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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,461
  • Dec 28, 2016 6:07pm Dec 28, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting The Fool
wish I had more time to delve into the Pharma stock opps. Some of them went crazy after Hillary went down - GALE popped $.20 to $3.50.... {image}
It's a total crap shoot on the "thin as a straw" pipeline underlyings. It requires a ton of research as to timing of trial results, FDA hearings, yada yada ... . I've played a few off and on ... . Still in a SRPT short lotto trade. I'm betting on its eventual implosion: Their trial was crap, they have yet to show efficaciousness of the therapy, insurance companies are balking at the price tag (in light of the failure to demonstrate efficaciousness), and it's only a matter of time before one of these kids dies during the so-called "confirmatory" trials ... . Threw a "few nickels" at it far out in time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,462
  • Dec 28, 2016 8:27pm Dec 28, 2016 8:27pm
OMG....What am I, a freakin pharmacologist?....isn't there a slick newsletter I can buy for $999/qtr that will just tell me what the hot pharma trades are?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,463
  • Dec 28, 2016 9:45pm Dec 28, 2016 9:45pm
me no like FF revamp
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,464
  • Dec 29, 2016 12:36pm Dec 29, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting The Fool
couple long gold trades today: Mar17/31 GLD $120 calendar calls @ 15c; long AUY Feb $3.5 calls for 5c
gold be doin it, AUY pushin up a bunch, near $3.00....5c Feb calls worth 12c, if I see 20-25c I will start taking some off....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,465
  • Dec 29, 2016 8:12pm Dec 29, 2016 8:12pm
SHORT euro via Jan FXE put fly, just $2 wide, around $98 which is ~parity, risking 6c to make 60c
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-12-29_1809FXE.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,466
  • Dec 29, 2016 9:40pm Dec 29, 2016 9:40pm
Quoting The Fool
OMG....What am I, a freakin pharmacologist?....isn't there a slick newsletter I can buy for $999/qtr that will just tell me what the hot pharma trades are?
There probs is one ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,467
  • Dec 29, 2016 11:06pm Dec 29, 2016 11:06pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
There probs is one ... . Lol.
dozens. Do you think the Trump rally will peter out & reverse in Jan?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,468
  • Dec 30, 2016 11:58am Dec 30, 2016 11:58am
Quoting The Fool
SHORT euro via Jan FXE put fly, just $2 wide, around $98 which is ~parity, risking 6c to make 60c
stepped in that one. I filled a Mar DIA put fly today......not sure if anyone is interested, so I may fade out unless I get some questions.

Last couple days of the year and we see some profit-taking, we'll see if that can carry forward into the early new year. We need to see good data keep coming in the US so the Fed heads will yak about inflation, dollar strength will help but that looks a little dicey in the st. Not sweating either way.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,469
  • Dec 30, 2016 2:48pm Dec 30, 2016 2:48pm
strong USD, inflationary trade rejiggering will be the boogerbear for 2017

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...=.5172516da75e
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,470
  • Dec 30, 2016 3:42pm Dec 30, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting The Fool
Last couple days of the year and we see some profit-taking, we'll see if that can carry forward into the early new year.
just a lil fade bet for next week, SPY Jan 6/11 $227 calendar calls for 17c, maybe the btfd will be back.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,471
  • Dec 31, 2016 5:02pm Dec 31, 2016 5:02pm
Hey happy new year fool! Really appreciate your attention to my questions of late. I've been playing around with the TOS platform a bit. Feels like my 11 year old must feel in my drivers seat. I know I'll have control of it one day but if I just fire into it right away I could cause some havoc bible style. Digging it though. Got to learn some basics on the platform and get familiar with the important math too. I'll get through that and check if you're still doing it here then. Mostly just wanted to wish you good fortune in 2017. Hope you got some girlish bubbly and some bubbly girls with you to ring it in.
  • #14,472
  • Dec 31, 2016 5:30pm Dec 31, 2016 5:30pm
cheers, goosebone - have a great 2017. If you want to know anything about how to use tos, just ask here. I myself only use a small part of what it can do but it's enough. I will be checking in now and then but I do need to move on from the forum habit as I get little out of it anymore and I also have a very full plate to work on in the coming year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,473
  • Jan 1, 2017 1:53pm Jan 1, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
strong USD, inflationary trade rejiggering will be the boogerbear for 2017
well, yes in the USA Fool, but the eurozone elections will be da bomb. Starting with the Dutch @ the Ides of March, The French April-May, then the German in the Fall....

By now, nobody can ignore what is going on with anti-immigrant sentiment throughout the West. The pendulum swing from left to right will continue and, whether you like it or not, you have to plan for the market reactions. The prospect of a Eurozone breakup is real and short equity positions could pay a fortune, if well placed and timed right. Well yes, there's the rub.

At any rate, I am pricing cheap tickets for that ride in 2017.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,474
  • Jan 3, 2017 9:04am Jan 3, 2017 9:04am
UVXY another rev split takes place 1/12 - 1:5
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,475
  • Jan 3, 2017 12:29pm Jan 3, 2017 12:29pm
HYG Jan06 $87 long calls remain from a cheap calendar now, could make it itm on that slow-moving shit, but fml look at the bid/ask spreads on the HYG weeklies - all the volume is on the monthlies on HYG - live & learn.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,476
  • Jan 3, 2017 1:57pm Jan 3, 2017 1:57pm
Quoting The Fool
UVXY another rev split takes place 1/12 - 1:5
Would it make sense to keep buying long terms puts as this ETF always seems to head towards 0?
  • #14,477
  • Jan 3, 2017 3:18pm Jan 3, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting pip-boss
Would it make sense to keep buying long terms puts as this ETF always seems to head towards 0?
maybe, but it's tricky. After the 1:5 rev split UVXY will trade at let's say $35. So you'd be able to buy atm puts a couple months out for lets say 15% of the strike maybe 20%, so ~ $500-$700/contract....and they immediately start time-decaying and losing value because of declining iv....but if UVXY will move enough in your time window, it might work out well. Why don't you try it and let me know how it works out?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,478
  • Jan 3, 2017 11:18pm Jan 3, 2017 11:18pm
Quoting The Fool
UVXY another rev split takes place 1/12 - 1:5
I was watching for that ... . I have plans ... . Evil plans ... post-split.

I seem to have taken a seat on the VIX/VIX derivative bus and just can't seem to get off ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,479
  • Jan 3, 2017 11:26pm Jan 3, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I was watching for that ... . I have plans ... . Evil plans ... post-split.
do tell....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,480
  • Edited 11:56pm Jan 3, 2017 11:42pm | Edited 11:56pm
in the week right after the last split, UVXY ranged down $32.x to $27.x - I remember saying it might not make 2 months before the next split, well it made 5 months, lol.

Check out what the Jan $30 put did since the last split: when it was first available it was at or near the money, maybe itm a little, and it sold for $12.x.....it is worth $22.x today. The put has gained $10 in value but has gone $23 itm....would you exercise?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-01-03_2134uvxy.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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