Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
In a CNBC interview today with San Fransicko's Fed Williams, we heard several things that have been repeated ad nauseam by the establishment elite.

1. Get used to very weak GDP growth -- thanks to lack of investment and productivity.
2. Trump's fiscal stimulus, although inspirational, won't move the needle all that much.
3. We're at full employment, despite the fact that 94% of jobs created under Obama were part time.
4. Due to the specter of inflation, rates need to go higher...much higher.

During Obama's entire term as Divider in Chief, the Federal Reserve doddered him with comfy rates and QE programs. Now that he's all but a bad memory, the policy has shifted, dramatically, in spite of the fact that, economically, nothing has changed. If anything, Trump's policies towards trade with China pose as a significant headwind and may disrupt the globalist apple cart to a very serious degree of magnitude. However, the newly courageous Yellen Fed is taking to their fanatical position of raising borrowing costs for America's $20 trillion debt load, with energetic inspiration.
Fed's Williams discussing policy with Mr. Lies-man

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ir-sales-pitch

Snippet:

The rising hysteria about Russia is best understood as fulfilling two needs for Official Washington: the Military Industrial Complex’s transitioning from the “war on terror” to a more lucrative “new cold war” – and blunting the threat that a President Trump poses to the neoconservative/liberal-interventionist foreign-policy establishment.

By hyping the Russian “threat,” the neocons and their liberal-hawk sidekicks, who include much of the mainstream U.S. news media, can guarantee bigger military budgets from Congress. The hype also sets in motion a blocking maneuver to impinge on any significant change in direction for U.S. foreign policy under Trump.

– From the post: Who Benefits from War with Russia?

The following will probably be one of the most important articles I’ve ever written. After spending some time watching the recently concluded intelligence briefing to the U.S. Senate, I’ve concluded it to be one of the most disturbing and ominous things I can remember. I have several takeaways from what I saw, and none of them are good.
Before I get started, I want to remind you of something I wrote last summer in the piece, Japanese Government Shifts Further Toward Authoritarianism and Militarism.

One of the most discomforting aspects of Neil Howe and William Strauss’ seminal work on generational cycles, The Fourth Turning (1997), is the fact that as far as American history is concerned, they all climax and end with massive wars.

To be more specific, the first “fourth turning” in American history culminated with the Revolutionary War (1775-1783), the second culminated with the Civil War (1861-1865), while the third ended with the bloodiest war in world history, World War II (1939-1945). The number of years between the end of the Revolutionary War and the start of the Civil War was 78 years, and the number of years between the end of the Civil War and the start of World War II was 74 years (76 years if you use America’s entry into the war as your starting date). Therefore, if Howe & Strauss’ theory holds any water, and I think it does, we’re due for a major conflict somewhere around 75 years from the end of World War II. That brings us to 2020.

The more I look around, the more signs appear everywhere that the world is headed into another major conflict. From an unnecessary resurgence of a Cold War with Russia, to increased tensions in the South China Sea and complete chaos and destruction in the Middle East, the world is a gigantic tinderbox. All it will take to transform these already existing conflict zones into a major conflagration is another severe global economic downturn, something I fully expect to happen within the next 1-2 years. Frighteningly, this puts on a perfect collision course with the 2020 area.

One of the main reasons I opposed Hillary Clinton so vehemently, was I felt she embodied the neocon, neo liberal, military-intelligence-industrial complex’s burning desire for a global confrontation with Russia, as well as continued disastrous imperial adventures all over the world. Many of us hoped that with her loss, cooler heads would prevail and the American public might receive a much needed respite from never-ending war. This has not happened.
If anything, those in the Hillary camp have become even more aggressive and unhinged in their blood-lust, and appear willing to do “whatever it takes” to start a fight that will result in unimaginable devastation for the American public. This has become such an overwhelming concern to me, I felt the need to discuss what those of us who wish to avoid this outcome must do.
First, we need to understand the motivation of those driving us in this disastrous direction. Their primary motivation is pretty simple, a desire to retain power and status. They can see the writing on the wall when it comes to the disintegration of status quo authority and credibility, and they fundamentally understand the need to focus on an outside enemy in order to distract attention away from internal failures. Second, we need to understand where we are in the war-creating process. We must acknowledge that very powerful interests have already decided they want this war. To them, this isn’t about weighing facts and being reasonable, they’ve already made up their minds. As such, we are currently in the sales process.
Right at this very moment, we are being sold on this war by the media, politicians, intelligence agencies, as well as various other vested interests who benefit from imperial dominance abroad (unlike the vast majority of us who are severely harmed by it). When you understand that this is simply a huge sales pitch to herd the American public like sheep into a conflict that is not in their best interests, then everything you see and hear around you starts to make sense.
Just in case you doubt my theory that certain people have already decided they want this war, watch the following diatribe by neocon chicken hawk Lindsey “I never saw a war I didn’t like” Graham.




The only thing more disturbing than Graham’s endless rock-throwing lust, is what Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, said at the end of it: “I find myself in complete agreement with what he just said, and I appreciate it.” The lunatics are indeed running the asylum.
This is very important. James Clapper admits he wants to throw rocks at Russia. Why? Because in his opinion, Russia provided genuine information to Wikileaks which was embarrassing to the Democratic Party, and Hillary Clinton lost an election. Let’s just assume for a second that U.S. intelligence does have proof that Putin ran the operation and sent it to Wikileaks for the expressed purpose of helping Trump. If that can be proven, I absolutely think it is meaningful information, and I think the American people should be aware of it. However, would I be willing to get into a war with Russia over it? Certainly not. Would most Americans? I doubt it. To summarize, the American people don’t want war, but many D.C. politicians and special interests do. This divergence makes the situation all the more dangerous.
We need to understand that those who want this war will be absolutely relentless. The sales pitch will not end until they get exactly what they want. This is where all of us critical thinkers need to play a key role. We must be prepared to diligently analyze all unsubstantiated official claims, and push back against the war-mongers, because we know for certain the oligarch-owned corporate media won’t. We must be prepared to inform our fellow citizens about what’s happening so that we don’t fall victim to a cheap sales pitch with devastating consequences. Unfortunately, we must also be prepared for a possible deep state false flag if the current sales tactic falls on deaf ears.
This is not to say that in the course of human events war is never necessary. Sometimes it’s simply thrust upon you, but we’re nowhere near that point. Moreover, the fact so many people are pushing this conflict forward based on what is actually a pretty trivial accusation in the grand scheme of things, should be seen as particularly problematic. Which brings me to the most important point of all.
America cannot win a global war of such a scale if it is based on false pretenses and in the absence of exceedingly strong public support. This support does not exist. Will this serve as a necessary restraint against the masters of war and their devious plans? It’s too early to tell, but I do know that if we are unnecessarily pushed into a global conflagration, it will not end well for us. If this is the road our twisted status quo insists on taking us down, let us never forget who they are and the self-serving motivations behind their actions.
Finally, let me conclude with the following observation:

Follow
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...eXd_normal.jpgMichael Krieger @LibertyBlitz

Incredible how smoothly we've transitioned from existential threat al-Qaeda, to existential threat ISIS, to existential threat Russia.

12:06 PM - 5 Jan 2017

The rising hysteria about Russia is best understood as fulfilling two needs for Official Washington: the Military Industrial Complex’s transitioning from the “war on terror” to a more lucrative “new cold war” – and blunting the threat that a President Trump poses to the neoconservative/liberal-interventionist foreign-policy establishment.

By hyping the Russian “threat,” the neocons and their liberal-hawk sidekicks, who include much of the mainstream U.S. news media, can guarantee bigger military budgets from Congress. The hype also sets in motion a blocking maneuver to impinge on any significant change in direction for U.S. foreign policy under Trump.

– From the post: Who Benefits from War with Russia?

The following will probably be one of the most important articles I’ve ever written. After spending some time watching the recently concluded intelligence briefing to the U.S. Senate, I’ve concluded it to be one of the most disturbing and ominous things I can remember. I have several takeaways from what I saw, and none of them are good.
Before I get started, I want to remind you of something I wrote last summer in the piece, Japanese Government Shifts Further Toward Authoritarianism and Militarism.

One of the most discomforting aspects of Neil Howe and William Strauss’ seminal work on generational cycles, The Fourth Turning (1997), is the fact that as far as American history is concerned, they all climax and end with massive wars.

To be more specific, the first “fourth turning” in American history culminated with the Revolutionary War (1775-1783), the second culminated with the Civil War (1861-1865), while the third ended with the bloodiest war in world history, World War II (1939-1945). The number of years between the end of the Revolutionary War and the start of the Civil War was 78 years, and the number of years between the end of the Civil War and the start of World War II was 74 years (76 years if you use America’s entry into the war as your starting date). Therefore, if Howe & Strauss’ theory holds any water, and I think it does, we’re due for a major conflict somewhere around 75 years from the end of World War II. That brings us to 2020.

The more I look around, the more signs appear everywhere that the world is headed into another major conflict. From an unnecessary resurgence of a Cold War with Russia, to increased tensions in the South China Sea and complete chaos and destruction in the Middle East, the world is a gigantic tinderbox. All it will take to transform these already existing conflict zones into a major conflagration is another severe global economic downturn, something I fully expect to happen within the next 1-2 years. Frighteningly, this puts on a perfect collision course with the 2020 area.

One of the main reasons I opposed Hillary Clinton so vehemently, was I felt she embodied the neocon, neoliberal, military-intelligence-indsutrial complex’s burning desire for a global confrontation with Russia, as well as continued disastrous imperial adventures all over the world. Many of us hoped that with her loss, cooler heads would prevail and the American public might receive a much needed respite from never-ending war. This has not happened.

If anything, those in the Hillary camp have become even more aggressive and unhinged in their bloodlust, and appear willing to do “whatever it takes” to start a fight that will result in unimaginable devastation for the American public. This has become such an overwhelming concern to me, I felt the need to discuss what those of us who wish to avoid this outcome must do.
First, we need to understand the motivation of those driving us in this disastrous direction. Their primary motivation is pretty simple, a desire to retain power and status. They can see the writing on the wall when it comes to the disintegration of status quo authority and credibility, and they fundamentally understand the need to focus on an outside enemy in order to distract attention away from internal failures. Second, we need to understand where we are in the war-creating process. We must acknowledge that very powerful interests have already decided they want this war. To them, this isn’t about weighing facts and being reasonable, they’ve already made up their minds. As such, we are currently in the sales process.
Right at this very moment, we are being sold on this war by the media, politicians, intelligence agencies, as well as various other vested interests who benefit from imperial dominance abroad (unlike the vast majority of us who are severely harmed by it). When you understand that this is simply a huge sales pitch to herd the American public like sheep into a conflict that is not in their best interests, then everything you see and hear around you starts to make sense.
Just in case you doubt my theory that certain people have already decided they want this war, watch the following diatribe by neocon chickenhawk Lindsey “I never saw a war I didn’t like” Graham.




The only thing more disturbing than Graham’s endless rock-throwing lust, is what Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, said at the end of it: “I find myself in complete agreement with what he just said, and I appreciate it.” The lunatics are indeed running the asylum.
This is very important. James Clapper admits he wants to throw rocks at Russia. Why? Because in his opinion, Russia provided genuine information to Wikileaks which was embarrassing to the Democratic Party, and Hillary Clinton lost an election. Let’s just assume for a second that U.S. intelligence does have proof that Putin ran the operation and sent it to Wikileaks for the expressed purpose of helping Trump. If that can be proven, I absolutely think it is meaningful information, and I think the American people should be aware of it. However, would I be willing to get into a war with Russia over it? Certainly not. Would most Americans? I doubt it. To summarize, the American people don’t want war, but many D.C. politicians and special interests do. This divergence makes the situation all the more dangerous.
We need to understand that those who want this war will be absolutely relentless. The sales pitch will not end until they get exactly what they want. This is where all of us critical thinkers need to play a key role. We must be prepared to diligently analyze all unsubstantiated official claims, and push back against the war-mongers, because we know for certain the oligarch-owned corporate media won’t. We must be prepared to inform our fellow citizens about what’s happening so that we don’t fall victim to a cheap sales pitch with devastating consequences. Unfortunately, we must also be prepared for a possible deep state false flag if the current sales tactic falls on deaf ears.
This is not to say that in the course of human events war is never necessary. Sometimes it’s simply thrust upon you, but we’re nowhere near that point. Moreover, the fact so many people are pushing this conflict forward based on what is actually a pretty trivial accusation in the grand scheme of things, should be seen as particularly problematic. Which brings me to the most important point of all.
America cannot win a global war of such a scale if it is based on false pretenses and in the absence of exceedingly strong public support. This support does not exist. Will this serve as a necessary restraint against the masters of war and their devious plans? It’s too early to tell, but I do know that if we are unnecessarily pushed into a global conflagration, it will not end well for us. If this is the road our twisted status quo insists on taking us down, let us never forget who they are and the self-serving motivations behind their actions.
Finally, let me conclude with the following observation:

Follow
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...eXd_normal.jpgMichael Krieger @LibertyBlitz

Incredible how smoothly we've transitioned from existential threat al-Qaeda, to existential threat ISIS, to existential threat Russia.
12:06 PM - 5 Jan 2017

HEADS UP - VERY IMPORTANT ARTICLE - FEEDBACK APPRECIATED !!! Benjaminis still working hard because we need to know !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
By EconMatters

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fOlIjB3pg...crash-1929.jpg
We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks extreme monetary policies.



I have news for you we already had the "Inflation Trade" from 2008 to 2016, now we are setting up for the Market Crash Trade from 2017 until Stocks find a bottom based upon fundamental valuations that are sustainable long term. Central Banks have all shot their wad, they are loaded to the gills with assets, which once the decline comes, and people (including central banks) start experiencing losses on their portfolio holdings, selling begets selling, and the Stock Markets around the Globe start crashing like the Tulip Market did, and every bubble market since the beginning of time.



This always plays out the same way every single time. Silicon Valley has already started crashing, the Brick and Mortar Retailers are going through their own systemic recession, the financiers who own this real estate are headed for bankruptcy court, I think the Oil Market still has major systemic headwinds, the automobile industry I expect is next to enter a major decline period, and Healthcare and the Medical System is about to go into its own recession because Healthcare is unaffordable by a large margin. Throw in the added dynamic that all countries globally are carrying way too much debt since the financial crisis, and central banks have done all they could to inflate asset prices.


I put a recession starting this year at around 50%, and Donald Trump is the most unstable leader we have ever had as President of the United States. Economics and the Fundamentals matter and given my analysis the upside potential for stocks versus the downside risk has never been greater. The stock market and financial markets globally right now are like investing in the last stages of the Tulip Market Bubble right before it Crashed!

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GfPwfD9_I...ance-sheet.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dTcl9K_Aa...ance-sheet.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pzH69Y04K...ance-sheet.png
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mrTqX__-Q...ance-sheet.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hC1XIx1lu...ance-sheet.png
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-u9MPdgCNL...ance-sheet.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OfYzy0C-y...ance-sheet.png
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WcwSFYoTT...ance-sheet.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-q1eQMO1eP...ance-sheet.png
I repeat who is left to buy, do you really want to buy stocks after all this buying has taken place since the financial crisis by Central Banks? It isn`t whether the S&P 500 can go to 2300 or not? The reality is that stocks are in a bubble, and looking at all the central bank buying over the last 8 years it is no wonder; just look at all these central bank balance sheet charts. Stocks are overvalued, and not by just a little bit, but by at least 50% by my models and that is based upon current global economic growth. If we enter a global recession which I put at around 65% over the next 16 months, think in terms of taking out the 2000 and 2008 stock market bubble highs/support areas in the markets. In short, the downside risk exposure for long only investors has never been greater in the history of financial markets.


When I hear market pundits talk about the emergence of "The Inflation Trade" I just shake my head at how stupid people (professionals who make a living in the industry) are from a basic competency standpoint. What we have just witnessed in Financial Markets given the 2.5% global growth dynamics since 2007 is the "Greatest Inflation Trade" in the history of Modern Financial Markets. Professionals in my industry really lack basic critical thinking skillsets, just a little smarter on average than Sales personnel.


When it comes to Stock Market Bubbles, the crash always cleans out the industry carcasses, only to be replaced by equally dumb personnel, and the entire cycle that is 'financial markets stupidity' repeats itself similar to a standard business cycle. Given the basic IQ and Critical Thinking Abilities of most people in this industry, it should scare the hell out of you as an investor when you hear this "I don't see how you can't be bullish in this environment" given the considerable history of financial markets and their propensity for crashing, and the current valuations versus the fundamentals of most stocks right here, coming to the ending stages of an eight year business cycle.


We are long overdue for a good old fashioned recession to clean out the financial market excesses of the last 8 years of insane stupidity.
SWISS NATIONAL BANK

BOERSENSTRASSE 15, ZURICH, , CH-8022, (144) 631-3111

Report Date: 09/30/2016

Position Statistics

Total Positions
2,523
New Positions
4
Increased Positions
219
Decreased Positions
1,809
Positions with Activity
2,028
Sold Out Positions
8
Total Mkt Value (in $ millions)
63,726


Institutional Holdings information is filed by major institutions on form 13-F with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Sector Weighting

Energy
9.15%
Basic Materials
4.05%
Industrials
12.71%
Consumer Cyclicals
13.95%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals
10.5%
Financials
9.39%
Healthcare
13.32%
Technology
19.71%
Telecommunication Services
3.48%
Utilities
3.74%


This never ends well for Financial Markets, and this time will be no different, the fascinating psychology of asset bubbles and how fortunes are lost never gets old in my book! Capital Destruction is a fascinating concept, if you really think about it.
EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

My previous HEADS UP POST maybe and probably is the most important one that I have shared here. Have a look of the charts of all of the Central Banks of the World that shows their Balance Sheets. Look at the INCREDIBLE RISE since 2008. This is HISTORY repeating itself and since today, WE , all of us are part of Globalization when this BUBBLE of ALL BUBBLES bursts ALL inflated Assets will return to their true Asset Value. However before that happens there will be extreme undervaluation's before the markets reach stability. Of course the time line is unknown however we can see it about to unfold right in front of our eyes.

Knowing this not only lets us plan for the future it lets us understand the direction of the markets before most others that will be reading about it in their newspapers and watching on their televisions.

I repeat the start of the article that I just discussed in my own words in case not everyone read the whole article.


https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fOlIjB3pg...crash-1929.jpg
We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks extreme monetary policies.



I have news for you we already had the "Inflation Trade" from 2008 to 2016, now we are setting up for the Market Crash Trade from 2017 until Stocks find a bottom based upon fundamental valuations that are sustainable long term. Central Banks have all shot their wad, they are loaded to the gills with assets, which once the decline comes, and people (including central banks) start experiencing losses on their portfolio holdings, selling begets selling, and the Stock Markets around the Globe start crashing like the Tulip Market did, and every bubble market since the beginning of time.

For those reading this thread for the first time since I am now posting during the time that Asia is open for trading, I have been teaching Forex traders the proper way to earn profits and become a professional Forex Trader. That does not mean that this is the only way it should be done however for the last 14 years it has worked for myself. Any method that you use that earns you profits consistently is the one that you should continue to use.

(1) 20% is of course the Forex Trader.
(2) 20% is Risk Management in case the Professional or Retail Forex Trader makes the wrong trading decision.
(3) 20% is the EDGE that lets you trade with the markets and NOT AGAINST them because the MARKETS WIN EVERY TIME !!! (MONEY FLOW)
(4) 20% is the Technical Indicators that I see clearly that you are skilled in.
(5) 20% is the Fundamental News released every day for everyone to see at the same time whether they are real or FAKE NEWS !!!

Notice how the two most common ones used by all Forex traders are Technical Indicators which includes Supply and Demand and Support and Resistance and Pivot Points or whatever system that has been developed in that field is number FOUR and Fundamentals is ranked number FIVE.

I think that this is the clearest explanation so far. For myself trading Forex is a way of life and I have the desire and love for it because it keeps me involved in the world and what is happening.




Benjaminis

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034...2afb3f8b8&dr=1

Snippet:

Summary
US major equity indices are near all time high. The US Dollar Index broke through the psychological 100 level, reaching a decade high.

Investors chased rising yields and subscribed to the prospect of an improving US economy (“Make America great again!”).

President-elect Trump had a pitch for everyone. Such euphoria reminded me much of 1999, where all tides were rising in the face of rising interest rates.
Weakness can already be seen in the utilities and housing sectors. If consumer spending slows we could see a quick reversal and downward spiral in yield, equities, and the dollar.

Instead of shorting the surging US dollar, I am buying gold and silver, which are contrarian plays to the US dollar.

With US major equity indices near all-time high, investors concluded 2016 with great optimism. A new era is dawning with Trump's US presidential election victory in November.

The US Dollar Index broke through the psychological 100 level, reaching a decade high as investors chased rising yields and subscribed to the prospect of an improving US economy ("Make America great again!")
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...rId7_thumb.jpg
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index reached a new all-time high as equities investors anticipate higher consumer spending and corporate earnings, lower tax rates across the board, repatriation of foreign earnings, mega-fiscal infrastructure spending, and steadfast de-regulation.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...rId8_thumb.jpg
President-elect Trump is a great salesman - he had a pitch for everyone. Such euphoria reminded me much of 1999 where all tides were rising in the face of rising interest rates.

As we enter into 2017, which "mole" is likely to get "whacked?" Let's visit:
Interest Rates
Bond yields for all maturities jumped substantially since the November US Presidential election. https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...rId9_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id10_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id11_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id12_thumb.jpg
The mainstream press put a positive spin on rising yields as the sign of imminent economic expansion. To me, it comes down to supply and demand: yields need to rise if more government borrowing is in store to fund the railways, bridges, airports and wall at the US-Mexican border.
Looking at the long-term trend, yields remain firmly in a downtrend since 2000 (or since 1980, if you wish the draw the line that far) suggesting inflation and/or growth remain tepid.

Keep in mind though, that yields have always been tough to forecast and explain because they are highly distorted by federal and foreign governments (where profit-seeking is not the sole objective in holding treasury paper), which collectively own more than 50% of US treasury securities.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id13_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id14_thumb.jpg
The 2-year treasury yield bottomed in 2013 and has been rising ever since.
My gut tells me more Federal Reserve rate hikes are in store because of rising treasury yields. The market can possibly cushion a maximum of an additional 50 basis point increase in yields, with the Federal Reserve guarding closely and ready to reverse rate hikes at any sign of distress (such as slower GDP, rising unemployment, fall in consumer spending, low consumer sentiment, or rising mortgage defaults) - and don't be surprised if the Federal Reserve deploys Quantitative Easing in an attempt to rein-in 2-year and 10-year yields.

Keep in mind, with government debt to GDP at about 100%, a 1% hike in interest rates would mean a 1% drag on GDP.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id15_thumb.jpg
US Equities and Economy
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have all posted all-time highs since November, registering 8%, 5% and 3% gains since November 1, respectively. Much of these gains were driven by the financial and transportation sectors.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id16_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id17_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id18_thumb.jpg
Dividend stocks with heavy debt like in the utilities sector have been flat however. So is the home construction sector which is in fact rolling over. Both indices are beneath their 200-day moving-average and flashing warning signs with further rising yields. While bankers rejoice today as yields climb back from unnatural negative territory, the festivity may be short lived if long-term rates continue to climb and the lending business begins to slow and mortgage portfolios start to turn sour.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id19_thumb.jpg
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...Id20_thumb.jpg
Everyone asks the same question: Just how much of the future growth has been factored in by the market? Without expanding this subject into a book, I will bring up manufacturing growth, infrastructure spending and offshore repatriation tax revenue as stimulus examples.


Revival of the US manufacturing sector has been a hot topic. Currently, the value added by the manufacturing sector is approximately 12% of US GDP, or about US$2 trillion (i.e. US$17 trillion x 12%). A 5% growth in manufacturing (i.e. US$100 billion) through Trump's policies to bring jobs back from Mexico and China would translate to a 0.6% growth in GDP. The numbers seem reasonable within Trump's first term, considering the examples set by advanced manufacturing powerhouses Germany and Japan, where their manufacturing sectors account for 23% and 19% of their country's GDP, respectively.
If Trump wants to bump US GDP growth from 2% to 3%, where will the rest of this growth come from?


According to a Bloomberg article dated November 13, 2016:
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed spending up to $1 trillion over a decade to make America's infrastructure 'second to none.'
Except for China that is.
The world's second-largest economy has already topped that this year alone, with $1.4 trillion splurged on roads, railways, bridges, telecom networks and other infrastructure in the ten months through October.


Trump's plan for an "America's Infrastructure First" policy mirrors China's build-it-and-they-will-come model, except on a much smaller scale. China has spent about $11 trillion on infrastructure in the last decade - more than 10 times what Trump is proposing. Some economists reckon it needs to spend about $2 trillion a year going forward to keep economic growth humming at today's level.

That building binge has transformed China's continent-sized economy. Its 20,000 kilometers of high-speed railways account for more than 60 percent of the world's total, and it's not done yet, with plans to boost that distance to 30,000 kilometers by 2020.

"Acela Express trains are the only true high-speed trainsets in the United States. Amtrak uses them on a high-speed service between Washington, D.C. and Boston via New York City and Philadelphia along the Northeast Corridor (NEC) in the Northeast United States.
US$68 billion is reportedly the cost for the 520-mile high-speed rail linking San Francisco to Los Angeles.
0.6% of US GDP is US$100 billion - a very reasonable infrastructure spending amount to add to GDP growth. This spending can be funded by the 10% repatriation tax levied from overseas profits estimated at US$2.9 trillion in cash by Nomura.

If this one-time tax revenue source doesn't pan out, Trump can resort to deficit spending. Current deficit numbers aren't as dire as most conservative hawks portray:
The US budget deficit in 2016 was approximately US$600 billion, or about 3% of the US GDP. An extra US$100 billion allocation to infrastructure would increase the ratio of deficit to GDP by 0.5% to 3.5%, which would still be below the historic average since 1970.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...9841995096.png
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...0025643144.png
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...0186386685.png
The caveat to this entire rosy outlook, is that the housing market and consumer spending must hold up.

Given the close correlation between 2-year treasury yields and the federal funds rate, if the 2-year yield continues to trend up (for whatever reason: capital flight from China, rising inflation, other foreign government staged trade war with the US by selling of US treasury securities, or a larger-than-life fiscal deficit, to name a few), the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike rates aggressively in 2017, which could prematurely choke off any future growth to come.
By the same token, if long-term yields continue to rise unabated, it would make a serious dent in the US$13 trillion mortgage market, damaging both consumer spending (which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy) and the stability of the financial sector that holds non-performing mortgage portfolios facing a big valuation haircut.
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https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...9420548692.png
Copper and Oil

Copper and oil prices are up in anticipation of greater raw materials consumption through building railroads, airports and the wall at the US-Mexican border. While the rally is impressive in the face of a stronger US dollar as investors are bidding up copper based on a promise and not present day reality, will the rally be sustainable throughput 2017 or will it turn into buy on rumor, sell on news variety?
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...8254581025.png
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In summary, the technical upside break-out of the US dollar index and equity markets must be respected until the trend reverses.

Trump's team can plausibly achieve 3%-4% GDP growth with deficit spending. In absolute terms, a 1% hike in US GDP = US$170 billion and a 5% recent hike in the US equity market translates to approximately a US$1.1 trillion increase. Only time will tell if the additional 1% Trump induced GDP is enough to satisfy US dollar and equity investors at current valuations.

Weakness can already be seen in the utilities and housing sectors. If consumer spending slows due to rising yields or if Trump is unable to push through ambitious fiscal policies, we could see a quick reversal and downward spiral in yield, equities, copper and the US dollar.
Instead of shorting the surging US dollar, I am averaging in gold and silver purchases, which are contrarian plays to the US dollar.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...7899752097.png
Adventurous investors can consider investing in gold and silver mining companies. One such company is Prophecy Development Corp. (TSE: PCY, OTCPK: PRPCF).
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...7290897362.png
As we enter into the Chinese zodiac year of the fire rooster (which, of the Five Elements, belongs to Metal (Jin - or "gold")), perhaps it's a sign of good times to come in 2017 for the gold bull?

I own physical silver and manage Prophecy Development Corp. (TSX: PCY, OTCPK: PRPCF) which engages in silver exploration.
John Lee, CFA.
[email protected]
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...6671625123.png
John Lee, CFA is an accredited investor with over two decades of investing experience in metals and mining equities. Mr. Lee joined Prophecy Development Corp. (www.prophecydev.com) in 2009 as the Company's Chairman. Under John Lee's leadership, Prophecy raised over $100 million through the Toronto Stock Exchange and acquired a portfolio of silver assets in Bolivia, coal assets in Mongolia, and a Titanium project in Canada. John Lee is a Rice University graduate with degrees in economics and engineering.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PCY PRPCF SILVER.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-trump-support

Snippet:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ure-234204.jpg
by The_Real_Fly
Jan 4, 2017 10:52 PM


Literally nothing is going to happen here. Let's not pretend Congress will actually pass a Rand Paul bill that simply requests for the Federal Reserve to be audited. After all, they're the central bank for the world now, rigging markets and fixing rates almost on demand. There are a lot of people with a lot of questions for the Fed -- an entity who presides over an unlimited balance sheet and the power to both print fiat currency at will and to increase the amount of interest it charges the U.S. government.

Any person or entity under the auspices of the SEC or FINRA is forced to undergo routine audits, just to make sure everything is kosher. Why isn't the same standard used for the Fed?

Rand Paul wants to change that and he says it has the support of President elect Trump.

On Tuesday, U.S. Senator Rand Paul reintroduced his Federal Reserve Transparency Act, widely known as the “Audit the Fed” bill, to prevent the Federal Reserve from concealing vital information on its operations from Congress. Eight cosponsors joined Senator Paul on the legislation.

Representative Thomas Massie (KY-4) has introduced companion legislation, H.R. 24, in the U.S. House.

“No institution holds more power over the future of the American economy and the value of our savings than the Federal Reserve,” said Sen. Paul, “yet Fed Chair Yellen refuses to be fully accountable to the people’s representatives.”

“The U.S. House has responded to the American people by passing Audit the Fed multiple times, and President-elect Trump has stated his support for an audit. Let’s send him the bill this Congress.”

“The American public deserves more insight into the practices of the Federal Reserve,” said Rep. Massie. “Behind closed doors, the Fed crafts monetary policy that will continue to devalue our currency, slow economic growth, and make life harder for the poor and middle class. It is time to force the Federal Reserve to operate by the same standards of transparency and accountability to the taxpayers that we should demand of all government agencies.”

On January 12, 2016, a bipartisan Senate majority voted 53-44 in support of Audit the Fed.

S. 16 would require the nonpartisan, independent Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a thorough audit of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and reserve banks within one year of the bill’s passage and to report back to Congress within 90 days of completing the audit.

Audit the Fed would amend section 714b of Title 31 of the U.S. Code to allow the GAO to fully audit:

transactions for or with a foreign central bank, government of a foreign country, or nonprivate international financing organization;

deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy matters, including discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, and open market operations;

transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee; or

a part of a discussion or communication among or between members of the Board and officers and employees of the Federal Reserve System related to clauses (1)–(3) of this subsection.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/files/2017/01/paul.png
Isn't anyone interested in learning how this happened and how they intend to unwind it?
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/files/2...ance-Sheet.jpg

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=48275#more-48275

Snippet:


Worst in Class
BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...en-768x432.jpgAlice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

Image credit: Disney

Automaker General Motors (GM) used to have an assembly plant in East Baltimore. Then one Friday in May 2005, at 4:30 in the afternoon, the last Chevrolet Astro van rolled off the assembly line at the Broening Highway General Motors Plant.

Some eyes misted up. Some were angry. Some laughed. The van hadn’t been updated in 20 years. It was widely seen as a safety hazard and voted “worst in its class” by the experts.

Peter Morici, a professor of business at the University of Maryland, summed up GM’s problem to a reporter for The Baltimore Sun:

“If you sell an inferior product and you expect a premium price, you’re going to go out of business.”

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...01/the-end.jpgThe rear end of the last Astro, and with it the end of the line for the Broening Highway General Motors Plant after seven decades of continuous operation. When the plant started assembling the Astro, it had actually been quite a coup, as the model filled an important niche in terms of interior size and towing capacity. But no-one ever thought to improve much on the original concept, aside from a few occasional touch-ups – and eventually, it was no longer competitive.

Photo credit: John Makely

In its heyday, the plant operated two shifts and employed 7,000 workers. Dundalk, the nearest neighborhood, boomed – with bar traffic ebbing and flowing as one shift took up work and another left off.

But by 2004, the shop was spinning its wheels. GM owed so much to the past – in the form of pension and medical benefits to retired employees – it had little money or attention available for the future. The company paid out more than $5 billion that year for retirees’ aching backs, high blood pressure, and other ailments.

A year later, the plant sputtered to a halt and went silent. The thousand-plus GM workers still on the job in Maryland grumbled. But no one, as far as we know, suggested punishing the company with a penalty tax on Michigan-made vans sold in the state.
For some reason – never explained – Marylanders may bristle at cheap imports from Mexico or China. But they seem to take imports from Michigan or California in stride.

Border Tax
But what’s this? GM now produces the Chevrolet Cruze, a cheap domestic automobile favored by the people left behind by globalization and financialization. It is assembled in Mexico. President-elect Donald Trump indignantly tweets that GM:

“…is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A. or pay big border tax!”

Both of those options presume a higher sticker price for the Cruze. Neither the president-elect nor his trade guru, economics Ph.D. Peter Navarro, have revealed how forcing Trump supporters to pay more for a basic set of wheels would help them.
Of course, no one knows how or when such a choice would be imposed. But one thing is sure: Someone is going to be disappointed.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...02-768x285.jpgThe 2016 Chevy Cruze model sleekly gleams in the setting sun of Guadalajara… and has thereby become an unexpected object of controversy. Maybe depicting it right in front of a wall wasn’t really a good idea. Meanwhile, GM had to explain that most of the Chevy Cruze models for the US market are in fact assembled in Ohio anyway.

Photo credit: chevrolet.com

It’s not what he doesn’t know that gets a man into trouble, as someone once pointed out; it’s what he thinks he knows that ain’t so. And, usually, he thinks he knows that someone other than himself is doing something he oughtn’t.

Mr. Trump, and apparently much of the U.S. electorate, thinks GM oughtn’t be assembling its autos in Mexico. Why not? Because it causes U.S. jobs to migrate south of the border. But why is a job north of the Rio Grande better than a job south of it?

That, too, has never been adequately explained. Only one person can have a job. If it is not you, what do you care if it goes to someone in Detroit or someone in Guadalajara?

Presumably, people in both cities are equally charming and equally worthy of employment.

What Exactly is a “Better Trade Deal”?
In addition to trying to preserve the past in the U.S., Mr. Trump says he is keen to negotiate better trade deals.

We understand free trade. But the exact nature of a “better” trade deal has never been explained, either. As near as we can tell, it is like a “better” calendar, with 100 days so it is easier to keep track of… a “better” election process, in which your candidate always wins.
China exploits its working people to undercut U.S. manufacturers, say the critics. Its factories don’t have to abide by U.S. safety, environmental, or labor rules. Pretty underhanded, isn’t it? Dastardly. Real capitalist pigs, those Chinese, right?
“Yes,” says the man about to get himself into trouble. “The Chinese are bad people… doing a bad thing. We have to retaliate.” In today’s Wall Street Journal, for example, Trump’s trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, says he wants to “level the playing field for American workers.”

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...march-1882.jpgWouldn’t you know it, those darn Chinese workers were so fast and flexible in the 1870s already that we apparently haven’t known “what we shall do with our boys” ever since!

Illustration by: George Frederick Keller

But perhaps he should get out one of those new laser levels. Who breathes polluted air? Who works 12-hour shifts in unheated factories? Who makes $1 an hour without complaining so that someone on the other side of the planet can get an “everyday low price” on some gewgaw at Walmart?
Currently, Americans get useful gadgets and gizmos made in China and shipped here at Chinese expense. In return, U.S. shoppers give the Chinese pieces of green paper (or the electronic version thereof).

The sellers, who already have plenty of our currency, are at a loss as to what to do with more of it. Typically, they sell their dollars for Treasury securities. In other words, they trade one IOU for another from the same issuer.

Since 1990, the accumulated U.S. trade deficit with China has topped $4 trillion and is now running at about $1 billion every 24 hours. Americans have gotten autos, computers, TVs, and the other paraphernalia of modern life here in the U.S. In return, the Chinese have gotten precisely nothing.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...-5-768x432.jpgWe wouldn’t say they have gotten nothing out of it, given that the thing you mostly don’t see in the background above is known as Beijing on clear days. The problem is that such clear days have become rare. Anyway, free trade always benefits those taking part in it, otherwise they wouldn’t do it. The voluntary nature of buying and selling decisions ipso facto proves their beneficence and this is not magically altered by the presence of borders. Modern-day “managed trade” agreements are certainly deserving of critique in many ways, but most of today’s trade critics are frankly economic ignoramuses. Good economic analysis requires one to look beyond the superficial to things not immediately seen (a lesson taught by French economist Bastiat in the mid 19th century, apparently to little avail). It is not free trade that has impoverished certain communities; it is the fake fiat money system with its unfettered expansion of money and credit that is at the root of the problem. It is easier though to just point fingers at foreigners than to truly think matters through. Contrary to what many people seem to think, economics is not just easily explained in a few soundbites, which admittedly makes the defense of sound economic concepts a thankless and difficult task.

Photo credit: Stringer / Reuters

The IOUs have never been redeemed. And never will be. One of the amusements of the year ahead will be to see how Team Trump improves that deal!

But wait. This fake money system – not free trade – is the real problem. It may be a great “deal” for U.S. consumers. But it is a disaster for the U.S. Main Street economy.

More to come…

Image captions by PT

The above article originally appeared as “Trump Can’t Beat THIS Trade Deal” at the Diary of a Rogue Economist, written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.


Comments from Benjaminis: In case anyone is wondering why all these articles have been read by myself and shared here is to give myself a very clear picture of where we are in our global world as it relates to every factor. These factors include financial and financial repression. The Geopolitical and all of the social issues of humans around the world whether India or Venezuela or Britain or Syria or Iraq and soon on the radar screen Paris on the 15TH of January in 10 days when 60 Nations of the UN meet to see if they can pass a resolution concerning Israel and Palestine which if President Obama in his last deranged act will not VETO prior to January 20, 2017 , two weeks from tomorrow when the House of Representatives and the Senate declare the Electoral votes of November 8, 2016 as official.

All of these events and upcoming events including the Inauguration of the 45TH President of the United States of America , Donald J. Trump will take place. Then things really will get interesting. All of these matters effect the markets so I want to see into the future and anticipate all possibilities.

Tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST , we can get back to the FUN part as long as you are making money the actual trading.

Right after I did my last post and on the topic that I commented on, I came across this Mishtalk article concerning Mexico which just confirms the theme that I was explaining.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/05/mexi...rotests-ensue/

Snippet:
Mexico Hikes Gas 20 Percent: Mass Protests Ensue, One Dead, 600 Arrested, in Widespread Looting

05ThursdayJan 2017

Posted by MishMoments | January 5, 2017 6:15:18 | Economics

Last weekend the Mexican government hiked gasoline prices 20%. Today, all hell broke loose.

In response to gas hikes, looting began: 1 Dead, 600 Arrested in Mexico Gas Protests.

Anger over gasoline prices hikes fueled more protests and looting Thursday, and Mexican officials said the unrest had resulted in the death of a policeman, the ransacking of 300 stores and arrests of over 600 people.

The country’s business chambers said the combination of highway, port and terminal blockades and looting this week forced many stores and businesses to close and threatened supplies of basic goods and fuel.

Mexicans were enraged by the 20 percent fuel price hike announced over the weekend as part of a government deregulation of the energy sector. Protesters began blocking highways and gas stations and some people have broken into stores to carry off merchandise.

Authorities said one policeman was run over and killed and another was seriously injured when they tried to stop robberies at a gas station in Mexico City. Police in the capital said they had arrested 76 people for looting about 29 stores.

The change boosted the average price for a liter of premium gasoline to 17.79 pesos (about 90 cents). That makes 4 liters, or about a gallon, equal to nearly as much as Mexico’s just raised minimum wage for a day’s work — 80 pesos (about $4).

With blockades affecting everything from gas distribution terminals, seaports and highways to shopping centers and gas stations, the Communications and Transport Department announced it would cancel permits for any truckers who block roads.

In the Gulf coast city of Veracruz, 50 establishments including convenience stores, supermarkets and big-box outlets suffered looting, according to a preliminary count by the local chamber of commerce.

Store guards were overrun by crowds who carried off clothing, food, washing machines, televisions, DVD players and refrigerators.
President Enrique Pena Nieto said Wednesday that he would try to help groups hit hard by the increases.
Looting, Protest Images
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=349
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=359
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=341
The above images courtesy of CNN: Mexico: 20% gas price hike fuels looting, protests.

Presidential Statement
President Pena Nieto: “I understand the anger and irritation felt by the general public over the price increases. But if this decision had not been taken, the effects and consequences would have been far more painful.”


Mish Translation: “Mexico is broke. Our beloved peso collapsed along with oil revenue. As a consequence of declining revenues and increased spending, inflation is rampant. We had to hike prices and we may have to increase interest rates even more. My statement that we will help those hardest hit is of course a lie.”

Earlier today I reported Mexico Central Bank Intervenes to Prop Up Peso.

Mexico Needs New Plan
Mexico might wish to try honest money and a balanced budget.
Here is a proposal by my friend Hugo Salinas Price that makes sense: Hugo Salinas Price Asks Mexico for Silver Coin to Calm the National Tantrum.
Mexico did not heed the advice. And we have have seen the results.
Mexican oil won’t last forever. It’s time for a new plan.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-dollar-sinks

Snippet:

China Strengthens Yuan Fixing by Most Since 2005 as Dollar Sinks
Bloomberg News

January 5, 2017, 8:32 PM EST January 5, 2017, 8:59 PM EST
Chinas central bank strengthened its currency fixing by the most since a peg to the greenback was dismantled in July 2005, following a tumble in the dollar.

The Peoples Bank of China raised the reference rate by 0.92 percent to 6.8668 per dollar, following a 1 percent drop in a gauge of the greenbacks strength. The offshore yuan slumped 0.7 percent, the most since June last year, after the fixing, which was weaker than a prediction of 6.8447 given by Mizuho Bank Ltd. and 6.8456 given by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

This is a technical move in the dollar, and the PBOC took advantage, said Irene Cheung, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at ANZ.
The yuan traded in Hong Kong surged 2.5 percent in the last two days, the most in data going back to 2010, after interbank borrowing rates surged and Bloomberg News reported that policy makers are preparing contingency plans to support the exchange rate. This widened the offshore yuans premium to the onshore rate.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...U/v2/-1x-1.png
"The past few days have seen good opportunities for corporates to arbitrage the offshore-onshore gap and we are likely witnessing the unwinding of those arbitrage trades today, pushing the offshore currency weaker," said Fiona Lim, a senior currency strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. "The fixing is a clear signal from the PBOC that they do not favor speculation.

With assistance by Robin Ganguly, Justina Lee, and Tian Chen

5 Minute Chart USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

5 Minute Chart US 10 Year Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

5 Minute Chart Gold

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

5 Minute Chart US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Look at SMALL GAP !!! GAP was up tonight at 8 PM EST VS Down Yesterday at 8 PM EST !!!

The Wrap Up - Nightly

I do not have much left to say that has not already been said. Most of the information that I have shared here in the last two days relate to the longer term view and we read from many different analysts about the same main themes. The information should be referenced when it needs to be reviewed as things unfold during 2017. I will probably have a section on my company website placing different types of information in their own sections. Any suggestions would be welcomed and appreciated.

Now time for some sleep and get ready for tomorrow. I probably will be online by 6 AM EST.

Good Evening !!!


Benjaminis

<Конечно, линия времени неизвестна, однако мы можем видеть, что это собирается разворачиваться прямо перед нашей eyes.Knowing это не только позволяет нам планировать будущее это позволяет нам понять направление рынков, прежде чем большинство других, которые будут читать о это в своих газетах и смотрят на своих телевизоров. >
Benjaminis ,спасибо. Перед выходом NFP я надеюсь, что будет еще комментарии?

Hello benj...nice work you are doing here, i must say i find it hard to understand fundamentals must of the time,i am sure i do learn a lot from you..i have a question....is it possible to if it is risk on or risk off,just by checking the charts and not tracking the news or maybe you tracked the news but cant find anything to indicate that. Sorry my questions may come out as dumb.....am just trying to learn.

i have more questions,
1) Is risk of or risk on time independent,by this, i mean, if you look at the finviz weekly relative performance,you would see that the commodity currency have been strong all week long hence a risk on....however if you use the daily relative performance,it has been changing day to day session to session...yesterday money flowed into jpy seriously...(risk of), today its going into the dollars... so is possible to have different views on weekly and daily.
2) What time of the day is best to start tracking money flow.
3) Am new to indices,hence the question is DOW that you talked about DJIA, and is the name of the indices VIX.
Sorry,it seem like a lot of question,just a guy,trying to learn.

Good day All
Hope everyone is doing well.
Have just translated Wayfarer's comment.

"Of course, the time line is unknown, but we can see that this is going to unfold right before our eyes.Knowing it not only allows us to plan the future of this allows us to understand the direction of the market, before most of the others who read about it in their newspapers and watch on their televisions. >
Benjaminis, thank you. Before the release of NFP, I hope there will be more comments?"

benjamin i do like to be part of the traders you would train,thank you.

carbonado, hello! For a certificate : Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) we write DOW30 - CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)-we write VIX

" "
Thanks wayfarer, the dow30 yoou talked about,is it the one we use to measure money flow...

Hello benjaminis, this is my login D102754631001, PASSWORD 1291, this platform is allien to me.

Translation:

<Of course, the time line is unknown, but we can see that this is going to unfold right before our eyes.Knowing it not only allows us to plan the future of this allows us to understand the direction of the market, before most of the others who read about it in their newspapers and They look at their television. > Benjaminis, thank you. Before the release of NFP, I hope there will be more comments?

Good morning my friend.

At 5:34 AM EST , I am now up and online and I will start off by answering the questions posted since I went to bed.

What you mention about the Timeline and other related questions posed, I will answer shortly in the next few posts. Good Morning KeepCalmfx.


Benjaminis
<Of course, the time line is unknown, but we can see that this is going to unfold right before our eyes.Knowing it not only allows us to plan the future of this allows us to understand the direction of the market, before most of the others who read about it in their newspapers and They look at their television. > Benjaminis, thank you. Before the release of NFP, I hope there will be more comments?

Hello carbonado

Thank you for the compliments. First off , no question is stupid. If we do not ask questions we cannot learn. Sometimes I am asked a question that needs an answer and I myself might not have the correct answer at the moment so it allows me to look for an answer and by doing that then I also learn something myself.

We teach a total and comprehensive way of trading Forex so there is much more involved than just understanding fundamentals. Have a look at the 5 elements of success that is shared here.

(1) 20% is of course the Forex Trader.
(2) 20% is Risk Management in case the Professional or Retail Forex Trader makes the wrong trading decision.
(3) 20% is the EDGE that lets you trade with the markets and NOT AGAINST them because the MARKETS WIN EVERY TIME !!! (MONEY FLOW)
(4) 20% is the Technical Indicators that I see clearly that you are skilled in.
(5) 20% is the Fundamental News released every day for everyone to see at the same time whether they are real or FAKE NEWS !!!

Notice how the two most common ones used by all Forex traders are Technical Indicators which includes Supply and Demand and Support and Resistance and Pivot Points or whatever system that has been developed in that field is number FOUR and Fundamentals is ranked number FIVE.

I think that this is the clearest explanation so far. For myself trading Forex is a way of life and I have the desire and love for it because it keeps me involved in the world and what is happening.

So now you see from the above Fundamental News such as we are waiting for this morning at 8:30 AM EST while number (5) on the list is the answer in some ways as to timeline and Money Flow.

There is no way that any charts can predict anything and that is the main issue that I personally have with using just the charts to predict the future prices of the various Asset Classes. For example there was no chart anywhere in the world that told us in advance what China did in the last three days concerning the strengthening of the YUAN. That FUNDAMENTAL Fact and I repeat FACT because it is actual new news unlike the release of the NFP today which clearly is a number that surely moves markets however that is because the number which my gut feeling tells me will be 125,000 (HOWEVER THAT IS STILL A COMPLETE GUESS) It may be an educated guess however guess it is along with all the experts and so called experts having fun trying to give a number. That is what makes the number such a market mover because all it creates is a NEW PERCEPTION. That is not the same as a new fact. Once the spinning heads and excellent analysts have a chance to go into the numbers and realize what it really means you will see that many times what the original reaction is many times changes within hours and you see a short term reversal of the trend. Understanding this in advance is why many times, I make my best profits on Non Farm Payroll days.