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The Paradox System

  • #6,961
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:48pm Dec 20, 2016 8:48pm
Quoting Clip75
{quote} Talk about a smaller screen. I have to take my son to the bus and I've written a plan so I'm monitoring my computer with Chrome remote on my iPhone. I can still see everything lol. Thanks Dove, I was gonna ask you what you think of Black Bull Markets in New Zealand and Global Prime in Australia. They both have raving reviews. {image}
Wait until the Surface Phone comes out early 2017. It should be a mobile phone that is capable of running full windows with software such as mt4.
  • #6,962
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:49pm Dec 20, 2016 8:49pm
Not sure if it's right but I'm waiting for the purple to cross white on the H2 before entering would love DB attachment too before entering long to upper bb. Parabolic Flip on H1.
  • #6,963
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:56pm Dec 20, 2016 8:56pm
Quoting Clip75
{quote} Hello Paradox7 You and I are in a dual right now. A paradox dual. I'm sure you will emerge the winner with more experience. Grab some popcorn and watch the fight guys. Haha
Hahahah man I don't know about this one now, this has ranged for quite a bit now that I feel it could go either way at this point.

Also think I should have definitely waited for a breakout, coulda sworn it would have been the down move though
  • #6,964
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:00pm Dec 20, 2016 9:00pm
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Hahahah man I don't know about this one now, this has ranged for quite a bit now that I feel it could go either way at this point.
Common man stick it out. I know it can go both ways now too but it's Christmas so let's have some fun. Note to self. Do not go for 40 pips with Romar running through centre of the market. I woulda sure got my 40 had romar been underneath on H2. I'm sticking to my guns though. Anybody in. God bless you all.

Edit: the most interesting part for me is that Dove knows exactly to probably 90% or more where the market is going and sits there laughing at us making our foolish decisions. One day I will be the Godfather too.
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,965
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:12pm Dec 20, 2016 9:12pm
Quoting Clip75
{quote} Common man stick it out. I know it can go both ways now too but it's Christmas so let's have some fun. Note to self. Do not go for 40 pips with Romar running through centre of the market. I woulda sure got my 40 had romar been underneath on H2. I'm sticking to my guns though. Anybody in. God bless you all. Edit: the most interesting part for me is that Dove knows exactly to probably 90% or more where the market is going and sits there laughing at us making our foolish decisions. One day I will be the Godfather too.
Oh I'll still stick with it don't worry May the best trader win

LOL that visual of Dove laughing at our idiotic mistakes had me busting out laughing
  • #6,966
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:47pm Dec 20, 2016 9:47pm
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Oh I'll still stick with it don't worry May the best trader win LOL that visual of Dove laughing at our idiotic mistakes had me busting out laughing
This really is the craziest situation I've seen so far. There is support for down and for up. Any other pros willing to call this one. It's so unsure. Dove knows but still sits there laughing at us. And you know why. Because the market is the biggest mind game ever and Dove will always hold you responsible to them because he knows the market is relentless. Merry Christmas Dana!!!!
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,967
  • Dec 20, 2016 10:19pm Dec 20, 2016 10:19pm
Quoting Clip75
{quote} This really is the craziest situation I've seen so far. There is support for down and for up. Any other pros willing to call this one. It's so unsure. Dove knows but still sits there laughing at us. And you know why. Because the market is the biggest mind game ever and Dove will always hold you responsible to them because he knows the market is relentless. Merry Christmas Dana!!!!
Let me give you a little lesson on instincts:

Human instincts are often wrong and you must learn to resist these feelings or will lose your money. The way probability works is important to trading but is different than your natural instincts will lead you to believe.

Example of how human intuition is wrong is the Monte Hall paradox. You are in a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is $1,000; behind the others, $1. You pick door No. 1, and the host (who knows the right answer) opens door No. 3, which has $1. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Should you switch your choice from Door No. 1 to Door No. 2? Most people would say no because their chance has not seemingly changed and Door No. 2 does not seem to offer any improvement in their chance of winning. People are more inclined to stay with their choice once made. Staying with your choice leaves you with a 1/3 chance of winning but changing to door No.2 increases your chances to 2/3. It is surprising and not at all intuitive but it has been shown to be true (hence the term "paradox"). As a trader you should learn what is true and re-train yourself to these truths while avoiding use of your natural human instinct. Why something works in trading is unimportant, that is an academic exercise for the curious; the fact that it works is all you need to know.

For many people it is hard to exit a losing trade and accept defeat. People who have been reasonably successful in their life would rather hang in there and work that defeat into a victory. This is a recipe for disaster in trading. After several disasters the aspiring trader then over reacts and starts exiting to soon. They want to exit a trade if there is any loss showing at all because the pain of past disasters puts them in a panic. Knowing how to trade means limiting your losers and giving your winners room to run.

Between you and Haris - one of you are going to lose and the reason is because both of you had entered between support and resistance with less then a 20 pip spread. And the reason was because you both did not take the time to really evaluate the market. but rushed into it without seeing the risk. There is a difference between intuition vs instincts. The breakout is going to make the difference.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #6,968
  • Edited 10:54pm Dec 20, 2016 10:38pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} Let me give you a little lesson on instincts: Human instincts are often wrong and you must learn to resist these feelings or will lose your money. The way probability works is important to trading but is different than your natural instincts will lead you to believe. Example of how human intuition is wrong is the Monte Hall paradox. You are in a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is $1,000; behind the others, $1. You pick door No. 1, and the host (who knows the right answer) opens door No. 3, which has...
Well said. For myself I am staying on the sidelines.

I will wait for the breakout.

God Bless you in the name of Jesus.

in Him.
  • #6,969
  • Dec 20, 2016 11:02pm Dec 20, 2016 11:02pm
Quoting TrueStoryfx
{quote} Well said. For myself I am staying on the sidelines. I will wait for the breakout. God Bless you in the name of Jesus. in Him.
Did you get in on the breakout down. Looking like it's holding support at the parabolic. I'm still hanging on to door number one and for only one reason. Me and Paradox7 are in a dual and it's just a little fun. Might be a good buy now. Patience is key and I continue to learn from every trade.
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,970
  • Dec 20, 2016 11:21pm Dec 20, 2016 11:21pm
I already know that Shinny bought at the parabolic SAR attached. That's what makes him part of the elite.
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,971
  • Edited 3:32am Dec 21, 2016 12:44am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting Clip75
{quote} Did you get in on the breakout down. Looking like it's holding support at the parabolic. I'm still hanging on to door number one and for only one reason. Me and Paradox7 are in a dual and it's just a little fun. Might be a good buy now. Patience is key and I continue to learn from every trade.
Lol man I just played it safe and exited at the parabolic and took my 20 pips. This was just too long
  • #6,972
  • Dec 21, 2016 1:25am Dec 21, 2016 1:25am
Adjustment to plan:

Short: I'll be waiting for the parabolic to flip on the 2H before i risk any money on a trade down. Will check back in later on.
  • #6,973
  • Dec 21, 2016 4:50am Dec 21, 2016 4:50am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Lol man I just played it safe and exited at the parabolic and took my 20 pips. This was just too long
Oh man I would have won. I need to stop letting FEAR take over my trading and confidence. Mindset is everything
  • #6,974
  • Dec 21, 2016 4:58am Dec 21, 2016 4:58am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Oh man I would have won. I need to stop letting FEAR take over my trading and confidence. Mindset is everything
Yes sir. I stuck with door number one just for a little holiday fun. Bad trade or not Dove did say 80% plus. I've won the last 8 trades in a row so it musta been time. Congratulations!!!
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,975
  • Dec 21, 2016 5:19am Dec 21, 2016 5:19am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Oh man I would have won. I need to stop letting FEAR take over my trading and confidence. Mindset is everything
And having the "I would have won" attitude, the blasé approach to trading, won't help improve your mind set. That kind of attitude is for gambling and horses, it doesn't belong in professional trading. And to be sure, fear comes because of that gambling mentality - fear and elation don't have a role in a full time traders day, you just have to do your job, work your shift, however you want to put it, and then either gain a measure of satisfaction that you traded your plan, or learn from your mistakes.

There's a lot of "lolling" and "winning" in the thread right now, which says people think its all a joke or a punt. Or people are trading through pride - and we all know what happens with and after pride.

I love a joke and a laugh, but always remember trading is a deadly serious business. There isn't a business in the world where, lets say a factory puts a percentage of their whole outfit on the line each day. Only in trading do we do this.

I have 2 kids and a wife - and I consider myself the custodian of their money, I'm their Hedge Fund Manager if you like, and there is nothing more important to me than their future security.

I'm not having a go or trying to beat down on anyone - just always keep in mind we don't open trades or keep them open through pride or competition, we just do our job to the best we can regardless of what anyone else does or thinks. Trade your plan!

Warmest Seasonal Regards

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #6,976
  • Dec 21, 2016 5:20am Dec 21, 2016 5:20am
Date: 21/12/2016 Time 11:00 GMT
Session: London
News: 15:30 High level news Crude Oil US

Daily:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
Check List:
Last MACD : down
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Red
Last DB Attachment: 124.084
Fibo up or down: Down
Notes: Market is moving down towards parabolic support

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 122.225
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR Just swapped to resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: up declined and nearly crossing
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Red down
Last DB Attachment: 122.099
Last Sar Attachment: 122.099 with the Db
Fibo up or down: Up
Notes: Market had been very tight between the horseman. Purple is now below EMA.
Market moving up to resistance of purple and would be a good entry for a short.


1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: down
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Red
Fibo up or down: Down
Notes: Market had bounced off the lower BB. So likely to go back to EMA or the ofther BB.

Final Notes for all three charts: 2h and 1h do not agree in that Fibos are different. So consolidation. However, both show a down trend.

Entry: Will go short at a point of resistance. On the 2H this is likely to be purple and on the 1H it may be EMA will also put market above purple on H2.
Long:
Notes for readjustments: Check to see if the news at 15:30 changes anything.

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  • #6,977
  • Dec 21, 2016 5:39am Dec 21, 2016 5:39am
Quoting shinny
{quote} And having the "I would have won" attitude, the blas approach to trading, won't help improve your mind set. That kind of attitude is for gambling and horses, it doesn't belong in professional trading. And to be sure, fear comes because of that gambling mentality - fear and elation don't have a role in a full time traders day, you just have to do your job, work your shift, however you want to put it, and then either gain a measure of satisfaction that you traded your plan, or learn from your mistakes. There's a lot of "lolling" and "winning"...

You're right, I was just trading according to my plan and then exited too soon. I knew it would go down, just have to work on mindset more. I will learn from it as I look at every trade as an experience and education, not just fun and games for me. But like Dove has said in his training you should have fun and love your trading business as well, not to say that a "duel" may have been a bit over the top.

Always appreciate and respect your input Shaun, hope you have a wonderful holiday with your family
  • #6,978
  • Dec 21, 2016 6:20am Dec 21, 2016 6:20am
Quoting Clip75
{quote} Did you get in on the breakout down. Looking like it's holding support at the parabolic. I'm still hanging on to door number one and for only one reason. Me and Paradox7 are in a dual and it's just a little fun. Might be a good buy now. Patience is key and I continue to learn from every trade.
I stayed out. ROMAR was resistance for for both H1 and H2, waiting for a more clear signal. (would not buy because of this)
  • #6,979
  • Dec 21, 2016 6:31am Dec 21, 2016 6:31am
Quoting shinny
{quote} And having the "I would have won" attitude, the blas approach to trading, won't help improve your mind set. That kind of attitude is for gambling and horses, it doesn't belong in professional trading. And to be sure, fear comes because of that gambling mentality - fear and elation don't have a role in a full time traders day, you just have to do your job, work your shift, however you want to put it, and then either gain a measure of satisfaction that you traded your plan, or learn from your mistakes. There's a lot of "lolling" and "winning"...
Your absolutely right. I got a little carried away "in the moment" seeing that we bought and sold very close to each other and in the holiday spirit. No disrespect meant to the thread. Appreciate the words of advice as this is not a game and am slowly making a transition to full time trader. The dual was my input and not Paradox7 so my fault. I had a little chuckle over it.
Behind the curtain's mystic fold The glowing future lies unrolled!!
  • #6,980
  • Edited 8:32am Dec 21, 2016 6:42am | Edited 8:32am
I missed my short target of 2H market hitting purple and got in slightly late at 122.219. Set my TP to 20.

I realise I made an error of judgement. Technically the charts are indicating consolidation. The fibs are not the same. Please correct me if i'm wrong.
Any position taken should have been at support or resistance, but not in the middle! lesson learnt I hope and writing this helps me remember.

Edit
EMA is still below ROMAR on both 2H and 1H. I'm sticking with my plan and have followed the market moving above ROMAR. I'm going short now at 14:30. My thinking is that it won't go much above ROMAR and certainly would bounce of PSAR above that. We shall see.
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