to either slow down hiring or absorb those costs, or pass it on as higher prices.


EFFECTS OF CHINA
Right now non-performing loans in China are at 15-20% of GDP levels. China’s fallen into the same trap as the US, where it takes more and more debt to generate more GDP. This obsession with 6-7% growth has put them in this trap. The level of credit it takes to generate this level of GDP is out of their control.

Growth will continue to slow, and debt will continue to become a big problem, but China’s one big black box in the sense that they could throw a lot of things under the rug and keep it there in some controlled way. It’s very difficult to forecast how Chinese authorities are going to manage that.


If China were to implode and let their currency depreciate, then we’d have to change our scenarios because that could send a tidal wave of disinflation around the globe and they’ll just be exporting regardless of price. Their problem is far too much capacity, and unless they can miraculously shift their economy from an export oriented to a phenomenally domestic economy, and that won’t be an easy task with that debt load. If China makes the transition, food will be an important thing.


COMMODITY MARKETS FOR THIS YEAR
Gold’s going to trade where real interest rates are, and if you think Janet Yellen will be slow in raising interest rates in response to a rise in inflation, then you should be positive in gold and silver. It’s handled two rate hikes and a 14 year high in the dollar, and it’s still a hundred off the lows of last year. That was the bottom in this bear market, and higher prices are expected. With respect to emerging markets, Brazil and South Korea have good political direction and should be positive.


If you see the German inflation numbers, it’s obvious they’re debasing their currency as a way to bail out the EU.

BitCoin is up 150% year over year. Over the last couple of months it’s doubled. There’s something very wrong that BitCoin is doubling like that while gold is suffering. There’s a push for a non-fiat type currency. Right now they’re buying BitCoin, but the difference between gold and BitCoin is nonsensical.


The ECB will become the big issue for the German elections come September.

Commentary from Benjaminis: You saw where this information came from at the Top of the Article. This is information that you can take to the bank. Just make sure your bank is in your home !!! That is it for tonight. My long day is over posting here on our Thread of Knowledge.

The Wrap Up - Nightly

I am going to include a previous post of mine since I have given a fairly good in my opinion summary through the eyes of others where things really stand and where they are going. Good Evening All !!!


Benjaminis

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

BOMBS AWAY - BONDS AWAY

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/04/how...-massacre-get/

Worse “than the 1994 ‘Bond Massacre,'” with “sustained double-digit losses on bonds, subpar growth in developed markets, and balance sheet risks for banking systems….”
The backdrop: after 36 years of bond bull market, the amount of US bonds has ballooned to $47 trillion, up 24% from just ten years ago:

1. US Treasurys ($19.8 trillion),
2. Municipal bonds ($3.8 trillion)
3. Mortgage related bonds ($8.9 trillion)
4. Corporate bonds ($8.6 trillion)
5. Federal Agency bonds ($2 trillion)
6. Money Markets ($2.6 trillion)
7. Asset backed Securities ($1.3 trillion)

Bonds dwarfs the US stock market capitalization ($27 trillion). Bonds are a global phenomenon with even bigger bubbles elsewhere, particularly in NIRP countries, such as those in Europe, and in Japan. That’s why bonds matter. They’re enormous. And the damage they can do to investors is huge.
So how bad might the next bond bear market get? Paul Schmelzing, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and an academic at Harvard where he concentrates on 20th century financial history, published an unpleasant scenario on the Bank of England’s blog. He doesn’t mince words:
[A]s rates reached their lowest level ever in 2016, investors rather worried about the “biggest bond market bubble in history” coming to a violent end. The sharp sell-off in global bonds following the US election seems to confirm their fears. Looking back over eight centuries of data, I find that the 2016 bull market was indeed one of the largest ever recorded. History suggests this reversal will be driven by inflation fundamentals, and leave investors worse off than the 1994 “bond massacre.”

To arrive at his conclusion, he classifies bond bear markets into three types:

1. The inflation reversal of 1967-1971
2. The sharp reversal or “Bond Massacre” of 1994
3. The steepening yield curve or “value-at-risk shock” in Japan in 2003.

He explains that “historically, inflation acceleration has been a solid predictor of sharp bond selloffs.” But other “prominent episodes appear less correlated with fundamentals, and can inflict similar levels of losses.”
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/upl...CEO-income.png
Type 1: The inflation reversal of 1967-1971 occurred as annual inflation shot from 1.6% to 5.9%, along with some pressures on the federal budget from the Vietnam War that pushed the deficit from 0.2% in 1965 to 2.8% in 1968. But even when the budget moved back into balance, Treasurys continued their rout:
The “inflation reversal” leaves bondholders particularly bruised, and is most clearly associated with fundamentals: namely a sharp turnaround in realized consumer price inflation (CPI).

Type 2: The Sharp Reversal of 1994, or the “Bond Massacre,” turned out to be short-lived. It wasn’t caused by inflation, fiscal policies, or Fed action. The Fed did begin to raise rates in May 1994, but the turmoil had started in Q3 1993 and peaked in early 1994. Instead:
[T]he dramatic increase in leveraged bond positions by both US hedge funds and mundane money managers set in motion self-reinforcing liquidations once uncertainty over emerging markets including Turkey, Venezuela, Mexico, and Malaysia – all of which experienced sharp capital flow volatility – put pressure on speculative positions.

Type 3: The value-at-risk (VAR) shock in Japan in 2003 occurred when fears spread that the Bank of Japan, which was already doing QE before it was called QE, would taper its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. The yield curve, which had been extraordinarily flat, steepen sharply, as prices of longer-dated bonds sagged. These sagging prices hit banks, which hold large portfolios of JGBs, particularly hard. Their shares crashed to multi-year lows, and some received taxpayer bailouts:

[T]he sudden steepening of the JGB curve from the middle of 2003 posed a new set of challenges: calibrated risk management structures, known as “Value-at-Risk” models, required banks to shed JGB assets once their price started plummeting. Since most banks followed similar quantitative signals, and exerted a traditionally strong home bias in their fixed income portfolios, a concerted dumping of government bonds ensued.

Schmelzing concludes:
A pessimistic reader could certainly identify gloomy ingredients for the “perfect storm”: the potential for a painful steepening of bond curves, after a sustained flattening as in 2003, coupled with monetary tightening; and a multi-year period of sustained losses due to a structural return of inflation as in 1967.
But he considered the Type-2 “meltdown,” as it happened in 1994, less likely. At the time, highly leveraged bond positions and external shocks came together.

This time, there has been “progress on bank leverage regulations,” and “the current global capital flow cycle has already almost fully reversed from the cycle peak,” he writes.

Instead, it will more likely turn into a toxic combination of Type-1 and Type-2 bear markets:
Global inflation dynamics are picking up, at a time when Central bankers voice more tolerance for “inflation overshoots.” Though currently bank equity investors are cheering the steepening of yield curves, meanwhile, the 2003 Japan episode should fix regulators’ attention on the growing home-bias in government bonds.

Banks in some countries are particularly exposed to the VAR shock, including Italy, whose financial institutions hold 18% of their assets in Italian government debt, up from 12% in 2008. And “in most geographies,” banks hold these domestic government bonds mainly in “‘available-for-sale’ portfolio buckets, where they have to be marked-to-market.” That allowed banks to take the gains as central banks pushed down interest rates and inflated bond prices in recent years, but it now exposes them to losses and forced selling.

On balance, then, more than to a 1994-style meltdown, fixed income assets seem about to be confronted with dynamics similar to the second half of the 1960s, coupled with complications of a 2003-style curve steepening. By historical standards, this implies sustained double-digit losses on bond holdings, subpar growth in developed markets, and balance sheet risks for banking systems with a large home bias.

And that would not conform to the rosy scenario.

President-Elect Trump has been hounding certain companies with his drive-by tweets, to knock them around some, get their shares to sink, and cut some “deals.” And companies react. But there’s more to it than what’s on the surface. Read… Trump Tweets, Ford & GM Counter, their Shares Jump, the Peso Plunges, but the Jobs Won’t “Come Back” to the USA


Commentary from Benjaminis: So Now You Understand Why We Have Arrived At The COLLAPSE !!!

Yes I meant SHORT, I shorted now at 19.992 100 units.
Regards

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.
Here is the daily charts

U/J is on the move, shorted it as well

I'm +400 USD profits from these two shorts taken this morning. Account balance 50.663 -> 51.034.
Both pairs are having a pullback but bigger trend is still there, will leave them on until next pullback starts happening.
Also moved Stops at Break Even.

Good Morning

You are back in the swing of things. Before I went to bed, I went Short 100 units of USD/JPY at 117.289 and set my Limit Out at 116.954 because I noticed the pattern of it getting over 117.00 while Asia was open so by putting on the trade only looking to make $250.00 US or so, my profit was $286.44 US. If on the other hand it did not move to my Limit Out then I still got a good entry.


Benjaminis

Just a reminder to try using RANSQUACK. It is a help to have on while you are trading Forex.

My original post yesterday. Please give me feedback after you have used it for awhile. What it does is give you Important News within seconds of the release which again gives you another EDGE over others.

As some of you know I am now working on my corporate website which will be very much improved from what you see here with proper sections and other benefits all included. I have an agreement with an organization that supplies live news while the Forex Markets are open so if you do not happen to have access to a live news source RANSQUACK is much more than that. My company will enter into a contract with them so anyone using and subscribing to MY company website will have this service. In the past I used Trade The News another excellent service however RANSQUACK is easier for me to use. Since they offer a FREE TRIAL I will include their link so that you have much more instantaneous information while you trade.

DO NOT SIGN UP PAST THE THIRTY FREE DAYS AS I AM NOT PROMOTING THEIR SERVICES HERE. It is only for information purposes and is FREE and it will help you in your trading. Once you use the service please give me feedback on your using it.



https://ransquawk.com/

For those that do not have a TV near you while trading Forex which for me I could not trade without it on as it keeps me aware of developments and from time to time on CNBC they have excellent guests on and there are some excellent people working there. Of course do not always accept what they say since they have their own agenda or are cheerleaders so cannt be too realistic or they will not work there very long. You can get Bloomberg TV online and there is no cost for the service. The reason that I bring this up now is that I am going to turn on my CNBC station now in order to see if we start the day with Risk On or Risk Off and keep in mind that this can change at any moment so if it does you need to find out why ?

You should all get in the habit to do this exercise everyday.


Benjaminis

I now would like to share with everyone reading this thread and our Forex traders directly involved with trading their Forx FXCM UK trading accounts why I post so many research articles and how it evoves. At the moment there is no trading to do so I constantly am looking for relevant and important informatio such as the following article that I just read.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
The volatility in the Chinese currency has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous. After exploding 21 handles stronger in the biggest PBOC-engineered short-squeeze in history - erasing the entire post-election sell-off - offshore Yuan is now collapsing once again, down 350 pips tonight (and over 10 big figures from Thursday's highs). While interbank rates have calmed down, the rush to exit the currency has not...
The last two days are the biggest drop in offshore Yuan since Aug 2015's devaluation... as PBOC weakens its fix by the most sine June 2016.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0107_CNH_0.jpg

Pushing historical volatility to its highest since the Aug 2015 devaluation...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...107_CNH1_0.jpg
For some context, this level of volatility is over 10 standard deviations away from the pre-Aug 2015 norms.
Notably the moves accelerate afterPBOC Advisor Fan Gang told Bloomberg TV...

1. *PBOC WANTS TO SEE FX RESERVES REDUCE SMOOTHLY, GRADUALLY: FAN
2. *CHINA POLICY MAKERS NOT LIKELY GO FURTHER ON OUTFLOW CURBS: FAN
3. *YUAN OVERVALUED IN PAST 3-4 YEARS AGAINST DOLLAR: FAN
4. *CHINA POLICY MAKERS NOT LIKELY TO DROP INTERVENTION: FAN
5. *USE OF YUAN HAS INCREASED DESPITE RECENT DEPRECIATION: FAN
6. *CHINA NEEDS LESS FX RESERVE AFTER YUAN'S INCLUSION IN SDR: FAN

Which was followed by the state-run Global Times newspaper says in an English-language editorial, saying that the Chinese people will demand its government to “take revenge” if Donald Trump reneges on the one-China policy after becoming U.S. President.