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  • #981
  • Dec 22, 2016 6:59am Dec 22, 2016 6:59am
Quoting cat
Thought for Christmas - Trading accurately is like weather forecasting, the longer range the forecast, the less accurate it is going to be. So an entry on an hourly chart is going to need a much bigger stop loss and will be far less precise than an entry on a 1 minute chart, obviously. Many relatively inexperienced traders risk way too much per trade for the size of their account, because they are entering trades on time frames that are too big for their account size, mistakenly believing that the larger the time frame, the easier it is to trade,...
I would like to add to this post that Risk Management is important also. By having key objectives before entering the trade, Capital preservation and realistic profit objectives and having the discipline to follow your plan.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #982
  • Dec 22, 2016 7:18am Dec 22, 2016 7:18am
cat, everybody, greetings!

EUR/USD on 2017, two simple fundamental arguments outlook
by far the most important, they will weight heavily on the traders ...sentiment

- Fed estimated 3 hikessss(!) E/U possible bearish (strong bearish, hysterical parity)
- "Trump's policy is not only free cash on the streets, but also deficit and debt." E/U possible bullish

So, the game is on by now, folks! (hopefully not crazy volatility)
Member
  • #983
  • Dec 22, 2016 9:14am Dec 22, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I would like to add to this post that Risk Management is important also. By having key objectives before entering the trade, Capital preservation and realistic profit objectives and having the discipline to follow your plan.
Indeed it is, but all that is discussed above, and I try not to repeat myself too much on this thread. In general, you have to be super tight when you're trading, and any lapses in discipline, concentration, or respect for the market gets ruthlessly punished. Everything has to calculated to the greatest degree possible - entries, stops, exits, risk/reward, all within one's limits. When this is lacking, or when it breaks down for whatever reason, things go badly wrong. Intuition and feel for the markets does come into play the more experienced a trader becomes, but in my own experience this is something that takes considerably longer than just one or two years.
  • #984
  • Dec 22, 2016 11:10am Dec 22, 2016 11:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} Indeed it is, but all that is discussed above, and I try not to repeat myself too much on this thread. In general, you have to be super tight when you're trading, and any lapses in discipline, concentration, or respect for the market gets ruthlessly punished. Everything has to calculated to the greatest degree possible - entries, stops, exits, risk/reward, all within one's limits. When this is lacking, or when it breaks down for whatever reason, things go badly wrong. Intuition and feel for the markets...
Indeed it does.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #985
  • Dec 23, 2016 3:55am Dec 23, 2016 3:55am
When to know what to trade ?

I guess it's much simple to know what to trade when you already figured out when to trade.

And you don't really have to be smart at all to know when to trade:
1. any fool can take profit when the market is trending(!) -bulish market, buy the HL's and sell the HH's - bearish market, buy the LL's and sell LH's;
2. any fool can take profit when the market is ranging(!) buy the bottom- sell the top;

Easy, isn't it?!
Well, logically, it's obvious that the secret consist in knowing when the market it's trending and when it's ranging.

So, any strategy you use, just be aware you need a tool (indicator, method, drawing tool...)
which can give you a hint about the current market behaviour, trend or range.

Example (minimum measure example):
Use the banal ATR to measure the volatility (size) ...and use a banal RSI to measure the momentum (strength).

...I think that's common sense
Member
  • #986
  • Dec 27, 2016 6:19am Dec 27, 2016 6:19am
All traders need to have a simple blueprint which shows them the day's likely direction and where the main S&R levels are. This is the very first requirement for trading, and if we don't have this, everything else is a waste of time.

Once this has been achieved, then the entries can become the main focus, because using strict money management and a stop loss relative to your account size, entries have to be as clean and precise as is possible to achieve whilst allowing enough breathing space for any adverse movements against one's position. All traders need to spend a great deal of time working towards entry optimization - entering positions neither too early or too late. Trading requires a never ending search for perfection, not that this exists, because it doesn't, but to have this as one's goal is the way to keep on improving. There are clear signals for optimal trade entries, but these signals mean nothing in isolation - they have to be viewed as the final piece in a jigsaw, building the outline first and gradually bringing the picture into view the more parts are added. Trading is just like this - being able to see the whole before being able to piece together the constituent parts until the final piece is so obvious that a chimpanzee could see it. Finally, as long as the groundwork is fully in place, there should never be any doubt about whether to enter a trade or not. It is a trade opportunity or it isn't.

Any failure to achieve the above is a failure to achieve the absolute essential requirements for successful trading, and the result will ultimately always be the same.
  • #987
  • Dec 27, 2016 12:21pm Dec 27, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting cat
All traders need to have a simple blueprint which shows them the day's likely direction and where the main S&R levels are. This is the very first requirement for trading, and if we don't have this, everything else is a waste of time. Once this has been achieved, then the entries can become the main focus, because using strict money management and a stop loss relative to your account size, entries have to be as clean and precise as is possible to achieve whilst allowing enough breathing space for any adverse movements against one's position. All...
Excellent Post. This is the way I trade now.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #988
  • Edited 8:46am Dec 30, 2016 8:23am | Edited 8:46am
Quick post whilst it's fresh in my mind.

Reversals -

These will very often come after an exaggerated movement in the direction of the current movement. This aggressive price movement will often follow a period of sideways movement as the price sets up for a roll over going with the trend. Then the price will stop, usually on or close to a major S&R level like a moving average, fib level or trendline. To try to capture this potential top or bottom at this point is never wise, as it amounts to no more than pure guesswork and a gamble which may pay off, but may not, so always better to wait for confirmation that the price is about to start heading in the opposite direction.

Apart from using moving averages to help you here as I do, there is very often a tell tale sign in the price movement before it moves away. If which ever moving averages you use have come underneath or over the price, your MACD is correctly positioned, and you get a very schizophrenic area of pa, that is, a very messy looking sideways movement, then this is a sign that the price will shortly move off in the required direction. This is because many traders have recognized the reversal signals and are putting on trades, but at the same time there are still traders hanging onto their previous positions, and the battle that ensues between bulls and bears is represented on your charts as chop. However, in the vast majority of these situations, the reversal positions win the day, and this short area of volatility is a good place to enter with a stop loss far enough away to be well clear of the battlefield.

For those wanting an example, look at today's Dax, friday 30th Dec. We got the powerful second leg down at 10.24 am London time, the first being the London open, and the period of chop was around the hour at 11am on the 1 minute chart. My moving averages were nicely positioned beneath the price and MACD was rising.

Backtest this and you will see this pattern repeated time and time again. Remember, trading is all about identifying repeating patterns. Once you begin to identify them, the whole process becomes that much easier. How do they repeat themselves? Because although the market is not completely predictable, human nature is, and it is this above anything else which drives the markets, and the reason why they can be traded at all.

Happy New Year everyone! See you in 2017.

Cat

ps - I've added the 3 minute chart to help you with the above.
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  • #989
  • Edited 11:23am Dec 30, 2016 11:09am | Edited 11:23am
Inserted Video


This is a bit corny, but it's all true. Most people on forex factory will never become successful traders. Ask yourself why this is so, and do everything you need to do to ensure you are not one of them.

I'm no expert in this field, all I really know is what drives me. But I have lived long enough and taken on enough enterprises to have observed that overall, the people who succeed aren't necessarily the smartest, they are the best organized, the most methodical, the most professional, and above all, they are the ones who work the hardest. None of these attributes will guarantee success as a trader, but it will be impossible to succeed without them.
  • #990
  • Dec 30, 2016 12:04pm Dec 30, 2016 12:04pm
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  • #991
  • Dec 31, 2016 6:20am Dec 31, 2016 6:20am
Quoting cat
This is a bit corny,
Really great vid
  • #992
  • Edited 10:37pm Dec 31, 2016 10:16pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting cat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws28EJkNyqw This is a bit corny, but it's all true. Most people on forex factory will never become successful traders. Ask yourself why this is so, and do everything you need to do to ensure you are not one of them. I'm no expert in this field, all I really know is what drives me. But I have lived long enough and taken on enough enterprises to have observed that overall, the people who succeed aren't necessarily the smartest, they are the best organized, the most methodical, the most professional, and above...
Happy new year ! Cat

Great motivational video to start the new day of the year.

As for your post on DAX on pointing reversals. If there wasn't a divergence I wouldn't have been able to tell the difference <see the circled areas> between the candles and the pattern.

From what I have observed on EURAUD I'm sure it applies to others as well, if you're entering on 10sec chart divergence on 1min and a 2min chart is crucial as opposed to divergence on higher time frames.
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  • #993
  • Edited Jan 2, 2017 5:57am Jan 1, 2017 7:32am | Edited Jan 2, 2017 5:57am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Happy new year ! Cat Great motivational video to start the new day of the year. As for your post on DAX on pointing reversals. If there wasn't a divergence I wouldn't have been able to tell the difference <see the circled areas> between the candles and the pattern. From what I have observed on EURAUD I'm sure it applies to others as well, if you're entering on 10sec chart divergence on 1min and a 2min chart is crucial as opposed to divergence on higher time frames. {image}
and Happy New Year to you Piquant.

Anything I post here applies right across the board, so whether it be the Dax, Gold, or one of the forex pairs, it doesn't matter. Generally, if you trade one pair or index, you can trade anything as the same technical patterns exist. The only thing that differs is the personality, so for example the Dax tends to have much more volatility than say EU, with bigger, faster moves, which is why it's more difficult to trade, but once you have become familiar with it, it trades like anything else.

Regarding you not seeing any difference between the brief move up just before 9am and the reversal at 11am, there were several actually. The diversion is a big one, but diversion is only one indicator, and you need more than one to make a trading decision. In many ways, this is where experience comes into play, because the more time you have spent sitting watching price movement and interacting with it by putting on trades, whether on demo or live, the better you will be able to read price movement. But lets leave that alone and focus on something objective, because we all understand the rule ' practice makes perfect '. For me, and I've spoken about this on this thread, moving average order and positioning is crucial, not just on one time frame, but on all the ones I use. So just trading off of a 10 sec and 1 minute time frame on these moves outlined above, no , you would not be able to see any difference between the first and the second, apart from the fact that there was no diversion, and nothing really to indicate that the price was going to rally all the way back up at the first attempt, and neither was there any support that I could see on any of the bigger time frames I was watching. The likelihood that the price was going to roll over then was high. In fact, if you'd gone long at the first one, you would probably have held it and missed out on a perfect roll over short trade off of the 20 sec 200ema, and may have even ended up taking a loss if you hadn't moved your sl to BE.

Then, as I drew attention to above, we got a very powerful down move which stopped on the 90 min 200sma ( yes, the 90 min is a pretty important time frame on the Dax, and worth keeping an eye on with the 30m, H1, and H4 ) Thjis for me was the first strong sign that the price now had a good chance of reversing. But the clincher for me was my moving average set up on the 3 min time frame, because the order had been broken ( I've posted about this before on page 5 ...http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=557181&page=5. I'm afraid I don't give my moving averages away, and keep them off my charts, but it is a simple rule that anyone can add to their charts just by using the right sequence of moving averages, working by trial and error as I did. Basically, for the first move we are talking about, the short up move before the price rolled over, my moving average on the 3m tf were still in their correct order, so ABC, which told me that the price was likely to continue on after the pullback. But the second leg down interrupted that order, and when the price bottomed on the 90m 200sma, rose, and then put in a short period of sideways movement, my moving averages were ACB. Then came the telltale candle signals - a southern Doji/hammer on the 11am 3m tf, and the telltale sideways movement just above the 20sma on the 1min tf. The smaller frames, I was using a 20 sec as my smallest for that particular trade, narrow down the entry to give the most precise entry position possible.

Hope that helps
  • #994
  • Jan 2, 2017 6:55am Jan 2, 2017 6:55am
Far better to concentrate on just one or maximum two pairs or markets than go chasing after multiple ones in the hope of catching every move. I believe profoundly that if you cannot trade just one market successfully, by which I mean turn a consistent profit, then you are unlikely to succeed with two, three, or more. Some traders can, but they are few and far between and the majority will have at least ten professional trading years under their belt.
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  • #995
  • Jan 2, 2017 8:56am Jan 2, 2017 8:56am
This doesn't necessarily apply to recessions, these are 5 absolutely fundamental rules to trading success. Remember, successful traders are lone wolves - their success comes 100% from their own diligence and creativity. It is okay to seek guidance from others with more knowledge and experience, but ultimately success will be forged by you and you alone, and it can be a very very lonely business, which is one of the reasons so many fail. If you find sitting alone in a darkened room for many thousands of hours difficult, then trading is almost certainly not for you. Forums can be a good way to interact with other like minded people to relieve the solitude a bit, but they should not be used as a prop, because the majority of people on them do not know what they are doing and merely create a lot of noise which you, the trader, is better off doing without. Deep within yourself lies the key to trading success - you will find it nowhere else.

The beauty with trading more than any other profession I can think of is that it is the most solitary endeavour on the planet - no boss, no back up, no moral support when it comes to making the important decisions, and no mercy when things go wrong. In short, it is a game for heroes - to pit yourself against the enemy time and time again and come out fighting each and every time. Okay, so I'm being a bit dramatic, but this is the truth.

But before any of this, a trader has to learn, because to learn is to earn, and it cannot be the other way round.

http://www.wealthmastery.sg/5-types-...ing-recession/
  • #996
  • Jan 2, 2017 9:40am Jan 2, 2017 9:40am
Inserted Video


I put this together a while ago and just posted it on youtube, and thought I'd share here as some of the quotes, although about life in general, also apply to the world of trading.
  • #997
  • Jan 2, 2017 5:06pm Jan 2, 2017 5:06pm
Nice thread Cat.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #998
  • Edited 11:47pm Jan 2, 2017 11:37pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting cat
{quote} and Happy New Year to you Piquant. Anything I post here applies right across the board, so whether it be the Dax, Gold, or one of the forex pairs, it doesn't matter. Generally, if you trade one pair or index, you can trade anything as the same technical patterns exist. The only thing that differs is the personality, so for example the Dax tends to have much more volatility than say EU, with bigger, faster moves, which is why it's more difficult to trade, but once you have become familiar with it, it trades like anything else. Regarding you...
It's more than enough. Can't be more generous than that. I would have added a trend line. Think there was an apex formation along with the trend line. For me that was the go signal. Again have seen it work many times.

I don't expect to be spoon fed. But I do keep some of your posts as screenshots on my laptop (ascendency of MAs, I've got that one ). Although the use of it hasn't clicked with me just yet. Maybe it won't. Who knows. I'll have to see it myself. It's personal. But I'm sold on divergence. Have seen it work many times of course in conjunction with other things not by itself. Mileage really does matter. That's what stays with you, spoon fed information evaporates as quickly as it came.
...
  • #999
  • Jan 3, 2017 1:12am Jan 3, 2017 1:12am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} It's more than enough. Can't be more generous than that. I would have added a trend line. Think there was an apex formation along with the trend line. For me that was the go signal. Again have seen it work many times. I don't expect to be spoon fed. But I do keep some of your posts as screenshots on my laptop (ascendency of MAs, I've got that one ). Although the use of it hasn't clicked with me just yet. Maybe it won't. Who knows. I'll have to see it myself. It's personal. But I'm sold on divergence. Have seen it work many times...
Yes, you could have put a trend line in as well. Eventually, all the signals become apparent in real time. The key is being able to anticipate ahead of what the price is actually doing, so that when it does do what you are expecting to do, you are ready. Always let the market come to you rather than the opposite.
  • #1,000
  • Jan 3, 2017 1:13am Jan 3, 2017 1:13am
Quoting copi88
Nice thread Cat.
Thanks copi.
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