Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

FROM AVA TRADE

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

There are two main approaches to analyse the market during trading sessions, and both are popular among traders. One is called Technical Analysis, and predicts changes in the market based on past occurrences, market tendencies and behavior. Another one is Fundamental Analysis, which focuses on current events very closely, in order to try and predict how the market will turn.

When doing fundamental analysis, a trader studies the overall state of the economy, concentrating mainly on elements closely related to his trade. The research focuses on financial events including those that are remotely related but yet could affect the trade. Political, social and general events can all have a significant influence on the markets.

Why Conduct Fundamental Analysis

This type of analysis is for traders who wish to dig deeper into the financial world. It takes a little more time than some traders are willing and able to invest, but should have positive outcomes if done properly. What stands behind any type of analysis is the wish to avoid surprises that might jeopardize the trader’s money. Therefore the deeper the research and analysis, the lower the chances to be taken by surprise. Some of the world’s top traders, who regularly appear on top rich lists employ fundamental analysis. This is defiantly a good track to follow.

We must emphasize that even when conducting a thorough fundamental analysis, there is no guarantee the trade will be successful. The nature of trading any instrument is its relationship to external factors that can impact it, and the fact that the market can dramatically change within minutes, flipping our speculations and changing the fate of our trades.

How to Start Fundamental Analysis

Once you have decided on fundamental analysis as your course of action, we recommend starting by familiarizing yourself with the instrument you wish to trade. All frequent events that can impact your instrument should be taken into account. You should find the right sources to get daily news and make sure to follow them by subscribing to their newsletter and logging on regularly.

One of the main tools of fundamental analysis is to closely follow the economic calendar. It is crucial for a trader to familiarize himself with upcoming financial events involving influential players in the financial arena, such as treasuries, banks etc. One should learn which events are relevant to his trading market, and then detect how to prepare for those events.

An example to the importance of fundamental analysis can be found with the monthly US unemployed report, called the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP usually affects the USD rate, which may lead to changes in the value of other instruments, such as gold, crude oil and others. Before the NFP is announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, traders speculate on the content of the declaration, and based on that calculate their trades. This is called fundamental analysis.

To begin employing fundamental analysis, every trader should find a number of informative sources, which will provide him with knowledge that will help him with fundamental analysis, thus assisting and improving his trades. We invite you to check out our blog, which updates on a daily basis with crucial data relevant to all instruments.


COMMENTS FROM Benjaminis: NOTE !!!

My Fundamental Analysis uses all of the above HOWEVER My Money Flow Method takes FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS to a New Level and THUS gives me an EDGE in my Forex Trading. I can teach you that EDGE and as explained many times in this Money Flow Method and Risk Management thread the MOVEMENTS of FUNDS in the Trillions of Dollars each day causes the values of each of the Asset Classes to change and knowing how one Asset Class changing in VALUE affects another Asset Class gives you the Trend. "The Trend Is Your Friend"

https://dailyreckoning.com/nomi-prin...y+Reckoning%29

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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for only the second time in a decade by .25 basis points the day after our interview. Many saw this move as a reflection of Fed officials having confidence in the U.S economy and what might be signs of rising inflation. Europe, in the meantime, has been left scratching its head in a perplexed wonder of how it should react.

One year ago, Prins’ was out in front of the December 2015 rate hike in which she firmly believed other central banks would be forced to react. This time, The Daily Reckoning got the exclusive on what she believes is next on the financial horizon and what specifically might be in store for the Eurozone.
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Nomi Prins at Checkpoint Charlie, in Berlin.
The Daily Reckoning (DR): The U.S just raised interest rates – what reaction do you see coming from Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB)?
Nomi Prins: The ECB won’t act as it had last year, it won’t react immediately by cutting rates. What is most likely to come from the ECB this round is an expansion of quantitative easing operations (QE) in which more money is pumped into the system.

It is also likely that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates – the central bank is one of the only major coordinated banks that operates at the same level of the Federal Reserve and remains independent in action. It is also one of the very few central banks that has not acted by cutting rates, so far, in the wake of the financial crisis. The BoE now believes that they have the room to cut rates.

If the global markets pattern of turmoil is to be replicated in similar form from last year, they’ll be inclined to act. From there, depending on how bad things get following the market shakeup after the Fed’s action, the BoE will be forced to extend, if not expand, its own UK version of QE.

DR: The European Union has come to a very difficult crossroads economically and politically. What is to come for the EU and the European Central Bank?
Nomi Prins: The EU as an institution is going to continue its trend of cracking and progressively getting worse. The current near term reality for everyday people is that their economic future will not match what quantitative easing (along with zero interest rate policy) has done equal to what banks have been given.

People can clearly see that those corporations are being given considerable financial and policy-oriented assistance, while the everyday worker is being left behind. They might not know specifically what to call the economic hit they’re feeling, but they certainly understand they’re worse off.
EU member states will look for more beneficial relationships in order to support their individual economies. Though it will take a longer time, there will be a considerable shift in power underway within economic trade and geopolitical relationships. This will also be seen within the ECB as it continues to struggle to react to economic and political shifts in the region.

DR: What is to come economically and politically for 2017? What are you watching?
Nomi Prins: In the United States, Donald Trump will be the major story. If the infrastructure plan promised on the campaign, that has now been envisioned by many, is to actually take place it could spur economic growth globally. But that will remain to be seen for some time.
Even if a massive stimulus of infrastructure spending were to take place, it is seemingly a flawed strategy to begin with in regards to budgets and overall impact to a real main street economy.

The biggest moves will be political. It is important to watch the speed and direction in which a president Trump is able to move forward with international alliances. These relations will impact trade, currency and capital flows outside of the U.S. While they were already set in motion during what can be described as an ongoing financial crisis, it will be furthered under a Trump administration.

People in other countries are going to react to government actions, and inaction. Expect a Europe that will remain economically and politically crippled. More elections in Europe will bring about more economic shocks, and further stress.
In the same breath, China will continually get bad press amongst the mainstream media outlets but carry on its momentum toward furthering its position as a global leader. We saw that with its inclusion at the International Monetary Fund in the special drawing rights (SDR) and we’ll see further status moves in the future.

The United Kingdom is undergoing minimal job numbers while the pound sterling continues to weaken. That trend should continue in 2017. Things for the UK will be rocky as they slowly head toward the Article 50 of exiting the European Union. Theresa May has indicated that all of the strategy and government leadership planning will be made public around March of 2017.
The impact on the UK and the EU will be made more clear then. The public will have a greater understanding of whether the EU will be kind to the UK or set out to make an example out of those members that choose to leave. In the meantime, the UK will begin to forge new relationships in order to be hedged for BREXIT uncertainty.

DR: As the International Monetary Fund continues to surface as a global influencer what is your impression on its influence for 2017?
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...6-768x1024.jpg
News monitor on the street in Berlin, Germany. EU counterparts highly concerned about IMF and Lagarde’s trial.

Nomi Prins: The IMF has been focused on a rising dollar and emerging markets not being able to pay back debts relative to a strengthening dollar. If the Fed policy of raising rates continues to be a policy for the future and a strengthening of the U.S dollar continues, this debt burden will on EM will continue to press down on the global economy.

Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, will be found guilty for criminal charges linked to her misuse of public funds during her time as France’s finance minister. This very well could force her out of the post that she had just entered in February for her second five-year term. Similar to Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s scandal and resignation from the IMF, the move could prove to be a destabilizing factor to the IMF and the organization’s ability to participate in government bailout activities.

If she does step down from the head of the IMF, does the Fund select someone more friendly to U.S policy? Does it just go away? The coming weeks and days into 2017 will give very early signals as to what to expect.


DR: Finally, how do you see the Fed responding for 2017? After this December 2016 rate hike, where is Yellen looking?
Nomi Prins: On December 16 of last year, the financial headlines swirled that four quarter point increases would be on the horizon for 2016. Instead, the reality was that we had one. This time, they are saying even less. The signaled expectation from the Fed is that three rate moves are to be anticipated.
Technically speaking, there is no reason to trust anything that they say. After getting one rate hike from a Fed that forecast four moves, it is clear that nothing from the Fed is known. It shows that Yellen and those running the Fed are not really sure of anything.
Regards,

The Wrap Up - Nightly

I am going to share again my post of the other day because it is so very powerful.

Benjaminis

Enjoy !!!

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2016/1...e-of-mind.html

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How to Trade With Peace of Mind
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fztkgXsOb...ccessPeace.jpg
I love the idea of success as peace of mind. It's being able to look yourself in the mirror and know that you've done the best you can, that you're not perfect, but that you're continually learning and improving.

Some traders trade to not lose and so they never really win. Other traders cannot accept the wins they achieve and have to keep trading and keep trading until they eventually lose. Neither group achieves the peace of mind that comes from focusing on the process of development rather than the recent outcome of performance.

Thanks to a savvy trader for passing along this Harvard Business Review article on goal-setting. The article makes clear that the way in which we set goals greatly impacts the probability of our success and the mindset we're likely to come away with. For example, research suggests that 41% of items on people's to-do lists never get done. The average professional has 150 tasks to accomplish at any one time. It's difficult to reach a point of peace of mind when you're continually trying to keep up with expanding demands.

The article stresses the importance of keeping goal-setting flexible and doable. Flexible means revising goals at intervals: for example, setting monthly goals rather than annual ones. Doable means that both the number of goals and their difficulty be set in such a way as to set us up for success rather than frustration. Many big goals can be broken down into a sequence of smaller ones that create an ongoing sense of progress and momentum.

One exercise I recently discussed with traders is to define each day one thing in two categories that will be accomplished to make the day a productive, successful one. Those categories include your most important goal for your trading and your most important goal for your personal life. The trading goal is taken from your most recent performance and involves either building on a recent strength/success or correcting a recent mistake or shortcoming. The personal goal involves building into your day some activity that generates happiness, fulfillment, energy, and/or closeness to others.

So each day, you're exercising some function to become better in your work and to become better as a person. Over time, the accumulation of small goals creates large changes. The idea is to make each day a win, regardless of the P/L of the moment. That creates peace of mind, and peace of mind frees us up to trade with open minds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

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Is India the Next Venezuela?
India, the world’s largest democracy, is surrounded by banana republics as the accepted narrative has it: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, and Afghanistan. The situation in the Middle East and in Africa is considered yet worse.
There seems to be a lot to celebrate about India. Its democracy has been sustained over the 70 years following independence. The army has remained fully under civilian control. Today India is also seen as an information technology juggernaut. It is claimed to be the fastest growing large economy. India is the next China, so the story goes.

The reality is very different from the perception of those who only see India through the lens of the international media. India has a population of 1.34 billion people with a GDP of $1,718 per capita. Almost 50% of India’s citizens have no access to toilets, electricity or running water. 48% of children under the age of five are stunted, a percentage greater than in any other major country in the world.

Contrary to the perceptions created by the international media, if Africa were a country, it would actually look better than India with respect to these metrics. India has lower GDP per capita and a proportionately greater number of Indian children are exhibiting stunted growth.
As a second step in trying to understand India, it makes sense to split the population in two parts: the 25% that have benefited — directly or indirectly — from the internet and cheap telephony over the past three decades, and the remaining 75%, whose lifestyle is comparable to a medieval existence, almost animal-like.

For all intents and purposes, India is a banana republic, a wretched place of poverty and disease. The only difference between India and other well-recognized banana republics is that India has so far avoided overly negative headlines in the international media; Indian lobbies in the US and the UK work very hard to make India look good. As noted above, this mainly serves to prop up the self-esteem of NRIs.

It has become fashionable to compare India to China. This comparison seems extremely far-fetched. Chinese GDP per capita is more than five times higher, and is growing more than four-times faster than India’s in absolute terms. If India keeps growing at the recent high rate of 7.5% and China at a mere 6.3%, it will take India more than 135 years to catch up with China’s economic output in absolute terms.

People who have been concerned about the demonetization policy have repeatedly asked me if India is the next Venezuela. My response was “I wish it were.” On per capita basis, Venezuela’s GDP is more than seven times that of India. Venezuelans fight when they go hungry. Indians are too weak to even leave their homes. Indians should be fighting, particularly the poor, who have always got a very bad deal.
When India becomes the next Venezuela, which hopefully won’t take longer than three decades, one would actually have cause to celebrate.

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Almost half of Indians have no choice but to defecate in the open. What looks like a simple problem has proved impossible for India’s government to solve. The government nevertheless wants to send probes to Mars and make India the first cashless economy. In due course, Modi will get swept away by India’s realities. The problem is that whoever succeeds him, will very likely be worse. A military general perhaps?

Photo credit: Keystone / AP

Millennia of human progress in terms of economic transactions have been wiped out overnight. People have been forced to go back to barter.

Demonetization Continues
More than 90% of the banned banknotes have reportedly already been deposited in banks. This is widely hailed as a victory of the government. As Mumbai-based economist Mithun B. Dutta explained in a note, the reality is the exact opposite. He argues that demonetization would only have made sense if a large part of the banned currency had never made it into bank deposits.

Up until recently, the banned currency was selling for a 20% discount to its face value. Not only has this discount disappeared in recent days, but the remaining banned bills are now trading at premiums of up to 10%.

The poorest people lack the connections to deposit their cash and get it back out. The queues outside bank branch offices have continued and the mood is increasingly desperate. Businesses are closing, with many too damaged financially to be able to ever restart again. Poor people are losing their jobs.
Food prices are down by 25% to 50%, leaving farmers without the funds needed to support the next crop planting cycle. Shops remain empty, as discretionary spending is put on hold. Many businesses have suffered sharp declines in sales. Wheat sowing is said to be down sharply as well.


Who cares when one has problems of one’s own? This half-dead old woman serves as an example for more than 75% of India’s population. She cannot even write her own name, but is expected to learn to use plastic cards. For Modi she does not count if she isn’t paying taxes and isn’t part of the formal economy; but it is Modi who will eventually be thrown out.

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...or-people.jpeg

Desperate poor people, whose pain is not reflected in any news or statistics.

Photo credit: Praveen Kumar/HT

Members of the salaried middle class, Modi’s biggest supporters, are slowly starting to face the pinch as well. When they went to their banks on December 1, 2016 to collect part of their salaries, they had to rub shoulders with the poorest of the country, for whom they have deep-rooted disgust. And then they had to go back home empty-handed or with only part of the cash they had wanted to withdraw.
They are still hoping that their bank accounts will be unfrozen after the demonetization deadline on December 31 passes. They will soon realize that their accounts will stay frozen, as simple math shows there is no other possibility. Modi will have to make a new announcement on December 31 to keep his social engineering project on track with yet another patch-up job, and to keep people’s hopes up.

There has been a significant surge in spontaneous outbreaks of violence across the country. Indian police are not sufficiently trained and lack the competence to keep a material increase in social unrest under control.

Conclusion
No one has explained yet how the currency demonetization policy will lead to less corruption. Most of the outstanding cash has already made it into bank accounts, but despite that, the queues at bank branch offices seem to be never-ending. It is the unbanked, the poorest people, who are most likely to have failed to deposit their currency and get their cash back out.

The government clearly has the intention of keeping bank accounts frozen after the official deadline of 31st December 2016. The economy will remain stalled at an enormous human cost. Modi is losing his control over his own party. He has isolated himself in a cocoon, surrounded by yes-men; but the middle class, which has so far considered itself to occupy the moral high ground, is starting to experience cash-related problems as well now.

At the same time, the political opposition is fragmented and weak. Modi probably cannot even imagine losing power, believing himself to be indispensable. If he sees his support dwindling, India could easily end up being pushed toward outright autocratic rule.

To properly understand all the undercurrents, it is best to consider first principles. India is an extraordinarily irrational, tribal and superstitious place. Despite the country’s long association with Britain, which by now has lasted over 300 years, it has failed to adopt the concept of reason. India and its institutions as they exist today were constructed by the British. It was inevitable that they would crumble, as India lacks the will and human capabilities needed to maintain them.

A society lacking in rationality cannot be expected to be able to differentiate between right and wrong. It cannot have respect for the individual, or develop moral instincts. Its people will be lacking in empathy and compassion, as demonstrated by the indifference of members of the middle class to the suffering of their desperately poor fellow citizens.

When such people are given western education, it merely sits in their minds as yet another belief system. Evidently, they don’t even understand that an ethical society cannot possibly be compatible with a government reneging on the contract that is printed on its currency.
Even poor people suffer in silence, or even worse, are fighting among themselves. They too lack the necessary understanding of moral principles to feel revulsion when they are mistreated. Instead of directing their anger at those responsible for their plight, they take out their frustrations on the nearest persons weaker than themselves.

With the passage of time, Indian institutions are necessarily mutating to accommodate India’s irrational culture. Culture cannot be changed through education alone, and changing it takes a very long time. India is likely to disintegrate at some point, fragmenting into tribal units or several smaller countries. Institutional decay has been underway for the past 70 years, but with Modi as a catalyst, its pace is picking up. The story of many countries in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and large parts of South America is quite similar.

What should investors do? Ultimately India is likely to turn out to be a terrible investment destination. Indian savers should consider moving their wealth abroad. Indians are still permitted to transfer $250,000 per year, but eventually capital controls are bound to be instituted. Keeping in mind that Indian savers are already paying premiums of 30% or more to purchase US dollars or British pounds, there seems hardly a good reason for foreigners to send money to India.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...balance-sheets

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Italian banks need at least 52 billion euros ($54 billion) to clean up their balance sheets, much more than the rescue package proposed Monday by the government.

The shortfall is an estimate of how much lenders would have to increase loan-loss provisions to allow for the sale of bad debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It includes the 8 billion euros of provisions UniCredit SpA has said it will add before selling 18 billion euros of its worst loans and uses that ratio as a proxy for the gap at other banks. The total also includes the 5 billion euros Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA has been struggling to raise in recent months.
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The Italian government asked parliament this week to increase the public borrowing limit by as much as 20 billion euros to potentially backstop Monte Paschi and other lenders. The rescue package needs to be closer to 30 billion euros to solve Italy’s bad-debt crisis, according to Paola Sabbione, a Milan-based analyst at Deutsche Bank AG. That conclusion assumes UniCredit and some other lenders can raise about 20 billion euros through capital markets, asset sales and profit retention -- leaving the government to fill the rest of the 52-billion-euro hole.

“Some of the publicly traded banks can probably raise some of the funds needed for a cleanup, including Monte Paschi,” said Sabbione, who has covered Italian banks for the past decade. “So the government would have to plug in the rest. But still, at this level, it won’t do the full job.”
UniCredit Provisions

UniCredit, the nation’s largest lender, plans to increase loan-loss provisions to 75 percent for nonperforming loans with the lowest chances of recovery and 40 percent for two other categories considered less dire. The increased writedowns will help the Milan-based lender sell about a third of its bad loans to asset manager Fortress Investment Group.

UniCredit is planning to raise 13 billion euros of new equity funding to cover the increased provisions as well as other restructuring costs and to improve its capital ratio. The company’s shares have jumped 15 percent since the Dec. 13 announcement, giving analysts confidence the bank will have little trouble tapping investors for the funds.

Italian banks had 356 billion euros of bad loans at the end of June and 165 billion euros of provisions against them, according to the latest Bank of Italy data. To get the worst category to 75 percent provisioning and the rest to 40 percent, as UniCredit is doing, would take 52 billion euros.
The ECB has been pushing for reduction of bad loans at the 14 large Italian banks it directly supervises, which include UniCredit and Monte Paschi, Italy’s No. 3 lender. The 75 percent writedown on the worst type brings the value in line with what outside investors are paying for such distressed debt in recent sales, making the disposals more likely. While some bad-debt portfolios have been sold for about 25 percent of face value in recent years, some have gone for as low as 16 percent as Italy’s slow bankruptcy process makes recovery arduous, lowering the price investors are willing to pay.
Worst Shape

Four banks supervised by the ECB are in the worst shape, according to Nicolas Veron, a senior fellow with Bruegel, a Brussels-based research group. They are Monte Paschi, Banca Carige SpA, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca SpA. The government may have to put up money to help those with their capitalization and debt disposals, while other large banks will probably be able to access capital markets for the needed resources, Veron said.
“Nationalization is better than denial,” he said.

Once larger banks meet their capital shortfalls and sell some bad loans, the ECB probably will pressure the Bank of Italy, which supervises the rest of the nation’s lenders, to do the same with smaller firms, Veron said. The government would have to contribute capital to small banks that aren’t publicly traded, according to Veron and Sabbione.

Italy has shied away from intervention in its banks because new European Union rules require losses on junior bonds, which are widely held by retail investors, when government money is injected. Spain, which cleaned up its banks in 2012 by funding an asset-management company to take over bad loans, imposed losses on junior creditors as a condition for the EU funds it tapped. The country then reimbursed retail investors who’d bought the bonds without realizing their risk.

Italy has pressed healthier banks and insurance companies to fund an asset-management company for bad loans. The firm, Atlante, has fallen short of raising enough money to tackle all of the worst debt sitting on balance sheets.

Italy could follow Spain’s example by setting up a government-backed fund, bail in junior debt as new rules require and refund retail investors. That could speed an Italian cleanup, according to an EU official who asked not to be identified. A new government next year would be more likely to carry out such a plan, the official said. Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who stepped down this month, has said he favors elections as soon as April.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ented-enablers

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Grant Williams is maybe one of the best analysts on the planet. His work, especially, in the gold sector, is truly second to none. If you haven’t watched/listened to “Nobody Cares” it is time well spent.

The central planners/central banksters, who answer to no one, have completely lost their minds. What has happened, beginning in 2008, has never been tried before in the history of the world. These maniacs, who are in charge of our economies and finance, are literally making up the rules and changes as they go along. If a new plan is rolled out and it doesn’t work, try it again and keep trying until it works or try a slight “twist” to the plan and see if that works.

Quantitative Easing is just such a program. These criminal maniacs had to do something as their entire criminal network was imploding.

As the money-changers were about to lose everything and wind up in the dust bin of history, governments around the world would have followed suit as the enablers of these currency schemes. Why do we see people standing up for BREXIT, Trump and noise being made in France and other nation states around Europe to take back their country from the current status quo? Since governments had made a deal with the devil and allowed these criminals to run the nations currency system, and by proxy, the banking system and economy, these corrupt governments had no choice but to go along with the latest piece of the puzzle in the ever expanding ponzi scheme. Of course, we, the citizens of these nations, are the ones that suffer with higher taxes, a complete take over by the banking cabal and loss of sovereignty due to the fact the banking cabal needs our labor (taxes) to fund their crimes. The corrupt governments must go along with these schemes as the central banksters set up the crime syndicate in a way that allows them, the banksters, to make their own rules and answer to no one. Not CONgress/parliament, Prime Minister/President – no onehas authority over central banks and the banksters that operate these crime syndicates.

We have one last opportunity at reclaiming our sovereignty. The time is now and if nothing changes, citizens around the world, will be nothing more than an ATM for the banksters, hucksters and corrupt governments around the world. If the chains are not broken within the next few years we will be owned by the banksters. Look at what has happened in India and Venezuela with these governments forcing their citizens to stop using cash. When you can no longer conduct business with whom you wish, when you wish and without someone following your every breathe, you are a piece of property.

Mr. Williams does a masterful job of explaining how we arrived at this point. The only remaining question is – is it possible to get out if this situation without a revolution or world war? If you think the banksters are going to simply rollover and say “well, you guys are right, we have cheated you for almost 300 hundred years, you win, we will give back all the power we stole from you. Thanks for allowing us to rob you.” Never going to happen. If you don’t believe me, ask Abe Lincoln and John F. Kennedy.

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Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE




Criminal Banksters and Their Demented Enablers

Decided to place another US30 short. Actual running USD30 is almost hitting stop level.

1. US30
Volume: 100
Sold at: 19,973.50
Stop Loss: 20,535.00
Limit: 19,806.50
Floating P/L: +20.00

2. Floating P/L on the first US30 short: -600.00
3. USD/JPY hit limit target and made good profit. I'll look to place another sell order for 100 units on retraces.
4. XAU/USD foating P/L: +386.00

Account summary:
(first two days, risking less than 5% per trade, risk reward 1:2)

Ending Balance 50,371.50
Floating P/L -184.00
Equity 50,187.50

Good Day

You are doing very good and you have quickly understood the Money Flow Method. I will turn to discuss technical indicators over the next few days as I have also developed a model that is helpful for my trading.

Ask yourself today if we have Risk On or Risk Off ? When I trade I always have a station such as CNBC on so I can watch live events that occur.

Do you use SAR and Awesome Indicator with your indicators. FXCM UK allows you to design your indicators.

Later


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

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In early European trading, shares of Italy's third largest and most troubled bank were halted after crashing 17%, dropping to fresh all time lows, after the bank warned it is not only insolvent, but its liquidity could run out far sooner than expected.

BMPS shares initially dropped following yesterday's news that the €5 billion private sector rescue plan appeared to be a dead end, after only €500 million in new capital was said to have been lined up, coming far short of the targeted bogey. An analysis by Swedbank said that adverse reports about Paschi’s efforts to find private capital are “quite discouraging" and added that “it seems as if a government intervention comes closer by the day.” It also noted that that government intervention that also abides by BRRD (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive) rules will punish equity and junior bond holders, which is a major concern.


This was, however, compounded after Monte Paschi warned it expects to burn through around €11 billion euros of liquidity more quickly than previously forecast, according to a revised prospectus on the bank's website.

The world's oldest bank said it now expected its net liquidity position, currently standing at €10.6 billion, to turn negative after four months. This was a sharp deterioration from the most recent liquidity update just three days prior, when on Sunday the bank had forecast that a current net liquidity position would turn negative after 11 months under a number of assumptions. It said on Wednesday the position would be negative for 15 million euros on the 5th month and could worsen further to minus 740 million euros by the 12th month. This compares with the minus 100 million-euro level it forecast on Sunday for the 12th month.

The bank also noted that it had lost 11%, or €14 billion, of its total deposits from January to September 2016, and added that its liquidity levels would fall under the required level should it suffer another €10bn of deposit outflows under a “stress” scenario calculated by the European Central Bank. From the prospectus, as quoted by the FT:

The situation of the liquidity of the bank had progressively deteriorated until it reached, following the constitutional referendum of December 4, a time horizon of 29 days before which the bank would not be able to meet its liquidity requirements without seeking help from new interventions. That time horizon was calculated applying a stress situation where the bank saw an outflow of €10.3bn in a month.

However, just as the situation appeared terminally grim for the twice-bailed out bank, its shares soared briefly recovering all losses when moments ago Italy's upper house of parliament approved a government request to borrow up to €20 billion in new public debt to underwrite bailouts of the country's various troubled banks. The vote came just minutes after the lower house had also given its authorization for a hike in the national debt to cover an eventual intervention.

The twin votes clear the way for government action, possibly this week, and the result was a bout of optimism that Italy may just have kicked the can one more time, on expectations Monte Paschi would quickly request state funds to prevent it from collapse.

Amusingly, earlier in the day, Italy's Finance Minister Padon told lawmakers that the "Italian banking system was solid." Maybe it is for the next few months, and all it will cost taxpayers is another €20 billion in public debt.

We now await Germany's statement on what appears to be yet another government bailout of insolvent European banks.

Comments from Benjaminis: As we have been following this important EVENT RISK we now see where things stand and it is not good for the banks and it will develop as a major problem into next year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...-problem-china

Snippet:

It’s official: investors are now “all in” on this market rally.

According to Trim Tabs, between November 8th and December 5th, investors put $97.6 BILLION into US stock ETFs. To put this into perspective, for the ENTIRE year of 2016, they put just $61.5 billion.


This is the hallmark of a mania. And as usual, individual investors are walking into a catastrophe like lambs to the slaughter.
The $USD is currently above 103. This is a MASSIVE problem for the financial system, particularly China, the second largest economy in the world.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../GPC122016.png
If you don’t believe me, consider that China’s multi-TRILLION Dollar bond market broke last week.

Chinese bond yields soared and authorities halted trading in some futures contracts for the first time on Thursday, as a global bond-market selloff worsened a day after the Federal Reserve signaled a quicker pace of interest-rate increases next year.
Source: WSJ

This whole situation is beginning to feel a LOT like August 2015, right before China implemented a massive Yuan devaluation triggering a stock market meltdown. We believe another similar move is about to hit… catching 99% of investors off guard.

THIS WILL HIT BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Comments from Benjaminis: We are in very very dangerous territory now.

Extreme caution as the markets are preparing for major reversals for the reasons explained.

http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Good day Benjamin and thank you.

My perception for today is this:
1. Quiet day with no big news (related to our TradePlan currencies USD,Dow and Gold/Silver) =RISK ON
2. We can see unexpected moves on EUR/USD =RISK ON(spiked up suddenly out of the blue) and same thing on USD/JPY, dropped down. Money flows from USD into JPY currency. (which is good for our plan)
3. Other market currencies like EUR/USD acts as least probability (EUR gets stronger against USD DESPITE the Italy huge problem happening) = RISK ON

My interpretation suggests me today we have a RISK ON day. Everything is quiet and small unexpected spikes here and there.

I use SAR and pivot points. Never used awesome indicator, but I will research it just right now!

This means they have 'inside information' that the USD will hold it's ground ?
Perhaps they had their money in EU stocks and moved them to avoid the unavoidable crash of EUR maybe under parity with dollar.

Question is why they pick an US stock over Gold and Silver as they look to be the best bets right now?

Thank you for bringing this attention to us. "Currency War"

The Central Banks and their associates intervene to keep the price of Gold and Silver down This will finally change during 2017.

As for the US Equities as the US Bonds and others crashed after the election of Donald J. Trump insanity arrived and we have had a massive outflow of MONEY from Bonds world wide into Equities. There was no inside information. Read the last two articles posted from Zerohedge.

Please continue to post your observations as you did this morning.

Thank You


Benjaminis

You are most welcome and I appreciate your input here. We can all share and help each other during our trading.


Benjaminis

If you have the patience, it's not the only insightful news he posted, everything here helps alot with trading.
Im sure alot of people check this thread but they get scared of the wall of texts.
Its a shame not many people get involved as he puts so much effort into this.

Regards

I don't know much about economics. However, I believe I'm in the right place for knowledge hunt. I will do my best to contribute as well.

[цитата = BenjaminIs; 9370407] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...-problem-china Отрывок: Его официальное: инвесторы сейчас все об этом рынок ралли. Согласно триммеры, между 8 ноября и 5 декабря, инвесторы вложили $ 97,6 МЛРД на фондовых ETFs США. Для того, чтобы поставить это в перспективе, за весь год 2016, они поставили только $ 61,5 млрд. Это является отличительным признаком мании. И , как обычно, индивидуальные инвесторы идут в катастрофу , как ягнят на заклание. $ USD в настоящее время превышает 103. Это массивное проблема для финансовой системы, в частности в Китае, второй по величине экономики в мире. {} изображение Если вы не верите мне, считают , что Китаев мульти-ТРИЛЛИОНОВ рынок доллар облигаций сломал на прошлой неделе. Китайские доходность облигаций взлетела и власти приостановили торги в некоторых фьючерсных контрактов на первый раз в четверг, как глобальный рынок облигаций распродажи ухудшились день после того, как Федеральная резервная система сигнализирует более быстрый темп увеличения процентных ставок в следующем году. Источник: WSJ Вся эта ситуация начинает чувствовать себя очень похоже августа 2015 года, прямо перед тем Китай осуществил масштабную девальвацию юаня вызвав обвал фондового рынка. Мы считаем , что другой подобный шаг собирается поразить поймать 99% инвесторов врасплох. ЭТО ПЕРЕД HIT в конце января. Еще один кризис назревает время , чтобы подготовить сейчас. Лучший Стратег Привет Грэм Главный рынок Саммерс Phoenix Capital Research Комментарии от Benjaminis: Мы находимся в очень и очень опасной территории в настоящее время. Крайняя осторожность , поскольку рынки готовятся к основным развороты для пояснил причины. http://finviz.com/forex.ashx http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5 [/ цитата]
BenzhaminIs, a very interesting topic, learn a lot, thanks for the enlightenment! And the question is: How can I keep track of the time when the price of US stock ETFs will begin to fall? What the reversal signals or data exist? I understand that the time of overflow of money important to determine the cash flow?

I've read the articles and understood them.
My question is: Why this massive outflow of money into US equities and not into gold/silver? especially when gold/silver prices are down. (it looks obvious that prices will go up from 2017 and on).
My thought is: Money flow into US equities perhaps suggests that Investors sees very little risk in USD currency dropping anytime soon.

It's only my thought, there's a big chance I'm wrong. That's why I'm asking here.


EDIT: nevermind what I'm asking is nonsense. I looked at this:

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=etf

to find out I'm talking about HUUGE sectors not a single US equity.
I won't delete this post but everyone is free to ignore it please.
Thanks.

This might help you:
https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=etf