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Best indicator for trend?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 3, 2006 11:35am Sep 3, 2006 11:35am
Can you post here please what is accord. you best trend indicator,
for daily, 4 hours.... and also inputs for every indicators? or the best is only drawn trend lines?
or combinations of both?
Thx
BJ
  • #2
  • Sep 3, 2006 3:30pm Sep 3, 2006 3:30pm
Quoting brainjt
Can you post here please what is accord. you best trend indicator,
for daily, 4 hours.... and also inputs for every indicators? or the best is only drawn trend lines?
or combinations of both?
Thx
The definition of an uptrend is a price pattern that makes higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend makes a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Any indictor that will tell you what the trend is has to be derived from price and is therefore a lagging indicator. Beat the crowd and look at price itself.

Always drink upstream of the herd.

Phil
  • #3
  • Sep 3, 2006 4:47pm Sep 3, 2006 4:47pm
slap a 1min chart on, and a 30SMA ( 34EMA maybe ), aim to short with the trend, just under this line during trend moves.


Find my thread, more in there, it calls it perfectly.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #4
  • Sep 3, 2006 4:57pm Sep 3, 2006 4:57pm
I believe one of the best indicators for recognize a trend is the avg directional movement index (adx), because it also show how powerful is the trend. It combined with a 13 and 5 EMA. Parabolic SAR also give a cleaner view to the future movement of the future of the trend.

I belive this indicators works well in anytime frame. Only depends which is your timeframe strategy.

pocoso.
  • #5
  • Sep 3, 2006 5:15pm Sep 3, 2006 5:15pm
ADX is notoriously slow at detecting reversals in trends.

SMAs are a moving window (example 30 bars) so they are also slow since any 1 bar is not imprortant than any of its neighbors.
  • #6
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:08pm Sep 3, 2006 7:08pm
Not if you find the SMA's that work they aren't, and use which side the price is on.

I use my SMA's in my system for S/R to make trades off, and even breakouts.


Zero Lag, everything else Lags, which is basically cheating. Makes it look good in back test unless you line up the price at the time, then doh!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #7
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:12pm Sep 3, 2006 7:12pm
Any clown can tell you when you are in a trend. A trader who has an edge can tell you when the trend has changed and SMAs are slow.

SMAs are not capable of reliably providing support and resistance. If you have some reliable testing that you have done to prove otherwise I'm sure we would all like to see it.
  • #8
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:17pm Sep 3, 2006 7:17pm
No, using SMA's I can tell you, exactly when a trend is changing direction

GBP 2hour up trend, 30min flat
EUR 2hour uptrend line being tested, 30 min down.

( not a good time, abit dead and not trendy really )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #9
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:22pm Sep 3, 2006 7:22pm
Phil, done loads of research on it, system is good I'm the weak link sadly.

Look for the Turveyd System in the discussions, got some screen shots there from 2 days last week.

the 24hour SMA line, is a very strong one for instance.


I also have a range chop system, and over extended from the 30sma ( 1 min chart ), which works ALOT to.

I HATE all over indicators, spend hours working and testing alot of the suckers, can't see any merits in them, so Keeping it Simple wins out.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #10
  • Sep 3, 2006 7:28pm Sep 3, 2006 7:28pm
Quoting Turveyd
Phil, done loads of research on it, system is good I'm the weak link sadly.

Look for the Turveyd System in the discussions, got some screen shots there from 2 days last week.

the 24hour SMA line, is a very strong one for instance.


I also have a range chop system, and over extended from the 30sma ( 1 min chart ), which works ALOT to.

I HATE all over indicators, spend hours working and testing alot of the suckers, can't see any merits in them, so Keeping it Simple wins out.
Yes, we're all familiar with your system. You have disrupted every thread to talk about it. I've yet to see any test results for your system or any proof that an SMA can act as support.
  • #11
  • Sep 4, 2006 9:26am Sep 4, 2006 9:26am

Philmcgrew, If you dont like any indicator. What do you use for trade?. Are you a fundamental analyst?

If you dont like any indicator I would like to know What you do for catch a trend.

Hope you reply.


POCOSO

  • #12
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:19am Sep 4, 2006 10:19am
Quoting pocoso

Philmcgrew, If you dont like any indicator. What do you use for trade?. Are you a fundamental analyst?


If you dont like any indicator I would like to know What you do for catch a trend.

Hope you reply.


POCOSO


Hi Pocoso,

If you only knew how much I dislike and ignore fundamental analysis

The definition of an uptrend is when price makes a series of higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is a serires of lower highs and lower lows.

My only point is that all indicators (except volume which we dont' have) are derrived from price so why don't you just look at price? Every indicator has some degree of lag before it can tell you what exists a couple inches above it (price itself).
  • #13
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:26am Sep 4, 2006 10:26am
if you rule out all lag and only look at price then you can only look at last bar. last tick actually. so trend would be , if last tick was up trend is up!
  • #14
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:34am Sep 4, 2006 10:34am
Quoting witchazel
if you rule out all lag and only look at price then you can only look at last bar. last tick actually. so trend would be , if last tick was up trend is up!
Humerous, but very untrue. Even a simple finite line can not be drawn without contiaining two or more data points. Previous highs and lows are used for reference. In order to know where you are you have to know where you've been. If you want to do more research on this concept google "relativity".
  • #15
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:36am Sep 4, 2006 10:36am
What hes saying is get an indicator that shows higher highs and higher lows.
  • #16
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:38am Sep 4, 2006 10:38am
I use THE PRICE..
google:
  • #17
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:39am Sep 4, 2006 10:39am
Quoting twinchell
What hes saying is get an indicator that shows higher highs and higher lows.
You need an idicator to see higher highs and higher lows? Eyes are not enough?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #18
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:40am Sep 4, 2006 10:40am
Quoting dof
You need an idicator to see higher highs and higher lows? Eyes are not enough?
Did you short the chart that says 'Humor'?
  • #19
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:42am Sep 4, 2006 10:42am
Quoting twinchell
Did you short the chart that says 'Humor'?
Yes, I've got lower lows on the humor chart for FF and I though it's a down trend... and 2 SMA crossed 10 SMA, and 5 WMA crossed 12 SMA and 50SMA changed the slope... so you tell me, is it a good short?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #20
  • Sep 4, 2006 10:48am Sep 4, 2006 10:48am
Quoting dof
Yes, I've got lower lows on the humor chart for FF and I though it's a down trend...
That was funny. Humor might be making a reversal. Now we need some fundamentals guy to explain how humor is affected by oil and gold. More importantly, can it cross over "boredom"?
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