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  • #681
  • Aug 31, 2006 1:38am Aug 31, 2006 1:38am
What broker do you suggest to match data from broker and data from CSI most closely?
  • #682
  • Sep 3, 2006 1:21am Sep 3, 2006 1:21am
Quoting shungos
Hi,

I'm new here and didn't get a chance to read this whole thread, maybe half. I purchased VP a little while back and have been trying to figure out a system to trade it. I've come up with something simple that I want to know if anyone else has tested before (sorry if it's already been posted here, but I haven't seen it as of yet). I know there are already flaws in it due to the fact that all the data I'm using is daily, so it doesn't incorporate when each pair actually hits the high/low of the day. But I just tried a basic system using the following method:

If Neural index = 1, set buy order for next day at Predicted low, stop 200, limit half the distance between Predicted low and Predicted high. Exit at next day close if it is not closed already

Opposite for NI = 0

Here's a summary I have (if my excel formulas are correct) from 9/18/02 - 7/31/06:

Total pips for all markets: 175752
Total pips/day all markets: 124.4874314
Ave pips/day/market: 12.44874314
Ave total pips all markets: 17575.2
Ave win%: 90%
Ave PNI Correctness: 74%
Ave days/trade/market: 3.67

Now again, I know it won't actually work out this good depending on the time of day the order is opened compared to when the highs/lows are actually hit (which can be backtested with the new intraday data that was posted by floridaforex). Just wanted to to see if anyone has already tried this. I've included an excel sheet of my calculations (please help me check for mistakes) using data from CSI.

-Shungos
Shungos,<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

I am fairly new to VP as well and I am currently evaluating systems for expectancy.<o></o>

I downloaded and reviewed the system that you posted on 8/8. It took me a bit to think through the formulas, but I eventually made my way through them. As an aside it sure is easier to write formulas than read those of others.<o></o>

I found an issue with your logic that is giving false profitable trades instead of losses. I apologize if you have already sorted this out since your post is a little old.<o></o>

The formula logic seemed correct when I first reviewed it, but I caught the error when I checked a few trades. For an example, look at the 7/26 USD-CHF trade which shows a win, but when you review the trade it would have been a loss.<o></o>

Below I have highlighted the logic test that is causing the error below:<o></o>

=IF(L1004=1,IF(G1004>D1005,IF(0.5*(F1004-G1004)<C1005-G1004< font>,0.5*(F1004-G1004),E1005-G1004),0),IF(F1004<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = C1005,IF(0.5*(F1004-G1004)<F1004-D1005,0.5*(F1004-G1004),F1004-E1005),0))*10000<o /><C1005,IF(0.5*(F1004-G1004)<F1004-D1005,0.5*(F1004-G1004),F1004-E1005),0))*10000<o>

You enter the trade long since NI=1 at the PNDL, but you are taking half of the range for the day as profit when the close was actually below the PNDL. You need to add another logic test as to whether the trade ran against you.<o></o>

One other issue is about the handling of spreads. I am using CSI as well. It seems that the numbers that you are getting for OHLC are not what you would experience trading due to the spread (as well as data inacurracies, but that is another story).<o></o>

Did you already figure these issues out and do you have a corrected version of this spreadsheet that I can take a look at?<o></o>

Regards,
intranic <o></o>
</C1005,IF(0.5*(F1004-G1004)<F1004-D1005,0.5*(F1004-G1004),F1004-E1005),0))*10000<o>
  • #683
  • Sep 3, 2006 11:01pm Sep 3, 2006 11:01pm
I read through this thread and found no one really using Vantage Point to Position trade... Does anyone use it for position trading the Forex? if so any tips you want to share? i'm new to Vantage point.
Ride it like you stole it! Life begins at 25 Knots!
  • #684
  • Sep 4, 2006 4:44am Sep 4, 2006 4:44am
Quoting HighAsAKite
I read through this thread and found no one really using Vantage Point to Position trade... Does anyone use it for position trading the Forex? if so any tips you want to share? i'm new to Vantage point.
Using the MA10 and PMA10 cross to trade Gold gives a trade every few days to weeks and works very well, but it doesn't work with the forex currencies I have.

I've experimented with entry mechanisms of PHigh less a margin or PLow plus a margin, then holding the position until the direction changes (i.e. PMedian decreasing when it was increasing), but this seemed to be no better than always exiting the trade on a daily basis and was more complicated.

I got nowhere using NI at all, although some people in this thread have managed to done so, I may take another look at that sometime.

Have a look at BeachBum's entry technique described over the last couple of weeks, you may be able to develop a holding strategy based on this, but you'll need to do a lot of testing.

I hope these comments fit with your definition of "position trading".
  • #685
  • Sep 4, 2006 6:07pm Sep 4, 2006 6:07pm
Hello HAAK.....

Please provide us with your definition of "position trading".


Quoting HighAsAKite
I read through this thread and found no one really using Vantage Point to Position trade... Does anyone use it for position trading the Forex? if so any tips you want to share? i'm new to Vantage point.
  • #686
  • Sep 4, 2006 6:15pm Sep 4, 2006 6:15pm
Hi BeachBum,

When i refer to position trading, i'm referring to holding for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Catching a trend which may last a few days or a few weeks.

My major problem i have with trading during the day time is that i start work (wages) at 7am AEST which is about (5am EST), for me to impliment your trading strategy, or something similar, and the data isn't up for download till about 6pm EST i believe. Which makes it hard for me to do that work involved without my software & data... it all is at home. Any suggestions, as if i am able to impliment day trading i would like to look at that also.

Cheers,




Quoting BeachBum
Hello HAAK.....

Please provide us with your definition of "position trading".
Ride it like you stole it! Life begins at 25 Knots!
  • #687
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:19am Sep 5, 2006 9:19am
If your timezone is 2 hours later than EST, you would download daily data about 8 PM EST, correct? Are you not able to initiate a "set & forget" system at this time of the evening? You would then close out the following day at 6:30 PM your time. This would correspond to the times I have discussed in this thread's various posts. Not possible for you?



Quoting HighAsAKite
Hi BeachBum,

When i refer to position trading, i'm referring to holding for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Catching a trend which may last a few days or a few weeks.

My major problem i have with trading during the day time is that i start work (wages) at 7am AEST which is about (5am EST), for me to impliment your trading strategy, or something similar, and the data isn't up for download till about 6pm EST i believe. Which makes it hard for me to do that work involved without my software & data... it all is at home. Any suggestions, as if i am able to impliment day trading i would like to look at that also.

Cheers,
  • #688
  • Sep 5, 2006 9:26am Sep 5, 2006 9:26am
OK............I just Googled "AEST" and learned you are 14 hours later than EST. When I am downloading at 6 PM EST, you are at work ( 8 AM the next morning ) I'll think about this one for a while!



Quoting HighAsAKite
Hi BeachBum,

When i refer to position trading, i'm referring to holding for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Catching a trend which may last a few days or a few weeks.

My major problem i have with trading during the day time is that i start work (wages) at 7am AEST which is about (5am EST), for me to impliment your trading strategy, or something similar, and the data isn't up for download till about 6pm EST i believe. Which makes it hard for me to do that work involved without my software & data... it all is at home. Any suggestions, as if i am able to impliment day trading i would like to look at that also.

Cheers,
  • #689
  • Sep 5, 2006 10:04am Sep 5, 2006 10:04am
I have been trying to backtest a number of systems with VP for expectancy. I spent most of the holiday weekend working on this. I am interested in both daytrading and long term trend following systems.

I am becoming frustrated with the lack of tools to do this and the lack of integration with VP and backtesting tools, but it seems like there are some options.

Some general thoughts on this topic:

  1. Since it is EOD data and not intraday, backtesting will be only so reliable and will need to be augmented with forward testing. I want to use it to identify strategies to forward test.
  2. I found an Excel based backtesting program called BacktestingXL found here: http://www.analyzerxl.com/backtestingxl.htm . I have spent some time working with this and it has decent functionality although not nearly as many trading related function calls as say Tradestation. It allows you to write the system as Excel functions or in VBA. I am having trouble with it producing reliable results (e.g. daytrades set to be closed at EOD close are not being closed out that day,..) and have reached out to tech support. I am not sure for now if it is me or the program. It is cheap @ $250, but I am doubtful about what type of support that I will get. I am not a VBA expert so this option could get painful.
  3. I am thinking there has to be a way to get the VP indicator data imported into a tool with Backtesting such as Tradestation, Wealthlab, Metastock. I have not figure this out yet though. If possible this seems ideal as with TS it is free with 10 roundtrip forex trades monthly, it has lots of backtesting functionality, and it seems far more easy to use than VBA. Has anyone tried or done this?
  4. VP does hold its results in Access database format that is unprotected in the VP files directory. This does make it convenient to access for exporting the data and possibly linking to through ODBC. Has any one linked to the data from a backtesting program via ODBC?

The options I see now are:

  1. Dump history to Excel and use formulas with native functionality
  2. Dump history to Excel and use VBA
  3. Dump history to Excel and use BacktestingXL with formulas/VBA
  4. Goto Access databases directly that VP holds its data in that are located in the VP directory and do SQL queries
  5. Figure out a way to import the data into a tool with backtesting like Tradestation, etc...

Who is doing any advanced form of backtesting using VP? How are you doing it? Have I missed any available options? Has anyone figured out how to use BacktestingXL? Has anyone figured out how to import into TS or another tools with backtesting? Is there anyone out there with solid VBA experience that is willing to work together to script out some systems for backtesting inf BacktestingXL?

Thanks,
intranic

  • #690
  • Sep 5, 2006 4:54pm Sep 5, 2006 4:54pm
Hi BeachBum,

There is only one way that i can think about the whole thing. I would need to have a friend on the other side of the world with VantagePoint to send an email each day which contained the key figures (Predicted next day high, Predicted Next Day Low, Neual Index, etc.), then i could work from an excel spreadsheet, and base it from there, and purform my trade from that data. As this is probably unlikely to happen any suggestions on how i could over come this would be appreciated. I can place trades from work, etc. But cannot download data and have vantagepoint on work computer.

What to do, what to do???


Quoting BeachBum
OK............I just Googled "AEST" and learned you are 14 hours later than EST. When I am downloading at 6 PM EST, you are at work ( 8 AM the next morning ) I'll think about this one for a while!
Ride it like you stole it! Life begins at 25 Knots!
  • #691
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:49am Sep 7, 2006 3:49am
Hi BeachBum,

How do you get your CSI data no later than 5:30pm ET and work with VP ? Part of CSI data is available at 4.50 pm ET, but I think it's not sufficient data for VP prediction. When I download the data before 6:30 and open VP it shows that the data was last updated on the previous date. After 6:30 when I download the data and open VP it then says that it was last updated that day. I'd love to get my data at 5:30pm ET. And I'd like to ask you how can I know when to close everything before 9 am ( BIG NEWS DAYS ) ? Has it big impact on 'set&forget' system result ?

Regards,

Marcin
  • #692
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:13am Sep 7, 2006 8:13am
Marcin............

I don't do anything special when downloading CSI data and using VP at 5:30 PM EST, so I don't understand why you are having a problem. I suggest you contact CSI and/or VP about this. The VP development in this thread has centered on a true 24 hour "set & forget" system and my most recent posts have been about that type of trading strategy. I have tried to make it very clear in previous posts that any use of discretion with this type of strategy is not something that can be taught, but must be learned. (My style of trading will not work for everyone). Forward testing and a demo account are the tools you will need to do this. I have spent almost a year working with VP and have gained a wealth of information about using this software. But I have spent many hours doing this...........there is no substitute for putting in the time required to learn what you need to use VP in a profitable way.


Quoting MarcinWil
Hi BeachBum,

How do you get your CSI data no later than 5:30pm ET and work with VP ? Part of CSI data is available at 4.50 pm ET, but I think it's not sufficient data for VP prediction. When I download the data before 6:30 and open VP it shows that the data was last updated on the previous date. After 6:30 when I download the data and open VP it then says that it was last updated that day. I'd love to get my data at 5:30pm ET. And I'd like to ask you how can I know when to close everything before 9 am ( BIG NEWS DAYS ) ? Has it big impact on 'set&forget' system result ?

Regards,

Marcin
  • #693
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:14pm Sep 8, 2006 6:14pm
Hello everyone,

I have recently started forward testing of a simple VantagePoint system and would like to know others' thoughts.

1) Review the major Forex pairs each evening, and choose the one with the sharpest cross of Predicted 10-d MA over Actual 10-d MA (Blue line over Black line).
2) Place an entry order 20 pips inside Predicted Low for long positions, 20 pips inside Predicted High for short positions. Adjust orders for the spread at your broker.
3) Place initial stop 50 pips outside Predicted Low/High.
4) Buy lots in multiples of two. Set a Profit/Limit order target for 1/2 the position at the Predicted High if long, Predicted Low if short.
5) Let the second half of the position run, always keeping the stop 50 pips outside the next day's Predicted Low/High. The exception is never adjust the initial stop against the trade.
6) If not filled, evaluate the Blue vs. Black line the next evening. If the crossing angle still looks favorable adjust entry order for the next day's predicted values.
7) Exit if the Blue line crosses back over the Black line.
8) In a choppy market I might just target the whole position for exit at the profit target (Predicted Low/High) to avoid whipsaws.

I'll post a trading log after I have sufficient data.

Disclaimer: There are no guarantees in life, and definitely not in the forex market. Please use this information with caution and at your own risk.

Thanks,
Stoney
  • #694
  • Edited 9:28pm Sep 8, 2006 9:07pm | Edited 9:28pm
Hi all,

I recently developed automation for Vantagepoint's signals to plug in straight into MT4. This obviates the necessity to export VP numbers and use excel for additional number crunching and manual order placement. Thus this provides for little to no maintenance for set and forget vp based systems.

Initially I developed this for Beachbum specifically. After some urging from many of my trading buddies I am making this available to the public. The basic package is $200 which provides automated reading of VP indicators into MT4 for usage in MQL code. I have decided on this price based on the anticipated documentation and support I will need to provide as this is not a very straightforward installation of the solution for the lay computer user. I will need to write a manual for usage and currently want to gauge interest before I spend any time on this (I can tell you Beachbum needs one

Any coding modifications geared for specific trading systems (e.g. calculating pmedian etc and other number crunching) of the VP indicators I will have to quote on a case by case basis.

System requirements: Windows 2000/XP, MT4, VantagePoint
Package includes: executable, batch file, MQL code

NOTE: this is not trading system, just automation plugin for VP & MT4

Please feel free to PM me with any questions.
  • #695
  • Sep 8, 2006 11:34pm Sep 8, 2006 11:34pm
Hello BeachBum,

I have been reading and learning on FF and trading (blowing out) demo accounts for about 10 months now. In the last couple of months I have been able to sustain and actually slowly grow my current account through scalping alone.

I realized that this method of trading would make me grow old fast. I have been looking into VP for the last couple of months. I recently sold my ex-wifes harley and used part of that money to purchase VP. Best $3500 I have ever spent!!! I have only had the software one week now, and using your spreadsheet I have managed to pull 50 to 150 pips each night-(day) depending on how many pairs I pick.

I wanted to post a huge THANK YOU to you for sharing your hard earned strategy. My hat goes off to you. You won't be getting a bunch of hold my hand questions from me. I believe that I can take what you have already given, and build a solid trading style around it.

I will be forward testing my demo account for another couple of months. Hopefully showing possitive results, then on to real $$.

Once again, many thanks to you & Fiji and all the other master traders on FF that help all of us newbies out. With alot of hard work, hopefully one day in the future I will step up in the ranks enough to be able to pass on some worth while knowledge to someone who needed a little guidance ....just like me.

Peace,

fxstc
If at first you don't succeed, keep on suckin til you do succeed.
  • #696
  • Sep 9, 2006 6:42am Sep 9, 2006 6:42am
Quoting fxstc
Hello BeachBum,

I have been reading and learning on FF and trading (blowing out) demo accounts for about 10 months now. In the last couple of months I have been able to sustain and actually slowly grow my current account through scalping alone.

I realized that this method of trading would make me grow old fast. I have been looking into VP for the last couple of months. I recently sold my ex-wifes harley and used part of that money to purchase VP. Best $3500 I have ever spent!!! I have only had the software one week now, and using your spreadsheet I have managed to pull 50 to 150 pips each night-(day) depending on how many pairs I pick.

I wanted to post a huge THANK YOU to you for sharing your hard earned strategy. My hat goes off to you. You won't be getting a bunch of hold my hand questions from me. I believe that I can take what you have already given, and build a solid trading style around it.

I will be forward testing my demo account for another couple of months. Hopefully showing possitive results, then on to real $$.

Once again, many thanks to you & Fiji and all the other master traders on FF that help all of us newbies out. With alot of hard work, hopefully one day in the future I will step up in the ranks enough to be able to pass on some worth while knowledge to someone who needed a little guidance ....just like me.

Peace,

fxstc
Now THAT'S a success story! BeachBum, you're a hero!
  • #697
  • Sep 9, 2006 9:21am Sep 9, 2006 9:21am
Hello every1,
"When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph."
  • #698
  • Sep 9, 2006 9:53am Sep 9, 2006 9:53am
Sorry hit enter before I even started.
I have backtested and now foward it for the last week with real $$$ using the crossover of the 5day MAs. I always believe in KISS(keep it simple stupid)
In the back testing the results was from cross to cross a disaster. Then I took each trade from cross and checked where the long crosses hit Maximum high and vice a versa short crosses to Maxium Low before it crossed the other direction and found 8 out of 10 trades went atleast 50pips and about 50% of those went over 100pips, also I included the spread using my broker. Most trades last around 3days. I tested this on now 6 crosses since I have to do this by hand.
I went live($$$) since Sept 4 on 14 crosses had to put more $$ into the account because of Margin. I enter once the 5day Predicted crosses and set a 50pip limit on 1/2 the lots and 100pips on the remaining lots then move to BE on the remaining lots.
This week I had 8 trades go more than 100pips that means 150 on 8 of them and 5 that went 50pips and 1 about breakeven.

Bill
"When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph."
  • #699
  • Sep 9, 2006 10:05am Sep 9, 2006 10:05am
Hi fxstc............

You have literally made my day.........or perhaps I should say you have made the last 10 months of VP work very rewarding. Thank you! But I want to acknowledge that I have not done my work alone. There have been a number of good people here at FF who encouraged, helped and stuck with me through this process beginning with Fiji Trader.

And it's very rewarding to know you have taken a basic trading stragegy and made it work for you. Everyone please understand that the strategy I have posted is just that: basic. It can be improved upon and adjusted to be even better than it is in it's posted form. That is one reason I answer the "hold my hand" questions as I do. Do the work and the positive results will follow.

Keep up the good work!


Quoting fxstc
Hello BeachBum,

I have been reading and learning on FF and trading (blowing out) demo accounts for about 10 months now. In the last couple of months I have been able to sustain and actually slowly grow my current account through scalping alone.

I realized that this method of trading would make me grow old fast. I have been looking into VP for the last couple of months. I recently sold my ex-wifes harley and used part of that money to purchase VP. Best $3500 I have ever spent!!! I have only had the software one week now, and using your spreadsheet I have managed to pull 50 to 150 pips each night-(day) depending on how many pairs I pick.

I wanted to post a huge THANK YOU to you for sharing your hard earned strategy. My hat goes off to you. You won't be getting a bunch of hold my hand questions from me. I believe that I can take what you have already given, and build a solid trading style around it.

I will be forward testing my demo account for another couple of months. Hopefully showing possitive results, then on to real $$.

Once again, many thanks to you & Fiji and all the other master traders on FF that help all of us newbies out. With alot of hard work, hopefully one day in the future I will step up in the ranks enough to be able to pass on some worth while knowledge to someone who needed a little guidance ....just like me.

Peace,

fxstc
  • #700
  • Sep 9, 2006 10:09am Sep 9, 2006 10:09am
Thanks you very much! It's been my pleasure.



Quoting baddison
Now THAT'S a success story! BeachBum, you're a hero!
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