Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Hi Benjamin,
1. I completely agree with everything you said. The reason I traded these 2k euro live is because I wanted to TAME my FEAR. It's just one aspect I wanted to work on beforehand entering this business. It's enough to feel the fear that a 50k demo account would not give me.
But I will certainly use it less. I don't feel any rush to get back to break even (2k) with this account. It will take take, but I have plenty.
I know, agree and understand that in order to succeed we must diminish the risks, hence we need a large account. (50k+)

2. My second point is that I am really thankful that you take your time and explain everything to us. We are like children learning math for the first time. And you are the most patient teacher we could ever encounter. My gratitude for you will last forever for that reason.

3. Everyone rushes to understand your technical method instead of seeing that your plan is: checking if we have the potential, then properly make us understand the basic rules to succeed, barely then (if we are worthy) going into deep and nuanced details from your methods that you accumulated in so many years.
THERE ARE NO SHORTCUTS. We must prove worthy first. My 50k demo will become the priority from now, as I understand now that it's my main tool in this process of learning.

4. I'll catch up with last page of info you posted and then I will start learning the basics of Awesome Oscillator and Fractals, perhaps about Bill Williams as well. I want to be ready for when the moment comes for you to teach us how these work in synergy with each other and with Support and Resistance.

5. In my performance update I wanted to highlight how you saved me from a catastrophic trading style and slowly going on the right path. It's far from perfect, far from decent actually, but it's improving.

6. If I were to make consistently 10% a month, I wouldn't hesitate to add 50k real funds myself in the market. I also hate to lose money but I will be confident in the 10%/month ability that I proved myself with month after month. Is it wrong that I think like this? Perhaps my 2k live account made me lose this 'fear'?

Regards!

Before I even finished uploading this printscreen last candle dropped under previous resistance level.
Will rack in good profit out of this one.

EDIT: US30 on M15 chart. (forgot I cut that part out)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...rist-financing я прочитал эту статью, это было интересно. Политика вмешивается в экономику , чтобы свернуть цены на золото, а затем последует покупка золота. С какой целью банкиры и центральные банки Европы и США увеличат запасы золота? Trilionnye государственные долги заставили их придумывать всякие ходы, в том числе долги сброса приравнивая деньги обратно к золоту? Бенджамин, как вы думаете? US30 knocked on the s / l in the profit zone. I think again to go to a sell

Hello KeepCalmfx

Here is how I plan a Trade Plan which we have now done for the time until March 31, 2017. If at anytime new factors arise the Trade Plan can be cancelled so we are not locked into anything and we can think on our feet. However we have established 4 Trade Plans for 2017 until as I said , March 31, 2017.

(1) SHORT US30 - $100,000 US or 100 units on FXCM UK Demo Platform.

(2) SHORT USD/JPY - $100,000 US or 100 units on FXCM UK Demo Platform. NOTE: When USD/JPY goes from 120.00 to 100.00 even though we are Shorting on the actual trade. The USD/JPY currency pair is getting STRONGER in favor of the YEN as the Risk Off causes some of the TRILLIONS moving around each day to go into the YEN as long as we have a Risk Off status.

(3) LONG Gold - $100,000 US or 100 Ounces

(4) Long Silver - $100,000 US or 5000 Ounces

We move STOPS to LOCK in PROFITS and Avoid Losses. That goes along with the Risk Management strategy. I will leave technical issues for a later post and some others here could explain that better than myself if they wish to do so.

Please post any follow up questions. Thank You.


Benjaminis

Thank you very much for your comprehensive reply. I am more than happy to work with you and we work well together since we both have the same goals which is to make money and enjoy it and use teamwork and all get along and be helpful to each other.


Benjaminis

Hello mrmkg01 and welcome.

Congratulations for your first posting on Forex Factory.

Here is the link: https://www.fxcm.com/uk/forex-trading-demo/

Thanks

Yes we have 2 spaces left so just follow the instructions to open the FXCM UK Demo Account and post the User Number here and PM me on Forex Factory your password. You can also email to [email protected]

Welcome aboard !!!


Benjaminis

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...et-the-future/

Snippet:

QUESTION: As a small retail investor, what would Marty suggest to invest in if in fact we break the 23000 level on the DOW and we do in fact get the phase transition that he is talking about? Furthermore, what would he use to profit from it? Shares in particular stocks, futures contracts or options in the DOW index? Lastly, if this phase transition does happen, what is the longest time frame that it would last, 12 to 18 months?
Thank Marty for all that he has done for us little guys. He has really opened my eyes to what is going on in this world.

ANSWER: In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.

The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence. What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.
These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic.

Please keep in mind that Europe goes home by Noon EST or in 40 minutes or less so watch for SHORT COVERING !!!

Will check news around the world now. I also will share a great FREE resource site for great information. I go there at least once a day. It is WWW.JSMINESET.COM


Posted December 28th, 2016 at 10:09 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under Jim's Mailbox.
Jim,


ECB tells Monte dei Paschi it needs to raise 8.8 billion euros– who do you think is responsible for the endless black hole, and why is the money of those responsible not confiscated?

CIGA Gijsbert

ECB Tells Monte Dei Paschi It Needs To Raise 8.8 Billion Euros
December 27, 2016
The European Central Bank has told Monte dei Paschi it needs to plug a capital shortfall of 8.8 billion euros (7 billion pounds), higher than a previous 5 billion euro gap estimated by the bank, the lender said on Monday, confirming what sources told Reuters.
Last Friday the Italian government approved a decree to bail out Monte dei Paschi (BMPS.MI) after Italy’s No. 3 lender failed to win investor backing for a desperately needed 5 billion euro capital increase.

The bank said on Monday it had officially asked the ECB last Friday for go ahead for a “precautionary recapitalisation”.
More…

2017: The Year of the Truth Bomb!
Posted December 28th, 2016 at 9:52 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under General Editorial.

The end of one year and the beginning of another is always the time to reflect and look forward. 2016 was a tale of two separate years. The first half (which followed the Fed’s rate hike) saw unsettled markets. Equities around the world looked like they were unravelling in Jan. and early February. Sovereign credit markets were generally firm while gold and silver took off like scalded dogs.

Then in the middle of the year, equities rebounded, interest rates started to rise while the gold and silver rallies were contained. Interestingly, the mining shares which were at one point in May, up 150% ytd, are still up roughly 50% but have been crushed anew. The second half and in particular the last quarter has seen interest rates all over the globe begin to rise fiercely. I believe this is THE most important event of 2016, the end of a 35 year bull market in “credit”!
As we end the year, there is nearly no “RISK premium” anywhere to be found. In fact, the mainstream explanation for higher rates is the “reflation” trade, I disagree. I believe the higher interest rates are a function of liquidity tightness. The old debt/growth leading to more debt/more growth circle has been broken because “debt saturation” levels have been reached. The central banks are stuck as they have cornered too much collateral and are now being forced to look at other markets (including equities) to onload to their balance sheets. Risk premium serves a very important purpose in “pricing” assets. Central banks have tried to negate this concept and have only created a scenario of “premium” nowhere and “risk” everywhere. In a world with more debt and the worst debt ratios ever, risk is unaccounted for.

2016 also saw the rise of the populist movement. We saw it in Britain, the U.S. and then Italy. Globalism is in the process of being rebuked and will again be tested in France and Germany next year. The movement has clearly gained traction as the globalist policies have not and are not working. People can “feel” this and see it with their own eyes.

2016 may have been the tipping point, 2017 could very well be the year the tipping point is widely known and understood. The French and German elections are slated, the validity of the “European Union” stands in the balance. It will be quite interesting to see, should the EU begin to unravel what will happen with the ECB? Who guarantees the ECB and what happens with their giant balance sheet? Of course, the same questions need to be asked about the euro itself and how sovereign currencies will be reintroduced?

“Truth” was also a key topic in 2016 thanks to WikiLeaks. Globalist propaganda “truth” versus the actual truth has come out into the open and become a battleground. In fact, several nations are trying to “legislate” truth, the latest being Obama Quietly Signs The “Countering Disinformation And Propaganda Act” Into Law. This is obviously quite dangerous and sews the seeds of potential conflict. The last quarter of 2016 saw some extremely interesting “truths” come out. Some that we certainly already knew, some we could not even imagine. What was interesting, nothing WikiLeaks put forth was denied, only their “methods” and thus the shots fired at messengers only.

It is hoped 2017 will be different and President elect does “drain the swamp”. Many do not believe this will happen. Many are either scared stiffless into their snowflake shelters while many others believe him to be a Trojan horse set in place to continue the pillaging. I personally do not believe this, we will find out shortly after his arrival. Either Mr. Trump is real or he is not. If he is not, what we have lived with over the last many years will continue into a lawless hyperinflation. It is with the assumption that Mr. Trump is real and truly a patriot that I will look at 2017.

First, I believe we will see some clues almost immediately as to whether Mr. Trump is real or not. Who will he nominate to replace Justice Scalia? Will he negate the many ridiculous (unconstitutional) executive orders? How will Jeff Sessions proceed? These are just a few questions but correct answers I believe will suffice to at least knowing the direction we are headed.

Maybe the following is wishful thinking, maybe not but I do believe 2017 has the potential to be the year of the truth bombs (plural)! Interest rates have already risen and will begin to expose the over leveraged in a fashion often described by Warren Buffett as the “tide going out”. We already see signs of this with various cities (Detroit, Chicago, Dallas), various states (Illinois, California, Puerto Rico), and even on a federal level. Higher rates will undermine bond values and thus pension/retirement funds. This is an ugly truth that will affect the general population and cannot be ignored.

The “rule of law” is another area. No one was prosecuted after the 2008 debacle, will Wall St. finally be held accountable? Will crooks go to jail or will it be smoothed over with monetary fines? What about these firms who have already paid fines, will they be successfully sued in civil courts? Will trustees be held accountable as pension plans/benefits fail? What about election fraud? Will there be investigations into cities who returned more votes for Hillary than were cast in total? Will the Podesta e-mails be investigated for Clinton foundation tax fraud amongst other misdoings? What about the pedophilia information, will this be a string they pull on or does it get a pass? Banking is obviously another topic, how are the “insolvents” handled? Will bail ins prevail in 2017 as per new legislation?

These are all tough questions and by no means totally inclusive as fraud prevails throughout every nook and cranny. It is my belief we will see early on this coming year as to the “mechanics”. One thought process to explore and likely in my opinion is a plan exists to dump it all on Mr. Trump. In other words and as Jim has asked, “will the machine even operate for him or do they just shut down and let the roof cave in”?

Thinking this through, if the Trump administration does actually pull on a few threads, do they unravel the whole system? If they don’t pull on various threads, will the “machine” (ESF) actually function for Trump? I guess it boils down to whether or not he is “one of them”. As stated, I do not believe he is “paid for” so it will be game over one way or another. Either the administration digs under the wrong rock or the fuse is lit before he even takes office.

I have written and offered proof that we are past the point of no return financially. The collapse is already carved in stone, higher rates will expedite the process. The question as I saw the election is whether we would deal with the coming financial, economic and social ramifications under a true rule of law or not. I suspect we will end 2017 “knowing” many things as “fact” that we only know in our gut now. In fact, if I was asked advice for Mr. Trump, I would advise he contact John Williams and go to the American people with his findings.

If Mr. Trump was smart (and gave no fear for his life), he would go to the American people with “benchmark” revisions going back some 30 or more years. Yes, the entire system will come down (as it will anyway) on his watch but coming clean is the best way to do it. Show true inflation, growth and unemployment numbers …during each previous administration and where we are truly now! This would be one heck of a truth bomb but the easiest way to avoid blame AND clear the slate to go forward.

To finish, yes there was much speculation and even “hope” in this writing. But one thing is for sure, we will one way or another see more “truth” than we have for many years. The truth will come because as Ricky used to tell Lucy, “you got a lot of ‘splaining to do”!

The conditions now exist that the “old truth” cannot be stretched any further, recent elections are proof the common man is no longer being fooled. Whether they be internal, external, international, financial, economic, social and of course criminal, truths of all sorts will most likely circle the globe like a flock of black swans in 2017!

That will do it for the remainder of the week unless something big comes up and needs commentary. We wish you a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!


Bill and Jim

Benjaminis

High probability these trades will touch my limit level.
I'm making friends with the fractals, and not so much with the Awesome Oscillator yet.

EDIT: Two of the 3 US30 trades were a short opportunity I've taken on a fast moving spike. I know I exceeded the 6% account risk at the same time by having 5 open trades of 100 units BUT i placed very tight stop and limits on these trades. I won't make a habit out of it.

HEADS UP FELLOW TRADERS !!!

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:

As we first reported one week ago, a "red flag" emerged for the market, and big hurdle for Dow surpassing 20,000, as a result of year-end pension fund rebalancing, which as Credit Suisse calculated have to sell between $38 and $58 billion. According to CS analyst Victor Lin, the estimated rotation out of domestic U.S. equities would be one of the largest on record with relatively large outperformance versus other asset classes both on a monthly and quarterly basis.

And, as yesterday's price action showed, "prudently" said pension funds appear to have waited until the very last possible moment, i.e., the end of the year to dump billions in ultra thin tape, leaving C-grade traders in charge of execution.

Further, as RBC's cross asset head Charlie McElliggott notes in a note this morning, yesterday's selling was hardly the only "rebalancing day", with today and tomorrow still on the calendar.

So what time should traders expect these selling waves?


Here is RBC's answer:
Mean-reversion (both cross-asset and intra-asset) has officially commenced ahead of schedule, but still setting-up for a now modestly downgraded January Effect; that said, real money / asset-allocators have a longer-term basis to continue to shift portfolios to a more reflationary-footing which will see that equities dip bot and that UST rally sold (which is a now dangerous market consensus in and of itself!); the key to sustaining the move will HAVE to be the continued percolation of animal spirits in 1Q17 economic data with confidence metrics, inflation and PMIs.

The US Dollar has reversed the entirety of yesterdays gains (and then-some) on four key inputs over the past session and a half:

 

1. Large month-end FX hedging from US equities clients, where major MTD gains in stocks force USD-selling on the hedging adjustment.

1. Lower US rates (= stronger USTs) from the blistering indirect takedown (highest all-time at 71.4%) at yesterdays strong 5Y auction, which stopped 1.2bps through WI and squeezed the mongo leveraged-fund short base
2. Lower US rates (= stronger USTs) boosted by the mechanical pension asset-rebalancing into bonds from stocks (on acct of massive relative performance gap MTD / QTD), most-clearly evidenced by the programmatic ~ half-hour long selling-waves seen in SPX at 9:35am, 11:55am and 3:35pm. Expect this flow to continue through the new year, as market liquidity simply is not deep enough to take it.

In other words, anyone looking to BTFD may want to step away just before noon today - and especially tomorrow when nobody will be around - and just after the start of what is the traditional 3:30pm ramp, which if RBC is correct, will have an opposite effect on the market in the last 25 minutes of trading.

Silver Watch !!!

5 Minute Chart from Finviz

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

My Silver Long before the spike happening. (on the live account)

ANOTHER IMPORTANT LESSON FOR ALL OF US INCLUDING ME !!!

I just closed my last Silver Position with a profit on the actual trade itself and yesterday I had a draw down of $840 US. So now I had a Net Loss of $90 after deducting the rollover costs. So I said PUT AWAY the EGO and take the small Net Loss.

Sorry Folks , still do not have the patience to do my screenshot. Maybe I will hire a young assistant to do it for me. I am single and work alone however that is off topic, I think. (Smile)

Here is my summary and after 9 days my results are over 6% !!! All in DEMO CASH !!!

CommTrading Commission-8.00

RolloverRollover Fee-832.50

PnLProfit/Loss of Trade4,029.75

DeposDeposit50,000.00

WithdWithdrawal0.00
OptionOptions Payout0.00
CommOptions Commission0.00
AdminFeeAdministrative Fee0.00
MngFeeManagement Fee0.00
PerfFeePerformance Fee0.00
VoidDeposit Rollback0.00
ASPCommASP Commission0.00
MargInterestInterest on Usable Margin0.00
SubscriptionFeeSubscription Fee0.00
RRebRollover Rebate0.00
Div_AdjDividend adjastment0.00

Ending Balance53,189.25

Floating P/L0.00
Equity53,189.25

Necessary Margin0.00

Usable Margin53,189.25

P.S. The Profit on the Trade itself was $310 US and my Rollover costs of $50 US a day was $400 US so my Net Loss was $90 US and now I can relax and go for lunch. When I trade a demo account to teach for me personally it is no different than trading real funds. That is all about Attitude.
So I feel great and free to enjoy my day and might not do another trade today.

One day I will post the results of my $5,000,000 US funds demo account when PFG Best out of Chicago was in business. I did 1804 Forex Trades in exactly 56 days and you can guess if you want how many of those trades were losing ones. I did have an EGO problem in those days back in 2008.

I brought the Demo Balance to just over $7,500,000 and look forward to the day hopefully in the near future where I will be trading a minimum of $10,000,000 US Dollars for my corporation and its shareholders.


Benjaminis HAPPY !!!

I messaged you about that issue, hope it helps.
Awesome results!

Thanks dttsomh

I will read it after lunch. It is 12:02 PM EST here where I live. Snow outside and all is well.

Take care and be well.


Benjaminin

Opened SELL US30, stop to breakeven zone. Schedule Gold with a live account. Already there is profit

Great !!!

Keep it Up !!!


Benjaminis

This is the top”
December 29, 2016 12:00pm by Barry Ritholtz
http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/top.png
Source: Reformed Broker

From Finviz

Hourly - US Dollar Index - Futures

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1


Benjaminis

This looks scary for our trade plan