Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

FROM AVA TRADE

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

There are two main approaches to analyse the market during trading sessions, and both are popular among traders. One is called Technical Analysis, and predicts changes in the market based on past occurrences, market tendencies and behavior. Another one is Fundamental Analysis, which focuses on current events very closely, in order to try and predict how the market will turn.

When doing fundamental analysis, a trader studies the overall state of the economy, concentrating mainly on elements closely related to his trade. The research focuses on financial events including those that are remotely related but yet could affect the trade. Political, social and general events can all have a significant influence on the markets.

Why Conduct Fundamental Analysis

This type of analysis is for traders who wish to dig deeper into the financial world. It takes a little more time than some traders are willing and able to invest, but should have positive outcomes if done properly. What stands behind any type of analysis is the wish to avoid surprises that might jeopardize the trader’s money. Therefore the deeper the research and analysis, the lower the chances to be taken by surprise. Some of the world’s top traders, who regularly appear on top rich lists employ fundamental analysis. This is defiantly a good track to follow.

We must emphasize that even when conducting a thorough fundamental analysis, there is no guarantee the trade will be successful. The nature of trading any instrument is its relationship to external factors that can impact it, and the fact that the market can dramatically change within minutes, flipping our speculations and changing the fate of our trades.

How to Start Fundamental Analysis

Once you have decided on fundamental analysis as your course of action, we recommend starting by familiarizing yourself with the instrument you wish to trade. All frequent events that can impact your instrument should be taken into account. You should find the right sources to get daily news and make sure to follow them by subscribing to their newsletter and logging on regularly.

One of the main tools of fundamental analysis is to closely follow the economic calendar. It is crucial for a trader to familiarize himself with upcoming financial events involving influential players in the financial arena, such as treasuries, banks etc. One should learn which events are relevant to his trading market, and then detect how to prepare for those events.

An example to the importance of fundamental analysis can be found with the monthly US unemployed report, called the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP usually affects the USD rate, which may lead to changes in the value of other instruments, such as gold, crude oil and others. Before the NFP is announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, traders speculate on the content of the declaration, and based on that calculate their trades. This is called fundamental analysis.

To begin employing fundamental analysis, every trader should find a number of informative sources, which will provide him with knowledge that will help him with fundamental analysis, thus assisting and improving his trades. We invite you to check out our blog, which updates on a daily basis with crucial data relevant to all instruments.


COMMENTS FROM Benjaminis: NOTE !!!

My Fundamental Analysis uses all of the above HOWEVER My Money Flow Method takes FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS to a New Level and THUS gives me an EDGE in my Forex Trading. I can teach you that EDGE and as explained many times in this Money Flow Method and Risk Management thread the MOVEMENTS of FUNDS in the Trillions of Dollars each day causes the values of each of the Asset Classes to change and knowing how one Asset Class changing in VALUE affects another Asset Class gives you the Trend. "The Trend Is Your Friend"

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/16/great-trump-rotation/

Comments from Benjaminis: Article about Money Flow and Rotation !!!

BenjaminIs, greetings. I would like to learn from you. Ready to open an account with FXCM. I do not speak English and therefore I ask in detail to paint the conditions # 37

Dear wayfarer

As requested;

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year. (I WAIVE THIS CONDITION)
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time. (Or to the best of your ability)
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank You and have a Great Trading Day !!!

Contact Benjamin at [email protected] Thank You and I look forward to he

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/18/chin...ntrols-coming/

The Wrap Up = Nightly

Morning Thoughts - Daily


Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me.
George Orwell, 1984


delia ruhe

December 17, 2016 at 7:24 pm
“The current hysteria in the United States over allegations that Russia stole the American election to put its man, Donald Trump, in the White House would be hilarious if powerful people in the U.S. government and the mainstream media did not appear to take this scenario seriously.”

Washington may have initiated the crisis, but it should be remembered that Washington also ends up sipping its own Kool-Aid.

The problem for the US has always been that a great number — perhaps the majority — of Americans are gullible, and have a low panic threshold. Americans come by this trait honestly, having been governed through the politics of fear since at least the beginning of the Cold War (the real one, not the one currently being manufactured). Chomsky even wrote a book about it way back in the sixties called *Manufacturing Consent*. It’s grown even easier since then to generate a consensus by frightening Americans into it. To wit: the rapid shift from 30 percent to almost 70 percent of Americans who supported Dubya’s Iraqi WMD fantasy — even while he and his Secretary of State and his British poodle never convinced even one of his NATO allies to join his “coalition of the bribed and coerced.”

Russia’s fearsome Soviet past is the easiest ghost to invoke if you want to hold and grow Americans’ terrified attention. Moreover, a far better climate than the “war on terror” for the sale of guns, bombs, and assorted large-and-super-expensive war toys would be a New Cold War — and no doubt Boeing, Rayethon, Grummen, GE and the others who make up the Perpetual War Portfolio are quietly agitating for it. Therefore (so Washington logic leaps), Putin himself must have got on the keyboard and hacked the 2016 election, got his Useful Idiot elected, and all one lacks is the keyboard with his fingerprints on it — but those can probably be manufactured too, if necessary.

As Robert Parry wrote just a couple days ago, ‘ “perception management” remains the guiding principle of how the U.S. government deals with the American people, scaring us with exaggerated tales of foreign threats and then manipulating our fears and our misperceptions.’ How anybody can come to any hard-and-fast conclusions about the Washington story of Putin’s hacking of the American election is beyond me. To me, it merely says: There goes America again, beyond the tipping point where, within the Washington Department of Propaganda everyone is high-five-ing and offering to pay for the next round of drinks at the Department’s favourite watering hole.


Comments from Benjaminis: The message is so POWERFUL on the Evening of the day before the declaration of the 538 Electors of the Presidential Election of November 8, 2016. All feedback is welcome. Good Evening from Canada.

Morning Thoughts - Daily

The decision by the Bank of Japan will need to take into consideration of the FED decision of December 14, 2016.

BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) AND JAPANESE YEN IN THE TRADERS' SPOTLIGHT

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its decision regarding its key policy interest rate on Tuesday night, December 20th, at 03:00 GMT. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference that can result in unexpected volatility shifts in major forex pairs and Asian stocks.

According to prevailing forecasts, the Japanese central bank is expected to keep its negative interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.

The release will likely be met with high volatility in Japanese yen (JPY) currency pairs. Top instruments to follow: USD/JPY (US dollar to Japanese yen), EUR/JPY (euro to Japanese yen), NIKKEI 225 (premiere index of Japanese stocks) and Nintendo Co Ltd (NASDAQ:NTDOY) stock CFD.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

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Two months ago, when looking at an alternative measure of Chinese capital outflows using SAFE data, Goldman found that contrary to official PBOC reserve data, "China's Capital Outflows Are Soaring Again", having hit $78 billion in September.

Over the weekend, and following the latest PBOC data which revealed an outflow of $56 billion in November (which was only $34 billion when FX adjusted), Goldman repeated its FX flow calculation using SAFE data, and found the China continues to mask the full extent of its outflows, which in November spiked to $69 billion, and that "since June, this data has continued to suggest significantly larger FX sales by the PBOC than is implied by FX reserve data", once again suggesting that China is eager to mask the true extent of reserve outflows, perhaps in an attempt to not precipitate the feedback loop of even further panicked selling of Yuan and even more outflows, and thus, even more reserve depletion.

According to Goldman's MK Tang, money has been leaving in yuan payments for 14 consecutive months, while the central banks yuan positions have slumped the most since January. The situation could get worse, said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment Ltd, cited by Bloomberg.

Snippet:
Goldman also notes that the difference between the position for FX purchase data and the FX reserve drop after adjusted for estimated currency valuation effect was particularly large in September (US$23bn, vs. monthly average of about US$10bn for Jan-Sep this year).

Cumulatively since the beginning of the year, the gap between our measure of underlying FX outflows and what is suggested by data on PBOC's FX reserves or position for FX purchase is significant. Year-to-date through September, FX outflow according to our measure totaled roughly US$500bn, while implied FX sales suggested by reserve data and position for FX purchase were approximately US$200bn and US$300bn, respectively. Exhibit 1 shows our FX flow gauge.
Considering that as a result of the suddenly resurgent dollar, which overnight hit a 7 month high, and in turn led to the biggest drop in the Yuan since August, and the weakest print in the CNH since 2010, we are confident the outflows will only accelerate in October, and the complacency surrounding the biggest threat to China's economy will be promptly crushed, potentially resulting in another "late 2015" episode in which the only thing that mattered to global stocks was the daily Yuan fixing and the monthly reserve flow report.

Comments from Benjaminis: Have a look at the chart on the YUAN/US Dollar.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=CNY&view=1Y

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
With even Harvard's Larry Lessig admitting that his efforts to flip the Electoral College against Trump have failed miserably (see "Harvard Professor Admits His Efforts To Turn Electoral College Against Trump Have Failed Miserably"), it's a near certainty that Trump will, in fact, be elected President when the Electoral College casts their votes tomorrow.
That said, there could always be surprises and, as such, The Hill has published a list of five things you should keep an eye on as electors get set to cast their ballots. First, here is how the 538 electors should cast their ballots if they all strictly follow the will of the voters in their respective states.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20EC%201_0.JPG

That said, we know that at least one Texas elector, Chris Suprun, has vowed to go rogue tomorrow and anxious eyes will be waiting to see if anyone decides to join him. As The Hill points out, there hasn't been an election since 1836 in which more than 1 elector changed his vote, so even 2 defectors would make history.
There’s no evidence of a widespread number of Republican defections—just one Republican elector from Texas has gone public with plans to break from Trump.

But there hasn’t been an election in which more than one elector jumped ship for reasons other than the death of a candidate since 1836, according to the nonprofit FairVote. So a defection by even one more Republican elector would make history.
The next thing to watch is whether any Democrat electors will cast protest votes. A small group of Democratic electors had vowed to join Larry Lessig's coup attempt by throwing their support behind an alternative Republican candidate. While this now seems like a remote possibility, it is something to watch for.
Democratic electors are the ones beating the drums for the revolt, yet they’re largely powerless to change the outcome.

A handful of electors are already planning on uniting around a Republican alternative as a protest, but it’s still unclear how many are willing to join the protest.

In theory, a unified front of the 232 Democrats could join with 38 Republicans to elect an alternative president. But in practice, the anti-Trump electors will be lucky if more than a dozen Democrats break.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ge%20Map_0.JPG

With 29 states and the District of Columbia binding their electors by law, it will also be interesting to see if anyone in those states choose to defect, and if so, what penalties will be levied upon them.
The country’s presidential electors are chosen through different methods across the country—some are elected directly while others are picked by the candidates themselves or by the state party.

Bucking their jurisdiction’s votes could also have consequences for faithless electors. 29 states and the District of Columbia bind their electors by law, mostly with small fines as retribution for going rogue. No faithless electors have ever been punished, so political junkies will be watching to see if that changes.
Finally, when all the voting is said and done, all eyes will be watching how the candidates and their respective parties react. Will Trump launch a massive tweet storm blasting "faithless electors" and/or will Democrats finally tone down the "Russian hacking" rhetoric and calls to scrap the Electoral College system? Somehow we suspect that finally admitting they ran a failed candidate that was doomed to lose from the start is not a viable alternative for the talking heads of the leftist media...so we're somewhat less than hopeful.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/go...price-of-gold/

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So, OK then. It is what it is. As long as The Banks retain control, the only way you can get the price of gold to move higher is to move in your favor the key inputs which drive the buying decisions for synthetic or paper gold. And what are those key inputs?

1. Forexspecifically the USDJPY
2. In a larger sense, the US dollar as measured by the POSX (TFMR slang for the DXY)
3. And, as its the US dollar gold price that we measure most, the general trend and level of US interest rates, particularly US interest rates adjusted for inflation or real rates

Thats it. Its those three. Get all of those three working in your favor as we did in the first half of 2016 and you get a 30% rally. However, when all of these turn against you as they have since late September, WATCH OUT!
Youve now seen these charts for what must seem like a million times. The inverted USDJPY is in candles and the price of gold is in bars. Again, do you see a fundamentally-derived price of gold in these charts or do you simply note two closely-correlated digital assets, where HFTs see a move in the USDJPY and instantly buy or sell paper gold in response?
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/...nknown_757.pnghttp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/...nown-1_531.pnghttp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/...nown-2_532.png
To that end, lets end this post on a positive note
A week ago, some eco-quants at JPM issued a forecast for the USDJPY that projected a fall back to 100 or even lower. Well today, UBS came out with a nearly identical forecast. I would strongly suggest that you take the time to read this very closely: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...s-wealth-warns
Again, when the USDJPY was near 100 last summer (or 1.00 JPYUSD on the charts above), gold was primarily between $1330 and $1380. Why? The HFTs had observed the fall in the USDJPY from 120 to 100 and, in turn, purchased gold exposure at the Comex. Total Comex open interest surged by over 50% and the price of that gold exposure rallied by over 30%.
Could we be on the verge of another such rally? Well, I hope by now youve figured out that the USDJPY holds the key. If the quants at JPM and UBS are correct, prepare for upside in 2017 and not the doom-and-gloom downside that the usual permabears are attempting to convince you is coming.

Comments from Benjaminis: The next article from Zerohedge of November 29, 2016 continues with these views so when REALITY returns from the PERCEPTION of what President Elect Donald J. Trump and his team does during 2017 most likely the REVERSAL will start.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...s-wealth-warns

Snippet:
For now Sakikibara's forecast has yet to take hold: he predicted that the yen would strengthen as far as 90 per dollar within six months of Trump’s surprise election victory. Elsewhere, JPMorgan’s Tokyo-based head of Japan markets research Tohru Sasaki sees it at 99 as of the end of 2017.
That said, there is still time: both forecasters were correct in calls made at the start of the year for the yen to appreciate, when most analysts predicted an extension of the currency’s record four years of weakness against the dollar. The yen remains the best performer among its developed-market peers in 2016, strengthening 7.4% against the greenback. That trend is something Trump and other U.S. policy makers won’t be keen to change, according to UBS’s Ibayashi.
“A strong dollar will be a drag on revenue for U.S. businesses,” he said. “It’s a headwind for employment, and Americans would find that unacceptable.”
Finally, and perhaps suggesting that Trump won't even be necessary to unleash a regional wave of protectionism following the collapse of TPP, Nikkei reported that Japan has proposed stricter tariff rules that would knock five trading partners including China and Mexico off the list of countries receiving preferential treatment for emerging economies.
A finance ministry customs committee said Thursday that the list of nations qualifying for zero or minimal import tariffs on certain goods would be revised to exclude nations that account for 1% or more of world exports or make the World Bank's list of upper-middle income economies for three years running. Currently, trading partners need to qualify as high-income economies for three years to have preferential status revoked. The rules change would end special treatment for China, Mexico, Brazil, Thailand and Malaysia.
It is only a matter of time before Japan's trading partners retaliate and - if UBS and JPM are right - undo all the recent Yen losses.

Comments from Benjaminis: This last article from Zerohedge completes my research on what most likely should happen and of course WE now await the meeting of the BOJ.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...bles-most-july

Snippet:
After 16 days in a row without a meaningful decline, Asia trading has opened with USDJPY dumping back from almost 114.00 to 111.50 - the biggest drop since July 29th. The USD Index is down most since Trump's win but for now the moves in equities (Japanese and US) are modest (but down)...

Yen is heavily bid as Asia trading opens
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._usdjpy2_0.jpg

The biggest drop in USDJPY since July...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._usdjpy1_0.jpg

As the post-Trump surge in the dollar has seemingly stalled...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._usdjpy3_0.jpg

Japanese equities are getting hit...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._usdjpy5_0.jpg

but for now, the Friday spike in US equities at the close is stalling (though modestly)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._usdjpy4_0.jpg


Closing Comments from Benjaminis: Many if not most reading my research will perhaps say that there is too much information to read and understand and you are probably right HOWEVER the reason that I have put all of this here in case anyone wants to understand the main reason is to show how my Trade Plan has developed and what has changed over the last week. In any Trade Plan it is important to continually review NEW FACTS to verify that the Trade Plan still has a realistic chance to happen. The DECISION by the FED on December 14, 2016 only 5 days ago added to the PERCEPTION and the REALITY being two vastly different things and that is why the Dow continued towards 20,000 and the USD/JPY turned again and headed towards 120.00.

Please post any questions that you surely must have here and I will do my best to answer them. In summary my THREE Major Trade Plans for 2017 are as follows;

(1) Go Short the US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=YM

(2) Go Short USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=d1

(3) Go Long Gold and Silver

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=GC
Have a GREAT TRADING DAY !!!

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/12/1...capping-trump/

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A recent Pew survey, for example, shows: “The Republican Party made deep inroads into America’s middle-class communities in 2016. Although many middle-class areas voted for Barack Obama in 2008, they overwhelmingly favored Donald Trump in 2016, a shift that was a key to his victory … In 2016, Trump successfully defended all 27 middle-class areas won by Republicans in 2008. In a dramatic shift, however, Hillary Clinton lost in 18 of the 30 middle-class areas won by Democrats in 2008 … Overall, Democrats experienced widespread erosion in support from 2008 to 2016. Their share of the vote fell in 196 of the 221 metropolitan areas examined. The loss in support was sufficiently large to move 37 areas from the Democratic column to the Republican column …”.
A Charge Lacking Evidence
And, so far, the American officials have stated explicitly that there is no evidence to sustain their claim of Russian involvement – and National Security Agency, which, alone, might have such evidence – were it to exist – has not come forward to confirm the CIA “assessment.” Other American intelligence agencies have directly contested the leaked CIA “finding.”
https://consortiumnews.com/wp-conten...an-300x199.jpg
CIA Director John Brennan at a White House meeting during his time as President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser.
In short, we are told that the CIA claims are based on “inference”: which is to say that the CIA officials are “confident,” based on their psychological profile of President Putin, that the latter would prefer Mr. Trump as President; that since it was the Democrats who experienced leaks – and not the Republicans – it may be inferred that a hostile power was behind the leaks; and since Putin lies at the apex of Russian power, it may “confidently” be inferred that he personally would have authorized and directed such leaks.
Of course, this is not intelligence. This is simply a given conceptual framework (or group think), which may be right or may be wrong, being played out. It is blatantly political – unless sustained by hard intelligence.
And it is pernicious. Regardless of what may be said officially, in due course, in respect to the CIA claims, a cloud of illegitimacy will hang over the Trump Administration, and, as Graham Fuller rightly observes, this supposed illegitimacy, derived from the decisive influence of Russia on the election, may not be ephemeral, but rather continue to haunt the President throughout his incumbency. (It is hard to lay to rest CIA inferences once made, beyond repeating that there is no definite evidence to support them.) Such a finding would hardly dissipate the smoldering antipathies.
The allegation of Russian malfeasance may also derail the confirmation of Rex Tillerson, official “friend of Russia,” as Secretary of State. It may thus hobble Trump’s ability to reach détente with Russia – and may taint any détente that subsequently may be reached with Russia.
It is likely too, to make President Putin more wary of reaching any accord with Tillerson – suspecting that any new détente with the U.S. will unleash a further torrent of abuse of Russia from a polarized America. Even were Putin personally to welcome a Trump political initiative, further abuse of Russia in America and Europe might not be judged by President Putin to be worth the candle. No people, and not least the Russian people, like to see their country traduced publicly, and at length, in the world press. The onslaught is already having its impact: Russians will be asking themselves can Trump command such a divided and soured country.
Delegitimizing a President
Can one conclude that this outcome (a delegitimized Presidency) was somehow other than that which the CIA intended? Pat Buchanan (himself a thrice-time U.S. Presidential candidate) has no doubts: “The [New York] Times editorial spoke of a ‘darkening cloud’ already over the Trump presidency, and warned that a failure to investigate and discover the full truth of Russia’s hacking could only ‘feed suspicion among millions of Americans that … (t)he election was indeed rigged.’
https://consortiumnews.com/wp-conten..._1-300x204.jpg
President-elect Donald J. Trump (Photo credit: donaldjtrump.com)
“Behind the effort to smear Tillerson and delegitimize Trump lies a larger motive. Trump has antagonists in both parties who are alarmed at his triumph, because it imperils the foreign policy agenda that is their raison d’être, their reason ‘for being.’
These people do not want to lift sanctions on Moscow. They do not want an end to the confrontation with Russia. As is seen by their bringing in tiny Montenegro, they want to enlarge NATO to encompass Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
They have in mind the permanent U.S. encirclement of Russia … Their goal is to bring down Putin and bring about ‘regime change’ in Moscow.”
In short, the Russia “hype” is about blocking Trump from making his foreshadowed shift away from the new Cold War, pursued by the present U.S. establishment, and towards initiating détente instead, and perhaps the playing up of the Russian “threat” extends even to hoping to frighten enough presidential electors to change their vote on Dec. 19 (though that prospect seems improbable).
If there are indeed foreign intelligence services with their “thumb” in the American election, arguably it is those European services that are feeding the “profound” propaganda threat from Russia meme – and thereby helping in the delegitimization of the U.S. President-elect, and to keeping the new Cold War alive. (There are European states deeply opposed to any rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia).
But this politicization of intelligence is pernicious in another way – to which Graham Fuller also alludes. The allegations that Trump is a knowing or unknowing pawn of Russia is explosive emotional material thrown into an already enflamed, splintered and embittered American national psyche. The “not my President” meme may make it impossible for Trump to operationalize his policies – as polarized government departments turn upon each other (as is already occurring amongst the intelligence agencies). In short, it can paralyze the very operationality of government.
Buchanan states the obvious conclusion, when he writes: “early in his presidency, if not before, Trump is going to have to impose his foreign policy upon his own party and, indeed, upon his own government. Or his presidency will be broken, as was Lyndon Johnson’s.”
Profound Polarization
But let us be clear: de-legitimation can be a two-edged sword. Were, by some pretty unimaginable event, Hillary Clinton to be enacted as President vice Trump, she would find her ability to command the authority of the state as hobbled by the bitterness and anger – as would a delegitimized Trump.
https://consortiumnews.com/wp-conten..._o-300x200.jpg
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Politicization of intelligence services is not new, nor are “black” (i.e. false-flagged) information operations conducted by Western services, but the scale of the present assault on a U.S. President-elect marks, perhaps, a different order of potential consequences.
How can this have happened? The war in Syria has had, it seems, a hugely corrosive effect on services such as CIA and MI6. Firstly, there was the tension of contradiction: the deceit to be maintained of ostensibly fighting terrorism, while secretly supporting such bloody forces (in order to weaken President Bashar al-Assad and subsequently Russia).
Secondly, that of pretending to be pursuing a “principled” policy of off-shored “identity politics” (Sunnis as victims), while quietly accepting – and becoming dependent on – the “off-balance sheet” subventions flowing from the very patrons of such forces (shades of Clinton Foundation pay-to-play ethos).
And thirdly, by becoming the echo chamber of claims, however improbable, however false, thrown up by sundry armed movements and their paymasters – with the intent to force the hand of Western military intervention. In short, these services cease to be observers; they became investors. They become lost in a maze of contorted realities, false propaganda, and of acquired hubris. Like Prometheus, they think to secretly steal from Zeus, the god of war: they aspire to dictate war and peace.
Into this heady world of “strategic communication” warfare, has intruded Mr. Trump, spoiling their Syria gambit – and promising détente with Russia. It must indeed seem intolerable.
Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat who was a senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy. He is the founder and director of the Conflicts Forum.
https://consortiumnews.com/wp-conten...images/pdf.pnghttps://consortiumnews.com/wp-conten...ages/print.gif

Central Banks RIP. Although they still have the credibility that the stuff floating around is fiat. But FX needs to start truly reflecting economic output.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...p-state-blues/

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The Deep State Blues

Guest Post by Jim Kunstler
Lest you wonder, not only did I not vote for Mr. Trump (or Hillary), but I relished heaping opprobrium on him during the election campaign. Just so you know, I’m not advocating for him, but I’m alarmed that the Deep State (the White House + the Intel Agency gang) now appears to be trying to hack the electoral college vote against him.

The headline deployed everywhere last week, “Russia Hacks Election,” was designed by the Deep State players to deviously lead the broadly dim public to think that Russia somehow interfered with the balloting process, which was not possible since voting machines are not hooked up to the internet. And then it was repeated endlessly by the cable news networks and the newspapers, under the number one rule of propaganda: that if you repeat something often enough, the public will swallow it.


This dishonest meme was also designed to distract the public from the substance of the emails disclosed by WikiLeaks — namely, the scamming and trickery of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and the influence-peddling of Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, which had her flirting with indictment last summer, and only reinforced her already-established public image as an unscrupulous person.

The New York Times especially worked the “Russia Hacks Election” story to a fare-the-well, saying in its Sunday edition:
The Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that Moscow put its thumb on the scale for Mr. Trump through the release of hacked Democratic emails, which provided fodder for many of the most pernicious false attacks on Mrs. Clinton on social media.

False attacks? What, that Hillary’s cronies put the DNC’s “thumb on the scale” against Bernie Sanders? That Donna Brazille gave Hillary debate questions beforehand? That as Secretary of State Hillary gave more face-time to foreign supplicants based on their contributions to the Clinton Foundation, and expedited arms deals for especially big givers? That she collected millions in speaking fees for sucking up to Too-Big-To-Fail bankers? That The Times and The WashPo and CNN reporters were taking direction from Hillary’s PR operatives?

Consider, too, how the Deep State “Russia Hacks Election” meme was ramped up to top volume coincidentally the week before the electoral college vote, as a last-ditch effort was launched by the old-line media, the diehard Hillary partisans, and a bunch of Hollywood celebrities, to persuade electoral college delegates to switch their votes to deprive Trump of his election victory.

President Obama did his bit to amplify the message by coloring Russian President Vladimir Putin as being behind the so-called hacking because “not much happens in Russia without, you know, Vladimir Putin,” just like not much happened in old Puritan New England without the involvement of Old Scratch. So now we have an up-to-date Devil figure to stir the paranoid imaginations of an already divided and perturbed public.

Hillary and her supporters have vehemently asserted that “seventeen intelligence agencies” agree with the assessment that Russia hacked the election. It might be greater news to the American people to hear that there actually are seventeen such agencies out there. Perhaps Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama might explain exactly what they are beyond the CIA, the FBI, the DIA, the NSA, and DHS. Personally, I feel less secure knowing that there are so many additional surveillance services sifting through everybody’s digital debris trail.

There’s been some chagrin among more prudent observers that neither the various Intel gang chiefs, including James Clapper, overall Director of National Intelligence, nor the White House have provided a shred of evidence that WikiLeaks got the Hillary emails from the Russians. One might even suppose that we discovered the hack by hacking the Russians, perhaps even Mr. Putin’s personal iPhone — but, wait a minute… we don’t intrude on other nations’ business. We don’t use the internet to spy (!) on anybody.

It will be interesting to see how Mr. Trump gets along with the Intel gang when (and if) he actually makes it into the oval office. It’s nice to think that he will fire a bunch of them, and then fire a bunch more, and maybe take a good hard look at these seventeen security and surveillance agencies and maybe shut a few of them down. In the meantime, their activity begins to look like the attempted coup d’état I warned about a few months ago.

Forgive me for changing the subject so briskly, but there was another front page piece in The New York Times on Sunday that kind of said it all about where that Old Gray Lady’s collective head is at these days. Behold this quote from the story What Women Really Think of Men:
As the country prepares to revert to white male rule, our common condition for all but eight of the last 240 years, we should think harder about why we assume so little of men, including ones we may be married to. Too many men don’t prove those expectations wrong, and are rewarded anyway with prizes like the presidency.

Welcome aboard. It is nice to have you post here. The beginning of the END and as it all unravels during 2017 perhaps so will the end of the Federal Reserve come. December 23, 1913 in the middle of the night the US Government created this monster and today we see clearly what they have done.

A great book to read about the Central Bank of Central banks is "Tower of Basel" by Adam Lebor.

The Shadowy History Of The Secret Bank That Runs The World. Published in 2013. ISBN 978-1-61039-381-2

While I do not expect any surprises with what the Electoral Voters do there is a good chance that there will be some unexpected results or protests or motions and if this were to happen while the final result will not change ANY UNCERTAINTY will be bad for the markets.

I am standing clear and do not recommend any NEW TRADES until the end of the day today.

We live in interesting times. I am watching live coverage on Fox as it is the only news source that appears to want to be fair.

I look forward to discussion with members reading this thread.

Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
VIX has not seen an 11 handle since 12/9 (when The Dow was 250 points lower).

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

https://dailyreckoning.com/nomi-prin...y+Reckoning%29

Snippet:
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for only the second time in a decade by .25 basis points the day after our interview. Many saw this move as a reflection of Fed officials having confidence in the U.S economy and what might be signs of rising inflation. Europe, in the meantime, has been left scratching its head in a perplexed wonder of how it should react.

One year ago, Prins’ was out in front of the December 2015 rate hike in which she firmly believed other central banks would be forced to react. This time, The Daily Reckoning got the exclusive on what she believes is next on the financial horizon and what specifically might be in store for the Eurozone.
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...7-768x1024.jpg
Nomi Prins at Checkpoint Charlie, in Berlin.
The Daily Reckoning (DR): The U.S just raised interest rates – what reaction do you see coming from Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB)?
Nomi Prins: The ECB won’t act as it had last year, it won’t react immediately by cutting rates. What is most likely to come from the ECB this round is an expansion of quantitative easing operations (QE) in which more money is pumped into the system.

It is also likely that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates – the central bank is one of the only major coordinated banks that operates at the same level of the Federal Reserve and remains independent in action. It is also one of the very few central banks that has not acted by cutting rates, so far, in the wake of the financial crisis. The BoE now believes that they have the room to cut rates.

If the global markets pattern of turmoil is to be replicated in similar form from last year, they’ll be inclined to act. From there, depending on how bad things get following the market shakeup after the Fed’s action, the BoE will be forced to extend, if not expand, its own UK version of QE.

DR: The European Union has come to a very difficult crossroads economically and politically. What is to come for the EU and the European Central Bank?
Nomi Prins: The EU as an institution is going to continue its trend of cracking and progressively getting worse. The current near term reality for everyday people is that their economic future will not match what quantitative easing (along with zero interest rate policy) has done equal to what banks have been given.

People can clearly see that those corporations are being given considerable financial and policy-oriented assistance, while the everyday worker is being left behind. They might not know specifically what to call the economic hit they’re feeling, but they certainly understand they’re worse off.
EU member states will look for more beneficial relationships in order to support their individual economies. Though it will take a longer time, there will be a considerable shift in power underway within economic trade and geopolitical relationships. This will also be seen within the ECB as it continues to struggle to react to economic and political shifts in the region.

DR: What is to come economically and politically for 2017? What are you watching?
Nomi Prins: In the United States, Donald Trump will be the major story. If the infrastructure plan promised on the campaign, that has now been envisioned by many, is to actually take place it could spur economic growth globally. But that will remain to be seen for some time.
Even if a massive stimulus of infrastructure spending were to take place, it is seemingly a flawed strategy to begin with in regards to budgets and overall impact to a real main street economy.

The biggest moves will be political. It is important to watch the speed and direction in which a president Trump is able to move forward with international alliances. These relations will impact trade, currency and capital flows outside of the U.S. While they were already set in motion during what can be described as an ongoing financial crisis, it will be furthered under a Trump administration.

People in other countries are going to react to government actions, and inaction. Expect a Europe that will remain economically and politically crippled. More elections in Europe will bring about more economic shocks, and further stress.
In the same breath, China will continually get bad press amongst the mainstream media outlets but carry on its momentum toward furthering its position as a global leader. We saw that with its inclusion at the International Monetary Fund in the special drawing rights (SDR) and we’ll see further status moves in the future.

The United Kingdom is undergoing minimal job numbers while the pound sterling continues to weaken. That trend should continue in 2017. Things for the UK will be rocky as they slowly head toward the Article 50 of exiting the European Union. Theresa May has indicated that all of the strategy and government leadership planning will be made public around March of 2017.
The impact on the UK and the EU will be made more clear then. The public will have a greater understanding of whether the EU will be kind to the UK or set out to make an example out of those members that choose to leave. In the meantime, the UK will begin to forge new relationships in order to be hedged for BREXIT uncertainty.

DR: As the International Monetary Fund continues to surface as a global influencer what is your impression on its influence for 2017?
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...6-768x1024.jpg
News monitor on the street in Berlin, Germany. EU counterparts highly concerned about IMF and Lagarde’s trial.

Nomi Prins: The IMF has been focused on a rising dollar and emerging markets not being able to pay back debts relative to a strengthening dollar. If the Fed policy of raising rates continues to be a policy for the future and a strengthening of the U.S dollar continues, this debt burden will on EM will continue to press down on the global economy.

Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, will be found guilty for criminal charges linked to her misuse of public funds during her time as France’s finance minister. This very well could force her out of the post that she had just entered in February for her second five-year term. Similar to Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s scandal and resignation from the IMF, the move could prove to be a destabilizing factor to the IMF and the organization’s ability to participate in government bailout activities.

If she does step down from the head of the IMF, does the Fund select someone more friendly to U.S policy? Does it just go away? The coming weeks and days into 2017 will give very early signals as to what to expect.


DR: Finally, how do you see the Fed responding for 2017? After this December 2016 rate hike, where is Yellen looking?
Nomi Prins: On December 16 of last year, the financial headlines swirled that four quarter point increases would be on the horizon for 2016. Instead, the reality was that we had one. This time, they are saying even less. The signaled expectation from the Fed is that three rate moves are to be anticipated.
Technically speaking, there is no reason to trust anything that they say. After getting one rate hike from a Fed that forecast four moves, it is clear that nothing from the Fed is known. It shows that Yellen and those running the Fed are not really sure of anything.
Regards,

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
Submitted by Brendan Brown via The Mises Institute,
Markets have not been slow to see through the hollowness of the European Central Bank's announced (on December 8) curtailment of the pace of money printing planned for April next year. The ECB plans to reduce its “stimulus” from 80 billion euros per month down to 60 billion euros per month. But, it plans to do this for nine months before any further review — rather than the usual 6-month fixed period until further review.
Sixty billion is a huge number and the persistence of the ECB in sticking to its radical policy suggests that Chief Draghi, and ultimately Chancellor Merkel, are deeply anxious about the dangers of financial crisis ahead which could rock the status quo in Europe. The potential triggers to crisis include first and foremost Italy — but also the looming elections in Holland, and most importantly France.
Everyone and their dog in the marketplace realizes that an EMU (European Monetary Union) debt crisis before the German elections next Autumn could sink Chancellor Merkel.
There is a deeper problem here.
It is becoming clear that even beyond Europe’s election season, “monetary normalization” may well not be feasible.
To understand this, we should realize that monetary normalization in any real sense (not the Bernanke-Yellen-Fischer sense of embarking on minute highly broadcast rate rises whilst leaving everything else unchanged) has three main components:
First, the restoring of monetary base to the pivot of the monetary system, meaning a big shrinkage in the central bank balance sheet;

Second, a freeing of interest rates from central bank manipulation; and

Third, the repeal of the 2% permanent inflation target in favor of stable prices in the long run (but not short run).
Markets realize that the US may go down this road under the incoming Trump administration, at least until the next crash and recession. The exact timing of entry could depend on when Chief Yellen retires or resigns. But the starting point is a detail, and in any case, the new administration can give a strong signal of intent by its choice of two Fed governors early in the New Year and its nomination of the new chief to be. An announcement is widely expected by mid-year.
How the US Might Normalize Monetary Policy
Information could emerge by then about how monetary normalization in the US is to proceed. Most likely, this will involve the White House brokering a deal between the Fed and Treasury whereby the former swaps its portfolio of long-maturity treasuries (and possibly mortgage backed securities) with the latter in exchange for short-maturity T-bills, which can then be sold off rapidly in the markets in an open market operation which would shrink the monetary base.
True, Ms. Yellen and Mr. Fischer would not contemplate such a deal, as it appears to run contrary to much-vaunted central bank independence. But a deal is patently practical between two Trump nominees — at the Fed and Treasury respectively — and it would be widely approved of by many who are enthusiastic about sound money.
Problem: any intimation of such a deal and path ahead would send the dollar up against those currencies where no such normalization is practical — demonstrably Europe. And of course China is a whole different topic, but any monetary normalization in China is light years away given the huge financial risks there.
So Germany, with the largest trade surplus on Earth (its current account surplus next year could reach 9% of GDP), becomes a candidate country for naming and shaming in the semi-annual report put out by the Treasury on currency manipulation. And in the past, Germany has been mentioned as a possible candidate for that list though not actually put on it. China in its defense of huge trade imbalances is quite ready if the past is any indication to point to Japan and Germany as offenders which should also be brought into the discussion.
But this time round Japan is in a different situation.
What About Japan?
It is well within the realm of the politically possible that PM Abe and his central bank Chief Kuroda would copy the US example in organizing a swap to bring down the monetary base (the two parties would be the BoJ and the Ministry of Finance). And before then there is widespread expectation that the BoJ will move away from its present pegging of long-term rates at zero (via potentially huge but volatile intervention financed by money printing). This would most likely happen in two stages (first moving the peg upward, then abandoning it).
The over-riding priority for Tokyo could be solidifying the strategic alliance with Washington not least in view of the rising geo-political dangers related to China and the vacuum now remaining after the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Trade deal.
Is it possible that the ECB and Berlin could have second thoughts about monetary normalization in the context of a threatened trade war with the US?
Yes they are sure to have second thoughts, but what can they do?
There is no European Finance Ministry with which all the bad loans and bonds in the ECB balance sheet can be swapped for T-bills. And if the German, French, or Dutch finance ministries were to step up to the task, their governments would have to recognize the huge losses to date in ECB interventions to “do whatever it takes to save EMU.”
And so it is not just popular elections that now challenge the status quo in Europe. Trade war lurks not far behind. And this is a challenge not just for the modern Chancellor Metternich and the European status quo, but also for global prosperity.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...161219_TRY.jpg

Google translation from the latest upates via Turkish' Hurriyet:
Russian Ambassador Andrey Gennadiyevich Karlov was armed at the opening of a painting exhibition in the Center for Contemporary Arts in Ankara. It was stated that the ambassador and the ambassador to whom he was attacked were still inside. Special Operations Police turned around the building, 15-20 hand guns were heard. It is stated that there is a conflict.

The attack took place during the opening of a painting exhibition in Ankara's Center for Contemporary Arts. Russia's Ankara Ambassador Andrey Karlov, who came to the floor to speak after the opening, was attacked at this time.

Hürriyet Ankara representative Deniz Zeyrek said: "We have a photograph from our Ankara buremus and we have a photograph about the incident and there was an exhibition of photographs of Çamkatka while the ambassador spoke to the air before the attacker first shot it and then the ambassador shot him from the back. The ambassador and the aggressor are still inside.Police said in the preparation for the operation that "

Hürriyet photomuhavi Ha?im K?l?ç explained the people living there: There was a photo exhibition organized by the Russian embassy. A man in a black suit was standing behind the ambassador, who we thought was our protection when the embassy was speaking. And then he fired at the air. Then the ambassador shot.

The attacker said more about Aleppo. Then he wanted people to go out. As the people went out, they fired a few more hands into the body of the ambassador. I guess one of those invites came to one of the invites. He said that the Contemporary Arts Center's security was entering by showing a police ID. There were about 100 people in the guesthouse and they were completely evacuated. As the people ran away, the ambassador fired a few more hands.

Special Operations and police teams surrounded the building. 15-20 gun shots were heard. It is stated that there is a conflict.

In the meantime, Russian officials who spoke to hurriyet.com.tr said that the attacks were carried out by radical Islamic terrorists.

Major GEOPOLITICAL RISK !!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...rld%252Bnation

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

NEWS FLASH: It has been confirmed just now sadly that the Ambassador is dead !!!