Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Hello Everyone !!! I just checked the Forex Factory Calendar and ALL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD are CLOSED on Monday so tomorrow is not a Forex Trading day however you can still post here anytime. I am now off for the rest of today and will return in about 12 hours from now in the morning in cold Canada.

To all my Asian Fellow Forex Traders please join in with us and register and please post and subscribe to our Thread. Happy New Year which I think is towards the end of January 2017;

Benjaminis

Diamonds are a Ladies BEST Friend and be safe. You are a gentleman with a good sense of humor. I will do the Forex Trade as soon as the platform is active.


Benjaminis

HEADS UP !!! FROM WWW.JSMINEST.COM

Posted December 31st, 2016 at 5:31 PM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...001_thumb2.jpg
While I had not planned on writing until next week, current events warrant commentary. This past week has been an absolute embarrassment for the U.S. The actions taken by Mr. Obama are unprecedented for any outgoing president. Thousands of pages of executive orders, land grabs, multiple accusations against Russia and of course throwing Russian diplomats out and the placing of new sanctions.


It is crystal clear Obama is trying his best to sabotage Mr. Trump’s presidency, whether he starts World War III in the process is the obvious danger. The next three weeks may be the most dangerous three weeks in our planet’s history as the “launch codes” are in the hands of someone obviously not thinking correctly. Most all of the hurdles and traps being laid by Obama can be corrected, altered or abolished. I would imagine the easiest way to do this would be to investigate and prove that Obama is not a natural born citizen and thus never eligible to sit in the office of U.S. President. If this avenue is pursued (I truly hope it will be), anything signed by Obama’s pen would then be null and void. The ramifications could be far reaching and include all sorts of appointments including federal judges.


The one draconian act which cannot be reversed as I see it is the UN vote recognizing Palestinian land. The U.S. did not veto the vote which every previous president has done. I do not see a remedy for this as the vote was 14-0 with the U.S. abstaining and not using our veto power. This vote truly looks like it was brokered by Mr. Obama, one of his few well thought out dangerous acts. The situation with Israel and the Middle East will now be altered permanently unless I am missing something?


The question of whether Mr. Trump is a Trojan horse or not should be answered almost immediately after the inauguration. I personally believe (and truly hope) Mr. Trump is real and does care about the United States as a nation. One area I am skeptical of is Congress. It is not clear to me whether or not both houses will do what the American people put them in office to do. It is very possible the republicans try to obstruct Mr. Trump’s nationalist/populist policy with their own bought and paid for globalist policy. It is 100% clear to me the takedown of the U.S. (from within) has been the plan for many years. I do not believe Mr. Trump was any part of “the plan” but we will soon find out.


We may even find out on January 6th as Congress counts the electoral votes. They do have a Constitutional avenue to still rebuff the vote and make their own choice. I do not believe this will be done as riots will follow with Congressman hanging from lampposts across the nation. Rather, I do believe it’s a good possibility the republican Congress will be obstructionist in subtle if not outward ways.


Folks, do not let your guard down. The next three weeks are certainly scary, any number of false flags could be unleashed. At least the previous efforts to spread bogus news have not worked as the evidence has not existed and the American people (for the most part) have seen through it. These are unprecedented times in every fashion, the “normal” we as Americans used to know will unfortunately never return during our lifetimes. Stay focused, whether you know it or not yet, we are at war!


Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome [email protected]

http://www.jsmineset.com/

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/01/chin...ital-controls/


China Tightens Forex Capital Controls

01SundayJan 2017

Posted by MishMoments | January 1, 2017 3:31:33 | Economics

≈ 6 Comments

At the start of every year, many citizens of China opt to take out their entire yearly allotment of $50,000 in foreign currency. The rest of the year, it’s a struggle to defeat capital controls.
Authorities complain of ‘leaks’ in system and demand reporting of large deals.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=311
Please consider China Tightens Control of Personal Forex Purchases.

China has tightened checks on citizens exchanging foreign currency in anticipation of renewed downward pressure on the renminbi in the new year.
Banks have been asked to improve standards for verifying customers’ identities and to report “large or questionable transactions”, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) said in a public statement at the weekend.
“There have been leaks in China’s system of personal foreign exchange purchases,” the statement said, giving as an example the way individuals and companies avoid capital controls on overseas investments by disguising their transactions as goods purchases.
China’s policymakers have clamped down on capital flows leaving the country in recent weeks, imposing fresh restrictions on outbound corporate acquisitions and investments. European companies have reported difficulties in remitting dividends to stockholders abroad. The restrictions are partly an attempt to keep the renminbi from steep falls in the future after it depreciated almost 6 per cent against the dollar in 2016.
“The first day of the new year can be crazy — it’s always a big test for the renminbi,” said Jonas Short, head of research at NSBO China, an investment bank. “People who are anticipating further renminbi depreciation will take out their quota early in the year, and some will want to take out the full amount as soon as they can.”
The central bank is trying to ensure the renminbi’s value stays above the red line of Rmb7 per dollar, a symbolic number for the country’s policymakers. The renminbi was trading at Rmb6.94 to the dollar at the weekend.
On Thursday night the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, scolded media outlets for being irresponsible in reporting the exchange rate crossing Rmb7 to the dollar, after a momentary glitch in the Bloomberg currency quote system showed the renminbi weakening beyond that point during overnight trading.

It’s ridiculous that people actually believed the yuan would replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The yuan does not float, China’s bond market is not big enough, and China has to resort to capital controls.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock


China Tightens Forex Capital Controls

01SundayJan 2017

Posted by MishMoments | January 1, 2017 3:31:33 | Economics

≈ 6 Comments

At the start of every year, many citizens of China opt to take out their entire yearly allotment of $50,000 in foreign currency. The rest of the year, it’s a struggle to defeat capital controls.
Authorities complain of ‘leaks’ in system and demand reporting of large deals.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=311
Please consider China Tightens Control of Personal Forex Purchases.

China has tightened checks on citizens exchanging foreign currency in anticipation of renewed downward pressure on the renminbi in the new year.
Banks have been asked to improve standards for verifying customers’ identities and to report “large or questionable transactions”, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) said in a public statement at the weekend.
“There have been leaks in China’s system of personal foreign exchange purchases,” the statement said, giving as an example the way individuals and companies avoid capital controls on overseas investments by disguising their transactions as goods purchases.
China’s policymakers have clamped down on capital flows leaving the country in recent weeks, imposing fresh restrictions on outbound corporate acquisitions and investments. European companies have reported difficulties in remitting dividends to stockholders abroad. The restrictions are partly an attempt to keep the renminbi from steep falls in the future after it depreciated almost 6 per cent against the dollar in 2016.
“The first day of the new year can be crazy — it’s always a big test for the renminbi,” said Jonas Short, head of research at NSBO China, an investment bank. “People who are anticipating further renminbi depreciation will take out their quota early in the year, and some will want to take out the full amount as soon as they can.”
The central bank is trying to ensure the renminbi’s value stays above the red line of Rmb7 per dollar, a symbolic number for the country’s policymakers. The renminbi was trading at Rmb6.94 to the dollar at the weekend.
On Thursday night the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, scolded media outlets for being irresponsible in reporting the exchange rate crossing Rmb7 to the dollar, after a momentary glitch in the Bloomberg currency quote system showed the renminbi weakening beyond that point during overnight trading.

It’s ridiculous that people actually believed the yuan would replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The yuan does not float, China’s bond market is not big enough, and China has to resort to capital controls.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock

ANOTHER HEADS UP - IMPORTANT - NON FOREX SOURCE

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...o/#more-139792


Global Disorder Forecast
We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy. We focus on what we want to do and can do, neglecting the plans and skills of others. Both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. We are therefore prone to an illusion of control. We focus on what we know and neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEA...NWI0OTk3Zg.jpg


The level of global disorder hasnt been this high since the 1930s. There are dozens of potential flash points capable of producing a cascading crisis which could blow up the world. The highly touted establishment mantra of globalization has produced an interconnected web of trillions in global debt, with one quadrillion dollars of indecipherable derivatives layered on top, all dependent upon the sustenance of insolvent mega-banks and bankrupt nation states. The only thing keeping this global Ponzi scheme alive is the unfounded belief in the brilliance of central bankers and corrupt politicians.

The detonator for these interwoven financial weapons of mass destruction is rising global interest rates. The global financial system will be blown sky high by a sustained high volume sovereign bond selloff. The bond market is always the canary in the coal mine. Bonds will sell-off before stocks and real estate. Bond markets have begun to sell-off in a relatively orderly manner over the last three months, with long term Treasuries falling 13%. Bill Gross recently described the growing risk:

Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.


Will that day happen in 2017? No one knows for sure, but the probability is much higher than biased experts believe. The substantial concentration of cognitive biases clouding the judgement of the supposed wise men ruling the world has blinded them to the tragic consequences of what happens when the mother of all bubbles explodes like a supernova.


The complacency of those in charge and the trusting masses will eventually be dealt a death blow when the high frequency trading computers run amuck and wipe out trillions of faux paper wealth in a matter of minutes. The powers that be will declare no one could have seen it coming, when in actuality anyone with a basic understanding of math could have seen it coming from a mile away. Most have chosen to remain blind to reality, because dealing with it is too painful to consider.


We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Lets get to a few prognostications regarding global events in 2017:

1. Obama, in a despicable act of trying to fence Trump in, has introduced further sanctions against Russia and Putin based upon no solid evidence other than the opinions of the same people who were sure there were WMD in Iraq. The MSM and the neo-con faction of his party are all on Obamas side. I expect Trump to override Obamas childish display of antagonism, while showing the neo-cons there is a new sheriff in town, by developing a working relationship with Putin and lowering the tensions between the two countries.
2. Trump and Putin will come to an agreement regarding keeping Assad in power in Syria while turning both nations attention to obliterating ISIS and the so called moderate Al Qaeda terrorists in the Middle East. General Mattis and Trumps team of rational thinkers will develop a feasible plan to destroy ISIS once and for all. Safe zones will jointly be created in Syria and Iraq by the U.S. and Russia to stem the tide of refugees pouring into the EU and U.S.
3. The U.S. dependency on Saudi oil will continue to decrease, further reducing their influence on U.S. policy in the Middle East. Saudi failure in Syria, Yemen and keeping Iran contained will lead to further discontent in the kingdom. Financial woes, declining oil output and religious tensions will fray the fabric of their insular society and lead to a religious uprising and civil war.
4. Turkey has been pushed into the Russian sphere of influence by U.S. meddling. The country is falling apart. A civil war on par with the Syrian conflict is likely to breakout. Russia would likely support the dictator Erdogan against rebel forces supported by NATO. Religious and sectarian violence will tear the country apart and create further tensions between Russia and the U.S.
5. Israel will pre-emptively take action either covertly or overtly to damage the Iranian nuclear program without informing the U.S. of its actions in advance. This will be supported by the neo-con factions in the U.S. government, but will strain relations between Netanyahu and Trump.
6. The crackpot efforts at demonetization by Modi in India will destroy the Indian economy and cause societal upheaval among his 1.25 billion mostly poor citizens. With the eighth largest economy on the planet imploding, the economic reverberations across Southeast Asia will be enormous, possibly being the trigger for the next step down in this ongoing global recession. Indias weakness could spur their enemy Pakistan to take aggressive border actions which could lead to military conflict.
7. With the fourth largest economy in the world in near permanent recession for the last twenty years, Japans debt to GDP ratio of 230% portends financial collapse. In the midst of a demographic implosion, with negative interest rates, and a central bank buying all the newly issued debt and billions in stocks, Japan is a bug seeking a windshield. When this Ponzi economy crashes, the worldwide impact will be significant. If Japan doesnt trigger the global eruption, it will be a major contributor as the detonation spreads around the world.
8. China continues to steadily devalue the yuan against the USD and has eliminated all the gains since 2010. At the same time they have reduced their foreign reserves by over 20% since mid-2014. Chinas third largest economy in the world is slowing rapidly as more bad debt builds up in their system. They have a real estate bubble that makes the U.S. bubble seem like a pimple on the ass of a fly. A trade war initiated by Donald Trump would be the pin bursting the Chinese debt bubble. The situation could intensify into a bond selloff and panic. If derivative positions of over-leveraged or poorly-hedged globally systemic banks begin to unravel, cascading losses could lead to a vicious cycle and a tragic outcome.
9. Potential military conflict between China and Japan/U.S. over the islands in the South China Sea ramps up by the day. No one wants a war, but all it would take is a careless stupid act by a low level military officer to create a crisis. China is already bent out of shape by Trump acknowledging the existence of Taiwan. China is still essentially a dictatorship. The country is racked by corruption. An economic collapse could be met with distracting the public through a military adventure against Taiwan. These scenarios are unlikely in 2017, but not out of the question.
10. The most likely and potentially most dire event which could affect the world in 2017 is the disintegration of the EU. Greece is still a basket case. Italy is on the brink. The EU area economy barely registers positive after years of negative interest rates and debt issuance. Unemployment rates, excluding Germany, range between 10% and 25%. Brexit and Trumps victory portend a further shift to the right in the EU. The right wing party will win the French presidency. Merkel will be defeated in the upcoming elections. France and Italy are likely to have a referendum on leaving the EU. The departure of either will end the failed experiment. The insolvent Italian, French and German banks, specifically Deutsche Bank, will collapse in an EU disintegration scenario.
11. The influx of Muslims into Europe is destroying their culture and leading to violence, terrorism, bloodshed, and now retribution. The left wingers have made a dreadful mistake in allowing hordes of Muslims to invade their countries. Their already fraying social welfare states are now completely bankrupt and citizens are afraid to go into the streets for fear of being attacked by members of the religion of peace. With the right gaining power in France, Germany and Italy, the blowback against Muslims will be violent and bloody. European cities will be rocked with violence throughout 2017.

Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com...ger-effect.jpg

I think it is pretty obvious my pessimism bias may have skewed my predictions for 2017. Ive been pessimistic for the last eight years and the stock market is up 200%. I try to assess the world from a logical fact based frame of mind, but for the last eight years the world has been kept afloat by a combination of debt, delusions and denial.


The Deep State propaganda machine has convinced the masses we are living in normal times, despite the fact the Fed printed $3.5 trillion out of thin air and handed it to the criminal Wall Street banks, interest rates have been kept at or near zero for eight years, revelations from Snowden that we truly live in a surveillance state far exceeding Orwells dystopian vision, the national debt doubling to $20 trillion, proof that all financial markets are rigged, undeclared wars being waged across the globe, and a reality TV star defeating a criminal to be president of the United States. Sounds pretty normal to me.


My confidence level in my predictions is quite low. But, if one or two of the low probability events comes to fruition, the financial and/or human devastation will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. I dont have an agenda in putting forth these predictions. Im not selling anything or hawking stocks, bonds, or gold. I dont tout myself as an expert like the over-confident, arrogant pricks on CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, or FOX. Im just trying to understand what is happening in this crazy universe. We live in an uncertain world. I believe an unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is the cornerstone of rationality and reason. Not acknowledging the role of luck or chance in the course of human events is setting you up for a fall.


Our countries, central banks, financial complex, military industrial complex, sick care complex, global mega-corporations, and government bureaucracies are ruled by men whose hubris, arrogance, greed and hunger for power has warped our world, producing unfathomable ill-gotten profits for the financial class who can abuse justice with impunity while the average man is bullied, pillaged and abused with disregard.

These well dressed, highly educated, sophisticated, soulless barbarians hide their evil deeds behind the trappings of culture, but they are revealed by their grotesque schemes, murderous policies, and war profits soaked in blood. When they lose control of this global Ponzi scheme, I hope they pay the ultimate price for their traitorous deeds. Will it happen in 2017? I dont know. But it will happen before this Fourth Turning climaxes.

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankinds willingness to use it. Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-m...-getting-time/

One of life’s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you’d like them to.
That’s where the sayings “Being too early is the same as being wrong” and “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” come from.
A current case in point is gold. After the metal’s decade-long bull market, a correction was inevitable. But when it finally came, rather than being short and cathartic it was long and grinding, stretching from 2012 through 2015 and causing many who got back in prematurely to eventually walk away in disgust.
Then, after a nice pop in the first half of 2016, came the current long, slow-mo correction that’s fraying the nerves of remaining gold-bugs.
This latest correction may not be over, but — based on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) – the bottom is getting closer. For previous posts on this subject, see here and here.
The COT gives a snapshot of what the big players in the “paper gold” market are up to. On the following chart the gray bars represent long positions held by speculators such as hedge funds, and the red bars denote net short positions held by “commercial” players like fabricators and big banks. The speculators are usually wrong at major turning points, so when they’re extremely long, gold usually falls and vice versa. The commercials tend to take the other side of speculators’ bets, and so are generally right at the big turns.
At the beginning of 2016, the speculators were hyper-pessimistic, as represented by a net long position of more or less zero. Gold then rose for six straight months. By July the speculators were overexcited – and overextended — setting the stage for the correction that’s been grinding along ever since.
http://i0.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...n-16.jpg?w=600
Now the two positions – speculator net longs and commercial net shorts – are once again converging. They’ve yet to meet in the middle, but another couple of months on the current trajectory and they will. So the stage being is set for another positive stretch in gold/silver prices, and by implication precious metals mining stocks.
For a sense of what that means for the miners, the price chart of GDX, a major gold miner ETF, is instructive. After getting absolutely crushed during the last four months of the previously-mentioned multi-year bear market, it took off in January of 2016, rising by about 150% in six months. Since then it has given back about half its gains.
http://i0.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...n-16.jpg?w=600
Assuming that 2015’s plunge was the result of a ridiculously long bear market causing most investors to capitulate — something unlikely to happen in the current, milder correction — then another month or two of gold price weakness might send mining stocks like GDX lower, but probably not all the way back their January ’16 bottom. So the entry point this time around is somewhere between today’s price and the prior year’s low. Let’s call $17 a reasonable target.
From there, the rest of the year – and maybe the rest of the decade – should be fun.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2016/1...-patterns.html

How to Break Negative Trading Patterns
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oUN4E_n5c...Reflecting.jpg
Many traders will observe a trading psychology problem, such as undersizing positions or overtrading, and will then lay out a goal for the next day to not make the same mistake. If you fast forward several months, you commonly find that they're still making those mistakes, still setting those goals. What's going wrong?

Noticing a problem is necessary to solving it, but not sufficient. We need to address the factors that are causing and/or triggering the problem. That requires real reflection. Very often, when we experience a psychological challenge in trading, there is a problematic situation that brings an emotional response, which in turn triggers a poor trading behavior. So, for instance, we might have a situation in which we exit a trade only to see it move further in our intended direction. That situation can trigger feelings of frustration and internal dialogue of self-criticism, which then trigger taking a marginal trade to make up for the initial situation. The problem is not just taking the marginal trade; the problem lies with the entire sequence.

When we chart the situations, thoughts, and emotions leading to episodes of poor trading, we become increasingly aware of our own patterns. Very often, it's a handful of triggering situations that lead us to make our behavioral mistakes in markets. Once we clearly recognize those situations, we become sensitive to them in real time and can catch them before they have their triggering effect. Psychology journals can be remarkably effective tools for building this awareness, as we jot down situations in one column; our thoughts and feelings in the next column; and the poor trading practices triggered by those thoughts and feelings in a third column. By becoming better and better at observing our patterns, we position ourselves to add a fourth column in real time, which is how we can channel our thoughts and feelings constructively.

Goal setting is excellent, but cannot take the place of understanding why problems are occurring in the first place. Many, many trading problems are situation- and state-dependent. They occur in particular contexts. If we can master those situations and mentally rehearse constructive ways of dealing with them, we can address much of our worst trading before actually placing any orders.

Hi Benjamin, I agree with Mrmkg01, thank you for a very good explanation of your thought process and methology.

"These posts today hopefully will make it easier to learn. We all can learn including myself. One of my sayings is "When You Think That You Know Everything , Then You Know Nothing" I learn everyday and I make changes if facts warrant that. I observe and always want to understand. I want everyone to do good so now it is up to you to program yourself and move away from the way that the masses think which is usually wrong. Benjaminis[/quote]

Thank you Benjamin for the effort you put into scaning the articles and post the ones you think is the most important. There is alot of new "jargon" to understand and by suming up part of the article it most definetely makes it easier to understand and to learn!

Very interesting article, it makes you think.

Hi Benjamin

Going over RISK ON/ RISK OFF and the relationship of USDJPY (Early posts of this forum) , can it be a suggested forecast that as the USDJPY is currently strong long and the money flow suggests a RISK OFF for the DOW and therefore shorts as an expectation?

Please advise

mrmkg01

Good Morning

When there is Risk Off and markets sell off it is easy to see. When that happens as it affects USD/JPY in the past Money Flow usually goes to where Forex Traders and by Forex Traders , it is the ones that manage the largest funds that move the markets. Never assume on a day to day basis exact movements as there can be factors that very few know about. Let the markets tell you what will happen. I hope this is clear. If not please post a follow up question. Look at daily charts for US 30 and USD/JPY and if you like create a chart that shows both of them on the same chart. That will make it easier to see and understand.

Daily Charts from Finviz on US 30
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=d1

Daily Charts from Finviz on USD/JPY
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=USDJPY

There might well be changing patterns starting this year as the Financial Repression that created this uncertain situation will change drastically and perhaps the large funds will look to other Asset Classes for safety.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ting-the-dots/


Trying to understand forecasting will be critical as we move forward. The HUGE turning point appears to be 2018 and that is most likely when things will start to come unglued. How do I even make such a statement? This is not a claim that I make based upon some gut feeling. I arrive at this statement not by looking at some domestic fundamental or speculation on what Trump might do or not. It is not based upon my contacts behind the curtain. This is simply looking at Socrates and nothing else.

So how do I arrive at that statement? It is the process of understanding that everything is connected. A share market in any country will rise if the currency declines to maintain its international value PROVIDED there is still a fundamental level of confidence in the country. If there was an invasion by another country, then no the currency and the share market would collapse because there would be a risk that the nation does not survive and thus there would be no rule of law to support asset values. Hence, we must look beyond the simple chart pattern on an isolated market to the external factors as well to determine the outcome. NO MARKET can be forecast accurately in isolation. Those who simply look at a single market can be correct in the same manner as a broken close is correct twice a day for one second. So we must look at a given market within its sector and then filter it through the lens of international currency.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...zaAccord-1.jpg
I have argued against the conspiracy theorists who claim gold is not up because it has been manipulated by the bankers. I have fought against the bank “real” manipulations and warned clients when they are in action. But the bankers are not capable of manipulating a market counter trend – nobody is. Japan tried to support the share market after 1989 and failed. We have had 8 years of quantitative easing by Mario Draghi without any success. Not even a central bank can manipulate the economy no less a single market. The entire Plaza Accord was the gathering of 5 countries to try to manipulate the dollar lower for trade. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank could not pull that off. Why listen to such nonsense about gold is manipulated to prevent a rally? These types of nonsense PREVENT you from understanding how the world really works.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...85-600x425.jpg
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....mm-242x300.jpgWhen I warned the White House back in 1985 that trying to manipulate the dollar lower creating the G5 would increase the volatility and lead to a crash in 2 years (1987), the White House responded and said they disagreed that volatility would increase.
Of course, when the 1987 Crash hit, the Brady Commission was forced to request my work. My greatest accomplishment was to prevent them from taking crazy sanctions against the market players when the real cause was the G5.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....87-300x214.jpgI was advising under contract the equivalent of about 50% of the value of the US National Debt at that time. The Japanese to ease trade restrictions, had been buying US debt and owned bout 33% of the US national debt at that time. I warned the Treasury that to lower the value of the dollar by 40% as the Plaza Accord said that was their goal, this would set off a crash and higher volatility because foreign investors will be forced to sell and exit the dollar. Yes, the value of exports would look good to foreign consumers, but US assets would also look like a sell. The capital flows went crazy causing the 1987 Crash. Advising around the world forced me to see everything from everyone’s perspective. It is that connection that is the key.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ace-Time-R.jpgCapital will move to the most advantageous location globally because we are all connected. Everything has an international value. We compare things in terms of value based upon our own currency and local markets. Currency is a MENTAL language. If you are American, you may go to Rome and the prices you will convert in your head to dollars just as a European will do the same traveling to the States. Capital will always move to the best spot globally for capital will act in its own self-interest.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...er-600x427.jpg
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....eithneir-R.jpgOn May 28th, 1997, again I wrote to then Robert Rubin who was Secretary of the Treasury. Rubin was doing the same thing that the Plaza Accord did in 1985 and trying to talk the dollar down criticizing the Japanese again all for trade. Our models were warning of another crash and indeed it hit within just a few weeks of my letter and became known as the Asian Currency Crisis. The Asian Currency crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis.
It was Tim Geithner who responded in just 4 days.Our model has been well known behind the curtain for decades. When the Asian Currency Crisis hit, I was invited to China to meet with the central bank.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....ed-300x240.jpg
By monitoring the world, what emerges is the overall trend. Trump won not by some isolated fluke. We put that forecast out years in advance and it did not matter the flip-flopping polls or how much money Hillary spent. Our computer saw the trend forming decades in advance. The Catalonia voted in July 2016 to separate from Spain followed by BREXIT was showing you the global trend. Once you understand that NOTHING takes place in isolation, you can see the trend coming before it arrives.

Our forecast that gold would peak in 2011, the US share market would rally to new highs made back in 2011 that Barron’s thought was nuts, and that the euro would collapse, were all connected. If one unfolded, the other HAD to follow. Once you see that the world capital flows dictate the outcome of everything, then investing and trading becomes a lot easier. Gold could NOT have continued higher if the dollar was shifting and the capital flows were pointing back to equity. Plain and simple. Everything else is just an excuse.

So why do I try to teach people? Because I can say buy or sell. Most people will not do so unless they agree and/or have confidence in that conclusion. The way to invest securely demands you have confidence in you action. But there is something more at stake here. We are looking at the collapse in government structures – the fall of Socialism. This is simply unsustainable from an economic viewpoint. You can make $1 billion, but it will do no good if you live in a totalitarian state.

The move to electronic currency and to eliminate cash is all because government is collapsing. They are desperate for money to retain power. This is now an outright war – them against us. This is far more dangerous than people suspect.

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Early this morning just before going to sleep, I read the extremely knowledgeable article posted here by Martin Armstrong. I immediately decided that I would share it here with everyone. I am asking everyone here that is trading a FXCM UK demo account to read the entire article and post in your own words a brief summary of what you understand. The reason for my request is the importance and knowledge that Martin shares.

It does not mean that he will be proven 100% right however at the very least if things change and they surely will since there are new factors that will occur on a regular basis over the next 12 months.

By later today the markets will start to have new information and the banks around the World will open.

Please bring me up to date where you are in your trading and anything else that you need to discuss.

I might not post as much as normal as I have other matters to attend to however , I will reply to all your questions and comments before the day is over.


Benjaminis

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...o/#more-139792

Snippet:
Global Disorder Forecast
“We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy. We focus on what we want to do and can do, neglecting the plans and skills of others. Both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. We are therefore prone to an illusion of control. We focus on what we know and neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEA...NWI0OTk3Zg.jpg
The level of global disorder hasn’t been this high since the 1930s. There are dozens of potential flash points capable of producing a cascading crisis which could blow up the world. The highly touted establishment mantra of globalization has produced an interconnected web of trillions in global debt, with one quadrillion dollars of indecipherable derivatives layered on top, all dependent upon the sustenance of insolvent mega-banks and bankrupt nation states. The only thing keeping this global Ponzi scheme alive is the unfounded belief in the brilliance of central bankers and corrupt politicians.
The detonator for these interwoven financial weapons of mass destruction is rising global interest rates. The global financial system will be blown sky high by a sustained high volume sovereign bond selloff. The bond market is always the canary in the coal mine. Bonds will sell-off before stocks and real estate. Bond markets have begun to sell-off in a relatively orderly manner over the last three months, with long term Treasuries falling 13%. Bill Gross recently described the growing risk:
“Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.”
Will that day happen in 2017? No one knows for sure, but the probability is much higher than biased “experts” believe. The substantial concentration of cognitive biases clouding the judgement of the supposed wise men ruling the world has blinded them to the tragic consequences of what happens when the mother of all bubbles explodes like a supernova.
The complacency of those in charge and the trusting masses will eventually be dealt a death blow when the high frequency trading computers run amuck and wipe out trillions of faux paper wealth in a matter of minutes. The powers that be will declare no one could have seen it coming, when in actuality anyone with a basic understanding of math could have seen it coming from a mile away. Most have chosen to remain blind to reality, because dealing with it is too painful to consider.
“We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Let’s get to a few prognostications regarding global events in 2017:

1. Obama, in a despicable act of trying to fence Trump in, has introduced further sanctions against Russia and Putin based upon no solid evidence other than the opinions of the same people who were sure there were WMD in Iraq. The MSM and the neo-con faction of his party are all on Obama’s side. I expect Trump to override Obama’s childish display of antagonism, while showing the neo-cons there is a new sheriff in town, by developing a working relationship with Putin and lowering the tensions between the two countries.
2. Trump and Putin will come to an agreement regarding keeping Assad in power in Syria while turning both nations’ attention to obliterating ISIS and the so called “moderate” Al Qaeda terrorists in the Middle East. General Mattis and Trump’s team of rational thinkers will develop a feasible plan to destroy ISIS once and for all. Safe zones will jointly be created in Syria and Iraq by the U.S. and Russia to stem the tide of refugees pouring into the EU and U.S.
3. The U.S. dependency on Saudi oil will continue to decrease, further reducing their influence on U.S. policy in the Middle East. Saudi failure in Syria, Yemen and keeping Iran contained will lead to further discontent in the kingdom. Financial woes, declining oil output and religious tensions will fray the fabric of their insular society and lead to a religious uprising and civil war.
4. Turkey has been pushed into the Russian sphere of influence by U.S. meddling. The country is falling apart. A civil war on par with the Syrian conflict is likely to breakout. Russia would likely support the dictator Erdogan against rebel forces supported by NATO. Religious and sectarian violence will tear the country apart and create further tensions between Russia and the U.S.
5. Israel will pre-emptively take action either covertly or overtly to damage the Iranian nuclear program without informing the U.S. of its actions in advance. This will be supported by the neo-con factions in the U.S. government, but will strain relations between Netanyahu and Trump.
6. The crackpot efforts at demonetization by Modi in India will destroy the Indian economy and cause societal upheaval among his 1.25 billion mostly poor citizens. With the eighth largest economy on the planet imploding, the economic reverberations across Southeast Asia will be enormous, possibly being the trigger for the next step down in this ongoing global recession. India’s weakness could spur their enemy Pakistan to take aggressive border actions which could lead to military conflict.
7. With the fourth largest economy in the world in near permanent recession for the last twenty years, Japan’s debt to GDP ratio of 230% portends financial collapse. In the midst of a demographic implosion, with negative interest rates, and a central bank buying all the newly issued debt and billions in stocks, Japan is a bug seeking a windshield. When this Ponzi economy crashes, the worldwide impact will be significant. If Japan doesn’t trigger the global eruption, it will be a major contributor as the detonation spreads around the world.
8. China continues to steadily devalue the yuan against the USD and has eliminated all the gains since 2010. At the same time they have reduced their foreign reserves by over 20% since mid-2014. China’s third largest economy in the world is slowing rapidly as more bad debt builds up in their system. They have a real estate bubble that makes the U.S. bubble seem like a pimple on the ass of a fly. A trade war initiated by Donald Trump would be the pin bursting the Chinese debt bubble. The situation could intensify into a bond selloff and panic. If derivative positions of over-leveraged or poorly-hedged globally systemic banks begin to unravel, cascading losses could lead to a vicious cycle and a tragic outcome.
9. Potential military conflict between China and Japan/U.S. over the islands in the South China Sea ramps up by the day. No one wants a war, but all it would take is a careless stupid act by a low level military officer to create a crisis. China is already bent out of shape by Trump acknowledging the existence of Taiwan. China is still essentially a dictatorship. The country is racked by corruption. An economic collapse could be met with distracting the public through a military adventure against Taiwan. These scenarios are unlikely in 2017, but not out of the question.
10. The most likely and potentially most dire event which could affect the world in 2017 is the disintegration of the EU. Greece is still a basket case. Italy is on the brink. The EU area economy barely registers positive after years of negative interest rates and debt issuance. Unemployment rates, excluding Germany, range between 10% and 25%. Brexit and Trump’s victory portend a further shift to the right in the EU. The right wing party will win the French presidency. Merkel will be defeated in the upcoming elections. France and Italy are likely to have a referendum on leaving the EU. The departure of either will end the failed experiment. The insolvent Italian, French and German banks, specifically Deutsche Bank, will collapse in an EU disintegration scenario.
11. The influx of Muslims into Europe is destroying their culture and leading to violence, terrorism, bloodshed, and now retribution. The left wingers have made a dreadful mistake in allowing hordes of Muslims to invade their countries. Their already fraying social welfare states are now completely bankrupt and citizens are afraid to go into the streets for fear of being attacked by members of the religion of peace. With the right gaining power in France, Germany and Italy, the blowback against Muslims will be violent and bloody. European cities will be rocked with violence throughout 2017.

“Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

Morning Thoughts - Daily

I also would like for the same to be done for the article that I have placed here from The Burning Platform. We must be aware of possible events so that if any happen we at least understand them. The brilliance of this article deserves for it also to be read in its entirety and as with the Martin Armstrong article I am asking for those trading Forex Demo Accounts with FXCM UK to share your brief thoughts on what you understand about the information shared here.

Anyone else either subscribed to the Thread on Money Flow and Risk Management is welcome to post here and I encourage it. Of course if you are not subscribed and just come here for information or knowledge you are also more than welcome to join our Forex community on this thread.

Trading Forex is a complex matter and only through discussion and sharing and asking of questions can those that really want to be able to profit will move forward. Trading is a way of life and only those that understand that can make financial gains because no matter what without desire and DISCIPLINE no person will become professional in any business or endeavor.

I look forward to hear from everyone.


Benjaminis

Armstrong Economics.com – Martin

The huge turning point appears to be in 2018.
He arrived by this conclusion because he is advising around the world and can see everyone’s perspective.
No markets can be forecasted in isolation, you have to look at the different aspects that influence the market. Bankers are not capable of manipulating a market’s counter trend, nobody is, and not even a central bank can manipulate the economy.
Everything is connected, once you understand that nothing takes place in isolation, you can see the trend coming before it arrives.
Once you see the world capital flows dictate the outcome of everything, then investing and trading becomes a lot easier.

Maybe this will help ...

The Burning Platform.com

The country is as divided as it was after the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. The pure hatred and contempt between the winners and losers in the recent election does not bode well for the country over the next four to eight years.
Barack Obama, has done more to destroy race relations and sense of community than any president in history. His divisive rhetoric and actions over the last eight years created the atmosphere for the acrimonious election and the violent protests that followed. His legacy is one of complete and utter failure.
Barack Obama is doing everything in his power to provoke World War III with Russia and to inflame the Middle East with his UN engineered snub of Israel.
The level of global disorder hasn’t been this high since the 1930s.
The only thing keeping this global Ponzi scheme alive is the unfounded belief in the brilliance of central bankers and corrupt politicians.
Propaganda machine has convinced the masses we are living in normal times, but reality is much worse, the Feds had $ 3.5 trillion printed and given to Wall street’s banks, interest rates have been kept at or near zero, the national debt has doubled to $20 trillion, so everything is not as it seems.