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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #22,421
  • Dec 14, 2016 9:20am Dec 14, 2016 9:20am
Quoting chess king
{quote} I'm in ..in the same place 1.0608... I took half at 1.0660, I'll let the rest run. Stop is the same new LL of the year. If I'm stopped, I'm not worried. I still think 1.18xx is a possible target Until new LL.To invalidate the target.
I can lose a good deal .. but I will close for +40.
There may be some surprise from the Fed ! And the price go to 1.03xx.

In short I'm not willing to risk today
  • #22,422
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:12pm Dec 14, 2016 12:12pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...s-bill-stop-it



but why did it take so long??????????
  • #22,423
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:17pm Dec 14, 2016 12:17pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post9347171


Thank you for sharing - will take a close look later.

Obviously someone did not like that the indicator has an expiration date LOL
  • #22,424
  • Dec 14, 2016 12:51pm Dec 14, 2016 12:51pm
looking through my EW-Charts and trying to find what may happen to USD most likely:

looking at daily and weekly TF's (so more macro-moves over the next weeks to months)

UJ - most like further drop

UCHF - most likely further rise

UCAD - may rise a bit more, but dropping from here would also be logical (we will definitively see more downside next year)


GU - may rise initially up to 1,35 (former wave 4 area), but predominate trend is still down and should find bottom below 1.10

AU - may either see more sideways, or very soon sharp drop

UDX - this one is very unclear to me shorter term. In the longer term higher, but recent structure up since the 92 bottom looks overlapping thus corrective. Maybe B-wave up, then should drop towards 92 again, or ending diagonal up in play

EU - most have the EU set to decline sharp soon. One of my scenarios sees us in the intermediate bullish wave E up of a large trinagle. This may then go easily 1.12-1.14 roughly


SP500 - most probably from my point of view up. Either it is building ending diagonal, then I see 2500 easily. If very bullish multiple 1,2,1,2 etc setup, then much higher prices. But we should continue for the next weeks up most probably. Maybe I will end up beeing totally wrong here due to shitty failed fith or such things........

Oil - for me in good spot to try shorts soon

Gold - shorter term would like to see rising. If we lose 1160 substantially, watch for 1063 . Sentiment at 10% bulls. All in all much higher odds of rising


Good luck this evening - do not burn fingers, do not bet the farm or your wives jewellery
  • #22,425
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:28am Dec 15, 2016 9:28am
E/U long 1.0403
U/J short 118.55
  • #22,426
  • Dec 15, 2016 11:44am Dec 15, 2016 11:44am
Quoting chess king
E/U long 1.0403 U/J short 118.55
closed UJ ++65
eu still
  • #22,427
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:52pm Dec 15, 2016 2:52pm
If the EURUSD is about to fool as many Elliotticans as possible, then we should see a strong ralley soon, because most of the Elliotticans are in same count and are very sure, that the EU has to follow the path to the 0.8x area

Most of the time contrary indication


just to mention it
  • #22,428
  • Dec 15, 2016 2:58pm Dec 15, 2016 2:58pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...almost-dummies
  • #22,429
  • Dec 15, 2016 9:16pm Dec 15, 2016 9:16pm
Quoting infinitus
If the EURUSD is about to fool as many Elliotticans as possible, then we should see a strong ralley soon, because most of the Elliotticans are in same count and are very sure, that the EU has to follow the path to the 0.8x area Most of the time contrary indication just to mention it

Gold 4% bulls
Silver 6% bulls

Platinum 10% bulls

DXY 96% bulls

EU 7% bulls
USDJpy 93% bulls
USDCHF 91% bulls

T-notes 8%
T-bonds 8%

SP500 69%


Remember: in a wave 3 down we expect the people to be right (thus the point of recognition). That means: extreme sentiment levels can persist over a longer time, therefore not to be seen as contrary indication.


In EU only a break above 0540 can be seen as bullish from an EW point of view
  • #22,430
  • Dec 15, 2016 10:55pm Dec 15, 2016 10:55pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Gold 4% bulls Silver 6% bulls Platinum 10% bulls DXY 96% bulls EU 7% bulls USDJpy 93% bulls USDCHF 91% bulls T-notes 8% T-bonds 8% SP500 69% Remember: in a wave 3 down we expect the people to be right (thus the point of recognition). That means: extreme sentiment levels can persist over a longer time, therefore not to be seen as contrary indication. In EU only a break above 0540 can be seen as bullish from an EW point of view

with stocks at all times high, Gold at 5 years low, will people rotate into Gold when stocks start their eventually deep decline?

Prechter once had a brilliant theory he called "all at the same time", postulating that all markets would start dropping around same time, and the only thing that would profit would be the USD.

This theory is based on deflation theories.

So, to make this happen, we should see rising Gold soon, ideally towards the 1400-1500. Sp500 needs from an EW point of view some more upside in overlapping waves, making people insecure and starting to buying Gold.

At the same time around EU has to undergo corrective move to the north, with people believing, that all is priced in, believing that the EU will tighten at the end of 2017 anyway.

Then, maybe towards end of 2017 all starts to break down and the winner is the USD


We will see what we will get

BTW: for me ideally upside target of UJ is around 122, but may consolidate beforehand a bit

UJ weekly TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 40 KB
  • #22,431
  • Dec 15, 2016 11:01pm Dec 15, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} with stocks at all times high, Gold at 5 years low, will people rotate into Gold when stocks start their eventually deep decline? Prechter once had a brilliant theory he called "all at the same time", postulating that all markets would start dropping around same time, and the only thing that would profit would be the USD. This theory is based on deflation theories. So, to make this happen, we should see rising Gold soon, ideally towards the 1400-1500. Sp500 needs from an EW point of view some more upside in overlapping waves, making people...

better chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 46 KB
  • #22,432
  • Dec 15, 2016 11:32pm Dec 15, 2016 11:32pm
looking at the Gold chart priced in Euros

seeing 5 waves down from the top and corrective move up


so, assuming that the Gold priced in Euro had to drop, we have to assume, that the EU should go up, or price in Gold substantially down, or both

ideal price target for Gold in Euro would be 750 €

Calculating EU with 1.20 then would give us Gold at 900 USD


If the USD is set to further strengthen against the EUR, we would certainly need Gold to drop very deep. In this case, Gold should now be in an impulsive move down which should end ideally in the 650-750 range


For me, the Gold chart in Euro is very clear, because it has a very very clear impulsive pattern down from the top, which is calling for another steep drop over the course of the next year(s)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-12-16 06_16_43-Goldpreis aktuell in Euro und US Dollar.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #22,433
  • Dec 15, 2016 11:34pm Dec 15, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting infinitus
looking at the Gold chart priced in Euros seeing 5 waves down from the top and corrective move up so, assuming that the Gold priced in Euro had to drop, we have to assume, that the EU should go up, or price in Gold substantially down, or both ideal price target for Gold in Euro would be 750 Calculating EU with 1.20 then would give us Gold at 900 USD If the USD is set to further strengthen against the EUR, we would certainly need Gold to drop very deep. In this case, Gold should now be in an impulsive move down which should end ideally in the 650-750...

the question that remains is: will Gold reach the ideal selling point at around 1250 € first?
  • #22,434
  • Dec 15, 2016 11:37pm Dec 15, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the question that remains is: will Gold reach the ideal selling point at around 1250 first?

Gold at 1250€ could mean the EURUSD at 1.12 and Gold at 1400 USD
  • #22,435
  • Dec 16, 2016 1:52am Dec 16, 2016 1:52am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Gold at 1250 could mean the EURUSD at 1.12 and Gold at 1400 USD
Can you post a chart for your count for EU till 1,08xx?
  • #22,436
  • Dec 16, 2016 4:24am Dec 16, 2016 4:24am
Quoting chess king
E/U long 1.0403 U/J short 118.55
Closed EU ++60
  • #22,437
  • Dec 16, 2016 5:53am Dec 16, 2016 5:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the question that remains is: will Gold reach the ideal selling point at around 1250 first?
i have... UJ with a potential of target 107.xx next year ...Before 123.xx.
at least 112.7x.
  • #22,438
  • Dec 16, 2016 6:20am Dec 16, 2016 6:20am
U/CAD... worked well on channel and BREAKOUT.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,439
  • Dec 16, 2016 12:37pm Dec 16, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Can you post a chart for your count for EU till 1,08xx?

unfortunately the recent situation is very unclear and open to multiple interpretations


The problem is the extrem sentiment in various instruments right now as I have detailed above.

Looking at my chart below, you can see, that we could be in a wave 3 down now. But then there is the sideways/upways action since yesterday, which already shows overlap into the wave from the 067 top to the 468 low on Wednesday.

Either we are seeing here the buildup of many 1-2 moves, which most of the time is the wrong solution to the puzzle, or we are simply down in a corrective pattern. Maybe we are in a bigger B-wave down of an ABC flat. The fib-metrics would fit for that.


I can not stress enough: this is definitively a very dangerous place to start new positions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 54 KB
  • #22,440
  • Dec 16, 2016 12:56pm Dec 16, 2016 12:56pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...s-inside-leak-


right on
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