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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #9,321
  • Dec 13, 2016 7:58am Dec 13, 2016 7:58am
Quoting hal7
You are asking for the red highlighter Lem. {image} I threw caution to the wind here on the GBP above yesterday's high. Did not give it a second thought, or a first one for that matter. +5 and counting, profit locked. I have begun tracking those moves above the previous days hi lo. Over 9 pairs. No conclusions yet, and may not be for this thread, but yesterday was 515 pips. "The truth is you want risk. Your want some risk in your life. Risk is where the life is." - Rob Bell
You just made me snort tea down my nose...
  • #9,322
  • Dec 13, 2016 8:01am Dec 13, 2016 8:01am
Quoting hal7
You are asking for the red highlighter Lem. {image} I threw caution to the wind here on the GBP above yesterday's high. Did not give it a second thought, or a first one for that matter. +5 and counting, profit locked. I have begun tracking those moves above the previous days hi lo. Over 9 pairs. No conclusions yet, and may not be for this thread, but yesterday was 515 pips. "The truth is you want risk. Your want some risk in your life. Risk is where the life is." - Rob Bell
Is this not what gives such weight to the 1-2-3 method? There are definitely a couple of pairs that love to top-and-tail the day with a big move, sometimes even over a couple of days. However, that can be taken over to the 1-2-3 thread for discussion.
  • #9,323
  • Dec 13, 2016 8:35am Dec 13, 2016 8:35am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,324
  • Dec 13, 2016 9:05am Dec 13, 2016 9:05am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,325
  • Dec 13, 2016 9:11am Dec 13, 2016 9:11am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,326
  • Dec 13, 2016 9:31am Dec 13, 2016 9:31am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,327
  • Dec 13, 2016 9:39am Dec 13, 2016 9:39am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,328
  • Dec 13, 2016 9:49am Dec 13, 2016 9:49am
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Have you remembered to count candles?
How many RED H1 candles in a row?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,329
  • Dec 13, 2016 10:39am Dec 13, 2016 10:39am
heads to the sky EU
  • #9,330
  • Dec 13, 2016 10:45am Dec 13, 2016 10:45am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,331
  • Dec 13, 2016 11:03am Dec 13, 2016 11:03am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,332
  • Dec 13, 2016 11:59am Dec 13, 2016 11:59am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,333
  • Dec 13, 2016 12:36pm Dec 13, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting lemercenaire
I'm putting this one up kind of out of curiosity as to what will happen.

Now, as I said, this is a talking-shop topic for us today for anyone who is interested. Rules is rules, for sure. However a few of us here will take other factors into account. So, where does one draw the line (no pun intended, lol). Who would take the trade? Any thoughts?
Missed your challenge last night.

I am now taking the opposite approach - less analysis, not more.

HOLO has taught me that the hourly opening price is quite unstable (as you also inferred when you described your initial exposure to the ideas in this thread).

The bigger the move on a pair in the previous hour, the more unstable.

I now just take 5 pips from the biggest moving pair(s) at it retraces - regardless of HOLO most of the time, it is now just another signal, like counting the number of hourly candles of the same colour in a row.
  • #9,334
  • Dec 13, 2016 12:56pm Dec 13, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Missed your challenge last night. I am now taking the opposite approach - less analysis, not more. HOLO has taught me that the hourly opening price is quite unstable (as you also inferred when you described your initial exposure to the ideas in this thread). The bigger the move on a pair in the previous hour, the more unstable. I now just take 5 pips from the biggest moving pair(s) at it retraces - regardless of HOLO most of the time, it is now just another signal, like counting the number of hourly candles...
Let us see a chart or 2 marked with your entry and exit.
Thanks.
Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #9,335
  • Dec 13, 2016 1:16pm Dec 13, 2016 1:16pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Missed your challenge last night. I am now taking the opposite approach - less analysis, not more. HOLO has taught me that the hourly opening price is quite unstable (as you also inferred when you described your initial exposure to the ideas in this thread). The bigger the move on a pair in the previous hour, the more unstable. I now just take 5 pips from the biggest moving pair(s) at it retraces - regardless of HOLO most of the time, it is now just another signal, like counting the number of hourly candles of the same colour in a row.
Hi ikdenk. The purpose of the post was to maybe make you guys think a little more, there was no pressure to actually go down a more analytical route. Sometimes it can be useful in that if you are faced with, say, three set-ups and you know you can't get them all - which one do you concentrate on? A little background look-see can make all the difference to that decision-making process.

You are right in the inherent instability of the Top of the Hour and this of course plays right into HOLO's hands (and 1-2-3 of course). Pippy and I have also looked at standalone Top of the Hour methods, so you are certainly barking up the right tree!

For the record, this is how that chart from earlier looks now. The crossed magenta lines are where we were previously (and bagged our +1).

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As you can see, price did continue to push up before showing - as TS has done above as well - that patience does indeed pay off as you could have bagged your pips via either HOLO as TS or a 1-2-3.

Looking back at the Daily shows a remarkably similar picture to this morning and so sets us up for a rerun tomorrow.

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  • #9,336
  • Dec 13, 2016 1:35pm Dec 13, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Let us see a chart or 2 marked with your entry and exit. Thanks. Cheers!
Here are two trades on usdjpy. (I often jump the gun in the last five minutes of the hourly candle)

Also the indicator I use to select the pairs to trade.
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  • #9,337
  • Dec 14, 2016 4:49am Dec 14, 2016 4:49am
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My object lesson of the day. Of course today is FOMC in the afternoon. I expect markets to be relatively flat ahead of that, or not. The Fed is "expected" to raise rate a fraction of a point which they have been threatening for the better part of a year, and the world as we know it will come to an end, or not.

So I hop out of bed this morning and launch into this EU trade. You don't see it to the left but it had plummeted about 50 pips I think. Is that a freight train? Or a bullet train. Undaunted in I went, red arrow. And waited and waited and waited. I was over on the sofa reading in July (that is where I am at in the thread) exchange between TooSlow and gastonbrmex. Seems a number of traders had had rough day swimming against the tide. TooSlow pointed out that sometimes when a trade is not going your way you might need to make a decision to protect profit. So I thought about that and it made sense, but I also thought then I would be bailing out with a lot of trades also. So I stopped thinking.

As you will see over the course of many minutes the trade when right to my 5 pip target, dotted line, and then what. Didn't get it again. So I waited some more.

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And then it got it. Not sure I got it but it was an interesting experience. This one worked, sometimes I suspect they won't because price goes up and down. So I went back to reading the thread in July.
  • #9,338
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:28am Dec 14, 2016 6:28am
Trade #2

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  • #9,339
  • Dec 14, 2016 6:41am Dec 14, 2016 6:41am
Trade #2 SL hit at BE+1

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  • #9,340
  • Dec 14, 2016 7:12am Dec 14, 2016 7:12am
Quoting scottlhh
Trade #2 SL hit at BE+1 {image}
Hi scottlhh. Take a look at this wide-shot...'ain't she pretty? Notice anything that might have helped you make a decision a touch earlier when price had stalled and begun to turn in your trade?

Now, you did absolutely nothing wrong in following the rules as set out - especially if you are following the 10-Trade challenge but these things are the kind of messages you need to start learning and storing away in the memory-bank for later.

Well done - on to the next!

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