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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,741
  • Dec 17, 2016 6:37am Dec 17, 2016 6:37am
a
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Fti, your thoughts are wise and peaceful. A privilege to be granted here. Booked a decent present from Market on Friday. Will ponder of sharing good next weeks to follow. Thank you. Best regards, Exnav https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7DNQmSwSuU May have my way in our parts as below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDt3u2Ev1cI
Drive careful slippery roads., safe journey. Bon Voyage.

God Bless.
Merry Christmas.

regards
  • #56,742
  • Dec 17, 2016 3:10pm Dec 17, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting the redlion
{quote} for some one who makes fun of others "Little understanding of English" yours is pathetic... Infractions? last time I heard Infractions were not lethal .... Myocardial Infarctions on the other hand are pretty bad. You have Chi I have Pi? Pi=3.14159265359 is that what you meant?

you do pop up after some time..
  • #56,743
  • Edited 2:12am Dec 18, 2016 1:08am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} you do pop up after some time..
vic
I cannot be sure.
but the signs tells me, that he's very injured in the markets.

He pops up like an injured animal, trying to show the world his last acts of defiance.
Problem is he has no standing here. We know his follys.
I already had felt that his scorpions would eat him alive.
Best he consults a doctor before its too late. A second opinion about his self medication would be a good thing.
He should try smoke the correct stuff.

The thing is he is still trying to learn some stuff that may help him from his situation.
Thats why he's trying tio anger me spill the beans.
The thing he no knows is his situation probably is not caused by his skills.
Its at a place he cannot/unwilling to scratch.

It may not be the case of lacking anything, possibly too much the e-- stuff.
everytime he comes here display his ego, his situation gets worst.
but some animals no repents until it dies.
His book is already probably showing him the symtoms.

Normally a profitable book projects happiness and humility.
Same with the rich and successful, is easy to diffentiate the wannabes.


regards

reminds me of a chap i know. has everthing bigger than me. hahahahaha also bank loans.
one day it became biggest thing he owns.other thing he still owns,ego and misery.
  • #56,744
  • Edited 2:41am Dec 18, 2016 2:15am | Edited 2:41am
even a dog can go places, if it knows self discipline.
and of course "right" people helps.

meet piper.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/meet-pip...-bird-strikes/

regards

Ahh just right colours for him blue and yellow. Most visible for him.

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  • #56,745
  • Dec 18, 2016 2:45am Dec 18, 2016 2:45am
Quoting alexanderd
Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them funny-mentals. I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary component of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money. Ed Seykota I...
These information are useful, just not in the way the average person uses it. fundamental information and technical information, are just information, it's your analysis and strategy which provides you an edge in the information. You could say these 2 traders you mentioned, are strong technical traders, but in the same series of books, the market wizards, there is also ray daylio, who trades mainly off fundamentals, and there is Paul Tudor Jones, he trades using both technicals and fundamentals, both indicates reading Jesse Livermore, and he is a fundamental and technical trader, which refutes that only technical analysis works or fundamental analysis works.

So I think, those 2 traders are just really talking their own position, their sayings might be right, but they did not really say what it's contingent on. So don't let it blind you to other possibilities, that though at first look seems wrong or even out right contradicting, but there may be a grey area in between where both are right, because of a lack of a critical piece of information to reconcile them both.

Think deeper on what's said, and in what context, what's the contingency for it to be true, under what conditions is it false.
  • #56,746
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:16pm Dec 18, 2016 1:16pm
Quoting fti
{quote} vic I cannot be sure. but the signs tells me, that he's very injured in the markets. He pops up like an injured animal, trying to show the world his last acts of defiance. Problem is he has no standing here. We know his follys. I already had felt that his scorpions would eat him alive. Best he consults a doctor before its too late. A second opinion about his self medication would be a good thing. He should try smoke the correct stuff. The thing is he is still trying to learn some stuff that may help him from his situation....
The man who need helps but wants attention bcz ego ....

lets pray ...
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V
  • #56,747
  • Dec 18, 2016 4:45pm Dec 18, 2016 4:45pm
Please be adviced.
Security had informed me that my email had been hacked.
So will be silent until security is normalised.

regards
D o NOT c om muni cate via my mail until security is cleared. s n a r e mo d e.
  • #56,748
  • Dec 19, 2016 1:32am Dec 19, 2016 1:32am
Quoting fti
a{quote} Drive careful slippery roads., safe journey. Bon Voyage. God Bless. Merry Christmas. regards
Thank you, Fti, Merci bien!
What may those spies and slipperies get if we are adhering to just the mere basics (reflex dancing skills). At the moment, forecast for 22nd 23rd is -02+02 C. Then, I should keep slow and aware of unexpected.
Merry and Peaceful Christmas.

Best regards, Exnav
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Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,749
  • Dec 21, 2016 12:01am Dec 21, 2016 12:01am
WTF

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...hooting-attack

regards
  • #56,750
  • Dec 21, 2016 12:49am Dec 21, 2016 12:49am
Ahhhh MC bros. nice.

https://video.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t42.179...3c&oe=585A5EAA

regards
  • #56,751
  • Dec 21, 2016 3:02am Dec 21, 2016 3:02am
I think you are generally right about the technical analysis bit, but I don't think market structure and so on is the answer. Trying to outsmart other traders' behaviour also seems to be a fool's game. In the long-term the behaviour is too erratic to make a working strategy out of it. What prevails in the long-term seems to be fundamentals and specifically an initial deviation between price and fundamentals and reversion of price to these fundamentals. At least that's my conclusion for now.

happy to discuss

Quoting fti
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt. Since the late 70s and into the millinium. Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few, The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow...
  • #56,752
  • Dec 22, 2016 1:06am Dec 22, 2016 1:06am
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Quote
Enough Is Enough
in FX Spot dancing for this year. All Squared: Green. However hard to stop enjoying it... high time for Reflection, Relaxation and Rollcall. Do not Outsmart YourOwnSelf. So, pause. Thank you for friendly company and see you all in 2017.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,753
  • Edited 5:01am Dec 22, 2016 2:19am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting Exnav
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSLMN6g_Od4 {quote} in FX Spot dancing for this year. All Squared: Green. However hard to stop enjoying it... high time for Reflection, Relaxation and Rollcall. Do not Outsmart YourOwnSelf. So, pause. Thank you for friendly company and see you all in 2017. Best regards, Exnav
STOL

can write 3000 pages how its done.
or
its not difficult.
pull yoke climbs and yaws, and don't forget to kick the fR. otherwise suspended animation.
And don't forget to unzip. it also needs to breath. eeeeer the g suit,not the J suit hor.


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regards
  • #56,754
  • Edited 4:15pm Dec 22, 2016 2:38pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting Custos
I think you are generally right about the technical analysis bit, but I don't think market structure and so on is the answer. Trying to outsmart other traders' behaviour also seems to be a fool's game. In the long-term the behaviour is too erratic to make a working strategy out of it. What prevails in the long-term seems to be fundamentals and specifically an initial deviation between price and fundamentals and reversion of price to these fundamentals. At least that's my conclusion for now. happy to discuss {quote}
Hi, welcome to the thread.

I been thinking, what is there to discuss.
Anyway, ok discussion. Christmas gift.
FREE to download. PRAY to use.

Actually "I been thinking" is not true. Fact is some one asked me tell you.
I cannot tell you who it was, because i couldn't see his face.


fundamentals vs technicals.

tradition & training.
---------------------
Some of us chinese write the word fly this way.飛. Its thousands years old tradition. Some chinese these days writes it this way.飞. Its different. Althought its different , it doesn't makes em , unchinese. Only lazy to finish all the brush strokes. I still write it the traditional way. The reason is because dad always taught me that, lazyness have no future.Some are born lazy. These have no hope.Some are trained lazy. These have no brlame.
Some peeps told me to follow up with developments. So i told them abbreviation is useful, ETA is suppose to mean Estimated Time of Arrival. But if i sent them this abbrevation, it means ET has Arrived. And if i tell you i am GAY, it means I am happy and feeling carefree. It doesn't mean I am EXOTIC homosexual.

best practise protocol
----------------------
By training, when i have fixed bayonet. When i thrust bayonet, I also simultaneously fire a shot. Some people may feel that doing that is a waste of ammo. The purpose of firing the shot is meant to free the bayonet from the carcass. Although mostly the carcass would probably be dead already. By training is called a double tap. I rather be sure than have em jump up and his bayonet up my arse.

facilities.
-----------
Some of us are born with only ears.
And because they are blind. They shoot at any sounds of movement.
Those of us not born blind.
When we hear rattling bushes we look, see moving bushes and we shoot.
Some of us, are endowed with the additional sense of feel.
When we hear rattling bush, we look, and because we can feel the winds rattling the bush we not shoot at the waving bush.

happy?

ok market structure.
------------------0----
One can only have markets, when there is a trading structure of buyers and sellers.(Some may have camels)

Some markets have additional structure known as middleman who tax both buyer and seller.
And the buyer always wondering why he always buying at higher price.
And seller wondering why always selling at lower price. Who makes the moneies?These not traders , they are suckers.

Then there is the cartel structured markets. Only warlords and fools trades there. warlords always wins.

any questions?

regards

oOOps, , i forgot tell about the DUCKS.
to understand, read thread 3o00 pages+.If you can find where the thread branched.

https://www.youttbe.com/watch?v=l2BjREmZFlU
  • #56,755
  • Dec 22, 2016 3:59pm Dec 22, 2016 3:59pm
To understand this , you will need very good analysis. or interpretation.
https://www.youuube.com/watch?v=26N0lAg5CO0

regards
  • #56,756
  • Edited Dec 23, 2016 2:08am Dec 22, 2016 11:26pm | Edited Dec 23, 2016 2:08am
Hi from my understanding of the market structure, top tier MM can see the congregate book, and they know which orders belongs to which MM. MM is in the business of making money from the spread and a little scalp money. They have a general gauge of the market by looking at the paper and also whether customers is hitting them on bid or ask.

For example, when customers sell, MM will buy only the amount they think they can offload, means the MM can see the buy stop above the current price and they can shade the price up to offload. If they see no buy stop to offload, boy it will be a strong trend, and the MM will only accept order they are able to offload and shade lower quickly. That is the reason why impulse move happen, MM is moving quickly so not many people can hit his price. They are not there to stand against an oncoming train. When sell flow is big, MM quickly offload to other MM by hitting others bid, so the effect ripple through all the tier and price will continue to be shaded down until counter party coming in, where MM will have two way flow again.

So in OTC market, price do not necessarily go down when seller is greater than buyers at one particular price level, price can go up if MM think their position can be offload, so they know the market.

Sometimes the market dont have a clear direction and MM see the buy limit and sell limit. If the limit order is bigger than stop orders, MM know this is the high- low boundary, they wont take orders that they cant offload, so they will shade within the limit orders.

Also when the trend is up, customers are buying from MM, When MM see there are no stop orders to fuel the movement, a sure way to get more business is shade the price down. This is because every buyers will have the sell stop beneath the current price. That is why when there is always retraces among a trend.

In essence every price movement has 50/50 chance to continue or reverse, as we cant see the order book and flow, we can only observe price movement and adjust accordingly. Likewise, past support and resistance do not provide directional bias, we can only use it as a gauge of possible activity area. Besides the fundamental backdrop is also different.

The price is like a pendulum, it swing to one extreme to the other, just like a trader emotion.
This is my understanding after reading master posts and a little bit of my thinking, I hope that I didnt provide incorrect knowledge.
  • #56,757
  • Edited 4:09am Dec 23, 2016 3:25am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Hi from my understanding of the market structure, top tier MM can see the congregate book, and they know which orders belongs to which MM. MM is in the business of making money from the spread and a little scalp money. They have a general gauge of the market by looking at the paper and also whether customers is hitting them on bid or ask. For example, when customers sell, MM will buy only the amount they think they can offload, means the MM can see the buy stop above the current price and they can shade the price up to offload. If they see no buy...
your master , he is not wrong. but is lots deeper.hahahahaha Your master cannot even walk properly now. Anyway self praise is very disgraceful. Not master, is friend.
your thinking i try redirect.

Tier 1 mm's can see his trade book. same as everyone, also he has a order book, where customers orders him do this do that for me.
When top tier mms trades with one another, he's in fact telling the other what his book is doing by his transactions. So roughly every one knows whats doing in mrkets in the now.

MMs can see market action , only if he is not heavily biased by other INDICATORS. Otherwise can also be blind as a bat. But market will teach him very quickly, what he must do keep his job.

Another thing you need ponder about is that you said"So in OTC market, price do not necessarily go down when seller is greater than buyers at one particular price level."
This can only be true if you not consider the mm as part of the market. In fact the mm in essence is the market.

For example , there is big seller in market. so if demand is less that the supply coming in, markets will, go down yes?
But if the mm absorbed the selling and takes the short into his book. Isn't that demand? So if that happen , will the markets still go down?
mms are part of the market. In fact mms are the backbone of the markets.

Think and see if this is true.

regards

just to add a little.
BUT you must NEVER be rigid to believe that mms will absorb market in his book always.If its advantages for his book to allow it free fall, he will also do, if required. its nice have steak for dinner, otherwise ducks also is ok.
hahahaha 1 old big boss told me once. you cannot have that everyday. your bill is too high. Some days have a duck.That was heavy artillery so i took a duck, asked him, the excess, i will pay for it, no problem but he didn;t accept. i not know who paid. Santa!!
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  • #56,758
  • Dec 23, 2016 7:25am Dec 23, 2016 7:25am
Quoting fti
{quote} your master , he is not wrong. I
lo lo love Barbarettes....

Remember folks we are followers...........especially so at this season...

Have a peaceful holiday season FTI........ extra hugs for Christmas...

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Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,759
  • Edited 11:33am Dec 23, 2016 10:43am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} lo lo love Barbarettes.... Remember folks we are followers...........especially so at this season... Have a peaceful holiday season FTI........ extra hugs for Christmas... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nud2TQNahaU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4--Lkb_Oldo Alex
Ahhhh thank you belly much.
{hugs} Alex.

eeer can some one check the chimney, Phils either fishing maybe he stuck at chimney?
hahahahahaha yo hoho. ai ya all the rooftop command do s.

Merry Christmas soon.

regards

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  • #56,760
  • Dec 23, 2016 11:41pm Dec 23, 2016 11:41pm
Yes sir,
Understood, perhaps I didnt express my thought clearly enough. As there are many limit / stop orders clustered at every price level, and MMs can see it. MM job is to shade price to these level to generate business, thus the chart pattern form, however, as new orders coming in at different price level, if the orders is large enough, it will change the course of price movement, and we can only know from the changing PA, thus nimbleness is required.

Sometimes when there is no strong directional trend. And MM book is large so customers can sell and sell and MM can stomach all the orders (which in fact is also a form of market demand) and offload later. However, if they are holding long position and there are suddenly a huge influx of sell orders coming in, which is bigger than MM book, MMs will quickly offload to the market, those slow will get caught in the run, and then CB will give them parachute by offloading their position at the MM average price.

I think this relate to the corn feeding story, when MM formed a range and everyone see it ,many will try to sell the top, buy the bottom, and also breakout traders waiting at the sideline, so stops will be stacking outside the range, and then volatility will be play to trip them all.
So for example if buy stops are filled, and there are no new fuel carry through, the price will drop and drop as buyers panic and new sellers capitalize on the hunt, all those breakout buyers become ducks.

As MM hold short position in their book after filling buy stops, pro MM can try to hold all the position to a point where they think it is good to take profit before more buyers coming in. thus a temporary range (balance) before another leg depends on whether there are more buyers or sellers.

Sir, Have u tried some good quality probiotics? The gut is the second most important organ in the body besides the brain, so all the microbe that live there have lots of functions. After much medicine and cigarette usage, perhaps it can do wonders for your body.
https://draxe.com/probiotics-benefit...s-supplements/

I remember my mentor once taught me, when times of misfortune and hardship, when I feel like giving in, I must be firm and tell myself, Not Today! This work wonders for me and things slowly gets better.
Merry Christmas to u and your family!
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